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Corporate Presentation February 2020

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Corporate Presentation February 2020 Premium Value. Corporate Leading Free Cash Flow. Independent. Presentation Canadian Natural. February 2020 Delivering Value & Growth SNAPSHOT 2018 2019F 2020B Capital expenditures – net (C$ million)(1) $4,731 $3,800 $4,050 Annualized dividend (C$/share)(2) $1.34 $1.50 Production (annual average, before royalties) Crude Oil (Mbbl/d) 821 839 - 888 910 - 970 Natural gas (MMcf/d) 1,548 1,485 - 1,545 1,360 - 1,420 BOE (MBOE/d) 1,079 1,087 - 1,146 1,137 - 1,207 Company Gross Reserves, before royalties, of crude oil and natural gas (as at December 31, 2018)(3) Proved crude oil and NGLs (MMbbl) 8,784 Proved natural gas (Bcf) 6,652 Proved BOE (MMBOE) 9,893 Proved and probable BOE (MMBOE) 13,382 (1) 2019F excludes costs related to the Devon Canada asset acquisition which closed on June 27, 2019. (2) 2019F and 2020B based on current quarterly dividend of $0.375 per common share. (3) Excludes Devon Canada asset acquisition, which closed on June 27, 2019. Note: See Advisory for pricing assumptions and cautionary statements. TABLE OF CONTENTS • Industry Leading Free Cash Flow Page 4 • Robust, Economic Long Life Low Decline Assets Page 8 • Increasing, Sustainable Returns to Shareholders with Significant Upside Page 11 • Asset Overview Page 13 • Marketing Page 22 • Balance Sheet Strength Page 24 • Long Term Sustainability Page 25 Corporate Presentation February 2020 The Canadian Natural Advantage Delivering in Today’s Environment Industry Leading Free Cash Flow Capital Discipline and Operational Excellence Robust, Economic, Long Life Low Decline Assets Increasing, Sustainable Returns to Shareholders with Significant Upside LEADING FREE CASH FLOW 2 Canadian Natural Large, Long Life Low Decline asset base UNIQUE Effective and efficient operations o Area knowledge o Extensive infrastructure ownership o Operatorship of core areas SUSTAINABLE o Environmentally and socially responsible operations Defined growth / value enhancement plans by product and basin Flexible capital allocation to maximize value ROBUST Strong Balance Sheet supports investment grade credit ratings Opportunistic acquisitions LEADING FREE CASH FLOW 3 1 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Balanced, Diverse Portfolio • Balanced, diverse production mix • International exposure North America North Sea • Vast, balanced resource base to develop • Growing, sustainable adjusted funds flow • ~48% light crude oil and SCO production Offshore Africa 2020 Budget* BOE Production Mix Liquids Production Mix Natural Gas Conventional & ~20% Oil Sands Unconventional Mining & Upgrading ~23% (SCO) ~36% Long Life Low Decline Heavy ~77% Crude Oil ~32% Light Crude *Based upon mid-point of 2020B production guidance. Oil & NGLs ~12% BALANCED PRODUCT MIX PROVIDES FLEXIBILITY 4 2019F Production per Share Growth Top 15 Companies (%) 66% 20% 6 of 14 peers delivered: > 7% production per share growth 15% 10% Group Average 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. Note: Production per share growth based upon Q1/19 to Q4/19F. Q4/19F production based upon Bloomberg consensus data as at November 13, 2019. Deliverable of ~7% based upon approximate group average. TOP TIER PRODUCTION PER SHARE GROWTH 5 2 Corporate Presentation February 2020 2020F Free Cash Flow Yield Top 15 Companies (%) 20% 18% 3 of 14 peers delivered: 16% > 7.5% free cash flow yield; & 14% > 7% production per share growth 12% 10% 8% Group Average 6% 4% 2% 0% Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. CHK shown as zero due to share price change. Source: Goldman Sachs Energy Comp – November 11, 2019. Deliverable of ~7.5% based upon approximate group average. TOP TIER FREE CASH FLOW YIELD 6 Share Repurchases – Trailing 12 Months Top 15 Companies ($ million) $6,000 2 of 14 peers delivered: $5,000 > $1.2 billion share repurchase; > 7.5% free cash flow yield; & $4,000 > 7% production per share growth $3,000 $2,000 Group Average $1,000 $0 Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. Source: Bloomberg data as at November 13, 2019. Deliverable of C$1.2 billion based upon approximate group average. Data based upon reported Q4/18 to Q3/19 repurchases. BALANCED SHARE REPURCHASES 7 3 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Dividend Growth – 10 Year CAGR Top 15 Companies (%) Canadian Natural and only 20% 1 of 14 peers delivered: > 10% 10 year CAGR dividend; 15% > $1.2 billion share repurchase; Group Average > 7.5% free cash flow yield; & 10% > 7% production per share growth 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% (23%) (100%) Peers include: APA, CHK, COP, CVE, CVX, DVN, ECA, EOG, HSE, IMO, NBL, OXY, SU and XOM. Source: 10 year CAGR based upon 2010 to current 2019 quarterly dividend annualized. Bloomberg data as at November 