Premium Value. Corporate Leading Free Cash Flow. Independent. Presentation Canadian Natural. February 2020 Delivering Value & Growth
SNAPSHOT 2018 2019F 2020B
Capital expenditures – net (C$ million)(1) $4,731 $3,800 $4,050
Annualized dividend (C$/share)(2) $1.34 $1.50
Production (annual average, before royalties)
Crude Oil (Mbbl/d) 821 839 - 888 910 - 970
Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,548 1,485 - 1,545 1,360 - 1,420
BOE (MBOE/d) 1,079 1,087 - 1,146 1,137 - 1,207
Company Gross Reserves, before royalties, of crude oil and natural gas (as at December 31, 2018)(3)
Proved crude oil and NGLs (MMbbl) 8,784
Proved natural gas (Bcf) 6,652
Proved BOE (MMBOE) 9,893
Proved and probable BOE (MMBOE) 13,382
(1) 2019F excludes costs related to the Devon Canada asset acquisition which closed on June 27, 2019. (2) 2019F and 2020B based on current quarterly dividend of $0.375 per common share. (3) Excludes Devon Canada asset acquisition, which closed on June 27, 2019. Note: See Advisory for pricing assumptions and cautionary statements.
TABLE OF CONTENTS • Industry Leading Free Cash Flow Page 4 • Robust, Economic Long Life Low Decline Assets Page 8 • Increasing, Sustainable Returns to Shareholders with Significant Upside Page 11 • Asset Overview Page 13 • Marketing Page 22 • Balance Sheet Strength Page 24 • Long Term Sustainability Page 25 Corporate Presentation February 2020
The Canadian Natural Advantage
Delivering in Today’s Environment
Industry Leading Free Cash Flow
Capital Discipline and Operational Excellence
Robust, Economic, Long Life Low Decline Assets
Increasing, Sustainable Returns to Shareholders with Significant Upside
LEADING FREE CASH FLOW 2
Canadian Natural
Large, Long Life Low Decline asset base UNIQUE Effective and efficient operations o Area knowledge o Extensive infrastructure ownership o Operatorship of core areas SUSTAINABLE o Environmentally and socially responsible operations Defined growth / value enhancement plans by product and basin Flexible capital allocation to maximize value ROBUST Strong Balance Sheet supports investment grade credit ratings Opportunistic acquisitions
LEADING FREE CASH FLOW 3
1 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Balanced, Diverse Portfolio
• Balanced, diverse production mix • International exposure North America North Sea • Vast, balanced resource base to develop • Growing, sustainable adjusted funds flow • ~48% light crude oil and SCO production
Offshore Africa 2020 Budget* BOE Production Mix Liquids Production Mix
Natural Gas Conventional & ~20% Oil Sands Unconventional Mining & Upgrading ~23% (SCO) ~36%
Long Life Low Decline Heavy ~77% Crude Oil ~32% Light Crude *Based upon mid-point of 2020B production guidance. Oil & NGLs ~12% BALANCED PRODUCT MIX PROVIDES FLEXIBILITY 4
2019F Production per Share Growth Top 15 Companies
(%) 66% 20% 6 of 14 peers delivered: > 7% production per share growth 15%
10% Group Average 5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. Note: Production per share growth based upon Q1/19 to Q4/19F. Q4/19F production based upon Bloomberg consensus data as at November 13, 2019. Deliverable of ~7% based upon approximate group average. TOP TIER PRODUCTION PER SHARE GROWTH 5
2 Corporate Presentation February 2020
2020F Free Cash Flow Yield Top 15 Companies
(%) 20%
18% 3 of 14 peers delivered: 16% > 7.5% free cash flow yield; & 14% > 7% production per share growth 12% 10% 8% Group Average 6% 4% 2% 0%
Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. CHK shown as zero due to share price change. Source: Goldman Sachs Energy Comp – November 11, 2019. Deliverable of ~7.5% based upon approximate group average. TOP TIER FREE CASH FLOW YIELD 6
Share Repurchases – Trailing 12 Months Top 15 Companies
($ million) $6,000
2 of 14 peers delivered: $5,000 > $1.2 billion share repurchase; > 7.5% free cash flow yield; & $4,000 > 7% production per share growth
$3,000
$2,000
Group Average $1,000
$0
Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. Source: Bloomberg data as at November 13, 2019. Deliverable of C$1.2 billion based upon approximate group average. Data based upon reported Q4/18 to Q3/19 repurchases. BALANCED SHARE REPURCHASES 7
3 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Dividend Growth – 10 Year CAGR Top 15 Companies
(%) Canadian Natural and only 20% 1 of 14 peers delivered: > 10% 10 year CAGR dividend; 15% > $1.2 billion share repurchase;
Group Average > 7.5% free cash flow yield; & 10% > 7% production per share growth
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15% (23%) (100%)
Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. Source: 10 year CAGR based upon 2010 to current 2019 quarterly dividend annualized. Bloomberg data as at November 13, 2019. Deliverable of ~10% based upon approximate group average of Companies with positive growth. INDUSTRY LEADING DIVIDEND GROWTH 8
Industry Leading Free Cash Flow
4 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Balance & Optimize the Four Pillars of Capital Allocation
Maximizing Shareholder Value
Balance Resource Returns to Opportunistic Sheet Value Shareholders Acquisitions Strength Growth
FLEXIBLE CAPITAL ALLOCATION MAXIMIZES SHAREHOLDER VALUE 10
2019 Track Record What CNQ Delivered on our Four Pillars • Returns to Shareholders ‒ Distributed ~$2.7 billion to shareholders in 2019 . ~$941 million of common shares repurchased in 2019 . Increased quarterly dividend 12% over 2018 levels ~$1.7 billion annualized • Balance Sheet Strength ‒ ~$2.3 billion debt retired(1) ‒ Debt : EBITDA (2.0x ~1.9x)(2) ‒ Debt : Book Capital (39% ~38%)(2) • Resource Value Growth ‒ Maintained disciplined capital budget $3.8 billion(3) ‒ 2019 entry to 2019 exit BOE production growth ~13% (~15% per share)(4) • Opportunistic Acquisitions ‒ Execution on significant value adding acquisition
(1) Includes public debt retirement of C$1 billion and ~C$1.3 billion retirement of non-revolving term loan. (2) December 31, 2018 to forecasted year ending 2019 debt metrics, including major acquisition. (3) Excludes acquisition costs. (4) 2019 entry to exit production growth calculated as average targeted Q4/19 production versus average Q1/19 actual production. Q4/19 targeted production reflects Government of Alberta curtailment at November announced levels. UNEQUALLED ABILITY TO DELIVER ON OUR FOUR PILLARS 11
5 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canadian Natural 2020 Execution Priorities • Disciplined capital budget focused on free cash flow generation • Margin Growth and Asset Development ‒ Thermal in situ and Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading capture synergies ‒ Progress projects that add production/value in 2020 and beyond . Aligned with increased market access • Adhere to free cash flow allocation policy ‒ Increasing returns to shareholders ‒ Continue to strengthen the Balance Sheet • Enhance capital flexibility ‒ ~$1,565 million Conventional & Unconventional assets ‒ ~$2,485 million Long Life Low Decline assets
SAFE, SUSTAINABLE, EFFECTIVE & EFFICIENT OPERATIONS 12
Canadian Natural 2020 Budget
2020 Capital Budget ($ million) 2019F 2020B Total (1) $3,800 $4,050
Targeted Production 2019F 2020B % Change(2) Natural Gas (MMcf/d) 1,485 - 1,545 1,360 - 1,420 (8%) Total Liquids (Mbbl/d)(3) 839 - 888 910 - 970 9% Total MBOE/d 1,087 - 1,146 1,137 - 1,207 5%
(1) 2019F excludes asset acquisition costs. (2) Percent change of 2020B midpoint over 2019F midpoint. (3) Reflects planned downtime for turnaround activities and Canadian Natural’s 70% ownership in the AOSP. Note: Rounded to the nearest 1,000 bbl/d. Numbers may not add due to rounding. STRONG PRODUCTION PER SHARE GROWTH OF ~9% 13
6 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canadian Natural Leading Free Cash Flow
($ billion) $9.0 $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0
$1.0 Dividend Dividend(1) Dividend(1) $0.0 2018 2019F(2) 2020B Capital ($ billion) $4.7 $3.8 $4.05
Free Cash Flow +$5.00 WTI Incremental Free Cash Flow (1) Based upon current dividend. (2) Excludes acquisition costs. Note: Free cash flow represents adjusted funds flow less capital. See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. SUSTAINABLE FREE CASH FLOW 14
