MAGAZINE Climate effects 6 No. 4 Living on shifting sands 20 2015 THE CIRCLE Impact of forest fires 24 PERMAFROST SLOW-MOTION MELTDOWN

PUBLISHED BY THE WWF GLOBAL ARCTIC PROGRAMME

TheCircle0415.indd 1 27.10.15 14:38 THE CIRCLE 4.2015 PERMAFROST Contents EDITORIAL It’s not permanent 3 IN BRIEF 4 TED SCHUUR Climate effects 6

CIRCUMPOLAR STATUS REPORT 8-19 MIKHAIL ZHELEZNIAK and PAVEL KONSTANTINOV Russia 9 CHRIS BURN Canada 11 JONAS ÅKERMAN Sweden 12 BERND ETZELMÜLLER Norway 13 HANNE HVIDTFELDT CHRISTIANSEN Svalbard (Norway) 15 BERND ETZELMÜLLE Iceland 16 STEPHEN D. GURNEY and JUKKA KÄYHKÖ Finland 17 BO ELBERLING Greenland 18 KENJI YOSHIKAWA United States 19 BRONWYN BENKERT Shifting sands – living on permafrost 20 KEVIN SCHAEFER The tipping point 22 JEAN HOLLOWAY The impact of forest fires 24 FUJUN NIU Building on permafrost in the “Third Pole” 26 THE PICTURE 28

The Circle is published quar- Publisher: Editor in Chief: Clive Tesar, COVER: Houses in Shishmaref, terly by the WWF Global Arctic WWF Global Arctic Programme [email protected] Alaska, collapsing due to coastal ero- Programme. Reproduction and 8th floor, 275 Slater St., Ottawa, sion. The melting of permafrost desta- quotation with appropriate credit ON, Canada K1P 5H9. Managing Editor: Becky Rynor, bilizes the shoreline and makes the are encouraged. Articles by non- Tel: +1 613-232-8706 [email protected] earth more vulnerable to erosion. affiliated sources do not neces- Fax: +1 613-232-4181 Photo: Lawrence Hislop. www.grida.no sarily reflect the views or policies Design and production: of WWF. Send change of address Internet: www.panda.org/arctic Film & Form/Ketill Berger, ABOVE: To create their shelter Alaska and subscription queries to the [email protected] marmots burrow into permafrost soil address on the right. We reserve ISSN 2073-980X = The Circle containing tundra vegetation. the right to edit letters for publica- Printed by St. Joseph Communications Photo: Erin McKittrick, Bretwood Higman, Ground Truth Trekking/ Creative Commons tion, and assume no responsibil- Date of publication: ity for unsolicited material. October 2015. Thank you for your interest in The Circle. Many of our ­subscribers have moved to an e-version. To receive an electronic copy in your email instead of a paper 2 The Circle 4.2015 copy, please write to us at [email protected] and help us reduce our costs and footprint.

TheCircle0415.indd 2 27.10.15 14:38 THE CIRCLE 4.2015 EDITORIAL It’s not permanent

PERMAFROST AROUND THE ARCTIC is changing. It is warm- ers who live in permafrost areas and by governments and ing virtually everywhere as the climate warms, and in industry who must pay for the increasing infrastructure some places, it’s thawing. This edition of The Circle costs associated with development in the Arctic. A report explores why this is happening, what happens when per- by Fujun Niu illustrates how China has made significant mafrost thaws, how it can be mitigated and why the rest advances in building on this increasingly unstable sur- of the world should be concerned about it. face. But why should the rest of the world care? Changes to permafrost occur within the ground so In 2009, a group of international researchers put they’re challenging to track across the vast areas of the together an estimate of how much carbon is stored in Arctic. We can’t easily use satellite remote sensing, for permafrost regions, drawing on samples from around example, to know what is happening. During the last the Arctic. The number was astonishing: 1670 Pg or International Polar Year, scientists from the International about twice the current amount in the Permafrost Association created a snapshot of permafrost atmosphere. Almost all of this carbon is temperatures recorded in boreholes all across the North. currently in cold storage, but the obvious This work is continuing in the Global Terrestrial Network unknown is whether it can be released, on Permafrost (GTN-P) whose goal is to track changing and if so, how much will it contribute to ground temperatures. You will read more about this vital future global warming? The risk is of a research in our Circumpolar Status Report as each Arctic positive feedback loop in which climate nation brings us up to date on warming causes permafrost in their countries. permafrost thaw and Permafrost is warming rapidly WHAT WE KNOW IS DIS- carbon is released ANTONI LEWKOWICZ in the High Arctic and more TURBING BECAUSE PER- into the atmosphere is a Professor in the slowly where it’s already near either as carbon Department of Geog- 0°C with the extra heat entering MAFROST THAW IS LIKE- dioxide or methane raphy at the Univer- the surface being used to change as the previously sity of Ottawa. He has ground ice into water. Because LY TO BE IRREVERSIBLE frozen organic mat- researched permafrost permafrost responds to climate, ter is broken down in the Arctic and Sub- arctic for nearly 40 these trends are predicted to by microbial action. years and is currently continue over the decades to come as the climate warms. As Kevin Schaefer and Ted Schuur report, President of the Inter- Even if it’s out of sight, permafrost has a way of bring- this increases the concentration of green- national Permafrost ing its thermal state to our attention. Numerous massive house gases in the atmosphere which Association. landslides have developed recently in the Peel Plateau leads to further warming and faster thaw of Canada’s Northwest Territories, apparently triggered of permafrost. by greater summer rainfall. Jean Holloway also tells us There has been a great deal of research on the links in about the escalating effects of increasing numbers of for- this permafrost and carbon release chain in recent years, est fires on permafrost. Meanwhile, the northernmost but it would be fair to say the jury is still out. What we 200 km of the Alaska Highway in the Yukon costs mil- know is disturbing because permafrost thaw is likely to lions of dollars per year to maintain because permafrost be irreversible. On the other hand, it takes time to warm is thawing beneath the road; tourists bumping along in and then thaw permafrost so there is still an opportunity their recreational vehicles as well as highway engineers to act. know that these problems keep coming back. Erosion Members of the Arctic Council know that it’s costly to along coasts with ice-rich permafrost appears to be cope with permafrost. But the price paid by the global increasing, threatening communities across the Arctic. community for accelerating permafrost thaw could well But all of these impacts are chiefly felt by the northern- be far greater.

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says researchers calculated The $43 trillion US esti- end exploration off Alaska Thawing economic costs by looking mate is in addition to previ- “for the foreseeable future” at the direct effects on gross ous studies, which have put after it failed to find suffi- permafrost could domestic product, as well the economic impacts of cient amounts of oil and gas as indirect effects “such as climate change at more than in the Burger J well to war- cost $43 trillion losses to ecosystems, inunda- $300 trillion by the year rant further exploration but tion from sea level rise, and 2200. Eighty per cent of eco- it has not given up its Arctic by end of century an increase in the chance of nomic impacts will be felt in leases. “Shell continues to climate catastrophe.” developing countries. see important exploration A NEW STUDY estimates emis- Deaths from heat stroke potential in the basin, and sions from thawing perma- in Europe are one specific the area is likely to ultimately frost will cost US$43 trillion example of the health-related Shell stops Arctic be of strategic importance in lost agriculture, ecosys- effects of thawing perma- to Alaska and the US,” said tems and health impacts by frost. Hope says until this activity after Marvin Odum, president the end of this century. study there have been no of Shell USA.The company The study, released estimates on the cost of those ‘disappointing’ has spent about US $7bn on by Cambridge University and emissions on the economy. Arctic offshore development the National Snow and Ice “This is just one more in the Chukchi and Beaufort Data Centre, says permafrost factor that indicates that tests seas. is believed to contain 1,700 we really need to do some- ROYAL DUTCH SHELL has WWF opposes drilling in gigatonnes – each gigatonne thing,” says researcher Kevin stopped Arctic oil and gas the Chukchi Sea, given the is a billion tonnes – of car- Schaefer, who worked on the exploration off the coast of environmental and cultural bon. When permafrost thaws, project. He says the only way Alaska after “disappointing” values of this pristine and carbon dioxide and methane to stop the permafrost from results from a key well in the complex marine ecosystem, locked inside is released. thawing is to reduce emis- Chukchi Sea. crucial for wildlife, fisheries Co-author Chris Hope sions. The company said it would and local people. “The world

THE GLOBAL Terrestrial allows scientists to check Permafrost data available to all Network for Permafrost has climate model predictions launched a website contain- against observations from ing ground-temperature across the Arctic. The data data that spans the entire can be used in practical Arctic region. This global planning of infrastructure collaboration of universities development in regions with and research institutes ena- permafrost, for example to bles anyone to try their hand study how permafrost reacts at being an Arctic scientist to the construction of build- or engineer. ings or airports when tem- “This is open to the public, peratures change. so anyone can go and play The website includes data with the raw data or look at on ground temperatures in the plots and maps that have permafrost and the thick- already been generated,” ness of the so-called active says Thomas Ingeman- layer, which is the soil layer Nielsen, associate professor above permafrost that thaws at the Arctic Technology in the summer. So far, the Centre at the Technical Uni- scientists have collected data Data sets about ground temprature and maps like this one versity of Denmark. The new going back almost 50 years are found at http://gtnp.arcticportal.org temperature database also from across the Arctic.

