Table 36: 2026 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 221,539 £1,242.0 50,954 £285.7 46,018 £147.0 170,585 £956.4 77% -£523.7 -£515.6 Barnet 377,426 £2,569.3 158,519 £1,079.1 105,753 £1,149.1 218,907 £1,490.2 58% £738.0 £742.8 Bexley 218,607 £1,405.9 65,582 £421.8 24,884 £482.3 153,025 £984.1 70% -£80.0 -£75.0 Brent 291,222 £1,690.4 66,981 £388.8 86,317 £732.9 224,241 £1,301.6 77% -£179.9 -£149.7 Bromley 303,100 £2,164.1 166,705 £1,190.3 68,714 £431.6 136,395 £973.8 45% £648.0 £671.5 Camden 224,386 £1,679.1 31,414 £235.1 134,278 £478.4 192,972 £1,444.1 86% -£730.6 -£262.4 City of London 13,282 £144.7 3,985 £43.4 429,119 £200.7 9,297 £101.3 70% £142.8 £1,918.5 Croydon 335,241 £2,227.2 224,611 £1,492.2 157,680 £1,023.3 110,629 £735.0 33% £1,780.6 £1,859.0 Ealing 334,939 £2,080.4 90,433 £561.7 89,052 £477.1 244,505 £1,518.7 73% -£479.9 -£465.0 Enfield 285,438 £1,790.5 122,738 £769.9 32,821 £177.6 162,700 £1,020.6 57% -£73.1 -£69.6 Greenwich 281,234 £1,758.7 87,182 £545.2 120,760 £574.2 194,051 £1,213.5 69% -£94.1 -£70.6 Hackney 248,090 £1,446.7 24,809 £144.7 85,011 £267.7 223,281 £1,302.1 90% -£889.7 -£762.4 Hammersmith and Fulham 196,299 £1,370.3 29,445 £205.5 410,956 £813.9 166,854 £1,164.7 85% -£145.3 -£15.2 Haringey 249,583 £1,552.8 67,387 £419.3 158,291 £752.9 182,196 £1,133.6 73% £38.6 £43.7 Harrow 214,140 £1,356.2 92,080 £583.2 45,678 £309.1 122,060 £773.0 57% £119.2 £127.3 Havering 232,961 £1,510.7 93,184 £604.3 30,222 £690.8 139,776 £906.4 60% £388.7 £407.8 Hillingdon 246,529 £1,557.0 78,889 £498.2 39,482 £962.8 167,640 £1,058.7 68% £402.3 £440.0 Hounslow 243,111 £1,595.4 80,227 £526.5 73,409 £616.4 162,884 £1,068.9 67% £73.9 £97.2 Islington 212,913 £1,531.6 34,066 £245.1 117,312 £428.3 178,847 £1,286.6 84% -£613.2 -£476.5 Kensington and Chelsea 178,487 £1,488.9 66,040 £550.9 227,980 £1,035.0 112,447 £938.0 63% £647.9 £1,501.9 Kingston upon Thames 159,085 £1,130.9 92,270 £655.9 54,359 £964.2 66,816 £475.0 42% £1,145.1 £1,168.9 Lambeth 317,221 £2,074.5 57,100 £373.4 79,459 £165.8 260,121 £1,701.1 82% -£1,161.9 -£1,052.1 Lewisham 283,169 £1,781.3 73,624 £463.1 115,913 £498.8 209,545 £1,318.2 74% -£356.2 -£344.0 Merton 193,702 £1,327.3 73,607 £504.4 63,997 £347.2 120,095 £822.9 62% £28.7 £35.8 Newham 337,395 £1,756.1 104,592 £544.4 325,583 £664.3 232,802 £1,211.7 69% -£3.0 £16.9 Redbridge 264,097 £1,598.7 73,947 £447.6 111,794 £807.6 190,149 £1,151.1 72% £104.2 £110.7 Richmond upon Thames 189,272 £1,458.5 13,249 £102.1 61,820 £811.7 176,023 £1,356.4 93% -£442.7 -£413.1 Southwark 348,748 £2,091.7 87,187 £522.9 315,006 £351.8 261,561 £1,568.8 75% -£694.0 -£231.2 Sutton 181,028 £1,261.1 66,980 £466.6 28,071 £459.1 114,047 £794.5 63% £131.2 £135.9 Tower Hamlets 303,827 £1,700.4 57,727 £323.1 246,582 £392.2 246,100 £1,377.3 81% -£662.1 £187.8 Waltham Forest 230,937 £1,403.3 53,115 £322.8 85,529 £600.2 177,821 £1,080.5 77% -£157.6 -£154.5 Wandsworth 314,460 £2,226.3 66,037 £467.5 231,764 £963.7 248,423 £1,758.7 79% -£327.6 -£302.8 Westminster 233,736 £1,980.8 154,266 £1,307.3 1,218,927 £7,661.4 79,470 £673.5 34% £8,295.2 £12,665.4 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,355,204 £48,012.8 865,427 £1,658.5 909,999 £5,940.2 11% £43,731.0 £53,432.5 77

Table 37: 2031 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 242,155 £1,655.9 55,696 £380.8 47,540 £170.1 186,459 £1,275.0 77% -£724.1 -£712.9 Barnet 387,469 £3,203.6 162,737 £1,345.5 107,408 £1,432.2 224,732 £1,858.1 58% £919.7 £926.1 Bexley 222,705 £1,746.9 66,811 £524.1 26,496 £604.8 155,893 £1,222.9 70% -£93.9 -£87.2 Brent 299,030 £2,111.7 68,777 £485.7 88,416 £917.4 230,253 £1,626.0 77% -£222.9 -£182.1 Bromley 308,594 £2,675.8 169,727 £1,471.7 72,271 £546.1 138,868 £1,204.1 45% £813.7 £845.1 Camden 229,827 £2,066.5 32,176 £289.3 137,181 £597.6 197,651 £1,777.2 86% -£890.3 -£256.1 City of London 13,963 £186.0 4,189 £55.8 446,362 £252.2 9,774 £130.2 70% £177.8 £2,585.1 Croydon 340,113 £2,736.3 227,876 £1,833.3 162,130 £1,278.1 112,237 £903.0 33% £2,208.5 £2,312.8 Ealing 343,176 £2,550.3 92,658 £688.6 91,822 £608.9 250,519 £1,861.7 73% -£564.2 -£544.3 Enfield 290,596 £2,220.1 124,956 £954.7 34,503 £230.5 165,640 £1,265.5 57% -£80.4 -£75.7 Greenwich 290,555 £2,206.9 90,072 £684.1 125,606 £734.0 200,483 £1,522.8 69% -£104.6 -£72.8 Hackney 258,714 £1,836.8 25,871 £183.7 88,245 £335.8 232,843 £1,653.1 90% -£1,133.6 -£961.4 Hammersmith and Fulham 202,380 £1,716.2 30,357 £257.4 414,759 £991.1 172,023 £1,458.8 85% -£210.3 -£37.3 Haringey 259,660 £1,928.0 70,108 £520.6 161,333 £937.2 189,552 £1,407.4 73% £50.3 £57.0 Harrow 216,741 £1,671.0 93,199 £718.5 47,622 £381.2 123,542 £952.5 57% £147.3 £158.0 Havering 236,193 £1,866.9 94,477 £746.8 31,957 £853.5 141,716 £1,120.2 60% £480.1 £505.5 Hillingdon 250,650 £1,925.6 80,208 £616.2 42,401 £1,192.0 170,442 £1,309.4 68% £498.8 £548.8 Hounslow 248,535 £1,939.9 82,017 £640.2 76,648 £783.7 166,519 £1,299.7 67% £124.2 £155.4 Islington 220,567 £1,933.3 35,291 £309.3 120,086 £531.0 185,277 £1,624.0 84% -£783.6 -£600.2 Kensington and Chelsea 181,568 £1,809.7 67,180 £669.6 230,541 £1,296.3 114,388 £1,140.1 63% £825.8 £1,973.7 Kingston upon Thames 161,598 £1,388.9 93,727 £805.6 55,979 £1,199.5 67,871 £583.3 42% £1,421.7 £1,453.1 Lambeth 329,962 £2,625.8 59,393 £472.6 80,983 £203.0 270,569 £2,153.1 82% -£1,477.5 -£1,329.5 Lewisham 289,088 £2,214.7 75,163 £575.8 118,562 £620.2 213,925 £1,638.9 74% -£442.9 -£426.6 Merton 197,342 £1,628.6 74,990 £618.9 65,862 £431.4 122,352 £1,009.7 62% £40.6 £50.0 Newham 353,572 £2,243.1 109,607 £695.3 341,518 £849.3 243,965 £1,547.7 69% -£3.1 £24.0 Redbridge 268,459 £1,978.7 75,168 £554.0 116,792 £1,019.8 193,290 £1,424.7 72% £149.2 £158.0 Richmond upon Thames 192,886 £1,804.5 13,502 £126.3 63,377 £1,005.0 179,384 £1,678.2 93% -£546.8 -£507.4 Southwark 367,881 £2,660.0 91,970 £665.0 324,536 £434.3 275,911 £1,995.0 75% -£895.7 -£267.3 Sutton 183,592 £1,550.7 67,929 £573.8 29,502 £568.3 115,663 £977.0 63% £165.1 £171.3 Tower Hamlets 324,161 £2,184.8 61,591 £415.1 256,588 £493.5 262,570 £1,769.7 81% -£861.1 £296.5 Waltham Forest 235,875 £1,750.0 54,251 £402.5 89,304 £752.6 181,624 £1,347.5 77% -£192.4 -£188.3 Wandsworth 323,406 £2,788.0 67,915 £585.5 235,258 £1,179.7 255,491 £2,202.6 79% -£437.4 -£404.6 Westminster 239,931 £2,464.7 158,354 £1,626.7 1,254,085 £9,613.5 81,577 £838.0 34% £10,402.2 £16,287.9

Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,573,890 £59,863.6 891,158 £2,079.9 937,055 £7,406.4 11% £54,537.0 £67,631.7

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Table 38: 2006 Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,648,228 £4,718.2 445,022 £1,273.9 1,687,751 £5,425.2 1,203,207 £3,444.3 73% £3,254.9 £5,610.4 North East 1,344,894 £3,270.6 470,713 £1,144.7 1,073,683 £1,582.0 874,181 £2,125.9 65% £600.8 £1,816.0 South East 1,265,983 £3,389.4 341,815 £915.1 569,451 £1,618.4 924,168 £2,474.3 73% £59.3 £295.7 South West 1,601,231 £4,604.6 752,579 £2,164.2 643,732 £2,058.0 848,653 £2,440.4 53% £1,781.7 £1,918.1 West 1,601,061 £4,379.0 464,308 £1,269.9 906,086 £2,620.6 1,136,753 £3,109.1 71% £781.4 £1,287.8 Greater London 7,461,398 £23,213.0 6,789,126 £21,121.5 781,263 £1,042.1 672,272 £2,091.5 9% £20,072.2 £24,522.2

Table 39: 2011 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,703,215 £5,734.5 459,868 £1,548.3 1,739,843 £6,704.8 1,243,347 £4,186.2 73% £4,066.9 £6,834.6 North East 1,427,786 £4,098.9 499,725 £1,434.6 1,132,296 £1,909.0 928,061 £2,664.3 65% £679.3 £2,110.3 South East 1,314,899 £4,141.0 355,023 £1,118.1 591,594 £1,936.8 959,876 £3,022.9 73% £31.9 £310.6 South West 1,628,898 £5,507.4 765,582 £2,588.5 653,886 £2,464.3 863,316 £2,918.9 53% £2,133.9 £2,290.2 West 1,637,288 £5,260.2 474,813 £1,525.4 929,314 £3,168.7 1,162,474 £3,734.7 71% £959.5 £1,557.8 Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 6,937,599 £26,061.7 807,512 £1,047.2 774,487 £2,710.3 9% £24,398.6 £29,630.6

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Table 40: 2016 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,758,202 £6,750.9 474,715 £1,822.7 1,791,936 £8,013.1 1,283,488 £4,928.1 73% £4,907.7 £8,090.3 North East 1,510,679 £4,927.1 528,738 £1,724.5 1,190,909 £2,217.9 981,941 £3,202.6 65% £739.8 £2,384.7 South East 1,363,814 £4,892.5 368,230 £1,321.0 613,736 £2,262.1 995,584 £3,571.5 73% £11.5 £334.0 South West 1,656,565 £6,410.3 778,586 £3,012.8 664,040 £2,857.5 877,979 £3,397.4 53% £2,472.9 £2,649.0 West 1,673,514 £6,141.3 485,319 £1,781.0 952,543 £3,712.4 1,188,195 £4,360.4 71% £1,133.1 £1,821.0 Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,086,073 £31,551.4 833,761 £1,077.2 876,701 £3,903.6 11% £28,725.0 £34,739.1

Table 41: 2021 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,794,887 £8,529.6 484,619 £2,303.0 1,822,164 £10,157.7 1,310,267 £6,226.6 73% £6,234.1 £10,378.3 North East 1,557,358 £6,305.7 545,075 £2,207.0 1,232,878 £2,795.6 1,012,283 £4,098.7 65% £903.9 £3,069.3 South East 1,399,336 £6,225.0 377,821 £1,680.8 629,507 £2,852.9 1,021,515 £4,544.3 73% -£10.6 £415.2 South West 1,673,287 £8,012.2 786,445 £3,765.8 670,595 £3,579.0 886,842 £4,246.5 53% £3,098.2 £3,326.0 West 1,689,121 £7,644.9 489,845 £2,217.0 962,709 £4,669.4 1,199,276 £5,427.9 71% £1,458.5 £2,353.1 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,262,831 £39,201.8 849,594 £1,620.4 851,157 £4,594.2 10% £36,228.0 £44,085.8

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Table 42: 2026 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,831,572 £10,308.3 494,524 £2,783.2 1,852,392 £12,332.6 1,337,047 £7,525.1 73% £7,590.8 £12,706.5 North East 1,604,037 £7,684.2 561,413 £2,689.5 1,274,848 £3,384.6 1,042,624 £4,994.7 65% £1,079.3 £3,761.5 South East 1,434,858 £7,557.5 387,412 £2,040.5 645,278 £3,441.6 1,047,446 £5,517.0 73% -£34.9 £492.1 South West 1,690,009 £9,614.2 794,304 £4,518.7 677,149 £4,278.4 895,705 £5,095.5 53% £3,701.6 £3,979.8 West 1,704,727 £9,148.4 494,371 £2,653.0 972,874 £5,608.9 1,210,356 £6,495.4 71% £1,766.6 £2,865.0 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,355,204 £48,012.8 865,427 £1,658.5 909,999 £5,940.2 11% £43,731.0 £53,432.5

Table 43: 2031 (Base) Comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,886,765 £12,855.4 509,427 £3,471.0 1,902,840 £15,436.4 1,377,339 £9,384.4 73% £9,522.9 £16,416.4 North East 1,674,376 £9,744.8 586,032 £3,410.7 1,330,061 £4,230.8 1,088,345 £6,334.1 65% £1,307.3 £4,948.7 South East 1,478,824 £9,448.4 399,282 £2,551.1 667,470 £4,309.2 1,079,541 £6,897.3 73% -£37.0 £677.6 South West 1,728,900 £11,927.3 812,583 £5,605.8 693,091 £5,275.2 916,317 £6,321.5 53% £4,559.6 £4,931.0 West 1,742,080 £11,271.6 505,203 £3,268.8 992,210 £6,978.1 1,236,877 £8,002.8 71% £2,244.0 £3,717.7 Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,573,890 £59,863.6 891,158 £2,079.9 937,055 £7,406.4 11% £54,537.0 £67,631.7

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7 STAGE 2B – COMPARISON GOODS FLOORSPACE NEED - FUTURE SCENARIOS

7.1 The key processes are:

• Develop an understanding of the nature, scale and timing of proposed developments. • Incorporate this knowledge into the project model. • Revisit the expenditure figures. • Realign the floorspace needs base analysis.

Analysis of pipeline developments 7.2 The scale and timelines for the major retail developments and redevelopments that are proposed for London over the coming years have been assessed by the GLA and consultants and evaluated by the boroughs in terms of accuracy. The information has been gathered from the public domain, directly from the boroughs, and estimated/modelled in developments for which actual data is not forthcoming. Using the model, Experian then estimated the extent to which the new developments will affect consumer patterns and expenditure flows throughout London. Understanding the nature and scale of these developments will help formulate a picture of how London’s retailing landscape will evolve over the next decade and beyond.

