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Project Marinus RIT-T PACR

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Project Marinus RIT-T PACR RIT-T PROJECT ASSESSMENT CONCLUSIONS REPORT CONFIDENTIAL These records and accompanying documentation consist of confidential and/or internal deliberative information prepared by representatives or consultants working for Project Marinus for deliberative purposes. The document is not for public release as the information may not be final in nature and could be misapplied or misinterpreted. The information should not be used, disclosed or transferred without TasNetworks express wRIT-Ten permission. All records are not intended for public release. THIS PAGE WAS LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY This document has been produced by Tasmanian Networks Pty Ltd, ABN 24 167 357 299 (hereafter referred to as "TasNetworks"). Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to: Stephen Clark Project Director, Marinus Link PO Box 606 Moonah TAS 7009 Email: [email protected] Page 3 of 162 Table of Contents Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................................7 Inputs, assumptions and scenarios for the market modelling ................................................................. 8 Listening to customers and stakeholders ................................................................................................ 9 1500 megawatts (MW) Project Marinus is the preferred option ............................................................ 10 The pace of NEM transition and project timing ..................................................................................... 12 Project cost estimates ........................................................................................................................... 16 How does Project Marinus deliver benefits? ......................................................................................... 18 Pricing impact ........................................................................................................................................ 19 Next Steps ............................................................................................................................................. 20 1 Introduction and Overview ................................................................................................................. 21 1.1 Purpose of this document ...................................................................................................... 22 1.2 RIT-T analysis supports Project Marinus ............................................................................... 22 1.3 A technology neutral modelling approach .............................................................................. 23 1.4 Optimal timing and AEMO feedback loop .............................................................................. 23 1.5 Structure of this PACR ........................................................................................................... 24 2 2020 ISP and recent policy developments ........................................................................................ 26 2.1 Australia’s complex energy transition .................................................................................... 26 2.2 ISP findings for Project Marinus ............................................................................................. 28 2.3 Inputs, assumptions and policy developments ...................................................................... 31 3 RIT-T process and new ISP Rules ..................................................................................................... 36 3.1 Completed stages of the RIT-T .............................................................................................. 36 3.2 Supplementary analysis report .............................................................................................. 38 3.3 New ISP Rules ....................................................................................................................... 39 Page 4 of 162 4 Listening to stakeholders ................................................................................................................... 41 4.1 TasNetworks’ engagement approach .................................................................................... 41 4.2 Feedback on our PADR ......................................................................................................... 42 4.3 Feedback on our Supplementary Analysis Report ................................................................ 44 4.4 Recent Government initiatives ............................................................................................... 46 4.5 Batteries as an alternative to Project Marinus ....................................................................... 46 4.6 TRET and Battery of a Nation ................................................................................................ 47 4.7 Project benefits ...................................................................................................................... 47 4.8 Staging options for Project Marinus ....................................................................................... 48 5 Description of the credible options ................................................................................................... 49 5.1 Identified need........................................................................................................................ 49 5.2 Base case .............................................................................................................................. 50 5.3 Credible options ..................................................................................................................... 51 5.4 Technical feasibility ................................................................................................................ 53 5.5 Costs of each option .............................................................................................................. 53 5.6 Options considered but not assessed further ........................................................................ 58 6 PACR modelling .................................................................................................................................. 60 6.1 Modelling approach ................................................................................................................ 61 6.2 Assumptions and input data ................................................................................................... 64 6.3 Scenarios and weighting ........................................................................................................ 68 6.4 Input and assumptions deviations from 2020 ISP ................................................................. 69 7 Economic benefit results .................................................................................................................... 72 7.1 Net economic benefit results .................................................................................................. 72 7.2 Preferred option ..................................................................................................................... 77 7.3 Project timing and scope ........................................................................................................ 78 7.4 Robustness of net economic benefit ...................................................................................... 81 7.5 Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................................. 82 7.6 High-level summary of benefits .............................................................................................. 90 Page 5 of 162 8 Why does Project Marinus provide a net economic benefit? ......................................................... 92 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 92 8.2 The scale of NEM transition ................................................................................................... 93 8.3 Categories of benefits provided by Project Marinus .............................................................. 95 8.4 Impact of state-based renewable energy policies on least-cost outcomes ........................... 97 8.5 The case for long-duration energy storage (LDES) ............................................................. 105 9 Other project considerations ........................................................................................................... 116 9.1 Transmission pricing ............................................................................................................ 116 9.2 Management of project costs ............................................................................................... 118 10 Next steps .......................................................................................................................................... 120 Appendices and attachments ..................................................................................................................... 121 Appendix 1 – Summary of submissions to the PADR and Supplementary Analysis Report .............. 122 Appendix 2 – Technical analysis summary .............................................................................................. 148 Appendix 3
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