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Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan

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Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan Public Opinion Poll Residents of Kyrgyzstan February 21 – March 5, 2021 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute's Center for Insights in Survey Research by SIAR Research and Consulting. • Data were collected between February 21 – March 5, 2021, through computer-assisted telephone interviews administered via mobile and landline numbers. • The sample consisted of n=1,200 residents of Kyrgyzstan, aged 18 and older. • A multi-stage sampling method was used to design a nationally representative sample according to the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic's 2019 Demographic Yearbook of the Kyrgyz Republic (January 1, 2019). The sample was stratified by oblast/city and urbanicity. • An initial database of mobile and landline numbers was assembled that comprised two separate sources. Two- thirds of the database's numbers are sourced from SIAR's proprietary database of previous survey participant phone numbers. SIAR's database is derived from phone numbers collected during nationally-representative surveys conducted throughout the past twelve months. The remaining third of the database's phone numbers are randomly generated from operators' area codes at the time of this study. Numbers were randomly selected from the combined database. • The respondent selection methodology depended on the type of line used to contact respondents. For mobile numbers, the mobile phone user is selected. For landline numbers shared by multiple individuals, the last birthday protocol is used for randomized respondent selection. • The data is weighted by age and gender according to the 2019 Demographic Yearbook of the Kyrgyz Republic. • The response rate for the survey was 47 percent. • The margin of error at the mid-range of the full sample does not exceed ±2.8 points at the 95 percent confidence level. • Interviews were conducted in Kyrgyz (80 percent), Russian (18 percent), and Uzbek (2 percent). • Cited bases are weighted. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2 Frequently Cited Disaggregates Disaggregate Disaggregation Category Base Bishkek City n=209 Chui Oblast n=183 Issyk-Kul Oblast n=92 Naryn Oblast n=52 Oblast/City Talas Oblast n=47 Osh Oblast n=241 Jalal-Abad Oblast n=223 Batken Oblast n=95 Osh City n=58 Urban n=422 Urbanicity Rural n=778 Men n=583 Gender Women n=617 Age 18-35 n=613 Age Groups Age 36-55 n=381 Age 56 and older n=206 Democracy is best n=639 View on Democracy Other forms of government are equal n=345 “Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for Other forms of government are better n=175 our country?" *Cited bases are weighted. Margin of error will vary with sample size n 3 Geographical Key: 7 Oblasts and 2 Cities Bishkek City Issyk-Kul Oblast Chui Oblast Bishkek City Talas Oblast Jalal-Abad Oblast Naryn Oblast Osh Oblast Osh City Osh City Batken Oblast 4 National Outlook In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? All Respondents 70% 25% 5% Age Groups Age 18-35 70% 24% 6% Age 36-55 66% 29% 4% Age 56 and older 75% 22% 4% Gender Men 70% 26% 4% Women 70% 24% 6% Urbanicity Urban 62% 34% 5% Rural 74% 20% 5% Oblast/City Bishkek City 52% 42% 6% Chui Oblast 75% 23% 2% Issyk-Kul Oblast 63% 20% 17% Naryn Oblast 75% 25% Talas Oblast 56% 44% Osh Oblast 80% 16% 4% Jalal-Abad Oblast 74% 20% 6% Batken Oblast 68% 26% 6% Osh City 78% 20% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 6 In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? 100% 90% 80% 70% 65% 65% 66% 70% 62% 63% 63% 60% 59% 60% 58% 57% 56% 54% 52% 52% 58% 58% 50% 52% 53% 48%49% 50% 48% 45% 47% 43% 47% 40% 45% 44% 39% 41% 39% 39%39% 36% 37% 38% 38% 36% 30% 30% 33% 29% 30% 25% 31% 29% 28% 28% 27% 25% 20% 23% 23% 17% 10% 14% 14% 13% 12% 12%11% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 8% 10% 12% 5% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 0% 7% Jul-15 Apr-05 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-14 Sep-11 Mar-06 Mar-16 Mar-17 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Aug-12 Aug-20 Dec-19 Dec-20 Nov-07 Nov-10 Nov-17 Nov-18 May-07 May-09 May-10 May-11 Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer Feb/Mar-21 *Note: Comparison between polls in August 2020 or after and polls before August 2020 should be treated with caution due to differing methodologies. The polls done before August 2020 were conducted via face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. 