Vol. 5, THE PLATINUM SHEET Issue 2 Sept. 8 – 14, 2011 Pro Football Power Ratings 2 Pro Football Outplay Factor Ratings 2 Pro Football Best Bets / StatFox Sta Selections 3 Pro Football Game-by-Game Breakdowns 4 Analysis for every Pro Football Betting Insight: Week 1 Historical Trends 10 Week 1 NFL game! College Football Power Ratings 12 P. 4 College Football Best Bets / StatFox Sta Selections 13 Historical trends for College Football Outplay Factor Ratings 14 NFL season College Football Game-by-Game Breakdowns 16 openers! P. 10 Sportsbook.com Betting Trends 24 StatFox
MANAGING EDITOR Staff goes Scott Gramling EXECUTIVE EDITOR Welcome to Week 2 of The Platinum Sheet. I hope your 10-4 on Je Makinen fi rst Saturday of college football was as successful and profi table as it was for the CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Sept. 3 CFB Dave Bartman StatFox sta , which combined to go 10-4 for a 71 percent success rate on best Gary Bennett bets. For most of us, it was just a matter of following the StatFox Super Situations Brian Graham and Situational Team Power Trends. Best Bets! SYSTEMS ANALYST John Mitchell P. 13 CREATIVE DIRECTOR StatFox Super Situations and Situational Team Power Trends are part of the Ian Knowles o ering to those who subscribe at FoxSheets.com. Every week we scour the EDITORIAL DIRECTION database and o er to you matchups that are rated highest by our proprietary 10Ten Media algorithms. The four-star Super Situation that appeared in last week’s Platinum DAILY RACING FORM LLC Sheet applied to the South Florida/Notre Dame game: Play against any team in Jim Kostas, President Duke Dosik, VP Custom the fi rst week of the season that a) had a winning percentage between 60% and Publishing 80%, b) had ended the previous season with three straight covers, and c) was On Sale Todd Unger, President of facing an opponent that’d had a winning record. SIG Digital Wednesday Jacob Luft, Program Mgr. U.S. $7.99 The Platinum Sheet is Teams fi tting that criteria had been 2-23 ATS since 1992. Make it 2-24 as Notre published by Daily Racing Dame lost outright at home despite being a double-digit favorite over South CANADA Form LLC, 708 Third Florida. Our three-star Super Situations last week also covered with ease, as $8.99 Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY 10017. All rights Utah State nearly upset Auburn as a three-touchdown underdog, and top-ranked reserved. Printed in USA. Oklahoma beat Tulsa by 33. Selected Super Situations and Power Trends are in Daily Racing Form LLC these pages every week, but only subscribers at FoxSheets.com get all of them. reserves the right to deny any paid advertisements and is not responsible for Now go get ’em! any contracts entered in with such advertisers.
SUBSCRIPTIONS: www.StatFox.com/store 1-877-514-4220 Scott Gramling Managing Editor
www.StatFox.com 1 The Platinum Sheet NFL power ratings
The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs several key factors, Key: OL Opening Line including point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. Additionally, our exclusive PR StatFox Power Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) home-field advantage points are built into each home team’s rating and corresponding PRL Calculated Power Rating Line Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line line. The ratings are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, and thus have proven to be a and the actual opening line great long-term handicapping tool. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers
1. New England (-5.5) over MIAMI 14.5 Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L TOP STATFOX POWER 2. GREEN BAY (-4.5) over New Orleans 11.5 471 CAROLINA PANTHERS 8 RATING EDGES: 3. Philadelphia (-4) over ST. LOUIS 10.0 472 ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 11 -3 0.0
Thurs - 9/8, 8:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 451 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 24 461 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 26 -2 5.0 473 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 10 452 GREEN BAY PACKERS -4.5 40 -16 11.5 462 HOUSTON TEXANS -3 24 474 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -6 20 -10 4.0
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 453 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 30 463 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 26 -14 10.0 475 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 18 454 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2.5 33 -3 0.5 464 ST. LOUIS RAMS 12 476 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -9.5 31 -13 3.5
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 8:25 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 455 DETROIT LIONS 17 465 CINCINNATI BENGALS 15 1.0 477 DALLAS COWBOYS 21 456 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 25 -8 5.0 466 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 17 -2 478 NEW YORK JETS -4 31 -10 6.0
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 457 ATLANTA FALCONS 24 467 TENNESSEE TITANS 19 2.5 479 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 38 -20 14.5 458 CHICAGO BEARS pk 27 -3 3.0 468 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5 19 0 480 MIAMI DOLPHINS 18
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 10:15 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 459 BUFFALO BILLS 12 3.5 469 NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 26 -10 6.5 481 OAKLAND RAIDERS 22 -8 8 460 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5 15 -3 470 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 16 482 DENVER BRONCOS pk 14
NFL Outplay Factor Ratings
StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings have proven over the years to be an excel- Key: OL Opening Line lent indicator of team strength: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating (adjusted for home-field advantage) outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined by a sophisti- OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Line EdgeThe difference between the Power Rating Line cated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and points against as compared and the actual opening line to how their previous opponents have fared. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers
1. GREEN BAY (-4.5) over New Orleans 12.2 Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY 2. New England (-5.5) over MIAMI 11.7 471 CAROLINA PANTHERS 7 FACTOR EDGES: 3. Oakland (pk) over DENVER 10.8 472 ARIZONA CARDINALS -3 12 -6 2.7
Thurs - 9/8, 8:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 451 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 26 461 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 24 -3 6.0 473 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 9 452 GREEN BAY PACKERS -4.5 42 -17 12.2 462 HOUSTON TEXANS -3 21 474 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -6 23 -13 7.3
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 453 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 31 2.3 463 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 27 -12 7.6 475 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 17 454 BALTIMORE RAVENS -2.5 31 0 464 ST. LOUIS RAMS 15 476 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -9.5 31 -14 4.9
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 8:25 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 455 DETROIT LIONS 21 465 CINCINNATI BENGALS 13 477 DALLAS COWBOYS 20 456 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 25 -4 1.5 466 CLEVELAND BROWNS -3 20 -6 3.3 478 NEW YORK JETS -4 28 -8 4.3
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 457 ATLANTA FALCONS 25 467 TENNESSEE TITANS 20 1.6 479 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 38 -17 11.7 458 CHICAGO BEARS pk 28 -2 2.4 468 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -2.5 21 -1 480 MIAMI DOLPHINS 21
Sun - 9/11, 1:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sun - 9/11, 4:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Mon - 9/12, 10:15 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 459 BUFFALO BILLS 15 2.4 469 NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 28 -10 6.7 481 OAKLAND RAIDERS 25 -11 10.8 460 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5 19 -4 470 WASHINGTON REDSKINS 18 482 DENVER BRONCOS pk 14
2 www.StatFox.com T h e P lati n u m S h e et
presents the week’s Best Bets
Week 1 NFL Matchups: sus n N se Y September 8-12 TT A recaster I O AR on tatFox tatFox tatFox tatFox tatFox tatFox S dave S G S fo S c [ (BB) = Best Bet ] S SC S BR • (451) NEW ORLEANS at (452) GREEN BAY -4½ GREEN BAY NEW ORLEANS NEW ORLEANS GREEN BAY (BB) GREEN BAY GREEN BAY • (453) PITTSBURGH at (454) BALTIMORE -3 BALTIMORE PITTSBURGH BALTIMORE PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH PITTSBURGH • (455) DETROIT at (456) TAMPA BAY -3 DETROIT DETROIT DETROIT TAMPA BAY (BB) DETROIT DETROIT • (457) ATLANTA at (458) CHICAGO +2½ CHICAGO (BB) CHICAGO (BB) CHICAGO ATLANTA CHICAGO CHICAGO • (459) BUFFALO at (460) KANSAS CITY -6½ KANSAS CITY BUFFALO (BB) BUFFALO (BB) KANSAS CITY BUFFALO BUFFALO • (461) INDIANAPOLIS at (462) HOUSTON -9 HOUSTON (BB) HOUSTON HOUSTON (BB) INDIANAPOLIS INDIANAPOLIS HOUSTON • (463) PHILADELPHIA at (464) ST. LOUIS +5 PHILADELPHIA PHILADELPHIA (BB) ST. LOUIS PHILADELPHIA (BB) ST. LOUIS PHILADELPHIA • (465) CINCINNATI at (466) CLEVELAND -5 CLEVELAND (BB) CLEVELAND (BB) CLEVELAND CLEVELAND CINCINNATI CLEVELAND • (467) TENNESSEE at (468) JACKSONVILLE -3 JACKSONVILLE (BB) JACKSONVILLE TENNESSEE (BB) TENNESSEE TENNESSEE TENNESSEE • (469) NY GIANTS at (470) WASHINGTON +3½ NY GIANTS NY GIANTS (BB) WASHINGTON NY GIANTS (BB) NY GIANTS NY GIANTS • (471) CAROLINA at (472) ARIZONA -5½ ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA CAROLINA CAROLINA ARIZONA • (473) SEATTLE at (474) SAN FRANCISCO -6 SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE SEATTLE (BB) SEATTLE (BB) SEATTLE SEATTLE • (475) MINNESOTA at (476) SAN DIEGO -8½ SAN DIEGO SAN DIEGO MINNESOTA (BB) MINNESOTA SAN DIEGO SAN DIEGO • (477) DALLAS at (478) NY JETS -4 NY JETS (BB) NY JETS DALLAS DALLAS NY JETS NY JETS • (479) NEW ENGLAND at (480) MIAMI +5½ NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND • (481) OAKLAND at (482) DENVER pk DENVER DENVER OAKLAND OAKLAND OAKLAND OAKLAND
9/11/2011 9/11/2011 9/11/2011 9/11/2011 9/11/2011 ATLANTA at BUFFALO at PHILADELPHIA at CINCINNATI at N.Y. GIANTS at CHICAGO KANSAS CITY ST. LOUIS CLEVELAND WASHINGTON Despite their busy offsea- K.C. was exposed in their This is more of a match-up The Browns have a QB The Giants have abso- son, be wary of the Falcons. blowout home loss to issue for the Rams. They’re on the rise in Colt McCoy, lutely had their way with They had plenty of luck in Baltimore in the playoffs, breaking in a new offense who’s a great fit in their Washington over the past 2010. They benefitted from but their flaws showed with second-year franchise new West Coast offense, five seasons: 9-1 SU and the league’s lowest opp. when they hosted Buffalo QB Sam Bradford, and not to mention a power 8-2 ATS, including 5-0 SU FG pct. (65.2%). And while in Week 8 last year. They they’re doing it against running game to overpower and 4-1 ATS at Washington they were 6-2 SU & ATS barely escaped with a the best secondary in the Bengals’ D. For their (where they’ve outscored on the road, they benefit- 13-10 overtime win. Buffalo football. Make no mistake, part, Cincy is breaking in them by 13.0 PPG). And ted from an NFL-high 522 added No. 3 pick Marcell CB Nnamdi Asomugha is a new offense in a short QB Eli Manning plays his opp. penalty yards. They Dareus and ILB Nick Barnett Darrelle Revis without the offseason with a new quar- best football when the were just 1-2 ATS with a to improve a porous run Q-rating, Asante Samuel terback (possibly noodle- weather is warm (89.6 -17.0 point diff. against 2010 defense, which should would be the No. 1 corner armed rookie Andy Dalton), career passer rating in playoff teams. The Bears help them contain K.C.’s on at least 20 other teams, and on the road. That’s a September). The Giants (who were 4-2 ATS against best weapon—RB Jamaal and Dominique Rodgers- recipe for disaster. Plus, the are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS over playoff teams during the Charles, who had 177 rush- Cromartie isn’t far behind. Browns have a three-star the past three Septembers. 2010 regular season) aren’t ing yards in last year’s win St. Louis will have trouble Super Situation working Big Blue has some issues explosive offensively, but over Buffalo—and keep this moving the ball, and their in their favor: Since 1983, in the secondary, but the they have the defense to close. And K.C. is just 13-28 secondary will be over- Favorites are 33-10 ATS Redskins don’t have the contain Atlanta on a slow ATS against the AFC East matched by Philly skill posi- (+22 units) in Week 1 after passing game personnel to Soldier Field track. Simply since 1992, and 0-3 ATS tion players that will only closing out the previous take advantage as long as put: they should not be get- against Buffalo over the get faster on the Edward season with three or more John Beck or Rex Grossman ting points in this game. past three years. Jones Dome turf. ATS losses. are under center.
p la y O N : Chicago +2.5 p la y O N : BUFFALO +6.5 p la y O N : Philadelphia -5 p la y O N : Cleveland -5 p la y O N : N.Y. Giants -3.5
NFL STAFF PICKs 2010 FINAL STANDINGS *
All Games W L T Pct NFL Playoffs NFL Best Bets W L T Pct NFL Playoffs
StatFox Gary 136 122 9 52.7% 8-3 StatFox Gary 47 38 4 55.3% 3-1
StatFox Consensus 131 127 9 50.8% 9-2 StatFox Brian 44 42 3 51.2% 1-3
StatFox Dave 129 129 9 50.0% 8-3 StatFox Dave 39 46 4 45.9% 3-1
StatFox Forecaster 128 130 9 49.6% 8-3 StatFox Scott 36 50 3 41.9% 3-1
StatFox Scott 127 131 9 49.2% 7-4
StatFox Brian 115 143 9 44.6% 3-8 * [Standings reflect games played through Super Bowl XLV.]