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Bearing Witness

WWF HAS commissioned and depicts a polar bear a sculpture by renowned being pierced by a graph of Danish artist Jens Gals- accumulated carbon in the chiot to focus attention atmosphere. on climate change and COP21 will be one of the its consequences for the largest international con- Arctic and its wildlife. The ferences on climate change sculpture will be unveiled ever held, with an expected and exhibited at the annual attendance of close to Conference of Parties 50,000 participants from (COP21) also known as government, intergov- the 2015 Paris Climate ernmental organisations, Conference. The sculpture UN agencies, NGOs and is named ‘Unbearable’ civil society.

needs to stop expending says Gitte Seeberg, Secretary resources trying to extract General of WWF Denmark. New study chronicles four years more fossil fuels from the “Our experience in the Arctic most hostile and remote has shown that having people in the life of walruses places on the planet, and on the ground of the place risking irreversible environ- you are talking about helps WWF-RUSSIA and the Marine known as haulouts. mental damage at the same build dialogue and relation- Mammal Council have com- “To develop measures for time,” said Brad Ack, WWF- ships.” pleted a study of the Atlantic the conservation of the Atlan- US senior vice president for Biologist Kaare Winther walrus population in the Bar- tic walrus, we first needed to oceans, “We urgently need Hansen has lived and worked ents Sea, north of Norway and study them,” Puhova says. to redirect all of that energy in Greenland for several Russia where wildlife is under “Ten years ago, we had very to accelerate our nation’s years and will staff the office growing pressure from devel- little reliable data on the cur- and the world’s transition to in the capital city of Nuuk. opment. rent state of the population a future powered by clean, “I am delighted to repre- “The southeastern part of – only scraps of information renewable energy” sent WWF and participate the Barents Sea is faced with from a single expedition.” in the ongoing debate about the rapid development of ship- the environment, nature and ping and mineral extraction. WWF opens sustainable development All this could put walruses at in Greenland,” she says. “I risk”, says Margarita Puhova, office in look forward to participat- coordinator for marine biodi- ing in discussions on how we versity at WWF Russia. Greenland can develop Greenland for The long-term study used WWF HAS BECOME the first Greenlanders while main- a broad range of existing and global conservation organi- taining traditional livelihoods novel research methods, from zation to open an office in and values.” on-the-ground observations Greenland. WWF has also recently to aerial surveys, satellite tag- “It has always been a top helped fund several projects ging and genetic studies. The priority that the staff we in Greenland including ini- researchers also used highly- employ for our Arctic work tiatives around the Last Ice detailed satellite imagery to n Download the study here: has a thorough knowledge of Area, and a polar bear patrol estimate the size of walrus http://wwf.ru/resources/publ/ Greenland and the Arctic,” in east Greenland. gatherings on land, also book/eng/1016

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TheCircle0415.indd 5 27.10.15 14:38 MELTING PERMAFROST Climate effects

Soils from the northern circumpolar permafrost zone soil is metabolized by bacteria and fungi and transformed into carbon dioxide contain almost twice as much carbon as is currently in the and methane as part of the natural atmosphere. Temperatures in this region are already ris- metabolic cycle of these microorgan- ing twice as fast as the global average and are expected to isms. Carbon dioxide and methane both contain carbon but are produced in keep warming as a result of emissions of carbon from coal, different environments by microorgan- oil, gas and deforestation around the globe. TED SCHUUR isms depending on how much oxygen is says a warmer climate causes permafrost ground to thaw, available. Carbon dioxide and methane are also greenhouse gases, trapping heat and exposes organic carbon to decomposition by soil when released into the atmosphere. microbes. Release of permafrost carbon into the atmosphere by this process has the potential to accelerate climate change, THIS PERMAFROST CARBON is the decom- sands of years. Thawing permafrost making it go faster than we expect based posed remains of plants and animals is like having the power cut to your on projections from human emissions that have accumulated in perennially freezer. Just like frozen food that will alone. frozen ground over hundreds to thou- spoil when thawed, organic carbon in New research has helped solidify the

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TheCircle0415.indd 6 27.10.15 14:38 Still, initial estimates of potential THAWING PERMA- greenhouse gas release point towards FROST IS LIKE HAV- the potential for significant emissions of Carbon from permafrost to the atmo- ING THE POWER CUT sphere in a warmer world. The most recent scientific efforts put the vulner- TO YOUR FREEZER able fraction about 5-15% of the vast permafrost carbon pool in scenarios sea shelves that were exposed during where human-caused climate change the last glacial period when the ocean progresses on its current trajectory. was 120 meters lower than today, since While that vulnerable fraction is on the ground must be exposed to frigid air smaller rather than the larger side of temperatures in order for permafrost the total pool, it still would result in the to form. These additional deposits are addition of billions of tons of additional poorly quantified but could add several carbon into the atmosphere. Ten per hundred billions tons more carbon cent of the known terrestrial perma- to the known permafrost carbon pool frost carbon pool is equivalent to 130– described here. 160 billion tons carbon. That amount, if The critical question is how much of released primarily in the form of CO at ² this permafrost carbon is susceptible a constant rate over to climate change on a timescale that a century, would TED SCHUUR is a matters to our decision-making. The make it similar in Professor of strength of the permafrost carbon feed- magnitude to other Ecosys- back to climate depends on how much historically impor- tem Ecology carbon is released, how fast it hap- tant biospheric at Northern pens, and the form of carbon (carbon sources, such as Arizona Uni- dioxide, methane) that makes it to the deforestation, but versity, USA atmosphere. Research has measured the far less than current tremendous quantities of carbon in per- and future fossil- mafrost soils, but some of this carbon is fuel emissions.

stored deep in permafrost and will take Considering CH4 as a fraction of perma- time before a warmer climate can affect frost carbon release would increase the temperatures deep in the ground. Even warming impact of these emissions. Eroding permafrost, when thawed, some fraction of organic Permafrost carbon emissions are Seward Peninsula, Alaska. carbon is susceptible to rapid break- likely to occur over decades and cen- down and release as greenhouse gases, turies as the Arctic warms, making

Photo: groundtruthtrekking.org, Creative Commons while another fraction will remain in climate change happen even faster than tremendous quantities of permafrost soil even when the temperatures rise we project on the basis of emissions carbon stored in the north. The known due to other factors that preserve car- from human activities alone. Because of pool of permafrost carbon is 1330-1580 bon in soils. momentum in the system and the con- billion tons, accounting both for carbon tinued warming and thawing of perma- in the surface three meters of soil, and frost, permafrost carbon emissions are for carbon that is stored much deeper. likely not only during this century but These deep deposits occur in areas of also beyond. Although never likely to Siberia and Alaska that remained ungla- overshadow emissions from fossil fuel, ciated during the last Ice Age, as well as each additional ton of carbon released in Arctic river deltas. Even beyond the from the permafrost region to the atmo- deep carbon that has been documented, sphere will probably incur additional there are permafrost carbon pools costs to society. Understanding of the that at this point still remain largely a magnitude and timing of permafrost mystery. In particular, there are deep carbon emissions based on new obser-

permafrost sediments outside of Siberia Photo: groundtruthtrekking.org, Creative Commons vations and the synthesis of existing and Alaska as well as permafrost that Like a crater from a bomb, this hole data needs to be integrated into policy is now beneath the ocean. Ocean per- of melting permafrost interrupted the decisions about the management of car- mafrost is located on the shallow Arctic smooth forest around it. bon in a warming world.

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TheCircle0415.indd 7 27.10.15 14:38 Circumpolar status report Permafrost is defined as ground, soil or rock, including ice or organic material, that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. The regions in which permafrost occurs occupy approximately 24% (23 million km²) of the northern hemisphere.

Japan Philippines Indonesia

Taiwan South Korea Malaysia

North Korea

Vietnam

Cambodia Alaska (USA) Laos Thailand CHINA

Mongolia Myanmar

USA Bangladesh

CANADA RUSSIA Nepal

India

Kyrgyzstan Continuous permafrost Kazakhstan (90-100% extent) Discontinuous permafrost Greenland Svalbard Tajikistan (50-90% extent) (DENMARK) (NORWAY) Sporadic permafrost (10-50% extent) Uzbekistan Isolated patches ( 0-10% extent) Turkmenistan FINLAND Glacier

SWEDEN ICELAND Iran NORWAY Latvia Map: Ketill Berger, Film & Form. Azerbaijan Source: Brown, J., O. Ferrians, J. A. Heginbottom, and E. Melnikov. Belarus 2002. Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, Version 2. [indicate subset used]. Boulder, Colorado USA. NSIDC: Ukraine National Snow and Ice Data Center. DENMARK Poland U.K.

