Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 ! Volume 9, Number 21 Page 1 of 9 Hoosier clout shifts The back to Washington Howey !""#$!"# $%&'()*&+,-./0,*12.&31)* By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis and MARK SCHOEFF JR. in Washington For five years running, HPR has presented its 50 Most Political Influential List of the Hoosier political scene. It’s one of our favorite editions because it establishes regular mileposts where readers can gauge the ebb and flow of power and Report clout. With input from HPR staff and readers, it is a consen- sus, though not scientific. It’s meant to ignite discussion, The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink debate, and, perhaps, even a bit of rancor. Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is President George W. Bush's performance over the next an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the few weeks and months is generating an unusual perspective political process in . this year. He appears to be at a precipice at this writing, Brian A. Howey, publisher preparing for a war that the world and American public are Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer yet to be convinced needs to be fought. A war with Iraq, a Jack E. Howey, editor number of Indiana political figures have told us, will proba- bly result in a retaliatory domestic terror attack, possibly at The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 or beyond the scale of Sept. 11. These two elements can PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 have a major impact on the economy and public opinion. There are many Hoosier figures whose political [email protected] www.howeypolitics.com futures could hang in the balance of either a resounding Bush victory over the next few months, or a precipitous Washington office: 202-775-3242; plummet in power if his gambles fall flat. Mitch Daniels, Business Office: 317-254-0535. Chris Chocola, , and other gubernatorial con- Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or tenders that emerge for 2004 could be impacted. fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily This year, because of war and the economy, the height Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. of power shifts back to Washington, after we astutely identi- © 2003, The Howey Political Report. All rights fied the key Statehouse players in 2002 who, by the way, reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or played their roles as we predicted (see the 1999-2002 HPR reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- To 50 lists at www.howeypolitics.com). tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without Here now is the 2003 HPR 50 Most Influential: consent of the publisher. 1. U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar: Not only does Lugar return to the No. 1 position in Indiana, he is extremely influ- ential in the entire world. Back as chair of his cherished Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Lugar has targeted his “I owe folks there an answer and I believe I attentions to a post-war Iraq, and identifying nuclear and radiological weapons of mass destruction. He has indicated owe it to them in the next few months. (There an increased role in Africa, which has been reduced to a cat- are) no fixed deadlines but in common-sense astrophic state in the midst of an AIDS pandemic. Even without the chair, Lugar was critical in steering the Bush terms I can’t wait til summertime. ” administration toward a multi-lateral approach with the United Nations concerning Iraq. He was nominated for a - OMB Director Mitch Daniels, to the Christian Nobel Peace Prize, which appears to be in the offing for his Nunn-Lugar role. He unveiled the Lugar Doctrine, which Science Monitor, on running for Indiana governor Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 Page 2 of 9

NBC POLL HAS BUSH APPROVAL AT 54 PER- CENT: An NBC News poll released on Wednesday played President Bush’s approval rating at just 54 percent.

SIMPSON SAYS ‘I’M IN TO STAY’: Forget all the "exploratory committee" stuff. State Sen. Vi Simpson is running for governor. Bloomington's 18-year Democratic state senator made her ambitions and intentions perfectly clear mandates that the move the $2 trillion federal budget. But that Wednesday, declaring, "I'm against weapons of mass destruction federal budget may be a ticking time in it to stay.” During an wherever they are. While he seems at bomb for Daniels. It has gone slipped hourlong interview on odds with the White House on critical back into a deficit—thanks to terrorism WGCL-AM 1370's "Afternoon Edition" talk issues at times, President Bush can find and a sagging economy—on his watch. show, Simpson stated her no senator more loyal than he on roll call Now he must play miser as he tries to absolute intention to seek votes, siding with the chief executive 100 hold domestic non-entitlement spending to the Democratic nomination percent of the time. Al Hunt of the Wall a 4 percent increase for fiscal year 2004. and dismissed any notion Street Journal termed Lugar's first term as Daniels is incandescently bright, thinks on that she is actually playing chair of foreign relations the most enlight- his feet and has a razor-sharp