Sydney Retail Market Report September 2016
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Sydney Impact Report Retail Market September Quarter 2016 POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR RETAIL INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Despites the interest rate cuts in May and July this year, retail figures do not indicate that the retailing sector has been dramatically affected. Seasonally adjusted Retail Statistics 2 figures indicate that there was a growth of 0.4% in retail turnover figures in August, the largest monthly rise since January of this year. Furthermore, a modest growth of 2.6% was recorded for the twelve months to August 2016. However, National Online Retail 2 Australia Bank did highlight that the wholesale and retail sectors have been subdued for the past six months, and requires close monitoring in conjunction with Investment Activity 3 business confidence measures as its sluggish growth is a cause for concern for business confidence in the near future. Disappointing consumption growth was also recorded in the second quarter’s National Account, reiterating the fact that Development Activity 5 trading conditions have eased. The next year will bring strong demand for retail assets, highlighting the low Economic Fundamentals 6 vacancy environment and increased tenant demand. Sydney CBD will be highly sought after, as with regional assets around New South Wales. Sales of retail assets About Preston Rowe Paterson 8 have slowed down in the Sydney Metropolitan area during the September quarter, highlighting the fact the low in supply of quality stock in the market up for sale. As we enter a period of historically low interest rates, it is reasonable to assume that Contact Us 10 stocks will increase in the near future in order for investors to reap in the benefits of this low interest rate environment. Phone: +61 2 9292 7400 1 Fax: +61 2 9292 7404 Address: Level 14, 347 Kent Street Sydney NSW 2000 Email: [email protected] Follow us: Visit www.prpsydney.com.au to follow us © Copyright Preston Rowe Paterson NSW Pty Limited RETAIL STATISTICS In saying that, both sectors experienced positive year on year growths, with Clothing & footwear increasing by 8.62% and Other retailing increasing by 1.18% over the year. The only de- cline over the year to August stemmed from Department stores, which suffered an annual loss of -1.84% in sales. Source: ABS/Preston Rowe Paterson Research 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Aug-2015 Nov-2015 Feb-2016 May-2016 Aug-2016 -2% Turnover figures for September is not currently available, hence Change Monthly we will use the latest figures from August to analyse the retail -4% conditions in New South Wales. According to the Bureau of -6% Statistics, New South Wales achieved a total turnover of $8084.9 million over the month of August, an increase of 0.48% over the -8% month. Over quarter, this figure reflects a slight decline of 0.09%, -10% however when we look at it on a year-on-year basis, turnover Food Retailing Household goods Clothing, Footwear Department Stores Other Retailing Cafe, Restaurants had increased by 3.40% from August 2015. New South Wales did better than the rest of the nation, with the country’s overall retail Chart 2 – New South Wales Turnover % Monthly Change – Source ABS sales increasing by 0.4% over the month. Source: ABS/Preston Rowe Paterson Research 9,000 4.0 Online Retail 3.5 8,000 3.0 The Australian & New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 2.5 (ANZSIC) defines ‘retail trade’ as “the purchase and on-selling, 7,000 2.0 commission-based buying, and commission-based selling of 1.5 goods, without significant information, to the general public”. 6,000 1.0 0.5 The NAB Online Retail Sales Index increased by 0.5% over the 5,000 0.0 month to August. In saying this, we highlight that year on year -0.5 growth has substantially slowed down over the past few 4,000 -1.0 months, as the year to August recorded growth of 0.5%, a slight Retail Turnover $ million$ Turnover Retail -1.5 (%) Change Percentage Monthly moderation when compared to June’s annual growth of 0.9%. 3,000 -2.0 NAB’s estimates suggest that domestic consumers have -2.5 collectively spent approximately 20.6 billion over the twelve 2,000 -3.0 months to August 2016– equivalent to 6.9% of spending on traditional retailers (according to figures from the ABS). Jul-15 Jul-16 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jun-15 Jun-16 Oct-14 Oct-15 Apr-15 Apr-16 Sep-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Dec-14 Dec-15 Aug-15 Aug-14 Aug-16 Nov-14 Nov-15 Mar-15 Mar-16 May-16 May-15 New South Wales Total (Industry) Turnover % Monthly Change Notably, annual growth improved in August ( when compared Chart 1 – New South Wales Retail Turnover – Source ABS to June’s figures) in Fashion (11.1%), Groceries & liquor (7.8%) and Homeware and appliances