Thursday, July 31, 2003 Volume 9, Number 42 Page 1 of 9 he High anxiety on T the national front Howey A volatile scenario for Bush, Dems By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis The final paragraph in an op-ed piece by Steven E. Schier in The Hill newspaper was fascinating: “Whether or Political not they succeed, the Bush presidency promises to enter the history books as one of the most politically ambitious of all time -- because of its efforts to reshape the entire political Report landscape.” The election year 2004 is now only five months and a The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink day away. Within seven months, we will probably know the Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is name of the Democratic presidential nominee. How the bold an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the political process in Indiana. and radical Bush presidency and his challenger take shape over the next several months will certainly impact the Brian A. Howey, publisher Indiana political environment, whether there is a full-fledged Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer state tax revolt or not. Jack E. Howey, editor And there has been great anxiety expressed over the last several days within both the Democratic and Republican The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-968-0487 parties. Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 On Monday, the Bush campaign was warning the [email protected] GOP faithful that 2004 will be more like the 2000 cliff-hang- www.howeypolitics.com er than a Nixon or Reagan re-elect landslide. “Our numbers look good today," Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. told Republican National Committee members at the end of a four-day meeting in New York (Washington Times). “These Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or numbers will come down. We must prepare for an election fax; $450 annually including the HPR Daily every bit as close as the 2000 election.” Wire. Call 317-254-1533 or 254-0535. Domestically, Bush has put most of his marbles in the © 2003, The Howey Political Report. All rights three tax cuts with the latest U.S. Treasury checks featuring reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or an Austin, Texas, origin and a slogan “Tax relief for reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- America’s families” going out this week. tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without But with towering deficits, a rising jobless rate, and consent of the publisher.
“Am I comfortable with the way it was por- Ticker: Pastrick talks about judge p. 2 trayed? Let me put it this way: I wasn’t think- McIntosh feels like it’s 1994 p. 4 ing about it.” - Indianapolis Mayor Bart Horse Race 03: Tax crisis p. 6 Peterson, on how 75 percent of his 2004 budget Horse Race 04: Demo unity ticket p. 7 cuts won’t save taxpayers money, to the Columnists: Colwell, Howey, Cook p. 8 Indianapolis Star Perhaps We Wander: Sen. Hartke p. 9 Thursday, July 31, 2003 Page 2 of 9
the smallest pay raises since the mid- committing American taxpayers to tens of 1970s, the economy is no slam dunk for billions of dollars in aid over the next four the president. At Wednesday morning’s years.” Rose Garden press conference, President The White House needs “the disci- Bush was asked why his program hasn’t pline of actually constructing a budget for worked, despite what he termed a “shal- four years,” said Lugar. “We need to NBC/WSJ POLL HAS BUSH low recession.” Bush recited the litany of begin to fill in the blanks. We cannot have AT 56 PERCENT: President recession, terror, war and corporate scan- continuous surprises, a sort of gotcha trail, Bush had a 56 to 38 percent dals before saying, “There are hopeful as we keep running out of money.” approve/disapprove rating signs. Over next 18 months, most econo- in the latest NBC/Wall Street Easton reported, “Lugar's remarks Journal poll. President mists believe we’ll see positive growth.” were striking because he is a respected Clinton stood at 47 percent Such answers were a far cry from the figure on foreign affairs who staunchly in a July 1995 poll by the “dead or alive” or “bring ‘em on” defi- supported the war and generally avoids same group. ance he has projected during his two wars. publicly challenging fellow Republicans in the White House. Lugar said political ECONOMY GROWS AT 2.4 Lugar’s warnings continue considerations had prevented the adminis- PERCENT IN 2ND QUAR- Then there is the war in Iraq. Here, tration from adequately preparing for the TER: The U.S. economy, lift- task of rebuilding postwar Iraq: Any offi- ed by consumer and busi- it is a Bush ally, U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar, cial planning in the months leading up to ness spending, broke out of sounding the most urgent alarms. News- the doldrums and grew at week’s coverage under the headline of “A war would have suggested that the admin- an annual rate of 2.4 per- Billion Dollars a Week” and 10 pages of istration had already decided to invade, cent in the second quarter thumbnail photos of slain U.S. soldiers regardless of the outcome of the United of 2003, the strongest show- featured Lugar heading out to