wit. Usually, for a spot as lieutenant gov- ened since the days of the Marshall Plan he’s the smartest person in the room. His ernor. But when asked and the Truman Doctrine. We see Lugar Achilles Heal is that often he acts like it. whether she'd settle for a No. 2 spot on the ticket with as poised for an epic grand flourish to an No one doubts that he’s tough. But does Joe Andrew, she had a spir- already incredible career. he have enough softness to be effective in ited retort. "No, I would 2. OMB Director Mitch Daniels: the grip-and-grin phase of a gubernatorial not," she said. "In fact, I Whereas Lugar can command huge campaign? Can Mitch Daniels project would be more interested in changes across the world, we've seen no warmth? Those are the crucial questions making the offer to him." political figure who can change a state's for him in 2004. Simpson said she intends political environment more than what 3. U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh: Even to take on a potentially dam- aging event from her past Daniels has the capability of doing in though he bowed out of the 2004 guberna- head-on. That was the fail- Indiana later this spring. If he enters the torial race, Evan Bayh is the most intrigu- ure of an engineering busi- governor's race, and we fully expect him ing, if not the most influential, politician ness she co-created in the to, he dramatically alters the landscape in Indiana because he’s still developing. mid-1980s, a failure that here. Ditto if he doesn't. Daniels is the When he says he’s a centrist Democrat, he included federal tax liabili- man of the hour. That's not to say he's a seems to mean it. He has been generous ties she paid off. Simpson shoo-in for governor in 2004, but he toward the huge Bush tax plan, limiting said she has no doubt any Republican opponent will would enter as a significant front-runner his criticism to tweaking it. He has a plat- in both a GOP primary and the general form as the chairman of the Democratic Continued on page 3 election. Oh, by the way, he presides over Leadership Council to shape an agenda Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 that will appeal to moderates. If he uses fied of angering him. Garton is the most the DLC pulpit vigorously, he could put vindictive man in the legislature, as Sens. his mark on an array of domestic policies, Luke Kenley, Teresa Lubbers and Murray staking out the ground that is just to the Clark will attest. Garton says he's a left of Georgia Democratic Sen. Zell changed man and will be a more inclusive Miller. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, Bayh leader. We're skeptical. But what is clear also has begun to carve a niche for him- is he is a true powerhouse in the State- raise it, and "I'm going to self in foreign policy. Now that he’s been house. And one thing worth noting: when handle it the way I always named to the Senate Armed Services you look at Indiana at the bottom of many have and say I know more Committee, he has an enhanced opportu- lists, the one constant this past generation than anybody else the haz- nity to weigh in on U.S. policy toward has been a Republican Senate. ards of running a small Iraq. If he can combine his own foreign 6. House Speaker B. Patrick business." policy framework (rather than just adopt- Bauer: One of the most controversial fig- MOSBY DECLINES EVANS- ing Lugar positions and saying “me, too”) ures in the legislature, Bauer pulled off a VILLE MAYORAL RUN: with his domestic signatures (education, coup by winning the speakership when David Mosby, saying welfare reform, taxes) and his fundraising many observers felt that his years on the Democrats need to avoid a power, he can become an all-around polit- Ways and Means Committee would have costly and divisive primary, ical player. earned him enough enemies to prevent announced Wednesday that 4. State Sen. Larry Borst: This is him from doing so. Bauer had to fend off he will not run for mayor of the first of several "groupings" on the list attacks from his caucus and from the news Evansville (Herb Marynell, with this trio of legislative leaders coming media. Veteran South Bend Tribune Evansville Courier & Press). ahead of Gov. O'Bannon because true columnist Jack Colwell noted that the Mosby's decision leaves power has shifted to the legislature from a Indianapolis Star treats Osama bin Laden state Rep. Jonathan Weinzapfel as the only weak governor occupying a weak gover- with more respect. Bauer appears to be Democrat looking to unseat norship. Borst gets the top spot because making the rare shift from the financial Republican Mayor Russ because he's the most creative of the track in the legislature to leadership. Lloyd Jr. Weinzapfel entered bunch, having authored the historic June Former Speaker John Gregg noted, "Bauer the race Tuesday. 