Research Proposal

Assessing & building urban community resilience & capacity for adaptation to climate change: an examination of the effectiveness of Transition Towns

Colin J. Macgregor

Background The Transition Town (TT) concept originally began as a permaculture student project in Kinsale, Ireland, in 2005, where the co-founder Rob Hopkins was employed at the local college of further education (Connors and McDonald, 2010). Kinsale was where the first TT group was established but the TT movement formally began in Totnes, England, in May 2006 when that town was declared the first ‘official’ Transition Town. The TT movement is a response to the recognition of the need for a radically different way of life implied by the depletion of readily available oil supplies coupled with the need to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, widely regarded as being responsible for climate change (Scott-Cato and Hillier, 2010). According to the Transition Network’s website, TransitionNetwork.org, there are now over 1,130 registered TT initiatives in more than 43 countries (Transition Network, 2013), although at the latest count there were 476 official TTs (654 are ‘mulling over’ the decision to join the network). According to Rob Hopkins, the TT movement is the fastest growing environmental movement in the global north (Hopkins, 2008). At its heart the TT movement is a quiet revolt against globalization, continual economic growth, exponential consumerism and perhaps even neo-liberal politics, mainly because these directly or indirectly rely on and advocate for high energy inputs. Working in a non-confrontational manner (Barry and Quilley, 2008), TT communities are seeking to build local resilience (from the impending social upheaval implied by peak oil) and adaptive capacity so that they may be less dependent upon top-down economics. The TT movement is a ‘grass roots’ response to the problem and it is embracing bottom-up, local economies instead. There is also a strong sense of political and economic empowerment within the movement. TTs are not waiting for government to identify and implement responses to peak oil and climate change, instead TTs are taking charge of their own destinies to develop pragmatic re-localisation and sustainability strategies that suit their localities (Barry and Quilley, 2008). Local food production and consumption (e.g. farmers markets, allotments), renewable energy, capacity building (e.g. community re-skilling), use of local alternative currencies (e.g. the Totnes pound), etc. are all areas currently receiving attention by TTs. While the TT movement grew extremely rapidly globally it is in its country of origin, the United Kingdom (UK), where there has been the most rapid response. At the last count (2013) there were 209 official TTs in the UK. The other two countries that have enthusiastically embraced the TT movement is the United States (US) – 119 official TTs, and Australia – 45 official TTs (Transition Network, 2013). The UK also has most of the longest established TTs. TransitionNetwork.org does not provide data on TT’s date of registration, however each TT is allocated a sequential number upon registration, effectively indicating which are the longer established e.g. Totnes is No.1. Of the first 100 registrations, 77 are in the UK, 9 are in Australia, and 5 are in the US. It is also notable that 6 of the 8 TTs in New Zealand also have registration numbers below 100. This data indicates that after the UK, the TT movement was embraced more widely in Australasia even before the US, despite the relatively large number of TTs currently registered in the US. Social scientists have carried out a considerable amount of research within the adoption area, especially within the environmental context. For example, in Australia, considerable research has examined the adoption of sustainable land management practices within the landcare movement, and more recently within natural resource management. While the rural/agricultural context of landcare and NRM is very different to that of urban TTs, in a diffusion and adoption sense at least there are similarities. Both are concerned with long-term sustainability, both are dealing with the perceived threat/s to sustainability, both require strategic and cooperative responses, and ultimately both require widespread behaviour change from all stakeholders. According to Scott-Cato and Hillier (2010) there has been little monitoring of TT’s activities, and it is unclear about how much effective activity has taken place within each TT community. Given the increasingly significant role cities and towns will have in the 21st century, the rapid growth of TTs in the developed world, and the apparent potential the movement has to pull together disparate urban communities for a common cause, a thorough examination of TTs could offer valuable insights about adoption of sustainable living in highly urbanized contexts.

Research questions implied: Following extensive literature reviews and primary research on the adoption of sustainable land management practices (e.g. Macgregor and Fenton, 1999; Fenton et al., 2000; Haberkorn et al., 2001; Macgregor, 2001; Macgregor and Cary, 2002a; Macgregor and Cary, 2002b; Macgregor, 2003), Macgregor (2009) developed a generic framework for considering the drivers of change and adoption (Fig.1).