2020B Free Cash Flow Generation The Canadian Natural Opportunity
($ billion) $8.0
Adjusted Funds Flow ~$10.5 billion $7.0 Less: Budgeted Capital ~$4.05 billion ~$1.7 billion Less: Current Dividends* $6.0
Free Cash Flow $5.0 ~$4.8 billion $4.0
$3.0 Balance Sheet Share Strength Repurchases $2.0 ~$2.4 billion ~$2.4 billion
$1.0 WTI +$2.50 WTI +$5.00 WTI +$7.50 Free Cash Flow
*Based upon 2019 dividends paid. Dividends have historically been reviewed in the first quarter of the year. Incremental Free Cash Flow Note: See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. SIGNIFICANT TORQUE TO COMMODITY PRICE 15
7 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Robust, Economic, Long Life Low Decline Assets
Balanced Model – Production per Share Basis Price Impact on Production & Value
• Assets deliver free cash flow in low • Production per share price environment grows at a higher rate • Free cash flow allocation policy results in share repurchases • Production per share continues to grow • Production per share grows at a higher rate
Conventional & Unconventional Production
Commodity Price
Long Life Low Decline Production Production per Share Rate Share per Production Commodity Price Commodity Time
DELIVERS FREE CASH FLOW THROUGH THE CYCLE 17
8 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canadian Natural’s Advantage Low Corporate Decline Rate
BOE Production Mix Maintenance Capital of ~$3.7 billion required annually
Long Life Oil Sands Mining Low Decline & Upgrading Production ~62% ~0% Decline Pelican & Thermal ~10% Corporate ~13% Decline Decline Rate Conventional & Unconventional Conventional & ~19% Decline Unconventional Production ~38%
Note: Conventional & Unconventional assets include North America crude oil and NGLs, International crude oil and natural gas. LONG LIFE LOW DECLINE ASSETS REDUCE MAINTENANCE CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS 18
Maintenance Capital 2019F
(US$/BOE) $70 • Significantly lower maintenance capital requirements $60 ‒Strategic advantage of a Long Life Low $50 ~75% lower than Decline asset base the peer average $40 ‒Production of over 1,150,000 BOE/d maintained with investment of ~US$6/BOE $30 Peer Average • Allows for flexible project planning $20
$10 • Delivers safe, predictable and sustainable free cash flow CNQ $0 CNQ 2019F 2020B Peers Integrated Peers
Peers include: APA, DVN, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, MRO, SU. Note: US Peers are 2019 estimates and include only D&C capital. Integrated Peers and Canadian Natural includes all maintenance capital costs. Source: Barclays Research (No Treble, All “Base” Declines) and Company Reports. TOP TIER CAPITAL EFFICIENCY 19
9 Corporate Presentation February 2020
1P Reserves After Royalties 2018
(MMBOE) ~84% of reserves are Long Life Low Decline 9,000 Reserve Life Index ~24 years* 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000
4,000 CNQ 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Long Life Low Decline Integrated Peers Peers
*Reserve Life Index based upon 2018 Net Proved reserves, constant dollar over 2018 average net production. Excludes recently closed acquisition. Peers include: APA, APC, CVE, CHK, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU. Source: 2018 Net Proved reserves, constant dollar, per company reports. MASSIVE LOW COST RESOURCE TO DEVELOP 20
The Canadian Natural Advantage
Production Growth Free Cash Flow (MBOE/d) Potential ($ billion) Margin Growth ($ billion) Generation 3,000 $1.6 $9
$1.4 $8 2,500 $7 $1.2 2,000 $6 $1.0 $5 1,500 $0.8 $4 $0.6 1,000 $3 $0.4 $2 500 $0.2 $1 Dividend Dividend Dividend
0 $0.0 $0 2018 2019F 2020B Current Production (Q3/19) 2019 Captured Free Cash Flow Future Potential Targeted Future Potential +$5.00 WTI Incremental Free Cash Flow
Note: See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions, and pricing assumptions. LEADING FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION 21
10 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Increasing, Sustainable Returns to Shareholders with Significant Upside
Canadian Natural Returns to Shareholders • Disciplined allocation of capital delivers ($ million) 8,000 sustainable dividend policy
7,000 ~$10.8 billion returned ‒ 19 consecutive years of dividend increases to shareholders 6,000 2014 - 2019 . 12% increase over 2018 levels in March 2019 to quarterly dividend per common share 5,000 . $1.50 per common share annualized 4,000
3,000 • ~$3.2 billion in share repurchases and distributions* 2,000
1,000 ‒ 2018 share repurchases totalled ~30.9 million shares for an aggregate total of ~$1.3 billion 0 Dividends Share Purchases & ‒ 2019 share repurchases totalled ~25.9 million Distribution shares for an aggregate total ~$940 million 2014 - 2019*
*Includes PrairieSky distribution and shares repurchased from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2019. ~22% OF CURRENT MARKET CAP RETURNED TO SHAREHOLDERS (2014 - 2019) 23
11 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canadian Natural Returns to Shareholders
($ million) 3,000
2,500 19 years of dividend increases ~21% CAGR since inception 2,000 Horizon Phase 3 complete 1,500
1,000
500 Horizon Phase 1 build years
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Dividend Share Purchase PSK Distribution
*2019 share repurchases are as at December 31, 2019. Note: Based upon annualized dividends declared. HISTORY OF GROWING RETURNS TO SHAREHOLDERS 24
Canadian Natural Unique, Sustainable & Robust Dividend Growth
• Only 9 out of TSX60 companies across all sectors in Canada have increased dividends for 19 or more consecutive years • Canadian Natural is the only crude oil and natural gas E&P company in this group (CAGR) 24% Non-Energy Company 20% Energy Infrastructure Company Integrated Peer 16%
Average 12%
8%
4%
0% TSX60 Companies with 19 years or more consecutive dividend increases
Note: Energy related companies include: ENB, IMO and TRP. Non-energy companies include; CCL, CNR, FTS, SAP and MRU, all data sourced from Bloomberg & company reports. Excludes special dividends declared. LEADING, CANADIAN DIVIDEND GROWTH 25
12 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canadian Natural World Class Dividend Growth
(CAGR) 25% • Returns via dividends are unique, robust and sustainable 20% • Strong track record displays commitment 15% to dividend growth
10% • Canadian Natural increased dividend for 19 consecutive years 5% ‒ Only 2 of 6 supermajors with similar record 0% CNQ Supermajor Average CAGR 19 year CAGR 10 year CAGR 5 year
Note: Peers include BP, CVX, ENI, RDS, TOT and XOM. Data sourced from Bloomberg & company reports. Excludes special dividends declared. WORLD CLASS TRACK RECORD 26
Asset Overview
13 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Conventional & Unconventional Natural Gas, Light Crude Oil & NGLs Core Area Summary • Largest natural gas producer in Canada ‒ Q3/19 ~1,425 MMcf/d (1) BC AB SK MB ‒ 2P reserves 9.6 Tcf • Significant light crude oil and NGL production base in Canada ‒ Q3/19 ~96,100 bbl/d ‒ 2P reserves 665 million barrels(1) • High return international light crude oil ‒ Q3/19 ~48,700 bbl/d ‒ 2P reserves 307 million barrels(1)
CNQ Land Base Operating free cash flow ~$1.1 billion in 2019F(2)
(1) Company Gross proved plus probable reserves at December 31, 2018. (2) See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. TOP TIER ASSET BASE 28
Natural Gas, Light Crude Oil & NGLs Montney • Large inventory of defined drilling opportunities • Large contiguous land holdings Umbach BC AB ‒ ~1.0 million net acres West Nig
Graham Septimus • Liquids Enhancement & Gas Storage (LEGS) Pilot Stoddart Greater ‒ Septimus Pilot Septimus Wembley Pilot . Recovery within forecast range Greater Wembley . Injectivity/productivity suitable for gas storage Elmworth Gold Creek . Supports potential for incremental liquids Kakwa ‒ Next steps
nd rd Smoky . Septimus 2 and 3 cycles 2019 / Q1/20* Lean Gas (<10 bbl/MMcf) Wild River nd Liquids Rich Gas (10-100 bbl/MMcf) . 2 Pilot in Greater Wembley Mid 2020* Light Oil *Targeted timelines.
