Hölder Continuity of the Solutions to a Class of SPDE's Arising from Branching Particle Systems in a Random Environment
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												An Infinite Dimensional Central Limit Theorem for Correlated Martingales
Ann. I. H. Poincaré – PR 40 (2004) 167–196 www.elsevier.com/locate/anihpb An infinite dimensional central limit theorem for correlated martingales Ilie Grigorescu 1 Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, 1365 Memorial Drive, Ungar Building, Room 525, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA Received 6 March 2003; accepted 27 April 2003 Abstract The paper derives a functional central limit theorem for the empirical distributions of a system of strongly correlated continuous martingales at the level of the full trajectory space. We provide a general class of functionals for which the weak convergence to a centered Gaussian random field takes place. An explicit formula for the covariance is established and a characterization of the limit is given in terms of an inductive system of SPDEs. We also show a density theorem for a Sobolev- type class of functionals on the space of continuous functions. 2003 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. Résumé L’article présent dérive d’un théorème limite centrale fonctionnelle au niveau de l’espace de toutes les trajectoires continues pour les distributions empiriques d’un système de martingales fortement corrélées. Nous fournissons une classe générale de fonctions pour lesquelles est établie la convergence faible vers un champ aléatoire gaussien centré. Une formule explicite pour la covariance est determinée et on offre une charactérisation de la limite à l’aide d’un système inductif d’équations aux dérivées partielles stochastiques. On démontre également que l’espace de fonctions pour lesquelles le champ des fluctuations converge est dense dans une classe de fonctionnelles de type Sobolev sur l’espace des trajectoires continues. - 
												
												Stochastic Differential Equations with Variational Wishart Diffusions
Stochastic Differential Equations with Variational Wishart Diffusions Martin Jørgensen 1 Marc Peter Deisenroth 2 Hugh Salimbeni 3 Abstract Why model the process noise? Assume that in the example above, the two states represent meteorological measure- We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of in- ments: rainfall and wind speed. Both are influenced by ferring stochastic differential equations for both confounders, such as atmospheric pressure, which are not regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical measured directly. This effect can in the case of the model modelling. The work has high emphasis on the in (1) only be modelled through the diffusion . Moreover, stochastic part of the differential equation, also wind and rain may not correlate identically for all states of known as the diffusion, and modelling it by means the confounders. of Wishart processes. Further, we present a semi- parametric approach that allows the framework Dynamical modelling with focus in the noise-term is not to scale to high dimensions. This successfully a new area of research. The most prominent one is the lead us onto how to model both latent and auto- Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) regressive temporal systems with conditional het- model (Engle, 1982), which is central to scientific fields eroskedastic noise. We provide experimental ev- like econometrics, climate science and meteorology. The idence that modelling diffusion often improves approach in these models is to estimate large process noise performance and that this randomness in the dif- when the system is exposed to a shock, i.e. an unforeseen ferential equation can be essential to avoid over- significant change in states. - 
												
												Application of Malliavin Calculus and Wiener Chaos to Option Pricing Theory
Application of Malliavin Calculus and Wiener Chaos to Option Pricing Theory by Eric Ben-Hamou The London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of London UMI Number: U615447 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615447 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 weseS F 7855 % * A bstract This dissertation provides a contribution to the option pricing literature by means of some recent developments in probability theory, namely the Malliavin Calculus and the Wiener chaos theory. It concentrates on the issue of faster convergence of Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo simulations for the Greeks, on the topic of the Asian option as well as on the approximation for convexity adjustment for fixed income derivatives. The first part presents a new method to speed up the convergence of Monte- Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo simulations of the Greeks by means of Malliavin weighted schemes. We extend the pioneering works of Fournie et al. - 
												