2002 tax restructuring proposal while out- has really grown and I'm sure he, Borst maneuvering Bauer and winning O'Ban- and Garton will come up with a plan." HARCOURT ELECTED GOP non's approval. We expect Borst to play a 7. Gov. Frank O'Bannon: In the VICE CHAIR: Jean Ann similar leading role in the 2003 biennial five years we've been doing this list, this Harcourt was elected vice budget. Borst is the master of legislative is the lowest a sitting governor has been. chair of the Indiana Republican Party. She has finance and was at the top of his game in We are consistently amazed that O'Ban- also told HPR that she will 2002. It will be fascinating to watch him non has such limited working relationship not be a candidate for lieu- make decisions this time around, many of not only with the legislature, but key peo- tenant governor in 2004. which will not be attractive to Repub- ple in his own party. Ways and Means licans. Chairman William Crawford was not in HILL NAMED DEPUTY 5. Senate President Pro Tempore the loop when Energize Indiana was WHIP: U.S. Rep. Baron Hill, Robert D. Garton: True power resides in forged. It is now being dismantled by D-Ind., has been appointed the Indiana Senate. That is the hurdle that House Democrats. Leaders in both parties chief deputy whip for the has to pass muster in order for anything to say O'Bannon paid them scant attention 108th U.S. Congress become law. Garton pretty much vetoed throughout most of the tax restructuring in (Columbus Republic). Hill will join six other Democrat the first two Borst tax restructuring plans 2002. In an interview with HPR after the chief deputy whips appoint- in March of 2002. It was his decision in special session ended, O'Bannon called ed by House Minority Whip May and June to let the process go for- himself a "facilitator" governor. He still Steny Hoyer, D-Md. The ward after revenues came in substantially matters, because he can command the position is the third tier of under target. Garton is at his pinnacle of bully pulpit, sign and veto bills, but his House Democratic leader- power, and is perhaps the most feared actions in the last couple of years remind ship, below Minority Leader man in the Statehouse. Public servants in us of when an embattled President Clinton Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and the Senate and governor's office are petri- had to remind the press that the presiden- continued on page 4 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 Page 4 of 9

cy was "still relevant" in 1995. four years later. Having said all that, a 8. GOP Chairman Jim Kittle: mayor is only as powerful as the latest He’s the Hoosier steed shooting out of a police scandal. hornet-infested starting gate. Kittle took 11. State Sen. Vi Simpson: She over the Indiana Republican Party a year has risen to the top of the tiny Senate ago, raised $6 million in nine months, Democratic caucus and made it relevant. Hoyer. Hill said he was came within an eyelash of winning the The walk-out she led two years ago shift- appointed to represent mod- erate voices which he feels Indiana House, helped win all the ed the dynamic on the last biennial bud- are widespread in southern statewides, and picked up a Congressional get. She was one of the original lone voic- Indiana. “I hope to bring seat. The sleeping GOP giant has awak- es calling for the need for tax restructur- Indiana values to the leader- ened under Kittle and now his aim is to ing before it became vogue. While ship of the Democratic cau- retake the governor's office. Kittle rises Republicans won't be able to resist label- cus,” he said. into the top 10 because his performance ing her a liberal, she believes she can back and money-raising abilities are critical up her fiscal prudence over the past PRALL ENTERS BLOOM- factors in the GOP luring Daniels to come decade. This session, she is attempting to INGTON MAYORAL RACE: Bloomington accountant back and run. Without Kittle setting the drive the most profound health care and taxpayer activist Fred table, there would be little prospect of reforms in recent memory. If she can Prall didn't dawdle on enter- Daniels running. demonstrate fund-raising abilities early ing the 2003 mayor's race 9. U.S. Rep. : He has and hone a sharp message that resonates (Bloomington Herald- had a green light from House Republican with Democrats and independents, Times). He filed to be a can- leadership since his 2000 campaign. Now Simpson will become not only the first didate in the Republican pri- he’s working his way up the ladder as major party gubernatorial candidate in mary first thing Wednesday deputy majority whip. Pence is the most Indiana history, but one with a shot at the morning, the opening day of election filing. Prall is an media-savvy House member in the nomination. avowed conservative who is Indiana delegation. A former radio talk 12. Joe Andrew: He has risen to making his first run for show host, he’s smart and articulate and the top of not only Indiana Democrats, but elected office. He owns the knows better than anyone else how to get nationally. Now he comes home to run for Prall & Co. accounting firm, his message out. He is conservative but governor. He's expected to have a signifi- with 10 employees at offices has learned since 1990 how to avoid scar- cant national fund-raising base. He's pop- in Bloomington and New ing people with his right-wing stances. ular with the rank and file and labor. A Castle. Pence is on his way to becoming a force Princeton graduate, like Daniels, both PENCE ADDRESSES among the House conservative faction, share an acidly sharp wit, great sense of NATIONAL LIFE RALLY: putting his capital gains tax cut plan on humor, excellent