7.3 The following major retail developments are either committed, approved or proposed to commence in the short to medium term:

Table 44: List of proposed major retail developments in London

Scheme Additional comparison Commencement Current Planning floorspace (m2) of initial phase Status White City 121,046 2008 Opened 2008 Stratford 112,000 2011 Under construction Brent Cross 60,776 2012 Application Kingston upon Thames 50,000 2012 Pre-Application Elephant & Castle 48,030 2011 Not started Bromley 38,000 2012 Part of Bromley AAP Croydon 36,707 2011 Permission Battersea Park 30,000 2010 Pre-Application Kings Cross (London) 24,800 2009 Not started Woolwich 22,297 2011 Application

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7.4 A full breakdown of all pipeline developments included within the modelling process can be found within the appendices. Each of the pipeline developments included have been sent through to the boroughs for verification.

7.5 'Initial phase' refers to the expected opening year of the first phase of a centre.' Additional comparison floorspace' refers to the total increase in gross comparison floorspace.

7.6 The 'wish list' of information on each of the developments was:

• Overall size. • Expected breakdown of floorspace by retail, leisure etc. • Expected breakdown of retail floorspace by comparison, convenience etc. • Number of units. • Expected start and completion time.

7.7 This level of detail is not always available. However, this should not detract from the outputs of the gravity model. Gaps in information can be in-filled by basing the likely composition of shopping developments on suitable benchmark centres.

Impact studies 7.8 These studies are essentially the outputs of the gravity modelling exercise. They quantify the extent to which the new developments would affect consumer patterns and expenditure flows throughout London. This involves running the model produced in Stage 2A with the expanded list of possible shopping destinations.

7.9 The retail footprints of the specified centres are redrawn, by factoring in the new retail developments into the model. This has been performed both in isolation (that is, on a development-by-development basis) and as a unified whole (factoring in all the developments together). The attractiveness score of each centre is recalculated based on this revised footprint and used to overwrite the original score in the gravity model.

7.10 The model was used to assess the impact on all centres examined in Stage 2A of the project:

• Effect on flows. • Effect on catchment areas. • Effect on expenditure.

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Modelled scenarios 7.11 The impact studies have been produced in the following ways:

1. Timeline: as a time series looking at each year from 2006-2031. This takes into account the timings and gestation periods of the proposed schemes and provides an impact snapshot at given points in time. 2. Treating each development in isolation – that is, looking at the impact each development will have individually.

7.12 They have been compared to the following base scenario:

‘Baseline’: assumes that there will be no further development in London, but that population, workforce and expenditure will grow according to GLA/Experian forecasts.

7.13 For the purposes of simplicity within the model, the scenarios assume that each development is all built out immediately at the start of the year (the ‘commencement of initial phase’) as opposed to having a mid-year opening and longer phased implementation. This first year matches the expected opening year of the first phase of the centre. The model also assumes instant sales maturity. In reality, the developments will take a number of years to build and for their turnover to mature, causing short- term fluctuations in actual turnover figures.

Turnover estimates (Timeline) 7.14 The following results show snapshot predictions of the expenditure ranking of retail centres in Greater London for 5 years increments to 2031, assuming all major developments listed above and those listed in the appendices.

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Table 45: Timeline turnover estimates 2006-2031 for top 20 retail centres (2031) in Greater London, £m Centre name Classification 2006 2016 2026 2031 estimated projected projected projected turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover, £m £m £m £m West End International 4,179 5,935 9,311 11,852 White City New - 1,205 1,807 2,250 Development Knightsbridge International 842 1,128 1,747 2,211 Stratford Major 129 909 1,412 1,799 Croydon Metropolitan 636 889 1,330 1,663 Kingston Metropolitan 646 864 1,314 1,645 Bromley Metropolitan 444 581 884 1,112 Kings Road Major 338 473 748 957 East Ilford Metropolitan 365 470 727 927 Romford Metropolitan 355 479 729 913 Elephant and District 20 418 657 842 Castle Canary Wharf Major 272 403 640 817 Camden Major 287 394 615 785 Town Sutton Metropolitan 325 418 629 783 Uxbridge Metropolitan 331 414 620 774 Battersea Additional 12 399 604 761 Brent Cross Additional 250 392 601 755 Wood Green Metropolitan 299 390 589 738 Harrow Metropolitan 308 391 586 732 Croydon - Additional 289 372 562 705 Purley Way

7.15 The impact of the proposed new developments on the Greater London ranking of existing centres can be seen in the following table, which charts the change in relative position over 2006-2031.

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Table 46: Timeline change in London comparison turnover ranking, 2006-2031 Centre name Class Rank 2006 Rank 2031 Change in rank 2006- 2031 West End International 1 1 No Change White City Additional - 2 - Knightsbridge International 2 3 -1 Stratford Major 40 4 36 Croydon Metropolitan 4 5 -1 Kingston Metropolitan 3 6 -3 Bromley Metropolitan 5 7 -2 Kings Road East Major 8 8 No Change Ilford Metropolitan 6 9 -3 Romford Metropolitan 7 10 -3 Elephant and Castle District 216 11 205 Canary Wharf Major 15 12 3 Camden Town Major 14 13 1 Sutton Metropolitan 10 14 -4 Uxbridge Metropolitan 9 15 -6 Battersea Additional 278 16 262 Brent Cross Additional 19 17 2 Wood Green Metropolitan 12 18 -6 Harrow Metropolitan 11 19 -8 Croydon - Purley Way Additional 13 20 -7

Turnover estimates – key developments 7.16 The following major developments have been assessed to assess their impact on existing centres within Greater London:

1. Stratford. 2. White City. 3. Elephant & Castle. 4. Battersea. 5. Brent Cross

7.17 A summary of the results from each scenario can be seen on the following pages. Table 47 to Table 56 provide the results at borough and sub-region level.

86

Table 47: 2011 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 177,024 £566.2 38,945 £124.6 46,050 £117.9 138,079 £441.6 78% -£199.2 -£194.7 Barnet 344,404 £1,314.5 154,982 £591.5 109,632 £674.0 189,422 £723.0 55% £542.5 £545.2 Bexley 214,928 £776.3 62,329 £225.1 24,643 £293.6 152,599 £551.2 71% -£32.5 -£29.7 Brent 279,262 £930.6 67,023 £223.4 87,031 £431.8 212,239 £707.3 76% -£52.1 -£35.1 Bromley 298,458 £1,209.8 158,183 £641.2 69,377 £302.3 140,275 £568.6 47% £374.9 £388.4 Camden 206,239 £885.6 26,811 £115.1 131,228 £293.5 179,428 £770.5 87% -£361.9 -£109.9 City of London 10,513 £64.4 2,838 £17.4 395,749 £117.3 7,674 £47.0 73% £87.7 £1,042.9 Croydon 333,644 £1,272.4 230,215 £877.9 162,492 £619.1 103,430 £394.4 31% £1,102.6 £1,148.6 Ealing 318,022 £1,144.3 79,506 £286.1 89,599 £327.0 238,517 £858.3 75% -£245.2 -£236.7 Enfield 284,680 £1,014.9 119,566 £426.3 32,975 £117.0 165,115 £588.7 58% -£45.4 -£43.4 Greenwich 246,260 £864.8 73,878 £259.5 117,331 £372.3 172,382 £605.4 70% £26.3 £39.3 Hackney 223,541 £739.5 20,119 £66.6 82,141 £173.2 203,422 £673.0 91% -£433.2 -£362.9 Hammersmith and Fulham 181,806 £720.7 43,634 £173.0 414,189 £429.5 138,173 £547.7 76% £54.7 £127.2 Haringey 231,244 £841.3 60,123 £218.7 162,353 £480.8 171,120 £622.6 74% £77.0 £79.9 Harrow 215,407 £772.5 88,317 £316.7 45,995 £212.8 127,090 £455.8 59% £73.8 £78.5 Havering 228,544 £844.0 89,132 £329.1 28,472 £424.8 139,412 £514.8 61% £239.2 £250.1 Hillingdon 243,932 £867.8 75,619 £269.0 38,461 £599.1 168,313 £598.8 69% £269.4 £290.9 Hounslow 229,883 £895.4 73,563 £286.5 73,287 £383.1 156,321 £608.9 68% £60.7 £74.1 Islington 194,931 £802.0 29,240 £120.3 114,688 £272.0 165,691 £681.7 85% -£289.4 -£213.2 Kensington and Chelsea 168,974 £806.1 55,762 £266.0 227,218 £633.9 113,213 £540.1 67% £359.9 £820.4 Kingston upon Thames 155,082 £624.4 94,600 £380.9 55,067 £554.1 60,482 £243.5 39% £691.5 £704.9 Lambeth 290,843 £1,074.1 63,985 £236.3 78,434 £71.9 226,857 £837.8 78% -£529.5 -£470.5 Lewisham 266,763 £954.0 66,691 £238.5 112,239 £320.0 200,072 £715.5 75% -£157.0 -£150.1 Merton 192,402 £754.5 67,341 £264.1 64,935 £242.4 125,061 £490.5 65% £16.0 £20.2 Newham 284,298 £834.9 122,248 £359.0 303,002 £297.3 162,050 £475.9 57% £180.4 £191.0 Redbridge 253,889 £885.9 68,550 £239.2 107,299 £487.2 185,339 £646.7 73% £79.7 £83.3 Richmond upon Thames 183,026 £800.0 10,982 £48.0 61,771 £497.3 172,044 £752.0 94% -£206.7 -£190.0 Southwark 288,489 £981.9 89,432 £304.4 297,583 £167.2 199,058 £677.5 69% -£205.9 £36.7 Sutton 180,674 £714.8 63,236 £250.2 28,477 £297.0 117,438 £464.7 65% £82.5 £85.3 Tower Hamlets 245,944 £802.7 39,351 £128.4 224,812 £255.4 206,593 £674.3 84% -£290.5 £154.1 Waltham Forest 227,575 £789.3 43,239 £150.0 83,527 £395.7 184,336 £639.3 81% -£93.6 -£91.9 Wandsworth 293,227 £1,175.1 49,849 £199.8 235,404 £653.6 243,378 £975.3 83% -£122.0 -£107.7 Westminster 218,176 £1,047.1 130,906 £628.2 1,193,818 £4,380.3 87,271 £418.8 40% £4,589.8 £6,951.3 Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 7,062,728 £26,349.4 929,856 £858.8 649,358 £2,422.6 8% £24,785.6 £30,017.7

87

Table 48: 2016 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 187,244 £713.2 41,194 £156.9 46,915 £125.1 146,050 £556.3 78% -£274.3 -£269.4 Barnet 367,720 £1,702.0 165,474 £765.9 110,748 £737.1 202,246 £936.1 55% £566.9 £569.9 Bexley 214,263 £933.7 62,136 £270.8 24,950 £336.4 152,127 £662.9 71% -£55.8 -£52.6 Brent 285,272 £1,122.8 68,465 £269.5 89,275 £495.7 216,806 £853.4 76% -£88.2 -£69.0 Bromley 299,520 £1,453.7 158,746 £770.5 69,909 £320.6 140,775 £683.3 47% £407.8 £422.8 Camden 210,947 £1,090.0 27,423 £141.7 136,598 £343.0 183,523 £948.3 87% -£463.6 -£174.0 City of London 11,990 £88.3 3,237 £23.9 418,722 £137.7 8,753 £64.5 73% £97.1 £1,189.7 Croydon 337,442 £1,524.5 232,835 £1,051.9 162,865 £669.8 104,607 £472.6 31% £1,249.1 £1,299.9 Ealing 327,211 £1,397.6 81,803 £349.4 91,310 £360.4 245,408 £1,048.2 75% -£338.4 -£328.8 Enfield 284,260 £1,208.7 119,389 £507.7 33,491 £123.0 164,871 £701.1 58% -£70.4 -£68.2 Greenwich 262,595 £1,116.0 78,778 £334.8 120,638 £408.9 183,816 £781.2 70% -£37.5 -£22.8 Hackney 232,173 £918.3 20,896 £82.6 85,131 £196.2 211,277 £835.6 91% -£556.8 -£477.7 Hammersmith and Fulham 188,413 £893.1 45,219 £214.4 425,088 £491.1 143,194 £678.8 76% £26.7 £109.3 Haringey 236,227 £1,019.3 61,419 £265.0 164,689 £540.6 174,808 £754.2 74% £51.3 £54.6 Harrow 216,385 £929.9 88,718 £381.3 46,564 £230.9 127,667 £548.7 59% £63.5 £68.7 Havering 230,414 £1,012.4 89,862 £394.9 29,629 £485.7 140,553 £617.6 61% £263.0 £275.2 Hillingdon 243,631 £1,044.8 75,526 £323.9 39,356 £687.1 168,105 £720.9 69% £290.1 £314.3 Hounslow 239,459 £1,095.5 76,627 £350.6 74,561 £429.7 162,832 £744.9 68% £35.3 £50.2 Islington 202,040 £985.3 30,306 £147.8 118,301 £308.7 171,734 £837.5 85% -£381.0 -£295.4 Kensington and Chelsea 173,143 £993.1 57,137 £327.7 234,018 £745.8 116,006 £665.4 67% £408.1 £940.3 Kingston upon Thames 158,021 £766.3 96,393 £467.4 55,880 £633.6 61,628 £298.8 39% £802.2 £817.4 Lambeth 298,648 £1,324.5 65,703 £291.4 80,843 £66.1 232,945 £1,033.1 78% -£675.6 -£607.9 Lewisham 275,137 £1,174.1 68,784 £293.5 116,420 £358.1 206,353 £880.6 75% -£228.9 -£221.2 Merton 192,786 £903.9 67,475 £316.4 65,753 £268.3 125,311 £587.5 65% -£2.9 £1.7 Newham 314,185 £1,106.8 135,099 £475.9 318,079 £304.1 179,085 £630.9 57% £149.2 £161.4 Redbridge 261,819 £1,078.6 70,691 £291.2 110,840 £557.8 191,128 £787.4 73% £61.7 £65.7 Richmond upon Thames 185,621 £971.9 11,137 £58.3 63,651 £577.9 174,484 £913.6 94% -£277.4 -£258.5 Southwark 312,298 £1,278.8 96,812 £396.4 312,506 £168.8 215,486 £882.4 69% -£317.1 -£35.2 Sutton 180,589 £856.6 63,206 £299.8 28,660 £334.6 117,383 £556.8 65% £77.6 £80.6 Tower Hamlets 273,080 £1,044.9 43,693 £167.2 240,240 £299.3 229,387 £877.7 84% -£411.2 £105.7 Waltham Forest 231,947 £954.3 44,070 £181.3 86,028 £453.8 187,877 £773.0 81% -£137.8 -£135.9 Wandsworth 303,458 £1,456.5 51,588 £247.6 239,589 £744.1 251,870 £1,208.9 83% -£217.2 -£201.3 Westminster 224,836 £1,295.4 134,902 £777.2 1,232,573 £5,256.7 89,934 £518.1 40% £5,515.8 £8,235.7 Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,133,849 £31,764.1 960,082 £1,107.4 828,925 £3,690.9 10% £29,180.7 £35,194.8