												Malliavin Calculus in the Canonical Levy Process: White Noise Theory and Financial Applications
Purdue University Purdue e-Pubs Open Access Dissertations Theses and Dissertations January 2015 Malliavin Calculus in the Canonical Levy Process: White Noise Theory and Financial Applications. Rolando Dangnanan Navarro Purdue University Follow this and additional works at: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations Recommended Citation Navarro, Rolando Dangnanan, "Malliavin Calculus in the Canonical Levy Process: White Noise Theory and Financial Applications." (2015). Open Access Dissertations. 1422. https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations/1422 This document has been made available through Purdue e-Pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact [email protected] for additional information. Graduate School Form 30 Updated 1/15/2015 PURDUE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL Thesis/Dissertation Acceptance This is to certify that the thesis/dissertation prepared By Rolando D. Navarro, Jr. Entitled Malliavin Calculus in the Canonical Levy Process: White Noise Theory and Financial Applications For the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Is approved by the final examining committee: Frederi Viens Chair Jonathon Peterson Michael Levine Jose Figueroa-Lopez To the best of my knowledge and as understood by the student in the Thesis/Dissertation Agreement, Publication Delay, and Certification Disclaimer (Graduate School Form 32), this thesis/dissertation adheres to the provisions of Purdue University’s “Policy of Integrity in Research” and the use of copyright material. Approved by Major Professor(s): Frederi Viens Approved by: Jun Xie 11/24/2015 Head of the Departmental Graduate Program Date MALLIAVIN CALCULUS IN THE CANONICAL LEVY´ PROCESS: WHITE NOISE THEORY AND FINANCIAL APPLICATIONS A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Purdue University by Rolando D. Navarro, Jr. - 
												
												Weak Approximations for Arithmetic Means of Geometric Brownian Motions and Applications to Basket Options Romain Bompis
Weak approximations for arithmetic means of geometric Brownian motions and applications to Basket options Romain Bompis To cite this version: Romain Bompis. Weak approximations for arithmetic means of geometric Brownian motions and applications to Basket options. 2017. hal-01502886 HAL Id: hal-01502886 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01502886 Preprint submitted on 6 Apr 2017 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Weak approximations for arithmetic means of geometric Brownian motions and applications to Basket options ∗ Romain Bompis y Abstract. In this work we derive new analytical weak approximations for arithmetic means of geometric Brownian mo- tions using a scalar log-normal Proxy with an averaged volatility. The key features of the approach are to keep the martingale property for the approximations and to provide new integration by parts formulas for geometric Brownian motions. Besides, we also provide tight error bounds using Malliavin calculus, estimates depending on a suitable dispersion measure for the volatilities and on the maturity. As applications we give new price and im- plied volatility approximation formulas for basket call options. The numerical tests reveal the excellent accuracy of our results and comparison with the other known formulas of the literature show a valuable improvement. - 
												
												Mean Field Methods for Classification with Gaussian Processes
Mean field methods for classification with Gaussian processes Manfred Opper Neural Computing Research Group Division of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science Aston University Birmingham B4 7ET, UK. opperm~aston.ac.uk Ole Winther Theoretical Physics II, Lund University, S6lvegatan 14 A S-223 62 Lund, Sweden CONNECT, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen Blegdamsvej 17, 2100 Copenhagen 0, Denmark winther~thep.lu.se Abstract We discuss the application of TAP mean field methods known from the Statistical Mechanics of disordered systems to Bayesian classifi cation models with Gaussian processes. In contrast to previous ap proaches, no knowledge about the distribution of inputs is needed. Simulation results for the Sonar data set are given. 1 Modeling with Gaussian Processes Bayesian models which are based on Gaussian prior distributions on function spaces are promising non-parametric statistical tools. They have been recently introduced into the Neural Computation community (Neal 1996, Williams & Rasmussen 1996, Mackay 1997). To give their basic definition, we assume that the likelihood of the output or target variable T for a given input s E RN can be written in the form p(Tlh(s)) where h : RN --+ R is a priori assumed to be a Gaussian random field. If we assume fields with zero prior mean, the statistics of h is entirely defined by the second order correlations C(s, S') == E[h(s)h(S')], where E denotes expectations 310 M Opper and 0. Winther with respect to the prior. Interesting examples are C(s, s') (1) C(s, s') (2) The choice (1) can be motivated as a limit of a two-layered neural network with infinitely many hidden units with factorizable input-hidden weight priors (Williams 1997). - 
												