www.StatFox.com 3 The Platinum Sheet
NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 1
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4½)
• (451) NEW ORLEANS (2010 SU: 11-6, 2010 ATS: 7-10) at (452) GREEN BAY (2010 SU: 14-6, 2010 ATS: 13-7)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod NEW ORLEANS +4.2 18 25 23 24-94 (4.0) 42-29-285 (6.7) 66-379 (5.7) 1-1 20 17 26-114 (4.4) 31-19-198 (6.4) 57-312 (5.5) 1-1 -6 GREEN BAY +9.6 22 25 20 26-100 (3.8) 34-22-258 (7.7) 60-358 (6.0) 1-1 16 17 24-109 (4.6) 34-19-200 (6.0) 58-309 (5.3) 1-2 +16
Game Breakdown: The Packers begin their title defense when Betting System: they host Super Bowl XLIV champion New Orleans to kick off the Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - in a game involving two teams that had win- 2011 NFL season. This game matches up two of the league’s most ning records last season. (56-24 Under) Play = Under the total explosive offenses led by elite quarterbacks. While Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely be at the tops of their games, the Pack- Series history – Last 5 seasons: ers seem better suited to contain the Saints. New Orleans did little GREEN BAY is 0-2 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. NEW ORLEANS (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.) to improve its struggling pass rush, and Rodgers should be able to take advantage of the middling talent in New Orleans’ second- StatFox Six Pack: ary. Meanwhile Brees will have his hands full against the Packers’ Mike McCarthy is 39-25 ATS against conference opponents as coach of GREEN BAY. elite pass rush and one of the NFL’s top secondaries. GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS in all lined games over the L3 seasons. Mike McCarthy is 8-1 OVER against NFC South division opponents as coach of GREEN BAY. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 42.5-49 points over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox NEW ORLEANS 19 NEW ORLEANS is 29-15 OVER against NFC North division opponents since 1992. F ore c aster : GREEN BAY 26 Sean Payton is 39-25 OVER against conference opponents as coach of NEW ORLEANS.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3)
• (453) PITTSBURGH (2010 SU: 14-5, 2010 ATS: 12-7) at (454) BALTIMORE (2010 SU: 13-5, 2010 ATS: 9-8-1)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod PITTSBURGH +7.8 23 24 19 30-120 (4.0) 30-19-220 (7.3) 60-340 (5.7) 1-1 16 17 20-61 (3.0) 37-22-212 (5.8) 57-273 (4.8) 1-1 +13 BALTIMORE +5.7 21 23 19 30-112 (3.7) 31-19-204 (6.6) 61-316 (5.2) 1-1 17 17 24-93 (3.9) 36-21-213 (5.9) 60-306 (5.1) 1-1 +9
Game Breakdown: The NFL’s nastiest rivalry resumes early this Betting System: year, as Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh in a Week 1 showdown. Eight Any team against the total - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 75%) from of the past nine meetings between the teams have been decided last season, versus division opponents. (22-4 Over) Play = Over the total by seven points or less, and five were decided by a field goal. Last season, the Steelers took two of three from Baltimore, including Series history – Last 5 seasons: both games that QB Ben Roethlisberger played in. Roethlisberger BALTIMORE is 5-6 ATS (5-7 SU) vs. PITTSBURGH (2-3 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.) has now won five in a row SU and four of five ATS against the Ra- vens. Baltimore’s running game should improve with Ray Rice and StatFox Six Pack: newly acquired Ricky Williams running behind FB Vonta Leach, John Harbaugh is 20-11 ATS as a favorite as coach of BALTIMORE. who paved the way for Arian Foster’s monster season in Houston. BALTIMORE is 51-33 ATS as a home favorite since 1992. BALTIMORE is 14-4 against the 1H line in all lined games over the L2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 47-29 ATS as a road underdog since 1992. Stat F ox PITTSBURGH 20 PITTSBURGH is 40-24 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. F ore c aster : BALTIMORE 19 Mike Tomlin is 32-20 OVER against conference opponents as coach of PITTSBURGH.
DETROIT LIONS vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3)
• (455) DETROIT (2010 SU: 6-10, 2010 ATS: 12-3-1) at (456) TAMPA BAY (2010 SU: 10-6, 2010 ATS: 9-5-2)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod DETROIT -0.4 23 23 19 25-101 (4.0) 40-24-238 (6.0) 65-339 (5.2) 1-1 23 20 28-125 (4.5) 32-21-218 (6.7) 60-343 (5.7) 1-1 +4 TAMPA BAY +1.4 18 21 18 27-125 (4.6) 31-19-210 (6.8) 58-335 (5.8) 1-0 20 19 28-132 (4.7) 33-19-201 (6.2) 61-333 (5.5) 1-1 +9
Game Breakdown: The Lions look to keep the momentum Betting System: from 2010’s strong finish going when they visit Tampa. Detroit’s Any team against the total - in conference games, first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season late-season surge (4-0 SU, 5-0 ATS to finish the year) included a with 3 or more straight spread covers. (78-39 Under) Play = Under the total 23-20 overtime, upset win in Tampa that ended the Bucs’ playoff hopes. Tampa had no answer for WR Calvin Johnson (10 catches, Series history – Last 5 seasons: 152 yards) in that game, despite the fact that the Lions were start- TAMPA BAY is 1-2 ATS (1-2 SU) vs. DETROIT (0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU at home.) ing third-string QB Drew Stanton. The Bucs’ surprise 2010 season was due more to strong play on the road. They went just 4-4 SU StatFox Six Pack: and 2-5-1 ATS at home last season, but could take a natural step TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS in home lined games over the L3 seasons. forward considering how many rookies they started last year. TAMPA BAY is 141-97 UNDER against conference opponents since 1992. TAMPA BAY is 62-41 UNDER as a home favorite since 1992. DETROIT is 12-3 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox DETROIT 21 DETROIT is 10-2 ATS against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : TAMPA BAY 24 DETROIT is 33-51 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
4 www.StatFox.com ThE PLATiNuM ShEET
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atLanta FaLconS (-2½) vs chicago BearS
• (457) ATLANTA (2010 SU: 13-4, 2010 ATS: 11-6) at (458) CHICAGO (2010 SU: 12-6, 2010 ATS: 10-7-1)
team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod ATLANTA +5.8 20 26 22 30-114 (3.8) 36-22-219 (6.1) 66-333 (5.0) 1-1 20 18 23-105 (4.5) 35-23-234 (6.7) 58-339 (5.8) 1-1 +11 CHICAGO +2.9 22 21 17 27-104 (3.9) 30-17-194 (6.6) 57-298 (5.2) 1-1 18 18 24-89 (3.7) 37-23-226 (6.2) 61-315 (5.2) 1-1 +2 game Breakdown: The Falcons were road warriors a year ago Betting SyStem: (6-2 SU and ATS away from home), but they also received some Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points - in a game involving two teams that had win- luck. They had the league’s lowest opponent fi eld goal percentage ning records last season, in conference games. (114-66 Under) Play = Under the total during the regular season (65.2%) and were one of four teams to have opponents rack up more than 1,000 penalty yards against SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: them (including a league-high 522 in road games). They were 1-2 CHICAGO is 0-2 ATS (0-2 SU) vs. ATLANTA (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) SU and ATS with a -17 point diff erential in three road games vs. 2010 playoff teams last year. Chicago was 4-2 ATS against 2010 StatFox Six Pack: playoff teams last regular season, and the slow track at Soldier CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER as an underdog over the L3 seasons. Field should help neutralize the speed in Atlanta’s receiving corps. CHICAGO is 25-9 UNDER as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992. CHICAGO is 118-68 under the 1H total as an underdog since 1992. ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS in all lined games over the L3 seasons. STAT F Ox ATLANTA 19 ATLANTA is 32-18 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992. F O R E c A ST E R : CHICAGO 23 Mike Smith is 8-1 UNDER in a road game where the total is 35.5-42 points as coach of ATLANTA.
BuFFaLo BiLLS vs kanSaS city chieFS (-6½)
• (459) BUFFALO (2010 SU: 4-12, 2010 ATS: 7-7-2) at (460) KANSAS CITY (2010 SU: 10-7, 2010 ATS: 9-8)
team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod BUFFALO -8.9 24 18 16 25-108 (4.3) 32-18-197 (6.1) 57-305 (5.4) 1-1 27 21 36-170 (4.8) 30-18-192 (6.5) 66-362 (5.5) 1-1 -17 KANSAS CITY +1.0 18 22 19 34-161 (4.8) 29-17-178 (6.1) 63-339 (5.4) 0-1 21 19 26-112 (4.3) 36-20-222 (6.1) 62-334 (5.4) 1-1 +6 game Breakdown: The Chiefs rode a weak schedule to the key Betting trend: playoff s last year, and they’ll have a chance to start 2011 on the KANSAS CITY is 13-28 ATS against AFC East division opponents since 1992. right foot when they host Buff alo. K.C. played just four teams who fi nished with winning records last year, going 1-3 SU and ATS. They did top the Bills in Week 8 at home, but it wasn’t pretty: SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: 13-10 in overtime Buff alo K Rian Lindell missed a potential winner KANSAS CITY is 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) vs. BUFFALO (0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU at home.) from 53). Jamaal Charles led a monster ground eff ort in that game, going for 177 of K.C.’s 274 rushing yards. Buff alo is hoping StatFox Six Pack: the addition of No. 3 pick Marcell Dareus, a run-stuffi ng DE, and KANSAS CITY is 67-46 against the 1H line at home in games played on a grass field since 1992. former Packers LB Nick Barnett will fi x their woes against the run. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of BUFFALO’s last 10 games on the road against KANSAS CITY. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of KANSAS CITY’s last 6 games at home. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of BUFFALO’s last 10 games. STAT F Ox BUFFALO 19 KANSAS CITY is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing BUFFALO. F O R E c A ST E R : KANSAS CITY 23 KANSAS CITY is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against BUFFALO.
SuPER SiTuATiONS
Situational analysis uncovers • Play On - Favorites (CLEVE- • Play Against - Road teams • Play Against - Home teams conditions and patterns where LAND, JACKSONVILLE, NY where the line is +3 to -3 (PITTS- where the line is +3 to -3 (DEN- teams have consistently outper- GIANTS) - in the fi rst week of BURGH, INDIANAPOLIS) - fi rst VER) - poor rushing defense formed or underperformed their the season, after closing out last week of the season, after closing from last season - allowed 130 or normal levels. These systems are season with 3 or more straight out last season strong with 4 or more rushing yards/game, versus not team specifi c—the principle ATS losses more wins in last 5 games, team division opponents is that teams fall into patterns re- that had a winning record last gardless of personnel (i.e. good • The situation’s record is 33-10 season • The situation’s record is 36-13 passing teams, teams seeking since 1983 (76.7%, +22 units). since 1983 (73.5%, +21.7 units). revenge, cold teams on a losing • The situation’s record is 23-5 streak, etc.). rating = *** since 1983 (82.1%, +17.5 units). rating = ** rating = **
www.StatFox.com 5 T he P lat i n um S heet
NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 1
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS vs HOUSTON TEXANS (-9)
• (461) INDIANAPOLIS (2010 SU: 10-7, 2010 ATS: 8-8-1) at (462) HOUSTON (2010 SU: 6-10, 2010 ATS: 5-10-1)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod INDIANAPOLIS +2.7 21 27 22 25-93 (3.8) 42-28-284 (6.8) 67-377 (5.6) 0-1 24 20 28-129 (4.6) 33-22-213 (6.4) 61-342 (5.6) 1-1 -3 HOUSTON -2.3 21 24 22 26-128 (4.8) 36-23-259 (7.2) 62-387 (6.2) 0-1 27 22 27-109 (4.0) 34-22-268 (7.8) 61-377 (6.2) 0-1 0
Game Breakdown: Indianapolis announced Monday that Betting System: quarterback Peyton Manning is “likely doubtful” for the Colts’ Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 - first week of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or 5 opener, a development that sent the line from a field goal to nine. wins in last 5 games, team that had a winning record last season. (5-23 ATS) Play = HOUSTON ATS RB Arian Foster, who is expected to start despite having suffered a hamstring injury on Aug. 20, rushed for 333 yards and four TDs Series history – Last 5 seasons: in two games vs. Indy last season. Houston nosedived after last HOUSTON is 6-4 ATS (2-8 SU) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (4-1 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.) year’s opening win, finishing 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS. But they ad- dressed their pass defense, adding CB Johnathan Joseph and FS StatFox Six Pack: Danieal Manning. The Colts dropped their last four games SU (1-3 Gary Kubiak is 21-9 OVER versus division opponents as coach of HOUSTON. ATS) against teams that played a 3-4 base last year. INDIANAPOLIS is 53-34 OVER as a road underdog since 1992. INDIANAPOLIS is 96-66 OVER in road lined games since 1992. INDIANAPOLIS is 48-30 OVER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. Stat F ox INDIANAPOLIS 27 INDIANAPOLIS is 23-11 OVER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992. F ore c aster : HOUSTON 26 INDIANAPOLIS is 67-43 OVER in games played on a grass field since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-5) vs ST. LOUIS RAMS
• (463) PHILADELPHIA (2010 SU: 10-7, 2010 ATS: 8-9) at (464) ST. LOUIS (2010 SU: 7-9, 2010 ATS: 10-6)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod PHILADELPHIA +3.4 22 27 20 26-142 (5.4) 35-22-245 (7.0) 61-387 (6.3) 1-1 23 19 27-111 (4.2) 33-19-214 (6.5) 60-325 (5.4) 1-1 +10 ST LOUIS -2.4 17 18 18 27-99 (3.7) 37-22-204 (5.5) 64-303 (4.7) 0-1 20 19 25-113 (4.5) 36-20-224 (6.3) 61-337 (5.5) 1-1 +5
Game Breakdown: The Eagles put themselves in the Super key Betting trend: Bowl conversation with their offseason spending spree, and they’ll PHILADELPHIA is 28-12 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. get their first test when they kick off the season against the up- and-coming Rams. Philadelphia’s revamped secondary, now led by shut-down CB Nnamdi Asomugha, should throw a wrench into Series history – Last 5 seasons: the Rams’ plans to throw early and often. Philly was 7-1 SU and ST LOUIS is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. PHILADELPHIA (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) 5-3 ATS against non-playoff teams when QB Michael Vick started and finished the game last year while the Rams lost all three of StatFox Six Pack: their matchups, SU and ATS, by at least 14 points against 2010 ST LOUIS is 83-113 ATS against conference opponents since 1992. playoff teams, including two at home (Kansas City and Atlanta). ST LOUIS is 25-12 against the 1H line as a home underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Andy Reid is 98-60 ATS against conference opponents as coach of PHILADELPHIA. Andy Reid is 63-40 ATS in road lined games as coach of PHILADELPHIA. Stat F ox PHILADELPHIA 24 PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 OVER away against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : ST. LOUIS 19 Andy Reid is 78-53 against the 1H line as a favorite.