88

Table 49: 2021 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 204,391 £938.0 44,966 £206.4 47,617 £152.9 159,425 £731.7 78% -£372.4 -£366.0 Barnet 372,573 £2,092.5 167,658 £941.6 110,894 £949.5 204,915 £1,150.9 55% £740.2 £744.1 Bexley 216,435 £1,141.6 62,766 £331.1 25,539 £436.2 153,669 £810.6 71% -£43.3 -£39.3 Brent 288,247 £1,375.3 69,179 £330.1 89,954 £628.4 219,068 £1,045.2 76% -£86.7 -£62.1 Bromley 301,310 £1,770.1 159,694 £938.1 71,029 £429.6 141,616 £831.9 47% £535.8 £555.1 Camden 217,666 £1,356.9 28,297 £176.4 138,795 £436.5 189,370 £1,180.5 87% -£567.6 -£189.6 City of London 12,636 £113.6 3,412 £30.7 434,648 £177.5 9,224 £82.9 73% £125.3 £1,560.4 Croydon 336,341 £1,840.2 232,076 £1,269.8 164,215 £874.2 104,266 £570.5 31% £1,573.5 £1,638.2 Ealing 331,075 £1,717.3 82,769 £429.3 92,407 £457.4 248,306 £1,288.0 75% -£401.2 -£389.0 Enfield 284,849 £1,466.1 119,637 £615.8 33,977 £175.6 165,212 £850.4 58% -£59.0 -£56.1 Greenwich 271,914 £1,417.3 81,574 £425.2 123,718 £516.3 190,340 £992.1 70% -£50.6 -£31.6 Hackney 240,131 £1,152.5 21,612 £103.7 87,196 £248.5 218,520 £1,048.8 91% -£696.6 -£593.5 Hammersmith and Fulham 192,356 £1,105.4 46,166 £265.3 428,296 £622.4 146,191 £840.1 76% £47.6 £154.6 Haringey 242,905 £1,264.1 63,155 £328.7 165,447 £680.5 179,750 £935.5 74% £73.7 £77.8 Harrow 215,263 £1,120.6 88,258 £459.5 47,263 £303.2 127,005 £661.2 59% £101.5 £108.2 Havering 231,687 £1,230.3 90,358 £479.8 30,681 £628.4 141,329 £750.5 61% £357.7 £373.4 Hillingdon 245,080 £1,273.3 75,975 £394.7 40,406 £866.1 169,105 £878.6 69% £382.2 £413.2 Hounslow 241,285 £1,337.8 77,211 £428.1 75,820 £547.8 164,074 £909.7 68% £66.2 £85.3 Islington 207,476 £1,226.3 31,121 £183.9 120,739 £393.6 176,355 £1,042.4 85% -£464.8 -£353.3 Kensington and Chelsea 175,815 £1,223.3 58,019 £403.7 236,698 £959.2 117,796 £819.6 67% £543.2 £1,237.2 Kingston upon Thames 158,553 £933.0 96,717 £569.2 56,478 £817.0 61,836 £363.9 39% £1,022.3 £1,041.8 Lambeth 307,934 £1,656.4 67,746 £364.4 82,138 £86.6 240,189 £1,292.0 78% -£841.0 -£751.9 Lewisham 279,153 £1,445.6 69,788 £361.4 119,064 £463.1 209,365 £1,084.2 75% -£259.7 -£249.7 Merton 193,244 £1,096.6 67,635 £383.8 66,475 £346.2 125,609 £712.8 65% £17.2 £23.1 Newham 325,790 £1,397.1 140,090 £600.7 329,971 £401.7 185,700 £796.3 57% £206.1 £222.1 Redbridge 262,958 £1,312.2 70,999 £354.3 114,112 £716.9 191,959 £957.9 73% £113.3 £118.5 Richmond upon Thames 187,447 £1,189.4 11,247 £71.4 64,281 £725.3 176,200 £1,118.0 94% -£321.3 -£297.0 Southwark 330,523 £1,661.4 102,462 £515.0 321,631 £215.8 228,061 £1,146.4 69% -£415.6 -£42.0 Sutton 180,808 £1,038.7 63,283 £363.5 29,067 £430.9 117,525 £675.2 65% £119.3 £123.2 Tower Hamlets 288,454 £1,340.9 46,153 £214.6 249,576 £388.1 242,301 £1,126.4 84% -£523.8 £160.7 Waltham Forest 231,442 £1,155.1 43,974 £219.5 87,917 £576.1 187,468 £935.6 81% -£140.1 -£137.6 Wandsworth 308,959 £1,801.4 52,523 £306.2 241,471 £937.0 256,436 £1,495.1 83% -£251.9 -£231.5 Westminster 229,286 £1,605.5 137,572 £963.3 1,256,224 £6,720.4 91,714 £642.2 40% £7,041.5 £10,582.2 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,343,971 £39,639.8 978,314 £1,319.2 770,017 £4,156.2 9% £36,802.7 £44,660.5

89

Table 50: 2026 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 221,539 £1,242.0 48,739 £273.2 48,319 £167.4 172,801 £968.8 78% -£528.2 -£520.1 Barnet 377,426 £2,569.3 169,841 £1,156.2 111,040 £1,125.6 207,584 £1,413.1 55% £868.7 £873.5 Bexley 218,607 £1,405.9 63,396 £407.7 26,128 £521.2 155,211 £998.2 71% -£69.3 -£64.3 Brent 291,222 £1,690.4 69,893 £405.7 90,633 £751.8 221,329 £1,284.7 76% -£127.2 -£97.0 Bromley 303,100 £2,164.1 160,643 £1,147.0 72,150 £498.7 142,457 £1,017.1 47% £628.5 £652.0 Camden 224,386 £1,679.1 29,170 £218.3 140,992 £519.9 195,216 £1,460.8 87% -£722.7 -£254.4 City of London 13,282 £144.7 3,586 £39.1 450,575 £215.3 9,696 £105.6 73% £148.7 £1,924.4 Croydon 335,241 £2,227.2 231,316 £1,536.8 165,564 £1,027.7 103,925 £690.4 31% £1,874.1 £1,952.5 Ealing 334,939 £2,080.4 83,735 £520.1 93,504 £544.7 251,204 £1,560.3 75% -£495.5 -£480.7 Enfield 285,438 £1,790.5 119,884 £752.0 34,462 £205.3 165,554 £1,038.5 58% -£81.2 -£77.7 Greenwich 281,234 £1,758.7 84,370 £527.6 126,798 £621.4 196,864 £1,231.1 70% -£82.1 -£58.6 Hackney 248,090 £1,446.7 22,328 £130.2 89,261 £296.3 225,762 £1,316.5 91% -£890.0 -£762.8 Hammersmith and Fulham 196,299 £1,370.3 47,112 £328.9 431,504 £725.1 149,187 £1,041.4 76% £12.6 £142.7 Haringey 249,583 £1,552.8 64,892 £403.7 166,205 £806.9 184,691 £1,149.1 74% £61.5 £66.6 Harrow 214,140 £1,356.2 87,797 £556.0 47,962 £353.0 126,343 £800.2 59% £108.9 £117.0 Havering 232,961 £1,510.7 90,855 £589.2 31,733 £741.2 142,106 £921.5 61% £408.9 £428.0 Hillingdon 246,529 £1,557.0 76,424 £482.7 41,456 £1,027.3 170,105 £1,074.3 69% £435.6 £473.3 Hounslow 243,111 £1,595.4 77,795 £510.5 77,079 £663.9 165,315 £1,084.9 68% £89.6 £112.9 Islington 212,913 £1,531.6 31,937 £229.7 123,177 £465.8 180,976 £1,301.9 85% -£606.3 -£469.6 Kensington and Chelsea 178,487 £1,488.9 58,901 £491.3 239,379 £1,149.3 119,587 £997.6 67% £643.0 £1,497.0 Kingston upon Thames 159,085 £1,130.9 97,042 £689.8 57,077 £976.7 62,043 £441.0 39% £1,225.5 £1,249.3 Lambeth 317,221 £2,074.5 69,789 £456.4 83,432 £86.9 247,432 £1,618.1 78% -£1,074.8 -£964.9 Lewisham 283,169 £1,781.3 70,792 £445.3 121,709 £542.5 212,377 £1,336.0 75% -£348.2 -£336.0 Merton 193,702 £1,327.3 67,796 £464.6 67,196 £406.4 125,906 £862.8 65% £8.2 £15.3 Newham 337,395 £1,756.1 145,080 £755.1 341,862 £476.3 192,315 £1,001.0 57% £230.4 £250.3 Redbridge 264,097 £1,598.7 71,306 £431.7 117,383 £864.8 192,790 £1,167.1 73% £129.4 £135.9 Richmond upon Thames 189,272 £1,458.5 11,356 £87.5 64,911 £867.5 177,916 £1,371.0 94% -£415.9 -£386.3 Southwark 348,748 £2,091.7 108,112 £648.4 330,757 £237.6 240,636 £1,443.3 69% -£557.2 -£94.4 Sutton 181,028 £1,261.1 63,360 £441.4 29,474 £508.6 117,668 £819.7 65% £130.2 £134.9 Tower Hamlets 303,827 £1,700.4 48,612 £272.1 258,911 £465.3 255,215 £1,428.3 84% -£690.9 £158.9 Waltham Forest 230,937 £1,403.3 43,878 £266.6 89,806 £689.2 187,059 £1,136.7 81% -£180.9 -£177.8 Wandsworth 314,460 £2,226.3 53,458 £378.5 243,352 £1,105.3 261,002 £1,847.8 83% -£364.0 -£339.3 Westminster 233,736 £1,980.8 140,241 £1,188.5 1,279,874 £8,169.2 93,494 £792.3 40% £8,565.4 £12,935.6 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,404,795 £48,336.5 996,546 £1,704.8 860,408 £5,616.5 10% £44,424.8 £54,126.2

90

Table 51: 2031 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by borough - 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) Barking and Dagenham 242,155 £1,655.9 53,274 £364.3 49,917 £196.0 188,881 £1,291.6 78% -£731.3 -£720.1 Barnet 387,469 £3,203.6 174,361 £1,441.6 112,778 £1,402.9 213,108 £1,762.0 55% £1,082.6 £1,089.0 Bexley 222,705 £1,746.9 64,584 £506.6 27,821 £653.4 158,120 £1,240.3 71% -£80.3 -£73.6 Brent 299,030 £2,111.7 71,767 £506.8 92,837 £941.1 227,263 £1,604.9 76% -£157.0 -£116.2 Bromley 308,594 £2,675.8 163,555 £1,418.2 75,884 £629.6 145,039 £1,257.6 47% £790.2 £821.6 Camden 229,827 £2,066.5 29,878 £268.6 144,040 £649.2 199,950 £1,797.8 87% -£880.0 -£245.9 City of London 13,963 £186.0 3,770 £50.2 468,680 £270.7 10,193 £135.8 73% £185.2 £2,592.4 Croydon 340,113 £2,736.3 234,678 £1,888.1 170,236 £1,284.6 105,435 £848.3 31% £2,324.4 £2,428.7 Ealing 343,176 £2,550.3 85,794 £637.6 96,413 £692.9 257,382 £1,912.7 75% -£582.3 -£562.3 Enfield 290,596 £2,220.1 122,050 £932.5 36,229 £265.3 168,546 £1,287.7 58% -£89.9 -£85.2 Greenwich 290,555 £2,206.9 87,166 £662.1 131,886 £793.9 203,388 £1,544.8 70% -£88.9 -£57.0 Hackney 258,714 £1,836.8 23,284 £165.3 92,658 £371.9 235,430 £1,671.4 91% -£1,134.3 -£962.1 Hammersmith and Fulham 202,380 £1,716.2 48,571 £411.9 435,497 £878.5 153,809 £1,304.3 76% -£14.0 £159.0 Haringey 259,660 £1,928.0 67,512 £501.3 169,399 £1,004.3 192,149 £1,426.7 74% £78.8 £85.6 Harrow 216,741 £1,671.0 88,864 £685.1 50,003 £435.4 127,877 £985.9 59% £134.6 £145.3 Havering 236,193 £1,866.9 92,115 £728.1 33,555 £915.8 144,078 £1,138.8 61% £505.0 £530.4 Hillingdon 250,650 £1,925.6 77,701 £596.9 44,521 £1,271.8 172,948 £1,328.6 69% £540.1 £590.1 Hounslow 248,535 £1,939.9 79,531 £620.8 80,480 £843.3 169,004 £1,319.1 68% £144.9 £176.2 Islington 220,567 £1,933.3 33,085 £290.0 126,090 £577.9 187,482 £1,643.3 85% -£775.5 -£592.0 Kensington and Chelsea 181,568 £1,809.7 59,918 £597.2 242,068 £1,437.2 121,651 £1,212.5 67% £821.9 £1,969.8 Kingston upon Thames 161,598 £1,388.9 98,575 £847.2 58,778 £1,215.7 63,023 £541.7 39% £1,521.3 £1,552.7 Lambeth 329,962 £2,625.8 72,592 £577.7 85,032 £102.9 257,371 £2,048.1 78% -£1,367.6 -£1,219.5 Lewisham 289,088 £2,214.7 72,272 £553.7 124,490 £674.5 216,816 £1,661.1 75% -£432.9 -£416.6 Merton 197,342 £1,628.6 69,070 £570.0 69,155 £504.3 128,272 £1,058.6 65% £15.7 £25.1 Newham 353,572 £2,243.1 152,036 £964.5 358,594 £609.1 201,536 £1,278.5 57% £295.1 £322.2 Redbridge 268,459 £1,978.7 72,484 £534.3 122,631 £1,091.6 195,975 £1,444.5 73% £181.4 £190.2 Richmond upon Thames 192,886 £1,804.5 11,573 £108.3 66,546 £1,074.2 181,313 £1,696.2 94% -£513.7 -£474.3 Southwark 367,881 £2,660.0 114,043 £824.6 340,763 £288.5 253,838 £1,835.4 69% -£722.4 -£94.0 Sutton 183,592 £1,550.7 64,257 £542.8 30,978 £629.3 119,335 £1,008.0 65% £164.0 £170.3 Tower Hamlets 324,161 £2,184.8 51,866 £349.6 269,417 £587.0 272,295 £1,835.3 84% -£898.7 £258.9 Waltham Forest 235,875 £1,750.0 44,816 £332.5 93,770 £863.7 191,059 £1,417.5 81% -£221.3 -£217.2 Wandsworth 323,406 £2,788.0 54,979 £474.0 247,020 £1,355.7 268,427 £2,314.1 83% -£484.4 -£451.6 Westminster 239,931 £2,464.7 143,959 £1,478.8 1,316,789 £10,249.4 95,972 £985.9 40% £10,742.4 £16,628.1 Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,624,956 £60,267.2 1,026,176 £2,137.8 885,989 £7,002.8 10% £55,402.2 £68,496.9

91

Table 52: 2011 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,703,215 £5,734.5 476,900 £1,605.7 1,765,941 £6,747.2 1,226,315 £4,128.9 72% £4,224.0 £6,991.7 North East 1,427,786 £4,098.9 514,003 £1,475.6 1,149,280 £1,896.0 913,783 £2,623.3 64% £748.3 £2,179.3 South East 1,314,899 £4,141.0 368,172 £1,159.5 600,468 £1,923.8 946,727 £2,981.5 72% £101.7 £380.5 South West 1,628,898 £5,507.4 798,160 £2,698.6 663,694 £2,389.5 830,738 £2,808.8 51% £2,279.4 £2,435.7 West 1,637,288 £5,260.2 507,559 £1,630.7 943,254 £3,109.5 1,129,728 £3,629.5 69% £1,110.6 £1,708.9 Greater London 7,712,086 £28,772.0 7,062,728 £26,349.4 929,856 £858.8 649,358 £2,422.6 8% £24,785.6 £30,017.7

Table 53: 2016 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,758,202 £6,750.9 492,297 £1,890.2 1,818,815 £8,064.8 1,265,906 £4,860.6 72% £5,094.4 £8,277.0 North East 1,510,679 £4,927.1 543,844 £1,773.8 1,208,772 £2,201.2 966,834 £3,153.4 64% £821.6 £2,466.5 South East 1,363,814 £4,892.5 381,868 £1,369.9 622,942 £2,246.3 981,946 £3,522.6 72% £93.6 £416.1 South West 1,656,565 £6,410.3 811,717 £3,141.0 674,000 £2,770.2 844,848 £3,269.2 51% £2,642.0 £2,818.1 West 1,673,514 £6,141.3 518,789 £1,903.8 966,831 £3,643.4 1,154,725 £4,237.5 69% £1,309.7 £1,997.7 Greater London 7,962,774 £35,455.0 7,133,849 £31,764.1 960,082 £1,107.4 828,925 £3,690.9 10% £29,180.7 £35,194.8

92

Table 54: 2021 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,794,887 £8,529.6 502,568 £2,388.3 1,849,496 £10,223.5 1,292,319 £6,141.3 72% £6,470.5 £10,614.7 North East 1,557,358 £6,305.7 560,649 £2,270.0 1,251,372 £2,773.5 996,709 £4,035.6 64% £1,007.9 £3,173.4 South East 1,399,336 £6,225.0 391,814 £1,743.0 638,950 £2,832.5 1,007,522 £4,482.0 72% £93.5 £519.3 South West 1,673,287 £8,012.2 819,911 £3,926.0 680,653 £3,470.0 853,376 £4,086.2 51% £3,309.8 £3,537.5 West 1,689,121 £7,644.9 523,627 £2,369.9 977,149 £4,584.2 1,165,493 £5,275.0 69% £1,679.2 £2,573.8 Greater London 8,113,988 £43,796.0 7,343,971 £39,639.8 978,314 £1,319.2 770,017 £4,156.2 9% £36,802.7 £44,660.5

Table 55: 2026 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Of Trade Commuting) North 1,831,572 £10,308.3 512,840 £2,886.3 1,880,178 £12,412.9 1,318,731 £7,422.0 72% £7,877.3 £12,993.0 North East 1,604,037 £7,684.2 577,453 £2,766.3 1,293,971 £3,357.3 1,026,584 £4,917.9 64% £1,205.8 £3,887.9 South East 1,434,858 £7,557.5 401,760 £2,116.1 654,957 £3,416.5 1,033,098 £5,441.4 72% £91.2 £618.1 South West 1,690,009 £9,614.2 828,104 £4,711.0 687,307 £4,147.4 861,904 £4,903.3 51% £3,955.1 £4,233.3 West 1,704,727 £9,148.4 528,465 £2,836.0 987,467 £5,507.4 1,176,262 £6,312.4 69% £2,031.0 £3,129.3 Greater London 8,265,202 £53,953.0 7,404,795 £48,336.5 996,546 £1,704.8 860,408 £5,616.5 10% £44,424.8 £54,126.2

93

Table 56: 2031 (Timeline) comparison goods shopping expenditure by sub-region – 2003 prices, £m