the Bagh- Nations weapons inspections, he said. ing in nearly a year dad airport on a highway in a Humvee last “We couldn't look as if we were prepar- (Associated Press). The June. An accompanying general yelled at ing, so we weren't preparing,” Lugar said improvement in the gross an exposed topside machine gunner to at the Carnegie Endowment for Internat- domestic product in the duck. Lugar was told that Iraqis some- ional Peace. April to June quarter, Newsweek reported that the Bush reported by the Commerce times loop wires down from overpasses to Department Thursday, came decapitate the exposed top-side GIs. administration’s costs for war are faulty after two straight quarters Newsweek reported, “By the time due to a near physical collapse of the Iraq of lousy economic growth. Lugar’s trip to Iraq was over, the Indiana power grid, its oil industry, and the loot- GDP increased at just a 1.4 Republican worried the American people ing and burning of most Iraqi ministries, percent pace in both the were being blindsided, too, by the true which means that reconstruction must final quarter of 2002 and the costs in blood and treasure of a war that begin from scratch. first three months of this has yet to end.” With Deputy Defense Secretary year. Lugar was quoted saying, “This Paul Wolfowitz seated before him, Lugar idea that we will be in Iraq just as long as noted, “Because of some combination of DANIELS DOESN’T OFFER SPECIFICS: Republican we need to and not a day more is rubbish! bureaucratic inertia, political caution, and candidate for governor can- We’re going to be there a long time. unrealistic expectations left over from didate Mitch Daniels steered Where does the money come from? How before the war, we do not appear to be clear of specifics as his RV is it to be disbursed, and by whom?” confident about our course in Iraq. Our tour of all 92 counties This past week, chairing his Senate national sense of commitment and confi- pulled into Lake County for Foreign Relations Committee, Lugar was dence must approximate what we demon- the first time (Steve Walsh, steadily more critical of the Bush adminis- strated during the Berlin Airlift -- a sense Post-Tribune). So far, the tration. A Boston Globe article by Nina J. that we could achieve the impossible, celebrated policy wonk has Easton began, “Sen. Richard G. Lugar despite short time constraints and severe put few specific proposals criticized the Bush administration's recon- conditions of risk and consequence. We on the table. He said Wednesday he would prefer struction efforts in Iraq yesterday as hap- still lack a comprehensive plan for how to hazard and called on the president to acquire sufficient resources for the opera- Continued on page 3 request supplemental spending legislation tions in Iraq and how to use them to maxi- Page 3 of 9 Thursday, July 31, 2003 mum effect.” Party has an important choice to make: And Lugar added, “A major Do we want to vent or do we want to gov- untapped resource with the potential for ern?" asked Sen. Evan Bayh, chairman of changing the dynamics on the ground in the Democratic Leadership Council at its Iraq is the international community. The national conversation in Philadelphia United States needs to build a new coali- (New York Times). “The administration is tion to win the peace. Involving other being run by the far right. The Democratic to wait to see how reassess- nations in Iraq will help reassure the Iraqi Party is in danger of being taken over by ment shakes out before people that the results of our nation-build- the far left,” he said. designing a plan to deal ing efforts are legitimate. At the same When a reporter asked whether with property taxes. On time, international involvement will Democratic woes were a result of Repub- whether Lake County was unfairly penalized when the reduce the burdens on the U.S. taxpayer lican attacks or Democratic mistakes, casino admission tax rev- and help maintain the American people's Bayh responded with a curt two-word enue was capped in the political support. Just as we called upon answer that silenced the room. “Assisted compromise that brought our military strength to win the war, we suicide.” dockside gambling, Daniels need to call on the strength of our diplo- It was a broadside aimed at Dean, said he didn’t know. “I macy to overcome pre-war disagreements who has emerged as a McGovern/ don’t want this to turn into a with allies and reach a new consensus on McCarthy anti-war Democrat to whom nerd fest. This campaign is how to ensure that Iraq emerges as a Republicans love to attach the word “lib- going to be about people,” peaceful and stable nation. We may need a eral.” This despite Dean’s gubernatorial he said. The specifics are new U.N. Security Council resolution, or coming, he said. The cam- tenure as a fiscal conservative with an paign is working on posi- some other form of international commit- endorsement from the NRA. tion papers, starting with an ment to increase assistance to Iraq.” A Zogby Poll of Democrats economic plan. He has set Wolfowitz responded in the classic revealed that 69 percent believe Bush will no time frame for when it is Bush cowboy mentality, “Speed is of the be re-elected. A DLC poll by Mark Penn going