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TheCircle0415.indd 8 27.10.15 14:38 STATUS REPORT: Circumpolar status report

Japan Philippines Indonesia

Taiwan South Korea Malaysia

North Korea Photo: Peter Prokosch, Www.grida.no Vietnam Local ice fishermen in a permafrost cave, Siberia.

Cambodia Alaska (USA) Laos Thailand CHINA Mongolia Myanmar Russia

USA Bangladesh By MIKHAIL ZHELEZNIAK perature trends. Some regions show no CANADA RUSSIA and PAVEL KONSTANTINOV change, while others show warming of Nepal varying magnitude due to variations ERMAFROST UNDERLIES more than in microclimatic India one half of the land surface of conditions. In the Russia. Its thickness varies from a lowlands covered MIKHAIL few meters to 1200 m. Permafrost by taiga forests, Kyrgyzstan ZHELEZNIAK Continuous permafrost P occurs very close to the surface, from a snow depth is a Kazakhstan (90-100% extent) is the Director few tens of centimeters in the north to major control on Discontinuous permafrost of the Melnikov Tajikistan Greenland Svalbard (50-90% extent) a few meters in the south, and is there- the ground thermal (DENMARK) (NORWAY) Permafrost Institute. Sporadic permafrost fore sensitive to climate change. The regime. In the Arc- (10-50% extent) Uzbekistan Isolated patches relationship between permafrost and tic coastal areas and ( 0-10% extent) Turkmenistan climate is very complex. In addition to high mountains, PAVEL KON- FINLAND Glacier air temperature, permafrost is strongly strong winds result STANTINOV affected by snow cover (depth, density, in a dense snow is Senior SWEDEN and duration), rainfall amount, vegeta- cover, making other ICELAND Iran Research NORWAY Latvia Map: Ketill Berger, Film & Form. tion, type and properties of soil or rock, factors, such as the Scientist at the Azerbaijan Source: Brown, J., O. Ferrians, J. A. Heginbottom, and E. Melnikov. Belarus 2002. Circum-Arctic Map of Permafrost and Ground-Ice Conditions, and surface energy exchanges. winter air tempera- Melnikov Permafrost Version 2. [indicate subset used]. Boulder, Colorado USA. NSIDC: Ukraine National Snow and Ice Data Center. Monitoring observations in Rus- ture and the dura- Institute. DENMARK Poland U.K. sia over the last 30-40 years indicate tion of snow cover, regional differences in permafrost tem- more important. In

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permafrost areas receiving little precipi- have been increasing. In northern West tation, the amount of rainfall plays an SINCE 2000 ONWARDS Siberia, monitoring observations indi- important role in determining ground cate that permafrost warming varies temperatures. The response of perma- PERMAFROST TEM- across the natural zones. Little change frost to recent warming is also greatly PERATURES HAVE has been observed in the tundra zone, influenced by vegetation although its where ground temperatures exhibit role is the least understood. BEEN INCREASING strong fluctuations with a very small Weather station records for northern increasing trend. The greatest warming Russia indicate an increase in mean has occurred in the southern forest- annual air temperature of 0.7 to 3.0°C north-east of the European part of Rus- tundra and northern taiga zones. Deep- over the last 30 years, again causing sia and in West Siberia, where the cycles ening of the permafrost table to depths regionally different responses of perma- of warmer air temperature and greater of 5-7 m and formation of residual thaw frost temperature. snow depth generally coincided. Since layers in permafrost have also been The largest changes occurred in the 2000 onwards permafrost temperatures reported in parts of this region. In East Siberia and the Russian Far East, some sites show no change in near-surface permafrost temperatures, while others have warmed. The rates of change have been variable, with greatest warming in the alpine and subalpine zones in southern Yakutia and significant warming in the southern part of the Chukotka Peninsula. A slight 1993 1998 increase in ground temperature has been observed recently on the northern coast of the Sea of Okhotsk and in the Arctic coastal areas of Yakutia. Central Yakutia has experienced a strong warm- ing of air temperature over the last 30 years. However, permafrost tempera- tures show no long-term trend, because the cycles of higher air temperature and 2005 2008 the cycles of greater snow depth did not coincide. This region is characterized Dynamics of lake depressions due to thawing of ice-rich permafrost, Central by short-term interannual variations of Yakutia. large amplitudes. n In natural settings, thawing of permafrost from the top and areal reduction are occur- Seasonal thaw depth is another impor- ring most intensively along the southern limit of the Siberian permafrost region (where tant indicator of permafrost stability. ground temperatures are –1°C or higher). In areas affected by human activities, Analysis of data from the Circumpolar local permafrost degradation is Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) pro- observed throughout the region. gram for the last 15 years indicates that In recent years, manifestations long-term active layer dynamics in Rus- of permafrost degradation (ther- sia varies by region. Increasing trends in mokarst, thermal erosion, etc.) seasonal thaw depth have been observed have been observed along linear in the Russian European North, the engineering structures, mining forest-tundra and northern taiga zones areas, agricultural lands and fire- of West Siberia, and the northern Far affected areas. The initial cause East, as well as at some locations in East for these changes are vegetation Siberia. The tundra zone of West Siberia, disturbance, disruption of surface central Yakutia, and parts of East Siberia and subsurface drainage, and, of Melting of ground ice and cavity develop- have shown no long-term changes in course, climate warming. ment. active-layer thickness.

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Two thaw slumps in Peel Plateau, NWT, activated since 1995 by an increasing frequency of heavy rain storms. These features are up to 1 km in width. They have developed in ice-rich ground that is remnant from the last glaciation. Photo: by S.V. Kokelj Photo: by S.V. Canada

By CHRIS BURN nia. In total, one third of the country is measured values fall as low as -14°C. underlain by perennially frozen ground. Throughout the country, annual mean HE MAP of permafrost in Canada The thickness of permafrost varies temperatures in the uppermost lay- shows that about half of the from one or two metres at the southern ers of permafrost country is in the area affected by margins to hundreds of metres in the have increased in CHRIS BURN permafrost. The permafrost region continuous permafrost zone. Ground the last 20 years, teaches T geography is divided into four zones: continuous temperatures in permafrost are general- in association with permafrost, where over 90% of the ly lowest near the surface of the ground climate warming at Carleton land surface is underlain by perennially and increase with depth until 0°C is throughout the University in frozen ground; widespread discontinu- reached. The annual mean temperature North. The warm- Ottawa, Canada ous permafrost (50–90%); sporadic near the surface is commonly above ing has been up to discontinuous (10-50%); and the zone -2°C in the discontinuous permafrost 2°C. As a result, in of isolated patches of permafrost (less zones, but in continuous permafrost, the regions where it has been continu- than 10%). In addition, permafrost ing longest, the signs of warming can be may be found at high elevation in the detected to depths of over 100 m. eastern and western mountains and Climate warming itself has not yet offshore where the continental shelf was INTENSE PRECIPITA- provoked a major terrain response, exposed during the last glaciation. The TION HAS TRIGGERED although some effects have become latter observation shows that, in places, evident in the last five years. These are permafrost has been present for millen- LARGE THAW SLUMPS expected to increase in magnitude and

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TheCircle0415.indd 11 27.10.15 14:38 STATUS REPORT: Sweden By JONAS ÅKERMAN shortening of the growing season in the treatment plots, was well compensated WEDEN HAS permafrost only in the for by the increased absorption of PAR most northern parts of the country, and higher light use efficiency through- at lower elevations in peatbogs out the whole growing seasons. This is Sand at elevations from 700 meters most likely due to increased soil mois- above sea level in the northernmost ture and nutrients together with a shift