Figure 1: Drivers of change for strategic adaptive management in sustainable development (Macgregor, 2009)

Fig. 1 offers a basic research framework for examining the effectiveness of the TT movement. While the specific indicators implied by Fig. 1 will require adjustment to suit the TT context, the roles that community understanding, motivation and capacity have within an adaptive TT process (‘learning by doing’) are all crucial to the success of transition initiatives. Gaining insights of understanding, motivations and capacity are all valuable areas for research in TT communities but there are also more specific questions implied by the TT context as follows.

Shared beliefs According to Hopkins (2008) envisioning, which is central to ‘understanding’, is extremely important to each TT initiative. A particular feature of the TT envisioning strategy is to draw attention to the contrast between high-energy, globalized, monochrome, mono-functional ‘clone-towns’, with those implied by TTs, where their micro-scape is characterized by an “organic patchwork of social, economic, ecological, production and consumption land uses [that are] woven together [to form] diverse, pedestrian friendly, community task-scapes” (Barry and Quilley, 2008). To what extent does the TT envisioning process contribute to the acceptance and adoption of the TT philosophy? There are other implied questions here also; to what extent does a positive belief in ecological and social justice contribute to the successful diffusion of the TT movement? To what extent do the social upheavals implied by peak oil and climate change shape and influence envisioning? To what extent does anti- globalisation, anti-consumption and ‘small is inevitable’ (Hopkins, 2008) contribute to envisioning?

Desire to remain Desire to remain (sometimes generally referred to as ‘sense of place’) has been studied extensively in the social sciences. Many of the studies have considered its link and role in encouraging and supporting positive environmental attitudes and sustainability (e.g. Stedman 2002; Uzzell et al., 2002). Sense of place actually encompasses at least four variables. Place identity refers to one’s attitude to a place. Hummon (1992: 258) argued that this is “an important sign or locus of the self” implying that our sense of self is at least partly constructed by our attitude towards place. Sense of community is linked to the physical features of the built environment (Plas and Lewis, 1996) but as McMillan and Chavis (1986) argue, one might also anticipate receiving and providing resources from and to the community. Place attachment is a more emotional factor where the attachment to place provides a deeper meaning of experiencing close, local relationships with people (Fried, 2000). Finally, place dependence is goal-oriented (Stokols and Schumaker, 1981) e.g. how well the place provides for ones basic and higher needs and expectations. There are at least three questions that arise for TTs. To what extent do variables associated with sense of place (see ‘desire to remain’ in Fig. 1) support the TT movement? How is sense of place/community engendered in TTs? Is this, and how is this, being measured?

Social capital The TT movement relies heavily on both formal and informal diffusion processes to spread the word and gain support. Formal processes within TT communities involve use of ‘open space’ technologies, use of video presentations and discussion sessions to facilitate social learning and sharing of ideas. How effective are these processes in building social capital within TTs? Social movement analysts also emphasize the role of informal networks. What are the characteristics of informal networks within TTs, how is this being engendered in TT communities, and how is the effectiveness of networks being measured (if at all)? ‘Green’ initiatives are often criticized for merely ‘preaching to the converted’ – typically the middle-class, well-educated professionals of a community. TT communities should successfully reach out and engage well beyond this cohort. How effective are formal and informal diffusion processes being in reaching out to and successfully engaging with the ‘late adopter’ and ‘laggard’ cohorts? In short, how effective are the wider community engagement processes within the TT movement, and how well do these conform to ‘best practice’ community engagement? Finally, Hopkins (2008) strongly advocates for the ‘Stages of Change Model’ (DiClemente, 2003) to encourage behavior change in TT communities. To what extent has this approach been adopted by TT communities and what evidence is there that it is effective in encouraging active change?