to be released. “This essence here and the U.N. isn't always revealed a significant erosion of men from is a 15-month race,” he speedy.” the party. Penn said his polling indicates said. When Bush was asked about it by that since President Clinton left office in BALBONI DOES: Former St. the press on Wednesday, he said, “In my 2001, more Americans believe Democrats Joseph County Democratic line of work, it’s always best to produce are the party of big government and high- Chairman Ideal Balboni died results and I understand that. I believe it er taxes and he said Bush's handling of the this morning at age 93. “He will. I never expected a Thomas Jefferson war on terrorism has opened up a huge was one of the great politi- to emerge in Iraq in a 90-day period. I’m gap with Democrats on who is more trust- cians of our time,” said cur- confident history will prove we made the ed on issues of national security. “If rent Chairman Butch right decision.” Democrats can't close the security gap, Morgan. then they can't be competitive in the next Combustible politics election,” said Penn. PASTRICK RAISES MONEY AT ILLINOIS TRACK: Far Within hours of that quote, Bush An unstable economy and a war from the grit of East with mounting costs, casualties, along was bracing the nation for credible threats Chicago and nowhere near with the lack of a long-term plan is a of a new wave of Al Qaeda airline attacks, the drama playing out in a recipe for political disaster. and an NBC News investigation reported Crown Point courtroom, that the hunt for Al Qaeda has been East Chicago Mayor Robert Democratic suicide angst degraded due to the war in Iraq. Pastrick reveled with his supporters Wednesday. While some Republicans fretted They sipped fine wines and and others strutted, national Democrats HPR’s prognosis dined on pricey hors d’oeu- were equally anxious, particularly with The high degree of anxiety in both vres, betting on horses at the populist emergence of former Vermont parties is reasonable. There is great vola- Arlington Park racetrack. Gov. Howard Dean as a top-tier candidate. tility on the national front and any “con- Pastrick rented two luxury “It is our belief that the Democratic ventional wisdom” is highly suspect. continued on page 4 Thursday, July 31, 2003 Page 4 of 9 For McIntosh, it feels like 1994 By MARK SCHOEFF JR. that Indiana needs a new constitutional WASHINGTON - If you listen to amendment, a taxpayer bill of rights that David McIntosh talk about the race for limits the ability to spend money so that governor, it sounds as if he's the under- we don't have these deficits.” suites at the track, and dog. Although the former congressman A signature Reagan issue was tax about 50 people came for lost to incumbent Democratic Gov. Frank cuts. Now that some Hoosiers are being the afternoon fund-raiser, O'Bannon in 2000, McIntosh harkens hammered with reassessments that double reportedly at $1,000 a per- back to his maiden congressional cam- their tax bill in some cases, McIntosh son. Among them were paign in 1994 when discussing his current intends to remind voters that he focused businessmen, lawyers and run for the governor's mansion. on property tax reform in the 2000 race. other Pastrick political sup- “This time I get to be me. It feels a He launched a commercial this week, porters, but few elected offi- cials. They loosened their lot like 1994, when nobody knew who we nearly 10 months before the primary, that ties and raised a drink to a were. We came from behind and won the urges people to call in with their tax com- man whose political career race,” he said in addressing a crowd of plaints. is being threatened by a more than 60 supporters at a fundraiser in The commercial begins with an recount challenge. Never in Washington on July 22. “We ran on strong elderly woman looking into the camera Pastrick’s 32-year career ideas and a vision.” and saying, "David McIntosh was right. has so much remained in McIntosh may be feeling like the He warned that our taxes would go up. doubt so long after a prima- insurgent candidate because the Indiana Those government boys in Indianapolis ry. Pastrick granted an GOP politerati are coming out in favor of sure lied to us." McIntosh also appears on interview after some atten- dees complained to security Mitch Daniels. Since Daniels kicked off camera, saying, "As governor, I'll lead the about an uninvited visitor his campaign for the gubernatorial nomi- fight to clean up Indiana's tax mess." lingering near the suites. nation in June, he has garnered substantial The commercial was partly the idea But Pastrick, advised of the media coverage and embarked on a string of McIntosh supporter J. Patrick Rooney, Post-Tribune’s presence, of lucrative fundraisers. who urged the McIntosh campaign to cut shooed away security and But McIntosh is not exactly buried the commercial and get it on the air while chatted on a couch just out- in the pack. A recent poll conducted by people are still opening their tax bills. side the rented suite as the Indiana University Public Opinion “There's a term, carpe diem,” said waiters tidied up inside. The Laboratory on behalf of WISH-TV Rooney. “You should make use of the mayor said he isn’t con- showed he had a 73-42 percent