Photo: C.R.Burn mountains. Since the early 1900s, there in vegetation composition associated Upper layers of permafrost exposed has been a long history of research on with the accelerated permafrost thaw in in a fallen block on the north coast of permafrost and the stability of palsas the treated plots. Pelly Island. in the subarctic peat bogs from a geo- The following projects deal partly morphological, ecological and climato- with permafrost or problems in perma- frequency. The key characteristic con- logical perspective. From very early on, frost environments; trolling the sensitivity of permafrost to the “borderline,” or very fragile perma- The aim of DEFROST (Depicting disturbance is its ice content. The loca- frost in Sweden started to react to envi- ecosystem-climate feedbacks from per- tions that show the greatest response ronmental changes caused by climatic mafrost, snow and ice) is to understand to warming are tundra polygons, which change. how climate change induced changes in are outlined by V-shaped bodies of Monitoring of permafrost active layer the cryosphere influence the ecosystem/ pure ice. These polygons are now vis- depths began in 1978 at 10 sites in a 150 geosphere processes which directly ible on hillslopes due to melting of the km east-west transect by the Lund Dept. affect climate. We focus on key terres- ice and subsidence of the surface. Only of Physical Geography and Ecosystem trial, lacustrine and marine cryospheric five years ago they were not commonly Sciences. Last summer (2014) was very components that have the potential seen. Intense precipitation, however, warm, especially in the degraded peat for giving rise to substantial changes has triggered development of large thaw plateaus which directly affected the in climate feedback mechanisms both slumps in areas of massive ground ice, thicker active layer. The active layer in terms of surface-atmosphere energy most noticeably glacier ice preserved for data is submitted to the CALM (Circum- exchange and exchanges of greenhouse the last 12,000 years but now exposed polar Active Layer Monitoring) data- gases. DEFROST seeks to bridge exist- around the previous western margins of base. In addition, ground temperatures ing gaps between climate modelling, the great Laurentide ice sheet. from five boreholes have been down- cryospheric science, and Arctic ecosys- The most important consequence loaded and submitted to the GTN-P tem science. of climate warming on permafrost is (Global Terrestrial Network for Perma- deepening of the seasonally thawed frost) database. A snow manipulation ICOS – Integrated Carbon Observa- active layer at the ground surface. As experiment has also been running for 9 tion System – is a European research this layer thickens, ice-rich ground years in the same areas. In 2010, PAR infrastructure to quantify and under- thaws and subsides. In many areas, the (photosynthetically active radiation) stand the greenhouse gas balance of upper portion of permafrost contains a sensors were added to the monitoring. the European continent and of adjacent large quantity of organic carbon. This Increased photosynthesis compen- regions. ICOS Sweden is the Swedish material is currently entombed, but we sates for a shorter growing season in contribution to this European effort expect it will slowly thaw and degrade subarctic tundra based on eight years and is a cooperation of several research with active-layer deepening, releasing of snow accumulation manipulations. institutes. CO² or methane to enhance the atmo- Results showed higher PAR absorption spheric greenhouse. Measured rates (photosynthetically active radiation), ICOS Carbon Portal offers access to of long-term active-layer deepening in together with almost 35% higher light research data from ICOS scientists all the western Arctic are currently 2 – 3 use efficiency in treated plots (with over Europe, as well as easily acces- cm/decade, suggesting that parts of the added snow) compared to untreated sible and understandable science and now-frozen organic horizon may well plots. Estimations of Gross Primary education products. All measurement be within the active layer in the next 40 Productivity suggested that the loss in data available in the portal is quality years. early season photosynthesis, due to the controlled through the three thematic

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centres, Ecosystem, Atmospheric and mate conditions and atmospheric carbon about 120 research- JONAS ÅKERMAN Ocean Thematic Centres and a Central dioxide concentrations, it can predict ers from four Lund lectures at Swe- Analytical laboratory. structural, compositional and functional University depart- den’s Lund properties of the native ecosystems of ments: Physical University on LPJ-GUESS is a process-based dynamic major climate zones of the Earth. Geography and Arctic and vegetation-terrestrial ecosystem model Ecosystem Science, sub-arctic geo- designed for regional or global studies. LUCCI is a research centre at Lund Geology, Biology morphology/clima- Models of this kind are commonly known University devoted to studies of the and Physics. tology and ecology. as dynamic global vegetation models carbon cycle and how it interacts with (DGVMs). Given data on regional cli- the climate system. The centre involves Norway By BERND ETZELMÜLLER

HE NORTH ATLANTIC drift greatly influences the climate along the western coast of Norway, facilitat- Ting mild winters, cool summers and much precipitation despite the high latitudes. The Scandinavian mountain range stretches through most of the country from south to north, and acts as a barrier for the westerly winds, pro- ducing a strong climate gradient from the humid western parts to the drier and more continental eastern parts of Norway. Because of this climate setting, mountain permafrost is the dominating

permafrost type. In southern Norway © Sebastian Westermann the lower permafrost limit decreases Thermo-karst processes in peat plateau in Finnmark, northern Norway. from about 1600 m in the west to around 1300 m above sea level (asl) in the east. In northern Norway, moun- and 130 m depth. Data from these clearly degrading in some of our study tain permafrost prevails at above 900 boreholes are stored in the Norwegian sites. Modelling exercises indicate m asl in the western coastal areas, and permafrost database NORPERM permafrost covers around 6-8% of the decreases down to around 400 m in the (http://geo.ngu.no/kart/perma- land area, and has east in the county of Finnmark. There, frost/). These measurements show an been warming and BERND much of the permafrost is associated to increase of ground temperatures of degrading since the ETZELMÜLLE palsas and peat plateaus in mires, where up to 1°C since 1999, with permafrost end of the Little Ice is a profes- organic layers and mosses protect ice Age c. 120 years sor of Geo- lenses and ground ice from summer ago. Along the lower sciences at the thaw. Such permafrost pockets (“spo- limit of mountain University of Oslo radic permafrost”) are even found close GROUND ICE HAS BEEN permafrost and in to sea level in Finnmark. REDUCED BY UP TO 50% the palsa areas, per- In Norway, the University of Oslo mafrost temperatures are just below and the Meteorological Institute IN MANY LOCATIONS 0°C and thus highly sensitive to climate monitor ground temperatures in warming. about 15 boreholes, between 10 m SINCE THE 1950S Recently, the wetland areas of north-

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ern Norway including the palsas and and settlements, and in the worst case, peat plateaus have gained increasing trigger tsunamis if large rock masses hit attention. First of all, detailed air photo fjords or lakes. and field surveys show ground ice has Finally, permafrost also has the capa- been reduced by up to 50% in many bility to preserve objects as long as they locations since the 1950s through ther- are kept frozen. In the mountain per- mo-karst processes, which adds up to a mafrost areas of Norway we find a high considerable permafrost loss. Secondly, abundance of ice patches, which are this thaw may trigger an increased thin perennial ice accumulations frozen emission of greenhouse gasses from to underlying permafrost ground. The previously frozen, but now degrading last decade’s climate warming has melt- organic material. ed parts of these patches and revealed Most of the permafrost in Norway is archaeological artefacts from historic situated in uninhabited areas, so that and pre-historic human activity, such as permafrost changes have limited impact reindeer hunting. Close to the highest on society. However, glaciations and mountain in Scandinavia, Galdhøpig- glacier erosion have sculpted mountain gen, many such artefacts are found. areas in Norway, revealing many steep Here, an ice-tunnel was excavated 50 and unstable slopes. Many of those m into an ice patch, demonstrating that lie in the permafrost realm, and slope the ice and therefore the underlying stability is influenced by permafrost permafrost are older than 6000 years and permafrost thaw. Large unstable (http://mimisbrunnr.no/?lang=en). mountain slopes, such as the continu- This site is a laboratory for research ously monitored Mt. Nordnes northeast and for visualising the impact of climate

Photo: © Lars Harald Blikra of Tromsø, are most likely influenced by change to the public in the highly fragile Crevasse separating unstable rock permanent ice in large cracks. Failure of mountain environments of Scandina- masses this or similar slopes may affect roads via. Photo: © Bernd Etzelmüller View from Mt. Nordnes and instrumentation on an unstable, moving block above the fjord, view towards the Lyngen peninsula and the village of Lyngseidet

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Svalbard (Norway)

By HANNE HVIDTFELDT CHRISTIANSEN different landforms. The first 102 m deep borehole at Janssonhaugen was HE ARCHIPELAGO of Svalbard drilled in 1998, and is the first deep is located in the High Arctic permafrost borehole with thermal around 78˚N and 16˚E, and observation in the Nordic countries. Thas a maritime arctic climate, Particularly since the International with mean annual air temperatures Polar Year 2007-2008 we now have recently as warm as -3 to -4˚C, and more than 30 boreholes drilled into generally little precipitation. Clearly the permafrost for temperature obser- the climatology of the area is affected vations in different landforms in Sval- by the North Atlantic Drift bringing bard. The permafrost temperature warm air into this high Arctic loca- varies between -3˚C and -7˚C. With tion. This special setting causes the the lowest temperatures found in the permafrost in Svalbard to be the boreholes located high in the moun-

