Office of Rail Regulation

Independent Reporter (Part C)

ORR Support to the Programme Systems Integrator, Phase 2

Independent Reporter’s Assessment of Schedule Slippage Affecting the ’s Key Output 1

Executive Summary

17 May 2010 8 Independent Reporter

Office of Rail Regulation

Independent Reporter (Part C)

Office of Rail Regulation support to the Thameslink Programme Systems Integrator, Phase 2

Independent Reporter’s assessment of schedule slippage affecting the Thameslink Programme’s Key Output 1

Final Report Executive Summary

17 May 2010 THAMESLI NK PROGRAMME: ASS ESSMENT OF SCHED ULE SLIPP AGE TO KO 1

Execut ive summary

Int roduction

At its meeting on 16 July 2009, the Thameslink Programme (TLP) Board agreed to establish a cross-industry Systems Integration (SI) Team to deliver programme syystems integration capability. In September 2009, the S I Team was established, reporting to the Thameslink Programme Delivery Group (PDG) through the Systems Integration Authority (SIA).

At the July 200 9 Board meeting, it was also agreed that the Office of Raiil Regulation (ORR) would support the TLP programme management effort through the SI Team by providing an independent review and advice functionn. The ORR’s Independent Reporter (Part C) (N ichols consortium) (referred to as ‘the Reporter’) undertook this role under Phase 1 of the mandate, ‘CN /004 - ORR support to the Thameslink Programme Syst ems Integrraator’, issued on 4 September 200 9. The main role of the Reporter was to provide objective assurance to the industry, throug h the ORR, that the systems integration function was working satisfactorily and fairly.

In February 201 0, the ORR asked the Reporter to continue to support the SI Team in Phase 2 of the systems integration work under the Mandate ‘ORR support tto the Thameslink Programme Systems Integrator, Phase 2’, issued on 1 February 2010. TThe Reporter is to conttinue to provide, on the ORR’s behalf, an independent review and advice function to the SI Team, during the Team’s Phase 2 work.

The ORR also requested the Reporter, under Paragraph 1 (3) of this mandate, to investigate ’s reports of schedule slippage affecting key output delivery dates, and to assess what factors are causing it. This reporrt presents the findings of this work for Key Ou tput 1 (KO1).

B a ckground

The TLP

The TLP has been structured to deliver a phased roll-out of programme benefits, through its key output milestones, KO1 and KO2:

• KO1 delivers interim benefits before the full scheme is completed in KO2; by December 2011, KO1 aims to deliver:

- the infrastructure capability to operate longer 12-car trains from Bedford along the (MML) through Central and on to Brighh ton

- up to 16 trains per hour (tph) through Central London

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- significant crowding-relief benefits to commuters on the MMML, and the first significant step change in capacity arising from the TLP

• the full functionality of the TLP comes from the delivery of KO2, which is 24 tph through the Central London core section, achieved through the resignaling and reconstruction of and its app roaches, together with a new fleet of rolling stoc k; this is scheduled to be delivered from December 20161.

KO1

The scope of the KO1 works includes:

• the total reconstruction of Blackfr iars Station, including new LU stat ion, new platforms spanning the River Thames on a wi dened bridge and a new ticket hall and entrance on the South Bank

• the major rebuilding of Farringdon Station, including the new Integrated Ticket Hall (ITH) for the interchange with (due to open in 2017)

• lengthening the platforms at 14 stations between Bedford and Brighton for 12-car trains

• enhancements to Rail Systems, involving signaling, power, communicattions and track

• reliability strengthening at key locations along the Thameslink route.

Network Rail has agreed to deliver KO1 in two milestones:

• 10 December 2011 the capability to delivery 12-car operation2

• 31 March 2012 for the completion of the infrastructure work3 ready for the timetable changes in May 2012, including bay platf orms.

K e y findin gs

The key findings of the Reporter’s investigation were:

• Network Rail has confirmed that the infrastructure will be complete for 12-car operation to commence in December 2011, with both LU and Mainline (North and South) Stations at Blackfriars and Farringdon operational

• Network Rail has made good progress, particularly in the Christmas 200 09 blockade, when a new bridge deck was installed at Blackfriars Station, critical enabling works for the ITH

1 Hansard Column 47 reports that KO2 is now schedu led to be completed ‘from December 2016’, a year laater than previously announced. 2 On 10 December 2011, some of the current 8-car trains will be lengthened to 12. 3 31 March 2012 is also the programme milestone for the substantial completion of Blackfriars Station.