SIGNIFICANT VALUE GROWTH IN THE MONTNEY 29
14 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Technology & Innovation Liquids Enhancement & Gas Storage (LEGS)
600 1.3x-1.7x 500 Increased liquids rates/reserves from existing 400 Enhanced Liquids Recovery assets Increased 1.0x ~30% to 70% 300 margins & long-term Primary Liquids Recovery 200 value Price cycle optimization 100
0 Production Time2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Source: Society of Petroleum Engineers paper SPE-189816-MS presented March 13, 2018. RESOURCE POTENTIAL ~100 MILLION BARRELS 30
International Light Crude Oil
• Maximizing value through:
‒ Leveraging offshore expertise in Aberdeen North Sea ‒ Capturing low risk development opportunities
‒ Effective and efficient operations
. ~46% reduction in operating costs since 2015
‒ Leveraging technology and innovation
. Top tier drilling performance Côte d’Ivoire
Generating ~$580 million of operating free cash flow in 2019F* South Africa
*See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. MAXIMIZING FREE CASH FLOW GENERATION THROUGH EFFICIENCIES 31
15 Corporate Presentation February 2020
International South Africa • Significant gas condensate discovery in Q1/19 0 10 20 40km ‒ 5 structures identified with significant potential • 20% working interest ‒ Upfront cash consideration and financial carry ‒ Future bonus payments on commercial development • Next steps Brulpadda Proposed ‒ 2D and 3D seismic targeted for Q4/19 and 2020 1AX well LUI-1X location location ‒ Exploration well targeted for first half of 2020 ‒ Potential for an additional exploration well in 2020 contingent on results
LOW CAPITAL EXPOSURE TO SIGNIFICANT EXPLORATION OPPORTUNITY 32
Conventional & Unconventional Heavy Crude Oil Core Area Summary ~500 km • Largest primary heavy crude oil producer Cliffdale in Canada Pelican Lake ‒ Deep inventory of tradional CHOPS, multilateral and fishbone opportunities
AB SK ‒ Q3/19 production ~88,000 bbl/d Smith • Industry leading polymer flood at Pelican Lake ‒ Long Life Low Decline asset ~20 year reserve life ‒ Q3/19 production ~60,000 bbl/d • 2P reserves 697 million barrels(1)
CNQ Land Base CNQ Heavy Crude Oil Producing Properties Operating free cash flow Acquired Lands Bonnyville & (2) Acquired Crude Oil ~$1.1 billion in 2019F Producing Properties Lloydminster area
(1) Company Gross proved plus probable reserves at December 31, 2018. (2) See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. VAST LAND BASE & OWNED INFRASTRUCTURE MAXIMIZES VALUE 33
16 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Asset Overview
CNQ Thermal Producing Properties Birch Mtn. • Long Life Low Decline assets CNQ In Situ Project Inventory Peers ‒ 2P reserves 3.06 billion barrels(1) Ells River • Facility capacity of ~340,000 bbl/d(2) Liege ‒ Q3/19 production of ~206,400 bbl/d
Gregoire • 100% working interest and operatorship on developed properties Pelican • Leverage use of technology to enhance recovery and optimize costs Leismer ‒ Expertise in Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS), Steam
Peace River Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD), Steam Flood Jackfish Grouse and solvents Pike Kirby Operating free cash flow ~$1.1 billion in 2019F(3) Lindbergh Primrose (1) Company Gross proved plus probable reserves as at December 31, 2018. Excludes recently closed Wolf Lake Marie asset acquisition. Lake (2) Includes Jackfish, Kirby & Primrose/Wolf Lake facility capacities. (3) See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. GREAT ASSETS + TECHNOLOGY + INNOVATION = VALUE CREATION 34
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Primrose / Wolf Lake Overview • Total facility capacity ~140,000 bbl/d ‒ Q3/19 production of ~73,700 bbl/d • Leverage unutilized facility capacity of
Primrose North ~60,000 bbl/d Primrose East ‒ Average capital efficiency of ~$10,000/bbl/d ‒ Average CSS production of ~400 bbl/d per well(1) • ~307 net sections of undeveloped land with Primrose South decades of highly economic pad additions(2)
Wolf Lake ‒ High rate and recovery in early life of CSS Approved Project Areas Approved Development Areas ‒ ~2,000 locations(2) Drilled Development Pads Future Approved Pads • Steam Flood as a follow up to CSS increases Future Pads recovery factor by ~20% Facilities • Solvent technology upside
(1) First 12 month production average. (2) At US$50/bbl WTI and 22% WCS differential. LEVERAGE INFRASTRUCTURE TO ADD LOW COST, LOW DECLINE BARRELS 35
17 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Kirby / Jackfish SAGD Overview • Total facility capacity of ~200,000 bbl/d(1) ‒ Q3/19 production of ~129,000 bbl/d Kirby Jackfish North ‒ Kirby North ~40,000 bbl/d in early 2021 • Highly economic pad development to utilize facility capacity ‒ Adding ~21,000 bbl/d at Jackfish for ~$8 million(2)
Pike(3) ‒ Future pad adds capital efficiency ~$8,500/bbl/d • Consolidated land base with ~367 net sections Kirby South of undeveloped land ‒ Over 20 years of development opportunities Approved Project Areas • Economies of scale Approved Development Areas Drilled Development Pads ‒ Synergies drive lower operating costs Future Approved Pads Future Pads ‒ Leverage operating and technical expertise across Facilities operations (1) Includes Jackfish, Kirby South and Kirby North facilities. (2) Targeted completion and tie in costs. • Solvent technology upside (3) CNQ 50% working interest. LONG LIFE LOW DECLINE SAGD LAND BASE 36
Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Applying Technology & Innovation to Increase Margins
Steam to Oil Ratio (SOR) • Reservoir enhancements to reduce SOR by ~10% ‒ Improved steam conformance and well design ~10% • Using solvents to potentially reduce SOR by ~50% ‒ ~$1.00/bbl operating cost savings ‒ Targets to reduce GHG emissions intensity by ~50% ~50% ‒ Potential production capability increase of ~85% • Emerging new technologies ‒ Electromagnetic heating ‒ Lower cost water recycling and steam generation technology
~$3.6 billion in margin growth potential(1) ~$128 million in annual savings on Current Improved Solvents Future (2) SOR Reservoir SOR current and future operations Efficiencies (1) Assumes improvements captured over Company’s remaining total proved plus probable reserves, undiscounted. (2) At US$50/bbl WTI and 22% WCS differential. APPLYING TECHNOLOGIES TO IMPROVE MARGINS 37
18 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Overview
• Industry leading oil sands mine operator • Q3/19 production of ~432,200 bbl/d of SCO
CNQ Operating Oil Sands Mines • No decline, reservoir risk or reserve replacement cost CNQ Lands ‒ 2P reserves 7.03 billion barrels(1) ‒ 50+ year reserve life(2) • Significant resource in place ‒ 17.5 billion barrels BIIP(3) Horizon • Significant economies of scale AOSP • Top tier operating costs, reliability and utilization
Operating free cash flow (4)
~72 km ~72 ~$4.9 billion in 2019F
Fort McMurray (1) Company Gross proved plus probable reserves as at December 31, 2018. (2) Including future pit development. (3) Discovered Bitumen Initially-in-Place (BIIP). (4) See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. LONG LIFE NO DECLINE ASSETS 38
Horizon Oil Sands Operating Costs
($/bbl) $45.00
$40.00
$35.00 ~50% reduction in operating costs $30.00 equates to $25.00 ~$2.0 billion in additional margin $20.00 in 2019F
$15.00
$10.00 2013 2019(1) Cash Costs Fuel Costs(2) (1) Reflects YTD 2019 operating costs as at September 30, 2019. (2) Reflects natural gas costs used in operations. Note: Operating costs reflect production downtime for turnarounds (unadjusted). CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT MAXIMIZES VALUE 39
19 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Plant Capacity Utilization
(%) 100%
90%
80%
70% 3 year 5 year CNQ Peer Average
Note: Sourced from 2019 TD research, Mine your own Business reports. Peers Include: IMO, SU, Syncrude and Shell (for 2014-2016 data). CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT DRIVES HIGH SUSTAINABLE UTILIZATION 40
Horizon Oil Sands Paraffinic Froth Treatment Expansion
• Incremental production target of 40,000 bbl/d - 50,000 bbl/d of bitumen • Project utilizes excess capacity in extraction and OPP to produce diluted bitumen
‒ Utilize excess naphtha in SCO to dilute and transport product ‒ Potential for lean froth currently being tested in extraction • Engineering and design specification work underway • Favorable preliminary capital efficiencies
‒ Targeted total capital required of ~$1.4 billion
Potential operating cost savings of $0.50/bbl - $1.50/bbl Targeting $55 million - $165 million in annual margin growth
HIGH QUALITY ECONOMIC PRODUCTION GROWTH 41