Resilience According to Barry and Quilley (2008: 22), the TT movement is “first and foremost about enhancing personal and community resilience by changing individual and group social, ecological, and economic behavior and relationships in relation to a particular place.” Hopkins (2007) adopted Walker et al’s (2004) definition of resilience (2004): “Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedback.” In short, the aim of TTs is to build more resilient communities so that they may avoid major social and economic upheaval and respond to climate change and peak oil effectively. In this sense, resilience is an element of envisioning as well as adaptive capacity; it is also an important motivation for change. Resilience then, cuts across understanding, motivation and capacity (Fig. 1). How is community resilience being engendered in TT communities and how is it being measured? There is another very relevant aspect to resilience. ‘Burn-out’ may occur when leaders of a community group become over-burdened and over-worked. This was a common issue of concern within Landcare in Australia, so much so that the later NRM organizations sought to address the resilience of organization members much more seriously. What qualitative and quantitative resilience indicators are appropriate within the TT context (Barry and Quilley, 2008) and what analysis of resilience has taken place? The TT movement is advocating a shift from a consumption-led economy, where one can (ideally) obtain all one wants as quickly as possible, to one where restraint and moderation is encouraged – indeed, required. Such a shift implies significant behavior change. The rewards from a consumption-led economy are couched in the act of consuming (utility), but what are the rewards in an economy that has no ‘objects of consumption’? Without obvious utility, what are the implications for resilience? If the rewards are altruistic only, is this sufficient to sustain transition? Lastly, if we accept the premise that behavior is linked with values and attitudes (a notion that is strongly supported by many studies in social science and behavioural psychology), what is the relationship of these towards individualism, freedom, tolerance, pluralism, hyper- mobility, high-energy intensive economic and land-use and settlement patterns in terms of moving towards a low-impact, post-carbon, post-growth economic model (Barry and Quilley, 2008)? To what extent does freedom and individuation depend upon affluence and high- energy consumption?

Communications Communications play an important role in supporting capacity for change. Since TT communities have been established in more than 43 countries the TT movement can now be regarded as a global movement – at least in the ‘developed world’. The Internet appears to have been crucial in spreading the ideas of TTs within the UK. Leading advocates of TTs, such as Rob Hopkins and Richard Heinberg, rely heavily on communications via the Internet to reach out to new and existing TT communities and others. What role has the Internet made in the diffusion of TTs from the UK to other parts of the world? To what extent is the Internet supporting the development of formal social capital within the movement? How dependent is the TT movement upon the Internet and on other forms of communication?

TT communities’ relationship with local government and other community groups One of the key aims of all TT initiatives is to creatively engage and work with local government as a partner in the transition process (Barry and Quilley, 2008). Chatterton and Cutler (2008) suggest local government could be the TT movement’s greatest ally but alternatively it could also be one the biggest obstacles to a real transition. As Barry and Quilley (2008) suggest, an important question here is, how and in what ways do (and should) TTs engage with their local governments? To what extent (if any) do TT communities influence local governments through their co-operative activities? And, in a slightly broader context, how and in what ways do (and should) TTs engage with other local civil society groups e.g. Chamber of Commerce etc. Lastly, what other groups or organizations (local or otherwise) are TTs engaging and working with, and to what extent are these arrangements/partnerships facilitating the transition process?

The socio-ecological benefits of TTs Since TTs are seeking to lower ecological impacts while also enhancing the social and economic dimensions of family and community life, it seems pertinent to explore how well this objective is being achieved in TT communities. This question is also fundamental to the adaptive management process – to ensure effective learning about transition takes place. For example, do TTs reduce local ecological footprints? This question also implies an examination of ecological footprinting to determine the best approach for footprint analysis in the TT context. And, in the same way that the LiFE index (or similar) may assist Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) monitor and assess their sustainability performance, what indexes are available to assist TT communities monitor their transition performance, and if there are none, what might a self-evaluation tool or index for TTs look like and how might it operate?