Balance Of Borough Borough Population Retained Shopping Attracted Shopping Leakage Trade (Inc. Balance Of Tourism & Residents Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend Shoppers Expend % Expend Trade Commuting) North 1,886,765 £12,855.4 528,294 £3,599.5 1,931,383 £15,537.5 1,358,471 £9,255.9 72% £9,674.0 £16,567.5 North East 1,674,376 £9,744.8 602,776 £3,508.1 1,350,011 £4,195.3 1,071,601 £6,236.7 64% £1,328.1 £4,969.5 South East 1,478,824 £9,448.4 414,071 £2,645.5 677,482 £4,277.9 1,064,753 £6,802.8 72% -£37.6 £677.0 South West 1,728,900 £11,927.3 847,161 £5,844.4 703,488 £5,112.2 881,739 £6,082.9 51% £4,631.9 £5,003.4 West 1,742,080 £11,271.6 540,045 £3,494.2 1,007,093 £6,853.9 1,202,035 £7,777.4 69% £2,279.6 £3,753.3 Greater London 8,510,945 £67,270.0 7,624,956 £60,267.2 1,026,176 £2,137.8 885,989 £7,002.8 10% £55,402.2 £68,496.9

94

Table 57: Impact Of Stratford Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF STRATFORD DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031

Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Stratford 129.0 388.0 1,869.1 381.8% 1,799.3 363.8% Streatham 65.1 168.3 168.3 0.0% 146.1 -13.2% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 217.4 0.0% 198.2 -8.8% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 414.6 0.0% 348.3 -16.0% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 606.5 0.0% 555.9 -8.3% Wembley 26.3 73.2 73.2 0.0% 74.4 1.6% Putney 152.4 391.0 391.0 0.0% 331.8 -15.1% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 713.3 0.0% 610.7 -14.4% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 381.5 0.0% 319.7 -16.2% Sutton 325.5 830.3 830.4 0.0% 783.5 -5.6% Ealing 238.7 605.2 605.2 0.0% 556.5 -8.0% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 416.2 0.0% 355.5 -14.6% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,715.2 0.0% 1,644.8 -4.1% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 843.4 0.0% 774.1 -8.2% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 725.1 0.0% 669.9 -7.6% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,044.4 0.0% 957.1 -8.4% Southall 76.1 212.5 212.5 0.0% 189.4 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 510.1 510.1 0.0% 451.3 -11.5% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 206.4 0.0% 191.8 -7.1% Tooting 186.6 472.2 472.0 0.0% 423.9 -10.2% Edgware 91.8 255.5 255.4 0.0% 244.8 -4.2% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 411.6 -0.1% 345.3 -16.2% Harrow 308.3 782.2 781.3 -0.1% 732.1 -6.4%

95

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031

Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,609.2 -0.2% 1,663.0 3.2% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 682.7 -0.2% 755.4 10.4% Fulham 85.4 242.4 241.5 -0.4% 201.1 -17.1% Brixton 86.0 236.1 235.2 -0.4% 201.6 -14.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,382.7 -0.5% 2,211.2 -7.7% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,423.4 -0.6% 11,852.2 -5.1% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 822.6 -1.0% 784.9 -5.5% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,853.2 -1.3% 1,799.2 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,146.3 -1.5% 1,112.5 -4.4% Orpington 82.8 217.9 214.3 -1.6% 211.5 -3.0% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 755.5 -1.8% 738.3 -4.0% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 467.0 -1.9% 458.0 -3.8% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,439.7 -1.9% 1,415.0 -3.6% Angel 186.0 513.4 503.1 -2.0% 468.5 -8.8% Peckham 92.2 262.7 257.4 -2.0% 227.0 -13.6% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 651.4 -2.2% 631.3 -5.3% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 279.1 -2.5% 266.2 -7.0% Catford 48.8 128.6 124.8 -3.0% 144.9 12.7% Romford 354.9 943.4 914.8 -3.0% 913.3 -3.2% Eltham 109.2 292.9 283.4 -3.3% 272.5 -7.0% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 631.8 -4.0% 611.5 -7.1% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 503.5 -5.4% 544.9 2.3% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 656.7 -5.6% 658.1 -5.4% Dalston 73.1 200.4 188.7 -5.8% 182.3 -9.0% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 241.0 -6.5% 240.9 -6.6% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 939.1 -7.1% 926.8 -8.3% East Ham 100.6 293.2 263.0 -10.3% 254.6 -13.2%

96

Table 58 Impact Of White City Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF WHITE CITY DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (White City B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

White City - - 2,390.1 - 2,250.1 -

Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,010.4 0.0% 926.8 -8.3% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 532.6 0.0% 544.9 2.3% Stratford 129.0 388.0 388.0 0.0% 1,799.3 363.8% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.9 0.0% 211.5 -3.0% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 695.6 0.0% 658.1 -5.4% Eltham 109.2 292.9 292.9 0.0% 272.5 -7.0% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 666.2 0.0% 631.3 -5.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 257.7 0.0% 240.9 -6.6% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,162.7 0.0% 1,112.5 -4.4% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,876.4 -0.1% 1,799.2 -4.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,466.8 -0.1% 1,415.0 -3.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.3 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2% Catford 48.8 128.6 128.4 -0.2% 144.9 12.7% East Ham 100.6 293.2 292.5 -0.2% 254.6 -13.2% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 656.2 -0.3% 611.5 -7.1% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 473.8 -0.5% 458.0 -3.8% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,603.8 -0.5% 1,663.0 3.2% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 764.5 -0.6% 738.3 -4.0% Dalston 73.1 200.4 198.9 -0.7% 182.3 -9.0% Sutton 325.5 830.3 822.0 -1.0% 783.5 -5.6% Peckham 92.2 262.7 259.6 -1.2% 227.0 -13.6% Edgware 91.8 255.5 251.8 -1.4% 244.8 -4.2% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,283.6 -1.7% 11,852.2 -5.1% Streatham 65.1 168.3 164.8 -2.0% 146.1 -13.2%

97

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031

Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Nags Head 107.3 286.4 280.2 -2.2% 266.2 -7.0% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 669.1 -2.2% 755.4 10.4% Brixton 86.0 236.1 230.8 -2.3% 201.6 -14.6% Angel 186.0 513.4 501.3 -2.4% 468.5 -8.8% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 590.5 -2.6% 555.9 -8.3% Tooting 186.6 472.2 459.5 -2.7% 423.9 -10.2% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,327.6 -2.8% 2,211.2 -7.7% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 806.3 -2.9% 784.9 -5.5% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,657.7 -3.3% 1,644.8 -4.1% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,003.3 -3.9% 957.1 -8.4% Harrow 308.3 782.2 751.0 -4.0% 732.1 -6.4% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 805.8 -4.4% 774.1 -8.2% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 196.0 -5.1% 191.8 -7.1% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 391.9 -5.4% 348.3 -16.0% Wembley 26.3 73.2 68.9 -5.9% 74.4 1.6% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 204.5 -5.9% 198.2 -8.8% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 681.3 -6.0% 669.9 -7.6% Southall 76.1 212.5 197.6 -7.0% 189.4 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 510.1 473.0 -7.3% 451.3 -11.5% Putney 152.4 391.0 361.0 -7.7% 331.8 -15.1% Ealing 238.7 605.2 550.9 -9.0% 556.5 -8.0% Fulham 85.4 242.4 219.2 -9.6% 201.1 -17.1% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 644.5 -9.6% 610.7 -14.4% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 375.6 -9.7% 355.5 -14.6% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 371.1 -9.9% 345.3 -16.2% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 338.1 -11.4% 319.7 -16.2%

98

Table 59: Impact Of Elephant & Castle Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF ELEPHANT & CASTLE DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Elephant & B) all development B) growth only) Castle only) commitments

Elephant & Castle 19.9 60.1 936.1 1456.8% 841.9 1300.1% Southall 76.1 212.5 212.5 0.0% 189.4 -10.9% Edgware 91.8 255.5 255.6 0.0% 244.8 -4.2% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 843.5 0.0% 774.1 -8.2% Harrow 308.3 782.2 782.4 0.0% 732.1 -6.4% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 684.2 0.0% 755.4 10.4% Ealing 238.7 605.2 604.9 0.0% 556.5 -8.0% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 724.7 -0.1% 669.9 -7.6% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,876.8 -0.1% 1,799.2 -4.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,466.5 -0.1% 1,415.0 -3.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.3 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,712.6 -0.1% 1,644.8 -4.1% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 768.0 -0.2% 738.3 -4.0% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.5 -0.2% 211.5 -3.0% Richmond 196.2 510.1 509.1 -0.2% 451.3 -11.5% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 475.2 -0.2% 458.0 -3.8% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 415.3 -0.2% 355.5 -14.6% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,008.0 -0.2% 926.8 -8.3% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 205.7 -0.4% 191.8 -7.1% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 693.1 -0.4% 658.1 -5.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 663.6 -0.4% 631.3 -5.3% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,440.3 -0.4% 11,852.2 -5.1% Wembley 26.3 73.2 72.9 -0.4% 74.4 1.6%

99

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Sutton 325.5 830.3 825.8 -0.5% 783.5 -5.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,382.8 -0.5% 2,211.2 -7.7% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 256.2 -0.6% 240.9 -6.6% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,156.2 -0.6% 1,112.5 -4.4% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 601.3 -0.8% 555.9 -8.3% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 284.0 -0.8% 266.2 -7.0% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 378.2 -0.9% 319.7 -16.2% Eltham 109.2 292.9 290.4 -0.9% 272.5 -7.0% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,597.3 -0.9% 1,663.0 3.2% East Ham 100.6 293.2 290.2 -1.0% 254.6 -13.2% Stratford 129.0 388.0 383.6 -1.1% 1,799.3 363.8% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 820.8 -1.2% 784.9 -5.5% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 526.2 -1.2% 544.9 2.3% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,031.1 -1.3% 957.1 -8.4% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 406.7 -1.3% 345.3 -16.2% Dalston 73.1 200.4 197.8 -1.3% 182.3 -9.0% Putney 152.4 391.0 385.8 -1.3% 331.8 -15.1% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 702.8 -1.5% 610.7 -14.4% Tooting 186.6 472.2 462.6 -2.0% 423.9 -10.2% Angel 186.0 513.4 501.6 -2.3% 468.5 -8.8% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 642.2 -2.4% 611.5 -7.1% Catford 48.8 128.6 125.5 -2.5% 144.9 12.7% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 211.7 -2.6% 198.2 -8.8% Fulham 85.4 242.4 235.8 -2.7% 201.1 -17.1% Streatham 65.1 168.3 163.2 -3.0% 146.1 -13.2% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 402.0 -3.0% 348.3 -16.0% Brixton 86.0 236.1 224.1 -5.1% 201.6 -14.6% Peckham 92.2 262.7 247.5 -5.8% 227.0 -13.6%

100

Table 60: Impact Of Battersea Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF BATTERSEA DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Battersea B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Battersea 11.8 31.9 859.6 2597.5% 761.0 2288.1% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 769.5 0.0% 738.3 -4.0% Dalston 73.1 200.4 200.4 0.0% 182.3 -9.0% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 695.8 0.0% 658.1 -5.4% Edgware 91.8 255.5 255.6 0.0% 244.8 -4.2% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 684.1 0.0% 755.4 10.4% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 476.2 0.0% 458.0 -3.8% Stratford 129.0 388.0 388.0 0.0% 1,799.3 363.8% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.9 0.0% 211.5 -3.0% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 532.4 0.0% 544.9 2.3% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 666.2 0.0% 631.3 -5.3% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,010.2 0.0% 926.8 -8.3% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 286.3 0.0% 266.2 -7.0% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 257.7 0.0% 240.9 -6.6% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,877.2 0.0% 1,799.2 -4.2% Angel 186.0 513.4 513.1 -0.1% 468.5 -8.8% Eltham 109.2 292.9 292.7 -0.1% 272.5 -7.0% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,466.9 -0.1% 1,415.0 -3.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.3 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2% Harrow 308.3 782.2 780.5 -0.2% 732.1 -6.4% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,160.2 -0.3% 1,112.5 -4.4% East Ham 100.6 293.2 292.4 -0.3% 254.6 -13.2% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 205.8 -0.3% 191.8 -7.1%

101

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development (i.e. With development (% difference column C- With cumulative impact of (% difference column E- Population/ expenditure commitment (Stratford B) all development B) growth only) only) commitments

Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 839.8 -0.4% 774.1 -8.2% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 827.0 -0.4% 784.9 -5.5% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,436.7 -0.5% 11,852.2 -5.1% Wembley 26.3 73.2 72.7 -0.7% 74.4 1.6% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 653.5 -0.7% 611.5 -7.1% Southall 76.1 212.5 210.8 -0.8% 189.4 -10.9% Catford 48.8 128.6 127.6 -0.8% 144.9 12.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,375.8 -0.8% 2,211.2 -7.7% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 717.9 -1.0% 669.9 -7.6% Ealing 238.7 605.2 599.0 -1.0% 556.5 -8.0% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,594.9 -1.1% 1,663.0 3.2% Sutton 325.5 830.3 818.6 -1.4% 783.5 -5.6% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 409.6 -1.6% 355.5 -14.6% Richmond 196.2 510.1 501.6 -1.7% 451.3 -11.5% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,685.0 -1.8% 1,644.8 -4.1% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 403.5 -2.1% 345.3 -16.2% Peckham 92.2 262.7 257.0 -2.2% 227.0 -13.6% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,020.2 -2.3% 957.1 -8.4% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 694.0 -2.7% 610.7 -14.4% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 588.7 -2.9% 555.9 -8.3% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 369.4 -3.2% 319.7 -16.2% Tooting 186.6 472.2 452.6 -4.1% 423.9 -10.2% Brixton 86.0 236.1 226.2 -4.2% 201.6 -14.6% Streatham 65.1 168.3 161.0 -4.3% 146.1 -13.2% Putney 152.4 391.0 373.8 -4.4% 331.8 -15.1% Fulham 85.4 242.4 230.2 -5.0% 201.1 -17.1% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 389.3 -6.1% 348.3 -16.0% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 203.4 -6.5% 198.2 -8.8%

102

Table 61: Impact Of Brent Cross Development On London Centres

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS IMPACT OF BRENT CROSS DEVELOPMENT CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices A B C D E F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development With development (% difference column With cumulative impact (% difference column (i.e. Population/ commitment (Battersea C-B) of all development E-B) expenditure growth only) only) commitments

Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 826.7 20.9% 755.4 10.4% Orpington 82.8 217.9 217.9 0.0% 211.5 -3.0% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 666.4 0.0% 631.3 -5.3% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,163.2 0.0% 1,112.5 -4.4% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 657.9 0.0% 611.5 -7.1% Catford 48.8 128.6 128.6 0.0% 144.9 12.7% Eltham 109.2 292.9 292.9 0.0% 272.5 -7.0% Woolwich 187.3 532.5 532.5 0.0% 544.9 2.3% Peckham 92.2 262.7 262.7 0.0% 227.0 -13.6% Croydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,612.0 0.0% 1,663.0 3.2% Sutton 325.5 830.3 830.3 0.0% 783.5 -5.6% Wimbledon 240.0 606.3 606.3 0.0% 555.9 -8.3% Tooting 186.6 472.2 472.2 0.0% 423.9 -10.2% Streatham 65.1 168.3 168.3 0.0% 146.1 -13.2% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,715.1 0.0% 1,644.8 -4.1% Brixton 86.0 236.1 236.1 0.0% 201.6 -14.6% Wandsworth 83.9 217.4 217.4 0.0% 198.2 -8.8% Clapham Junction 158.7 414.5 414.5 0.0% 348.3 -16.0% Putney 152.4 391.0 391.0 0.0% 331.8 -15.1% Richmond 196.2 510.1 510.1 0.0% 451.3 -11.5% Kensington High Street 256.8 713.2 713.2 0.0% 610.7 -14.4% Chiswick 165.5 416.2 416.2 0.0% 355.5 -14.6% Romford 354.9 943.4 942.5 -0.1% 913.3 -3.2%

103

Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Impact 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 Centre Base No new development With development (% difference column With cumulative impact (% difference column (i.e. Population/ commitment (Stratford C-B) of all development E-B) expenditure growth only) only) commitments