name ID anger of the people. The people are really cerned with how this recount case has made his lead over Daniels. upset. If he gets out there clearly on the city look, as “I’m only His previous attempt to become the property tax issue, it's his issue.” The ad responsible for running the state's chief executive taught him a few runs on network and cable TV in city. I’m not worrying about lessons, McIntosh said. The first is that Indianapolis this week and next week in what other people are the soft-spoken but staunch conservative nine other counties where tax bills have doing.” He complained that has to reveal more of his personal side to been sent. reports in the Post-Tribune, the voters. “They didn't know faith in God “Over the next six months, we'll independent of what’s come was the most important thing in my life,” have a tax revolt because people are feel- out in court, haven’t made he said. ing they've been lied to and misled,” said him “look good. But our day McIntosh. is coming,” he said. “We’re going to let everything Property Taxes Redux come out in court. I believe Conservatism also will be reflected Indianapolis Elite this judge is fair and honest in his policy stances. “I'm going to stand His main issue might be the same, and will do the right thing. up and say we need to fix our property tax but McIntosh will change his tactics this That’s what I expect.” mess,” said McIntosh, a former aide to time around. He said that the past several President Reagan and then-Vice President GOP gubernatorial nominees suffered MUNCIE CANDIDATE GIVES AWAY GAS: There's nothing Dan Quayle. “I'm going to stand up and from being seen as the Indianapolis candi- better than a free raffle, say I'm unabashedly pro-life and I'll date. “We don't want to use the same defend those values. And stand up and say playbook that hasn't worked. Ours is continued on page 5 Page 5 of 9 Thursday, July 31, 2003 going to be different. We're going to cam- McIntosh in 2004 shortly after the 2000 paign in the rest of the state and come election. “My only ambition in this job is back to Marion County and the doughnuts to be a man of my word, and that's why and win those, too,” he said. In a riposte I'm here,” said Pence. to the phrase coined by President Bush, But Pence doesn't relish being on "My man Mitch," McIntosh says, “I'm the the other side of the Bush White House, especially when the prize is man from Muncie.” which has been a political Medici for him. gasoline (Muncie Star But Daniels won't let his rival paint “I'll confess that it is uncomfortable,” said Press). Dan MacDonald, him into the capital city corner. “That is Pence. “But Indiana has an embarrass- Republican candidate for a an obvious sort of tired charge that is ment of riches in this primary. I still kind Muncie City Council at-large often made,” said deputy Daniels cam- of wish there were two jobs, and some seat, and his supporters paign manager Ellen Whitt. Daniels is in people think there are.” Pence met with handed out hundreds of raf- fle tickets at the Delaware the midst of a statewide RV tour in which Daniels in his Capitol Hill office on July County Fair last week for 17. He said that Daniels did not ask him he'll visit all 92 counties. “It isn't an $20 gift certificates, Indianapolis-based campaign,” said Whitt. to switch his allegiance. “There isn't any- redeemable at local Hoosier “He's taking the campaign to the state, one in public life that I respect more than Pete convenience stores. and he's serious about that. He's going to Mitch,” he said. MacDonald said the free raf- be on the road the whole time.” fle represented "a simple Mitch's Muscle? show of support to the citi- zens," along with a Although the White House may be Battle of Washington response to high gasoline Outside the borders of the state, keeping a low profile, McIntosh indicated prices. though, another battle is brewing between that some of Daniels' state advocates McIntosh and Daniels. This one is for the might be trying to intimidate potential AGUILERA ACKNOWL- hearts and minds of the political powers in McIntosh supporters. “They have to be EDGES ‘MISTAKES’ WITH Washington. Daniels ostensibly has the careful not to project that image,” RESIDENCY: State Rep. support of President Bush. But McIntosh McIntosh said. “The Republicans are an John Aguilera and his wife have formally declared they is not ceding ground there. independent lot. Most of them feel that in the primary you present (the candidates) are Munster residents on at He portrayed the July 22 fundraiser least two occasions (Steve and let Republicans make their choices.” at the Capitol Hill Club, where he raised Patterson, Post-Tribune). between $150,000 and $200,000, as an The Daniels campaign denies it is When they enrolled their indication of Washington strength. “I using strong-arm tactics. "There's no sort oldest daughter in Munster think it means that the smart money in of intimidation going on," said Whitt. "We schools, they claimed a Washington knows that we're going to are busy forwarding Mitch's candidacy." Munster address as their win," said McIntosh, who believes he'll home. When they filed for a need to raise about close to $12 million Ready to be Governor property tax