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Comment.N.58.Kumar 08/12/2016 No. 58 SADF ISSN 2406-5617 COMMENT SADF COMMENT Heart of Asia Summit and the woes of Pakistan Dr. Satish Kumar The Amritsar Conference squarely blamed Pakistan for vitiating the political decorum in Afghanistan through its nefarious design of terror outfits. India and Afghanistan have been facing the heat and dust from Pakistan. That is how the major declarations of Amritsar concerned Pakistan’s undeclared war against India and Afghanistan. The Summit identified Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e- Muhammad and Haqqani groups as the main culprits. India and Afghanistan launched a stinging attack on a virtually isolated SADF - South Asia Islamabad for sponsoring and supporting terrorism. Attended by Democratic Forum some 40 countries, the two-day conference called for a strong 19 Avenue des Arts concerted regional and international cooperation to ensure the 1210 Brussels elimination of terrorism as well as the dismantling of terrorist Belgium sanctuaries and safe havens in the region. It called also for the [email protected] www.sadf.eu elimination of all kinds of financial, tactical and logistical support for terror networks. +12 026 834 180 +32 2 808 42 08 Reg. Num. BE 833606320 Keywords: Heart of Asia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, US Policy in Asia, Modi, State-sponsored terrorism, Counter-terrorism COMMENT " Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that resolute action was needed not just against forces of terrorism, but also against “those who support, shelter, train and finance them” asserting that terrorism and externally induced instability pose the gravest threat to Afghanistan’s peace, stability and prosperity. Modi also asked the international community to demonstrate strong collective will to defeat terror networks that cause bloodshed and spread fear. Silence and inaction against terrorism in Afghanistan and in the region will only embolden terrorists and their masters. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani directly blamed Pakistan for launching an undeclared war against his country and demanded that an Asian or an international institution verify the allegations of Pakistan-sponsored terror operations. Snubbing Pakistan, he said the USD 500 million pledged for the reconstruction of Afghanistan could be used by Islamabad to confront extremism. The conference declaration stated that among other terror groups like al-Qaeda, Daesh, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhhamad, Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, others are active in Pakistan and they create havoc in both the countries. Objectives of HoA : Istanbul Process The Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process was launched in 2011 and the participating countries include Pakistan, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan and the United Arab Emirates. The platform was created to encourage security, political and economic cooperation between Afghanistan and its neighbours. The countries which support the initiative are Australia, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Finland, Germany, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Britain and the US. The ‘Istanbul Process’ provides a platform to discuss an agenda of regional cooperation with Afghanistan at its centre. ‘Heart of Asia’ countries engage in result-oriented cooperation for a peaceful and stable Afghanistan and, by extension, a secure and prosperous region as a whole. !2 " COMMENT " Fourteen member countries are supported by 16 other countries and 12 regional and international organisations. What are the focus areas of the conference? The countries in the Istanbul Process have agreed on 1) political consultation involving Afghanistan and its near and extended neighbours, 2) a sustained incremental approach to implementation of the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) identified in the Istanbul Process document, and 3) seeking to contribute and bring greater coherence to the work of various regional processes and organisations, particularly as they relate to Afghanistan. The first conference was held in Istanbul in Turkey in 2011 — this is where the process gets its name from. It was then held in Kabul, Afghanistan, in 2012; Almaty, Kazakhstan, in 2013 and Beijing, China, in 2014. The 2015 meeting, the fifth, was co-hosted by Pakistan and Afghanistan. New Dynamics of Afghanistan and Power Game There is fundamental change in the power structure of the world which led to building new alliances. The victory of Donald Trump as a US president has major implications in the change of the region contours. The United States top commander in Afghanistan General John Nicholson has given a stunning new dimension to the Afghan war at the Pentagon. He blamed Russia and Iran, accusing them of supporting the Taliban in a deliberate attempt to undermine the Afghan government and NATO operations in Afghanistan. According to his report Russia, Iran and Pakistan are cohort of creating a new alliance in this region to challenge Western-led initiatives. It will have detrimental impact to bring peace and stability in the region. Russia has overtly lent legitimacy to the Taliban and there have been linkages between Iranian and Taliban in the past. This perspective gives a new angle to India as well. It is inconceivable that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence was not in the loop about Russia’s dealing with the Taliban. Russia’s spy Chief Alexander Bortnikov’s visit to Pakistan was surprising (it was the first visit of this kind in two decades took place) and it will be completely against the interests of India. According to Russia, Talibans are no !3 " COMMENT " longer Russia’s enemy in Afghanistan but have become a proxy, and Pakistan is no longer an adversarial power threatening the security of Central Asia but rather a collaborator. This change of contours explains how Talibans are no more Russia baiter and that in fact it is balancing western powers. This means that Pakistan is no longer an adversarial power threatening the security of Central Asia but a collaborator to checkmate western influence. India’s Stake in Afghanistan Indian policy has always been structural and positive in the context of Afghanistan. Bharat has also contributed in the strengthening of the Afghan army by providing military equipment such as helicopters and training to officers and soldiers. The building of the Afghan-India Friendship Dam (the so-called Salma Dam) and the Zaran-Delaram highway demonstrate India’s commitment to assist and build transit corridors for Afghan development and to connect the country to Iran and others parts of Central Asia. The Iran- India and Afghanistan trilateral trade agreement was signed. Afghanistan is a vast market for India. India is one of the closet regional powers that have invested in institutions and infrastructure building in Afghanistan. Improving connectivity in the region therefore helps India harness trade and transit potentials of Afghanistan. For India, Afghanistan is also an immense strategic potential market. India has also signed for the construction of the TAPI pipe line. It aims to bring natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India. Inner Dynamics of Afghanistan Afghanistan is an ethnically divided country, and these divides brought unrest and instability. That is how external players intruded into Afghanistan and played the card according to their vested interest. Currently Gulbudddin Hekmetyar is a force, if he is against the Afghan Government peace will be difficult to be established. President Ashraf Ghani’s peace deal with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar is seen as an important move. If this succeeds, Hezb-i-Islami (Hekmatyar’s militant organization) can return to mainstream !4 " COMMENT " Afghan politics and encourage the Afghan Taliban to come to the negotiating table as well. Other ethnic groups have been smaller in number and lost power with the time. Moreover, the Taliban is still dangerous. It is expanding since the US withdrawal of troops started. A recent Pentagon revelation is claiming that influence of Taliban is expanding, and it has actually doubled in the last two years. U.S. Army Gen. John Nicholson, the senior commander in Afghanistan has revealed it. The most recent data provided by the Pentagon to the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction show that among the country’s 407 districts, the number controlled by the government has slipped from 267 in May to 258 in August. The Taliban controls only eight districts and influences another 25, according to the Pentagon data. But a new independent analysis discovered that reality is worse: The Taliban actually controls or influences 97 districts, up from 70 a year ago. It is from these districts that insurgents have been able to launch serious and continuing assaults on five provincial capitals: Kunduz in the north, Maimana in the northwest, Tarin Kowt in the southeast, Farah city in the west and Lashkar Gah in the south. The northeast city of Gormach, a vital post on the strategic Ring Road that links a number of major cities, was overrun this fall. Rebel forces remain on the outskirts of those cities and sporadic fighting continues. If Talibans are backed by Russia or Pakistan, this could pose serious problems for the Afghan government and the efforts put up by different regional and international organisations could be hindered. Conclusion The Amritsar Conference was an Indian-led venture which has been conceptualised by the Prime Minister Modi. He realised that Pakistan is a difficult country to mend its ways. Its polity is completely
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