WEEKLY REPORT 7 – 13 August 2020

KEY DYNAMICS

COVID-19

 Nationwide COVID outbreak

Governance

 Ongoing instability in southern

Security dynamics

 Turkish consolidation in northern Syria  SDF attempts damage control over ongoing tribal tensions

Cover photo: A conversation between Turkish soldiers and Syrian fighters

MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 7 – 13 August 2020 > 1 Nationwide COVID outbreak COVID-19 continues to spread in other areas of the country. In the northwest, two cases COVID cases on the rise in northeastern Syria were recorded on 10 August in what is known as the ‘old’ Bab ElSalameh camp, on the COVID-19 cases in self-administration-held Syrian-Turkish border, part of a cluster of areas in northeastern Syria are on the rise: as camps near the Bab Al Salama border of 10 August, the region recorded 119 crossing. As of 11 August, this brings the confirmed cases. Despite the self- number of total COVID-19 cases in Turkish- administration imposing a ten-day curfew on administered northern to 23, and 47 31 July, mandating the closure of cafes, public across the whole of the opposition-held swimming pools and sports centers and northwest, according to the Early Warning banning communal prayers at mosques, and Alert Network (EWARN). Local sources sources suggest that the local population has report that the Bab ElSalameh camp houses not strictly adhered to preventative around 1,500 tents. Despite the COVID-19 measures. Prohibitive costs of disinfectants, outbreak, residents of the camp are said to medical masks and gloves are also linked to not be adhering to precautionary measures. the growing case load. Camps in both administrative zones of the The outbreak in northeastern Syria has northwest remain highly vulnerable in the reached vulnerable, high-density camps, face of COVID-19 as the humanitarian including Al-Hol, which reportedly houses response remains below the threshold of aid 65,000 people including children. The first and basic services provision. case of COVID-19 was recorded at Al-Hol on 10 August, one week after three health workers Syrian doctors bearing brunt of COVID-19 tested positive for the virus. The spread of outbreak in government-held Syria COVID-19 in the camp could have catastrophic consequences given the camp is overcrowded Following a major COVID-19 outbreak in and lacks the capacity to impose adequate government-held areas, Syrian doctors are social distancing measures and curfews. now paying the price of the Syrian government’s ineffective management of the The camp also suffers from a lack in basic pandemic, with the Doctors’ water provision and hygiene and sanitation Syndicate announcing the death of 33 doctors products, made worse by dire living “in the face of corona” since 25 July. conditions and a lack of facilities for medical testing. The spread of COVID-19 in Al-Hol puts The outbreak’s impact on Syrian doctors is at risk some 43,000 children with already- such that healthcare workers have started vulnerable immune systems as a result of going on record contradicting statements years of conflict and displacement. from the Ministry of Health, potentially Worryingly, local media reports suggest that putting themselves at risk by breaking a code camp residents are also refusing to follow of silence imposed by authorities regarding COVID-19 precautionary measures. the extent of the COVID-19 outbreak. On 2 August Dr. Nabough Al Awa, dean of

MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 7 – 13 August 2020 > 2 Damascus University’s medical school, stated deployment from Kisweh, Rural Damascus, of that the “number of COVID-19 cases are much Syrian Arab Army’s (SAA) 7th Division tanks higher than the numbers announced by the and fighters from 4 August. The Ministry of Health.” reinforcements reportedly positioned themselves in pre-existing Syrian No support for Syrian doctors government checkpoints and positions around Jasim township – predominantly on Local sources reported that Syrian doctors Tal Mtawak between Jasim and Ankhal and Tal are not receiving public health support of any Hara between Hara and Jasim – providing kind. Medical professionals are forced to back-up to Syrian government forces and purchase personal protective equipment pro-Iranian militias stationed there. (PPE), along with other safety equipment, at their own expense. Organization of the Increased instability in Jasim COVID-19 response within hospitals is also said to be non-existent, with limited protocol The deployment of Syrian Arab Army for dealing with infected patients and reinforcements followed increased instability sanitization inside hospitals largely absent. in Jasim; On 28 July, a former opposition The Ministry of Health is not providing any fighter was found dead on the town’s increased financial support to hospitals, outskirts. On 26 July, unknown gunmen leading to an inability to purchase effective conducted a drive-by shooting targeting a equipment to help deal with the health crisis. State Security vehicle on the Jasim-Ankhal With no effective plan or support to deal with road, wounding several pro-government the pandemic, the COVID-19 outbreak is likely fighters. On 18 July, Jasim township’s local to continue to spiral out of control in police branch was targeted with an IED government-held territories. followed by a coordinated attack on Syrian government positions across the town. Local Ongoing instability in southern Syria sources have stated that the Syrian government had initially used the 18 July Uneasy agreement between Syrian government, attack against State Security as a pretext to 5th Corps in Jasim deploy its reinforcements.