7 In general, would you say that our country is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? (Disaggregated by respondents’ views on democracy) View on Democracy Democracy is best 76% 20% 4% Other forms of government are equal 68% 28% 4% Other forms of government are better 56% 38% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 8 How would you describe the current economic situation in your household? All Respondents 9% 66% 21% 4%<1% Age Groups Age 18-35 13% 66% 18% 2%<1% Age 36-55 6% 67% 23% 5% Age 56 and older 4% 63% 26% 6% Gender Men 11% 65% 22% 3% <1% Women 8% 66% 21% 5% Urbanicity Urban 6% 63% 24% 6%<1% Rural 11% 67% 20% 2%<1% Oblast/City Bishkek City 6% 58% 26% 10% <1% Chui Oblast 3% 77% 19% 2% Issyk-Kul Oblast 3% 61% 4% Naryn Oblast 4% 81% 15% Talas Oblast 2% 64% 32% 2% Osh Oblast 22% 60% 15% 3% <1% Jalal-Abad Oblast 11% 64% 24% 1% Batken Oblast 6% 65% 23% 5% Osh City 7% 85% 5% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer 9 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted) Unemployment 59% Corruption 50% Cost of living/High prices 48% Education 28% COVID-19/Coronavirus 27% Migration 23% Healthcare 22% Economy—other/general 18% Poverty 17% Social services/Benefits/Pensions 17% Housing 13% Internal conflicts 12% Agriculture 10% Infrastructure 9% Small business opportunities/Access to loans 8% Water 6% Crime/Public Safety 6% Environment 5% Solve border/Customs problems 5% External debts 5% Low wages 3% Electricity 2% Political instability 2% Illicit drugs 2% Other 9% No problem <1% Don't know/Refused to answer <1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% *Responses receiving less than 2% are collapsed into Other. 10 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; Top 10 responses displayed) All Respondents Bishkek City Unemployment 59% Cost of living/High prices 60% Corruption 50% Unemployment 40% Cost of living/High prices 48% Corruption 25% Education 28% Social services 16% COVID-19/Coronavirus 27% Education 14% Migration 23% Poverty 12% Healthcare 22% Low wages 11% Economy—other/general 18% Healthcare 11% Poverty 17% Internal conflicts 9% Social services 17% Political instability 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Chui Oblast Issyk-Kul Oblast Cost of living/High prices 67% Unemployment 50% Unemployment 62% Corruption 39% Corruption 46% Healthcare 36% COVID-19/Coronavirus 38% Cost of living/High prices 32% Economy—other/general 31% Education 29% Education 30% COVID-19/Coronavirus 25% Poverty 25% Social services 18% Healthcare 24% Migration 12% Social services 12% Agriculture 11% Border/Customs problems 9% Poverty 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% *Social services includes mentions of benefits and pensions. 11 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; Top 10 responses displayed) All Respondents Naryn Oblast Unemployment 59% Cost of living/High prices 73% Corruption 50% Unemployment 57% Cost of living/High prices 48% Corruption 56% Education 28% Social services 46% COVID-19/Coronavirus 27% Economy—other/general 44% Migration 23% Healthcare 32% Healthcare 22% Education 27% Economy—other/general 18% Agriculture 22% Poverty 17% Migration 17% Social services 17% External debts 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jalal-Abad Oblast Talas Oblast Unemployment 75% Cost of living/high prices 82% Corruption 57% Corruption 71% Migration 43% Social services 67% Cost of living/High prices 37% Unemployment 66% Education 32% Economy—other/general 62% COVID-19/Coronavirus 24% Healthcare 57% Housing 23% Education 45% Internal conflicts 22% Agriculture 40% Healthcare 20% Migration 30% Poverty 12% Crime/Public Safety 22% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% *Social services includes mentions of benefits and pensions. 12 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous response; multiple responses permitted; Top 10 responses displayed) All Respondents Osh City Unemployment 59% COVID-19/Coronavirus 67% Corruption 50% Corruption 63% Cost of living/High prices 48% Unemployment 53% Education 28% Housing 44% COVID-19/Coronavirus 27% Economy—other/general 38% Migration 23% Internal conflicts 33% Healthcare 22% Cost of living/High prices 30% Economy—other/general 18% Migration 27% Poverty 17% Small business opportunities 17% Social services 17% Education 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Batken Oblast Osh Oblast Unemployment 73% Corruption 62% Cost of living/High prices 63% Unemployment 59% Corruption 53% COVID-19/Coronavirus 35% Economy—other/general 41% Migration 33% Social services 40% Education 30% Poverty 36% Cost of living/High prices 26% Education 36% Poverty 20% Migration 35% Water 17% COVID-19/Coronavirus 34% Infrastructure 16% Healthcare 33% Housing 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% *Social services includes mentions of benefits and pensions, Small business opportunities includes mentions of access to loans.
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