credit for their primary home, they filed it for the race. The Daniels campaign has set No matter what's occurring in hand- for Munster. But Aguilera, a goal of $15 million. to-hand combat among partisans, D-East Chicago, is sternly Among the "special guests" listed McIntosh believes his experience in 2000 denying a Post-Tribune on board at the fundraiser were five sena- puts him ahead of Daniels in his grasp of report that he is raising his tors and 43 House members. None of the state issues. “He's hesitant. He's wonder- family outside the city and senators showed up. Several of McIntosh's ing what expectations (people have of outside his legislative dis- former House colleagues did, demonstrat- him),” McIntosh said of Daniels. “There's trict. Aguilera owns a home ing a bond among the class of 1994. A a difference between state and federal in East Chicago, which he claims is his full-time resi- Hoosier member of that class, GOP Rep. issues. I was like that in 2000, and it came dence, and he owns a home Mark Souder, was listed as a “special across to voters. He may be a good guy, in Munster, which he says is guest,” but did not attend. but he's not ready to be governor. And a weekend getaway. But The Indiana congressman who now I'm ready to be governor. I feel it in School Town of Munster replaced McIntosh in the House, Rep. my bones, and I'm going to campaign that records show Aguilera’s Mike Pence, attended the fundraiser. He way.” said that he committed to supporting continued on page 6 Thursday, July 31, 2003 Page 6 of 9 2003 Racing Form TRENDLINE: How potent is the property tax revolt likely to be? Newspaper reports out of Grant and Bartholomew counties suggest that the public’s ire is going to extend well beyond Indianapolis, Bloomington and oldest daughter is regis- Evansville. Gubernatorial candidate David McIntosh reports that it is a “rising tered at the family’s home in tidal wave.” But how it plays at the bal- the 8200 block of Oakwood lot box remains to be seen because the Avenue, Munster. And Lake lines of demarcation are not confined to County auditor’s office records show that last year, one political party. Indianapolis Mayor Aguilera filed paperwork Bart Peterson might have been more vulnerable, had not City-County Council requesting a homestead Republicans signed off on the spending binge. property tax exemption for In the legislature, the plan was carried by largely Senate Republicans and his house in Munster — an House Democrats. My colleague Ed Feighenbaum at Indiana Legislative Insight exemption that can only be applied to the house he is predicting that previously safe urban Democratic seats in Lake County may considers his primary come into play once the anger takes a tangible form. The ol’ Horse agrees with home. Though Aguilera ini- that assessment. But if it remains largely an urban issue in Democratic districts, tially denied having a home- Senate Republicans will have little impetus to seek legislative remedies next stead exemption in Munster, winter, figuring the crisis will pave the way for the first Republican governor in he later admitted to it, also acknowledging his daughter 16 years. That’s why Senate Finance Chairman Larry Borst’s seat becomes a is improperly enrolled in linchpin. If he begins feeling real heat in Perry Township from challenger Brent Munster schools. “We’re Waltz in the May 2004 primary, the Senate could be motivated to act in a “save working to take care of the old Dog Doctor” mode, though there is a significant percentage of Borst’s these issues,” Aguilera told own caucus who won’t feel too compelled to come to his rescue. the Post-Tribune on Tuesday. “We’ve made mis- The biggest motivator for the legislature could come in the fall mayoral takes, but we’re doing elections. If enough of a “throw the bums out” dynamic lashes out indiscrimi- everything we can do to nantly at incumbent mayors and council members, that will send a chill through- clear it all up. I’ve not inten- out the paranoid House and Senate where members hold a deep fear of their tionally violated anything. own constituents. Numerous city sources are telling HPR that it could happen. My integrity is intact. I remain committed to East Chicago and to raising my family there.” 2003 Indiana Mayoral Races East Chicago Mayoral: Republican: None. Democrat: Mayor Robert Pastrick, NEW DUTIES FOR LONG Councilman George Pabey. 1999 Primary Results: Pastrick 5,772, Stephen Stiglich 3,790. 1999 THOMPSON: Former General Results: Pastrick (D) 3,027, Acost (R) 629. 2003 Forecast: The trial in LaPorte Congressswoman Dr. Jill County continues, with Judge King sending out warrants to bring in Pastrick lieutenants who, Long Thompson, once rounded up, will take the Fifth. We sense that Pastrick is in the greatest danger of his will become CEO and career because a no-nonsense judge without Lake County ties is calling the shots. And there’s Senior Fellow of the been enough evidence of dead voters lying around the same address in suspect precincts to give National Center for Food credibility to the Pabey challenge. This could be the most riveting political trial of the century. and Agricultural Policy in Court Status: LEANS PABEY. Washington effective Aug. Fort Wayne Mayoral: Republican: Linda Buskirk. Democrat: Mayor Graham 1. The center is a non-prof- Richard. 