36-217 Probability Theory and Random Processes Lecture Notes
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Foundations of Probability Theory and Statistical Mechanics
Chapter 6 Foundations of Probability Theory and Statistical Mechanics EDWIN T. JAYNES Department of Physics, Washington University St. Louis, Missouri 1. What Makes Theories Grow? Scientific theories are invented and cared for by people; and so have the properties of any other human institution - vigorous growth when all the factors are right; stagnation, decadence, and even retrograde progress when they are not. And the factors that determine which it will be are seldom the ones (such as the state of experimental or mathe matical techniques) that one might at first expect. Among factors that have seemed, historically, to be more important are practical considera tions, accidents of birth or personality of individual people; and above all, the general philosophical climate in which the scientist lives, which determines whether efforts in a certain direction will be approved or deprecated by the scientific community as a whole. However much the" pure" scientist may deplore it, the fact remains that military or engineering applications of science have, over and over again, provided the impetus without which a field would have remained stagnant. We know, for example, that ARCHIMEDES' work in mechanics was at the forefront of efforts to defend Syracuse against the Romans; and that RUMFORD'S experiments which led eventually to the first law of thermodynamics were performed in the course of boring cannon. The development of microwave theory and techniques during World War II, and the present high level of activity in plasma physics are more recent examples of this kind of interaction; and it is clear that the past decade of unprecedented advances in solid-state physics is not entirely unrelated to commercial applications, particularly in electronics. -
Randomized Algorithms Week 1: Probability Concepts
600.664: Randomized Algorithms Professor: Rao Kosaraju Johns Hopkins University Scribe: Your Name Randomized Algorithms Week 1: Probability Concepts Rao Kosaraju 1.1 Motivation for Randomized Algorithms In a randomized algorithm you can toss a fair coin as a step of computation. Alternatively a bit taking values of 0 and 1 with equal probabilities can be chosen in a single step. More generally, in a single step an element out of n elements can be chosen with equal probalities (uniformly at random). In such a setting, our goal can be to design an algorithm that minimizes run time. Randomized algorithms are often advantageous for several reasons. They may be faster than deterministic algorithms. They may also be simpler. In addition, there are problems that can be solved with randomization for which we cannot design efficient deterministic algorithms directly. In some of those situations, we can design attractive deterministic algoirthms by first designing randomized algorithms and then converting them into deter- ministic algorithms by applying standard derandomization techniques. Deterministic Algorithm: Worst case running time, i.e. the number of steps the algo- rithm takes on the worst input of length n. Randomized Algorithm: 1) Expected number of steps the algorithm takes on the worst input of length n. 2) w.h.p. bounds. As an example of a randomized algorithm, we now present the classic quicksort algorithm and derive its performance later on in the chapter. We are given a set S of n distinct elements and we want to sort them. Below is the randomized quicksort algorithm. Algorithm RandQuickSort(S = fa1; a2; ··· ; ang If jSj ≤ 1 then output S; else: Choose a pivot element ai uniformly at random (u.a.r.) from S Split the set S into two subsets S1 = fajjaj < aig and S2 = fajjaj > aig by comparing each aj with the chosen ai Recurse on sets S1 and S2 Output the sorted set S1 then ai and then sorted S2. -
Partnership As Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949
Yale University EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale Discussion Papers Economic Growth Center 5-1-2017 Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949 Cihan Artunç Timothy Guinnane Follow this and additional works at: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series Recommended Citation Artunç, Cihan and Guinnane, Timothy, "Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949" (2017). Discussion Papers. 1065. https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series/1065 This Discussion Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Economic Growth Center at EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. It has been accepted for inclusion in Discussion Papers by an authorized administrator of EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ECONOMIC GROWTH CENTER YALE UNIVERSITY P.O. Box 208269 New Haven, CT 06520-8269 http://www.econ.yale.edu/~egcenter Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 1057 Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949 Cihan Artunç University of Arizona Timothy W. Guinnane Yale University Notes: Center discussion papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2973315 Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949 Cihan Artunç⇤ Timothy W. Guinnane† This Draft: May 2017 Abstract The relationship between legal forms of firm organization and economic develop- ment remains poorly understood. Recent research disputes the view that the joint-stock corporation played a crucial role in historical economic development, but retains the view that the costless firm dissolution implicit in non-corporate forms is detrimental to investment. -