20 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Horizon Oil Sands Reliability Opportunities • Reliability opportunities provide incremental economic production ‒ Incremental 35,000 bbl/d - 45,000 bbl/d of SCO • Stage 1B – Reliability improvements on Diluent Recovery Unit ‒ Improves long term reliability • Stage 2 – Increased reliability and productive capacity ‒ Increase capacity in process equipment and improve metallurgy ‒ Increase capacity in hydrotreaters and Diluent Recovery Unit ‒ Additional Sulphur Recovery Unit
Potential operating cost savings of $1.00/bbl - $2.00/bbl Targeting $110 million - $220 million in annual margin growth
IMPROVED RELIABILITY & VALUE ENHANCEMENT 42
Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Margin Enhancing Opportunity In-Pit Extraction Process (IPEP)
• IPEP is a modular extraction plant that separates bitumen in the mine pit • Benefits ‒ Reduces GHG emissions by ~40% ‒ Eliminates tailings ponds, as it produces dry
stackable tailings IPEP Field Pilot at Horizon ‒ Significant potential reclamation savings
Targeted operating cost savings of $2.00/bbl - $3.00/bbl
Example of dry tailings produced
ADVANCING TAILINGS MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGIES 43
21 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Marketing
Canadian Natural Balanced Portfolio of Natural Gas Sales
2020B Diversified sales points enhances margins by ~$230 million through 2019 & 2020
Canadian Exports 37% Natural Exports MMcf/d Requirement 47% Dawn (Ontario) 160 Empress 190
AECO Emerson (Minnesota) 100 3% Sales California 70 13% International
Note: Based upon midpoint of 2020B corporate natural gas guidance. Incremental margin based upon the difference in forecasted export pricing vs. forecasted AECO pricing. DIVERSIFIED SALES POINTS DRIVE MARGIN GROWTH 45
22 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Near-Term Crude Oil Outlook Incremental Egress Targeted Capacity Timing Enbridge Mainline Optimization ~100 Mbbl/d Today Base Keystone Optimization ~50 Mbbl/d Q1/20 Express Optimization ~50 Mbbl/d Q1/20 NWR Refining ~40 Mbbl/d Q1/20 APMC Rail Contracts ~120 Mbbl/d Q4/19 - Q2/20 Estimated Incremental Industry Rail ~100 Mbbl/d Q4/19 - Q3/20 Total ~460 Mbbl/d
Incremental near-term takeaway capacity TMX ~590 Mbbl/d almost equivalent to a major export pipeline
Note: NWR incremental capacity as a result of ~80,000 bbl/d increase heavy crude oil; ~40,000 bbl/d decrease light crude oil. EFFECTIVE TAKEAWAY OPPORTUNITY 46
Crude Oil Export Pipelines
PADD II Enbridge Line 3 ~370,000 bbl/d in 2020* Superior, WI Replacement Common Carrier
US Gulf Coast Keystone XL ~830,000 bbl/d in 2022* CNQ 200,000 bbl/d
Tidewater – West Ridge Trans Mountain ~590,000 bbl/d mid-2022* Terminal & PADD V Expansion CNQ 94,000 bbl/d
*Based upon publically announced targeted timing. INCREMENTAL WCSB EGRESS IS PROGRESSING 47
23 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Balance Sheet Strength
Canadian Natural Robust Financial Position
Long-Term Ratings Outlook Short-Term Ratings
DBRS BBB High Stable n/a Standard & Poor’s BBB+ Stable A-2 Moody’s Baa2 Stable P-2
• Target to exit 2019 with stronger debt metrics than 2018 year end • Balance Sheet strengthens despite material accretive acquisition completed in 2019 • Debt to book capitalization at or below 38% • Debt to adjusted EBITDA at or below 1.9x • Robust financial position as of September 30, 2019 ‒ Available liquidity $4.7 billion*
*Includes cash and cash equivalents. Note: See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions, and pricing assumptions. DELIVERING ON OUR FINANCIAL PLAN 49
24 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canadian Natural Balance Sheet Strength Debt/Book Cap Debt/EBITDA (%) (x) 45% 3.5
3.0 ~2.7x ~41% 2.5 40% 2.0 ~1.6x 1.5 ~35% 35% 1.0
0.5
30% 0.0 2017 2020B 2017 2020B Actual Forecast
Note: See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions, and pricing assumptions. STRONG & IMPROVING FINANCIAL METRICS 50
Long Term Sustainability
25 Corporate Presentation February 2020
The World Needs More Canadian Energy
(Aggregate ESG Score) (1) 300 Environment Social(2) 250 Governance(3)
200
Average 150
100
50
0
(1) 2018 Yale Environment Protection Index (EPI). (2) 2018 Social Progress Index (SPI) prepared by Social Progress Imperative. (3) 2018 World Governance Indicators (WGI), Regulatory Quality Score. *Iraq, Kuwait and Venezuela social score not shown due to insufficient data. TOP OIL EXPORTING NATIONS IN THE WORLD 52
The Strength of Canadian Natural’s Business Model
• Leaders in ESG performance
• Advantaged assets for downside scenarios
• Leverage technology, innovation and continuous improvement
‒ Delivered game changing environmental performance
• Journey to net zero emissions in oil sands
• Canadian oil & natural gas on global markets reduces global GHG emissions
Canadian Natural should be an ESG investment priority
UNIQUE, SUSTAINABLE & ROBUST INCLUDING ESG 53
26 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Governance Risk Assessment & Mitigation • Strong track record of identifying, assessing, adapting, aligning and executing • Board of Directors as well as Board Governance and Risk Committees ‒ Review and hold management accountable to identify and mitigate risks • Strong, effective strategies to plans and address risks ‒ Financial, Operational, Market, Technology, Environmental, Social, Governance, Safety, Asset Integrity Board of Directors
Health, Safety, Asset Integrity and Nominating, Governance and Environmental Committee Risk Committee
Management Committee
Marketing Finance Environmental, Social, Governance Operations Technology
STRONG GOVERNANCE 54
Governance Management Aligned With Shareholders Management Ownership (% of Outstanding Shares) 2.5% ~2.4%
2.0% Substantial Management & Director invested wealth delivers clear alignment with shareholder interests
1.5%
1.0% CNQ
0.5%
0.0% Peers Integrated Peers
Peers include APA, CVE, DVN, ECA, EOG, PXD and SU. Note: Based on share ownership data from June 2019 (excluding options). Outstanding shares as at Q2/19 for peers per Bloomberg. Source: SEDI and BD Corporate. MANAGEMENT ALIGNED WITH SHAREHOLDER INTERESTS 55
27 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Social Performance Investing in Indigenous Communities
~$500 Million IN CONTRACTS WITH LOCAL INDIGENOUS BUSINESSES IN 2018
~$1.2 Billion IN LAST 3 YEARS
188 Indigenous Companies DOING BUSINESS WITH CANADIAN NATURAL 41 COMMUNITIES IN WESTERN CANADA
INVESTING IN COMMUNITIES WHERE WE LIVE & WORK 56
Social Performance Abandonment & Reclamation
(Wells) 2,100 Industry Leader in 1,800 AER approved Abandonment & Reclamation ABC* pilots 1,500 1,293 INACTIVE WELLS ABANDONED 1,200 IN 2018 900 Adopted ABC* planning ~2,000 600 TARGETED WELLS ABANDONED IN 2019F 300
0 2016 2017 2018 2019F Number of Wells Abandoned
*Area based closures. PROACTIVELY REDUCING OUR ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT 57
28 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Canada’s Crude Oil & Natural Gas Sector Has Delivered Advancing Innovation
• Recognized a need to reduce GHG emissions ~$3.4 Billion INVESTED BY • Leverage technology and Canadian ingenuity CANADIAN NATURAL • Opportunities to reduce emissions further IN R&D SINCE 2009
Reduced Environmental Footprint Unlock Reserves Increase Production Effective & Efficient Operations – Lowers costs
ONE OF CANADA’S LEADING R&D INVESTORS 58
Continuous Improvement in GHG Emissions Horizon Oil Sands
GHG Emissions Intensity
(tonnes CO2e/BOE) 0.11 ~37% 0.10 REDUCTION IN GHGs SINCE 2012
0.09 EQUIVALENT TO REMOVING ~665,000 0.08 CARS OFF THE ROAD ANNUALLY*
0.07
0.06 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
*Relative to 2012 performance. Note: Represents GHG emissions intensity at Horizon Oil Sands. CONTINUING TO REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT 59
29 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Continuous Improvement in GHG Emissions Heavy Crude Oil
Primary Heavy Oil Venting • Solution Gas Conservation has (e3m3/year) reduced GHG emissions 250,000
200,000 ~78% REDUCTION IN ABSOLUTE VENT 150,000 VOLUMES SINCE 2012
100,000 EQUIVALENT TO REMOVING ~930,000 50,000 CARS OFF THE ROAD ANNUALLY*
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
*Relative to 2012 performance; includes reductions in Primary Heavy crude oil venting and Primrose/Wolf Lake CSS flaring. Note: 2012 is the reference point for the Government of Canada’s methane reduction target. STRENGTHENING ENVIRONMENTAL INITIATIVES 60
Conventional Heavy Oil Pilot Zero Emission Primary Heavy Oil Pad Site
• Canadian Natural is piloting zero emissions from Vapor reservoir to storage tank in primary heavy oil Recovery Unit ‒ Canadian Natural is at the forefront of innovative emission reduction initiatives