1995 Results: Helmke 21,909, Essex (D) 11,033, Kempf (L) 1,029. 1999 Results: it,independent organization Richard (D) 21,607, Buskirk (R) 21,531. 2003 Forecast: Buskirk released a comprehensive 40- founded in 1984. In recent page platform titled “We Can Do Better.” Buskirk starts the platform by saying, “Fort Wayne is years, the center has been facing an economic crisis. Thanks to political posturing, a business as usual mentality, global extensively involved in poli- economic pressures, and the failure of city and state governments to address our problems, we cy analysis and education are witnessing record job losses and a failing economy.” Buskirk notes that Fort Wayne has lost Page 7 of 9 Thursday, July 31, 2003
16.8 percent of its manufacturing jobs -- 13,000 -- since June 1998. She also points to record bankruptcies, falling wages, and the exodus of young people. Her program focuses on reten- tion and expansion of existing businesses. She wants to “raise the accountability of local eco- nomic development. Most significantly, in Chapter 5, Buskirk writes, “I emphasize the need to promote cooperation between local units of government, even to the point of merger.” Wow! Folks are starting to listen to the ol’ Horse. General Status: Leans Buskirk. Indianapolis Mayoral: Republican: Treasurer Greg Jordan. Democrat: Mayor Bart Peterson. 1995 Results: Goldsmith (R) 64,209, Jimison (D) 39,539, Dillon (L) 7,175. related to a succession of 1999 Results: Peterson (D) 102,870, Gilroy (R) 83,044, Horning (L) 7,772, Gibson (OP) farm bills, international 2,145. 2003 Forecast: Peterson announced that he is slashing $11.8 million from the 2004 trade, domestic food budget. But he awknowledged to the Indianapolis Star today that 75 percent of that money for policy issues, pesticide use IndyGo is simply an accounting shift that won’t reduce taxes. These have to be surreal days for and biotechnology. the mayor. Once thought to be the cornerstone of his re-elect campaign, the 1999 “Peterson Plan” has receded into the battlefield smog of a property tax rebellion. We figure the fall media DEAN LEADS KERRY IN campaign is probably undergoing a major overhaul to reflect the current brutal realities. As NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL: we’ve said in the past, we still don’t perceive Peterson to be in deep political trouble at this Democrats Howard Dean and point. General Status: Likely Peterson. John Kerry are deadlocked in a New Hampshire poll of likely voters in the presiden- Indiana 2004Gubernatorial tial primary (Associated Press). The Franklin Pierce Governor 2004: Republican: Mitch Daniels, David McIntosh, Eric Miller, College survey showed Dean Petersburg Mayor Randy Harris. Democrat: Joe Andrew, State Sen. Vi Simpson. 1996 at 22 percent, and Kerry "at Results: O’Bannon (D) 1,075,342, Goldsmith (R) 997,505, Dillon (L) 35,261. 2000 Results: 21 percent. O’Bannon (D) 1,230,345, McIntosh (R) 906,492, Horning (L) 38,686. 2004 Forecast: McIntosh goes up on the air with a populist property tax revolt commercial, inviting angry citi- FLOYD COUNTY COMMIS- zens to call his campaign with their horror stories. It’s a smart move on his part. Another is to SIONER PREDICTS GOV- pick up on HPR’s call for a dramatic restructuring of government. McIntosh is calling for ERNMENT CONSOLIDATION: elimination of township government. He said that the idea is resonating in urban areas. Places Floyd County Commissioner such as Wabash County, which has two small towns (Wabash and North Manchester) fret about John Reisert says a forecast their local needs being met. McIntosh notes that while he wants to see caps on spending, of slow population growth “Local governments still have to be able to accomplish their missions.” McIntosh is beginning for Floyd County could push to engage Daniels, taking issue with his I-69 stance of more study. “We absolutely need I-69. It city and county governments has to be our No. 1 infrastructure priority for the state,” McIntosh said during a Monday cam- to merge more departments paign event at Newburgh Cafe (John Martin, Evansville Courier & Press). “I'm familiar with in an effort to reduce costs the issue from running last time. I don't think the folks in Indianapolis know how important in the face of a stagnant tax this is for Southern Indiana.” Daniels has picked up the endorsements of 40 Republican county base (Louisville Courier- chairs, including Allen County Chairman Steve Shine. “He has tremendous political acumen Journal). One of the things and I think he will use what he has learned in both the public and private sectors to manage the Reisert said may have to be affairs of the state," Shine said. Don’t put too much stock in that statistics. In 1996, Rex Early considered is combining the had two-thirds of the county chair endorsements and was still easily defeated by Stephen city and county police Goldsmith. On the Democratic side, Simpson picked up the EMILY’S List endorsement. This departments. But in terms of is significant because it will open up national fundraising resources for her. “They don't get a total merger, he said the involved in races unless they think