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs CLEVELAND BROWNS (-5)
• (465) CINCINNATI (2010 SU: 4-12, 2010 ATS: 7-9) at (466) CLEVELAND (2010 SU: 5-11, 2010 ATS: 5-10-1)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod CINCINNATI -4.6 23 20 20 27-95 (3.6) 37-23-235 (6.4) 64-330 (5.2) 1-1 25 18 26-115 (4.4) 32-20-217 (6.7) 58-332 (5.7) 1-1 -8 CLEVELAND -3.8 22 17 17 26-103 (4.0) 30-18-187 (6.3) 56-290 (5.2) 1-1 21 20 32-129 (4.1) 32-19-221 (7.0) 64-350 (5.5) 1-1 -1
Game Breakdown: The Browns have a chance to distance Betting System: themselves from Cincinnati this year, but they’ll have to beat Favorites - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS them at home to do it. Cleveland is 1-4 SU, but 3-2 ATS, against losses. (33-10 ATS) Play = CLEVELAND against the spread the Bengals over their past five matchups, including a split last year (each team won SU and ATS at home). This year, Cleveland Series history – Last 5 seasons: will have a more seasoned QB Colt McCoy under center, and CLEVELAND is 5-5 ATS (3-7 SU) vs. CINCINNATI (3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.) he’s better-suited to new head coach Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense. The Bengals finished strong last year (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS), StatFox Six Pack: but QB Carson Palmer retired, possibly leaving them with second- CLEVELAND is 7-0 over the 1H total in a home game where total is 35.5-38 points over the L3 seasons. round QB Andy Dalton as their starter. CLEVELAND is 10-2 over the 1H total in a home game where total is 35.5-42 points over the L3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 6-0 over the 1H total at home against conference opponents over the L2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 99-132 ATS against conference opponents since 1992. Stat F ox CINCINNATI 20 CINCINNATI is 55-79 ATS versus division opponents since 1992. F ore c aster : CLEVELAND 22 CINCINNATI is 50-73 against the 1H line as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
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tenneSSee titanS vs JackSonViLLe JaguarS (-3)
• (467) TENNESSEE (2010 SU: 6-10, 2010 ATS: 8-8) at (468) JACKSONVILLE (2010 SU: 8-8, 2010 ATS: 9-7)
team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod TENNESSEE +1.1 20 22 16 25-108 (4.3) 30-17-194 (6.6) 55-302 (5.5) 1-1 21 22 30-116 (3.9) 39-26-252 (6.4) 69-368 (5.3) 0-1 -4 JACKSONVILLE -4.1 19 22 21 32-149 (4.7) 29-18-192 (6.5) 61-341 (5.6) 1-1 26 20 26-122 (4.7) 32-21-250 (7.9) 58-372 (6.4) 0-1 -15 game Breakdown: The Titans will debut a new head coach Betting SyStem: (long-time assistant Mike Munchak), and at press time Tennessee Favorites - in the fi rst week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS was still dealing with superstar RB Chris Johnson’s holdout. They’ll losses. (33-10 ATS) Play = JACKSONVILLE against the spread also have a new quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck. The Titans have won three of their past four trips to Jacksonville, SU and ATS. SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: The Jags hope to have RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee) near 100 JACKSONVILLE is 4-6 ATS (4-6 SU) vs. TENNESSEE (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.) percent. They attempted to rebuild their defense in the off season, adding LBs Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, but they’re lacking StatFox Six Pack: on the off ensive line (DE Aaron Kampman is coming off another Jack Del Rio is 27-13 under the 1H total as a home favorite as coach of JACKSONVILLE. knee injury) and secondary. Jack Del Rio is 34-23 under the 1H total as a favorite as coach of JACKSONVILLE. Jack Del Rio is 18-9 under the 1H total as a home favorite of 7 points or less as coach of JACKSONVILLE. Jack Del Rio is 39-25 under the 1H total in home lined games as coach of JACKSONVILLE. STAT F Ox TENNESSEE 22 The total has gone UNDER in 5 of TENNESSEE’s last 6 games when playing JACKSONVILLE. F O R E c A ST E R : JACKSONVILLE 25 JACKSONVILLE is 8-16 ATS at home since the start of the 2008 season.
new york giantS (-3½) vs waShington redSkinS
• (469) NEW YORK GIANTS (2010 SU: 10-6, 2010 ATS: 7-9) at (470) WASHINGTON (2010 SU: 6-10, 2010 ATS: 8-5-3)
team oFFenSe team deFenSe PdiF SS PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i PPg Fd ruShing PaSSing totaL F-i tod NY GIANTS +2.9 20 25 21 30-138 (4.6) 34-21-243 (7.2) 64-381 (6.0) 1-2 22 16 24-101 (4.2) 34-19-209 (6.2) 58-310 (5.3) 1-1 -3 WASHINGTON -4.7 21 19 18 22-91 (4.2) 38-22-245 (6.5) 60-336 (5.6) 1-1 24 20 28-128 (4.6) 36-23-262 (7.2) 64-390 (6.1) 1-1 -4 game Breakdown: The Giants are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Betting SyStem: the Skins over the past fi ve seasons, including 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS Favorites - in the fi rst week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS at Washington (where they’ve outscored them by 13.0 PPG). Eli losses. (33-10 ATS) Play = NY GIANTS against the spread Manning plays his best football when the weather is warm (89.6 career passer rating in September), and the Giants are 7-2 SU and SerieS hiStory – LaSt 5 SeaSonS: 6-3 ATS over the past three Septembers. Washington’s defense WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS (1-9 SU) vs. NY GIANTS (1-4 ATS, 0-5 SU at home.) should be improved after a rough transition to coordinator Jim Haslett’s 3-4 alignment, but the Skins are relying on rookie Ryan StatFox Six Pack: Kerrigan, a college DE, to make the transition to OLB and improve WASHINGTON is 57-35 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. an anemic pass rush (tied for 25th with 29 sacks in 2011). WASHINGTON is 25-41 ATS at home versus division opponents since 1992. WASHINGTON is 132-99 UNDER against conference opponents since 1992. Tom Coughlin is 30-14 ATS away against conference opponents as coach of NY GIANTS. STAT F Ox NEW YORK GIANTS 24 Tom Coughlin is 14-6 ATS as a road favorite as coach of NY GIANTS. F O R E c A ST E R : WASHINGTON 20 NY GIANTS are 12-1 UNDER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. StatFox.com Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content
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NFL GAME BREAKDOWNS: WEEK 1
CAROLINA PANTHERS vs ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5½)
• (471) CAROLINA (SU: 2-14, ATS: 4-12) at (472) ARIZONA (SU: 5-11, ATS: 5-11)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod CAROLINA -13.3 20 12 14 27-115 (4.3) 30-16-143 (4.7) 57-258 (4.5) 1-1 26 20 31-124 (3.9) 33-20-212 (6.5) 64-336 (5.2) 1-1 -8 ARIZONA -9.1 17 18 15 20-87 (4.3) 35-18-182 (5.2) 55-269 (4.9) 1-1 27 21 33-145 (4.4) 33-20-229 (6.9) 66-374 (5.7) 1-1 -5
Game Breakdown: Carolina and Arizona will likely be breaking key Betting trend: in new QBs for this one. The Cards traded for ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb, CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less over the L3 seasons. in part because of days like they had in Carolina last December. Arizona mustered just 218 yards of offense with John Skelton under center in a 19-12 loss to the Panthers in Week 15. Kolb will Series history – Last 5 seasons: likely have to throw often considering they’re thin behind RB ARIZONA is 2-3 ATS (1-4 SU) vs. CAROLINA (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU at home.) Beanie Wells, but the Panthers defended the pass well last year (212.1 net yards/game, 11th in NFL). Carolina will likely start No. 1 StatFox Six Pack: pick Cam Newton. He’s raw as a passer, but his athleticism adds a ARIZONA is 50-30 OVER in dome games since 1992. threat to the offense along with healthy RB DeAngelo Williams. ARIZONA is 72-46 OVER in games played on turf since 1992. Ken Whisenhunt is 41-28 OVER in all lined games as coach of ARIZONA. CAROLINA is 4-12 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox CAROLINA 16 CAROLINA is 3-10 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : ARIZONA 20 CAROLINA is 62-38 against the 1H line as a road underdog since 1992.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-6)
• (473) SEATTLE (SU: 8-10, ATS: 8-10) at (474) SAN FRANCISCO (SU: 6-10, ATS: 7-9)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod SEATTLE -5.7 18 21 16 23-89 (3.8) 35-21-214 (6.2) 58-303 (5.2) 1-1 27 20 29-120 (4.2) 37-22-258 (6.9) 66-378 (5.7) 1-1 -8 SAN FRANCISCO -2.6 17 19 16 25-104 (4.1) 31-18-210 (6.7) 56-314 (5.6) 0-1 22 19 28-97 (3.5) 34-22-231 (6.7) 62-328 (5.3) 0-1 -1
Game Breakdown: The Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco KEY Betting Trend: starts against the defending NFC West champions. Last Decem- SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L2 seasons. ber, the Niners intercepted then-Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck four times en route to a 40-21 win (they led by as many as 33 points). And the Seahawks have likely downgraded at QB, with either Series history – Last 5 seasons: Charlie Whitehurst or Tavaris Jackson taking over under center; SAN FRANCISCO is 5-5 ATS (5-5 SU) vs. SEATTLE (3-2 ATS, 3-2 SU at home.) they did add two strong receivers in WR Sidney Rice and TE Zach Miller. The Niners have an even weaker QB situation, with StatFox Six Pack: Alex Smith likely to get the start. They’ll try to grind it out on the SAN FRANCISCO is 47-27 OVER in a home game where the total is 35.5-42 points since 1992. ground with RB Frank Gore (if he’s not holding out). SAN FRANCISCO is 144-93 over the 1H total against conference opponents since 1992. SAN FRANCISCO is 59-37 against the 1H line as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. SEATTLE is 2-13 ATS as a road underdog over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox SEATTLE 20 SEATTLE is 3-14 ATS in road lined games over the L3 seasons. F ore c aster : SAN FRANCISCO 26 SEATTLE is 10-3 OVER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS vs SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-8½)
• (475) MINNESOTA (SU: 6-10, ATS: 5-11) at (476) SAN DIEGO (SU: 9-7, ATS: 8-8)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod MINNESOTA -4.2 23 18 18 28-121 (4.4) 32-19-194 (6.1) 60-315 (5.2) 1-2 22 17 26-102 (3.9) 33-21-210 (6.4) 59-312 (5.3) 1-1 -11 SAN DIEGO +7.4 18 28 22 29-113 (4.0) 34-22-282 (8.3) 63-395 (6.3) 1-1 20 15 25-94 (3.7) 30-18-177 (5.8) 55-271 (4.9) 0-1 -6