speaking skills, and U.S. Rep. Mike Pence the table to counter Bush’s proposal. But unbounding energy. Should he and addressed thousands of on foreign policy, he’s lock step with Daniels end up squaring off in 2004, it pro-life activists gathered at Bush, calling war with Iraq inevitable. If could be one of the most entertaining and the National March for Life Iraq goes bad, however, Pence may be intellectually stimulating showdowns in in Washing-ton on vulnerable as a hawk who flew too close Hoosier history, perhaps the glibbest gov- Wednesday. The activists to the sun. ernor's race in America. descended upon 10. Indianapolis Mayor Bart 13. U.S. Rep. : Buyer Washington, DC from around the nation for the Peterson: The mayor of the state's largest proved to everyone during the last elec- annual protest against the city is up for his first re-election and tion that he’s a formidable politician. He 1973 Supreme Court deci- every indication is that he will win in pounded former U.S. Rep. Brian Kerns sion, Roe v. Wade. "I am commanding fashion. That makes into the ground in an incumbent v. incum- mostly here today, as a Peterson a real player statewide. If the bent race that some thought would be a father and as an American, Democrats lose the governor's office in barnburner. Now he has one of the most to say thank you, from the 2004, Peterson may be the most com- Republican-leaning districts in the nation bottom of my heart for the manding Democrat in a post-O'Bannon all to himself. He knows how to raise work which you have accomplished in the cause era (other than Bayh) and in the best posi- money and how to handle the grind of a tion to try to reclaim the governor's office tough campaign. Although no one would continued on page 5 Page 5 of 9 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 accuse him of being eloquent, he works favorite son to run for governor. He's seen hard and knows how to put himself at a his party's heirs pass on the state's top political advantage on hot issues to gain political prize. Manous must also contend the most advantage, even in hostile terri- with the notion that the Democratic tory. In the old 5th CD, he even won a dynasty is running on fumes and is ready majority of union households in his 2000 to be retired. In the face of this, he staved of life. Because of all of race. The pugnacious Buyer could be in a off a GOP takeover of the Indiana House you, and the millions of position down the road to run for a Senate despite a national trend and three presi- Americans you represent, nomination. dential visits last fall. But that may pale in abortion is in steep decline 14. Ambassador James Morris: the face of challenges he faces in the next in America today. Abortion is less available, less legal, Successfully nominated by President Bush two years. We think Manous crept out into and less morally acceptable to serve as United States ambassador to dangerous territory when he tried to hand- than at any time since 1973. the United Nations Agencies on Food and pick the 2004 gubernatorial nominee You alone have exposed the Agriculture Organizations in Rome, instead of letting it play out in the early empty promises of the Left, Morris could end up playing a huge role stages. who offer choice but deliver in a post-war Iraq as well as on the deci- 17. Ways and Means Chairman only heartache and disap- mated African continent. Morris is a for- William Crawford: The Indianapolis pointment and a national mer Indiana University trustee and CEO Democrat may have one of the toughest conscience seared by pain," said Pence. Pence called of the Indianapolis Water Company who jobs in the legislature: Getting a budget on Congress to enact adop- also has an impressive resume as a passed out of the House and then recon- tion reform, speed founder of the Indiana Sports Corporation, ciled. He could also play a key role in any resources to crisis pregnan- Youthlinks Indiana and the Indianapolis deal to keep the Colts in the Circle City. cy centers, and bring an Campaign for Healthy Babies (at a time 18. Marty Morris: Lugar may be end to Partial Birth when the city led the nation in infant mor- the new chairman of the Senate Foreign Abortion. Pence also called tality). Now he works to try and assure at Relations Committee, but it’s a safe bet on President Bush to least one meal a day for people who need that his personal office chief of staff will appoint principled pro-life judges. it the most. continue to be the second-most powerful 15. Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan: person in Lugardom. Morris will make TOBACCO SETTLEMENT Obviously he falls because his political sure that Lugar remains as prominent on PART OF BUDGET IN career is winding down. Kernan has been the Indiana political stage as he will be on TROUBLE: The central one of the moat respectable, enjoyable the world policy stage. When Morris tells piece of legislation in the and perplexing figures on the Hoosier you something, you can count on it. governor's economic-devel- political scene. He might have had it all, 19. Kevin Brinegar: Here’s our opment plan won't leave the though he didn't want it. He commands next grouping: Key Statehouse lobbyists. House Public Health resilient respect throughout the Indiana We lead off with the Indiana Chamber’s Committee unscathed, Chairman Charlie Brown political establishment, yet a number of Brinegar because he appears to have the said yesterday (Lesley key Democratic political operatives have ear of Borst and Kernan, making him a Stedman, Louisville Courier- been telling HPR that his 2004 gubernato- player in both political parties, much to Journal). House Bill 1002, rial campaign wasn't doing the things it the chagrin of some Democrats who which trades 40 percent of needed to do to become truly competitive. believe the party has become too pro-busi- the state's future tobacco- His name ID, even in his home media ness at the expense of its natural con- settlement payments for a market of South Bend, was low for a stituencies. His role in forming the smaller upfront sum, will three-term mayor and two term LG. Alliance for Indiana’s future was a land- need changes to gain sup- port from committee mem- 16. Democratic Chairman Peter mark effort that helped create the atmos- bers, he said after three Manous: This is the guy on the hot spot. phere for the passage of HB1001ss. He hours of testimony on the Manous follows two popular and highly- aggravated House Democrats for commit- proposal. ''One hundred successful chairmen in Andrew and Robin ting resources against several incumbents percent of that bill is not Winston. He now faces an invigorated who voted for tax restructuring, although doable,'' said Brown, D- Indiana Republican Party that is raising he said the Chamber backed more money again and will lure home its Democrats than in any other cycle and continued on page 6 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 Page 6 of 9

refused to engage in a number of other that his independent nature remains in races. Brinegar faces a critical session tact. He wasn’t afraid to battle the when there will be an urge to roll back Indianapolis behemoth. He’ll continue to some of the gains of business in 2002. keep things interesting in Hoosier politics. 20. Pat Kiely: The Indiana 24. Ambassador : Manufacturing Association’s top guy is an Indiana’s former Republican senator was a Gary. Instead, the commit- extremely influential proponent of a pro- leading candidate to be President Bush’s tee will consider changes manufacturing climate, often working in secretary of defense in late 2000 before that would attempt to guar- tandem with Borst, though he doesn’t Donald Rumsfeld was selected. During a antee continued funding for have as much influence with House trip to Washington in October, he seemed the health-related programs Democrats. Kiely could have become a to have much more fun discussing a possi- now paid for with tobacco- credible gubernatorial candidate if he ble gubernatorial run in Indiana than he settlement dollars. Those wanted it. did parsing U.S.-German tension. Now include Hoosier Rx, a pre- scription drug program for 21. Dan Clark: If any sector of that France has come out stridently seniors; CHIPS, a health public policy is under the gun, it’s educa- against military intervention in Iraq, the insurance program for poor tion, which is looking at a flat-lined bud- similar German position may harden. children; and the state's get in a time of tougher standards and Coats’ work in Berlin is likely to get anti-smoking campaign. mandates. Clark will be pushing one of tougher rather than easier as we get closer the ISTA’s toughest tacks this year. Clark to a confrontation with Saddam. It’s not BENJAMIN PLEADS played a huge role in the Alliance last clear that there’s much he can do to repair GUILTY: Former Lake year, and on the final day of the special the government-to-government U.S.- County Auditor Peter session it was the ISTA signing off on the German relationship. It may be beyond Benjamin has pleaded guilty Borst deal that seemed to turn the tide in his pay grade, making a return to Indiana to racketeering and money laundering charges as part the House. As a trio, Clark, Brinegar and seem even more inviting. of a federal plea agreement Kiely maintain a strong command of their 25. House Majority Leader Russ accepted Wednesday (Post- organization’s issues and the respect Stilwell: He’s following in the footsteps Tribune). U.S. District Judge (and/or fear) of legislators who get in the of his mentor, former Speaker Michael K. Allen Sharp accepted the way. All three have big PAC bucks at Phillips and becomes a major power in the agreement, which also their disposal. House and an advocate for labor. He obvi- includes the dismissal of 22. U.S. Rep. : ously has the confidence of Speaker seven other charges in the Carson is another House member who Bauer. nine-count indictment. The knows her base and how to turn it out. In 26. Ken Zeller: The AFL-CIO will dismissed charges include defeating Brose McVey, she prevailed in have a major say in Democratic guberna- counts of mail fraud, bank fraud and witness tamper- what will probably be the tightest race for torial politics. His organization’s tangle ing, according to court doc- the rest of her career. She’s not afraid to with U.S. Rep. Baron Hill might be one uments. Benjamin, 55, is be liberal, but can also be quietly conserv- reason the Congressman chose to keep his facing a total maximum sen- ative in her own way. While most pundits district. Labor has also been vociferously tence of 40 years in prison were breathlessly giving Bush a mandate urging the Democratic Party to turn into — a 20-year maximum sen- after the 2002 election, Carson’s win was something more than Conservative Lite tence for each count to evidence that most voters probably still and these opinions will weigh in signifi- which he pleaded. prefer to have some creative tension in cantly as the next gubernatorial nominee government. The president is not a jugger- is selected and the party seeks its soul. DANIELS WANTS 4 PER- naut of biblical proportion. 