Stratford 129.0 388.0 387.6 -0.1% 1,799.3 363.8% East Ham 100.6 293.2 292.9 -0.1% 254.6 -13.2% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 1,009.4 -0.1% 926.8 -8.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 257.5 -0.1% 240.9 -6.6% Walthamstow 263.0 695.6 694.9 -0.1% 658.1 -5.4% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 724.4 -0.1% 669.9 -7.6% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 841.6 -0.2% 774.1 -8.2% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 1,042.3 -0.2% 957.1 -8.4% Southall 76.1 212.5 212.1 -0.2% 189.4 -10.9% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 380.7 -0.2% 319.7 -16.2% Fulham 85.4 242.4 241.9 -0.2% 201.1 -17.1% Ealing 238.7 605.2 603.9 -0.2% 556.5 -8.0% Harrow 308.3 782.2 780.6 -0.2% 732.1 -6.4% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 206.0 -0.2% 191.8 -7.1% Wembley 26.3 73.2 72.8 -0.5% 74.4 1.6% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,454.9 -0.9% 1,415.0 -3.6% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,859.3 -1.0% 1,799.2 -4.2% West End 4,178.8 12,494.5 12,307.1 -1.5% 11,852.2 -5.1% Dalston 73.1 200.4 196.4 -2.0% 182.3 -9.0% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 466.2 -2.1% 458.0 -3.8% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,340.8 -2.3% 2,211.2 -7.7% Camden Town 286.8 830.6 804.0 -3.2% 784.9 -5.5% Wood Green 299.3 769.3 742.4 -3.5% 738.3 -4.0% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 275.2 -3.9% 266.2 -7.0% Edgware 91.8 255.5 245.3 -4.0% 244.8 -4.2% Angel 186.0 513.4 491.8 -4.2% 468.5 -8.8% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 412.0 391.8 -4.9% 345.3 -16.2%

104

Table 62: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2011

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2011 Forecast Turnover 2011 Cumulative Impact 2011 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im p ac t o f (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c om m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 158.4 745.3 370.5% Catford 48.8 56.5 63.8 12.9% Brent Cross 249.7 294.1 324.6 10.4% Croydon 636.5 737.6 760.7 3.1% W oolwich 187.3 220.4 225.7 2.4% W embley 26.3 30.9 31.5 1.8% Orpington 82.8 95.4 92.6 -3.0% Romford 354.9 416.6 403.3 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 620.8 598.2 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 206.4 198.6 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 346.5 333.1 -3.9% Kingston 646.0 754.2 723.1 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 108.3 103.8 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 789.5 756.3 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 514.7 491.8 -4.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 286.9 271.7 -5.3% W est End 4,178.8 5,101.9 4,827.6 -5.4% W althamstow 263.0 306.9 290.2 -5.4% S utton 325.5 376.1 355.3 -5.5% Camden Town 286.8 344.6 324.9 -5.7% Harrow 308.3 355.3 332.8 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 104.2 97.5 -6.4% Lewisham 248.2 290.4 270.5 -6.8% Nags Head 107.3 125.1 116.4 -6.9% Eltham 109.2 126.3 117.5 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 90.2 83.6 -7.3% Hounslow 269.0 314.6 290.3 -7.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,009.0 928.2 -8.0% Ilford 365.2 431.7 396.4 -8.2% Uxbridge 330.5 380.7 349.5 -8.2% W imbledon 240.0 276.3 253.1 -8.4% Ealing 238.7 277.2 253.4 -8.6% W andsworth 83.9 97.5 89.0 -8.8% Angel 186.0 219.8 200.3 -8.9% Dalston 73.1 86.1 78.3 -9.0% Kings Road East 337.9 420.0 381.4 -9.2% Tooting 186.6 214.8 192.8 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 88.3 78.6 -11.0% Richmond 196.2 228.8 201.7 -11.9% S treatham 65.1 75.4 65.5 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 119.3 103.4 -13.3% Peckham 92.2 109.6 94.8 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 100.5 85.7 -14.7% Chiswick 165.5 192.9 163.7 -15.1% Putney 152.4 177.0 149.7 -15.4% Kensington High S treet 256.8 309.2 261.4 -15.4% Clapham Junction 158.7 184.3 154.8 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 181.2 151.2 -16.5% Hammersmith 150.2 175.2 146.2 -16.6% Fulham 85.4 103.1 84.4 -18.2%

105

Table 63: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2016

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2016 Forecast Turnover 2016 Cumulative Impact 2016 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im pac t of (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 195.6 908.7 364.5% Catford 48.8 66.3 74.8 12.8% Brent Cross 249.7 355.4 392.3 10.4% Croydon 636.5 861.8 889.1 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 263.3 269.5 2.4% W embley 26.3 36.7 37.4 1.7% Orpington 82.8 112.0 108.7 -2.9% Romford 354.9 494.4 478.7 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 750.7 723.6 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 244.4 235.2 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 405.8 389.9 -3.9% Kingston 646.0 901.1 864.3 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 130.6 125.1 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 956.7 916.6 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 607.5 580.7 -4.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 341.6 323.6 -5.2% W est End 4,178.8 6,264.6 5,934.7 -5.3% S utton 325.5 442.7 418.3 -5.5% W althamstow 263.0 360.6 340.7 -5.5% Camden Town 286.8 417.8 394.4 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 417.8 391.4 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 124.1 116.2 -6.4% Lewisham 248.2 344.4 320.6 -6.9% Eltham 109.2 149.3 138.9 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 147.5 137.2 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 107.6 100.0 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 372.8 344.1 -7.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,224.4 1,127.8 -7.9% Uxbridge 330.5 451.0 414.1 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 512.9 470.3 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 324.8 297.7 -8.4% Ealing 238.7 326.4 298.5 -8.5% W andsworth 83.9 115.4 105.4 -8.7% Kings Road East 337.9 519.2 473.4 -8.8% Angel 186.0 261.6 238.4 -8.9% Dalston 73.1 101.9 92.6 -9.2% Tooting 186.6 251.7 225.9 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 104.9 93.3 -11.0% Richmond 196.2 271.2 239.2 -11.8% S treatham 65.1 88.3 76.7 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 142.1 123.2 -13.3% Peckham 92.2 132.6 114.7 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 119.2 101.7 -14.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 374.7 318.3 -15.1% Chiswick 165.5 227.7 193.4 -15.1% Putney 152.4 209.1 177.0 -15.4% Clapham Junction 158.7 218.0 183.1 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 215.9 180.5 -16.4% Hammersmith 150.2 207.1 172.9 -16.5% Fulham 85.4 125.1 103.0 -17.7%

106

Table 64: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2021

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2021 Forecast Turnover 2021 Cumulative Impact 2021 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im pac t of (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 245.5 1,137.1 363.2% Catford 48.8 81.7 92.1 12.8% Brent Cross 249.7 439.8 485.6 10.4% Croydon 636.5 1,052.7 1,086.1 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 326.2 333.9 2.4% W embley 26.3 45.2 45.9 1.7% Orpington 82.8 137.6 133.6 -2.9% Romford 354.9 610.8 591.4 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 937.9 904.0 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 301.5 290.0 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 499.4 479.8 -3.9% Kingston 646.0 1,112.7 1,067.4 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 161.5 154.8 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 1,196.9 1,146.8 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 749.1 716.3 -4.4% Bexleyheath 246.8 423.8 401.6 -5.2% W est End 4,178.8 7,846.8 7,436.6 -5.2% W althamstow 263.0 442.7 418.3 -5.5% S utton 325.5 544.2 514.1 -5.5% Camden Town 286.8 521.5 492.4 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 511.0 478.8 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 156.5 146.5 -6.4% Eltham 109.2 184.5 171.7 -6.9% Lewisham 248.2 427.5 397.6 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 182.4 169.7 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 132.9 123.4 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 457.5 422.4 -7.7% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,523.3 1,403.8 -7.8% Uxbridge 330.5 552.1 506.9 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 636.9 583.9 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 398.5 365.2 -8.3% Ealing 238.7 400.2 366.0 -8.5% Kings Road East 337.9 652.5 596.0 -8.7% W andsworth 83.9 142.3 129.9 -8.7% Angel 186.0 327.1 298.1 -8.9% Dalston 73.1 126.5 114.8 -9.2% Tooting 186.6 308.6 277.0 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 128.9 114.7 -11.0% Richmond 196.2 333.4 294.3 -11.7% S treatham 65.1 108.4 94.1 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 178.7 154.9 -13.3% Peckham 92.2 167.6 145.0 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 148.2 126.6 -14.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 466.8 397.3 -14.9% Chiswick 165.5 279.6 237.4 -15.1% Putney 152.4 257.4 217.9 -15.3% Clapham Junction 158.7 268.8 225.7 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 267.2 223.6 -16.3% Hammersmith 150.2 254.7 212.7 -16.5% Fulham 85.4 155.9 128.7 -17.5%

107

Table 65: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2026

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2026 Forecast Turnover 2026 Cumulative Impact 2026 Centre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um ulativ e im pac t of (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all development growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 304.7 1,412.3 363.6% Catford 48.8 101.0 113.9 12.7% Brent Cross 249.7 543.9 600.5 10.4% Croydon 636.5 1,288.8 1,329.7 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 411.2 420.9 2.4% W embley 26.3 56.6 57.6 1.7% Orpington 82.8 171.4 166.3 -2.9% Romford 354.9 752.7 728.8 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,165.4 1,123.3 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 375.3 361.0 -3.8% W ood Green 299.3 613.2 588.8 -4.0% Kingston 646.0 1,369.7 1,313.9 -4.1% Edgware 91.8 201.2 192.8 -4.2% Bluewater 663.7 1,490.9 1,428.5 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 924.1 883.8 -4.4% W est End 4,178.8 9,818.5 9,310.8 -5.2% Bexleyheath 246.8 526.6 499.1 -5.2% W althamstow 263.0 546.6 516.9 -5.4% Camden Town 286.8 651.3 615.3 -5.5% S utton 325.5 665.8 628.7 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 625.2 585.7 -6.3% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 198.4 185.6 -6.5% Eltham 109.2 229.6 213.6 -6.9% Lewisham 248.2 524.1 487.3 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 225.6 209.7 -7.0% Kilburn 76.4 164.0 152.4 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 568.9 525.4 -7.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 1,894.0 1,746.9 -7.8% Uxbridge 330.5 675.6 620.3 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 792.8 727.1 -8.3% Ealing 238.7 486.2 445.8 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 486.6 446.0 -8.3% Kings Road East 337.9 817.4 748.0 -8.5% W andsworth 83.9 174.1 158.9 -8.8% Angel 186.0 405.8 370.0 -8.8% Dalston 73.1 157.1 142.7 -9.1% Tooting 186.6 377.8 339.2 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 162.7 144.9 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 408.5 360.9 -11.6% S treatham 65.1 133.4 115.8 -13.2% East Ham 100.6 225.7 195.9 -13.2% Peckham 92.2 207.5 179.4 -13.5% Brixton 86.0 184.6 157.6 -14.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 572.9 489.1 -14.6% Chiswick 165.5 337.7 287.6 -14.8% Putney 152.4 314.2 266.3 -15.2% Clapham Junction 158.7 330.0 277.2 -16.0% Queensway/Westbourne Grove 154.0 328.7 275.3 -16.2% Hammersmith 150.2 308.6 258.2 -16.3% Fulham 85.4 192.6 159.3 -17.3%

108

Table 66: Cumulative impact of all developments, 2006-2031

All figures in £m, constant 2006 BASE SCENARIOS CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF ALL DEVELOPMENTS prices ABE F Forecast Turnover 2006 Forecast Turnover 2031 Forecast Turnover 2031 Cumulative Impact 2031 C entre Base No new development (i.e. W ith c um u la tiv e im p a c t o f (% difference column E-B) Population/ expenditure all developm ent growth only) c o m m itm ents

S tratford 129.0 388.0 1,799.3 363.8% C atford 48.8 128.6 144.9 12.7% Brent Cross 249.7 684.1 755.4 10.4% C roydon 636.5 1,612.0 1,663.0 3.2% W oolwich 187.3 532.5 544.9 2.3% Wembley 26.373.274.41.6% Orpington 82.8 217.9 211.5 -3.0% Romford 354.9 943.4 913.3 -3.2% Lakeside 523.6 1,468.2 1,415.0 -3.6% Enfield Town 177.5 476.2 458.0 -3.8% W ood G reen 299.3 769.3 738.3 -4.0% Kingston 646.0 1,715.1 1,644.8 -4.1% Bluewater 663.7 1,878.0 1,799.2 -4.2% Edgware 91.8 255.5 244.8 -4.2% Bromley 443.8 1,163.2 1,112.5 -4.4% W est End 4,178.8 12,494.5 11,852.2 -5.1% Bexleyheath 246.8 666.4 631.3 -5.3% W althamstow 263.0 695.6 658.1 -5.4% C amden Town 286.8 830.6 784.9 -5.5% S utton 325.5 830.3 783.5 -5.6% Harrow 308.3 782.2 732.1 -6.4% Barking & Dagenham 87.8 257.8 240.9 -6.6% Eltham 109.2 292.9 272.5 -7.0% Nags Head 107.3 286.4 266.2 -7.0% Lewisham 248.2 657.9 611.5 -7.1% Kilburn 76.4 206.5 191.8 -7.1% Hounslow 269.0 725.1 669.9 -7.6% Knightsbridge 842.5 2,395.9 2,211.2 -7.7% Ealing 238.7 605.2 556.5 -8.0% Uxbridge 330.5 843.3 774.1 -8.2% Ilford 365.2 1,010.4 926.8 -8.3% W imbledon 240.0 606.3 555.9 -8.3% Kings Road East 337.9 1,044.3 957.1 -8.4% Angel 186.0 513.4 468.5 -8.8% W andsworth 83.9 217.4 198.2 -8.8% Dalston 73.1 200.4 182.3 -9.0% Tooting 186.6 472.2 423.9 -10.2% S outhall 76.1 212.5 189.4 -10.9% Richmond 196.2 510.1 451.3 -11.5% East Ham 100.6 293.2 254.6 -13.2% S treatham 65.1 168.3 146.1 -13.2% Peckham 92.2 262.7 227.0 -13.6% Kensington High S treet 256.8 713.2 610.7 -14.4% C hiswick 165.5 416.2 355.5 -14.6% Brixton 86.0 236.1 201.6 -14.6% Putney 152.4 391.0 331.8 -15.1% C lapham Junction 158.7 414.5 348.3 -16.0% Hammersmith 150.2 381.5 319.7 -16.2% Queensway/Westbourne G rove 154.0 412.0 345.3 -16.2% Fulham 85.4 242.4 201.1 -17.1%

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8 CAPACITY, SALES DENSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

Introduction 8.1 A key part of this study is an assessment of the adequacy, or otherwise, of comparison goods retail capacity provision in London. In order to access the adequacy of future capacity in London, as well as having a view of future demand growth, we need to be able to assess both the current level of capacity15 and potential future increases in capacity. This comprises two parts: the creation of additional retail space and the increase in efficiency of existing retail space (sales densities), which we refer to as productivity growth.

8.2 Another reason for being interested in productivity growth is the potential relationship between productivity growth, retail demand growth and the vitality of retail centres. If productivity grows by, say, 2.5 per cent per annum, but retail spending is only growing by 2.0 per cent per annum, there will be increasing excess of capacity over sales. This will inevitably manifest itself in increased shop closures and vacant units. This is also a concern of this study alongside the adequacy of future retail space provision.

8.3 Projecting potential sales densities and, hence, capacity is not a straightforward procedure. On the one hand, considerable uncertainty surrounds the accuracy of data on past trends, while on the other hand it is not clear if past trends are a good guide to future changes. This is partly because past trends may not be sustainable and partly because past trends were themselves a response to earlier planning regimes which may not be relevant to the future. Our response to these uncertainties has been to adopt a scenario approach where the space requirements are calculated for a wide range of possible future sales densities.

Defining capacity – what is retail space productivity/efficiency growth? 8.4 We define retail space productivity growth, or the rate of change of the efficiency of retail floorspace (as distinct from labour productivity, which refers to the changing amount of labour required to support a given amount of retail sales), as the rate of change of sales densities in real terms (i.e. after allowing for inflation) over time.

15 Capacity in this chapter always refers to turnover capacity: that is, the turnover a centre would be expected to achieve if every retail unit operated at benchmark sales density levels – see 8.4.

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8.5 Aggregate sales densities can change for a number of reasons. One is the usual economists’ definition of productivity change, whereby retailers get better at using gross floorspace and manage to sell more goods for a given amount of space though a combination of better management of stocks, more efficient floor layouts, getting more customers through the door and converting more of the footfall into sales. This process will be accelerated as new floorspace, which may have a more modern and more efficient design, replaces old.

8.6 Sales densities have also been able to increase by making existing floorspace available for more time, either though Sunday opening or through longer opening hours on other days of the week.

8.7 Another way of increasing efficiency is to change the use of the space. Electrical stores, for example, have far higher sales densities relative to furniture stores. Consequently a shift in the mix of the use of retail floorspace from furniture stores to electrical stores would increase aggregate efficiency and would show up as productivity growth.

8.8 A variation on this is a change in the mix of goods sold within stores. If a store can sell higher value (rather than higher price) goods it will increase its real sales density. Alternatively, if items get smaller (as with many electronic goods), more can be sold from a given amount of space and this will also increase sales densities and add to productivity growth. Any productivity growth that we observe will be a combination of these three effects.