Game Breakdown: The Chargers closed out last season with key Betting trend: SU wins in seven of their final nine contests (6-3 ATS). By the end Norv Turner is 13-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as coach of SAN DIEGO. of 2010, they seemed to have sorted out the special teams issues that had cost them dearly early on, and now they’ll get a full sea- son of 2010 holdouts WR Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill. Series history – Last 5 seasons: The Vikings went 3-3 SU and ATS after Leslie Frazier was installed SAN DIEGO is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. MINNESOTA (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) as head coach, but the record looks better than the actual perfor- mance. They lost big to the Giants (by 18), Chicago (by 26) and StatFox Six Pack: Detroit (by 7) and their wins were unimpressive, beating Buffalo, SAN DIEGO is 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992. Washington, then Philadelphia in a fluky snow-out Tuesday game. Norv Turner is 9-1 ATS at home against NFC North division opponents. SAN DIEGO is 46-29 OVER in non-conference games since 1992. MINNESOTA is 1-9 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox MINNESOTA 17 MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : SAN DIEGO 27 MINNESOTA is 48-23 OVER in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
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DALLAS COWBOYS vs NEW YORK JETS (-4)
• (477) DALLAS (SU: 6-10, ATS: 6-10) at (478) NEW YORK JETS (SU: 13-6, ATS: 11-8)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod DALLAS -2.6 21 25 20 27-112 (4.2) 36-24-252 (7.0) 63-364 (5.8) 1-1 27 19 25-109 (4.3) 34-22-243 (7.2) 59-352 (6.0) 1-1 0 NY JETS +3.5 23 23 19 33-144 (4.4) 32-18-201 (6.2) 65-345 (5.3) 0-1 19 18 27-96 (3.6) 33-17-200 (6.1) 60-296 (4.9) 1-1 +10
Game Breakdown: This will also be a battle of the Ryan KEY Betting trend: brothers: Jets head coach Rex and new Cowboys defensive NY JETS are 14-5 OVER in all lined games over the L2 seasons. coordinator Rob. The Cowboys went 5-3 ATS after Jason Garrett was promoted to head coach last year, but they haven’t played a game with QB Tony Romo since last October, and went 1-5 SU and Series history – Last 5 seasons: ATS in his starts. On the other side, the Jets are breaking in a new NY JETS is 0-1 ATS (0-1 SU) vs. DALLAS (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.) group of receivers (aside from Santonio Holmes), and they kicked off last year with a dud at home against Baltimore. Despite their StatFox Six Pack: strong finish to 2010 (4-2 SU and ATS, including playoffs), the Jets NY JETS are 44-22 under the 1H total as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992. are no sure thing to pick up where they left off. NY JETS are 27-10 under the 1H total as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. NY JETS are 88-61 under the 1H total in home lined games since 1992. NY JETS are 57-37 under the 1H total in a home game where the total is 35.5-42 points since 1992. Stat F ox DALLAS 21 DALLAS is 13-3 OVER in all lined games over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : NEW YORK JETS 28 DALLAS is 27-12 under the 1H total away in non-conference games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-5½) vs MIAMI DOLPHINS
• (479) NEW ENGLAND (SU: 14-3, ATS: 10-6-1) at (480) MIAMI (SU: 7-9, ATS: 8-8)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod NEW ENGLAND +11.6 23 32 21 28-123 (4.3) 32-21-242 (7.4) 60-365 (6.1) 0-0 20 21 26-109 (4.2) 37-24-255 (6.8) 63-364 (5.8) 1-1 +27 MIAMI -3.8 24 17 19 28-103 (3.7) 35-21-220 (6.3) 63-323 (5.1) 1-1 21 16 28-100 (3.6) 31-18-209 (6.7) 59-309 (5.2) 0-1 -11
Game Breakdown: Miami is looking to put last year’s late-sea- KEY Betting trend: son collapse in the rearview mirror, but it won’t be easy when they NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 OVER as a favorite over the L2 seasons. host New England. The Pats destroyed Miami twice last season, beating them by a combined score of 79-21. With a season-ending 38-7 drubbing in Miami, the Fins lost their final three games. New Series history – Last 5 seasons: England will undoubtedly be explosive offensive again with QB MIAMI is 5-5 ATS (3-7 SU) vs. NEW ENGLAND (2-3 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.) Tom Brady under center. They’ll also have a healthier WR Wes Welker, who rushed back from a torn ACL in 2010. While the Dol- StatFox Six Pack: phins have a respectable defense, the offense is a different story. MIAMI is 65-89 ATS in home lined games since 1992. QB Chad Henne has yet to adjust to the NFL. Tony Sparano is 5-14 against the 1H line at home against conference opponents as coach of MIAMI. NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS in road lined games since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 41-23 ATS away versus division opponents since 1992. Stat F ox NEW ENGLAND 27 NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 OVER in all lined games over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : MIAMI 19 NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 OVER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
OAKLAND RAIDERS vs DENVER BRONCOS (pk)
• (481) OAKLAND (SU: 8-8, ATS: 8-8) at (482) DENVER (SU: 4-12, ATS: 6-10)
Team Offense Team Defense PDif SS PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-I PPG Fd rushing Passing total F-i tod OAKLAND +2.4 18 26 19 31-156 (5.0) 31-18-199 (6.5) 62-355 (5.7) 1-1 23 18 30-134 (4.5) 29-16-189 (6.4) 59-323 (5.5) 1-1 -2 DENVER -7.9 20 22 19 25-96 (3.9) 36-21-252 (7.0) 61-348 (5.7) 1-1 29 21 33-155 (4.7) 31-19-236 (7.5) 64-391 (6.1) 0-1 -9
Game Breakdown: A year ago, the Raiders hammered the Betting System: Broncos twice while going 6-0 SU and ATS against AFC West Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - poor rushing defense from last season - allowed 130 or more opponents. The Raiders have won five straight ATS and three in a rushing yards/game, versus division opponents. (13-36 ATS) Play = OAKLAND against the spread row SU in Denver. But Oakland lost All-Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha and top receiver TE Zach Miller in free agency. The Broncos hired Series history – Last 5 seasons: long-time Carolina head coach John Fox to try and right their DENVER is 2-8 ATS (5-5 SU) vs. OAKLAND (0-5 ATS, 2-3 SU at home.) ship. QB Kyle Orton, coming off his best statistical season, will pilot a more conservative offense. Denver is converting back to StatFox Six Pack: a 4-3 defense, but DT’s Marcus Thomas and Ty Warren are both DENVER is 92-62 OVER in home lined games since 1992. unlikely to play in this game because of injury. John Fox is 22-5 UNDER at home versus division opponents. John Fox is 35-20 UNDER at home against conference opponents. OAKLAND is 29-61 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. Stat F ox OAKLAND 31 OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS versus division opponents over the L2 seasons. F ore c aster : DENVER 23 OAKLAND is 10-2 over the 1H total against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
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Handicapping Insight Season Opening Power Trends Boost your | | bankoll with 14 5 Road Underdogs in Week 1 powerful trends that were 6-10 SU or worse the prior season boast an from over the impressive 29-16-2 ATS (64%) last 10-plus record since 2000. Potential Plays: seasons that • DETROIT over TAMPA BAY apply to NFL • BUFFALO over KANSAS CITY Week 1 games • CINCINNATI over CLEVELAND • TENNESSEE over JACKSONVILLE • CAROLINA over ARIZONA • MINNESOTA over SAN DIEGO • DALLAS over NY JETS | | 1 | 6 | Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent In season-opening games who was .500 or better last with extremely high totals, season have converted on 35 meaning those at 45.5 or of their last 51 opportunities, more, the UNDER has gone for 69%. a very impressive 22-7 (76%) since 2001. Potential Plays: • GREEN BAY over NEW ORLEANS Potential Plays: • NEW ORLEANS/GREEN BAY UNDER • BALTIMORE over PITTSBURGH • INDIANAPOLIS/HOUSTON UNDER • HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS Four season-opening power trends suggest that Knowshon Moreno's Broncos will cover against the Raiders on Monday night. | 2 | | 3 | | 4 | | 7 | Home Favorites that had a In games where there is a All Favorites of exactly 3 When the difference in the worse SU record than their road favorite, UNDER the points boast a 34-11 SU & 25- teams’ PPG Margin from the opponent the prior year are total has thrived, going 41-18 13 ATS (66%) mark in Week 1 prior year is 10.0 or greater, 23-7 ATS (77%) in Week 1 (70%) since 2000 in Week 1. since 2000. the team with the worse since 2001. differential owns a 23-13 ATS Potential Plays: Potential Plays: (64%) record in Week 1 since Potential Plays: • PHILADELPHIA/ST. LOUIS UNDER • TAMPA BAY over DETROIT 2001. • GREEN BAY over NEW ORLEANS • NEW ENGLAND/MIAMI UNDER • HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS Potential Plays: • HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS • NY GIANTS/WASHINGTON UNDER • JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE • MINNESOTA over SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO over SEATTLE • ATLANTA'CHICAGO UNDER • MIAMI over NEW ENGLAND • DENVER over OAKLAND • DENVER over OAKLAND
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w w w .St a t F o x . c o m | 11 | Depending on where the line ends up, there could be as many as five season-opening power trends on the side of Andre Johnson's Texans against the division-rival Colts. When a Home team that didn’t make the playoffs the prior year is favored over a Road team that did in Week 1, that host club is on an 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS (77%) run.
Potential Plays: • HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS • SAN FRANCISCO over SEATTLE | 12 | There has also been a significant lean to UNDER the total in games where the home team is favored by 4 points or more, 25-14 (64%) since 2005.
Potential Plays: • NEW ORLEANS/GREEN BAY UNDER • BUFFALO/KANSAS CITY UNDER • CINCINNATI/CLEVELAND UNDER • CAROLINA/ARIZONA UNDER • SEATTLE/SAN FRANCISCO UNDER • MINNESOTA/SAN DIEGO UNDER • DALLAS/NY JETS UNDER | 13 | Home Favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-5 SU & ATS (67%) since 2001.
