What is Going on with Autonomous Vehicles?

Chris Schwarz National Advanced Driving Simulator

April 21, 2017 What Do We Do? . Research/assess new vehicle technology with local human subject population . Provide data to regulatory agencies and industry . Research partnerships with researchers at UI and around the world NADS-1 Dome in Bay

NADS-2 with Freightliner Heavy Truck Cab NADS MiniSim NADS MiniSim™ Partners (Green=Vehicles, Blue=Heavy Trucks, Red=Both)

United Tribes University of Wisconsin Michigan Tech. University Transport Technical College Madison of Toronto Canada Univ of Windsor • Univ of Washington • (2) • Battelle • Univ of Michigan • Hyundai University of • Honda Chicago University of Idaho

Iowa State Univ. Hartford Hospital Institute Garmin International for Living (2) Honda Research Institute University of NADS, UI College Kentucky NHTSA, of Medicine, and US DOT Library Science Clemson CSU San Georgia Tech. (2) University Bernardino (6) Highland Driving MBA Ethanol (BP) Florida State Overseas Systems: U. of Texas-Austin University Cognitive Research • DGIST, S. Korea (visuals) University of South Florida Corporation (9) • GM, Israel NHTSA statistics show the problem we face • In 2014, 32,675 people were killed in vehicle crashes on US roads • NHTSA (2015), 2014 Crash Data Key Findings (Traffic Safety Facts. DOT HS 812 219). Washington, DC • Crash data suggests that up to 93% of crashes are caused by human error • NHTSA (2008), National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (Report to Congress No. DOT HS 811 059). Washington, DC The safety benefits arithmetic for automated vehicles is simple – and complicated

• # crashes reduced = # crashes prevented by AVs - # crashes caused by AVs • Automated vehicles should be able to eliminate many crashes caused by human error (93% of all crashes) • Distraction, drowsiness, intoxicated, etc. • What are the kinds of crashes that will be caused by automated vehicles? • failures • Transfer of control • Mode confusion • Misuse and abuse A Brief History of Automated Vehicles An early experiment on automatic highways was conducted by RCA and the state of Nebraska on a 400 foot strip of public highway just outside Lincoln (“Electronic Highway of the Future - Science Digest (Apr, 1958)” 2013) The National Automated Highway System was researched and demonstrated in the 1990s 1994-1997

A demonstration of the automated highway system in San Diego (1997). University of PATH Program The DARPA Grand Challenge proved the concept of unmanned autonomous vehicles

Grand Challenge: Urban Grand Challenge 2004 – no winner 2007 – Boss (CMU) 2005 – (Stanford) The Google self-driving car disrupted the industry in 2010 with their announcement of an automated vehicle Daimler announced the world’s first self- driving semi in 2015 News from April 2017!

AV State of the Art Are automated vehicles an evolution or a revolution?

Evolution Revolution • “Something • “Everything Everywhere” Somewhere” SAE J3016 Levels of Automation Taxonomy Operational design domains today and into the future There are other dimensions to consider Different challenges of automation will peak at different levels

• Level 2 doesn’t allow disengagement, but it invites it • Level 3 allows it, but still requires timely take overs Transfers of control can become safety critical events for automated vehicles

Expected Unexpected Lower to Higher Button press Collision avoidance Higher to Lower Grab wheel Automation failure NADS AV Study: Work Zone Event NADS AV Study: Results

• Drivers are vulnerable after taking control from high automation levels The Future of Automated Vehicles There is a bold vision for the future of mobility

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Connected & Automated Intersections Connected & Automated Intersections: Driver’s View company capability year Audi fully autonomous 2017 NVIDIA level 4 2018 Autonomous driverless 2018 Delphi & Mobileye self-driving system 2019 Car Forecasts VW self driving 2019 Audi level 5 2020 NuTonomy self-driving taxis in 10 cities 2020 GM self driving 2020 Ford level 4 2020 Toyota auto-highway 2020 Ford level 5 2021 Nissan fully autonomous 2020 BMW electric self-driving 2021 self-driving mass Baidu production 2021 Intel driverless 2022 Tesla level 5 2023 Jaguar & Lane-Rover fully autonomous 2024 Daimler fully autonomous 2025 driverless cars all over USDOT world 2025 Continental fully autonomous 2025 Uber driverless fleet 2030 Insurance Information 2028- Institute fully autonomous 2032 IEEE 75% autonomous 2040 Source: driverless-future.com Future Challenges Remain

• Infrastructure • Testing & Certification • Weather • Job loss • Cities • Mobility for elderly, • Aftermarket disabled, young • Insurance • Ethical dilemmas • Financial Services • Energy We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. - Bill Gates Advanced Vehicle Technology in Iowa From the National Safety Council and the University of Iowa… HERE High Definition Map

NADS Research Vehicles

Tesla Model S 75D Volvo XC-90 Thank you! Questions?