												Particle Filter Based Monitoring and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Corrosion Using Successive Measurements of Structural Responses
sensors Article Particle Filter Based Monitoring and Prediction of Spatiotemporal Corrosion Using Successive Measurements of Structural Responses Sang-ri Yi and Junho Song * Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-2-880-7369 Received: 11 October 2018; Accepted: 10 November 2018; Published: 13 November 2018 Abstract: Prediction of structural deterioration is a challenging task due to various uncertainties and temporal changes in the environmental conditions, measurement noises as well as errors of mathematical models used for predicting the deterioration progress. Monitoring of deterioration progress is also challenging even with successive measurements, especially when only indirect measurements such as structural responses are available. Recent developments of Bayesian filters and Bayesian inversion methods make it possible to address these challenges through probabilistic assimilation of successive measurement data and deterioration progress models. To this end, this paper proposes a new framework to monitor and predict the spatiotemporal progress of structural deterioration using successive, indirect and noisy measurements. The framework adopts particle filter for the purpose of real-time monitoring and prediction of corrosion states and probabilistic inference of uncertain and/or time-varying parameters in the corrosion progress model. In order to infer deterioration states from sparse indirect inspection data, for example structural responses at sensor locations, a Bayesian inversion method is integrated with the particle filter. The dimension of a continuous domain is reduced by the use of basis functions of truncated Karhunen-Loève expansion. The proposed framework is demonstrated and successfully tested by numerical experiments of reinforcement bar and steel plates subject to corrosion. - 
												
												Stochastic Differential Equations with Variational Wishart Diffusions
Stochastic Differential Equations with Variational Wishart Diffusions Martin Jørgensen 1 Marc Peter Deisenroth 2 Hugh Salimbeni 3 Abstract Why model the process noise? Assume that in the example above, the two states represent meteorological measure- We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of in- ments: rainfall and wind speed. Both are influenced by ferring stochastic differential equations for both confounders, such as atmospheric pressure, which are not regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical measured directly. This effect can in the case of the model modelling. The work has high emphasis on the in (1) only be modelled through the diffusion . Moreover, stochastic part of the differential equation, also wind and rain may not correlate identically for all states of known as the diffusion, and modelling it by means the confounders. of Wishart processes. Further, we present a semi- parametric approach that allows the framework Dynamical modelling with focus in the noise-term is not to scale to high dimensions. This successfully a new area of research. The most prominent one is the lead us onto how to model both latent and auto- Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) regressive temporal systems with conditional het- model (Engle, 1982), which is central to scientific fields eroskedastic noise. We provide experimental ev- like econometrics, climate science and meteorology. The idence that modelling diffusion often improves approach in these models is to estimate large process noise performance and that this randomness in the dif- when the system is exposed to a shock, i.e. an unforeseen ferential equation can be essential to avoid over- significant change in states. - 
												
												Stochastic Differential Equations and Hypoelliptic
. STOCHASTIC DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND HYPOELLIPTIC OPERATORS Denis R. Bell Department of Mathematics University of North Florida Jacksonville, FL 32224 U. S. A. In Real and Stochastic Analysis, 9-42, Trends Math. ed. M. M. Rao, Birkhauser, Boston. MA, 2004. 1 1. Introduction The first half of the twentieth century saw some remarkable developments in analytic probability theory. Wiener constructed a rigorous mathematical model of Brownian motion. Kolmogorov discovered that the transition probabilities of a diffusion process define a fundamental solution to the associated heat equation. Itˆo developed a stochas- tic calculus which made it possible to represent a diffusion with a given (infinitesimal) generator as the solution of a stochastic differential equation. These developments cre- ated a link between the fields of partial differential equations and stochastic analysis whereby results in the former area could be used to prove results in the latter. d More specifically, let X0,...,Xn denote a collection of smooth vector fields on R , regarded also as first-order differential operators, and define the second-order differen- tial operator n 1 L ≡ X2 + X . (1.1) 2 i 0 i=1 Consider also the Stratonovich stochastic differential equation (sde) n dξt = Xi(ξt) ◦ dwi + X0(ξt)dt (1.2) i=1 where w =(w1,...,wn)isann−dimensional standard Wiener process. Then the solution ξ to (1.2) is a time-homogeneous Markov process with generator L, whose transition probabilities p(t, x, dy) satisfy the following PDE (known as the Kolmogorov forward equation) in the weak sense ∂p = L∗p. ∂t y A differential operator G is said to be hypoelliptic if, whenever Gu is smooth for a distribution u defined on some open subset of the domain of G, then u is smooth. - 
												
