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Part Ii Spatial Conditions in the Danube Space

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Part Ii Spatial Conditions in the Danube Space PART II SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE 47 48 CONTENT PART II: SPATIAL CONDITIONS IN THE DANUBE SPACE 47 4. DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURES AND DYNAMICS WITHIN THE DANUBE SPACE 53 4.1 Demographic Structure 53 (1) Population numbers cover a wide range 53 (2) Age structures tell different stories 54 (3) Ethnic homogeneity 59 4.2 Demographic Dynamics 60 (4) Divergent trends in East and West 60 (5) Substantial changes taking place with demographic determinants 61 (6) Population forecasts show no surprising results 65 (7) Significant changes in the patterns of international migration in the past decades 65 (8) Divergent patterns of international migration among the core countries 66 (9) Rural-urban flows dominate internal migration 68 (10) Cross-border migration is driven by economic reasons 69 (11) Brain drain and crowding out effects as major threats 70 5. SETTLEMENT STRUCTURES 73 5.1 Population Density 73 (12) Danube Space's periphery is more densely populated than the core area 73 5.2 Settlement Structure 74 (13) Major agglomerations 79 (14) Urban industrialisation in most of the CEECs 79 (15) Suburbanisation as a new trend in the CEECs 80 (16) Rural regions under stress 80 6. THE REGIONAL DYNAMICS OF TRANSITION 83 6.1 The Driving Forces of Regional Development 83 (17) Elements of economic transformation 83 (18) Three stages of transformation 86 (19) Adaptability on the regional scale 86 (20) Decisive determinants for the performance of "regions in transition" 87 (21) Recent trends in Foreign Direct Investment 88 (22) Where to the money goes 90 49 (23) Research and development determines future perspectives 90 (24) Regional R&D policies require networking 92 6.2 Structural Change in the Transition Process 93 (25) Trends in agriculture point out two groups of countries 94 (26) Land use patterns hint at divergent issues 97 (27) Land restitution, privatisation and investment 97 (28) Specific developments of the industrial sector 102 (29) Transformation of industry in the Core Countries 103 (30) High spatial concentration of heavy industry and mining 105 (31) Regional survey of main industries 107 (32) Services, the main driver of transformation 108 (33) Banking and insurance of utmost importance for further investment 109 (34) Tourism: considerable change with respect to markets and tourist flows 110 (35) Regional survey of tourism 112 7. REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND THEIR EVOLUTION 115 7.1 The Level of Economic Activity 115 (36) GDP differences between the Danube Space core countries still large 115 (37) Welfare gap is smaller than indicated by exchange rate based GDP 115 7.2 Regional Development Patterns 121 (38) Regional disparities expected to grow in transition countries 121 (39) Capital regions dominate economic development 125 7.3 Regional Disparities in the Core Countries 126 (40) Regional GDP data still not fully reliable 126 (41) Comparatively large but decreasing disparities in Austria 127 (42) Bulgaria: capital with the lowest growth potential of all Danube Space capitals 128 (43) A unique position for Prague 129 (44) Western Regions of Hungary most favoured 130 (45) Romania's large regions show little variation of growth 131 (46) Very strong west-east gradient in the Slovak Republic 133 (47) Quite small disparities on regional level III in Slovenia 133 8. LABOUR MARKETS AND UNEMPLOYMENT 135 (48) A number of data-related problems 135 (49) Major improvements concerning comparability: the Labour Force Survey 136 50 8.1 Employment 136 (50) Employment by sectors shows increasing shares of services 138 8.2 Unemployment 140 (51) Basic features of regional unemployment 143 (52) Youth unemployment ... 144 (53) ... as well as long term unemployment on the rise 144 9. THE ACCESSIBILITY OF THE REGIONS 149 9.1 Accessibility on the European Scale 149 (54) Potential impacts of the TINA-networks on accessibility 150 9.2 Road Networks 155 9.3 Railway Networks 156 10. ENVIRONMENTAL ENDOWMENTS OF THE REGIONS 159 10.1 Diversity of Environments 159 10.2 Natural Heritage Highlights - Biodiversity and Habitats 160 10.3 Water Resources 165 (55) Divergent patterns of sources, availability and dependencies 165 10.4 Legacies of the Socialist Era and the Risks During the Period of Economic Transition 170 (56) Air pollution 170 (57) Contaminated land 170 (58) Water pollution 171 (59) No adequate waste disposal infrastructure 171 (60) Nuclear reactor safety still doubtful 171 10.5 Risks during Economic Transition 172 (61) The transition increases pressure on certain natural endowments 172 (62) Regional survey on environmental risks 173 11. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS 175 11.1 Towards Sustainability 175 (63) Danube Space major trends (1985 to 1996) 175 (64) Energy supply 176 (65) Contribution of Nuclear Power 178 11.2 Main Characteristics of the Grids 183 (66) Electricity grid - network connections 183 (67) Gas grid - network connections 183 (68) The Transgas pipeline system 184 51 11.3 Improving a Location's Economic Advantage 184 (69) Electricity: high level of connections, further investment in supply quality 184 (70) Gas infrastructure: certain adverse primary effects, overall favourable secondary effects 185 (71) Closure of mines and oil fields: a significant social issue 185 11.4 Regional Impacts of Short and Mid-term Investments 186 (72) Electricity interconnections and regional impacts 186 (73) New gas infrastructure 188 52 TABLES Table 10 Population in the Danube Space 1996 53 Table 11 Urban and Rural Population in the Core Countries of the Danube Space 74 Table 12 Total Foreign Direct Investment in the Core Countries 1994-1997 89 Table 13 Foreign Direct Investment Stock 1994, 1997 89 Table 14 Structure of Production - Share of Sectoral Gross Value Added 1990, 1995 93 Table 15 Main Agricultural Issues by Countries 100 Table 16 Examples of Concentrations of Heavy Industry and Mining 106 Table 17 Main Tourist Indicators for the Core Countries 111 Table 18 Indicators of Standard of Living 116 Table 19 Typology of Regions under Transformation 122 Table 20 Economic Position of the Capitals 126 Table 21 Austria: Regional GDP per Capita in PPPs on NUTS II Level 128 Table 22 Bulgaria: Regional GDP per Capita (1993-1995) on the Level II - PPPs 128 Table 23 Czech Republic: Regional GDP per Capita on the Level II (1993, 1996) - in PPPs 129 Table 24 Czech Republic: Regional GDP for the new Regions 2000 on the Level III (1993, 1995) - in PPPs 130 Table 25 Hungary: Regional GDP per Capita on the Level II (1994, 1996) - in PPPs 131 Table 26 Romania: Regional GDPs on the Level II (1993-1996) - in PPPs 132 Table 27 Slovak Republic: Regional GDP on Level II (1996,1997) - in PPPs 133 Table 28 Slovenia: Regional GDP on Level III (1996) - in PPPs 134 Table 29 State and Development of the Private Sector in 1994 137 Table 30 Shares of the Main Economic Sectors 1990-1996 139 Table 31 Labour Force and Economic Activity Rates in '000's 139 Table 32 Labour Market Issues in the Core Countries 145 Table 33 Railway Transport in the Core Countries - Main Issues by Countries 157 Table 34 International Designated Areas and National Parks in Danube Space Core Countries 161 53 FIGURES Map 12 Age Structure 1995: 0-14 years 55 Map 13 Age Structure 1995: older than 60 years 57 Map 14 Population Change 1990-1996 63 Map 15 Population: Structure and Density 1996 75 Map 16 Spatial Distribution of Population 77 Map 17 Land Use by NUTS II Regions in the Core Countries 95 Map 18 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1996 117 Figure 1 GDP per Capita in PPPs in the Danube Space Core Countries 119 Figure 2 Development of Real GDP in the Danube Space (1989 = 100) 120 Map 19 Typology of Regions under Transition 123 Map 20 Unemployment Rate 141 Map 21 Accessibility of Agglomerations 151 Map 22 Accessibility of Population 153 Map 23 Protected Areas in the Danube Space 163 Map 24 The Main Rivers of the Danube Basin 167 Figure 3 Energy Production and Consumption in the Core Countries 1994 177 Map 25 Electricity Production in the Core Countries 179 Map 26 Nuclear Power Plants in the Danube Space 181 54 11. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE NETWORKS 11.1 Towards Sustainability The Socialist legacy of energy infrastructure in the Danube Space can be summarised as one of inefficient energy supply and use, where market economic principles were not the guiding factor in planning and policy decisions. The development and use of domestic resources and imports from Russia were core strategies, leading many Danube Space countries to depend on Russian imports. Finally, the electricity grids offered electricity supply of lower quality (in terms of frequency fluctuations, etc.) than the EU's UCPTE (Union for the Co-ordination of Production and Transmission of Electricity) grid, and transmission and distribution losses were higher. In the transition period following 1989, the energy supply and use situation has changed dramatically: energy demand has been falling; energy efficiency has been rising; use of domestic resources has been falling; the role of imports becoming more important; prices of fuels rising to become more cost reflective; and more international joint ventures have been created outside of the traditional Russia - Danube Space collaboration. The major trends are presented: (63) Danube Space major trends (1985 to 1996) ■ There was a common downward trend in both gross inland energy consumption and energy production over the period 1989 to 1995 which is closely linked to the economic downturn. ■ Final energy demand fell, leading to reduced use of coal and lignite, but with rise in use of natural gas in most Danube Space countries, controversy continues over role of nuclear power and how to address dependency. ■ Energy intensity has improved considerably, though it is still far below EU standards. ■ CO2 emissions were reduced by 16% between 1990 and 1995, but increased by 7% in 1996, reflecting the restructuring of the economy under pressure in the early 1990's, and renewed growth in the second half of the decade.
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