Pro Football Power Ratings 2 Pro Football Outplay
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Vol. 5, THE PLATINUM SHEET Issue 2 Sept. 8 – 14, 2011 Pro Football Power Ratings 2 Pro Football Outplay Factor Ratings 2 Pro Football Best Bets / StatFox Sta Selections 3 Pro Football Game-by-Game Breakdowns 4 Analysis for every Pro Football Betting Insight: Week 1 Historical Trends 10 Week 1 NFL game! College Football Power Ratings 12 P. 4 College Football Best Bets / StatFox Sta Selections 13 Historical trends for College Football Outplay Factor Ratings 14 NFL season College Football Game-by-Game Breakdowns 16 openers! P. 10 Sportsbook.com Betting Trends 24 StatFox MANAGING EDITOR Staff goes Scott Gramling EXECUTIVE EDITOR Welcome to Week 2 of The Platinum Sheet. I hope your 10-4 on Je Makinen fi rst Saturday of college football was as successful and profi table as it was for the CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Sept. 3 CFB Dave Bartman StatFox sta , which combined to go 10-4 for a 71 percent success rate on best Gary Bennett bets. For most of us, it was just a matter of following the StatFox Super Situations Brian Graham and Situational Team Power Trends. Best Bets! SYSTEMS ANALYST John Mitchell P. 13 CREATIVE DIRECTOR StatFox Super Situations and Situational Team Power Trends are part of the Ian Knowles o ering to those who subscribe at FoxSheets.com. Every week we scour the EDITORIAL DIRECTION database and o er to you matchups that are rated highest by our proprietary 10Ten Media algorithms. The four-star Super Situation that appeared in last week’s Platinum DAILY RACING FORM LLC Sheet applied to the South Florida/Notre Dame game: Play against any team in Jim Kostas, President Duke Dosik, VP Custom the fi rst week of the season that a) had a winning percentage between 60% and Publishing 80%, b) had ended the previous season with three straight covers, and c) was On Sale Todd Unger, President of facing an opponent that’d had a winning record. SIG Digital Wednesday Jacob Luft, Program Mgr. U.S. $7.99 The Platinum Sheet is Teams fi tting that criteria had been 2-23 ATS since 1992. Make it 2-24 as Notre published by Daily Racing Dame lost outright at home despite being a double-digit favorite over South CANADA Form LLC, 708 Third Florida. Our three-star Super Situations last week also covered with ease, as $8.99 Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10017. All rights Utah State nearly upset Auburn as a three-touchdown underdog, and top-ranked reserved. Printed in USA. Oklahoma beat Tulsa by 33. Selected Super Situations and Power Trends are in Daily Racing Form LLC these pages every week, but only subscribers at FoxSheets.com get all of them. reserves the right to deny any paid advertisements and is not responsible for Now go get ’em! any contracts entered in with such advertisers. SUBSCRIPTIONS: www.StatFox.com/store 1-877-514-4220 Scott Gramling Managing Editor www.StatFox.com 1 THE PLATINUM SHEET NFL POWER RATINGS The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, KEY: OL Opening Line including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. Additionally, our exclusive PR StatFox Power Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) home-field advantage points are built into each home team’s rating and corresponding PRL Calculated Power Rating Line Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line line. The ratings are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a and the actual opening line great long-term handicapping tool. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers 1. New England (-5.5) over MIAMI 14.5 Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L TOP STATFOX POWER 2. GREEN BAY (-4.5) over New Orleans 11.5 471 CAROLINA PANTHERS 8 RATING EDGES: 3. Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS 10.0 472 ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 11 -3 0.0 Thurs - 9/8, 8:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 451 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 24 461 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 26 -2 5.0 473 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 10 452 GREEN BAY PACKERS -4.5 40 -16 11.5 462 HOUSTON TEXANS -3 24 474 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -6 20 -10 4.0 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 453 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 30 463 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 26 -14 10.0 475 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 18 454 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2.5 33 -3 0.5 464 ST. LOUIS RAMS 12 476 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -9.5 