it's a winnable race,” Simpson said (Mary Beth Schneider, long tradition of independent Indianapolis Star). Andrew had a shrewd comment to the Star: “They don't endorse men.” city and county governments The Fort Wayne Journal Gazette speculated on a potential Democratic union ticket. “Mr. should continue well into the Andrew and the senator have not had a conversation in the last two weeks and our position has future. If the predicted trends been and will remain that the state needs a governor with experience,” Simpson spokesman continue, however, experts Jason Kinney said. “We've offered him the job of lieutenant governor because we think he say changes will have to be should do a reality check.” Andrew explained, “I have had several talks with Vi Simpson but I made. have made a commitment to keep those conversations confidential and private. It is certainly true that many people across the state believe passionately that we would be a great team. But CURLEY MEETS WITH I want to keep any discussions private." General Status: Tossup CROWN POINT REPUBLI- CANS: Lake County
continued on page 8 Thursday, July 31, 2003 Page 8 of 9
Brian Howey, Indianapolis Eye - of panic, a "don’t just stand there, do Here’s my take on the "blame" game. This something" scenario. There was wide- Republican Chairman John spread relief at the Statehouse by just Curley is back in the good looks like it was a classic over-reach by about everyone when the deal was struck. graces of Crown Point’s key business groups, namely the Indiana GOP precinct organization Chamber of Commerce and the Indiana (Post-Tribune). He got an Manufacturers Association. Both organi- unexpectedly warm recep- zations, particularly the IMA, which had Charlie Cook, National Journal - tion when he met with about watched more than 100,000 jobs in its The downward drift in President Bush's 15 committeemen sector vanish, knew they had to create a approval ratings that began after the major Wednesday. “It surprised hostilities in Iraq ended on May 1 have me. It was very cordial,” better atmosphere to attract or grow com- said Curley, who days earli- panies. Thus, when Senate Finance continued through July, and, if preliminary er was the target of wide- Chairman Larry Borst drew up the historic numbers hold, even through the killing of spread criticism after he 2002 reforms, the Chamber’s Kevin Saddam Hussein's sons last week. Two forced city GOP Chairman Brinegar and the IMA’s Pat Kiely were at combined July Ipsos US Public Affairs/ Peter Roth to resign. The his elbows. Kiely and Brinegar were Cook Political Report polls of 1,520 regis- move led longtime doing what they were paid to do, which is tered voters indicated that Bush's overall Republicans to complain to lobby to create the best business environ- approval ratings had drifted to 57 percent the state Republican party, ment they could for their constituencies. for the month, down from 61 percent in and some even talked about May (margin of error +/-2.6 percent). forming a separate political Both have been very persuasive over the Keep in mind that in the Decembers of group. But at the mid-week years about how the reforms were essen- precinct meeting the focus tial to creating a new generation of jobs. their third year in office, Presidents was on party unity. “It was a But the art of governance is always a Nixon, Carter, Reagan, Bush I and Clinton very productive meeting,” squall line, with the various special inter- all had Gallup job approval ratings of said Robert Kerr, a 9th ests groups pushing against each other for between 50 percent and 54 percent. precinct committeeman. the best possible scenarios. The most criti- cal function of Statehouse power brokers SIMPSON TO HONOR Jack Colwell, South Bend Tribune - McCLOSKEY: State Sen. Vi such as Democrat Bauer and Republican "Can you hear me now?" Sen. Richard G. Simpson (and State Rep. Borst is to achieve some sort of equilibri- Lugar could use that line, so familiar from Brian Hasler announced um where the pendulum doesn’t swing too the cell phone commercial, to inquire of they would join other far one way or the other. They were quite President Bush whether he now hears Democratic leaders in co- artful about it in 1997 when big labor Lugar's words of warning about inade- hosting a tribute fundraiser pushed for worker compensation reforms quate planning for after the initial military in honor of their “mentor that in the end didn’t hurt business and success in Iraq. Long before military and friend,” former industry at all despite their fervent opposi- Congressman and action against the regime of Saddam Hus- Bloomington Mayor Frank tion. Obviously, when it came to the 2002 sein -- action Lugar firmly supported -- McCloskey. The fundraiser, tax restructuring, things went too far the chairman of the Senate Foreign Rela- which will benefit toward business and industry. Brinegar, tions Committee repeatedly urged better Democratic mayoral candi- Borst and Kiely can spin it any way they planning for bringing stability and democ- dates and feature personal want and blame "local units of govern- racy to Iraq. He also called for candor tributes from McCloskey’s ment." The problem is that cities and about the cost and length of