A Model of Gene Expression Based on Random Dynamical Systems Reveals Modularity Properties of Gene Regulatory Networks†
A Model of Gene Expression Based on Random Dynamical Systems Reveals Modularity Properties of Gene Regulatory Networks† Fernando Antoneli1,4,*, Renata C. Ferreira3, Marcelo R. S. Briones2,4 1 Departmento de Informática em Saúde, Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), SP, Brasil 2 Departmento de Microbiologia, Imunologia e Parasitologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), SP, Brasil 3 College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University (Hershey), PA, USA 4 Laboratório de Genômica Evolutiva e Biocomplexidade, EPM, UNIFESP, Ed. Pesquisas II, Rua Pedro de Toledo 669, CEP 04039-032, São Paulo, Brasil Abstract. Here we propose a new approach to modeling gene expression based on the theory of random dynamical systems (RDS) that provides a general coupling prescription between the nodes of any given regulatory network given the dynamics of each node is modeled by a RDS. The main virtues of this approach are the following: (i) it provides a natural way to obtain arbitrarily large networks by coupling together simple basic pieces, thus revealing the modularity of regulatory networks; (ii) the assumptions about the stochastic processes used in the modeling are fairly general, in the sense that the only requirement is stationarity; (iii) there is a well developed mathematical theory, which is a blend of smooth dynamical systems theory, ergodic theory and stochastic analysis that allows one to extract relevant dynamical and statistical information without solving -
POISSON PROCESSES 1.1. the Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis
POISSON PROCESSES 1. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1.1. The Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis Experiment. About 90 years ago Ernest Rutherford and his collaborators at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge conducted a series of pathbreaking experiments on radioactive decay. In one of these, a radioactive substance was observed in N = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each, and the number of decay particles reaching a counter during each period was recorded. The table below shows the number Nk of these time periods in which exactly k decays were observed for k = 0,1,2,...,9. Also shown is N pk where k pk = (3.87) exp 3.87 =k! {− g The parameter value 3.87 was chosen because it is the mean number of decays/period for Rutherford’s data. k Nk N pk k Nk N pk 0 57 54.4 6 273 253.8 1 203 210.5 7 139 140.3 2 383 407.4 8 45 67.9 3 525 525.5 9 27 29.2 4 532 508.4 10 16 17.1 5 408 393.5 ≥ This is typical of what happens in many situations where counts of occurences of some sort are recorded: the Poisson distribution often provides an accurate – sometimes remarkably ac- curate – fit. Why? 1.2. Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution. The ubiquity of the Poisson distri- bution in nature stems in large part from its connection to the Binomial and Hypergeometric distributions. The Binomial-(N ,p) distribution is the distribution of the number of successes in N independent Bernoulli trials, each with success probability p. -
Probability Theory Review for Machine Learning
Probability Theory Review for Machine Learning Samuel Ieong November 6, 2006 1 Basic Concepts Broadly speaking, probability theory is the mathematical study of uncertainty. It plays a central role in machine learning, as the design of learning algorithms often relies on proba- bilistic assumption of the data. This set of notes attempts to cover some basic probability theory that serves as a background for the class. 1.1 Probability Space When we speak about probability, we often refer to the probability of an event of uncertain nature taking place. For example, we speak about the probability of rain next Tuesday. Therefore, in order to discuss probability theory formally, we must first clarify what the possible events are to which we would like to attach probability. Formally, a probability space is defined by the triple (Ω, F,P ), where • Ω is the space of possible outcomes (or outcome space), • F ⊆ 2Ω (the power set of Ω) is the space of (measurable) events (or event space), • P is the probability measure (or probability distribution) that maps an event E ∈ F to a real value between 0 and 1 (think of P as a function). Given the outcome space Ω, there is some restrictions as to what subset of 2Ω can be considered an event space F: • The trivial event Ω and the empty event ∅ is in F. • The event space F is closed under (countable) union, i.e., if α, β ∈ F, then α ∪ β ∈ F. • The even space F is closed under complement, i.e., if α ∈ F, then (Ω \ α) ∈ F. -
Effective Theory of Levy and Feller Processes