31 -13 3.5 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 8:25 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 455 DETROIT LIONS 17 465 CINCINNATI BENGALS 15 1.0 477 DALLAS COWBOYS 21 456 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 25 -8 5.0 466 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 17 -2 478 NEW YORK JETS -4 31 -10 6.0 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 457 ATLANTA FALCONS 24 467 TENNESSEE TITANS 19 2.5 479 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 38 -20 14.5 458 CHICAGO BEARS pk 27 -3 3.0 468 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5 19 0 480 MIAMI DOLPHINS 18 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 10:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 459 BUFFALO BILLS 12 3.5 469 NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 26 -10 6.5 481 OAKLAND RAIDERS 22 -8 8 460 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5 15 -3 470 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 16 482 DENVER BRONCOS pk 14 NFL OUTPLAY FACTOR RATINGS StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings have proven over the years to be an excel- KEY: OL Opening Line lent indicator of team strength: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating (adjusted for home-field advantage) outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisti- OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Line EdgeThe difference between the Power Rating Line cated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared and the actual opening line to how their previous opponents have fared. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers 1. GREEN BAY (-4.5) over New Orleans 12.2 Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY 2. New England (-5.5) over MIAMI 11.7 471 CAROLINA PANTHERS 7 FACTOR EDGES: 3. Oakland (pk) over DENVER 10.8 472 ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 12 -6 2.7 Thurs - 9/8, 8:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 451 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 26 461 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 24 -3 6.0 473 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9 452 GREEN BAY PACKERS -4.5 42 -17 12.2 462 HOUSTON TEXANS -3 21 474 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -6 23 -13 7.3 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 453 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 31 2.3 463 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 27 -12 7.6 475 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 17 454 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2.5 31 0 464 ST. LOUIS RAMS 15 476 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -9.5 31 -14 4.9 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 8:25 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 455 DETROIT LIONS 21 465 CINCINNATI BENGALS 13 477 DALLAS COWBOYS 20 456 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 25 -4 1.5 466 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 20 -6 3.3 478 NEW YORK JETS -4 28 -8 4.3 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 457 ATLANTA FALCONS 25 467 TENNESSEE TITANS 20 1.6 479 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 38 -17 11.7 458 CHICAGO BEARS pk 28 -2 2.4 468 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5 21 -1 480 MIAMI DOLPHINS 21 Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 10:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 459 BUFFALO BILLS 15 2.4 469 NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 28 -10 6.7 481 OAKLAND RAIDERS 25 -11 10.8 460 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5 19 -4 470 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 18 482 DENVER BRONCOS pk 14 2 www.StatFox.com T H E P LATI N U M S H E ET PRESENts THE WEEK’S BEst BEts WEEK 1 NFL MATCHUPS: SUS N N SE Y SEPTEMBER 8-12 TT A RECASTER I O AR on tatFox tatFox tatFox tatFox tatFox tatFox S DAVE S G S fo S C [ (BB) = BEST BET ] S SC S BR • (451) NEW ORLEANS at (452) GREEN BAY -4½ GREEN BAY NEW ORLEANS NEW ORLEANS GREEN BAY (BB) GREEN BAY GREEN BAY • (453) PITTSBURGH at (454) BALTIMORE -3 BALTIMORE PITTSBURGH BALTIMORE PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH • (455) DETROIT at (456) TAMPA BAY -3 DETROIT DETROIT DETROIT TAMPA BAY (BB) DETROIT DETROIT • (457) ATLANTA at (458) CHICAGO +2½ CHICAGO (BB) CHICAGO (BB) CHICAGO ATLANTA CHICAGO CHICAGO • (459) BUFFALO at (460) KANSAS CITY -6½ KANSAS CITY BUFFALO (BB) BUFFALO (BB) KANSAS CITY BUFFALO BUFFALO • (461) INDIANAPOLIS at (462) HOUSTON -9 HOUSTON (BB) HOUSTON HOUSTON (BB) INDIANAPOLIS INDIANAPOLIS HOUSTON • (463) PHILADELPHIA at (464) ST.