What about the tropics? As indicated above, at present most of the success of the TT movement has been in the developed world – especially in the UK, Australasia and the United States. Is the TT model only applicable in a Euro-centric context or does it have genuine relevance to emerging economies – especially those located in the tropics? As Connors and McDonald (2010) explain, there may be a cultural blindness to the TT movement that has the potential to render the movement irrelevant to the mass support required for it to be truly inclusive and global. And as Connors and McDonald (2010) suggest, “there is an opportunity for those who already live with reduced access to energy to help strengthen the capacity of potential TT communities.” Currently there are just three ‘official’ transition initiatives in the tropics – Kuranda and Rockhampton in Qld, Australia and Sao Paulo in Brazil, although there are quite a few ‘mulling’ initiatives mainly in south-east Asia. What will it take for localities outside the geographic ‘norm’ to become ‘official’ TTs? What is likely to motivate such communities and what might potential or actual TTs in developing countries of the tropics offer the TT movement?

Research methodology A pilot project will explore how the TT movement is spreading, fostering and gaining public support both within the UK and overseas, especially Australia. The project will also examine TT’s community engagement procedures to determine the extent to which ‘best practice’ engagement is responsible for gaining support from multiple stakeholders and community cohorts. And, a preliminary investigation of the extent to which involvement with TT initiatives is shaping the values and attitudes of its members will also be carried out. The project has three basic goals as follows: 1. Determine a sample (12-15 in the UK, 12-15 in Australia) of Transition Towns (TTs) to act as case studies where the research may be most effectively conducted. 2. Determine how and in what ways the TT movement is being promoted in the UK, with a view to determining what are the most successful features of the promotion process, and which of these would be most effective in the Australian context. 3. Determine how and in what ways the TT movement is currently engaging with and winning the support of the public in the UK and Australia, with a view to determining what constitutes ‘best practice’ engagement, in the TT context. The following actions will be undertaken to achieve the project goals: • A review of published literature and TT websites will: (a) adapt and refine Macgregor’s (2009) framework of drivers of strategic change, so that it is suitable for application in urban community contexts; (b) identify the longest and most effective TTs in the UK and Australia; (c) identify how leading TT organisations, such as the Transition Network and the more prominent TTs are promoting their activities and initiatives; and, (d) identify features of best practice community engagement (theory and practice), as well as identify how leading TT organisations are engaging the public (if published). • Interviews with key personnel (informants) of TTs will explore: (a) global, national and local promotion activities and the methods by which these activities are undertaken; (b) identify specific public engagement activities and the methods by which local promotion activities are undertaken; and, (c) identify the most effective transition activities, to also consider the ways in which these are building participant understanding, motivation and capacity for change. • Responses to engagement questions during interviews will be recorded for transcription and analysis purposes. • Analysis will involve qualitative methods where each piece of information from individual case study TTs will be reviewed, compared, and contrasted with current best practice engagement theory and practice, and with other information from the other TTs. From this analysis commonalities and dissimilarities among categories of information will become evident so that a modified engagement theory, or an explanatory framework (suitable for TTs), may be inductively developed. • The findings from the above analysis will be considered in relation to current peer- reviewed literature on community engagement so that academic and practical implications can be determined. • Three articles based on the three goals will be written and submitted for publication to suitable peer-reviewed journals.

The timeframes for researching the three goals will be concurrent i.e. they will be conducted together. The review work (literature, websites) will be carried out in Jun to Aug 2014. The field work (data collection) in the UK will be carried out in Sept 2014. Field work in Australia will be carried out in Jan/Feb 2015. Analysis of collected data will take place between Feb and Jun 2015 with preparation and submission of articles to follow in July/Aug 2015.

Significance Given that Australia is one of the most urbanized nations on Earth, coupled to the fact that cities and towns will need to adapt and adjust in response to peek oil and climate change, it is essential that effective urban community responses, be identified and facilitated wherever possible. The early success of TTs in the UK may offer valuable and practical insights into effective urban climate change adaptation in Australia. From an academic perspective it is clear from an initial review of literature on TTs that there has only been a small amount of research on the TT movement has been carried out, mainly from a sociological perspective, and very little from a diffusion/adoption perspective. In short, the topic appears under-researched at this time. Finally, from a theoretical perspective, exploration of the effectiveness of the TT movement in encouraging and changing behaviour has considerable potential to inform, enhance, refine and strengthen theories of adoption.

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