A variety of results were recorded for different retail sectors (3.5%). Contrastingly, There was a within New South Wales during August. Over the month, Food slowdown in sales in Food retailing, Household goods, Department stores and Café & catering, Media and Games & restaurants all experienced positive growths in their turnover toys, which recorded slower data. Department store fared the best, recording a monthly growths of 26%, 24% and 18% increase in sales of 4.95%, followed by Food retailing at 0.81% respectively when compared to and Café & restaurant at 0.63%. Over the month, Clothing & June’s 48.5%, 33.9% and 36.4%. footwear and Other retailing experienced declines, of -0.24% and -1.78% respectively. Phone: +61 2 9292 7400 Fax: +61 2 9292 7404 Address: Level 14, 347 Kent Street Sydney NSW 2000 2 Email: [email protected] Follow us: Visit www.prpsydney.com.au to follow us 2 © Copyright Preston Rowe Paterson NSW Pty Limited RETAIL MARKET Analysis of the Property Council of Australia’s (PCA) Shopping Centre Directory has revealed the following definitions of the eight core classifications of shopping centres; 1. City Centre—Retail premises within an arcade or mall development with a total gross lettable area exceeds 1,000 sqm. 2. Super Regional Centre—A major shopping centre which typically includes two full line department stores, two supermarkets, one or more full line discount department stores and approximately 250 specialty shops. Total gross lettable area exceeds 85,000 sqm. 3. Major Regional Centre—A major shopping centre with at least one full line department store, one or more full line discount department stores, a supermarket and approximately 150 specialty shops. Total gross lettable area ranges between 50,000 & 85,000 sqm. 4. Regional Centre—A shopping centre with one full line department store, a full line discount departments store, supermarket and approximately 100 specialty shops. Total gross lettable area ranges between 30,000 & 50,000 sqm. 5. Sub-Regional Centre—A medium sized shopping centre with at least one full discount department store, major supermarket and approximately 40 specialty shops. Total gross lettable area ranges between 10,000 & 30,000 sqm. 6. Neighbourhood Centre—A local shopping centre comprising a supermarket and approximately 35 specialty shops. Total gross lettable area is less than 10,000 sqm. 7. Outlet Centre— A medium to large sized shopping centre which does not normally include a department store, discount department store or supermarket. Comprises of specialty shops often selling stock at discounted prices including samples, seconds ad discontinued lines. 8. Bulky Goods Centre— A medium to large sized shopping centre dominated by bulky goods retailers (furniture, white goods and other home wares), occupying large areas to display merchandise. Typically contain a small number of specialty shops. Total gross net lettable area retail is generally greater than 5,000 sqm. Investment Activity Preston Rowe Paterson Research recorded a number of significant retail sales in New South Wales over six months to September 2016. Sale Reported GLAR Centre Address Sale Price Vendor Purchaser $/sqm Type Date Yield (sqm) Fortius Funds MidCity Pitt Street Mall, Sydney NSW 2000 $ 320,000,000.00 May-16 4.60% NGI Investments 9,426 $ 45,265.00 City Centre Management Sub Regional Vicinity Centres Portfolio NSW/VIC/QLD $ 851,300,000.00 May-16 7.00% Vicinity Centres Blackstone/Mirvac Group 172,757 $ 4,928.00 Centres Sub Regional Scentre Portfolio NSW/QLD $ 655,000,000.00 May-16 7.00% Scentre Group Blackstone 123,718 $ 5,294.00 Centres Marketfair Campbelltown 4 Tindall Street, Campbelltown Enclosed Retail $ 48,250,000.00 Aug-16 6.50% Private owner APOF II 9,094 $ 2,098.00 Mall NSW 2560 Centre 77 Market Street, Sydney NSW Scentre Group/Cbus Enclosed Retail David Jones $ 360,000,000.00 Aug-16 4.50% Woolworths Holdings 9,427 $ 32,030.00 2000 Fund Centre 271 Queen Street, Campbelltown Enclosed Retail Campbelltown Mall $ 197,000,000.00 Sep-16 6.00% Perron Investments Charter Hall Group 42,200 $ 4,668.00 NSW 2560 Centre 37 Epping Road, Macquarie 37 Epping Road, Macquarie Park Bulky Goods $ 34,000,000.00 Sep-16 7-8.00% Abacus Property Groups CorVal 8,010 $ 4,245.00 Park NSW 2113 NSW 2113 Centre Enclosed Retail Edgecliff Centre Edgecliff NSW 2027 $ 138,750,000.00 Sep-16 3.72% Private owner Longhurst Group 10,845 $ 12,794.00 Centre 124 Campbell Parade, 124 Campbell Parade, Bondi Beach Rebel Property Group/ $ 19,120,000.00 Sep-16 ~3.00% private investor 335 $ 57,058.00 Neighbourhood Bondi Beach NSW 2026 NSW 2026 Eduard Litver/Gil Baron Table 1—Retail Centre Sales Transactions - Source - Preston Rowe Paterson Research Phone: +61 2 9292 7400 Fax: +61 2 9292 7404 Address: Level 14, 347 Kent Street Sydney NSW 2000 3 Email: [email protected] Follow us: Visit www.prpsydney.com.au to follow us 3 © Copyright Preston Rowe Paterson NSW