												Markov Random Fields and Stochastic Image Models
Markov Random Fields and Stochastic Image Models Charles A. Bouman School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Purdue University Phone: (317) 494-0340 Fax: (317) 494-3358 email [email protected] Available from: http://dynamo.ecn.purdue.edu/»bouman/ Tutorial Presented at: 1995 IEEE International Conference on Image Processing 23-26 October 1995 Washington, D.C. Special thanks to: Ken Sauer Suhail Saquib Department of Electrical School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Engineering University of Notre Dame Purdue University 1 Overview of Topics 1. Introduction (b) Non-Gaussian MRF's 2. The Bayesian Approach i. Quadratic functions ii. Non-Convex functions 3. Discrete Models iii. Continuous MAP estimation (a) Markov Chains iv. Convex functions (b) Markov Random Fields (MRF) (c) Parameter Estimation (c) Simulation i. Estimation of σ (d) Parameter estimation ii. Estimation of T and p parameters 4. Application of MRF's to Segmentation 6. Application to Tomography (a) The Model (a) Tomographic system and data models (b) Bayesian Estimation (b) MAP Optimization (c) MAP Optimization (c) Parameter estimation (d) Parameter Estimation 7. Multiscale Stochastic Models (e) Other Approaches (a) Continuous models 5. Continuous Models (b) Discrete models (a) Gaussian Random Process Models 8. High Level Image Models i. Autoregressive (AR) models ii. Simultaneous AR (SAR) models iii. Gaussian MRF's iv. Generalization to 2-D 2 References in Statistical Image Modeling 1. Overview references [100, 89, 50, 54, 162, 4, 44] 4. Simulation and Stochastic Optimization Methods [118, 80, 129, 100, 68, 141, 61, 76, 62, 63] 2. Type of Random Field Model 5. Computational Methods used with MRF Models (a) Discrete Models i. - 
												
												An Intuitive Introduction to Fractional and Rough Volatilities
mathematics Review An Intuitive Introduction to Fractional and Rough Volatilities Elisa Alòs 1,* and Jorge A. León 2 1 Department d’Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and Barcelona GSE c/Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27, 08005 Barcelona, Spain 2 Departamento de Control Automático, CINVESTAV-IPN, Apartado Postal 14-740, 07000 México City, Mexico; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: Here, we review some results of fractional volatility models, where the volatility is driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBm). In these models, the future average volatility is not a process adapted to the underlying filtration, and fBm is not a semimartingale in general. So, we cannot use the classical Itô’s calculus to explain how the memory properties of fBm allow us to describe some empirical findings of the implied volatility surface through Hull and White type formulas. Thus, Malliavin calculus provides a natural approach to deal with the implied volatility without assuming any particular structure of the volatility. The aim of this paper is to provides the basic tools of Malliavin calculus for the study of fractional volatility models. That is, we explain how the long and short memory of fBm improves the description of the implied volatility. In particular, we consider in detail a model that combines the long and short memory properties of fBm as an example of the approach introduced in this paper. The theoretical results are tested with numerical experiments. Keywords: derivative operator in the Malliavin calculus sense; fractional Brownian motion; future average volatility; Hull and White formula; Itô’s formula; Skorohod integral; stochastic volatility models; implied volatility; skews and smiles; rough volatility Citation: Alòs, E.; León, J.A. - 
												
												Even If Google Sent You Here, What Follows Is NOT the Book RANDOM
i Note: Even if Google sent you here, what follows is NOT the book RANDOM FIELDS AND GEOMETRY published with Springer in 2007, but rather a companion volume, still under production, that gives a simpler version of the theory of the first book as well as lots of applications. You can find the original Random Fields and Geometry on the Springer site. Meanwhile, enjoy what is available of the second volume, and keep in mind that we are happy to receive all comments, suggestions and, most of all, cor- rections. ii Applications of RANDOM FIELDS AND GEOMETRY Foundations and Case Studies Robert J. Adler Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management and Faculty of Electrical Engineering Technion { Israel Institute of Technology Haifa, Israel e-mail: [email protected] Jonathan E. Taylor Department of Statistics Stanford University Stanford, California. e-mail: [email protected] Keith J. Worsley Department of Mathematics and Statistics McGill University Montr´eal,Canada and Department of Statistics University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois. e-mail: [email protected] May 20, 2015 0 Preface Robert J. Adler Jonathan E. Taylor1 Keith Worsley Haifa, Israel Stanford, California Montreal, Canada ie.technion.ac.il/Adler.phtml www-stat.stanford.edu/∼jtaylo www.math.mcgill.ca/keith 1Research supported in part by NSF grant DMS-0405970 Contents 0 Preface .................................................... iii 1 Introduction ............................................... 1 1.1 An Initial Example......................................1 1.2 Gaussian and Related Random Fields......................3 1.3 Shape and the Euler Characteristic........................4 1.4 The Large-Scale Structure of the Universe..................7 1.4.1 Survey Data......................................7 1.4.2 Designing and Testing a Model......................8 1.5 Brain Imaging.........................................