warmest this far north in the Arc- tains, but also in boreholes in the Photo: Peter Prokosch, Www.grida.no tic. In Svalbard permafrost is found sediment-in filled valleys. The high- outside the glaciated areas, which est temperatures are found along the Permafrost soil stone formations, cover approximately 60% of the west coast, where the influence from Kongsfjord archipelago. The permafrost is con- the North Atlantic Drift is largest. tinuous, meaning that it underlays The thickness of the important typically 90-100% of the landscape. active layer on top of the permafrost As part of the research activities in Permafrost is an important, but is monitored in Svalbard as part of the the EU permafrost project, and in the typically not directly visible, part of Circumpolar Active Layer Monitor- Longyearbyen CO² the cryosphere. Permafrost is often ing Network (CALM) in the end of laboratory, we have HANNE HVIDTFELDT not directly visible in the landscape each summer, reaching its maximum collected the first CHRISTIANSEN except for special landforms such as thickness of between 74 and 110 cm deeper (10 to 60 m) teaches Physi- pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock over the last 15 years in fine-grained cores from the per- cal Geogra- glaciers. All of these landforms are sediments in central Svalbard. In mafrost in Svalbard. phy at the found in Svalbard, which has a high recent summers the thawing has been This allows us to University relief landscape, where permafrost is deeper. study the content of Centre in Sval- found both in the mountains and in Our permafrost temperature data ice and the ice types bard, Norway. the large valley lowlands. from Svalbard is available in the in the permafrost, Intensive studies of permafrost Norwegian Permafrost Database, and obtain more were only started in the 1990s in NORPERM www.ngu.no/kart/perma- information on the Scandinavia, whereas other parts of frost_svalbard/?lang=English) hosted age of the permafrost and the sedi- the Arctic have permafrost tempera- at the Geological Survey of Norway, ments in it. From this ongoing work ture data series dating back up to just as some of the data is also now we know that the permafrost in the 30-40 years. This is due to other parts included into the Global Terrestrial large valleys is mainly formed during of the Arctic having much larger areas Database on Permafrost (GTN-P) the last 5000 years, while permafrost with permafrost. Svalbard, however, (www.gtnp.org). in the mountains can be much older. represents the only landscape in This distribution is mainly due to the Scandinavia that has permafrost also sea level having been higher after the in the lowland areas, where people IN RECENT SUM- last glaciation, and sedimentation are living directly on permafrost. in the large valleys following degla- To be able to observe the perma- MERS THE THAWING ciation so that most of the lowland frost thermal state boreholes have permafrost in Svalbard is of Holocene been drilled into the permafrost in HAS BEEN DEEPER age.

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TheCircle0415.indd 15 27.10.15 14:38 STATUS REPORT: Photo © Þorsteinn Sæmundsson Frozen blocks mobilised by a land slide in Móafellshyrna in Fljót, North Iceland. The slide occurred on the 20th of Iceland September 2012

By BERND ETZELMÜLLE wind redistribution of snow, for example, permafrost relatively thin. However, leads to more pronounced ground freez- even on active volcanoes like Mount ITH ICELAND’S LOCATION in the ing. All these factors make mountain Hekla permafrost growth has been middle of the Northern Atlantic permafrost in Iceland highly vulnerable observed due to deposition of ash layers Ocean, the island is dominated to climate change. Around these lower during winter which melt the snow- Wby mild and moist maritime limits especially north of Vatnajökull and pack. Another landform indicative for weather conditions. Therefore, perma- around most of Hofsjökull, palsa mires mountain permafrost are rock glaciers, frost in Iceland is restricted to mountain and peat plateaus are frequent. These or creeping permafrost bodies along areas, and mire areas in the high lying mires contain pockets of ice lenses and steep slopes. These forms are lobes of plateaus in the interior. The lower limit ground ice, normally protected by thick coarse, ice-cemented debris, where the of mountain permafrost decreases from organic layers and mosses. New obser- ice slowly deforms and facilitate glacier- southeast to north in Iceland. We can vations indicate that these palsa and like movement. Hundreds of these rock expect widespread mountain permafrost peat plateaus are also deteriorating. On glaciers can be observed particularly in above 1000 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in Iceland the mountain permafrost zone Tröllaskagi in northern Iceland reveals the south and 800 m a.s.l. in the north covers an area of c. 8000 km² or around the presence of mountain permafrost. and the east of Iceland. The tempera- 8% of the land area, according to some The activity of these rock glaciers indi- ture within the mountain permafrost is simple modelling exercises. cate whether they contain ice at present, comparably warm, only -0.5˚C to -1˚C Permafrost on Iceland is special or if they were formed during former and below the freezing point. The snow cover because of Iceland’s location in the cooler climate conditions than today. governs the lower limit of mountain middle of the Mid-Atlantic rift zone with Finally, mountains often have steep permafrost. A thick snow cover insulates high volcanic activity. There is a high slopes and rock walls, especially moun- the ground, while absence of snow due to ground thermal heat flux, which keeps tain ranges recently glaciated like most

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ranges in northern Europe. Glacier ero- is frozen and therefore fixed. Thawing porting frozen material downslope, sion steepens mountains slopes, and permafrost and melting ice in cracks and indicating the failure of frozen bedrock when de-glaciated they tend to become sediments favours instability, more fre- and sediments. A warmer climate will unstable and can fail. Permafrost stabi- quent slope failures and greater impact certainly affect thaw of steep mountain lises steep slopes as water in crevasses on society and human activity. Recently, slopes and the possibility of increased and in sediments covering the slopes landslides were observed rapidly trans- risk for slope failures in the future. Finland

By STEPHEN D. GURNEY and JUKKA KÄYHKÖ lead to the loss of this permanently fro- WITH A WARMING zen ground. EASURING OVER 1000 km from CLIMATE THERE WILL The sporadic permafrost in the frozen south to north, the mean annual cores of the palsas is a rather special air temperature (maat) in Fin- BE AN INCREASE IN case. Here the permafrost occurs in a Mland ranges from +5°C to -2°C. particular landform (the palsas) and the Unlike neighbouring Sweden and Nor- THE NUMBER OF DE- peat in which they develop. Palsas have way, Finland is relatively low-lying, with a ‘life-cycle’ and decay when the layer of only occasional summits reaching 1000 CAYING PALSAS peat covering their frozen core becomes m elevation. These factors produce a thin through stretching to accommodate ‘seasonal frost’ climate so that much of the growth of the core and cracks open, the country is not affected by perma- only seasonally frozen. Should this leading to melting. frost. The northernmost regions of the type of permafrost be lost, land surface When palsas col- Dr STEPHEN D. GUR- country (the communes of Enontekiö, change and greenhouse gas production lapse some of the NEY is best Inari and Utsjoki), however, have some are likely to ensue. peat decomposes, known for areas of ‘sporadic’ permafrost – isolated Globally, areas of ‘warm’ permafrost which produces his work on pockets of permanently frozen ground are most vulnerable to decay. This greenhouse gases permafrost- underlying less than 30% of the ground ‘warm’ permafrost is typically sporadic, such as methane. related cryo- surface. as discussed above. Since it is found in With a warming genic mounds. Sporadic permafrost in Finland gen- regions with a maat of between 1.0°C climate there will be erally takes one of two forms. The first and -2.9°C, just a small shift in mean an increase in the Professor JUKKA is found at higher elevations on the temperatures can lead to its loss. At number of decaying KÄYHKÖ is fells (‘tunturi’ in Finnish). In this case, present, the majority of permafrost in palsas and perhaps best known the temperature of the bedrock some Finland is found only in Utsjoki and an absence of new for his work metres below the surface is continu- Enontekiö. Utsjoki is the most northerly palsas. This may on the geo- ously below 0°C. Loss of this type of region, but Enontekiö has, on average, form part of a posi- morphological permafrost will not necessarily result higher elevations and hence the maat tive feedback cycle, processes of wind in land surface change or in the genera- are similar, although snow cover differ- whereby warmer and water and climate- tion/release of greenhouse gases. ences also play a role. conditions lead to vegetation interactions The second form of sporadic perma- The sporadic permafrost on the enhanced palsa in Lapland. frost is found in the palsa mires (‘palsa- northern fells of Finland has a thickness decay, which in suo’) of northernmost Finland. Palsas of at least 50 m. The lower limit has turn leads to greater are mounds up to 7 m high with a frozen been observed at an altitude of around greenhouse gas production. core, which grow in the thick peat of 300 m in the Utsjoki region, but without Although permafrost degradation mires due to deep penetration of frost geoelectrical soundings it is difficult to is a concern, other impacts of climate in winter, which does not thaw in the map. The active layer (the uppermost change on things such as winter snow- intervening summers (given the insu- part which thaws each summer) above fall (and hence the period of snow lating effects of the overlying peat). In such permafrost is several metres cover) may well have a much greater this setting, only the cores of the palsa thick. Some have speculated that this influence on the lives of people and the mounds actually constitute permafrost permafrost does not reflect the current native fauna than thawing permafrost, and are surrounded by mire, which is climate. Further warming will certainly at least in the short term.