Potential Plays: • BALTIMORE over PITTSBURGH • DENVER over OAKLAND | 8 | | 9 | | 10 | | 14 | Divisional favorites of 3 points In Non-Divisional Conference Over 59% of the Week 1 When two winning teams or less boast an incredible games with Road Favorites, NFL games since 2000 from the prior year have record 16-5 SU & 15-5-1 ATS the UNDER is on a 19-5 (79%) have gone UNDER the total. played in Week 1, UNDER the (75%) since 2000 on kickoff run in Week 1 of the NFL If you’re looking for total total has gone 21-10 (68%) weekend. season. edges beyond that, in games since 2003. with totals of 36 or less, the Potential Plays: Potential Plays: Potential Plays: UNDER is 16-8 (67%) since • BALTIMORE over PITTSBURGH • ATLANTA/CHICAGO UNDER 2001. • NEW ORLEANS/GREEN BAY UNDER • HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS • PHILADELPHIA/ST. LOUIS UNDER • PITTSBURGH/BALTIMORE UNDER Potential Plays: • JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE • CINCINNATI/CLEVELAND UNDER • ATLANTA/CHICAGO UNDER • DENVER over OAKLAND • PITTSBURGH/BALTIMORE UNDER • CAROLINA/ARIZONA UNDER
www.StatFox.com 11 The Platinum Sheet
college football power ratings
The StatFox Power Ratings are generated by a formula that weighs such Key: OL Opening Line key factors as point margins, strength of schedule and team stats. Plus, our PR StatFox Power Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) exclusive home-field advantage points are built into each home team’s rating PRL Calculated Power Rating Line and corresponding line. The ratings are not as reactive as those found elsewhere, Edge The difference between the Power Rating Line and thus have proven over the years to be an excellent long-term football and the actual opening line handicapping tool. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers
1. Stanford (-16.5) over DUKE 20.5 4. OHIO STATE (-17.5) over Toledo 14.5 TOP STATFOX POWER 2. Connecticut (Pk) over VANDERBILT 15 5. Tulsa (-12.5) over TULANE 11.5 RATING EDGES: 3. AUBURN (+6) over Mississippi State 15 6. Northern Illinois (-5) over KANSAS 11
Thurs - 9/8, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 6:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 301 ARIZONA 45 0.5 327 TULSA -12.5 39 -24 11.5 353 TEMPLE -14 32 -19 5 302 OKLAHOMA STATE -14.5 59 -14 328 TULANE 15 354 AKRON 13
Fri - 9/9, 10:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 303 MISSOURI 47 3.5 329 VIRGINIA TECH -19 52 -22 3 355 FRESNO STATE 31 5.5 304 ARIZONA STATE -6.5 50 -3 330 EAST CAROLINA 30 356 NEBRASKA -26.5 52 -21
Fri - 9/9, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 305 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 29 331 NEW MEXICO STATE 9 357 VIRGINIA -7 31 -4 306 LOUISVILLE -4.5 42 -13 8.5 332 MINNESOTA -18 35 -26 8 358 INDIANA 27 3
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 307 OREGON STATE 41 333 HAWAII 38 3.5 359 BYU 48 6 308 WISCONSIN -18 62 -21 3 334 WASHINGTON -3.5 38 0 360 TEXAS -7 49 -1
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 309 IOWA -6.5 44 -10 3.5 335 NEVADA 50 6.5 361 UAB 30 310 IOWA STATE 34 336 OREGON -22.5 66 -16 362 FLORIDA -20.5 56 -26 5.5
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 311 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 29 2 337 CALIFORNIA -3.5 38 -1 363 BALL STATE 20 312 KENTUCKY -14 41 -12 338 COLORADO 37 2.5 364 SOUTH FLORIDA -23 48 -28 5
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 313 SAN DIEGO STATE -9 40 -8 339 STANFORD -16.5 66 -37 20.5 365 NEW MEXICO 13 314 ARMY 32 1 340 DUKE 29 366 ARKANSAS -34.5 58 -45 10.5
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 315 TOLEDO 33 341 ALABAMA -10 64 -18 8 367 UNLV 17 1.5 316 OHIO STATE -17.5 65 -32 14.5 342 PENN STATE 46 368 WASHINGTON STATE -15.5 31 -14
Sat - 9/10, 12:20 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 317 MISSISSIPPI STATE -6 51 343 TCU -2 58 -11 9 369 CONNECTICUT 42 -15 15 318 AUBURN 60 -9 15 344 AIR FORCE 47 370 VANDERBILT Pk 27
Sat - 9/10, 12:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 319 RUTGERS 34 345 NC STATE 45 -12 371 UTAH 45 9.5 320 NORTH CAROLINA -9.5 48 -14 4.5 346 WAKE FOREST 33 372 USC -10.5 46 -1
Sat - 9/10, 2:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 321 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -5 46 -16 11 347 PURDUE 27 -1 3 373 BOSTON COLLEGE 37 322 KANSAS 30 348 RICE -2 26 374 CENTRAL FLORIDA -6 51 -14 8
Sat - 9/10, 3:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 8:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 323 UTEP 24 349 SOUTHERN MISS 37 -8 375 NOTRE DAME -3 44 -7 4 324 SMU 32 -8 350 MARSHALL 29 376 MICHIGAN 37
Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 4:30 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 10:00 PM OL PR PRL Edge W/L 325 CINCINNATI 41 1.5 351 SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 51 377 SAN JOSE STATE 15 326 TENNESSEE -7.5 47 -6 352 GEORGIA 52 -1 3.5 378 UCLA -21 37 -22 1
12 www.StatFox.com See page 23 for the remainder of the College Football Power Ratings The PlaTinum SheeT
PreSenTS The weeK’S beST beTS
WEEK 2 COLLEGE FOOTBALL FEATURED MATCHUPS StatFox StatFox DAVE StatFox GARY StatFox FORECASTER StatFox CONSENSUS [ (BB) = BEST BET ] StatFox SCOTT StatFox BRIAN • (301) ARIZONA at (302) OKLAHOMA STATE -14½ ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA • (303) MISSOURI at (304) ARIZONA STATE -7 ARIZONA STATE ARIZONA STATE MISSOURI MISSOURI ARIZONA STATE ARIZONA STATE • (307) OREGON STATE at (308) WISCONSIN -17½ WISCONSIN (BB) WISCONSIN (BB) WISCONSIN WISCONSIN (BB) OREGON STATE WISCONSIN • (309) IOWA at (310) IOWA STATE +7 IOWA IOWA (BB) IOWA IOWA (BB) IOWA IOWA • (317) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (318) AUBURN +6 AUBURN (BB) MISSISSIPPI STATE MISSISSIPPI STATE AUBURN AUBURN AUBURN • (325) CINCINNATI at (326) TENNESSEE -6 TENNESSEE (BB) TENNESSEE (BB) TENNESSEE (BB) TENNESSEE TENNESSEE TENNESSEE • (329) VIRGINIA TECH at (330) EAST CAROLINA +19½ EAST CAROLINA EAST CAROLINA EAST CAROLINA (BB) EAST CAROLINA VIRGINIA TECH EAST CAROLINA • (335) NEVADA at (336) OREGON -26 OREGON OREGON NEVADA NEVADA NEVADA NEVADA • (337) CALIFORNIA at (338) COLORADO +3½ CALIFORNIA COLORADO COLORADO (BB) COLORADO (BB) COLORADO COLORADO • (339) STANFORD at (340) DUKE +18½ STANFORD STANFORD (BB) STANFORD (BB) STANFORD (BB) STANFORD STANFORD • (341)ALABAMA at (342) PENN STATE +10½ PENN STATE PENN STATE ALABAMA PENN STATE ALABAMA PENN STATE • (343) TCU at (344) AIR FORCE +2 AIR FORCE TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU • (351) SOUTH CAROLINA at (352) GEORGIA +3 GEORGIA SOUTH CAROLINA (BB) GEORGIA (BB) GEORGIA GEORGIA GEORGIA • (359) BYU at (360) TEXAS -6½ TEXAS (BB) BYU BYU TEXAS BYU BYU • (371) UTAH at (372) USC -10½ USC (BB) USC UTAH UTAH (BB) UTAH UTAH • (375) NOTRE DAME at (376) MICHIGAN +4 MICHIGAN MICHIGAN MICHIGAN MICHIGAN NOTRE DAME MICHIGAN
9/10/2011 9/10/2011 9/10/2011 9/10/2011 9/10/2011 oregon ST iowa california STanforD uTah at wiSconSin at iowa ST at coloraDo at DuKe at uSc This is an absolute mis- Iowa has outscored its Colorado will play its fi rst All signs point to Stanford After a two-point win match as the Beavers are in-state rival 87 to 15 in Pac-12 conference game destroying Duke on Satur- at home over 24-point reeling after a loss to FCS the past three meetings Saturday when California day. The Andrew Luck-led underdog Minnesota, USC Sacramento State in which including a 35-7 pounding comes to town. Although Cardinal won by 54 points has no business being they benched QB Ryan Katz last year. And this ISU team the Buff aloes had a rough last week while the Blue a double-digit favorite in the second half. OSU is much worse with shaky fi rst game in Hawaii, expect Devils lost at home to FCS over any school in a BCS will hang its hat on two JUCO transfer QB Steele them to play with great Richmond for the second conference. The Trojans freshmen, QB Sean Mannion Jantz, who was 18-of-40 energy in front of the time in three years. Stanford are now 9-19 ATS (32%) as and RB Malcolm Agnew, with 3 INT in a one-point home crowd. Cal has been is 7-2 ATS in its past nine a favorite in their past 28 who shredded the Hornets win against an FCS school a horrendous team away road games, while Duke games after their near loss. for 223 yards. Both will (Northern Iowa). The from home against evenly- is 5-10 ATS in its past 15 Utah has historically been a received a rude welcome Cyclones lost the time of matched teams, going 3-17 home contests. And fi nally, great underdog play, with facing their fi rst-ever FBS possession by more than 10 ATS as a road favorite of 7 the FoxSheets provides a stellar 43-23 ATS mark opponent. The Badgers of- minutes to UNI. Look for the points or less since 1992. this three-star doozy: Play (65%) when getting points fense was up 51-3 on UNLV Hawkeyes to boost Marcus Colorado is 9-3 ATS in its On - Road favorites of 10.5 since 1992. If RB Marc Tyler before the starters left. Rus- Coker’s confi dence by past 12 home games with an to 21 points (STANFORD) doesn’t get reinstated, the sell Wilson and the RB duo handing him the rock early improving quarterback. Ty- - good passing team from Trojans have no running of Montee Ball and James and often. Coker fumbled ler Hansen tossed a pair of last season - averaged 8 game. They gained 67 yards White will run all over this twice in the opener, but had third-quarter touchdowns or more passing yards/at- on 28 carries (2.4 YPC) OSU team that allowed 180 219 rushing yards and 2 TD at Hawaii and fi nished with tempt. (23-4 over the last against a Gophers team rushing yards per game last in last year’s Insight Bowl 223 yards in his fi rst action 10 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 that allowed 191 rushing year (89th in FBS). versus Missouri. since Oct. 23 (spleen injury). units. Rating = 3*). YPG last year.
Play on: wiSconSin -17.5 Play on: iowa -7 Play on: coloraDo +3.5 Play on: STanforD -18.5 Play on: uTah +10.5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL STAFF PICKS STANDINGS *
All Games W L T Pct Last Week Best Bets W L T Pct Last Week
StatFox Brian 9 6 0 60.0% 9-6 StatFox Scott 3 1 0 75.0% 3-1
StatFox Dave 8 7 0 53.3% 8-7 StatFox Brian 3 2 0 60.0% 3-2
StatFox Scott 7 8 0 46.7% 7-8 StatFox Dave 3 2 0 60.0% 3-2
StatFox Gary 7 8 0 46.7% 7-8 StatFox Gary 2 2 0 50.0% 2-2
StatFox Consensus 7 8 0 46.7% 7-8
StatFox Forecaster 6 9 0 40.0% 6-9 * [Standings refl ect games played through Sunday, September 4.]
www.StatFox.com 13 The Platinum Sheet
College Football Outplay Factor Ratings
StatFox’s renowned Outplay Factor Ratings are an excellent indicator of Key: OL Opening Line team strength: They provide a quantitative measure of how teams are OF StatFox Outplay Factor Rating (adjusted for home field advantage) outplaying—or being outplayed by—their opponents. They are determined OFL Calculated Outplay Factor Line Edge The difference between the Outplay Factor Rating Line by a sophisticated formula that takes into account a team’s points for and and the actual opening line points against as compared to how their previous opponents have fared. W/L Keep track of the winners and losers
1. Northern Illinois (-5) over KANSAS 25.4 4. Connectictut (Pk) over VANDERBILT 21.8 TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR 2. AUBURN (+6) over Mississippi State 23.3 5. Byu (+7) over TEXAS 16.7 RATING EDGES: 3. Utah (+10.5) over USC 22.2 6. ARKANSAS ST (-13) over Memphis 16.2
Thurs - 9/8, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 6:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 301 ARIZONA 33 2.1 327 TULSA -12.5 36 -19 6.8 353 TEMPLE -14 32 -21 7.4 302 OKLAHOMA STATE -14.5 46 -12 328 TULANE 17 354 AKRON 11
Fri - 9/9, 10:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 303 MISSOURI 34 0.5 329 VIRGINIA TECH -19 44 -21 2.3 355 FRESNO STATE 23 13.9 304 ARIZONA STATE -6.5 40 -6 330 EAST CAROLINA 22 356 NEBRASKA -26.5 36 -13
Fri - 9/9, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 305 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 29 331 NEW MEXICO STATE 2.6 2.0 357 VIRGINIA -7 22 -7 306 LOUISVILLE -4.5 36 -7 2.2 332 MINNESOTA -18 19 -16 358 INDIANA 15 0.0
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 307 OREGON STATE 23 333 HAWAII 32 -10 13.2 359 BYU 36 -10 16.7 308 WISCONSIN -18 52 -30 11.6 334 WASHINGTON -3.5 23 360 TEXAS -7 26
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 309 IOWA -6.5 32 -12 5.8 335 NEVADA 42 16.2 361 UAB 22 0.8 310 IOWA STATE 20 336 OREGON -22.5 48 -6 362 FLORIDA -20.5 42 -20
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 311 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 28 9.6 337 CALIFORNIA -3.5 19 363 BALL STATE 13 1.8 312 KENTUCKY -14 33 -4 338 COLORADO 22 -2 5.9 364 SOUTH FLORIDA -23 34 -21
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 313 SAN DIEGO STATE -9 34 -7 339 STANFORD -16.5 53 -30 13.2 365 NEW MEXICO 8.2 314 ARMY 27 2.1 340 DUKE 23 366 ARKANSAS -34.5 48 -39 4.9
Sat - 9/10, 12:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 315 TOLEDO 37 1.3 341 ALABAMA -10 55 -21 10.9 367 UNLV 6.7 316 OHIO STATE -17.5 53 -16 342 PENN STATE 34 368 WASHINGTON STATE -15.5 27 -21 5.0
Sat - 9/10, 12:20 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 317 MISSISSIPPI STATE -6 35 343 TCU -2 50 -14 11.6 369 CONNECTICUT 33 -22 21.8 318 AUBURN 53 -17 23.3 344 AIR FORCE 36 370 VANDERBILT Pk 11
Sat - 9/10, 12:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 7:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 319 RUTGERS 22 345 NC STATE 34 -19 371 UTAH 38 -12 22.2 320 NORTH CAROLINA -9.5 38 -16 6.7 346 WAKE FOREST 15 372 USC -10.5 26
Sat - 9/10, 2:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 321 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -5 48 -30 25.4 347 PURDUE 12 373 BOSTON COLLEGE 26 322 KANSAS 18 348 RICE -2 22 -10 8.1 374 CENTRAL FLORIDA -6 45 -19 13.0
Sat - 9/10, 3:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 8:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 323 UTEP 19 349 SOUTHERN MISS 31 -13 375 NOTRE DAME -3 36 -9 5.8 324 SMU 24 -5 350 MARSHALL 18 376 MICHIGAN 27
Sat - 9/10, 3:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 4:30 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L Sat - 9/10, 10:00 PM OL OF OFL Edge W/L 325 CINCINNATI 27 351 SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 36 377 SAN JOSE STATE 4.1 9.0 326 TENNESSEE -7.5 36 -9 1.8 352 GEORGIA 45 -9 11.4 378 UCLA -21 16 -12
14 www.StatFox.com See page 23 for the remainder of the College Football Outplay Factor Ratings
The Platinum Sheet
College Football Week 2: SEPTEMBER 8-10
ARIZONA vs OKLAHOMA STATE (-14½)
• (301) ARIZONA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (302) OKLAHOMA ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Thursday, 9/8/2011 8:00 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD ARIZONA +31.0 -3.0 41 24 20-75 (3.8) 42-34-412 (9.8) 62-487 (7.9) 0-0 10 16 33-80 (2.4) 26-20-179 (6.9) 59-259 (4.4) 0-1 +1 OKLAHOMA ST +27.0 19.0 61 31 44-208 (4.7) 43-28-458 (10.7) 87-666 (7.7) 0-3 34 19 37-108 (2.9) 37-20-212 (5.7) 74-320 (4.3) 1-1 -1
Game Breakdown: Two explosive passing offenses square off in Stillwater on Thursday night in a rematch of the 2010 Alamo Bowl, in which OSU crushed Arizona 36-10. Cowboys WR Justin Blackmon, who had 117 receiving yards and 2 TD in that win, had 144 of OSU’s nation’s-best 458 receiving yards in its 61-34 win over Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Wild- cats QB Nick Foles, who threw for 3 INT in the Alamo Bowl defeat, was nearly flawless in Week 1, going 34-of-42 for 412 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT in a 41-10 win over Northern Arizona.
