When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations Silvia Miranda-Agrippino∗ Sinem Hacıo˘gluHoke† Bank of England Bank of England Centre for Macroeconomics (LSE) Data Analytics for Finance and Macro (KCL) Kristina Bluwstein‡ Bank of England August 22, 2018 Abstract We use monthly US utility patent applications to construct an external instrument for identification of technology news shocks in a rich-information VAR. Technology diffuses slowly, and affects total factor productivity in an S-shaped pattern. Responsible for about a tenth of economic fluctuations at business cycle frequencies, the shock elicits a slow, but large and positive response of quantities, and a sluggish contraction in prices, followed by an endogenous easing in the monetary stance. The ensuing economic expansion substantially anticipates any material increase in TFP. Technology news are strongly priced-in in the stock market on impact, but measures of consumers' expectations take sensibly longer to adjust, consistent with a New-Keynesian framework with nominal rigidities, and featuring informationally constrained agents. Keywords: Technology News Shocks; Business Cycle; Identification with External Instruments; Patents Applications. JEL Classification: E23, E32, O33, E22, O34 ∗Monetary Analysis, Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH, UK. E-mail:
[email protected] Web: www.silviamirandaagrippino.com †Financial Stability, Strategy and Risk. E-mail:
[email protected] Web: www.sinemhaciogluhoke.com ‡Financial Stability, Strategy and Risk. E-mail:
[email protected] Web: www.kristinabluwstein.com/ We are grateful to Franck Portier, Michael McMahon, Emanuel M¨onch, and seminar partici- pants at the Bank of England for useful comments and discussions.