Public Polling Analysis America First Policies Paid for by America First Policies © America First Policies, All Rights Reserved Table of Contents National Environment ....................................................................3 Direction of the Country Issue Importance Trump Favorability Trump Job Approval Making Headlines ..........................................................................7 GOP Divided ..............................................................................24 Immigration ...............................................................................38 Tax Reform ................................................................................47 NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !2 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend National Environment Direction of the Country Would you say things in this country today are... The Economist/YouGov, October 22-24, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Male Female Right Direction 28% 36% 21% Wrong Track 58% 53% 63% Not Sure 14% 11% 16% Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Reuters/Ipsos, Americans online 10/20-24/17 10/13-17/17, 10/6-10/17 9/26-10/3/1 , N=2,352 N=1,678 , N=1584 7, N=1659 Right Direction 24% 26% 24% 25% Wrong Track 645 63% 64% 63% Unsure 12% 11% 11% 11% Rasmussen Reports, n=2,500 likely voters Right Wrong Track Direction 10/15-19/17 33% 61% 10/ 8-12/17 31% 63% 10/1-5/17 32% 62% Issue Importance In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Reuters/Ipsos, October 20-24, 2017, n=2,352 Americans online Total Healthcare 17% Terrorism / terrorist attacks 13% Economy generally 12% NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !3 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Morality 9% War / foreign conflicts 6% Immigration 6% Education 5% Unemployment/lack of jobs 5% Crime 5% Which of these is the most important issue for you? The Economist/YouGov, October 22-24, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Healthcare 18% The economy 14% Social Security 14% The environment 9% Education 8% Terrorism 7% Immigration 6% Medicare 5% Trump Favorability Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump? The Economist/YouGov, October 22-24, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Men Women Tot al Favorable 39% 45% 35% Tot al Unfavorable 53% 49% 57% Very Favorable 23% 29% 18% Somewhat Favorable 16% 16% 17% Somewhat Unfavorable 9% 9% 9% Very Unfavorable 44% 40% 48% Don’t Know 7% 6% 8% NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !4 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Trump Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos, October 20-24, 2017, n=2,352 Americans online Total Democra Republica Independent t n Total Approve 35% 7% 77% 33% Total 60% 91% 21% 62% Disapprove The Economist/YouGov,, n=1500 US Adults Total Approve Total Delta Disapprove 10/22-24/17 37% 53% -16 10/15-16/17 37% 52% -15 10/7-10/17 36% 52% -16 NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !5 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend The way Donald Trump is handling is job as president Gallup Poll, n= approx. 1,500 Adults nationwide Approve Disapprove Delta 10/22-24/17 36% 59% -23 10/21-23/17 36% 58% -22 10/20-22/17 36% 57% -21 10/19-21/17 36% 58% -22 10/18-20/17 36% 59% -23 10/17-19/17 35% 60% -25 10/16-18/17 36% 59% -23 10/15-17/17 36% 59% -23 Rasmussen, n=1,500 likely voters Total Approve Total Delta Disapprove 10/25/17 42% 56% -14 10/24/17 43% 56% -13 10/23/17 41% 58% -17 10/20/17 43% 55% -12 10/19/17 41% 57% -16 10/18/17 43% 55% -12 NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !6 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend Making Headlines Study: Both parties gripped by deep divisions The country is as politically polarized as it's ever been. And the divisions are almost as bad within the parties themselves. That's the takeaway from the Pew Research Center’s latest political typology report, released Tuesday, which shows a Republican coalition split over immigration, the nation’s role in the world and whether the U.S. economic system is fair — even if the most vociferous Republicans, despite their differences, approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance. These divergences underscore the challenges Trump and the GOP have had in implementing a legislative agenda. Similarly, Democratic-leaning groups are in near-lockstep when it comes to disapproving of Trump. But there are important differences in how involved the U.S. should be in global affairs, as well as on religious and social issues. The most strident liberals — who make up about half of politically active, Democratic leaning Americans — are also the most energized Americans about politics, the report finds: Nearly half say they have contributed to a political candidate or campaign in the past year, and almost