occupation. former colleagues and counties are under the gun on a plethora The Bush administration turned a deaf ear. staffers, will be held during of "unfunded mandates" coming out of Easy now to see why. Defense Secretary the Indiana Democratic Editors Association meeting Indianapolis and Washington. The natural Donald H. Rumsfeld at that time was in French Lick. Indiana foes of the Chamber and IMA, such as the playing down the cost. Reconstruc-tion State Party Chair Joe Indiana State Teachers Association and falters. Guerrilla war continues. Rumsfeld Hogsett has agreed to serve big labor, had joined in a coalition seeking admits costs have climbed to $4 billion a as honorary chair of the the reforms. This was almost a movement month. Oil trickles rather than gushes. Page 9 of 9 Thursday, July 31, 2003
The Great Dove drums were beating in Washington as a FRENCH LICK - My lone cam- prelude to the American invasion of Iraq, event paign experience came back in 1970 as a and here I was sitting with the man who had lead the peace movement. “I was the Young Republican in Betty Rendel’s MONROE COUNTY TAX RATES only senator who spoke at the Morator- Miami County GOP. U.S. Rep. Dick WILL GO UP: The cost of car- Roudebush was the political source of my ium,” Hartke recalled. “The Kennedys ing for troubled kids from fail- teenage affiliation, and the villain was wouldn’t do it. I was the great dove.” ing families is about to get U.S. Sen. Vance Hartke. Hartke was the first Democratic almost $3 million more expen- Hartke was a liberal Democrat rep- senator to break with President Johnson sive for Monroe County proper- resenting a generally conservative on Vietnam, on Jan. 8, 1965. “It hurt me ty taxpayers next year. And Republican state. My hometown of Peru back home,” he said. “People have not close to $2.5 million of the added money will have to was Nixon territory, an Air Force town, forgiven me to this day in Indiana for breaking with my own party. They said it come from higher property and most of us supported the war in Viet- taxes, to the tune of some- should be, ‘My country right or wrong’ nam. Hartke was one of the first Demo- where around $5 for every crats to split with President Johnson over and I would say, ‘No, that’s not the $10,000 of a home's taxable Vietnam, and was referred derisively as phrase. It should be ‘My Country right or assessed value (Bloomington the latter part of “Senators Bayh and wrong, may she always be right, but if she Herald-Times). So if your Bought.” Hartke won in 1970, by about is wrong, put her right.’ Now look, even house's taxable assessed 4,000 votes, or less than a vote per McNamara says it was wrong.” value after homestead credits precinct despite my efforts of distributing As for the looming war with Iraq, and deductions and your mort- emry boards and yard signs. Hartke said, “I agree with Armey. I agree gage deduction is $100,000, you'd be looking at something I learned a lot of lessons from the with Bayh. I agree with Lugar. Before you ask someone to fight for their country, you in the area of a $50 tax hike. Nixon years: that politicians, even the And the bad news for property have to define a noble cause.” president, could lie and break laws. As a tax payers doesn't stop there. college student in the mid-1970s, the A year later, it was the man who County Auditor Barb Clark said entire “domino theory” ruse was revealed. defeated Harkte - Lugar - pressing the Wednesday the Monroe County Twenty years later, LBJ’s tapes revealed president to define the scope and cost of Council is going to have to set that from the get-go, he and people like the “noble cause.” Lugar was gracious in the 2004 property tax levies for Defense Secretary Robert McNamara his views of Hartke: “For the past two each of two local agencies — knew that Vietnam was unwinnable. decades, Vance Hartke has offered con- the Center for Behavioral None of this was enough to save gratulations and encouragement for all to Health and the Stone Belt Center — at about $640,000 Hartke from defeat at the hands of Dick hear as I tackled difficult foreign policy each instead of the $405,000 and national security problems.” Lugar in 1976. Hartke largely faded into each the Monroe County obscurity as a Washington lawyer, save As I left Hartke’s company last Council and commissioners for one minor brush with campaign laws a summer, he handed me a small velvet had budgeted for them. decade ago during the push for casinos pouch with a U.S. Senate keychain inside. (part of his violations were singing and My first political rival had become at long playing the piano for voters). last a friend. Last summer, I found myself sitting Hartke’s voice still echoes after face to face with Vance Hartke for an hour Andy Jacobs finished his IDEA keynote in the ornate lobby of the French Lick last August: “I’m getting tired of presi- Springs Resort. He was pushing the 8th dents in either party killing our kids to get CD candidacy of his nephew, Bryan (com- points in the polls.” At the end of the plete with straw hats), and even at 83 speech, Hartke’s voice could be heard years old, he was vibrant, funny and throughout the hall: “Andy! Andy! That reeled off story after story. The war was a great speech!”