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were comp leted at Farr ingdon Stat ion, and new signaling for bi-directioonal (bi-di) working was commissioned at St. Pancras

• as at Period 104, Network Rail was reporting schedule slippage across a number of KO1 workstreams, including a number o f critical path activities at Blackfriarr s Station, which in turn affect the Protocol Milestone, ‘Infrastructure capability for KO1 TTimetable (inc Bay Platforms)’

• the key slip page is the forecast su bstantial completion at Blackfriars S tation in July 2012 instead of March 2012; this is be ing driven by the comp letion of th e mechanical and electrical en gineering works in the l atter part of the schedule

• several stakeholders report that it iis not yet clear what Blackfriars Statt ion will look like in December 2011, the date at which 12-car operation commences

• part of the work on Farringdon Stt ation was initially delaye d by nine mmonths in order to accommodate the incorporation o f Crossrail requirements into the I TH design; further slippage has occurred in Periods 10 and 11 across several activities as a result of ongoing performanc e issues with the desig n contractor, the time taken for LU approvals and to secure plan ning approvals

• although not on the critical path, it would be of some concern th at there has been continuing slippage to most of the Farringdon Station Milestones in P eriods 10 and 115; any further slippage may soon impa ct on the TLP critical path

• work on the critical ‘East-West Tr ack Switch’ at Blackfriars Station w as postponed by three mont hs to an 8-week station closure between November 2010 and January 2011; good anec dotal evidence of Net work Rail’s Schedule Quantified Risk Assess ments indicate co nfidence of completion w ithin the 8-week closure

• other works within the TLP scope in clude enhancements initiated by Firrst Capital Connect (FCC) to improve the reliability and flexibility of the Thameslink servic e; some of these works have suffered slippage, pro bably in favour of the main TLP s cope of works; in particular, t he Midland Road Crossoover trackwork installation has slippe d by a total of 287 days on its original scheduled date , and is now re-scheduled for poss essions in October 2010

• Network Ra il and the Train Operat ing Companies (TOCs) are working closely together to define and agree the track possesss ions for the Programme:

- the access regime for the peri od up to Easter 2011 has been agreed with the TOCs

4 P eriod 10 is the pe riod between 13 December 2009 a nd 9 January 2010. 5 P eriod 11 is the pe riod between 10 January 2010 and 6 February 2010.

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- the process for agreeing the track possessions for 2011/12 is underway; Network Rail will table its proposals by the end of March 2010

• systems integration on TLP is being managed in two areas:

- systems integration for KO1 is managed by the Networkk Rail Programme Engineering Team

- the integration for 24 tph and KO2, is being managed by the SI Teeam

• the Network Rail Programme Director confirms that the programme has sufficient resources, and he is encouraging stability and continuity of resources by increasing the percentage of Network Rail staff over the use of agency staff

• the genera l view held by stakeholdders is that governance is working well; Network Rail and key stakeholders broadly agrr ee that the TLP Board and PDG are helpful and are making decisions when requested

• there is st rong stakeholders’ sup port for Network Rail, particularly following its good delivery performance over the Christmas 2009 blockade; sta keholders:

- broadly feel that Network Rail is demonstrating a clear and improved delivery focus

- are confident that Network Rail will deliver the infrastructure capability for 12-car operation in December 2011.

C o nclusio ns

Good progress

As at Period 11, Network Rail has made good progress, particularly:

• completing the Christmas 2009 work programme – Bridge 410E slide,, Fleet Sewer work, new bi-di signaling installed and commissioned at St. Pancras

• agreeing the track possessions proo gramme for the next two years

• building confidence with key stakeholders, and engaging with FCC and LU on completion of Blackfriars and Farringdon Stations

• agreeing the schedule and cost with contractors for Blackfriars and Farrringdon Stations

• tendering the last of its signaling works packages

• obtaining the Section 61 approvals for the revised schedule

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• implementing the ‘Programme Challenge’ schedule workstreams, aimed at building more float into the schedule and pulling back substantial completion of Blackfriars Station to 31 March 2012.

Further, Network Rail and certain key stakeholders report that there is grreater clarity about what needs to be done and the associated risks. This is reflected by:

• there being no changes to the top risks for KO1 in Period 10, and there are no red impact probability scores for those risks

• the improving contingency profile over the last six months; in Periods 10 and 11, contingency increased, comparing favourably with the assessed exposure

• key stakeholders’ improved visibility and understanding of the deliverables at Blackfriars Station, Farringdon Station and thee Rail Systems work6

• key stakeholders’ confidence in Network Rail’s plans to deliver the inffrastructure for 12- car operation in December 2011.