The Syrian government reached an agreement with Jasim residents and the 5th Corps on 9 August to cease a planned You might have missed; offensive on the town and withdraw its reinforcements following three days of  COVID-19 outbreaks negotiations. Local sources stated that  Heated tension in Deir-ez-Zor according to the agreement, the offensive  Government backed HLP violations would be halted provided residents handed  Anti-government protests over wanted individuals said to be hiding in the town. The agreement was preceded by the

MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 7 – 13 August 2020 > 3 Implementation of the agreement questionable Corps to dissolve its 23rd Division. Reasoning behind the decision highlighted Despite the agreement, Jasim residents administrative corruption within the Division, remain suspicious of the Syrian government in addition to legal accusations of criminal and have yet to hand over any wanted activity against it. The decision also included individuals. In addition, the Syrian a referral for those involved in legal disputes government’s reinforcements remain in place to bring cases to military court, to enable the around Jasim township. Tensions remain high arrest of the division leader and a number of on both sides, with neither group either wanted persons. honoring or reneging on the obligations of the agreement as yet. Commander accused of insulting fellow factions, The Syrian government’s threat of an criminal activity offensive against Jasim is synonymous with The 3rd Corps leadership instructed all similar threats against and Dar‘a Al members of the 23rd Division to review the Balad in May, as well as an offensive on As- corps’ organizational branch in order to Sanamayn in March that saw reorganize them and integrate them into the units storm the town and enforce a rest of its formations within a period of one reconciliation/evacuation agreement on week. former opposition fighters. This appears to be a long-term strategy taken by the Syrian The main headquarters of the 23rd Division government to force towns and cities in was located in the town of Hur Kilis, near the western Dar’a to conduct new rounds of Syrian-Turkish border, and acted as a base reconciliation agreements with more for 300 fighters – most of them from Tal Rifaat favorable terms. – led by Mohammad Samir. According to local activists, Samir stands accused of insulting Turkish consolidation in northern the leaders of al-Jabha al-Shamiyah on social Syria media, in addition to exploitation of his position for personal interests and other Syrian National Army in northern Aleppo dissolves issues related to looting and kidnapping. rival faction Turkey seeks ‘complete military situation’ for SNA On 7 August, al-Jabha al-Shamiyah, in This operation coincides with news of the SNA cooperation with other Turkish-backed intention to launch a campaign against factions from the Syrian National Army (SNA), spoilers in its ranks in the areas northern took control of all the headquarters of the Aleppo, and it is believed that the campaign 23rd Division after a sudden and massive will continue in the Olive Branch and attack on all its bases and camps in the areas Euphrates Shield regions in the coming days. in and around Afrin and in northern Both areas have witnessed security tensions Aleppo. and conflicts between Turkish-backed rebel The attack came after a court decision issued by the leadership of the SNA-affiliated 3rd

MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 7 – 13 August 2020 > 4 formations, largely due to differences in their Pro-government groups, supported by tribal and regional affiliations. Russian forces, attempted to advance on With thousands of displaced people and several fronts, although opposition forces fighters having arrived from across the were able to stop four attempted advances country to northern Syria, the SNA has and take control of Tal al-Haddada in the developed into a complex array of factions northern countryside on 3 August, with roots in (for example) Deir-ez-Zor, following heavy clashes as well as artillery Damascus and Aleppo. The deteriorating and missile strikes in the area. economic situation has also created On 9 August, the Turkish army then increased competition over resources, with established a military base in Tal Al-Raqim, the weakness of central SNA command which overlooks Tal al-Haddadah, before unable to resolve ongoing differences. deploying heavy military vehicles and dozens The SNA, formed in late 2017 with the support of soldiers to the new base. of the Turkish government, is affiliated with According to a military commander in the the Ministry of Defense in the Syrian Interim National Liberation Front, it is possible that Government (SIG) based in Gaziantep, Turkey. the new Turkish observation point was The SNA have six military courts in the cities established to prevent the advance of the of al-Bab, Jarablus, Azaz, Afrin, Jandairis and Syrian government forces into the area, Rajo, however face difficulties in although Turkish observation points in implementing decisions for a range of northern and southern Idleb have reasons: the most important of which is the previously failed to stave off pro-government cover-up and protection of wanted fighters advances on opposition-held territory. by their factions and presence of factions’ Turkish reinforcements continued to arrive in own private courts. Earlier, the SIG’s minister Idleb, especially to Jabal al-Zawiya, and of defense, Major General Salim Idris, specifically to the two points of Sheikh announced a plan to reorganize the SNA and Tammam and al-Nabi Ayoub. develop a “complete military situation” (rather than a loose umbrella of divided, SDF attempts damage control over unorganised forces). The latest campaign ongoing tribal tensions suggests that the Turkish government has begun a process of reorganising the SNA, The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are facing holding accountable undisciplined and ongoing tensions with tribes in northeastern corrupt factions within it. Syria – particularly in Deir-ez-Zor – following a spate of unclaimed assassinations of Turkish army establishes new military point in leading tribal figures in recent weeks. Latakia While ISIS claimed responsibility for some assassinations which have occurred since Syrian government forces continued to late July, other killings have been blamed by violate the 5 March ceasefire through heavy default on the hardline group in lieu of any bombardment of areas of southern Idleb. claim of responsibility. HAT has reported on

MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 7 – 13 August 2020 > 5 some of these assassinations as well as continued meetings with tribal leaders – protests, some of them violent, which particularly those from the Akidaat tribe. The followed. Tribal leaders have refused several SDF may also push forward earlier promises reconciliation meetings offered by the SDF of an administrative restructuring of civil and since then. military structures in Deir-ez-Zor with a view Members of the Al-Bukamil clan in Deir-ez- to better enfranchising Arab communities Zor in particular called for opposition to the through local council structures. SDF. On 6 August, American representatives of the US-led International Coalition (IC) held a Uncertainty around perpetrators meeting with a delegation of Al-Bukamil The recent closure of smuggling routes elders at the Al-Omar oil field. Sheikh Ibrahim between self-administration and Al-Haval – relative of Sheikh Motshar Hamoud government-held areas may be fuelling the Al-Jadaan Al-Haval, who was assassinated on violence, meaning that the Syrian 2 August – reportedly attended this meeting government stands to lose key fuel and grain alongside Al-Bukamil tribal leaders from the supplies as a result. Local sources suggest towns of Theban, Shehil and Al-Hawaij. that the Syrian government and its allies may According to local sources, some leaders have had a hand in the recent assassinations present called on coalition representatives to because of this, as the actor with the most to exclude the Kurdish-led self-administration benefit from ongoing instability between the from managing the region and hand over its SDF and local tribes, in addition to the fact military and political administration to Arab that the SDF reached an agreement with US communities, while American representatives companies regarding oil reserves in promised to ensure better Arab northeastern Syria. ISIS, although claiming representation in the administration of the responsibility for some of the recent region. assassinations, has previously avoided The SDF and IC will continue attempts to de- targeting major tribal leaders, even at the escalate the situation in Deir-ez-Zor through height of its presence in northeastern Syria.

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CONTACT Nicholas Bodanac Humanitarian Access Team [email protected]

The Humanitarian Access Team (HAT) was established in Beirut in March 2015 in response to the collective challenges facing the remote humanitarian response in Syria. Successful humanitarian and development interventions require a nuanced and objective understanding of the human ecosystems in which these interventions occur. To this end, the HAT’s most important function is to collect, triangulate, synthesize, analyze and operationalize disparate data and information. Since 2015, HAT analysis has provided a forward-looking template for international interventions in Syria, and facilitated an increasingly nimble, adaptive, integrated, and ultimately impactful international response to the Syrian conflict.

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