. This pilot is believed to be among the first of its kind
Electric Drive TANK VAPOR Well Head OIL Tank Emulsion WATER Heater 0
SAND CARBON & METHANE EMISSIONS Gas
Sales 100% OF ALL METHANE & CO2 VENTING CAPTURED
Solution Gas Compressor Driven by Electricity. JOURNEY TO NET ZERO IN CONVENTIONAL HEAVY OIL 61
30 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Carbon Capture & Sequestration / Storage Technology
Quest TOP TIER (1) CO2 CAPTURER AND SEQUESTERER IN THE WORLD
• Reduced CO2 footprint
• Reduced CO2 charges
Tonnes per Year Horizon EQUIVALENT TO Quest(2) ~1.1 million REMOVING Horizon ~0.4 million ~576,000 NWR(3) ~1.2 million CARS OFF THE ROAD ANNUALLY ~2.7 million
(1) Per the Global CCS Institute. (2) Canadian Natural is a 70% working interest owner in Quest. (3) Canadian Natural is a 50% owner in NWR. LEADING CANADA IN CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE 62
Oil Sands Well-to-Combustion
GHG Emissions Intensity (tonnes CO2e/bbl) Realized Success 0.7 2009 Intensity 0.6 US Refined Average 0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 US Saudi Arabia Typical Russia Libya Waha CNQ Oil CNQ Kirby Anglo Kutto Norway Iraq Kirkuk China CNQ Oil Brazil Frade Iran Marun US Alaska US US Texas Iraq Zubair Nigeria Nigeria Venezuala Indonesi Oil Sands US US Wyoming Ghawar SAGD SOR Samatlor Sands SAGD Oseberg Bozhong Sands 2018 North Slope California Eagle Ford Escravos Bonny Hamaca Duri FCC & HC California California WC 2 Pathway Wilmington Condensate Beach SCO ~2009 South Midway Zone Belridge Sunset
Note: Total emissions intensity includes: production and upgrading, transportation, refining, transportation of refined product and combustion. Canadian Natural Oil Sands includes Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading and Thermal Crude Oil. Source: Internal company reports and ARC Energy Research Institute 2017 Report. CLEAR DEFINED GOAL TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS 63
31 Corporate Presentation February 2020
Capturing Oil Sands Technological Improvements Journey to Net Zero Emissions
GHG Emissions Intensity(1) (tonnes CO2e/bbl) 0.54
0.52 US Refined Average(2) 0.50
0.48 Targeting 0.46 net zero oil sands direct and indirect 0.44 emissions 0.42
0.40 2018 Current Future Future Intensity after Aspiration Net Technology Technology Techology Mitigation Zero Execution Execution Development (1) GHG emissions intensity reflects Canadian Natural’s oil sands operations, including Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading and Thermal Crude Oil. (2) US Refined Average emissions intensity includes: production and upgrading, transportation, refining, transportation of refined product and combustion. JOURNEY TO CONTINUE TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS 64
Canadian Natural Committed to Environmental Performance
• Stated targets going forward
Already Delivered ‒ Reduce oil sands GHG emissions intensity by 25% by 2025 Game Changing Performance . From 2016 base line ‒ Reduce E&P methane emissions by 20% by 2025
. From 2016 baseline
‒ Reduce in situ fresh water intensity by 50% by 2022 Committed to Enhancing . From 2012 baseline Performance ‒ Reduce mining fresh river water intensity by 30% by 2022
. From 2012 baseline
DELIVERING GAME CHANGING PERFORMANCE 65
32 Notes Advisory
Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements relating to Canadian Natural Resources Limited (the “Company”) in this document or documents incorporated herein by reference constitute forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “target”, “continue”, “could”, “intend”, “may”, “potential”, “predict”, “should”, “will”, “objective”, “project”, “forecast”, “goal”, “guidance”, “outlook”, “effort”, “seeks”, “schedule”, “proposed” or expressions of a similar nature suggesting future outcome or statements regarding an outlook. Disclosure related to expected future commodity pricing, forecast or anticipated production volumes, royalties, production expenses, capital expenditures, income tax expenses and other guidance provided throughout this Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) of the financial condition and results of operations of the Company, constitute forward-looking statements. Disclosure of plans relating to and expected results of existing and future developments, including but not limited to the Horizon Oil Sands ("Horizon"), the Athabasca Oil Sands Project ("AOSP"), Primrose thermal projects, the Pelican Lake water and polymer flood project, the Kirby Thermal Oil Sands Project, the Jackfish Thermal Oil Sands Project, the timing and future operations of the North West Redwater bitumen upgrader and refinery, construction by third parties of new, or expansion of existing, pipeline capacity or other means of transportation of bitumen, crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids ("NGLs") or synthetic crude oil (“SCO”) that the Company may be reliant upon to transport its products to market, and the development and deployment of technology and technological innovations also constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on annual budgets and multi-year forecasts, and are reviewed and revised throughout the year as necessary in the context of targeted financial ratios, project returns, product pricing expectations and balance in project risk and time horizons. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks. The reader should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as there can be no assurances that the plans, initiatives or expectations upon which they are based will occur.
In addition, statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitably produced in the future. There are numerous uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of proved and proved plus probable crude oil, natural gas and NGLs reserves and in projecting future rates of production and the timing of development expenditures. The total amount or timing of actual future production may vary significantly from reserves and production estimates.
The forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the Company and the industry in which the Company operates, which speak only as of the date such statements were made or as of the date of the report or document in which they are contained, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, among others: general economic and business conditions which will, among other things, impact demand for and market prices of the Company’s products; volatility of and assumptions regarding crude oil and natural gas prices; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; assumptions on which the Company’s current guidance is based; economic conditions in the countries and regions in which the Company conducts business; political uncertainty, including actions of or against terrorists, insurgent groups or other conflict including conflict between states; industry capacity; ability of the Company to implement its business strategy, including exploration and development activities; impact of competition; the Company’s defense of lawsuits; availability and cost of seismic, drilling and other equipment; ability of the Company and its subsidiaries to complete capital programs; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ ability to secure adequate transportation for its products; unexpected disruptions or delays in the resumption of the mining, extracting or upgrading of the Company’s bitumen products; potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; ability of the Company to attract the necessary labour required to build its thermal and oil sands mining projects; operating hazards and other difficulties inherent in the exploration for and production and sale of crude oil and natural gas and in mining, extracting or upgrading the Company’s bitumen products; availability and cost of financing; the Company’s and its subsidiaries’ success of exploration and development activities and its ability to replace and expand crude oil and natural gas reserves; timing and success of integrating the business and operations of acquired companies and assets; production levels; imprecision of reserves estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs not currently classified as proved; actions by governmental authorities (including production curtailments mandated by the Government of Alberta); government regulations and the expenditures required to comply with them (especially safety and environmental laws and regulations and the impact of climate change initiatives on capital expenditures and production expenses); asset retirement obligations; the adequacy of the Company’s provision for taxes; and other circumstances affecting revenues and expenses.