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TheCircle0415.indd 17 27.10.15 14:38 STATUS REPORT: Greenland

By BO ELBERLING

ERMAFROST COVERS most parts of ice-free Greenland and holds organic matter which is decom- Pposable upon thawing. But due to the young age of the ice-free part of Greenland the amount of stored carbon is limited. Taking into account the rate of decomposition, permafrost carbon in Greenland is unlikely to markedly affect atmospheric greenhouse gas levels in the near future. But investigations on permafrost stability and associated pro- cesses across the contrasting climates The upper ice-rich permafrost in Greenland is exposed and the composition of sedi- found in Greenland, is highly relevant ments, water and air bubbles is clearly seen. The last component, microorganisms, in order to assess the importance of is not visible, but crucial to the understanding of the consequences of the thawing permafrost in the Arctic in general. This permafrost. The picture shows a landscape strongly influenced by permafrost thaw- is the reason for the on-going research ing followed by collapse in Zackenberg in Northeast Greenland. at at the Centre for permafrost (CEN- PERM) at Univer- suggest that permafrost temperatures in BO ELBERLING is sity of Copenhagen. NEAR THE RIM OF THE Zackenberg 10 m below the soil surface a Professor & The Greenland have been between -7 and -8 °C within Director of the ice cap is such an ICE CAP, A RECENT the last 100 years, and that the tempera- Center for efficient insulator RETREAT OF THE GLA- tures have risen to the actual -6 to -8 °C Permafrost against the cold and show a potential increase to between (CENPERM of winter that the CIER ICE IS OBSERVED -2 and -3 °C before year 2100. Further- University of heat from the Earth more, based on the thermal properties Copenhagen. prevents the forma- IN SEVERAL PLACES of the active layer and of the permafrost tion of permafrost combined with a projection of tem- below the ice. Thus, peratures and precipitation, a water and permafrost is only found in ice-free ing research network (CALM) include energy budget is calculated. The COUP areas and was formed in Greenland few Greenlandic sites. CALM Measure- model (Coupled heat and mass transfer when the ice retreated from the coastal ments in Zackenberg, Northeast Green- model for soil plant-atmosphere sys- areas after the most recent ice age about land in 1996 show an increase in the tems) has been calibrated and afterwards 10,000 years ago. Since the last ice age, maximum active layer depth of more validated on data series from both West- the majority of permafrost in Greenland than 1 cm per year and reveal a faster ern and Eastern Greenland, and recently has grown to a thickness of 10 m to increase on dry tundra and a slower used for a sensitivity analysis. In Zack- more than 400 m. Near the rim of the increase in wet fens. The ice content is enberg the sensitivity analysis shows ice cap, a recent retreat of the glacier ice crucial to the future thaw rate and to the that the maximum active layer depth will is observed in several places, and new environmental impact of the thawing. increase and that 20-70 cm of the upper permafrost is formed. Mathematical modeling is also used permafrost will potentially thaw before It is difficult to precisely measure to predict current and future thawing of year 2100. Moreover, the sensitivity the rate of permafrost thawing. One permafrost. Uncertainties are linked to analyses show that the ice content of the method is to measure the depth of the these models, since the models only to a permafrost and the future volume and active layer. Yearly measurements of certain extent take into account draining, distribution of snow in the landscape are late summer maximum thaw depth by erosion, deposition and geomorphology crucial inputs to provide more robust the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitor- of the landscape. Presently, the models projection of future thawing.

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TheCircle0415.indd 18 27.10.15 14:38 STATUS REPORT: United States

By KENJI YOSHIKAWA Annual mean ground surface temperature Alaska and Yukon Canada communities N THE UNITED STATES, permafrost is Most of the communi- present in Alaska as well as the higher ties are located in altitudes of the Rocky Mountains, the regions warmer than Cascade Range, Sierra Nevada, as well -1 ºC especially south I of Brooks Range. as Hawaii. We confirmed presence of per- mafrost at the Mauna Kea (4205m) sum- Permafrost is warm- mit area but none at Mauna Loa (4169m) ing, not thawing in volcanoes. There are several ice caves most of the areas observed at Mauna Loa but no permafrost except for Bristol Bay due to smooth mountain slopes, much villages. different micro topography than Mauna Kea and also its recent eruption history in 1984. Permafrost extends widely across most of Alaska except in the Aleutian Islands and along the Gulf of Alaska. Permafrost conditions vary depending on loca- tion. Over the last 20 years, permafrost temperatures in Alaska have changed noticeably. Generally, the increases in permafrost temperature are more pro- Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Permafrost is mafrost (0 to 2°C), unlike north-facing nounced at coastal Arctic sites (from 1.5 absent in lower flooded terrain such as slopes and valley bottoms, which do (-3 to to 3.0°C at the permafrost table) and less Nunam Iqua (Sheldon Point), Scammon 0°C). Permafrost distribution is strongly pronounced in Interior Alaska (from 0.5 Bay, Hooper Bay, Emmonak, Kotlik, and affected by solar radiation (slope aspect) to 1.5°C). Continuous and colder perma- Chefornak. However, in villages located in and soil properties. frost (-3°C and lower) is mainly found on higher (older) terrain (20–50 cm higher The southern Dr. KENJI YOSHIKAWA the North Slope (Barrow; Kaktovik, -9°C) than flooded terrain), there is permafrost, boundary of per- is a research and in the Brooks Range (Arctic Village, with a temperature range between -0.8 mafrost in Alaska professor at -3.8°C). Southwest of the Brooks Range, and -0.2°C. is around 60°N the Water and permafrost is discontinuous. Typical allu- The distribution of permafrost in Ber- latitude, but it is an Environmen- vium or glaciofluvial coarse sediments are ing Sea islands is exceptional. There is irregular boundary. tal Research absent of permafrost. Many native vil- well-developed permafrost found on St. In the Bristol Bay Center, University lages, such as in the Kobuk and Koyukuk Lawrence Island and Little Diomede area, glaciofluvial of Alaska Fairbanks. River valleys, are located on permafrost- Island (-2°C). Permafrost appears in and glacial history Pingos and icings are free terrain (Ambler, Kobuk, or Huslia, 0 eolian sediments at Nunivak Island and prevented the forma- his primary interest. to 5°C). The Seward Peninsula and Bering Nelson Island (-0.3°C). Permafrost is tion of permafrost, Strait coastal regions have a maritime absent in the Pribilof Islands. Volcanic but permafrost climate and a variety of permafrost condi- activity on Saint Paul Island created developed in eolian sediments (Eek, tions. Permafrost temperature is between several lava tube caves. Ice has not been Koliganek, Quinhagak) slightly below 0°C -3°C (Kotzebue, Shishmaref, Wales) and recorded in any of the caves. to -0.2°C. In the Gulf of Alaska region, -2°C (Teller, Nome). There is an absence In the greater part of Interior Alaska permafrost is absent due to heavy snow- of permafrost (slightly above 0°C) on and the Copper River Basin, permafrost fall and warm ocean temperatures during the south side of the Seward Peninsula is present discontinuously. For example, winter, such as in Valdez (4°C). However, (Elim, White Mountain). Storm surge ground temperature may fluctuate in some of the peat-rich marshy areas and spring river-flooding events heavily between -2 to 2°C over a 1 sq. km area. near Anchorage, ice-rich silty sediments influence permafrost distribution in the South-facing slopes do not contain per- remain frozen (-0.2°C).

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TheCircle0415.indd 19 27.10.15 14:38 INFRASTRUCTURE

Shifting sands – Creative Commons Feuerborn, flickr.com, Terry Photo: living on permafrost

By BRONWYN BENKERT

In the North, we live on permafrost. Much of our infra- structure is built on ground that is at or below 0°C for two years or more. We travel across permafrost, and it sup- ports our homes and workplaces. Northerners have long had to contend with permafrost in construction and eco- nomic development – in the Klondike gold fields, prospec- tors at the turn of the 20th century actively thawed frozen ground to reach pay dirt, while workers constructing the Alaska Highway during the Second World War battled thawing ground that never stabilized, forcing on-the-fly adaptation of construction processes.

NORTHERNERS CONTINUE TO adapt to impacts on infrastructure. As the only our permafrost environment, which dedicated permafrost research group in forces us to use ingenuity and inno- northern Canada, the Northern Climate vation as we invest in and maintain ExChange (NCE), part of the Yukon infrastructure on permafrost. This task Research Centre at Yukon College, is has become increasingly challenging, working with community, government as a result of com- and industry partners to assess perma- BRONWYN BENKERT pounding factors frost vulnerability to thaw, and to iden- is a research that include height- tify suitable measures to keep it stable. prevent thaw. These ranged from modi- project coor- ened development Yukoners have regularly witnessed fied snow clearing practices to engineer- dinator with intensity and a impacts of permafrost thaw on infra- ing solutions. Permafrost cores, ground the North- changing climate. structure. In January 2015, a 15-year-old temperature records and geophysics ern Climate The goal of Yukon school was closed due to concerns profiles were collected and analyzed ExChange, Yukon preserving costly about its structural integrity. Shifts in by NCE researchers. Together, these Research Centre, northern infrastruc- the foundation were attributed, at least approaches form the basis of our under- Yukon College, White- ture prompts us to in part, to permafrost thaw under the standing of conditions that contributed horse. develop a thorough building. Substantial investment was to infrastructure vulnerability and dam- understanding of required to repair the building before it age, and may contribute to the preserva- permafrost char- could be re-opened in September. Prior tion and longevity of our buildings. acteristics and its dynamic responses to the closure of the school, NCE part- Increasingly, permafrost-related to anthropogenic and environmental nered with Yukon government to assess information is being integrated as part stressors. In Yukon, research focuses on permafrost conditions and recommend of the planning process for local devel- identifying solutions to permafrost thaw practices that could be used to slow or opment. In Yukon, many communities

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TheCircle0415.indd 20 27.10.15 14:38 Gold-rush era buildings in Dawson City, Yukon, showing the impact of permafrost thaw on building stability.