8.9 It is important not to confuse labour productivity and floorspace productivity. Not only are they measures of different things, they are likely to move in the opposite direction. Greater sales densities (i.e. greater floorspace productivity) can involve a greater labour input and, hence, lower labour productivity. Floorspace productivity is the focus of our attention here because of its crucial importance in the planning context to the determination of future floorspace requirements.

8.10 Because of this inherent uncertainty in projecting productivity, we have projected capacity on the basis of three different assumptions (please refer to the appendices for further details):

A High case of 2.8 per cent productivity growth per annum. A Moderate case of 2.2 per cent productivity growth per annum. A Low case of 1.5 per cent productivity growth.

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8.11 The High case gives an idea of what might happen if some of the rapid increases in productivity of recent years turn out to be sustainable rather than transitory. 8.12 The Moderate case is consistent with what would happen if much of the historical trends of the past 10 years had been due to one-offs (such as Sunday trading, longer opening hours etc.)

8.13 The Low case shows what would happen if we accept historic URPI assumptions.

Capacity in 2006 8.14 In order to assess future capacity we need to have an estimate of current/2006 capacity as well as future productivity growth. There are no official estimates of either capacity or spare capacity by retail centre (or at any other level), so we need to come up with our own view. To do this, we have taken each of the 300+ centres included within this study and interrogated their existing floorspace provision and estimated expenditure turnovers. Individual centre information is included within the appendices.

Future capacity and spare capacity 8.15 Once we have an estimate of the degree of spare capacity and spending by centre, it is relatively easy to estimate capacity for the existing space in the centre.16 Note that capacity here is measured in terms of the value (in £m at 2003 prices) of comparison goods sales that a centre can support. We then apply the productivity growth of each of the three scenarios referred to in 8.10 to this figure. Capacity can also increase by creating new retail space. This is represented by the schemes discussed in Stage 2B of the project and these can also be easily included in estimates of future capacity. Once we have projections of future capacity and future spending, it is straightforward to derive projections of future spare capacity and space requirements.

Space requirements (Timeline scenario) 8.16 By making further assumptions about the sales density of new retail space, the level of spare capacity can be translated into real world space requirements for individual centres and for boroughs. Again, because of considerable uncertainty, a number of scenarios have been tested to ensure sensitivity testing.

16 Capacity = Turnover / (1 – Spare capacity rate).

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8.17 Tables 67 to 71 provide a borough level breakdown of gross total comparison goods floorspace need for five year increments to 2031. Table 67: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2011) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments

Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 22,520 12,696 4,591 Camden 8,069 5,116 2,679 Enfield 8,326 4,296 972 Hackney 5,449 3,207 1,358 Haringey 9,875 4,962 909 Islington 6,754 3,870 1,491 Westminster 88,101 46,270 11,758 Total 149,093 80,418 23,758 North East City Of London 15,630 10,436 6,151 Tower Hamlets 15,916 11,716 8,251 Newham 27,160 18,443 11,251 Waltham Forest 7,480 4,310 1,696 Redbridge 14,633 8,852 4,083 Havering 15,104 8,640 3,308 Barking and Dagenham 4,649 2,723 1,133 Total 100,573 65,121 35,873 South East Southwark 19,274 12,771 7,407 Lewisham 8,257 4,563 1,516 Greenwich 10,318 6,145 2,701 Bexley 6,969 3,620 857 Bromley 14,220 6,957 966 Total 59,039 34,057 13,446 South West Croydon 24,774 12,763 2,854 Lambeth 6,360 3,542 1,216 Merton 5,654 2,564 15 Sutton 8,855 4,390 707 Kingston upon Thames 16,837 9,451 3,356 Richmond upon Thames 8,127 4,588 1,669 Wandsworth 13,337 6,958 1,696 Total 83,944 44,256 11,513 Hammersmith and West Fulham 5,484 3,068 1,074 Brent 11,172 6,351 2,374 Ealing 7,998 4,128 935 Harrow 6,950 3,167 46 Hillingdon 11,822 5,415 128 Hounslow 10,083 5,770 2,211 Kensington and Chelsea 30,574 20,906 12,930 Total 84,084 48,804 19,698

London Total 476,732 272,656 104,288 CAZ 97,148 52,976 16,534

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Table 68: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2016) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 57,538 35,897 18,602 Camden 18,676 12,165 6,962 Enfield 19,322 10,668 3,752 Hackney 11,780 6,952 3,094 Haringey 14,136 3,661 -4,709 Islington 14,951 8,736 3,770 Westminster 198,460 105,111 30,511 Total 334,862 183,191 61,983 North East City Of London 34,670 23,193 14,021 Tower Hamlets 33,544 24,114 16,579 Newham 59,112 39,851 24,458 Waltham Forest 16,394 9,571 4,117 Redbridge 26,487 13,990 4,003 Havering 34,188 20,212 9,042 Barking and Dagenham 10,147 5,994 2,675 Total 214,542 136,924 74,896 South East Southwark 43,982 29,555 18,026 Lewisham 19,029 11,051 4,675 Greenwich 23,930 14,819 7,538 Bexley 17,033 9,780 3,983 Bromley 33,576 18,011 5,572 Total 137,550 83,215 39,794 South West Croydon 54,753 29,145 8,681 Lambeth 14,640 8,549 3,680 Merton 13,628 7,023 1,745 Sutton 21,043 11,456 3,794 Kingston upon Thames 40,743 24,631 11,755 Richmond upon Thames 18,562 10,912 4,797 Wandsworth 31,299 17,565 6,588 Total 194,670 109,280 41,041 Hammersmith and West Fulham 12,462 7,248 3,079 Brent 25,596 15,159 6,819 Ealing 18,460 10,155 3,518 Harrow 16,470 8,372 1,900 Hillingdon 29,438 15,628 4,592 Hounslow 22,653 13,338 5,893 Kensington and Chelsea 68,674 47,134 29,921 Total 193,753 117,033 55,722

London Total 1,075,378 629,645 273,435 CAZ 217,917 119,276 40,446

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Table 69: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2021) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 104,967 68,404 40,102 Camden 33,935 22,837 14,247 Enfield 37,710 23,146 11,872 Hackney 22,883 14,676 8,323 Haringey 44,376 26,750 13,106 Islington 29,203 18,642 10,468 Westminster 424,381 264,580 140,881 Total 697,455 439,035 238,998 North East City Of London 64,282 44,454 29,106 Tower Hamlets 58,850 42,465 29,781 Newham 107,307 74,179 48,536 Waltham Forest 30,833 19,355 10,470 Redbridge 54,526 33,349 16,956 Havering 53,248 29,630 11,348 Barking and Dagenham 20,193 13,083 7,580 Total 389,239 256,516 153,779 South East Southwark 82,161 57,144 37,780 Lewisham 37,253 23,702 13,211 Greenwich 45,036 29,532 17,530 Bexley 33,443 21,138 11,613 Bromley 66,703 40,503 20,222 Total 264,597 172,018 100,356 South West Croydon 106,437 63,608 30,455 Lambeth 28,698 18,336 10,316 Merton 27,232 16,158 7,586 Sutton 41,322 25,196 12,713 Kingston upon Thames 76,253 49,012 27,926 Richmond upon Thames 34,851 21,972 12,002 Wandsworth 60,794 37,649 19,732 Total 375,586 231,931 120,731 Hammersmith and West Fulham 23,730 14,934 8,127 Brent 47,787 30,221 16,624 Ealing 35,682 21,747 10,960 Harrow 32,798 19,255 8,771 Hillingdon 57,674 34,542 16,636 Hounslow 42,165 26,515 14,400 Kensington and Chelsea 120,747 83,880 55,341 Total 360,584 231,094 130,859

London Total 2,087,461 1,330,595 744,723 CAZ 459,395 290,264 159,343

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Table 70: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2026) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments

Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 160,614 105,531 64,232 Camden 50,889 34,162 21,621 Enfield 60,115 38,143 21,668 Hackney 35,831 23,407 14,093 Haringey 61,658 35,302 15,541 Islington 44,989 29,116 17,214 Westminster 684,903 441,933 259,763 Total 1,098,999 707,594 414,133 North East City Of London 96,991 66,795 44,155 Tower Hamlets 71,383 61,759 42,957 Newham 50,505 111,983 74,103 Waltham Forest 47,631 30,426 17,525 Redbridge 87,475 55,478 31,489 Havering 87,680 52,294 25,762 Barking and Dagenham 32,482 21,583 13,412 Total 474,147 400,317 249,403 South East Southwark 74,331 84,400 55,938 Lewisham 33,261 36,551 21,343 Greenwich 70,437 46,847 29,161 Bexley 52,579 33,988 20,050 Bromley 55,727 66,372 36,859 Total 286,335 268,158 163,351 South West Croydon 110,457 93,245 45,299 Lambeth 44,504 28,890 17,182 Merton 42,542 26,057 13,698 Sutton 63,904 39,862 21,835 Kingston upon Thames 66,296 75,439 44,806 Richmond upon Thames 53,779 34,463 19,980 Wandsworth 93,270 58,754 32,875 Total 474,753 356,710 195,675 Hammersmith and West Fulham 35,154 22,156 12,410 Brent 74,460 48,004 28,169 Ealing 56,709 35,739 20,016 Harrow 51,341 31,203 16,105 Hillingdon 90,747 56,172 30,248 Hounslow 51,900 28,290 10,588 Kensington and Chelsea 177,885 122,210 80,468 Total 538,195 343,773 198,003

London Total 2,872,429 2,076,553 1,220,566 CAZ 736,098 478,818 285,919

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Table 71: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements (2006-2031) – Timeline scenario, fixed productivity growth, assumes centre specific capacity for additional developments Productivity growth Sub-region Borough 1.50% 2.20% 2.80% North Barnet 235,187 155,704 97,983 Camden 73,239 49,149 31,655 Enfield 90,350 58,567 35,486 Hackney 53,803 35,694 22,543 Haringey 96,151 58,308 30,826 Islington 66,517 43,607 26,969 Westminster 1,025,131 672,749 416,849 Total 1,640,378 1,073,776 662,311 North East City Of London 140,823 96,785 64,805 Tower Hamlets 109,741 72,860 46,077 Newham 127,028 164,844 110,971 Waltham Forest 71,424 46,518 28,431 Redbridge 132,335 85,921 52,216 Havering 132,436 81,872 45,152 Barking and Dagenham 49,238 33,195 21,545 Total 763,025 581,994 369,196 South East Southwark 128,887 121,641 81,499 Lewisham 60,297 31,098 33,464 Greenwich 105,332 70,826 45,767 Bexley 77,908 51,057 31,557 Bromley 108,095 51,440 60,306 Total 480,520 326,061 252,594 South West Croydon 191,986 100,507 34,074 Lambeth 66,240 43,614 27,183 Merton 63,096 39,588 22,516 Sutton 93,763 59,494 34,609 Kingston upon Thames 118,505 60,039 17,582 Richmond upon Thames 79,165 51,413 31,259 Wandsworth 136,966 87,639 51,817 Total 749,720 442,293 219,041 Hammersmith and West Fulham 50,226 31,868 18,537 Brent 110,715 72,471 44,698 Ealing 86,363 55,903 33,784 Harrow 76,258 47,570 26,737 Hillingdon 135,136 85,627 49,673 Hounslow 84,854 50,629 25,774 Kensington and Chelsea 252,643 172,404 114,134 Total 796,194 516,471 313,337

London Total 4,429,838 2,940,596 1,816,478 CAZ 1,097,827 724,460 453,321

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8.18 Table 72 summarises, for the sub-regions and for London as a whole, all of the various sub-scenarios and sensitivity tests that have been run for the Timeline scenario. These correspond to the different assumptions about productivity growth, and assumptions about the sales density of new space.

Table 72: Gross Total Comparison Goods Floorspace Requirements – Timeline scenario, 2006 – 2031- London summary

Space required Assumptions: (million square metres)

North South South Year Productivity growth, % North East East West West London CAZ 2011 1.5 0.15 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.48 0.10 2011 2.2 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.27 0.05 2011 2.8 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.02 2016 1.5 0.33 0.21 0.14 0.19 0.19 1.08 0.22 2016 2.2 0.18 0.14 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.63 0.12 2016 2.8 0.06 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.27 0.04 2021 1.5 0.70 0.39 0.26 0.38 0.36 2.09 0.46 2021 2.2 0.44 0.26 0.17 0.23 0.23 1.33 0.29 2021 2.8 0.24 0.15 0.10 0.12 0.13 0.74 0.16 2026 1.5 1.10 0.47 0.29 0.47 0.54 2.87 0.74 2026 2.2 0.71 0.40 0.27 0.36 0.34 2.08 0.48 2026 2.8 0.41 0.25 0.16 0.20 0.20 1.22 0.29 2031 1.5 1.64 0.76 0.48 0.75 0.80 4.43 1.10 2031 2.2 1.07 0.58 0.33 0.44 0.52 2.94 0.72 2031 2.8 0.66 0.37 0.25 0.22 0.31 1.82 0.45

8.19 As can be seen, alternative sets of assumptions produce some very different conclusions in terms of space requirements. Our view is that a productivity growth rate of 2.2 per cent per annum for all centres is the most appropriate.

8.20 We find that the need for new floorspace is very sensitive to assumptions made about retail space productivity growth (i.e. the sustainable rate of increase of sales densities of both existing and new space) and to assumptions about sales densities for new space.

• At one extreme, with productivity only growing at 1.5 per cent per annum and new space having a variable sales density related to the size and turnover of individual centres, there is an estimated gross

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total requirement within Greater London of an additional 1 million square metres gross in 2016. When developments in the planning pipeline are taken into account, the ‘net’ additional requirement is 0.48 million square metres gross in 2016 (See Appendix 11).

• At the other extreme, with 2.8 per cent productivity growth and where new space has a variable sales density related to the size and turnover of individual centres, there is an estimated requirement of only an additional 0.3 million square metres gross in 2016. When developments in the planning pipeline are taken into account, the ‘net’ additional requirement is 0.095 million square metres gross in 2016.

8.21 An assumption of productivity growth of 1.5 per cent per annum is commonly used in retail planning studies. However, we consider that this figure is based on out-of-date information and that more recent data indicates underlying productivity growth of 2.2 per cent per annum since the mid-eighties. We have also run scenarios on a 2.8 per cent productivity assumption as a higher case.

• With a variable sales density of new space and productivity growth of 2.2 per cent per annum, this produces an estimated need for some new space in every London borough and a gross total requirement of 2.9 million square metres in 2031 (including major projects that are already in the pipeline) or a ‘net’ additional requirement of 2.2 million square metres over and above major developments in the planning pipeline. With a productivity growth of 2.8 per cent per annum the gross total requirement including major projects in the pipeline decreases to 1.8 million square metres (See Table 4) or a ‘net’ additional requirement of 1.3 million square metres over and above major developments in the planning pipeline.

• Of the gross total requirement, over a third is in North London, a quarter is in the Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and the rest is approximately equally split between the remaining sub regions (see Figure 3).

• These space requirements (‘gross total’ and ‘net’ additional) all refer to gross floorspace; it should be noted that some studies refer to retail space in net terms (that is, sales area only); typically a conversion ratio of about 1.25:1 gross to net floorspace applies.

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8.22 Reducing estimates of space requirements, by using the 2.2 per cent productivity assumption, may appear to diminish the scope for regeneration opportunities that arise through new retail developments. This is not necessarily the case. A lack of need for net additions to space does not preclude a need for gross additions (i.e. replacement for derelict or otherwise unwanted space). Regeneration can be achieved through consolidation and restructuring and not just through expansion. This can lead to the focus moving towards the increased attractiveness of centres and not just increased size.

8.23 A detailed overview of the ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements for each borough is provided in the appendices (i.e the additional floorspace need over and above the developments contained in the pipeline).

8.24 Within Appendix 11 is a full breakdown of the ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements by borough and within Appendix 12 is a further breakdown of ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements by town centre.

8.25 The ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements have been calculated using the pipeline development information contained within Appendix 9. For each of the 5 year increments between 2006 and 2031 the additional floorspace contained within the development pipeline has been factored into the gravity modelling process to predict the changes in consumer behaviour likely to occur upon the completion of these schemes. The ‘gravitational pull’ of individual retail centres will be affected by the changing quantities of comparison floorspace and hence the flow of comparison goods expenditure will alter dependent upon a centre’s growth in relation to its alternate competing destinations. As the quantum of comparison floorspace enlarges within a centre due to its pipeline development commitments, it can more readily absorb the likely growth in comparison goods expenditure and attract spend away from less attractive destinations. The ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements for this centre, over and above the pipeline, will therefore diminish as trading capacity is reached. In addition, the ‘net’ additional floorspace requirements for competing centres impacted by the pipeline development will also reduce as comparison goods expenditure is diverted away and absorbed by the new scheme.