13, 2019. Deliverable of ~10% based upon approximate group average of Companies with positive growth. INDUSTRY LEADING DIVIDEND GROWTH 8 Industry Leading Free Cash Flow 4 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Balance & Optimize the Four Pillars of Capital Allocation Maximizing Shareholder Value Balance Resource Returns to Opportunistic Sheet Value Shareholders Acquisitions Strength Growth FLEXIBLE CAPITAL ALLOCATION MAXIMIZES SHAREHOLDER VALUE 10 2019 Track Record What CNQ Delivered on our Four Pillars • Returns to Shareholders ‒ Distributed ~$2.7 billion to shareholders in 2019 . ~$941 million of common shares repurchased in 2019 . Increased quarterly dividend 12% over 2018 levels ~$1.7 billion annualized • Balance Sheet Strength ‒ ~$2.3 billion debt retired(1) ‒ Debt : EBITDA (2.0x ~1.9x)(2) ‒ Debt : Book Capital (39% ~38%)(2) • Resource Value Growth ‒ Maintained disciplined capital budget $3.8 billion(3) ‒ 2019 entry to 2019 exit BOE production growth ~13% (~15% per share)(4) • Opportunistic Acquisitions ‒ Execution on significant value adding acquisition (1) Includes public debt retirement of C$1 billion and ~C$1.3 billion retirement of non-revolving term loan. (2) December 31, 2018 to forecasted year ending 2019 debt metrics, including major acquisition. (3) Excludes acquisition costs. (4) 2019 entry to exit production growth calculated as average targeted Q4/19 production versus average Q1/19 actual production. Q4/19 targeted production reflects Government of Alberta curtailment at November announced levels. UNEQUALLED ABILITY TO DELIVER ON OUR FOUR PILLARS 11 5 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Canadian Natural 2020 Execution Priorities • Disciplined capital budget focused on free cash flow generation • Margin Growth and Asset Development ‒ Thermal in situ and Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading capture synergies ‒ Progress projects that add production/value in 2020 and beyond . Aligned with increased market access • Adhere to free cash flow allocation policy ‒ Increasing returns to shareholders ‒ Continue to strengthen the Balance Sheet • Enhance capital flexibility ‒ ~$1,565 million Conventional & Unconventional assets ‒ ~$2,485 million Long Life Low Decline assets SAFE, SUSTAINABLE, EFFECTIVE & EFFICIENT OPERATIONS 12 Canadian Natural 2020 Budget 2020 Capital Budget ($ million) 2019F 2020B Total (1) $3,800 $4,050 Targeted Production 2019F 2020B % Change(2) Natural Gas (MMcf/d) 1,485 - 1,545 1,360 - 1,420 (8%) Total Liquids (Mbbl/d)(3) 839 - 888 910 - 970 9% Total MBOE/d 1,087 - 1,146 1,137 - 1,207 5% (1) 2019F excludes asset acquisition costs. (2) Percent change of 2020B midpoint over 2019F midpoint. (3) Reflects planned downtime for turnaround activities and Canadian Natural’s 70% ownership in the AOSP. Note: Rounded to the nearest 1,000 bbl/d. Numbers may not add due to rounding. STRONG PRODUCTION PER SHARE GROWTH OF ~9% 13 6 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Canadian Natural Leading Free Cash Flow ($ billion) $9.0 $8.0 $7.0 $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 Dividend Dividend(1) Dividend(1) $0.0 2018 2019F(2) 2020B Capital ($ billion) $4.7 $3.8 $4.05 Free Cash Flow +$5.00 WTI Incremental Free Cash Flow (1) Based upon current dividend. (2) Excludes acquisition costs. Note: Free cash flow represents adjusted funds flow less capital. See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. SUSTAINABLE FREE CASH FLOW 14 2020B Free Cash Flow Generation The Canadian Natural Opportunity ($ billion) $8.0 Adjusted Funds Flow ~$10.5 billion $7.0 Less: Budgeted Capital ~$4.05 billion ~$1.7 billion Less: Current Dividends* $6.0 Free Cash Flow $5.0 ~$4.8 billion $4.0 $3.0 Balance Sheet Share Strength Repurchases $2.0 ~$2.4 billion ~$2.4 billion $1.0 WTI +$2.50 WTI +$5.00 WTI +$7.50 Free Cash Flow *Based upon 2019 dividends paid. Dividends have historically been reviewed in the first quarter of the year. Incremental Free Cash Flow Note: See Advisory for cautionary statements, definitions and pricing assumptions. SIGNIFICANT TORQUE TO COMMODITY PRICE 15 7 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Robust, Economic, Long Life Low Decline Assets Balanced Model – Production per Share Basis Price Impact on Production & Value • Assets deliver free cash flow in low • Production per share price environment grows at a higher rate • Free cash flow allocation policy results in share repurchases • Production per share continues to grow • Production per share grows at a higher rate Conventional & Unconventional Production Commodity Price Long Life Low Decline Production Production per Share Rate Share per Production Commodity Price Commodity Time DELIVERS FREE CASH FLOW THROUGH THE CYCLE 17 8 Corporate Presentation February 2020 Canadian Natural’s Advantage Low Corporate Decline Rate BOE Production Mix
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