• OKLAHOMA ST is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game since 1992. Stat F ox ARIZONA 27 • Stoops is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after scoring 37+ points last game as the coach of ARIZONA. F o r e c a st e r : OKLAHOMA STATE 37 • Gundy is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.
MISSOURI vs ARIZONA STATE (-7)
• (303) MISSOURI (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (304) ARIZONA ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Friday, 9/9/2011 10:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD MISSOURI +11.0 33.0 17 15 37-162 (4.4) 26-17-129 (5.0) 63-291 (4.6) 0-1 6 19 36-76 (2.1) 39-26-194 (5.0) 75-270 (3.6) 1-1 +1 ARIZONA ST +34.0 -3.0 48 24 40-217 (5.4) 32-24-300 (9.4) 72-517 (7.2) 1-1 14 12 26-88 (3.4) 30-18-155 (5.2) 56-243 (4.3) 1-0 -1
Game Breakdown: Missouri sophomore QB James Franklin tallied 201 total yards and 2 TD in his first career start, but Missouri struggled to barely beat 19.5-point underdog Miami Ohio, 17-6. Arizona St. had no trouble with UC Davis, leading 41-0 after three quarters and winning 48-14. Brock Osweiler threw for 262 yards and 2 TD, both to Aaron Pflugrad, and the ground game rushed for 217 yards and three scores. The Sun Devils are now 12-2 ATS in their past 14 home games, while Missouri is 2-5 ATS in its past seven non-Big 12 games.
• Erickson is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. Stat F ox MISSOURI 22 • ARIZONA ST is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games after 1+ consecutive straight up wins since 1992. F o r e c a st e r : ARIZONA STATE 30 • Erickson is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs LOUISVILLE (-4)
• (305) FLA INTERNATIONAL (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (306) LOUISVILLE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Friday, 9/9/2011 7:00 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD FLA INTERNATIONAL +25.0 19.0 41 22 40-208 (5.2) 23-16-193 (8.4) 63-401 (6.4) 2-0 16 17 38-97 (2.6) 35-19-204 (5.8) 73-301 (4.1) 1-0 -1 LOUISVILLE +12.0 -3.0 21 16 37-159 (4.3) 33-17-226 (6.8) 70-385 (5.5) 3-1 9 19 49-143 (2.9) 34-17-148 (4.4) 83-291 (3.5) 0-3 -1
Game Breakdown: FIU looks to build on an impressive 41-16 rout of conference foe North Texas when it travels to Louisville Friday night. The Cardinals had a sloppy 21-9 win over 28.5-point underdog Murray State, committing four turnovers and 10 penalties, while failing to score against the FCS team in the second half. Louisville QB Will Stein threw for 226 yards and 2 TD. Golden Panthers star T.Y. Hilton gained 283 all-purpose yards as FIU had 28 first-quarter points and held UNT stud RB Lance Dunbar to 43 yards on 18 carries.
• LOUISVILLE is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers since 1992. Stat F ox FLA INTERNATIONAL 19 • LOUISVILLE is 10-5 ATS in non-conference games since 2008. F o r e c a st e r : LOUISVILLE 27 • LOUISVILLE is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games.
OREGON STATE vs WISCONSIN (-17½)
• (307) OREGON ST (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (308) WISCONSIN (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:00 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD OREGON ST -1.0 -3.0 28 22 43-266 (6.2) 36-19-230 (6.4) 79-496 (6.3) 1-1 29 20 32-71 (2.2) 36-23-296 (8.2) 68-367 (5.4) 2-0 0 WISCONSIN +34.0 19.0 51 20 38-241 (6.3) 15-11-258 (17.2) 53-499 (9.4) 0-0 17 19 38-146 (3.8) 27-18-146 (5.4) 65-292 (4.5) 0-0 0
Game Breakdown: The Beavers try to bounce back from a 29-28 overtime home loss to FCS Sacramento State when they face mighty Wisconsin. OSU junior QB Ryan Katz was benched at halftime (11-for-22, 87 yds, 1 INT) in favor of freshman Sean Mannion, who helped erase a 21-6 fourth-quarter deficit to force OT. True freshman Malcolm Agnew rushed for 223 yards and 3 TD. Wisconsin crushed UNLV 51-17 Thursday, as Russell Wilson threw for 255 yards and 2 TD in his Badgers debut and RB Montee Ball scored four times.
• OREGON ST is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in road games in the first month of the season since 1992. Stat F ox OREGON STATE 22 • WISCONSIN is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992. F o r e c a st e r : WISCONSIN 38 • Bielema is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a home win by 17+ points as the coach of WISCONSIN.
16 www.StatFox.com the PlatinuM Sheet
WWW .STAT F OX . COM
iowa (-7) vs iowa sTaTe
• (309) IOWA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (310) IOWA ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:00 PM
Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod IOWA +27.0 -3.0 34 21 33-148 (4.5) 26-15-246 (9.5) 59-394 (6.7) 1-0 7 18 45-140 (3.1) 28-17-156 (5.6) 73-296 (4.1) 0-2 +1 IOWA ST +1.0 -3.0 20 20 39-141 (3.6) 40-18-187 (4.7) 79-328 (4.2) 1-3 19 21 42-204 (4.9) 32-15-181 (5.7) 74-385 (5.2) 1-0 -3
Game Breakdown: Iowa looks for its fourth straight win over in-state rival Iowa State when the two schools meet on Saturday. The Cyclones have not reached 10 points in any of the past three meetings, getting outscored 87 to 15. The Hawkeyes rushed for 275 yards and forced 3 INT in last year’s 35-7 drubbing. Iowa’s James Vandenberg and Marvin McNutt connected for 2 TD as the Hawkeyes beat FCS Tennessee Tech 34-7. Iowa State’s contest was much tighter as it had to score a TD with 40 seconds left to beat FCS Northern Iowa.
• Ferentz is 69-50 ATS (+14.0 Units) in games played on a grass fi eld as the coach of IOWA. Stat F ox IOWA 27 • IOWA ST is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. F o R e C a St e R : IOWA STATE 16 • 8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
mississiPPi sTaTe (-6) vs auBurn
• (317) MISSISSIPPI ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (318) AUBURN (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:20 PM
Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod MISSISSIPPI ST +45.0 11.0 59 24 38-309 (8.1) 31-19-336 (10.8) 69-645 (9.3) 1-0 14 19 47-164 (3.5) 40-26-174 (4.4) 87-338 (3.9) 2-1 +2 AUBURN +4.0 24.0 42 17 30-78 (2.6) 24-18-286 (11.9) 54-364 (6.7) 0-0 38 27 53-227 (4.3) 31-22-221 (7.1) 84-448 (5.3) 0-0 0
Game Breakdown: Auburn looks to beat Mississippi State for a 10th time in 11 tries when the SEC West foes clash on Saturday. The Tigers are pitted as home underdogs after an unimpressive 42-38 win over Utah State. They were outrushed 227 to 78 and needed 2 TD in the fi nal 2:07 to win. MSU destroyed Memphis 59-14 behind 166 rush yds and 3 TD from Vick Ballard. Chris Relf threw for 202 yards and 2 TD, but is just 17-of-37 for 187 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT in two meetings versus Auburn, which is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 SEC games.
• AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after being outrushed by 125+ yards last game since 1992. Stat F ox MISSISSIPPI STATE 25 • MISSISSIPPI STATE is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road games. F o R e C a St e R : AUBURN 38 • Chizik is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after gaining 6.25+ yards/play in their previous game as the coach of AUBURN.
ruTGers vs norTh Carolina (-10)
• (319) RUTGERS (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (320) N CAROLINA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:30 PM
Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod RUTGERS +48.0 -3.0 48 20 41-137 (3.3) 34-15-210 (6.2) 75-347 (4.6) 0-1 0 8 30-8 (0.3) 30-14-112 (3.7) 60-120 (2.0) 2-2 +3 N CAROLINA +32.0 -3.0 42 24 35-184 (5.3) 23-22-277 (12.0) 58-461 (7.9) 0-1 10 10 39-59 (1.5) 16-11-152 (9.5) 55-211 (3.8) 0-0 -1
Game Breakdown: Two teams that barely broke a sweat in season-opening wins meet for the fourth time in six years on Saturday when UNC hosts Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights held UNC Central to eight rushing yards on 30 carries and forced four turnovers in their 48-0 shutout win. Freshman Savon Huggins rushed for two scores. The Tar Heels outgained James Madison 461 to 211 in their 42-10 spanking. QB Bryn Renner threw for 277 yards and 2 TD in his fi rst career start. UNC nipped favored Rutgers in last year’s meeting, 17-13.
• Schiano is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) as an underdog as the coach of RUTGERS. Stat F ox RUTGERS 21 • RUTGERS is 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. F o R e C a St e R : NORTH CAROLINA 39 • NORTH CAROLINA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
SuPeR SituationS
Situational analysis uncovers • Play On - Home favorites (LOU- • Play Against - A home team • Play On - Home underdogs conditions and patterns where ISVILLE) - team from major FBS (IOWA ST) - poor passing de- of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) - teams have consistently outper- conf. vs. team from weak FBS fense from last season - allowed team that had a winning record formed or underperformed their conference, with inexperienced comp pct of 58% or worse, with last season. normal levels. These systems are QB starter, 1st month of season. 5 off ensive starters returning. not team specifi c—the principle is that teams fall into patterns re- • The situation’s record is 65-29 • The situation’s record is 38-9 • The situation’s record is 36-10 gardless of personnel (i.e. good over the last 10 seasons (69.1%, over the last 10 seasons (80.9%, over the last 10 seasons (78.3%, passing teams, teams seeking +33.1 units). +28.1 units). +25.0 units). revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.). raTinG = *** raTinG = **** raTinG = *** www.StatFox.com 17 The Platinum Sheet
College Football Week 2: SEPTEMBER 8-10
CINCINNATI vs TENNESSEE (-6)
• (325) CINCINNATI (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (326) TENNESSEE (-6) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD CINCINNATI +62.0 -3.0 72 32 49-387 (7.9) 22-14-174 (7.9) 71-561 (7.9) 0-0 10 16 35-127 (3.6) 23-16-150 (6.5) 58-277 (4.8) 3-2 +5 TENNESSEE +26.0 -3.0 42 19 46-128 (2.8) 25-18-311 (12.4) 71-439 (6.2) 0-0 16 18 30-111 (3.7) 38-20-235 (6.2) 68-346 (5.1) 2-1 +3
Game Breakdown: Cincinnati and Tennessee square off for the first time since 1992 (a 40-0 Vols win) on Saturday. Neither school had any trouble winning their season openers, as the Bearcats throttled Austin Peay 72-10 and Tennessee waxed Montana 42-16. Zach Collaros threw four first-half touchdowns and Isaiah Pead ran for two scores in the first quar- ter as Cincinnati led 41-0 at half. Tennessee QB Tyler Bray threw 3 TD (his school-record-tying seven straight game with 2+ TD) as the Vols jumped out to a 28-0 lead.
• Derek Dooley is 8-1 OVER at home after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Stat F ox CINCINNATI 25 • TENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER in non-conference games over the L3 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : TENNEESSEE 39 • Derek Dooley is 13-4 OVER at home when playing on a Saturday.