All stakeholders remain relatively confi dent about delivery of 12-car capability in December 2011, however many are cautious about achievement of the second Protocol Milestone, ‘Infrastructure Capability for KO1 Timetable (including Bay Platforms))’ and particularly substantial completion of Blackfriars Station7 by March 2012. Indeed, tthis is reflec ted in Network Rail’s reports that there is a ‘loo w probability’ of these being achieved by March 20128; both are currently forecast for completion by July 2012.

Reasons for slippage

There are several reasons for the reported slippage:

• arguably, programme milestones were:

- developed before there was a sufficiently full understanding of the scope and the complexity of what is involved, for example to re-build Blackfriars Station

- subject to optimistic planning with insufficient continge ncy or floatt

• early contractor involvement at Blackfriars Station did not yield the expected results

• some contractor and designer performance issues

• the time taken for LU de sign assurance checks and approvals

6 This includes work to track, signals, telecoms, electriification and plant, reliability strengthening, outer areas and inner areas tunnels. 7 The programme milestone is ‘Blackfriars (Station) subbstantially complete’ by 31 March 2012. 8 Thameslink Programme IDG Summary Report Period 11 09/10.

5 THAMESLI NK PROGRAMME: ASS ESSMENT OF SCHED ULE SLIPP AGE TO KO 1

• the time taken to secure additi onal statutory approvals, such as further planning permissions at Farringdon Station and further Section 61 Notices at Blackfriars Station

• the finalisation of the workscope whilst works are being constructed, for example, at Farringdon Station

• the work is being undertaken on a live operational railway, and will always have to respond to its primacy of needs

• a degree of schedule fluctuation is to be expected from planning such a complex programme 2-3 years ahead.

Risks to completion

The key risks to completion of KO1 include:

• the total volume of work to be comppleted

• a lack of flexibility and float in the remaining schedule

• securing th e required LU track clos ures for the remaining works.

At Blackfriars Station, the specific risks concern:

• the volume of work to be completed

• aligning sub-contractors’ schedules with December 2011 and March 2012 milestones under the ‘Programme Challenge’ schedule workstream

• the ground conditions for piling in thhe River Thames

• obtaining LU track closures

• bringing the Station into service, including Station hand-back arrangemments.

At Farringdon Station, the specific risks concern:

• the volume of work to be completed

• finalising outstanding sc ope with LU and DfT

• further slippage from ongoing performance issues with the design contrractor

• the interface with LU on design assurance

• residual planning approvals issues involving English Heritage

• the ground conditions for piling the ITH sub-structure

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• further slippage impacting on the T LP critical path

• bringing the Station into service, including Station hand-back arrangemments.

For Rail Systems, the remaining risks concern:

• the delivery of the East-West Trackk Switch within the scheduled 8-week possession

• possessions for other track, signaling, electrification and plant works.

Systems integration

The extent to which the SI Team is contributing to the scheduled delivery of the key outputs will be principally confined to KO2, and nnot KO1. This is because the SI Team was set up to:

• focus on the operational issues for 24 tph

• provide assurance that the system wwill perform reliably and consistently.

There are some ‘touch points’ between KO1 and KO2, such as with the KO 1 signaling system. Nevertheless, many of the engineering parameters are already fix ed. That is, the scope of KO1 is largely fixed and has been modelled. Hence:

• the impact of industry systems integration activities has already been made for the KO1 scope

• the Network Rail Programme Engineering Team is neither waiting for noor dependent upon instructions from the SI Team.

The Reporter’s o pinion

The Reporter’s opinion is that the on-timme delivery of KO1 is de licately poissed, and it is a fair reflection of this that stakeholders generally agree that a ‘traffic light’ status and trend on KO1 is ‘amber’ and ‘static’.

Notwithstanding some significant challenges, particularly the volume of work to be delivered and the availability of possessions and LU track closures, there is a good probability, supported by precedent in KO0 that Network Rail will deliver:

• the infrastructure for 12-car operati on in December 2011

• operational stations at Blackfriars and Farringdon (there will still be some ongoing construction work at Blackfriars Station after December 2011).

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However, the key issues are:

• the nature of Blackfriars Station in December 2011 and its forecast substantial completion in July 2012

• the continuing slippage of the conss truction works at Farringdon Station .

In the Reporter’s opinion:

• Network Rail is unlikely to achii eve the ‘Blackfriars St ation subssttantially complete’ milestone by March 2012, and it is likely that the completion works w ill continue beyond this date

• any further slippage to the Farringdon Station works in the next two to three periods may begin to impact the critical path for KO1.

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