27. Fort Wayne Mayor Graham CENT SPENDING CAP: President George W. Bush 23. U.S. Rep. : He has Richard: Another cluster, that of incum- will propose slowing the to find something other than scandal bent mayors who are not assured of a rate of growth in federal investigations to occupy his time now that smooth re-election in 2003. Both Richard spending next fiscal year to he’s no longer chairman of the House and Evansville Mayor Russell Lloyd will about 4 percent, less than Government Reform Committee. In the attract big bucks and will keep a huge half the increase anticipated recent Lilly controversy over limits on presence in the state’s second and third for this year, White House vaccination lawsuits, Burton demonstrated largest media markets. Richard will likely Page 7 of 9 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 be in a rematch with Republican Linda sion him returning home as president of Buskirk, winning by less than a half per- Indiana University. He would certainly be cent in 1999. Republicans believe demo- a tremendous role model for IU students. graphics and newly annexed areas will 31. State Sen. Murray Clark: benefit them. The Fort Wayne Demo- One more cluster, this time of what might cratic organization seems vulnerable after be called the “third tier” Republican Rep. Win Moses’ near defeat last year. gubernatorial contenders. Clark heads But crime is down and Richard is getting this grouping for several reasons. He has budget director Mitch good marks on economic issues. raised $467,000. He’s got the Senate plat- Daniels said (Bloomberg 28. Evansville Mayor Russell form, has shown some boldness in his News Service). Bush will pro- Lloyd Jr.: The first-term Republican is willingness to challenge Garton’s leader- pose that Congress hold seeking re-election in a city that hasn’t ship without losing face, and he was on spending increases outside spurned an incumbent mayor in 50 years. the 2000 ticket. He’s liked and admired of entitlement programs He’s got a number of brick and mortar in GOP circles and has some significant such as Social Security and Medicare to just over $30 bil- projects coming to fruition this year and support from big money names despite lion when he submits his fis- has lured a minor league baseball team to the Daniels anvil that hangs over him. He cal year 2004 budget request the city. Lloyd is expected to face a also translates well to retail politics. to Congress next month, fierce challenge from State Rep. Jonathon There are scenarios where Clark emerges Daniels said in a conference Weinzapfel. as a real contender if Daniels takes an call with reporters. A 4 per- 29. U.S. Rep. : No unexpected pass. cent increase in spending one is a better politician in the Indiana 32. David McIntosh: OK, go next year would compare delegation. (And we say that with great ahead and laugh. But remember, this is a with a 9 percent increase admiration.) This guy knows how to guy who has $10 million worth of name expected this fiscal year, he count votes -- whether it’s on an issue ID and would likely lead any current poll said. Congress hasn't fin- ished setting spending levels before the House or in a primary contest of GOP gubernatorial contenders. But for this year. Bush will pre- against former Fort Wayne Mayor Paul having said that, McIntosh has got huge sent his budget plan for next Helmke. Souder took what was supposed problems. His December announcement year on Feb. 3. Daniels said to be a tight race and turned it into a ceremony was flat and lacked supporters. a 4 percent increase is in line route, marshalling Washington support He is still suffering from his lackadaisical with projected increases in from conservative interest groups and the 2000 challenge to Gov. O’Bannon. He family incomes next year. White House as well as help from fervent angered Republican Central Committee Bush will oppose efforts in grass-roots advocates in the district. It’s members in the 2002 convention over his Congress to increase the hard to label the earnest Souder quirky tax plank while Republicans in the legis- budget and fight to keep anymore. When you win as convincingly lature were voting for tax increases. It government spending from increasing more than that of as he did, it’s called knowing what you seems there is a sharp divide between the ``typical American fami- believe and understanding your base. He McIntosh’s first six years in public life, ly,'' he said. has given himself some breathing room and the last four. on his term-limit pledge. With the strong 33. Eric Miller: Go ahead and ROVE SAYS BUSH WILL Republican tilt of his new district, he’ll laugh