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9 LONDON-REST OF THE SOUTH EAST (ROSE) INTERACTION

Figure 15: London-Rest of South East region, as covered by RPG9

9.1 This project is linked to a wider assessment of retail need and provision across the whole of South East England and part of the East. In calculating London’s comparison goods floorspace needs and assessing the capacity of proposed development to accommodate them, Experian has taken into account expenditure flows in both directions across the London boundary. The gravity model is a live model built upon consumers’ stated and observed shopping patterns. It therefore factors in the interaction between centres, regardless of their geography. Consumer and expenditure flows both ways across the London boundary are implicit in the model.

9.2 Diversion from Greater London to the South East is already a major sales driver for centres such as Bluewater and Lakeside and, to a lesser degree, town centres such as Reading and Guildford. In each case, it is possible to assess and quantify this diversion. Experience shows that only the very largest developments impinge significantly on centres in the capital. For this reason, it is sensible to restrict developments to those over 30,000m2 in the South East into the wider gravity modelling exercise. At this stage no such developments have been incorporated in the analysis.

9.3 Centres outside Greater London exclude day trip tourism, which in some cases here is believed to contribute significantly to a centre's turnover.

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Only regular shopping trips, overnight tourism and international tourism is included, hence the apparently low expenditure from within Greater London to Milton Keynes, for example, which would be classified for the purposes of this project as day trip tourism. These figures are backed up by Experian's shopper surveys, which collect only regular shopping patterns and exclude occasional 'tourist' trips by the wording of the questions.

Spending in the Rest Of South East (RoSE) region 9.4 The following tables show the projected expenditure and growth within RoSE and compare it with London as a whole as well as those parts of London that fall within RoSE. The total volume of spend is comparable for both comparison and convenience goods. The proportional increase in spend is projected to be slightly lower than the equivalent growth in Greater London for both.

Table 73: Annual total resident spend on comparison goods: RoSE and London compared (£bn.) Average annual 2006 2031 growth 2006-31, % London 23.21 67.27 4.3 South East 30.80 88.37 4.3 Eastern England 6.11 18.58 4.5 Greater South East 60.01 174.2 4.3

Table 74: Annual total resident spend on convenience goods: RoSE and London compared (£bn.) Average annual 2006 2031 growth 2006-31, % London 11.84 17.32 1.5 South East 17.32 25.74 1.6 Eastern England 3.45 5.43 1.8 Greater South East 32.61 48.49 1.6

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Table 75: Annual total resident spend on other goods: RoSE and London compared (£bn.) Average annual 2006 2031 growth 2006-31, % London 53.86 75.98 1.4 South East 66.50 93.03 1.4 Eastern England 11.64 16.17 1.3 Greater South East 132.00 185.18 1.4

RoSE centre comparison floorspace and expenditure estimates, 2006 9.5 The following tables include an estimate of how much trade comes from within Greater London, excluding spend generated by commuter and day tourism trips. Lakeside and Bluewater are the retail destinations most dependent on London located outside the boundary, where their level of attractiveness and lack of competing out-of-town offer within the M25 create a high level of leakage.

Table 76: Top 20 retail centres in RoSE by floorspace (2006) Centre Goad Estimated Comparison estimate of comparison goods total goods expenditure comparison turnover, £m. from within goods London floorspace, sq. m Southampton 240,890 £1,078 0.0% Norwich 217,210 £1,115 0.0% Brighton 184,610 £940 0.0% Reading 183,740 £1,031 2.0% Milton Keynes 147,060 £870 0.0% Bluewater 140,600 £1,187 33.0% Peterborough 138,320 £630 0.0% Lakeside 135,410 £328 28.6% Retail Park Watford 131,820 £756 20.3% Ipswich 131,570 £658 0.0% Lakeside 127,980 £886 32.1% Maidstone 124,460 £669 2.0% Southend 110,320 £445 0.0% Chelmsford 107,950 £498 0.0%

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Centre Goad Estimated Comparison estimate of comparison goods total goods expenditure comparison turnover, £m. from within goods London floorspace, sq. m Luton 107,430 £437 1.0% Basildon 106,060 £501 1.1% Worthing 106,000 £536 0.0% Eastbourne 103,760 £469 0.0% Tunbridge 100,720 £536 1.0% Wells Colchester 99,120 £585 0.0%

Table 77: Top 20 retail centres in RoSE by expenditure (2006) Centre Estimated Goad Comparison comparison estimate of goods goods comparison expenditure turnover, £m. goods total from within floorspace, London sq. m Bluewater £1,187 140,600 33.0% Norwich £1,115 217,210 0.0% Southampton £1,078 240,890 0.0% Reading £1,031 183,740 2.0% Brighton £940 184,610 0.0% Lakeside £886 127,980 32.1% Milton Keynes £870 147,060 0.0% Watford £756 131,820 20.3% Guildford £684 98,940 2.0% Oxford £682 88,330 0.0% Maidstone £669 124,460 2.0% Ipswich £658 131,570 0.0% Peterborough £630 138,320 0.0% Crawley £597 94,800 2.0% Portsmouth £589 78,690 0.0% Colchester £585 99,120 0.0% Cambridge £577 75,820 0.0% Tunbridge £536 100,720 1.0% Wells Worthing £536 106,000 0.0% Basildon £501 106,060 1.1%

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Table 78: RoSE 2006-16 comparison goods expenditure estimates in constant 2003 prices (base scenario)

Centre name 2006 estimated turnover, £m 2016 projected turnover, £m

Bluewater 1,187 1,252 Norwich 1,115 1,272 Southampton 1,078 1,235 Reading 1,031 1,114 Milton Keynes 870 1,119 Brighton 940 1,057 Lakeside 886 970 Oxford 682 937 Portsmouth 589 866 Maidstone 669 811 Watford 756 825 Crawley 597 829 Guildford 684 796 Peterborough 630 804 Ipswich 658 754 Cambridge 577 734 Colchester 585 672 Bracknell 362 636 Tunbridge Wells 536 615 High Wycombe 446 615

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10 ONGOING ANALYSIS

10.1 The next phase of Experian's work with the GLA consists of sensitivity testing various development scenarios to quantify their impact on overall comparison floorspace need. Results from running the additional scenarios will be summarised in a standard set of tables.

11 FURTHER INFORMATION

11.1 For any further information regarding this report please contact:

Jonathan De Mello Director of Property Consultancy Experian - Business Strategies Cardinal Place | 6th Floor | 80 Victoria Street | London | SW1E 5JL T: +44 (0) 207 746 8255 | M: +44 (0) 783 711 4275 F: +44 (0) 207 746 8277 | E: [email protected]

www.business-strategies.co.uk/propertyconsultancy

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APPENDIX 1 - MOSAIC

Mosaic UK

A1.1 Our Mosaic classification system categorises all UK households and neighbourhoods into 62 distinct 'lifestyle types', which comprehensively describe their socio-economic and socio-cultural behaviour. More than 400 data variables have been used to build Mosaic and many of these are key drivers of housing demand (demographics, economic activity, occupations and household composition). The Illustration below highlights the variables that are used to derive Mosaic.

A1.2 The data is drawn from Census 2001 (approx 54%) and supplemented with Experian’s own Consumer Segmentation Database. The Consumer Segmentation Database provides coverage of all the UK’s 46 million adult residents and 23 million households from sources including the Electoral Roll, consumer credit activity, Post Office Address Files, Council Tax information and ONS local area statistics.

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A1.3 Each type and group is descriptively named, for example UK Mosaic type 4 is labelled 'Golden Empty Nesters', type 23 is labelled 'Industrial Grit', whilst type 41 is labelled ‘Families on Benefits’. A Mosaic type is assigned to each of the 1.6 million postcodes in the UK, allowing us to build a powerful picture about household characteristics. These in turn are aggregated to broader groups (described below), which we will use for this study.

Table 1: Mosaic UK groups Symbols of People with rewarding careers who live in sought-after A Success locations, affording luxuries and premium quality products. Families with focus on career and home, mostly younger B Happy Families age groups now raising children. Families who are successfully established in comfortable, Suburban C mature homes. Children are growing up and finances are Comfort easier. People living in close-knit inner city and manufacturing Ties of D town communities, responsible workers with Community unsophisticated tastes. Urban Young, single and mostly well educated, these people are E Intelligence cosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes. People who are struggling to achieve rewards and are Welfare F mostly reliant on the council for accommodation and Borderline benefits. Municipal Families on lower incomes who often live in large council G Dependency estates where there is little owner-occupation. Blue Collar People who though not well educated are practical and H Enterprise enterprising and may well have exercised their right to buy. Twilight Elderly people subsisting on meagre incomes in council I Subsistence accommodation. Grey Independent pensioners living in their own homes who are J Perspectives relatively active in their lifestyles. People living in rural areas where country life has not been K Rural Isolation influenced by urban consumption patterns.

A1.4 The Mosaic profile of residents living within each of the London boroughs has been calculated to help infer local spending levels. Figure 1 indicates the proportion of residents who fall within high, moderate and low spending Mosaic groups.

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Figure 1: Residential Mosaic Profile Of The London Boroughs (2006)

London Barking and Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden City of London Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Higher Spending Mosaic Groups Moderate Spending Mosaic Groups Lower Spending Mosiac Groups

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APPENDIX 2 - LIST OF CENTRES INCLUDED WITHIN THE ANALYSIS

Generation of the list

A2.1 The aim here was to generate a list of retail destinations that covered the significant majority of comparison goods expenditure from within London. This list includes centres identified in the London Plan list, as well as out-of-town malls, shopping parks, retail parks, neighbourhood centres, superstores and centres which lie outside London but absorb London residents' expenditure.

A2.2 The International, Metropolitan, Major and District centres listed in the London Plan were initially linked to distinct Goad plans. Some manipulation of individual Goad centre boundaries, in conjunction with the Greater London Authority (GLA), was required to match this as closely as possible to London Plan centres: for example, the West End, Fulham Road and Chelsea.

A2.3 The following additional destinations were added to this list:

6. All remaining Goad town centres within Greater London. 7. All retail parks covered by Goad with a high street shopping element. 8. Convenience Superstores 9. CAZ frontages

A2.4 This end list of centres was merged with Experian's retail centre list from outside Greater London, in order to treat border areas as accurately as possible and gauge the level of expenditure flows into and out of London.

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Table 2: List of centres

Centre Name Category Borough Source Barking & Dagenham Major centres Barking and Dagenham London Plan Chadwell Heath District centres Barking and Dagenham London Plan Dagenham & Heathway District centres Barking and Dagenham London Plan Beacontree Heath Additional Barking and Dagenham GOAD Centre Dagenham - Gorsebrook Additional Barking and Dagenham GOAD Centre Barking - Abbey Road Retail Park Additional Barking and Dagenham GOAD Retail Park Edgware Major centres Barnet London Plan Brent Street District centres Barnet London Plan Burnt Oak District centres Barnet London Plan Chipping Barnet District centres Barnet London Plan Church End, Finchley District centres Barnet London Plan Colindale/The Hyde District centres Barnet London Plan East Finchley District centres Barnet London Plan Golders Green District centres Barnet London Plan Hendon central District centres Barnet London Plan Mill Hill District centres Barnet London Plan New Barnet District centres Barnet London Plan North Finchley District centres Barnet London Plan Temple Fortune District centres Barnet London Plan Whetstone District centres Barnet London Plan Brent Cross Additional Barnet GOAD Centre London Gateway Welcome Break Motorway Service Station Additional Barnet GOAD Centre East Barnet Village Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Edgware - Apex Corner Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Edgware - Deansbrook Road Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Edgware - Hale Lane Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Finchley - Holders Hill Road Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Finchley Lane, Barnet, London Nw4 Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Friern Barnet Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Friern Barnet - Colney Hatch Lane Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Hendon - Childs Hill Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Hendon - Grahame Park Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Hendon - Market Place Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre New Barnet - Great North Road Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre West Hendon Additional Barnet Neighbourhood Centre Barnet - Friern Bridge Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Barnet - Pentavia Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Barnet - The Hyde Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Brent Cross - Staples Corner Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Edgware - Capitol Retail Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Finchley - Great North Leisure Park Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Park Royal - North Circular Road Additional Barnet GOAD Retail Park Bexleyheath Major centres Bexley London Plan Crayford District centres Bexley London Plan Sidcup District centres Bexley London Plan Welling District centres Bexley London Plan Bexley Additional Bexley GOAD Centre Erith District centres Bexley GOAD Centre Blackfen Road, Blackfen, Sidcup, DA15 8PR Additional Bexley Neighbourhood Centre Sidcup - Crittles Corner Retail Park Additional Bexley GOAD Retail Park Kilburn Major centres Brent London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Wembley Major centres Brent London Plan Cricklewood District centres Brent London Plan Ealing Road District centres Brent London Plan Harlesden District centres Brent London Plan Kenton District centres Brent London Plan Kingsbury District centres Brent London Plan Neasden District centres Brent London Plan Preston Road District centres Brent London Plan Wembley Park District centres Brent London Plan Willesden Green District centres Brent London Plan Alperton Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Manor Farm Road, Alperton, Wembley Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Shirland Road Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Willesden - Church Road Additional Brent Neighbourhood Centre Alperton - Quill Street Retail Park Additional Brent GOAD Retail Park Brent - Brent Park Additional Brent GOAD Retail Park Wembley - Olympic Retail Park Additional Brent GOAD Retail Park Asda - Wembley Additional Brent Convenience Superstore Bromley Metropolitan centres Bromley London Plan Orpington Major centres Bromley London Plan Beckenham District centres Bromley London Plan Crystal Palace District centres Bromley London Plan Penge District centres Bromley London Plan Petts Wood District centres Bromley London Plan West Wickham District centres Bromley London Plan Biggin Hill Additional Bromley GOAD Centre Chislehurst Additional Bromley GOAD Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Bickley Road, Widmore, Bromley Additional Bromley Neighbourhood Centre Station Approach, Hayes, Bromley Additional Bromley Neighbourhood Centre Orpington - Springvale Retail Park Additional Bromley GOAD Retail Park Sidcup - Ruxley Roundabout Retail Park Additional Bromley GOAD Retail Park Sainsburys - Bromley Additional Bromley Convenience Superstore Sainsburys - Orpington Additional Bromley Convenience Superstore Camden Town Major centres Camden London Plan Hampstead District centres Camden London Plan Kentish Town District centres Camden London Plan Swiss Cottage/Finchley Road District centres Camden London Plan West Hampstead District centres Camden London Plan Euston (London) Additional Camden GOAD Centre Kings Cross (London) Additional Camden GOAD Centre Haverstock Hill, Camden, London Nw3 Additional Camden Neighbourhood Centre Holborn - Lambs Conduit Street Additional Camden Neighbourhood Centre Holborn - The Brunswick Additional Camden Neighbourhood Centre Cheapside CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Fleet Street CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Leadenhall Market CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Liverpool Street CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Moorgate CAZ Frontage City of London London Plan Bank Additional City of London GOAD Centre Farringdon Additional City of London GOAD Centre Fenchurch Street Additional City of London GOAD Centre Holborn Additional City of London GOAD Centre Ludgate Hill & St Pauls Additional City of London GOAD Centre Aldersgate Street, Barbican, London Ec1, EC1A 4JR Additional City of London Neighbourhood Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Croydon Metropolitan centres Croydon London Plan Addiscombe District centres Croydon London Plan Coulsdon District centres Croydon London Plan Norbury District centres Croydon London Plan Purley District centres Croydon London Plan South Norwood District centres Croydon London Plan Thornton Heath District centres Croydon London Plan Upper Norwood District centres Croydon London Plan New Addington Additional Croydon GOAD Centre Addington Road, Selsdon, South Croydon, CR 2 8LB Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre London Road, Selhurst, Croydon Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre Waddon Way, Beddington, Croydon Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre West Croydon Additional Croydon Neighbourhood Centre Croydon - Purley Way Additional Croydon GOAD Retail Park Bluewater Additional Dartford GOAD Centre Ealing Metropolitan centres Ealing London Plan Southall Major centres Ealing London Plan Acton District centres Ealing London Plan Greenford District centres Ealing London Plan Hanwell District centres Ealing London Plan West Ealing Additional Ealing GOAD Centre Church Road, Ealing, London W7 Additional Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Greenford Avenue, Ealing, London W7 Additional Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Rockware Avenue, Greenford Additional Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Acton - West Five Centre Additional Ealing GOAD Retail Park Greenford - Westway Shopping Park Additional Ealing GOAD Retail Park Southall - Great Western Industrial Park Additional Ealing GOAD Retail Park