are proactively adopting adaptive plan- In some cases, choosing stable or Where permafrost is already degrading, ning approaches, based in part on land- non-permafrost locations for infrastruc- the management of nearby water and scape hazard maps the NCE and its part- ture is impractical. Twenty-five percent on-going remediation are continually ners have developed. These maps inte- of Yukon’s 4800 km highway network required to reduce infrastructure dete- grate current and future hazards associ- is built on permafrost. The maintenance rioration. Further, sections of highway ated with permafrost, surficial geology of these sections can cost in excess of 5 overlying permafrost that are currently and hydrology into easy-to-interpret, times that of non-permafrost sections. stable may be affected by future perma- community-scale maps. The hazard risk frost degradation – it is likely that per- maps have assisted Yukon communities mafrost impacts on linear infrastructure and other agencies in choosing suitable A 15-YEAR-OLD YUKON will become more significant with time. locations for new infrastructure by help- SCHOOL WAS CLOSED DUE Fortunately, modified construction ing them avoid key thaw-sensitive areas, practices and thaw mitigation tech- and by allowing them to assess the suit- TO CONCERNS ABOUT ITS niques can be used to preserve perma- ability of development projects for local frost and reduce degradation impacts conditions. STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY on linear infrastructure like highways. ➤

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TheCircle0415.indd 21 27.10.15 14:38 ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS The tipping point Permafrost carbon feedback represents a very slow, but irreversible climatic tipping point. Permafrost will thaw slowly over many years, but once it thaws, you cannot refreeze it, writes KEVIN SCHAEFER.

PERMAFROST is perennially frozen ground remaining at or below 0°C for INFRASTRUCTURE

Photo: Northern Climate ExChange at least two consecutive years. Regions Permafrost core extracted near the WILL BE DAMAGED with extensive permafrost occupy about Alaska Highway, Yukon. 24% of the land area in the Northern OR DESTROYED AS Hemisphere. The active layer is the sur- face layer of soil above the permafrost PERMAFROST CON- However, because variability is inher- that thaws each summer and refreezes ent in permafrost characteristics and each winter. The thickness of the per- TINUES TO THAW distribution, a reasonable solution for mafrost layer depends upon a delicate one place may be completely ineffective balance between freezing from surface considering that permafrost can take or even damaging at a nearby location. due to cold winter temperatures and hundreds of years to respond to varia- Recently, NCE completed an assessment warming from the Earth’s molten inte- tions in climate such as the little ice age of permafrost vulnerability to thaw rior. Permafrost is thickest along the 400 years ago. along the northern 200 km of the Alas- Arctic coastline where temperatures are Buildings, roads, and other infra- ka Highway, where ice-rich permafrost coldest, extending down to depths as structure will be damaged or destroyed is located under much of the highway great as 1500 meters. Air temperatures as permafrost continues to thaw. Ice alignment. This characterization has increase southward from the Arctic within permafrost binds soil particles informed the design of solutions that Ocean and the thickness of the perma- together like cement. Permafrost is hard, are tailored to local permafrost condi- frost layer becomes progressively thin- dense, and erosion resistant, but if the tions. Results will guide Yukon govern- ner, eventually disappearing altogether permafrost thaws, the ice turns to water ment in making strategic investments in at latitudes between 50 and 60 degrees and the permafrost turns to mud, desta- the most promising, effective thaw miti- north. bilizing and collapsing buildings with gation techniques adapted to local con- The effects of warming temperatures remarkable rapidity. Retreating sea ice ditions, reducing on-going maintenance due to global climate change have begun has increased wave intensity, resulting in costs and preserving highway integrity. to thaw the permafrost. The effects of rapid coastal erosion. Indeed, several vil- Promoting resilience to permafrost climate change are especially strong lages have already been moved because change in the North is a multi-faceted north of the Arctic Circle, where the the coast has simply eroded away. process. It requires basic information warming rate is roughly double the Climate change is affecting perma- regarding the nature, thermal state, global average. The rising temperatures frost, but thawing permafrost will also and extent of permafrost, as well as on- have caused permafrost to disappear affect the global climate. Organic matter going monitoring of permafrost change. entirely in some regions, moving the frozen in permafrost contains enough Thaw mitigation techniques can also southern boundary of the permafrost carbon to easily double the carbon diox- offer protective benefits to infrastruc- domain northward. The active layer ide concentration in the atmosphere. ture. Importantly, the development of thaws deeper each year as summer tem- Since the end of the last ice age about northern capacity to respond to north- peratures rise. The temperatures within 15,000 years ago, this frozen carbon ern problems like permafrost impacts the permafrost layer itself remain below was buried by sedimentation and other on infrastructure is helping to ensure freezing, but are rising at rates as high processes. The soil depth increased as improved infrastructure resiliency for as 1°C per decade. These current tem- sediment built up, but the surface thaw our communities. perature increases are truly alarming depth stayed constant such that organic

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TheCircle0415.indd 22 27.10.15 14:38 Melting permafrost – changing landscape

Winter Summer

Tens Hundred Thousands of years of years of years 0 Time

Pond Active layer

Closed Permafrost thaw talik

Ice -rich permafrost Permafrost thaw Open talik

Non frozen ground Graphic: www.page21.eu

■■ SURFACE: The surface is the interface ■■ PERMAFROST: Ground, soil or rock, can vary in depth from just a few centim- through which heat and carbon fluxes enter including ice or organic material, that eters to 1600 meters. or leave the ground. remains at or below 0°C for at least two ■■ TALIK: Unfrozen ground in permafrost ■■ ACTIVE LAYER: The layer of ground consecutive years. areas. They are often found beneath lakes that is subject to annual thawing and freez- ■■ NON-FROZEN GROUND: The area and rivers.

ing in areas underlain by permafrost. beneath the permafrost. The permafrost Source: www.page21.eu

matter at the bottom of the active layer of fossil fuels. Half of the total emis- international climate change treaty does became frozen into the permafrost. sions will occur after 2100 with a total not account for emissions from thaw- The organic matter will remain stable of ~240 gigatons by 2300 resulting in ing permafrost, we will overshoot our as long as the permafrost remains fro- a global temperature increase of ~0.6 2 degree warming zen, but, like broccoli removed from a degrees centigrade. target. KEVIN SCHAEFER freezer, once the organic matter thaws The permafrost carbon feedback The permafrost is a research it will decay and release carbon dioxide will complicate the negotiation of the carbon feedback scientist at and methane into the atmosphere. Once climate change treaty. The interna- represents a very the National released into the atmosphere, this car- tional community is currently nego- slow, but irrevers- Snow and bon dioxide and methane will amplify tiating a treaty to stop global climate ible climatic tipping Ice Data Center warming due to the burning of fossil change based on a target of 2 degrees point. Permafrost (NSIDC), University of fuels in a process called the permafrost centigrade global warming above pre- will thaw slowly Colorado carbon feedback. industrial levels. If we reduce fossil fuel over many years, For the ‘business as usual’ scenario emissions to hit the 2 degree centigrade but once it thaws, where we continue to burn fossil fuels warming target, the rate of permafrost you cannot refreeze at current rates or higher, thawing per- thaw and associated emissions will go it. The decay of the thawed organic mafrost will release ~120 gigatons of down to ~60 gigatons by 2100 with matter occurs slowly over hundreds of carbon by 2100 (a gigaton is a unit of an additional global warming of ~0.1 years because the Arctic soils will still explosive force equal to one billion tons degrees. Again, half of the emissions be fairly cold and wet. However, once of trinitrotoluene or TNT), equivalent will occur after 2100 with a total of the organic matter decays away, there is to ~5.7% of anthropogenic emissions. ~120 gigatons by 2300 resulting in a no way on human time scales to put it This will increase global temperatures global temperature increase of ~0.2 back in the permafrost. In essence, once by 0.29 degrees centigrade above the degrees centigrade. While this is small the permafrost carbon feedback starts, 7-8 degrees expected due to the burning compared to fossil fuel emissions, if the it will persist for centuries.

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TheCircle0415.indd 23 27.10.15 14:38 Firefighters perform burn out operation in shaded fuelbreak

The impact of forest fires

Left: A severely burnt area in the southern Northwest Ter- ritories, Canada, where the vegetation has been com- pletely consumed, showing the bare mineral soil and allowing more heat to transfer into the ground. Right: An unburnt area nearby where the organic material is thick and insulates the permafrost below.

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TheCircle0415.indd 24 27.10.15 14:38 Climate change is one of the most substantial and wide- spread environmental phenomena of our immediate future, with the effects of global climate change projected to be most severe at high latitudes. Permafrost landscapes make up a large portion of the Northern hemisphere. JEAN HOLLOWAY says understanding the impacts of change for the people, ecosystems and infrastructure in these areas is important.