The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School Eberly College of Science EFFECTIVE THEORY OF LEVY AND FELLER PROCESSES A Dissertation in Mathematics by Adrian Maler © 2015 Adrian Maler Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy December 2015 The dissertation of Adrian Maler was reviewed and approved* by the following: Stephen G. Simpson Professor of Mathematics Dissertation Adviser Chair of Committee Jan Reimann Assistant Professor of Mathematics Manfred Denker Visiting Professor of Mathematics Bharath Sriperumbudur Assistant Professor of Statistics Yuxi Zheng Francis R. Pentz and Helen M. Pentz Professor of Science Head of the Department of Mathematics *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School. ii ABSTRACT We develop a computational framework for the study of continuous-time stochastic processes with c`adl`agsample paths, then effectivize important results from the classical theory of L´evyand Feller processes. Probability theory (including stochastic processes) is based on measure. In Chapter 2, we review computable measure theory, and, as an application to probability, effectivize the Skorokhod representation theorem. C`adl`ag(right-continuous, left-limited) functions, representing possible sample paths of a stochastic process, form a metric space called Skorokhod space. In Chapter 3, we show that Skorokhod space is a computable metric space, and establish fundamental computable properties of this space. In Chapter 4, we develop an effective theory of L´evyprocesses. L´evy processes are known to have c`adl`agmodifications, and we show that such a modification is computable from a suitable representation of the process. We also show that the L´evy-It^odecomposition is computable. -
Contents-Preface
Stochastic Processes From Applications to Theory CHAPMAN & HA LL/CRC Texts in Statis tical Science Series Series Editors Francesca Dominici, Harvard School of Public Health, USA Julian J. Faraway, University of Bath, U K Martin Tanner, Northwestern University, USA Jim Zidek, University of Br itish Columbia, Canada Statistical !eory: A Concise Introduction Statistics for Technology: A Course in Applied F. Abramovich and Y. Ritov Statistics, !ird Edition Practical Multivariate Analysis, Fifth Edition C. Chat!eld A. A!!, S. May, and V.A. Clark Analysis of Variance, Design, and Regression : Practical Statistics for Medical Research Linear Modeling for Unbalanced Data, D.G. Altman Second Edition R. Christensen Interpreting Data: A First Course in Statistics Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis: An A.J.B. Anderson Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians Introduction to Probability with R R. Christensen, W. Johnson, A. Branscum, K. Baclawski and T.E. Hanson Linear Algebra and Matrix Analysis for Modelling Binary Data, Second Edition Statistics D. Collett S. Banerjee and A. Roy Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and !ird Edition Selected Topics, Volume I, D. Collett Second Edition Introduction to Statistical Methods for P. J. Bickel and K. A. Doksum Clinical Trials Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and T.D. Cook and D.L. DeMets Selected Topics, Volume II Applied Statistics: Principles and Examples P. J. Bickel and K. A. Doksum D.R. Cox and E.J. Snell Analysis of Categorical Data with R Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing C. R. Bilder and T. M. Loughin Risks Statistical Methods for SPC and TQM M. -
Notes on Stochastic Processes
Notes on stochastic processes Paul Keeler March 20, 2018 This work is licensed under a “CC BY-SA 3.0” license. Abstract A stochastic process is a type of mathematical object studied in mathemat- ics, particularly in probability theory, which can be used to represent some type of random evolution or change of a system. There are many types of stochastic processes with applications in various fields outside of mathematics, including the physical sciences, social sciences, finance and economics as well as engineer- ing and technology. This survey aims to give an accessible but detailed account of various stochastic processes by covering their history, various mathematical definitions, and key properties as well detailing various terminology and appli- cations of the process. An emphasis is placed on non-mathematical descriptions of key concepts, with recommendations for further reading. 1 Introduction In probability and related fields, a stochastic or random process, which is also called a random function, is a mathematical object usually defined as a collection of random variables. Historically, the random variables were indexed by some set of increasing numbers, usually viewed as time, giving the interpretation of a stochastic process representing numerical values of some random system evolv- ing over time, such as the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule [120, page 7][51, page 46 and 47][66, page 1]. Stochastic processes are widely used as math- ematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. They have applications in many disciplines including physical sciences such as biology [67, 34], chemistry [156], ecology [16][104], neuroscience [102], and physics [63] as well as technology and engineering fields such as image and signal processing [53], computer science [15], information theory [43, page 71], and telecommunications [97][11][12]. -
Curriculum Vitae