VIRGINIA TECH (-19½) vs EAST CAROLINA
• (329) VIRGINIA TECH (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (330) E CAROLINA (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD VIRGINIA TECH +53.0 -3.0 66 21 45-256 (5.7) 28-15-262 (9.4) 73-518 (7.1) 0-0 13 11 36-117 (3.2) 26-9-176 (6.8) 62-293 (4.7) 1-3 +4 E CAROLINA -19.0 50.0 37 21 28-85 (3.0) 56-37-260 (4.6) 84-345 (4.1) 4-1 56 16 40-220 (5.5) 25-10-131 (5.2) 65-351 (5.4) 4-0 -1
Game Breakdown: Virginia Tech and East Carolina will meet for the fifth straight season on Saturday. ECU was actually leading 24-21 at halftime in last year’s meeting before the Hokies pulled away for a 49-27 victory. The Pirates were also up 24-14 at halftime last week against South Carolina before getting outscored 42-13 in the second half and lost 56-37. ECU had five turnovers in the defeat. The Hokies trounced Appalachian State 66-13 as Logan Thomas threw for two touchdowns and David Wilson ran for 162 yards and 3 TD.
• Frank Beamer is 31-10 ATS away after playing a non-conference game as coach of VIRGINIA TECH. Stat F ox VIRGINIA TECH 54 • VIRGINIA TECH is 9-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : EAST CAROLINA 27 • Frank Beamer is 41-19 ATS as a road favorite as coach of VIRGINIA TECH.
NEVADA vs OREGON (-26)
• (335) NEVADA (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0) at (336) OREGON (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD NEVADA 0.0 0 0 0-0 (0.0) 0-0-0 (0.0) 0-0 (0.0) 0-0 0 0 0-0 (0.0) 0-0-0 (0.0) 0-0 (0.0) 0-0 0 OREGON -13.0 55.0 27 18 28-95 (3.4) 54-31-240 (4.4) 82-335 (4.1) 3-1 40 18 48-175 (3.6) 22-10-98 (4.5) 70-273 (3.9) 1-0 -3
Game Breakdown: Nevada opens it season against an Oregon team trying to forget Saturday night’s loss to LSU. The Ducks were leading near the end of the first half before the Tigers ran off 24 straight points. Oregon turned the ball over four times and star RB LaMichael James was held to 54 yards on 18 carries. The Ducks could throw the ball more when they face Nevada’s 98th-ranked pass defense from a year ago (243 YPG). The Wolf Pack lost QB Colin Kaepernick, but are pleased with starting QB Tyler Lantrip, a fifth-year senior.
• OREGON is 10-0 OVER as a home favorite over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox NEVADA 25 • Chip Kelly is 7-0 OVER at home after a playing game where 60+ total points were scored as OREGON coach. F o r e c a st e r : OREGON 42 • OREGON is 11-1 OVER in home games over the L3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA (-3½) vs COLORADO
• (337) CALIFORNIA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (338) COLORADO (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD CALIFORNIA +15.0 31.0 36 18 34-147 (4.3) 35-16-266 (7.6) 69-413 (6.0) 1-1 21 11 25-68 (2.7) 33-21-142 (4.3) 58-210 (3.6) 1-1 0 COLORADO -17.0 40.0 17 15 28-17 (0.6) 30-16-223 (7.4) 58-240 (4.1) 0-1 34 19 32-165 (5.2) 33-20-178 (5.4) 65-343 (5.3) 1-0 0
Game Breakdown: California is riding high after a 36-21 win over Fresno State, and looks to stay high in the Colorado thin air Saturday. The Bears annihilated Colorado last year, winning 52-7 and holding the Buffaloes to 73 rushing yards on 43 carries (1.7 YPC). Cal has been a brutal road team lately, going 8-17 ATS (32%) in the past four seasons. Colorado is 9-3 ATS in its past dozen home games, but it won’t increase that mark with another pathetic rushing performance like its 28 carries for 17 yards in a 34-17 loss in Hawaii last week.
• Jeff Tedford is 21-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as coach of CALIFORNIA. Stat F ox CALIFORNIA 26 • COLORADO is 10-1 OVER off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L3 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : COLORADO 26 • Jeff Tedford is 3-11 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less as coach of CALIFORNIA.
18 www.StatFox.com the PlatinuM Sheet
WWW .STAT F OX . COM
sTanford (-18½) vs duke
• (339) STANFORD (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (340) DUKE (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod STANFORD +54.0 17.0 57 21 40-141 (3.5) 31-22-232 (7.5) 71-373 (5.3) 0-0 3 12 32-27 (0.8) 33-17-210 (6.4) 65-237 (3.6) 3-0 +3 DUKE -2.0 -3.0 21 22 35-178 (5.1) 34-23-201 (5.9) 69-379 (5.5) 2-0 23 13 31-95 (3.1) 31-14-193 (6.2) 62-288 (4.6) 0-1 -1
Game Breakdown: The Cardinal have to avoid overconfi dence coming off a 54-point win and facing a Duke team that just lost to an FCS squad. Andrew Luck threw 2 TD and ran in another to lead Stanford to a 57-3 rout of San Jose State. The Cardinal held the Spartans to a mere 27 rushing yards on 32 carries. Duke was also supposed to win big as a 12-point favorite over Richmond, but lost 23-21. However, the Blue Devils were not outplayed, as QB Sean Renfree threw for 201 yards and the team gained 178 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC.
• STANFORD is 6-0 ATS after a win by 28 or more points over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox STANFORD 43 • DUKE is 8-1 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the L3 seasons. F o R e C a St e R : DUKE 14 • STANFORD is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opp. by 125+ total yards in their previous game over the L2 seasons.
alaBama (-10½) vs Penn sTaTe
• (341) ALABAMA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (342) PENN ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod ALABAMA +41.0 25.0 48 24 35-183 (5.2) 37-21-299 (8.1) 72-482 (6.7) 1-4 7 6 23--9 (-0.4) 47-20-99 (2.1) 70-90 (1.3) 0-1 -4 PENN ST +34.0 -3.0 41 21 48-245 (5.1) 20-12-114 (5.7) 68-359 (5.3) 0-0 7 8 30-65 (2.2) 23-11-105 (4.6) 53-170 (3.2) 1-2 +3
Game Breakdown: Two traditional powerhouses that were not challenged in their season openers clash on Saturday when Alabama visits Penn State in Happy Valley. These two schools met last season in Tuscaloosa with the Tide rolling to a 24-3 win behind Trent Richardson’s 190 yards from scrimmage. In Week 1, Alabama held Kent State to minus-9 rush- ing yards on 23 carries and won 48-7 despite committing fi ve turnovers. Penn State beat Indiana State 41-7 with a turnover-free game and 245 rushing yards (104 from Silas Redd).
• Joe Paterno is 18-4 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite as coach of PENN ST. Stat F ox ALABAMA 35 • PENN ST is 10-0 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game over the L3 seasons. F o R e C a St e R : PENN STATE 19 • Joe Paterno is 18-4 UNDER at home after allowing 3 points or less in fi rst half last game as coach of PENN ST.
TCu (-2) vs air forCe
• (343) TCU (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (344) AIR FORCE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
Team offense Team defense Pdif ss PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i PPG fd rushinG PassinG ToTal f-i Tod TCU -2.0 40.0 48 25 38-215 (5.7) 40-25-251 (6.3) 78-466 (6.0) 0-1 50 25 36-150 (4.2) 29-23-414 (14.3) 65-564 (8.7) 1-0 0 AIR FORCE +17.0 -3.0 37 21 61-391 (6.4) 9-4-96 (10.7) 70-487 (7.0) 1-2 20 20 44-184 (4.2) 26-15-184 (7.1) 70-368 (5.3) 0-3 0
Game Breakdown: The Horned Frogs, who are still seeing green after Baylor hung 50 points on them last Friday, try to improve in a big way when they travel to Air Force Sunday. TCU QB Casey Pachall scored 5 TD (4 pass, 1 rush) and a pair of two-point conversions in leading his team to 48 points in the losing eff ort. AFA beat South Dakota by 17, but it was favored to win by 34. The Falcons rushed for 391 yards on 61 carries, only throwing nine times, but still had three turnovers. TCU is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the past six meetings with AFA.
• Gary Patterson is 13-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as coach of TCU. Stat F ox TCU 34 • AIR FORCE is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game over the L2 seasons. F o R e C a St e R : AIR FORCE 20 • Gary Patterson is 11-2 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game as coach of TCU.
Situational teaM PoWeR tRenDS
The StatFox Situational Team Power Trends uncover situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to situations (i.e. coming o a close win, against division opponents, etc.)
• OKLAHOMA STATE is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) • CINCINNATI is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a • VIRGINIA TECH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when after scoring 50 points or more last game game with a turnover margin of +4 or better playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons. since 1992. since 1992.
The average score was OKLAHOMA ST 36.8, The average score was CINCINNATI 32.4, The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 39.2, OPPONENT 23.1. OPPONENT 14.8. OPPONENT 17.3.
PLAY ON OKLAHOMA STATE PLAY ON CINCINNATI PLAY ON VIRGINIA TECH raTinG = **** raTinG = **** raTinG = **** www.StatFox.com 19 The Platinum Sheet
College Football Week 2: SEPTEMBER 8-10
SOUTH CAROLINA (-3) vs GEORGIA
• (351) S CAROLINA (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (352) GEORGIA (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 4:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD S CAROLINA +19.0 27.0 56 16 40-220 (5.5) 25-10-131 (5.2) 65-351 (5.4) 4-0 37 21 28-85 (3.0) 56-37-260 (4.6) 84-345 (4.1) 4-1 +1 GEORGIA -14.0 62.0 21 13 31-137 (4.4) 29-16-236 (8.1) 60-373 (6.2) 0-1 35 24 37-129 (3.5) 34-28-261 (7.7) 71-390 (5.5) 0-1 0
Game Breakdown: South Carolina and Georgia meet in a game that could determine the winner of the SEC East this year. South Carolina got a spark off the bench from QB Stephen Garcia who led the Gamecocks to a 56-37 win after outscoring East Carolina 42-13 in the second half. Georgia couldn’t keep up with Boise State in a 35-21 loss to open its season. The Bulldogs are 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) in the past nine meetings, but the Gamecocks won 17-6 last year behind 182 rushing yards and 2 TD from Marcus Lattimore.
• 13 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992. Stat F ox S CAROLINA 30 • Mark Richt is 15-25 ATS at home when playing with 6 or less days rest as coach of GEORGIA. F o r e c a st e r : GEORGIA 35 • Mark Richt is 22-33 ATS at home when playing on a Saturday as coach of GEORGIA.
BYU vs TEXAS (-6½)
• (359) BYU (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (360) TEXAS (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD BYU +1.0 37.0 14 20 31-91 (2.9) 38-24-225 (5.9) 69-316 (4.6) 0-1 13 13 29-64 (2.2) 28-15-144 (5.1) 57-208 (3.6) 2-0 +1 TEXAS +25.0 22.0 34 22 48-229 (4.8) 27-15-277 (10.3) 75-506 (6.7) 1-0 9 16 30-130 (4.3) 30-15-94 (3.1) 60-224 (3.7) 2-0 +1
Game Breakdown: After surviving a scare in its first road game as an independent, BYU now travels to Austin to face Texas. The Cougars trailed Ole Miss 13-0 early in the fourth quarter before rallying for 2 TD to win by a point. BYU held the Rebels to just 208 total yards and 13 first downs. The Longhorns only had a 13-9 lead on Rice midway through the third quarter before they finished strong with a 21-0 run. Texas amassed 506 yards of balanced offense (277 passing, 229 rushing) and held the Owls to a paltry 224 total yards.
• BYU is 6-0 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the L2 seasons. Stat F ox BYU 24 • Mack Brown is 63-51 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest as coach of TEXAS. F o r e c a st e r : TEXAS 17 • BYU is 7-0 UNDER as an underdog over the L2 seasons.
UTAH vs USC (-10½)
• (371) UTAH (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (372) USC (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:30 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD UTAH +17.0 -3.0 27 16 38-191 (5.0) 23-15-101 (4.4) 61-292 (4.8) 0-0 10 12 29-75 (2.6) 29-16-183 (6.3) 58-258 (4.4) 0-2 +2 USC +2.0 34.0 19 24 28-67 (2.4) 45-34-304 (6.8) 73-371 (5.1) 1-0 17 20 34-110 (3.2) 26-14-192 (7.4) 60-302 (5.0) 0-1 0
Game Breakdown: Two teams coming off lackluster victories meet for the first time as Pac-12 foes when Utah visits USC. These schools last faced each other on Christmas Day 2001 when the Utes won 10-6, outrushing the Trojans 222 to 1. Utah only gained 292 yards in a 27-10 win over 29.5-point underdog Montana State last week, while USC barely beat 24-point dog Minnesota by two points. The Trojans passing game was clicking though as WR Robert Woods who caught 17 Matt Barkley passes for 177 yards and two scores.