THERE HAS BEEN substantial winter and Forest fires are a natural and essential spring warming in west-central and part of the boreal forest ecosystem, and northwestern Canada and virtually all of typically locations burn every 50-300 Siberia over the past three decades. years. Global warm- How permafrost is affected by these ing and greater JEAN HOLLOWAY is a temperature changes depends on com- human activities PhD candidate plex interactions among topography, have increased in the Dept. of surface water, soil, vegetation, and the frequency and Geography at snow, which vary greatly between sites, magnitude of for- Ottawa Uni- even over short distances. Vegetation, in est fires, which versity focus- particular, can insulate permafrost from generally occur in ing on the impacts of the atmosphere, making it resilient to warm and dry sum- forest fires on perma- increases in air temperature, at least in mers. The number frost in the southern the short term. This ecosystem-protect- of recorded forest Northwest Territories, ed permafrost covers millions of square fires in Canada has Canada. kilometres worldwide and is particularly increased substan- sensitive to climate and environmental tially in the last 30 change as it is just below 0°C, thin and years. In Siberia 1.5% of the total for- usually cannot be re-established after ested area burns annually. The response disturbance. The most widespread of permafrost to forest fires depends on source of disturbance of this permafrost the degree to which the permafrost is

Photo: Alaska Region U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, flickr.com, Creative Commons Alaska Region U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, flickr.com, Photo: is forest fire. protected by the ecosystem. ➤

Landslides fol- lowing forest fire in the Mackenzie Valley. The rapid thaw of perma- frost led to ground ice melt and loss

Photo: Antoni Lewkowicz of strength.

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TheCircle0415.indd 25 27.10.15 14:38 CHINA ➤ The heat from the fire itself does not Forest fires also affect permafrost directly affect permafrost. The dam- landscapes in ways that are more age occurs when intense fires destroy noticeable. In the first and second the organic layer that is insulating the years after a fire, landslides can occur ground. This exposes the underlying on hill-slopes. Progressive uneven sur- mineral soil, which is more conduc- face subsidence of the ground (called Building on permafrost in the “Third Pole” tive than the surface organic mat, and thermokarst) may also occur for years allows more heat to get into the ground. because of melting ground ice within Due to global warming, perma- the permafrost. This can affect current Similarly, fire removes trees, which frost is degrading around the catch snow thus creating a deeper layer infrastructure as well as future develop- world and China is no excep- of snow that shields the ground from ment, especially as the frequency of fire necessary cold winter temperatures. The means that many developments in the tion. Permafrost regions occu- active layer deepens until the upper lay- boreal forest may expect to be affected py 2,150,000 km² or roughly ers of permafrost begin to thaw. Other by fire at some point during the lifespan 22% of China. Most of this is factors that aid in this degradation of infrastructure. on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Another important effect of forest include decreasing albedo due to surface also known as the Third Pole. darkening, and loss of shading from the fires is carbon release during the fires More than half of the land area tree canopy. Soils with permafrost in and from thaw of permafrost post-fire. the coldest and wettest landscape posi- Boreal permafrost soils store large of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau tions (e.g. valleys) usually do not thaw amounts of organic carbon, and fire is underlain by permafrost, as deeply after fires as soils in warmer disturbance influences the amount and which is the highest and most and drier positions, such as hilltops type of carbon in the soil. Forest fires extensive high altitude perma- or south-facing slopes. Fire severity is release approximately 53 million tonnes frost on Earth. FUJUN NIU says also significant, especially the degree of carbon from North American boreal building on this plateau has to which the ground surface layer is forests each year. Vegetation re-growth burned. Complete destruction of the for- post-fire actually ends up storing large required innovative solutions. est and the surface organic layer by hot, amounts of carbon, but in a warming slow-moving fires will have the greatest climate with a higher frequency and impact, while fast-moving fires may skip magnitude of forest fires, this is expect- THE PERMAFROST on the Qinghai-Tibet over patches of forest, and low intensity ed to change. Furthermore, thaw of Plateau is characterized by high ground fires can leave much of the organic layer permafrost following forest fires allows temperature (warm permafrost), along intact. While the general influence on carbon that has been trapped in frozen with high ice content. The fragile eco- permafrost is therefore clear, how it will soils to become available for decom- logical environment on the plateau respond at a particular site depends on position by soil microbes. Both these makes the permafrost highly sensitive numerous local factors. phenomena create a positive-feedback to climate change and human activities. Thaw and degradation of burned loop: climate change results in a greater Data indicates that a large portion of the areas is expected to continue until frequency and magnitude of forest fires, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has experienced sufficient re-vegetation occurs to re- which release greenhouse gases into the significant warming since the mid- establish the insulating organic mat. atmosphere, which results in more cli- 1950s, with rapid permafrost degrada- Vegetation recovery after forest fires mate change, and so on. tion. Evidence includes increased mean has a major influence on stabilization How permafrost responds to forest annual ground temperature (MAGT), of permafrost thaw. Growth is rapid in fire is a complex issue, but it is clear that increased active layer thickness, talik the first few years, and then slows down a warming climate and the expected development, and even disappearance with time, as there is more competition increase in the frequency and mag- of permafrost islands. Data show that for moisture and sunlight. The complete nitude of fires will have a substantial the thickness of the active layer has recovery of the ecosystem to pre-burn impact on permafrost thaw and degra- increased by 0.15 to 0.50 m and ground conditions can take up to 50 years. dation, especially in the discontinuous temperature at a depth of 6 m has risen However, this depends on the climate zone. It is important that we understand by about 0.1° to 0.3°C between 1996 still being suitable for permafrost. If these impacts so we can make informed and 2001. Made worse by human activi- the permafrost is ecosystem-protected decisions on fire-management and how ties, the degradation has been seriously and the climate is warming, permafrost to deal with post-fire issues such as compromising the engineering stability degradation may continue until it disap- landslides and positive feedback adding of local infrastructures. pears entirely. to climate change. The Qinghai-Tibet Highway, con-

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TheCircle0415.indd 26 27.10.15 14:38 CHINA Building on permafrost in the “Third Pole”

the thermal regime within and beneath the embankments varied significantly with embankment structures. Obvi- ous asymmetries, which might cause longitudinal cracks, existed in the per- mafrost table and ground temperature field of the traditional embankment and the crushed-rock basement embank- ment. The ground temperatures, espe- cially under the sunny slopes, increased gradually even though the permafrost table was elevated, indicating that the thermal regimes of the traditional embankment and crushed rock bed embankment were disadvantageous for their thermal stabilities. In contrast, the ground tempera- ture fields of both FUJUN NIU is Vice- The duct-ventilated embankment with the slopes covered by crushed-rock has an the crushed-rock director of the obvious effect of cooling down the subgrade. sloped embank- State Key ment and the Laboratory of structed in the 1950s on the plateau, the ground temperature. Construction U-shaped crushed- Frozen Soils was the first large scale infrastructure in of the railway began in 2001 and was rock embankment Engineering the permafrost regions. The permafrost completed in 2006 using a number remained sym- was ignored during the highway con- of measures to adjust and control the metrical, and their struction with many subsequent settling amount of solar radiation, heat convec- permafrost tables were also raised and problems. Investigations indicated that tion, and heat conduction to cool the then maintained. approximately 85% of the damage to roadbed for the railway. Various engi- The U-shaped crushed-rock embank- highway embankments was caused by neering measures, including crushed ment has the best long-term effect in the thaw settlement of ice-rich perma- rock embankment, duct-ventilated both decreasing the ground tempera- frost. In the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering embankment, sun-shading embank- ture and improving the symmetry of Corridor, over one half of the perma- ment and thermosyphon embankment, the temperature field. Cooling roadbed frost is ‘warm’ and approximately 40% were also tested and applied. methods, therefore, are long-term effec- ice-rich. Considering the permafrost The crushed rock embankment has tive, guaranteed for train speeds of 100 scenarios influenced by local natural since been widely adopted. A decade of km/h. factors, permafrost degradation and les- ground temperature data indicates that The ecological environment of the sons from the other existing infrastruc- plateau is very vulnerable. Studies on tures, the traditional passive method of the impact of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway simply increasing the thermal resistance PERMAFROST WAS showed that accommodation, followed by raising the embankment height and by shopping and food service, accounts using insulating materials has been ­IGNORED DURING HIGH- for the highest percentage of the eco- proven ineffective in warm and ice-rich WAY CONSTRUCTION logical footprint caused by passenger permafrost areas. Thus the Qinghai- transport. Carrying capacity brought by Tibet Railway was designed and con- WITH MANY SUBSE- freight transport is increasing year by structed using a ‘cooling roadbed’. This year and accounts for 51% of the total method cools the roadbed by lowering QUENT PROBLEMS ecological footprint on Tibet.

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TheCircle0415.indd 27 27.10.15 14:38 Return WWF Global Arctic Programme 275 Slater Street, Suite 810, Ottawa ON, K1P 5H9, CANADA

THE PICTURE Fissures of Men Photo: Northern Climate ExChange A longitudinal crack due to permafrost degradation along the Alaska Highway, Yukon.

Why we are here To stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature.

www.panda.org/arctic

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