The Company’s operations have been, and in the future may be, affected by political developments and by national, federal, provincial and local laws and regulations such as restrictions on production, changes in taxes, royalties and other amounts payable to governments or governmental agencies, price or gathering rate controls and environmental protection regulations. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of the Company’s assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward- looking statements. The impact of any one factor on a particular forward-looking statement is not determinable with certainty as such factors are dependent upon other factors, and the Company’s course of action would depend upon its assessment of the future considering all information then available.
Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Unpredictable or unknown factors not discussed in the Company's MD&A could also have adverse effects on forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the expectations conveyed by the forward- looking statements are reasonable based on information available to it on the date such forward-looking statements are made, no assurances can be given as to future results, levels of activity and achievements. All subsequent forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, attributable to the Company or persons acting on its behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. Except as required by applicable law, the Company assumes no obligation to update forward-looking statements in the Company's MD&A, whether as a result of new information, future events or other factors, or the foregoing factors affecting this information, should circumstances or the Company’s estimatesor opinions change. Advisory
Special Note Regarding non-GAAP and other Financial Measures This presentation includes references to financial measures commonly used in the crude oil and natural gas industry, such as: adjusted net earnings from operations; adjusted funds flow (previously referred to as funds flow from operations) and net capital expenditures. These financial measures are not defined by International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") and therefore are referred to as non-GAAP measures. The non- GAAP measures used by the Company may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The Company uses these non- GAAP measures to evaluate its performance. The non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to or more meaningful than net earnings, cash flows from operating activities, and cash flows used in investing activities, as determined in accordance with IFRS, as an indication of the Company's performance. Adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations is a non-GAAP measure that represents net earnings (loss) as presented in the Company's consolidated Statements of Earnings (Loss), adjusted for the after-tax effects of certain items of a non-operational nature. The Company considers adjusted net earnings (loss) from operations a key measure in evaluating its performance, as it demonstrates the Company's ability to generate after-tax operating earnings from its core business areas. The reconciliation “Adjusted Net Earnings (Loss) from Operations, as Reconciled to Net Earnings (Loss)" is presented in the Company’s MD&A. Adjusted funds flow (previously referred to as funds flow from operations) is a non-GAAP measure that represents cash flows from operating activities as presented in the Company's consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, adjusted for the net change in non-cash working capital, abandonment expenditures and movements in other long-term assets, including the unamortized cost of the share bonus program and prepaid cost of service tolls. The Company considers adjusted funds flow a key measure as it demonstrates the Company’s ability to generate the cash flow necessary to fund future growth through capital investment and to repay debt. The reconciliation “Adjusted Funds Flow, as Reconciled to Cash Flows from Operating Activities” is presented in the Company’s MD&A. Net capital expenditures is a non-GAAP measure that represents cash flows used in investing activities as presented in the Company's consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, adjusted for the net change in non-cash working capital, investment in other long-term assets, share consideration in business acquisitions and abandonment expenditures. The Company considers net capital expenditures a key measure as it provides an understanding of the Company’s capital spending activities in comparison to the Company's annual capital budget. The reconciliation “Net Capital Expenditures, as Reconciled to Cash Flows used in Investing Activities” is presented in the Net Capital Expenditures section of the Company’s MD&A. Free cash flow is a non-GAAP measure that represents cash flows from operating activities as presented in the Company's consolidated Statements of Cash Flows, adjusted for the net change in non-cash working capital from operating activities, abandonment, certain movements in other long-term assets, less net capital expenditures and dividends on common shares. The Company considers free cash flow a key measure in demonstrating the Company’s ability to generate cash flow to fund future growth through capital investment, pay returns to shareholders, and to repay debt. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that represents net earnings (loss) as presented in the Company's consolidated Statements of Earnings (Loss), adjusted for interest, taxes, depletion, depreciation and amortization, share-based compensation expense (recovery), unrealized risk management gains (losses), unrealized foreign exchange gains (losses), and accretion of the Company’s asset retirement obligation. The Company considers adjusted EBITDA a key measure in evaluating its operating profitability by excluding non-cash items. Debt to Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that is derived as the current and long-term portions of long-term debt, divided by the 12 month trailing Adjusted EBITDA, as defined above. The Company considers this ratio to be a key measure in evaluating the Company's ability to repay long-term debt. Debt to cash flow is a non-GAAP measure that is derived as the current and long term portions of long-term debt, divided by the 12 month trailing adjusted funds flow, as defined above. The Company considers this ratio to be a key measure in evaluating the Company's ability to repay long- term debt. Debt to book capitalization is a non-GAAP measure that is derived as net current and long-term debt, divided by the book value of common shareholders' equity plus net current and long-term debt. The Company considers this ratio to be a key measure in evaluating the Company's ability to repay long-term debt. Available liquidity is a non-GAAP measure that is derived as cash and cash equivalents, total bank and term credit facilities (reported as long-term debt), less amounts drawn on the bank and credit facilities including under the commercial paper program. The Company considers available liquidity a key measure in evaluating the sustainability of the Company’s operations and ability to fund future growth. See note 8 - Long-term Debt in the Company’s consolidated financial statements. Special Note Regarding Currency, Financial Information and Production and Reserves This presentation should be read in conjunction with the Company's MD&A and the unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019 and the MD&A and the audited consolidated financial statements of the Company for the year ended December 31, 2018. All dollar amounts are referenced in millions of Canadian dollars, except where noted otherwise. The Company’s unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019 and the Company's MD&A have been prepared in accordance with IFRS as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board ("IASB"). Changes in the Company's accounting policies in accordance with IFRS, including the adoption of IFRS 16 "Leases" on January 1, 2019, are discussed in the "Changes in Accounting Policies" section of the Company's MD&A. In accordance with the new "Leases" standard, comparative period balances in 2018 reported in the Company's MD&A have not been restated. Production volumes and per unit statistics are presented throughout the Company's MD&A on a “before royalties” or “company gross” basis, and realized prices are net of blending and feedstock costs and exclude the effect of risk management activities. In addition, reference is made to crude oil and natural gas in common units called barrel of oil equivalent ("BOE"). A BOE is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) of natural gas to one barrel (“bbl”) of crude oil (6 Mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6 Mcf:1 bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In comparing the value ratio using current crude oil prices relative to natural gas prices, the 6 Mcf:1 bbl conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value. In addition, for the purposes of the Company's MD&A, crude oil is defined to include the following commodities: light and medium crude oil, primary heavy crude oil, Pelican Lake heavy crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), and SCO. Production on an “after royalties” or “company net” basis is also presented in the Company's MD&A for information purposes only. For the year ended December 31, 2018, the Company retained Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluators (“IQRE”), Sproule Associates Limited