some more, but then recall the TARGET CLONING, PARTIAL be around as long as he would like. name “John R. Price,” who came within BIRTH ABORTIONS: 30. Lee Hamilton: In retirement, an eyelash of winning the 1998 U.S. White House senior adviser this foreign policy sage is in great Senate primary. Miller has out-raised Karl Rove, outlining plans demand as a pundit and analyst. He is Clark, is riding a taxation-on-churches that would have sounded effectively using his base as director of issue that will stoke his his base, and improbable just three months ago, said yesterday the Woodrow Wilson Center in could benefit should the Roe v. Wade that bans on late-term abor- Washington to put his ideas into the poli- abortion issue explode into the political tions and human cloning are cy milieu. As vice chairman of the Sept. forefront. Many Republicans are getting high on President Bush's 11 commission, he’ll have ample oppor- frequent Doc Bowen letters pushing his agenda and should be tunity to help shape homeland security candidacy. In the “no Mitch” scenario, achievable in the new and intelligence policy. We could envi- it’s easy to see Miller playing well to that Congress (Mike Allen,

continued on page 8 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003 Page 8 of 9 32 percent base that Price got in 1998 and commands the top political organization in these are people who tend to turn out in Southwestern Indiana, and coasted to his primary elections. Here’s the caveat in easiest victory last year. Yet Hostettler Nos. 30 through 32: If Daniels gets in, this will always seem vulnerable at the onset tier stands the best chance of losing its rel- of any election cycle because his district evancy. If Mitch doesn’t, one of these can- has a Democratic bent. Hostettler is one of Washington Post). Rove, didates will likely emerge as a true con- the most iconoclastic members of the during a rare appearance before reporters, said the tender. House, frequently voting in tiny minorities two measures are part of 34. House Minority Leader Brian on odd issues. "the immediate tasks at Bosma: He’s the top Republican in the 40. Michael Gerson: David Frum hand." He stopped short of House who will articulate a pro-business may take credit for the phrase “axis of promising a White House position on the biennial budget, but with evil,” but it was Gerson, a former aide to push to overturn the 1973 little impact. Why is he this high on the Sen. Coats, who edited from “axis of Roe v. Wade decision, list? How about this: Speaker in waiting. hatred” to make it more poetic. As chief which determined that a 35. Supt. Suellen Reed: She’s a speechwriter for Bush, Gerson is the woman's constitutional pri- voice on the education debate, though she wordsmith at the nexus of policy and vacy rights entitled her to is aggravating many legislators by calling communication with historic access to No. get an abortion in the first trimester of her pregnancy. for a 3 percent education increase when 43. The way most of us know Bush - as in But he said he would not many think a flat-lined budget there is the his National Cathedral speech on Sept. 14, make "prognostications best scenario. She also could face a realis- 2002 - is through Gerson’s words. about what might be years tic challenge next year at the GOP con- 41. U.S. Rep. : in the future." vention, possibly from Carol D’Amico. Perhaps the state’s most liberal officehold- 36. U.S. Rep. Baron Hill: Hill is er, he falls in the list this year as the MILLER, CLARK LEAD GOP exhibit B in the non-Bush mandate argu- Hoosier steel industry appears to be con- PACK IN MONEY: ment. In a race that many thought should solidating and stabilizing. Conservative activist Eric be closer against an established GOP can- 42. U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola: The Miller and State Sen. Murray didate with deep district roots, Hill newest Hoosier Member who will be Clark are winning the early fund-raising scramble in the demonstrated his fiercely competitive under the gun in 2004 in what could be a race for the Republican nature and tenacious approach to cam- repeat donnybrook of last year. nomination for governor in paigning. Republicans may have missed 43. Bob Grand: The money and 2004 (Indianapolis Star). their chance in 2000 and 2002 to beat strategic force behind Rokita; and a key While Miller so far has the him. He’ll just get stronger in the district. confidant of Kittle. most cash of the five He’s smart, hardworking, and tough. He 44. Mike Fichter/Betty Cockrum: Republicans actively seek- stood up against union pressure to vote in With the Bush administration taking a ing the party's nomination, favor of trade agreements, and then won number of pro-life steps and U.S. Clark outraised all of them re-election handily without labor help. It Supreme Court nominations potentially in 2002. The latest cam- may have kept him from running for gov- placing the Roe vs. Wade decision up for paign finance reports show that at the end of 2002, ernor, but he can easily become ensconced review, Fichter, the executive director of Miller had about $478,000 in in his House seat. If his staff would con- Indiana Right to Life, and Cockrum, the his campaign fund, while tinue to dial down its defensiveness, Hill former Indiana budget director who now Clark had about $467,000. might be set for some smooth sailing. heads up Planned Parenthood, will be in David McIntosh, the 2002 37. Secretary of State Todd the spotlight articulating opposing views nominee, reported about Rokita: A true rising star in the GOP, as the issue shifts to the states. $109,000 in cash on hand, coming off two impressive wins in 2002 45. Allen County GOP Chairman while State Sen. Luke at the convention and in the general elec- Steve Shine: Consistently the prototypical Kenley had $105,000. tion while being out-spent. GOP county chair up in Allen County. 