four-in-10 say they have participated in a protest against Trump’s policies. “While partisanship obviously is such a dominant force, (what) we do find really interesting (is) fissures between both partisan coalitions,” said Carroll Doherty, the director of political research at the Pew Research Center. “This presents a lot of challenges to both partisan coalitions, both electorally and in how they attempt to govern.” Here are the nine cohesive groups into which Pew has sorted Americans — who they are and what they believe — from most conservative to most liberal. Core Conservatives (15 percent of registered voters): The most traditional Republican group, “Core Conservatives” are also the most politically engaged. More than nine-in-10 — 93 percent — say they always or nearly always vote in elections. “Core Conservatives” believe strongly in a smaller government with fewer services: 92 percent say stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !7 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend the economy, for example, compared to only 37 percent of the general public. Ninety percent say the obstacles that once made it harder for women than men to get ahead are largely gone (compared to just 42 percent of all Americans), and 81 percent say the U.S. has made the changes needed to give blacks equal rights with whites (compared to 35 percent). Two-thirds of “Core Conservatives” are men, and 85 percent are white. While a third of “Core Conservatives” have a college degree, more than the other GOP-leaning groups, 80 percent say colleges and universities have a negative effect on the country. Country First Conservatives (7 percent): This group makes up a smaller share of the GOP coalition. Like “Core Conservatives,” “Country First Conservatives” believe in smaller government. But they are more socially conservative, more skeptical of immigration and more likely to say that too much openness threatens the nation’s identity. This is the oldest group — 71 percent are 50 years old or older — and half of “Country First Conservatives” say they attend church weekly. Only about 15 percent have college degrees, and half haven’t attended college at all. More than three-quarters, 76 percent, say immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care, compared to just 26 percent of the general public. And 70 percent say homosexuality should be discouraged by society, while only 24 percent of all Americans agree with that view. By contrast, “Core Conservatives” are more tolerant of homosexuality. Market-Skeptic Republicans (12 percent): These Americans lean Republican — only 12 percent identify as Democrats — but are view the U.S. economic system negatively. The vast majority, 94 percent, say the system unfairly favors powerful interests. Only 10 percent say most corporations make a fair and reasonable amount of profit, compared to 82 percent of “Core Conservatives.” A 55 percent majority of “Market-Skeptic Republicans” are younger than age 50, and only 34 percent attend religious services weekly — a lower rate than other GOP- leaning groups. A majority, 57 percent, say a friend or family member has been addicted to drugs — larger than other groups, though not much higher than the 46 percent of Americans overall who say that. NATIONAL POLLING MEMO !8 Baselice and Associates | National Research Inc | the polling company, inc./Woman Trend New Era Enterprisers (11 percent): This is the youngest and most moderate GOP- leaning group: 26 percent are younger than 30. And only two-thirds are white, fewer than other Republican groups. “They’re generally less intense or angry about things,” Doherty says. They have more moderate views on immigration — only 23 percent say immigrants are a burden on our country — and the U.S.’s role in the world. Bystanders (0 percent): The group of those who aren’t registered to vote and pay little or no attention to politics and government is comprised mostly of younger Americans and racial minorities. Despite their lack of participation, more identify as Democrats (40 percent) than Republicans (26 percent). Devout and Diverse (9 percent): This group leans Democratic, though not strongly; 59 percent associate with the party. They are older — 60 percent are 50 and older — and majority non-white. This group is more socially conservative — just 53 percent say homosexuality should be accepted by society — but also want more government services and further action on racial equality. Disaffected Democrats (14 percent): These Americans aren’t really disaffected with the Democratic Party: Roughly 85 percent still identify as Democrats. But they are disaffected with politics and government. Despite their Democratic orientation, a 63 percent majority says government is almost always wasteful and inefficient. Virtually all of them, 99 percent, think the economic system unfairly favors powerful interests.