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NSE Market Pulse (.Pdf) July 2020 Volume 2, Issue 7 Market Pulse A monthly review of Indian economy and markets Market Pulse July 2020 | Vol. 2, Issue 7 Indian view Economy and A Monthly Re A Monthly Markets Volume 2, Issue 7 This monthly publication is a review of major developments in the economy and financial markets during the month. Online: www.nseindia.com NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA LIMITED Market Pulse July 2020 | Vol. 2, Issue 7 Market Pulse Published by Economic Policy and Research, National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. Copyright © 2020 by National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) Exchange Plaza, Bandra Kurla Complex Bandra (East), Mumbai 400 051 INDIA Any/all Intellectual Property rights in this report including without limitation any/all contents/information/data forming a part of this report shall at all times vest with NSE. No part of this report may be sold/distributed/licensed/produced/transmitted in any form or manner by any means (including without limitation - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) to any person/entity whatsoever without the prior written permission of NSE. Extracts from this report may be used or cited provided that NSE is duly notified and acknowledged as the source of such extract. This report is intended solely for information purposes. This report is under no circumstances intended to be used or considered as financial or investment advice, a recommendation or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities or other form of financial asset. The Report has been prepared on best effort basis, relying upon information obtained from various sources. NSE does not guarantee the completeness, accuracy and/or timeliness of this report neither does NSE guarantee the accuracy or projections of future conditions from the use of this report or any information therein. In no event, NSE, or any of its officers, directors, employees, affiliates or other agents are responsible for any loss or damage arising out of this report. All investments are subject to risks, which should be considered prior to making any investments. Market Pulse July 2020 | Vol. 2, Issue 7 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 Story of the month ........................................................................................................................................................... 3 Q4FY20 Earnings Review: Lock-down hits corporate earnings; estimates cut sharply .......................... 3 Chart of the month ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 The roller-coaster market ride of 2020 so far: Sector concentration and rotation ................................ 23 Macro economy .............................................................................................................................................................. 29 s target range .......................................................... 29 Industrial production contracts for the third month in a row .................................................................. 34 Trade balance turns surplus in June ........................................................................................................... 39 Current account balance turns surplus in Q4FY20; FY20 CAD at -0.9% ................................................. 42 Fiscal pressures mounting; deficit monetisation by RBI not ruled out ................................................... 47 Rainfall above normal thus far; sowing activity strong ............................................................................. 52 Insights ............................................................................................................................................................................ 55 Invited article: Asset Management is ripe for leadership evolution ........................................................ 55 RBI Financial Stability Report: NPA woes to worsen in FY21 .................................................................. 63 Prompt policy actions ease financial conditions after a sharp COVID19-led deterioration ................. 67 Market Performance ..................................................................................................................................................... 70 Market Round-up .......................................................................................................................................... 70 Market performance across asset classes .................................................................................................. 74 Institutional flows across market segments in India ................................................................................ 81 Fund mobilisation through NSE ................................................................................................................................. 83 Market Statistics: Primary market .............................................................................................................. 83 New listings in the month ............................................................................................................................. 84 ............................................................................................. 85 Long term trends and impact of macro indicators ..................................................................................... 85 Institutional investments through NSE platform ...................................................................................... 89 Total turnover in CM and derivatives market ............................................................................................. 91 Average daily turnover in CM and derivatives market .............................................................................. 91 Turnover of top traded symbols over the month........................................................................................ 95 Client category-wise participation in total turnover ................................................................................. 96 Asset category-wise open interest (average daily volume) ................................................................... 102 Market Pulse July 2020 | Vol. 2, Issue 7 Internet-based trading .............................................................................................................................. 103 Spatial distribution of trading activities ................................................................................................................ 105 Region-wise distribution of new investors registered ........................................................................... 105 Region-wise distribution of individual investor turnover in the cash market ..................................... 107 Investment through mutual funds in India ........................................................................................................... 109 Policy developments .................................................................................................................................................. 111 Comparison of trading activities across major exchanges globally ................................................................ 115 Economic calendar for major countries (August 2020) ...................................................................................... 119 Annual Macro Snapshot ............................................................................................................................................. 120 Market Pulse July 2020 | Vol. 2, Issue 7 Executive Summary Risk-on rally continues for yet another month As the number of COVID-19 cases in India continues to rise, states have resorted to localised lockdowns, even as restrictions continue to ease in areas with declining caseloads. The rapid spread this time in the hinterland is particularly concerning, posing downside risks to the agriculture sector which otherwise has thus far emerged as the only silver lining. An unprecedented contraction in the first quarter of FY21 followed by expectations of a slow and gradual recovery ahead is already reflected in several high frequency indicators such as industrial production, merchandise trade, PMI, amongst others. Equity markets worldwide, however, seem to be unwary of the ongoing macroeconomic downturn as they continue to derive comfort from a sharp surge in global liquidity something that is here to stay at least for the foreseeable future. Positive cues around development of a COVID-19 vaccine has also supported market sentiments. A portion of this ample global liquidity is finding its way into emerging market (EM) equities, resulting in India and the broader EM pack outperforming the developed markets in June as well as July thus far. The benchmark Nifty 50/Nifty 500 Index rose by 7.5%/8.3% in the month of June and further by 8.1% and 6.5% in July (as of July 27th). Fixed income markets remained strong for yet another month amid continued liquidity injection by global central banks. While long-end remained largely steady, short-end of the curve came off further, resulting in further steepening of the yield curve. India was no different, with the decline in Government as well as corporate yields
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