• Kyle Whittingham is 7-0 ATS away after a game where they committed no turnovers as coach of UTAH. Stat F ox UTAH 23 • USC is 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the L3 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : USC 25 • Kyle Whittingham is 11-3 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers as coach of UTAH.
NOTRE DAME (-4) vs MICHIGAN
• (375) NOTRE DAME (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (376) MICHIGAN (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 8:00 PM
Team Offense Team Defense PDif ss PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I PPG fd rushing Passing Total f-I TOD NOTRE DAME -3.0 44.0 20 27 29-117 (4.0) 49-31-391 (8.0) 78-508 (6.5) 2-3 23 20 42-126 (3.0) 30-18-128 (4.3) 72-254 (3.5) 0-0 -5 MICHIGAN +24.0 33.0 34 17 26-190 (7.3) 13-9-98 (7.5) 39-288 (7.4) 0-0 10 17 25-96 (3.8) 31-22-183 (5.9) 56-279 (5.0) 2-1 +3
Game Breakdown: Michigan will attempt to beat Notre Dame for the fifth time in six tries when the two schools clash on Saturday. Last year it was the Denard Robinson show as the Michigan QB racked up 502 total yards (258 rushing, 244 passing) and three touchdowns in the 28-24 win. While Michigan won a rain-shortened opener over Western Michigan 34-10, the Fighting Irish lost 23-20 at home to South Florida in a game that was delayed twice by the nasty weather. Tommy Rees will likely start at QB after outplaying Dayne Crist.
• MICHIGAN is 5-15 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons. Stat F ox NOTRE DAME 33 • NOTRE DAME is 9-2 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the L2 seasons. F o r e c a st e r : MICHIGAN 25 • MICHIGAN is 1-9 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the L3 seasons.
20 www.StatFox.com The Platinum Sheet
College Football Week 2: SEPT. 10
(311) C MICHIGAN (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (312) KENTUCKY (-13) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: KENTUCKY is 11-1 OVER in home games over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: KENTUCKY 28, C MICHIGAN 20
(313) SAN DIEGO ST (-10) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (314) ARMY (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: SAN DIEGO ST coach Rocky Long is 1-8 ATS after a win by 28 or more points. StatFox Forecaster: SAN DIEGO ST 36, ARMY 21
(315) TOLEDO (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (316) OHIO ST (-20) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: OHIO ST is 9-0 ATS in home games over the L2 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: OHIO ST 37, TOLEDO 18
(321) N ILLINOIS (-5.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (322) KANSAS (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: N ILLINOIS is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the L2 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: N ILLINOIS 46, KANSAS 18
(323) UTEP (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (324) SMU (nl) (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Mike Price is 11-25 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as coach of UTEP. StatFox Forecaster: SMU 27, UTEP 21
(327) TULSA (-15) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (328) TULANE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Bob Toledo is 9-23 ATS against conference opponents as coach of TULANE. StatFox Forecaster: TULSA 48, TULANE 29
(331) NEW MEXICO ST (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (332) MINNESOTA (-18.5) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: NEW MEXICO ST is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss by 14 or more points over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: MINNESOTA 32, NEW MEXICO ST 17
(333) HAWAII (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (334) WASHINGTON (-3) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: HAWAII is 9-2 ATS in games played on turf over the L2 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: HAWAII 30, WASHINGTON 23
(345) NC STATE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (346) WAKE FOREST (nl) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Jim Grobe is 13-23 ATS in September games as coach of WAKE FOREST. StatFox Forecaster: NC STATE 35, WAKE FOREST 18
www.StatFox.com 21 The Platinum Sheet
College Football Week 2: SEPT. 10
(347) PURDUE (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (348) RICE (-1.5) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: David Bailiff is 17-4 OVER after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game as coach of RICE. StatFox Forecaster: RICE 32, PURDUE 22
(349) SOUTHERN MISS (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (350) MARSHALL (nl) (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 3:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Larry Fedora is 1-9 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers as coach of SOUTHERN MISS. StatFox Forecaster: SOUTHERN MISS 26, MARSHALL 24
(353) TEMPLE (-13.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (354) AKRON (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 6:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: TEMPLE is 8-1 ATS away when playing on a Saturday over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: TEMPLE 34, AKRON 11
(355) FRESNO ST (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (356) NEBRASKA (-28) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Pat Hill is 18-3 OVER away in September games as coach of FRESNO ST. StatFox Forecaster: NEBRASKA 30, FRESNO ST 18
(357) VIRGINIA (-7) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (358) INDIANA (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Indiana is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games. StatFox Forecaster: VIRGINIA 32, INDIANA 26
(361) UAB (SU: 0-0, ATS: 0-0) at (362) FLORIDA (-21.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: The total has gone UNDER in 5 of UAB’s last 7 games. StatFox Forecaster: FLORIDA 32, UAB 18
(363) BALL ST (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (364) S FLORIDA (-21.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: S FLORIDA is 10-1 UNDER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: S FLORIDA 35, BALL ST 18
(365) NEW MEXICO (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) at (366) ARKANSAS (-35) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: Bob Petrino is 9-0 ATS at home after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as coach of ARKANSAS. StatFox Forecaster: ARKANSAS 58, NEW MEXICO 16
(367) UNLV (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) at (368) WASHINGTON ST (-14) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 5:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: UNLV is 2-11 ATS in road games over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: WASHINGTON ST 42, UNLV 17
22 www.StatFox.com The Platinum Sheet
w w w .St a t F o x . c o m
(369) CONNECTICUT (-1) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) at (370) VANDERBILT (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:30 PM
KEY GAME TREND: VANDERBILT is 1-8 ATS as a home underdog over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: CONNECTICUT 32, VANDERBILT 13
(373) BOSTON COLLEGE (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (374) UCF (-6.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 8:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: George O’Leary is 12-1 ATS at home after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game as coach of UCF. StatFox Forecaster: UCF 23, BOSTON COLLEGE 13
(377) SAN JOSE ST (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (378) UCLA (-21.5) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 10:00 PM
KEY GAME TREND: SAN JOSE ST is 3-16 ATS in games played on a grass field over the L3 seasons. StatFox Forecaster: UCLA 33, SAN JOSE ST 22
(379) FLA ATLANTIC (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (380) MICHIGAN ST (-33.5) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 12:00 PM Power Rating: MICH ST 42-15 (Edge: FLA ATLANTIC by 6.5) Outplay factor: MICH ST 33-9 (Edge: FLA ATLANTIC by 8.5) StatFox Forecaster: MICHIGAN ST 34, FLA ATLANTIC 14
(381) MEMPHIS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) at (382) ARKANSAS ST (-13) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM Power Rating: ARKASAS ST 31-8 (Edge: ARKASAS ST by 10) Outplay factor: ARKASAS ST 29-0 (Edge: ARKASAS ST by 16) StatFox Forecaster: ARKANSAS ST 42, MEMPHIS 21
(383) HOUSTON (-22) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (384) NORTH TEXAS (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM Power Rating: HOUSTON 35-20 (Edge: NORTH TEXAS by 7) Outplay factor: HOUSTON 26-22 (Edge: NORTH TEXAS by 18) StatFox Forecaster: HOUSTON 41, NORTH TEXAS 31
(385) NAVY (-12) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (386) W KENTUCKY (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM Power Rating: NAVY 35-18 (Edge: NAVY by 5) Outplay factor: NAVY 33-17 (Edge: NAVY by 4) StatFox Forecaster: NAVY 35, W KENTUCKY 19
(387) GEORGIA TECH (-10) (SU: 1-0, ATS: 1-0) at (388) MIDDLE TENN ST (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM Power Rating: GEORGIA TECH 42-31 (Edge: GEORGIA TECH by 1) Outplay factor: GEORGIA TECH 31-24 (Edge: MID TENN by 3) StatFox Forecaster: GEORGIA TECH 29, MIDDLE TENN ST 24
(389) LA LAFAYETTE (SU: 0-1, ATS: 1-0) at (390) KENT ST (-10) (SU: 0-1, ATS: 0-1) - Saturday, 9/10/2011 7:00 PM Power Rating: KENT STATE 27-17 (No Edge) Outplay factor: KENT STATE 26-9 (Edge: KENT STATE by 7) StatFox Forecaster: KENT ST 29, LA LAFAYETTE 22
www.StatFox.com 23 THE PLATINUM SHEET
SPORTSBOOK.COM BETTING TRENDS: SEPTEMBER 1-3
One of the hot resources utilized by handicappers is the public betting information o ered by a variety of sources. KEY: Leading the way is Sportsbook.com, which o ers up this data on both its .net and .com Web sites. Boasting massive sports betting customer databases, Sportsbook.com is able to present statistics that are accurately refl ective of public OL Opening Line FL Finishing Line sentiment, and hence useful to the handicapper studying them. These “Betting Trends” tell what percentage of bets is Score Final Game Score being placed on each side of a point spread, money line and total. Side % of bets on each side of spread This data can be used to profi t from. Most “sharps,” when given the option, choose to be on the side of the Total Top line = % of bets on Over bookmaker, or opposite that of the betting public. However, that side doesn’t always win, and some bettors believe W/L Winners and losers in the theory that there is “strength in numbers”—that group would rather follow the big money. By following these betting trends consistently, you’ll be able to form your own opinion. Here’s a look back at some of last week’s college football results so that you can see how the public fared. Be sure to check with Sportsbook.com, particularly in the hour before the start of games, to see the most updated percentages of this week’s upcoming games.
09/01/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 131 UNLV 55.5 56.5 17 26% 83% W 159 WESTERN MICHIGAN 60.5 58.5 10 26% 83% L 132 WISCONSIN -35 -34.5 51 74% L 17% 160 MICHIGAN -14.5 -14.5 34 74% W 17%
09/01/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 133 MISSISSIPPI STATE -27.5 -29.5 59 66% W 81% W 161 MINNESOTA 50.5 51.5 17 56% W 89% L 134 MEMPHIS 49 50 14 34% 19% 162 USC -21 -24 19 44% 11%
09/01/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 3:30 PM EEDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 135 WAKE FOREST 49.0 48.5 29 26% 13% 163 SOUTH FLORIDA 47 47 23 55% W 82% L 136 SYRACUSE -6 -6.5 36 74% W 87% L 164 NOTRE DAME -10.5 -10 20 45% 18%
09/01/2011 9:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 4:45 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 137 BOWLING GREEN 53.5 52.5 32 51% W 57% L 165 BYU -2.5 -2 14 58% L 83% L 138 IDAHO -8 -6 15 49% 43% 166 MISSISSIPPI 54.5 54.5 13 42% 17%
09/01/2011 7:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 5:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 139 NORTH TEXAS 54 53 16 38% 72% W 167 SAN JOSE STATE 53 53.5 3 12% 81% W 140 FLORIDA INTL -14 -14 41 62% W 28% 168 STANFORD -27 -30 57 88% W 19%
09/01/2011 9:15 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 6:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 141 KENTUCKY -19 -17 14 61% L 57% L 169 COLORADO STATE -4.5 -7 14 85% L 57% L 142 WESTERN KENTUCKY 51 48.5 3 39% 43% 170 NEW MEXICO 52.5 48 10 15% 43%
09/02/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 6:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 145 TCU -6.5 -3.5 48 74% L 31% 171 BUFFALO U 52 54.5 16 38% 77% L 146 BAYLOR 55 53 50 26% 69% L 172 PITTSBURGH -29.5 -30.5 35 62% L 23%
09/03/2011 12:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 7:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 147 NORTHWESTERN 47 44 24 53% W 66% L 173 SOUTH CAROLINA -20.5 -21 56 67% L 77% W 148 BOSTON COLLEGE -3 -5 17 47% 34% 174 EAST CAROLINA 61 59.5 37 33% 23%
09/03/2011 12:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 7:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 149 UTAH STATE 55.5 57 38 30% 69% W 175 FRESNO STATE 49 49 21 69% L 69% W 150 AUBURN -22 -24 42 70% L 31% 176 CALIFORNIA -10 -10 36 31% 31%
09/03/2011 12:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 151 AKRON 48 46.5 0 23% 84% L 179 RICE 56 54 9 20% 88% L 152 OHIO STATE -32.5 -31.5 42 77% W 16% 180 TEXAS -22 -24 34 80% W 12%
09/03/2011 12:10 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 153 MIAMI OHIO 47 49 6 25% 87% L 183 TULSA 63.5 63 14 8% 92% L 154 MISSOURI -16 -20 17 75% L 13% 184 OKLAHOMA -20.5 -25 47 92% W 8%
09/03/2011 12:20 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 155 KENT STATE 45.5 49 7 10% 93% W 187 BOISE STATE -3 -3 35 59% W 82% W 156 ALABAMA -36 -39 48 90% W 7% 188 GEORGIA 52 52 21 41% 18%
09/03/2011 3:30 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 09/03/2011 8:00 PM EDT OL FL Score Side W/L Total W/L 157 UCLA 61 59.5 34 38% 80% W 189 OREGON -2 -3.5 27 64% L 69% W 158 HOUSTON U -3.5 -1.5 38 62% W 20% 190 LSU 55 54.5 40 36% 31%
24 www.StatFox.com