Research Drivers and scenarios futures for the next decade Full report www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier-research-futures-report A study by Elsevier and Ipsos MORI Published February 2019 2 CONTENTS Contents Foreword - Alexander van Boetzelaer, EVP of Strategy, Elsevier 4 Introduction to the study 5 Visual overview of the study 6 Introducing the scenarios 8 Brave open world 10 Tech titans 16 Eastern ascendance 22 Conclusion – what we learned and Elsevier’s plans 28 Essay one: Funding the future 31 Essay two: Pathways to open science 49 Essay three: How researchers work: change ahead 66 Essay four: Technology: revolution or evolution 83 Essay five: Building the future research information system 106 Essay six: The academy and beyond 119 Methodology 136 Acknowledgements 139 3 FOREWORD Foreword It’s not enough to think about the future – you have to build it At Elsevier, we have constantly pushed boundaries in our efforts to support researchers. From helping exiled German scientists in the late ‘30s to publish their works, to pioneering the digital dissemination of journals on ScienceDirect; we’ve never been afraid to take bold steps. We are currently on the cusp of a new era, one that will likely transform the research information system. Drawing on our roots in publishing, we are creating analytical solutions to serve the needs of science and health. Whatever the future holds, by applying technological and data expertise, we will continue with our mission to help institutions and professionals advance scientific knowledge and health care. We also recognize that it has never been more important to collaborate closely with research institutes, funders and other information providers, enabling a quicker response to genuine needs faced by those in the field. To equip us all with the knowledge required to navigate the opportunities – and challenges – that lie ahead, we have partnered with Ipsos MORI to examine the research landscape in detail, both what is happening and what could happen in the decade to come. In this report, we share with you the insights we’ve gleaned from a great variety of stakeholders. Focusing on a single potential outcome is problematic. Instead, we’ve thought about a number of possible, plausible futures. Our goal is that these scenarios will fuel considered, controlled decisions. Our founding motto remains apt: Non Solus – Not Alone. By working together today, we can shape a more positive tomorrow. Please do contact us with your thoughts and ideas – you can find out how in the conclusion. We look forward to hearing from you soon. Alexander van Boetzelaer EVP of Strategy, Elsevier 4 INTRODUCTION Introduction Why we did this project The interviews and literature review sketched a picture of the many interrelated trends; taken together with the Rarely in the history of science, technology and medicine researcher survey, they helped us identify the factors most have we witnessed such rapid and profound change. likely to drive change, a summarized version of which Advances in technology, funding pressures, political can be found in the visual overview on pages 6 to 7. We uncertainty, population shifts, societal challenges on took these 19 key drivers, grouped them into themes, and a global scale; these elements are all combining – in turned them into the six essays you’ll find on pages 31 to uncertain ways – to transform how research information 135. The essays explain why each driver could potentially is created and exchanged. cause seismic change and how that change might come The ability of the research community to thrive in this new to pass. world will depend on understanding the opportunities However, looking at each of the key drivers in isolation, or and the challenges these changes offer and what steps even linking them to a theme, wasn’t enough to provide need to be taken now. the insights we were seeking. So, during 2018, we held To assess how today’s trends might shape the research several creative workshops and invited external experts landscape in the decade ahead, Elsevier joined forces to join us. In the workshops we used the key drivers to with Ipsos MORI, the global market and opinion develop plausible future scenarios, all set a decade from research specialist. Together, we conducted a large-scale, now, which we ultimately reduced to three – you can find future-scoping and scenario-planning study. The focus these on pages 10 to 27. of this study was not which topics will be researched 10 Along with the 19 key drivers and the six essays, the years from now, but rather how that research might be three scenarios form the key findings of this study. conducted and its findings communicated. In the conclusion, on pages 28 to 30, we look at the What we did implications of these scenarios and the plans that Elsevier is putting in place in response to this study. We We reviewed the literature and examined market drivers. also invite you to join us. And we have created a webpage Critically, we interviewed expert stakeholders to gather on Elsevier.com1 where we will continue to monitor the their views and elicited the opinions of researchers. market-available