38. Attorney General Steve 46. St. Joe County Democratic HINKLE ENTERS INDI- ANAPOLIS MAYORAL Carter: He is consistently compiling a Chairman Butch Morgan: Yes, his 2nd RACE: State Rep. Phil reputation as a consumer watchdog. A CD candidate, , lost, Hinkle joined a Republican possible LG selection in 2004. but her campaign would have been better field that includes Marion 39. U.S. Rep. : He served if he had been more involved. County Treasurer Greg Page 9 of 9 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2003

Morgan, however, pulled out the St. : Retired after an Joseph County sheriff and prosecutor illustrious career in the U.S. House, he from the jaws of defeat. will serve on the Sept. 11 commission. 47. Lake County Sheriff Roy Myles Brand: Former IU president Dominguez: As Hispanics are now the moves over to head the NCAA and will largest minority group in the United States push for new academic reforms. and Indiana’s Hispanic population is at Judy O'Bannon: Indiana’s beloved Jordan and businessman Bob 3.5 percent and growing rapidly, First Lady. Parker for the 2003 Dominguez becomes that group’s most State Sen. Luke Kenley: A GOP Indianapolis mayoral race conspicuous officeholder. gubernatorial candidate. (Matthew Tully, Indianapolis 48. Marion County Democratic Tom New/David Johnson: Key Star). The three want to take on a well-financed sitting mayor. Chairman Ed Treacy: Presides over the advisors to Gov. O’Bannon. "Money isn't everything," said Marion County Democratic Party, which : Executive Director Hinkle, who promised a "door- is growing more powerful each year. of the Indiana GOP. to-door" campaign while 49. Tim Goeglein: At Karl Rove’s Tim Henderson: Dem’s dollar guy. acknowledging he has virtually right hand, Goeglein, another former State Rep. Jeff Espich: Should the no money. Coats aide, helps Bush stoke up, and mol- GOP take control of the House in 2004 ... lify, his crucial conservative base. Treasurer Tim Berry: Possible DECKER, ROSWARSKI ENTER 50. Jack Colwell: This is the pub- 2004 Republican LG candidate. LAFAYETTE MAYORAL RACE: lisher’s prerogative. Colwell has been Joe Loftus: A super lobbyist at Democratic councilman Tony Indiana’s top political writer and colum- Barnes & Thornburg who can do magic in Roswarski, 42, entered the Lafayette mayor's race on nist for four decades at the South Bend a budget bill with Sen. Borst. Saturday, promising to involve Tribune. He’s retiring, though will still State Sen. Becky Skillman: Now citizens in a hands-on adminis- write his weekly Sunday column. Colwell second in the Senate Republican caucus, tration. If successful in the May is part of a vanishing breed of journalist she is another potential LG contender. primary, he could face two- who writes about politics with knowledge, State Sen. David Ford: An term Republican City Clerk accuracy, fairness, and passion. announced Republican LG candidate Lisa Decker, 38, in the * * * Steve Ferguson: An IU trustee November general election Honorable Mention with the ear of Sen. Simpson. (Joe Thomas, Lafayette Journal (in no particular order) Jim Moseley: Second at USDA. & Courier). She officially threw her hat in the ring Friday by Robin Winston: Former Demo- State Rep. Peggy Welch: Young forming her own campaign cratic chairman and key advisor to Gov. legislator who knows how to move bills. committee. " O’Bannon and Chairman Peter Manous. Ron Gifford: One of the most Steve Chancellor: The CEO of astute Statehouse analysts. Black Beauty Coal gave $244,000 to GOP Karl Berron: Top Realtor lobbyist. candidates in 2000 and was a top giver to John Hammond III: One of the the Bush presidential campaign. most influential lobbyists. The Tom Sugar: Sen. Bayh’s chief of Phil Bainbridge: He has the ear of staff and a key gatekeeper if that call from both Bauer and Borst. Howey the 2004 presidential nominee comes. Dave Gogol: Key Washington lob- Political Marion County Sheriff Frank byist as Indiana pushes life science sector. Anderson: A 2004 LG candidate? Jim Purucker: Big clout on gam- Report Al Hubbard: The former GOP ing issues. chair brought “The Blade” to Bush. Shaw Friedman: Possibly a future See HPR’s Deborah Daniels: Deputy Attorney Democratic state chairman. 1999-2002 General of the United States. Jay Potesta: Sheetmetals boss and 50 Most Influential Lists State Rep. Scott Pelath: Tight key labor opinion shaper. at with Bauer, heads House Public Policy, Dan Parker: Sen. Bayh’s guy on www.howeypolitics.com and a possible challenger to Chocola. the Democratic State Committee. Jean Ann Harcourt: New vice State Rep. Win Moses: Bauer’s chair of GOP. 51st vote? "