and Sproule International Limited (together as “Sproule”) and GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. (“GLJ”), to evaluate and review all of the Company’s proved and proved plus probable reserves with an effective date of December 31, 2018 and a preparation date of February 4, 2019. Sproule evaluated and reviewed the North America and International light and medium crude oil, primary heavy crude oil, Pelican Lake heavy crude oil, bitumen (thermal oil), natural gas and NGLs reserves. GLJ evaluated the Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading SCO reserves. The evaluations and reviews were conducted in accordance with the standards contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (“COGE Handbook”) and disclosed in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”) requirements. The Company annually discloses net proved reserves and the standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows using 12-month average prices and current costs in accordance with United States Financial Accounting Standards Board Topic 932 “Extractive Activities - Oil and Gas” in the Company’s annual report on Form 40-F filed with the SEC and in the “Supplementary Oil and Gas Information” section of the Company’s Annual Report on pages 98 to 105 which isincorporated herein by reference. Additional information relating to the Company, including its Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2018, is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com, and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov. Detailed guidance on production levels, capital expenditures and production expenses can be found on the Company's website at www.cnrl.com, provided that such guidance does not form part of and is not incorporated by reference in the Company's MD&A. Advisory Cautionary Statement Project progress and financial results are dependent upon economic and regulatory conditions, commodity prices, global economic factors, project sanction and capital allocation. Of the approximately 5,000 potential locations quoted in the Conventional and Unconventional section of this presentation, locations consist of the following: • 2,920 locations have proved plus probable reserves at December 31, 2018 that were evaluated in accordance to COGEH standards by an Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluator. • Approximately 2,080 locations have been internally evaluated by Qualified Reserves Evaluators in accordance to COGEH standards and are subject to Company final investment decision. The approximate 2,000 potential locations quoted in the Thermal in situ Oil Sands section of this presentation have proved plus probable reserves at December 31, 2018 that were evaluated in accordance to COGEH standards by an Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluator. Thermal In Situ Oil Sands Portfolio – Clearwater, McMurray, Bluesky, Grand Rapids and Grosmont formations. ~122 billion barrels of Discovered Bitumen Initially-in-place is comprised of: • 3.1 billion barrels of proved plus probable reserves at December 31, 2018 that were evaluated in accordance to COGEH standards by an Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluator • 0.7 billion barrels of produced Bitumen to December 31, 2018 • Development of remaining volume is subject to company final investment decisions • A portion of the remaining volume may not be recoverable with current technology Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading Overview. ~17.5 billion barrels of Discovered Bitumen Initially-in-place is comprised of: • 8.7 billion barrels of Bitumen associated with 7.0 billion barrels of proved plus probable SCO reserves at December 31, 2018 that were evaluated in accordance to COGEH standards by an Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluator • 1.5 billion barrels of produced Bitumen to December 31, 2018 • Development of remaining volume is subject to company final investment decisions • A portion of the remaining volume may not be recoverable with current technology Definitions and Non-GAAP Measures Absolute Debt – see definition for total debt. Adjusted EBITDA – earnings before interest, taxes, depletion and amortization adjusted for share-based compensation expenses/(recovery), unrealized risk management gains/(losses), unrealized foreign exchange gains/(losses), and accretion expenses of the Company’s asset retirement obligation. CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate – the compounded growth rate for a specific value on an annual basis in a defined time range. CFPS – Cash Flow per Share – adjusted funds flow (see the Company’s MD&A for definition) divided by the weighted average common shares outstanding at the end of the period. Debt to Book Capital – net current and long-term debt divided by the book value of common shareholders’ equity plus net current and long-term debt. Debt to EBITDA – long-term debt plus the current portion of long-term debt divided by the 12 month trailing adjusted EBITDA. Debt per Net BOE Reserves – long-term debt plus the current portion of long-term debt divided by Company net (before royalties) reserves on a BOE basis. Dividend Yield – annualized dividend declared divided by the Company’s share price at a given point in time. FD&A – Finding, Development and Acquisition costs – the sum of total exploration, development and acquisition capital costs divided by total reserves additions and revisions for the relevant reserve category. Free Cash Flow – adjusted funds flow (see the Company’s MD&A for definition) less net capital expenditures and current dividends. Free Cash Flow Yield – adjusted funds flow (see the Company’s MD&A for definition) divided by the Company’s market capitalization at a given point in time. Market Capitalization (Market Cap) – outstanding common shares times the Company’s share price at a given point of time. Operating Free Cash Flow – operating netback times sales volumes before administration costs, interest, foreign exchange and taxes less net capital expenditures before acquisitions of non-producing properties, capitalized interest and capitalized share-based compensation. Operating Netback – production revenues, excluding realized gains and losses on commodity hedges, less transportation and blending, royalties and production expenses on a per unit basis. Production per Share – average production volumes divided by weighted average common shares outstanding at the end of the period. Recycle Ratio – operating netback divided by the FD&A. Total Debt – long-term debt and current portion of long-term debt. Advisory
Pricing Assumptions November 7, 2019 December 4, 2019 2019F 2020 Budget 2018 Guidance Guidance Strip US$ WTI/bbl $ 64.78 $ 56.90 $ 55.77 C$ AECO/GJ $ 1.45 $ 1.40 $ 1.83 SCO Diff/(prem) US$/bbl $ 6.16 $ 0.74 $ 1.45 WCS Differential US$/bbl $ 26.29 $ 13.75 $ 12.71 FX 1.00 US$ = X C$ $ 1.2959 $ 1.3233 $ 1.3299 FX 1.00 GBP = X C$ $ 1.7299 $ 1.6878 $ 1.7295
Glossary of Terms AECO – Alberta Energy Company (benchmark pricing) AOSP – Athabasca Oil Sands Project APMC – Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission BOE – barrels of oil equivalent BBL – barrels of oil Bcf – billion cubic feet bcm – billion cubic meters CAPP – Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers CHOPS – cold heavy oil production with sand E&P – Exploration and Production ESG – Environment, Social and Governance EUR – estimated ultimate recovery FID – final investment decision GHG – greenhouse gas IP365 – initial average production rate of 365 days KXL – Keystone XL LNG – liquefied natural gas MMcf – million cubic feet NGL – natural gas liquids NPV – net present value NWR – North West Redwater Refinery OPP – ore preparation plant R&D – Research and Development SCO – synthetic crude oil SOR – steam to oil ratio Tcf – trillion cubic feet TCPL – TransCanada pipelines TMX – Transmountain Pipeline Expansion USGC – United States Gulf Coast WCS – Western Canadian Select WCSB – Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin WTI – West Texas Intermediate (benchmark pricing) Advisory
Reserves Notes: (1) Company Gross reserves are working interest share before deduction of royalties and excluding any royalty interests. (2) Company Net reserves are working interest share after deduction of royalties and including any royalty interests. (3) BOE values may not calculate due to rounding. (4) Forecast pricing assumptions utilized by the Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluators in the reserves estimates were provided by Sproule Associates Limited:
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Crude oil and NGL WTI at Cushing (US$/bbl) 63.00 67.00 70.00 71.40 72.83 Western Canada Select (C$/bbl) 59.47 62.31 67.45 69.53 71.66 Canadian Light Sweet (C$/bbl) 75.27 77.89 82.25 84.79 87.39 Cromer LSB (C$/bbl) 75.27 76.89 81.25 83.79 86.39 Edmonton Pentanes+ (C$/bbl) 75.32 80.00 83.75 85.50 87.29 North Sea Brent (US$/bbl) 70.00 72.00 73.00 74.46 75.95 Natural gas AECO (C$/MMBtu) 1.95 2.44 3.00 3.21 3.30 BC Westcoast Station 2 (C$/MMBtu) 1.35 1.94 2.60 2.81 2.90 Henry Hub (US$/MMBtu) 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.57 3.64