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Asda Western Road - London Additional Ealing Convenience Superstore Enfield Town Major centres Enfield London Plan Angel Edmonton District centres Enfield London Plan Edmonton Green District centres Enfield London Plan Palmers Green District centres Enfield London Plan Southgate District centres Enfield London Plan Enfield Wash Additional Enfield Neighbourhood Centre Hammond Road, Enfield Additional Enfield Neighbourhood Centre New Southgate Additional Enfield Neighbourhood Centre Edmonton - Ravenside Retail Park Additional Enfield GOAD Retail Park Enfield - Colosseum Park Additional Enfield GOAD Retail Park Enfield - Lee Valley Leisure Centre Additional Enfield GOAD Retail Park Tesco - Enfield Additional Enfield Convenience Superstore Eltham Major centres Greenwich London Plan Woolwich Major centres Greenwich London Plan Greenwich West District centres Greenwich London Plan Plumstead District centres Greenwich London Plan Thamesmead District centres Greenwich London Plan Greenwich Peninsula - Greenwich Shopping Park Additional Greenwich GOAD Retail Park Dalston Major centres Hackney London Plan Finsbury Park District centres Hackney London Plan Mare Street District centres Hackney London Plan Stoke Newington District centres Hackney London Plan Shoreditch Additional Hackney GOAD Centre City Road, Old Street, London Ec1, EC1V 1JB Additional Hackney Neighbourhood Centre Fulham Major centres Hammersmith and Fulham London Plan Hammersmith Major centres Hammersmith and Fulham London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Shepherds Bush District centres Hammersmith and Fulham London Plan Brook Green Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Fulham Palace Road, Hammersmith and Fulham, London Sw6 Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Kensington - Olympia Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Munster Road, Hammersmith and Fulham, London Sw6, SW 6 4EW Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre New Kings Road, Hammersmith and Fulham, London Sw6 Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Parsons Green Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Stamford Brook Additional Hammersmith and Fulham Neighbourhood Centre Wood Green Metropolitan centres Haringey London Plan Crouch End District centres Haringey London Plan Green Lanes District centres Haringey London Plan Muswell Hill District centres Haringey London Plan Tottenham District centres Haringey London Plan West Green Road District centres Haringey London Plan Harringay - Green Lanes Additional Haringey GOAD Centre Seven Sisters Additional Haringey GOAD Centre Highgate Additional Haringey Neighbourhood Centre Tottenham Hale - Tottenham Hale Retail Park Additional Haringey GOAD Retail Park Harrow Metropolitan centres Harrow London Plan North Harrow District centres Harrow London Plan Pinner District centres Harrow London Plan Rayners Lane District centres Harrow London Plan South Harrow District centres Harrow London Plan Stanmore District centres Harrow London Plan Wealdstone District centres Harrow London Plan Hatch End Additional Harrow GOAD Centre Pinner Road, Harrow on the Hill, Harrow Additional Harrow Neighbourhood Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Harrow - High Road Retail Park Additional Harrow GOAD Retail Park Tesco - Harrow Additional Harrow Convenience Superstore Tesco - Pinner Additional Harrow Convenience Superstore Romford Metropolitan centres Havering London Plan Collier Row District centres Havering London Plan Elm Park District centres Havering London Plan Harold Hill District centres Havering London Plan Hornchurch District centres Havering London Plan Rainham District centres Havering London Plan Upminster District centres Havering London Plan Main Road, Gidea Park, Romford, RM 2 5EL Additional Havering Neighbourhood Centre Romford - Eastern Avenue Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - Gallows Corner Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - North Street Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - Rom Valley Way Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Romford - Roneo Corner Retail Park Additional Havering GOAD Retail Park Tesco - Hornchurch Additional Havering Convenience Superstore Tesco - London Additional Havering Convenience Superstore Uxbridge Metropolitan centres Hillingdon London Plan Eastcote District centres Hillingdon London Plan Hayes District centres Hillingdon London Plan Ickenham Additional Hillingdon Neighbourhood Centre Northwood District centres Hillingdon London Plan Ruislip District centres Hillingdon London Plan Yiewsley/West Drayton District centres Hillingdon London Plan Heathrow Airport Additional Hillingdon GOAD Centre Northwood Hills Additional Hillingdon GOAD Centre

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Ruislip Manor Additional Hillingdon GOAD Centre Sipson, Hounslow Additional Hillingdon Neighbourhood Centre Hayes - Glencoe Road Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Hayes - Hayes Bridge Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Hayes - Lombardy Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Ruislip - Victoria Retail Park Additional Hillingdon GOAD Retail Park Hounslow Metropolitan centres Hounslow London Plan Chiswick Major centres Hounslow London Plan Brentford District centres Hounslow London Plan Feltham High Street District centres Hounslow London Plan Heston Moto Motorway Service Station Additional Hounslow GOAD Centre Bath Road, Heston, Hounslow, TW 3 3DH Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre Great West Road, Osterley, Isleworth, TW 7 5NG Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre London Road, Osterley, Isleworth, TW 7 4BX Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre Vicarage Farm Road, Heston, Hounslow, TW 5 0DR Additional Hounslow Neighbourhood Centre Brentford - Gateway Centre Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Chiswick - Gunnersbury Avenue Retail Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Feltham - Apex Retail Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Feltham - Leisure West Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Hayes - Hayes Road Retail Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Park Royal - Royale Leisure Park Additional Hounslow GOAD Retail Park Angel Major centres Islington London Plan Nags Head Major centres Islington London Plan Archway District centres Islington London Plan Barnsbury Additional Islington Neighbourhood Centre Seven Sisters Road, Hackney, London N4 Additional Islington Neighbourhood Centre Kensington High Street Major centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Kings Road East Major centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Earls Court Road District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Fulham Road (east) District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Fulham Road (west) District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Kings Road (west) District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Notting Hill Gate District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Portobello Road District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan South Kensington District centres Kensington and Chelsea London Plan Gloucester Road Additional Kensington and Chelsea GOAD Centre Sloane Street Additional Kensington and Chelsea GOAD Centre Golborne Road Additional Kensington and Chelsea Neighbourhood Centre Holland Park Avenue, Kensington and Chelsea, London W11 Additional Kensington and Chelsea Neighbourhood Centre Ladbroke Grove Additional Kensington and Chelsea Neighbourhood Centre Kingston Metropolitan centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan New Malden District centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan Surbiton District centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan Tolworth District centres Kingston upon Thames London Plan Chessington & Hook Additional Kingston upon Thames GOAD Centre Hawks Road, Kingston upon Thames, Additional Kingston upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre New Malden - Shannon Corner Retail Park Additional Kingston upon Thames GOAD Retail Park Brixton Major centres Lambeth London Plan Streatham Major centres Lambeth London Plan Clapham High Street District centres Lambeth London Plan Lower Marsh CAZ Frontage Lambeth London Plan Stockwell District centres Lambeth London Plan Tulse Hill District centres Lambeth London Plan West Norwood District centres Lambeth London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Dorset Road, Lambeth, London Sw8 Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre Knights Hill, Lambeth, London Se27 Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre Lambeth Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre West Norwood & Tulse Hill - Tulse Hill Additional Lambeth Neighbourhood Centre Tesco - London Additional Lambeth Convenience Superstore Catford Major centres Lewisham London Plan Lee Green District centres Lewisham London Plan Lewisham Major centres Lewisham London Plan Blackheath District centres Lewisham London Plan Deptford District centres Lewisham London Plan Downham District centres Lewisham London Plan Forest Hill District centres Lewisham London Plan New Cross District centres Lewisham London Plan Sydenham District centres Lewisham London Plan Bromley Road, Lewisham, London Se6, SE 6 2NZ Additional Lewisham Neighbourhood Centre Catford - Bromley Road Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Catford - Catford Hill Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Deptford - Bestwood Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Southwark - Southernwood Retail Park Additional Lewisham GOAD Retail Park Sainsburys - London Additional Lewisham Convenience Superstore Wimbledon Major centres Merton London Plan Mitcham District centres Merton London Plan Morden District centres Merton London Plan Wimbledon Village Additional Merton GOAD Centre Coombe Lane, Merton, London Sw20, SW20 0AX Additional Merton Neighbourhood Centre Merton High Street, Merton, London Sw19, SW19 1BD Additional Merton Neighbourhood Centre Merton - Merton Industrial Park Additional Merton GOAD Retail Park

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Merton - Priory Retail Park Additional Merton GOAD Retail Park Wimbledon - Plough Lane Additional Merton GOAD Retail Park East Ham Major centres Newham London Plan Stratford Major centres Newham London Plan Canning Town District centres Newham London Plan East Beckton District centres Newham London Plan Forest Gate District centres Newham London Plan Upton Park District centres Newham London Plan Beckton Triangle & Gateway Retail Parks Additional Newham GOAD Centre London City Airport Additional Newham GOAD Centre Maryland Additional Newham Neighbourhood Centre Upton Park - Green Street Additional Newham Neighbourhood Centre Beckton - Gallions Reach Additional Newham GOAD Retail Park Beckton - Jenkins Lane Leisure Park Additional Newham GOAD Retail Park Ilford Metropolitan centres Redbridge London Plan Barkingside District centres Redbridge London Plan Gants Hill District centres Redbridge London Plan South Woodford District centres Redbridge London Plan Wanstead District centres Redbridge London Plan Goodmayes Additional Redbridge GOAD Centre Newbury Park Additional Redbridge GOAD Centre Ilford - Ilford Lane Additional Redbridge Neighbourhood Centre The Broadway, Woodford, Woodford Green Additional Redbridge Neighbourhood Centre Newbury Park - King George Avenue Retail Park Additional Redbridge GOAD Retail Park Walthamstow - Walthamstow Avenue Retail Park Additional Redbridge GOAD Retail Park Richmond Major centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan East Sheen District centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Teddington District centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan Twickenham District centres Richmond upon Thames London Plan Whitton District centres Richmond Upon Thames London Plan Barnes Additional Richmond Upon Thames GOAD Centre High Street, Hampton, TW12 1NH Additional Richmond upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre Kew Additional Richmond upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre Percy Road, Twickenham Additional Richmond upon Thames Neighbourhood Centre Richmond (London) - Kew Retail Park Additional Richmond upon Thames GOAD Retail Park Twickenham - Ivybridge Retail Park Additional Richmond Upon Thames GOAD Retail Park Sainsburys - Hampton Additional Richmond upon Thames Convenience Superstore Sainsburys - Richmond Additional Richmond upon Thames Convenience Superstore Peckham Major centres Southwark London Plan Borough High Street CAZ Frontage Southwark London Plan Camberwell District centres Southwark London Plan Dulwich - Lordship Lane District centres Southwark London Plan Elephant and Castle District centres Southwark London Plan Surrey Quays District centres Southwark London Plan Walworth Road District centres Southwark London Plan London Bridge Additional Southwark GOAD Centre Southwark Bridge Road, Southwark, London Se1 Additional Southwark Neighbourhood Centre St. James's Road, Southwark, London Se1 Additional Southwark Neighbourhood Centre Peckham - Cantium Retail Park Additional Southwark GOAD Retail Park Sutton Metropolitan centres Sutton London Plan Cheam District centres Sutton London Plan North Cheam District centres Sutton London Plan Rosehill District centres Sutton London Plan Wallington District centres Sutton London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Worcester Park District centres Sutton London Plan Carshalton Additional Sutton GOAD Centre Beddington Farm Road, Beddington, Croydon Additional Sutton Neighbourhood Centre Asda - Croydon Additional Sutton Convenience Superstore Tesco - Sutton Additional Sutton Convenience Superstore Lakeside Additional Thurrock GOAD Centre Lakeside Retail Park Additional Thurrock GOAD Centre Canary Wharf Major centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Bethnal Green District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Chrisp Street District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Crossharbour District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Poplar District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Roman Road (east) District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Watney Market District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Whitechapel District centres Tower Hamlets London Plan Brick Lane Additional Tower Hamlets GOAD Centre Bethnal Green - Cambridge Heath Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Mile End Road, Tower Hamlets, London E1, E 1 4NT Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Prescot Street, Tower Hamlets, London E1 Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Whitechapel Road, Tower Hamlets, London E1 Additional Tower Hamlets Neighbourhood Centre Stratford - Hancock Road Retail Park Additional Tower Hamlets GOAD Retail Park Whitechapel - Anchor Retail Park Additional Tower Hamlets GOAD Retail Park Walthamstow Major centres Waltham Forest London Plan Bakers Arms District centres Waltham Forest London Plan Leytonstone District centres Waltham Forest London Plan North Chingford District centres Waltham Forest London Plan South Chingford District centres Waltham Forest London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source Wood Street District centres Waltham Forest London Plan Highams Park Additional Waltham Forest Neighbourhood Centre Leyton - High Road Leyton District centres Waltham Forest London Plan Leyton - Leyton Mills Retail Park Additional Waltham Forest GOAD Retail Park Clapham Junction Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Putney Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Tooting Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Wandsworth Major centres Wandsworth London Plan Balham District centres Wandsworth London Plan Battersea Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Battersea Park Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Clapham - Lavender Hill Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Meyrick Road, Wandsworth, London Sw11 Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Putney - Lower Richmond Road Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Replingham Road, Wandsworth, London Sw18 Additional Wandsworth Neighbourhood Centre Balham - Balham High Road Retail Park Additional Wandsworth GOAD Retail Park Wandsworth - Hurlingham Retail Park Additional Wandsworth GOAD Retail Park Wandsworth - Smugglers Way Retail Park Additional Wandsworth GOAD Retail Park Asda Roehampton Vale - London Additional Wandsworth Convenience Superstore Knightsbridge International centres Westminster London Plan West End International centres Westminster London Plan Queensway/Westbourne Grove Major centres Westminster London Plan Edgware Road/Church Street NT District centres Westminster London Plan Edgware Road South CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Harrow Road District centres Westminster London Plan Marylebone High Street CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Praed Street/Paddington District centres Westminster London Plan

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Centre Name Category Borough Source St John's Wood District centres Westminster London Plan Warwick Way/Tachbrook St CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Victoria Street CAZ Frontage Westminster London Plan Belgravia Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Maida Vale Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Moreton Street, Pimlico, London Sw1 Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Blenheim Terrace Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Boundary Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Clifton Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Crawford Street Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Fernhead Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Kilburn Lane Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Lauderdale Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Lisson Grove Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Nugent Terrace Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Westbourne Green Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre Westminster - Westbourne Park Road Additional Westminster Neighbourhood Centre

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APPENDIX 3 - EXPERIAN'S PROVISION OF RETAIL DATA

GOAD

A3.1 Experian owns Goad, a unique source of town centre and retail park data. The Goad database comprises floor plans of over 1,200 town centres and 1,500 retail parks across the country and is updated annually by our team of professional surveyors. These plans can be produced in either hard or electronic format.

A3.2 The example above is part of the Goad plan of Knightsbridge, focusing on the intersection of the Brompton Road and Sloane Street.

A3.3 In addition to the maps, the Goad database contains all the data that sits behind these plans. It includes key details on each individual outlet such as:

10. Full address. 11. Category (e.g. comparison, convenience, retail service, leisure service). 12. Trading activity (e.g. clothing, department store, supermarket). 13. Fascia (e.g. John Lewis, M&S, Zara, Apple). 14. Parent company (e.g. Bauger, Arcadia, Wal-Mart, Inditex). 15. Floorspace.

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A3.4 Clearly, it is the floorspace figures that are of most relevance to the project in question. They are based on Ordnance Survey surface area calculations rather than trading area floorspace. In this project they include multiple floors, for example in department stores, by taking an additional 70% of the ground floorspace for each additional storey. The approach is consistent across all Goad plans.

A3.5 In the project, all non-comparison retail and non-retail floorspace has been filtered off, establishing a pure figure for comparison retail floorspace for each centre under examination.

Estimating floorspace for non-Goad centres

A3.6 For the majority of centres in the list generated above, Goad can be used as a consistent source of floorspace information. Approximately 8% of centres within the London Plan list are not covered by Goad. Experian's database of neighbourhood centres has been used for these centres to generate floorspace estimates that are comparable to Goad.

A3.7 Experian's neighbourhood centre database includes over 15,000 clusters of retail and details their composition by count of store type.

A3.8 There is some overlap between centres in the neighbourhood database and Goad within Greater London. Average floorspace figures from Goad for individual categories of retailer within these small centres have been applied to similar sized centres not covered by Goad. Total floorspace, based on the individual elements of a centre, can then be estimated. Such estimates within the summary tables are identified as ‘additional neighbourhood centre’.

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APPENDIX 4 - EXPERIAN’S DEFINITION OF RETAIL CENTRES

GOAD Centre Boundaries

A4.1 Each retail centre that is surveyed by Experian GOAD has a distinct set of discernable boundaries. The following series of plans document the GOAD boundaries for the International, Metropolitan and Major centres contained within the London Plan.

A4.2 Where possible the GOAD boundary definitions have been matched with existing retail centre definitions to ensure consistency.

A4.3 Please note these GOAD plans are for reference purposes only and must not be distributed or published without prior permission.

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Figure 2: GOAD plan of London West End

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Figure 3: GOAD plan of Knightsbridge

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Figure 4: GOAD plan of Bromley

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Figure 5: GOAD plan of Croydon

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Figure 6: GOAD plan of Ealing

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Figure 7: GOAD plan of Harrow

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Figure 8: GOAD plan of Hounslow

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