data and track progress towards the Over the course of 2018, we talked with 56 experts from scenarios we’ve imagined. While no-one knows what the funders and futurists to publishers and technology future holds, our hope is that this report, particularly the experts, and we surveyed more than 2,000 researchers. scenarios, will help us all understand the implications We started all our expert interviews with the same of the decisions we make today and ensure we are well question – if you could discover one thing about the world placed to meet the future – whatever it brings. of research 10 years from now, what would you want to know? This helped participants to focus on the questions and challenges already keeping them up at night, and identify issues likely to increase in importance over the coming decade. 1 www.elsevier.com/connect/elsevier-research-futures-report 5 VISUAL OVERVIEW VISUAL OVERVIEW Building a guide to the future Together, the drivers, essays and scenarios form the key findings of this study. A visual overview of the study DISCOVERY PHASE ANALYSIS PHASE SCENARIO BUILDING PHASE Step 4 Step 1 19 key drivers were identified, each of which THEME FOUR: Technology: revolution LITERATURE REVIEW is expected to shape developments in the or evolution? WORKSHOPS decade to come. These drivers (abbreviated 10. Big data is fast becoming the lifeblood Comprehensive review of the versions of which are listed below), have of nearly all research Three one-day workshops were published literature. been grouped into six themes. 11. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine- held with internal and external u Visit Mendeley2 to explore the learning tools are changing the shape experts. Attendees considered how references used in this report u Find the comprehensive versions of the drivers of science the 19 key drivers might influence and their associated essays on pages 31 to 135. 12. Blockchain has the potential to facilitate research. open science, but the technology is The result: Three credible scenarios, THEME ONE: Funding the future still in its infancy and may not fulfil each imagining what the future 1. The funding mix is changing; public its promise might look like a decade from now. funders will have less influence over 13. Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality research priorities (VR) will become key learning tools for a 2. China is stepping up the funding and number of institutes Step 2 production of research 3. The research agenda is changing; EXPERT INTERVIEWS there is an increased focus on making THEME FIVE: Building the future Scenario one: research accessible research information system Brave open world Interviews with 56 technology, 14. The role of the journal is transforming to State and philanthropic funders align in their research and publishing experts meet modern needs goals, approaches and principles, resulting around the globe. THEME TWO: Pathways to open science 15. The article structure is evolving and new in open science taking off, aided by artificial u See who we interviewed in the 4. Research grants will increasingly have forms will become the norm intelligence-enabled technologies. Acknowledgements on page 139 open science conditions attached 16. The measurement system will become 5. Researchers are expected to spearhead even more critical adoption of open science, but not without experiencing conflicts of interests Scenario two: Tech titans 6. Metrics will continue to expand, enabled THEME SIX: The academy and beyond by new technology Technology companies support the research 17. Courses will diversify from a lecture- ecosystem and become knowledge creators focused model and curators in a world where industry funds 18. Higher education institutions are more and more research. THEME THREE: How researchers work: changing structure Step 3 change ahead 19. EdTech will become a serious higher 7. New technologies are expected to education contender RESEARCHER SURVEY transform the researcher workflow over the Scenario three: coming 10 years Eastern ascendance A survey of 2,055 researchers 8. Behaviors and skillsets will change as a China’s growing economic power and worldwide, asking them what they new generation of researchers arrives on focus on research and development (R&D) think the future holds. the scene influences the previously Western-dominated u The full survey results are 9. Collaboration will drive research forward research landscape, resulting in a fragmented 3 available on Mendeley Data world. 2 www.mendeley.com/community/research-futures u Read more about the methodology on pages 136 to 138. 3 https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/w6mj4tmkxp/1 6 7 VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS 8 VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS VISUALIZING THE FUTURE THROUGH SCENARIOS Visualizing the future through scenarios Together, Elsevier and Ipsos MORI used the trends, survey results and expert input to develop three scenarios which explore what the research ecosystem might look like a decade from now: These scenarios are Brave open world, Tech titans and Eastern ascendance.