Curriculum Vitae General First name: Khudoyberdiyev Surname: Abror Sex: Male Date of birth: 1985, September 19 Place of birth: Tashkent, Uzbekistan Nationality: Uzbek Citizenship: Uzbekistan Marital status: married, two children. Official address: Department of Algebra and Functional Analysis, National University of Uzbekistan, 4, Talabalar Street, Tashkent, 100174, Uzbekistan. Phone: 998-71-227-12-24, Fax: 998-71-246-02-24 Private address: 5-14, Lutfiy Street, Tashkent city, Uzbekistan, Phone: 998-97-422-00-89 (mobile), E-mail: [email protected] Education: 2008-2010 Institute of Mathematics and Information Technologies of Uzbek Academy of Sciences, Uzbekistan, PHD student; 2005-2007 National University of Uzbekistan, master student; 2001-2005 National University of Uzbekistan, bachelor student. Languages: English (good), Russian (good), Uzbek (native), 1 Academic Degrees: Doctor of Sciences in physics and mathematics 28.04.2016, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Dissertation title: Structural theory of finite - dimensional complex Leibniz algebras and classification of nilpotent Leibniz superalgebras. Scientific adviser: Prof. Sh.A. Ayupov; Doctor of Philosophy in physics and mathematics (PhD) 28.10.2010, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Dissertation title: The classification some nilpotent finite dimensional graded complex Leibniz algebras. Supervisor: Prof. Sh.A. Ayupov; Master of Science, National University of Uzbekistan, 05.06.2007, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Dissertation title: The classification filiform Leibniz superalgebras with nilindex n+m. Supervisor: Prof. Sh.A. Ayupov; Bachelor in Mathematics, National University of Uzbekistan, 20.06.2005, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Dissertation title: On the classification of low dimensional Zinbiel algebras. Supervisor: Prof. I.S. Rakhimov. Professional occupation: June of 2017 - up to Professor, department Algebra and Functional Analysis, present time National University of Uzbekistan. -
Random Walk in Random Scenery (RWRS)
IMS Lecture Notes–Monograph Series Dynamics & Stochastics Vol. 48 (2006) 53–65 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2006 DOI: 10.1214/074921706000000077 Random walk in random scenery: A survey of some recent results Frank den Hollander1,2,* and Jeffrey E. Steif 3,† Leiden University & EURANDOM and Chalmers University of Technology Abstract. In this paper we give a survey of some recent results for random walk in random scenery (RWRS). On Zd, d ≥ 1, we are given a random walk with i.i.d. increments and a random scenery with i.i.d. components. The walk and the scenery are assumed to be independent. RWRS is the random process where time is indexed by Z, and at each unit of time both the step taken by the walk and the scenery value at the site that is visited are registered. We collect various results that classify the ergodic behavior of RWRS in terms of the characteristics of the underlying random walk (and discuss extensions to stationary walk increments and stationary scenery components as well). We describe a number of results for scenery reconstruction and close by listing some open questions. 1. Introduction Random walk in random scenery is a family of stationary random processes ex- hibiting amazingly rich behavior. We will survey some of the results that have been obtained in recent years and list some open questions. Mike Keane has made funda- mental contributions to this topic. As close colleagues it has been a great pleasure to work with him. We begin by defining the object of our study. Fix an integer d ≥ 1. -
Discrete Mathematics Discrete Probability
Introduction Probability Theory Discrete Mathematics Discrete Probability Prof. Steven Evans Prof. Steven Evans Discrete Mathematics Introduction Probability Theory 7.1: An Introduction to Discrete Probability Prof. Steven Evans Discrete Mathematics Introduction Probability Theory Finite probability Definition An experiment is a procedure that yields one of a given set os possible outcomes. The sample space of the experiment is the set of possible outcomes. An event is a subset of the sample space. Laplace's definition of the probability p(E) of an event E in a sample space S with finitely many equally possible outcomes is jEj p(E) = : jSj Prof. Steven Evans Discrete Mathematics By the product rule, the number of hands containing a full house is the product of the number of ways to pick two kinds in order, the number of ways to pick three out of four for the first kind, and the number of ways to pick two out of the four for the second kind. We see that the number of hands containing a full house is P(13; 2) · C(4; 3) · C(4; 2) = 13 · 12 · 4 · 6 = 3744: Because there are C(52; 5) = 2; 598; 960 poker hands, the probability of a full house is 3744 ≈ 0:0014: 2598960 Introduction Probability Theory Finite probability Example What is the probability that a poker hand contains a full house, that is, three of one kind and two of another kind? Prof. Steven Evans Discrete Mathematics Introduction Probability Theory Finite probability Example What is the probability that a poker hand contains a full house, that is, three of one kind and two of another kind? By the product rule, the number of hands containing a full house is the product of the number of ways to pick two kinds in order, the number of ways to pick three out of four for the first kind, and the number of ways to pick two out of the four for the second kind.