Note: All prices increase at a rate of 2%/year after 2023. A foreign exchange rate of 0.7700 US$/C$ for 2019 and 0.8000 US$/C$ after 2019 was used in the 2018 evaluation. (5) A barrel of oil equivalent (“BOE”) is derived by converting six thousand cubic feet of natural gas to one barrel of crude oil (6 Mcf:1 bbl). This conversion may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation, since the 6 Mcf:1 bbl ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In comparing the value ratio using current crude oil prices relative to natural gas prices, the 6 Mcf:1 bbl conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value. (6) Metrics included herein are commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry and are determined by Canadian Natural as set out in the notes below. These metrics do not have standardized meanings and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies and may be misleading when making comparisons. Management uses these metrics to evaluate Canadian Natural’s performance over time. However, such measures are not reliable indicators of Canadian Natural’s future performance and future performance may vary. (7) Reserves additions and revisions are comprised of all categories of Company Gross reserves changes, exclusive of production. (8) Reserves replacement or Production replacement ratio is the Company Gross reserves additions and revisions, for the relevant reserves category, divided by the Company Gross production in the same period. (9) Reserves Life Index is based on the amount for the relevant reserves category divided by the 2019 proved developed producing production forecast prepared by the Independent Qualified Reserves Evaluators. (10) Finding, Development and Acquisition ("FD&A") costs are calculated by dividing the sum of total exploration, development and acquisition capital costs incurred in 2018 by the sum of total additions and revisions for the relevant reserves category. All values used in the calculation are not rounded. (11) FD&A costs including changes in Future Development Capital ("FDC") are calculated by dividing the sum of total exploration, development and acquisition capital costs incurred in 2018 and net changes in FDC from December 31, 2017 to December 31, 2018 by the sum of total additions and revisions for the relevant reserves category. FDC excludes all abandonment and reclamation costs. All values used in the calculation are not rounded. (12) Recycle Ratio is the operating netback ($27.13/BOE for 2018) divided by the FD&A (in $/BOE). Operating netback is production revenues, excluding realized gains and losses on commodity hedging, less royalties, transportation and production expenses, calculated on a per BOE basis. (13) Abandonment and reclamation costs included in the calculation of the Future Net Revenue (FNR) for 2018 consist of both forecast estimates of abandonment and reclamation costs attributable to future development activity, as well as certain costs already included in the Company’s Asset Retirement Obligation (ARO) for development existing as at December 31, 2018. The portion of the Company’s estimated ARO included in the reserves FNR is escalated at 2.0% per year after 2019. Specifically, for North America (excluding SCO assets), FNR includes the ARO costs associated with abandonment and reclamation of wells (wells, well sites, well site equipment and pipelines) with assigned reserves. For SCO assets, FNR includes the ARO costs associated with the abandonment and reclamation of the mine site and all mining facilities and for Horizon assets, it also includes abandonment and reclamation of the upgrading facilities. For North Sea and Offshore Africa, FNR includes the ARO costs associated with the abandonment and reclamation of offshore wells and facilities with assigned reserves. Hedging
At September 30, 2019, the Company had the following derivative financial instruments outstanding to manage its commodity price risk:
Remaining Weighted Sales Contracts term Volume average price Index Natural Gas AECO basic swaps Nov 2019 - Mar 2020 95,000 MMbtu/d US$0.96 NYMEX
AECO fixed price swaps Apr 2020 – Oct 2020 102,500 GJ/d C$1.51 AECO
Oct 2019 115,000 GJ/d C$1.32 AECO
Note: The Company’s outstanding commodity derivative financial instruments are expected to be settled monthly based on the applicable index pricing for the respective contract month. Key Historic Data
Operational & Financial Information 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Daily production, before royalties Crude oil and NGLs (Mbbl/d) 478 531 564 524 685 821 Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,158 1,555 1,726 1,691 1,662 1,548 Barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE/d) 671 790 852 806 962 1,079 Daily production, after royalties Crude oil and NGLs (Mbbl/d) 414 451 512 482 629 752 Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,104 1,432 1,667 1,627 1,587 1487 Barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE/d) 598 689 790 753 894 1,000 Proved reserves, after royalties Crude oil and NGLs (MMbbl) 1,767 1,898 1,864 1,922 2,070 2,237 Natural gas (bcf) 3,813 5,173 5,443 5,909 6,068 6,053 Mining reserves, SCO (MMbbl) 1,827 1,764 2,013 2,195 4,543 5,117 Barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) 4,230 4,524 4,784 5,102 7,625 8,363 Drilling activity, net wells Crude oil 1,117 1,023 115 174 495 483 Natural gas 44 75 19 9 21 18 Dry 30 19 6 7 7 9 Strats and service 384 437 166 268 289 615 Realized product pricing, before hedging activities & after transportation and blending costs Crude oil and NGLs (C$/bbl)(1) 70.24 71.59 38.53 34.32 45.77 43.84 Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading (C$/bbl) 99.18 98.42 59.58 56.82 62.44 67.00 Natural gas (C$/Mcf) 2.44 3.30 2.78 1.99 2.37 2.14 Results of operations (C$ million, except per share) Adjusted funds flow 7,477 9,587 5,785 4,293 7,347 9,088 per share – Basic 6.87 8.78 5.29 3.90 6.25 7.46 Net earnings (loss) 2,270 3,929 (637) (204) 2,397 2,591 per share – Basic 2.08 3.60 (0.58) (0.19) 2.04 2.13 Capital expenditures (net, including combinations) 7,274 11,744 3,853 3,794 17,129 4,731 Balance Sheet Info (C$ million) Property, plant and equipment (net) 46,487 52,480 51,475 50,910 65,170 64,559 Total assets 51,754 60,200 59,275 58,648 73,867 71,559 Long-term debt 9,661 14,002 16,794 16,805 22,458 20,623 Shareholders’ equity 25,772 28,891 27,381 26,267 31,653 31,974 Ratios Debt to adjusted funds flow, trailing 12 months 1.3x 1.4x 2.6x 3.5x 3.1x 2.3x Debt to book capitalization 27% 33% 38% 39% 41% 39% Return on common equity, trailing 12 months 9% 14% (2%) (1%) 8% 8% Daily production before royalties per 10,000 common shares 6.2 7.2 7.8 7.3 7.9 9.0 Proved plus probable reserves before royalties (BOE) per common share 7.3 8.1 8.3 8.3 8.2 11.1 Share information Common shares outstanding (thousands) 1,087,322 1,091,837 1,094,668 1,110,952 1,222,769 1,201,886 Weighted average common shares – Basic (thousands) 1,088,682 1,091,754 1,093,862 1,100,471 1,175,094 1,218,798 Dividend per share (C$) 0.575 0.90 0.92 0.94 1.10 1.34 TSX trading info High (C$) 36.04 49.57 42.46 45.85 47.00 49.08 Low (C$) 28.44 31.00 25.01 22.90 35.90 30.11 Close (C$) 35.94 35.92 30.22 42.79 44.92 32.94
(1) Realized pricing for exploration and production segments only. Corporate Guidance
December 4, 2019 2020 Budget
Daily Production Volumes (before royalties) Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,360 - 1,420 Crude oil, SCO and NGLs (Mbbl/d) (1) 910 - 970 Total (MBOE/d) 1,137 - 1,207
(1) 2020B annual production guidance reflects production downtime for planned turnarounds and Canadian Natural's 70% ownership in Athabasca Oil Sands Project.
Capital Expenditures (C$ million) Total Capital Expenditures $ 4,050
Corporate Average Annual Cost Data and Other Information Royalty Rate Natural Gas - North America (Mcf) 1.0 - 3.0% Crude oil, SCO and NGLs (bbl) 5.5 - 7.5%
Operating Cost Natural Gas - North America ($/Mcf) $1.20 - 1.30 Crude oil, SCO and NGLs ($/bbl) (1) $16.00 - 19.00
Cash income taxes ($ millions) Current income taxes $1,000 - 1,200 Effective income tax rate on adjusted earnings 23 - 26%
Average interest rate 3.80 - 4.20%
(1) Crude oil and NGLs costs include energy costs and reflect production downtime in 2020B as noted above.
Pricing Assumptions WTI (US$/bbl) US$55.77 SCO discount (US$/bbl) US$1.45 WCS discount (US$/bbl) US$12.71 AECO ($/GJ) $1.83 Exchange Rate (US$/CAD) $1.33
Note: Production, net to Canadian Natural, before royalties. Alberta production is subject to change as mandated by the Alberta Government. The targeted 2020 budget production guidance assumes that the Alberta government curtailment program will continue throughout 2020, and as a result 2020 targeted production is 10,000 bbl/d to 25,000 bbl/d less than it would have been without the curtailment program. Interest rates are subject to change depending upon short term rate changes. Cash income taxes are subject to variation with commodity prices and the level and classification of capital expenditures. This document contains forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws, including, in particular, statements about Canadian Naturals’ plans, strategies and prospects. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements are subject to known or unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Please refer to the Company’s Interim Report or Annual Information Form for a full description of these risks and impacts. Steve W. Laut Executive Vice-Chairman Tim S. McKay President
Darren Fichter Chief Operating Officer, Exploration and Production
Scott G. Stauth Chief Operating Officer, Oil Sands
Mark Stainthorpe Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice-President, Finance
Corey B. Bieber Executive Advisor
Jason Popko Lance Casson Crystal Hoeppner Priya Rai Manager, Analyst, Analyst, Analyst, Investor Relations Investor Relations Investor Relations Investor Relations (403) 386-5408 (403) 386-5480 (403) 386-8612 (403) 386-5299
CANADIAN NATURAL 2100, 855 - 2nd Street S.W., Phone: (403) 514-7777 RESOURCES LIMITED Calgary, Alberta, Email: [email protected] T2P 4J8