A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Vulnerability in

Number 03/2002 13 March 2002

Summary

• ActionAid reports adequate household access to food in less secure parts of District, although the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) continue to face limited access to both food and clean drinking water. The displaced households are currently depending on wild foods, with a few getting assistance from relatives living in other parts of the district that are outside the camps. Furthermore, only a few of these households are able to access food from the fields and markets due to poor harvests over past seasons and lack of income. Katakwi District officials and humanitarian organizations anticipate that disarmament in the Karamoja Region will help restore civil security, increasing opportunities for IDPs to cultivate in the coming season. Sanitation and health conditions in the IDPs settlements are poor, although no significant outbreak of diseases has been reported over the past three months.

• There has been significant improvement in the civil security in Bundibugyo, Kabarole, Kamwenge, Kasese and Kyenjojo Districts, where an estimated 150,000 to 180,000 IDPs live in settlements. Some IDPs have relocated to settlements closer to their homes, improving their access to land and food security. A study by OXFAM Great Britain, Kabarole Research Center and Deutse Enwecklungs Dienst-Uganda (DED-Uganda) found that many IDPs would like to return home, however, they require government’s assurance of security. The report recommended increased advocacy for the IDPs, as well as support to both government and districts to resettle the IDPs.

• Normal levels of household food stocks are reported in most of Uganda with no significant food availability problems being identified. Stable and relatively low crop prices in many of the districts also favor countrywide access to food for market-dependent households. National food supply projections are still good until the next harvest in June. The main exceptions continue to be Usuk and Kaplebyong Counties in Katakwi District where households are moderately food insecure.

• Seasonal dry conditions were experienced for most of February. By early March, areas of central, Lake Victoria Basin, eastern and parts of western and southwestern Uganda reported sporadic rainfall that developed into well distributed rainfall in some areas, marking the start of the first season of 2002. The Uganda Department of Meteorology issued its medium range seasonal forecast for the March to May period, predicting increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over western, southwestern and northwestern Uganda; while most eastern, southeastern and northeastern districts have increased likelihood of receiving near normal to below normal rainfall. Districts in central Uganda have a higher likelihood for near normal to above normal rainfall. Meteorologists have indicated an increased likelihood for the development of an El-Nino during the second half of 2002. The Department of Meteorology and FEWS NET will continue monitoring developments and providing updates.

• District officials report intensified field activities with onset of the rainy season, as farmers in central, eastern, southwestern and western Uganda carry on with land preparation and sowing crops. Farmers in northern and northwestern regions are preparing land to be ready for planting when the rainy season becomes well established in late March or early April. Adequate vegetation and water favor livestock access to pastures and drinking water in southern and southwestern Uganda. Normal dry conditions limit access to water and pastures in Karamoja, although no serious problems are reported. Livestock health is good in all pastoral areas.

• A slight increase in wholesale commodity prices has been observed since the beginning of the year as farmers and traders withhold stocks in anticipation of better prices. January to February 2002 Appreciation for Contributions

prices remain lower than those observed in 2001. Crop supply to • District Agriculture and Veterinary Officials, most markets, however, remains adequate. Regional crop exports to particularly Mbarara, Kotido and Moroto East African and Great Lakes countries are relatively low, compared Districts. to past years, with minimal maize sales to Kenya. Nonetheless, • Chief Administrative Officer, Katakwi District market opportunities in Southern are expanding, offering an • Department of Meteorology, Uganda outlet for Ugandan maize. The Uganda Grain Traders Association • ActionAid/Katakwi has sold 23,000 MT to Zambia since November 2001. An extra • Africare/Kabale • Market Information Service, IITA 10,000 MT is to be exported to Zambia. • OXFAM GB in Uganda • Uganda Grain Trader’s Association

A USAID Project Managed by Chemonics International Inc. ♦ P.O. Box 7856, , Uganda Telephone 256-41-231140 ♦ Fax: 256-41-347137 ♦ Email: [email protected] A Monthly FEWS NET Newsletter on Food Security Number 03/2002 2 and Vulnerability in Uganda 13 March 2002

1.0 Review of Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises

1.1 Katakwi District, Eastern Uganda According to ActionAid, one of the humanitarian organizations active in Katakwi District, households in more civil secure areas of the district have adequate food stocks and enjoy sufficient access to food with no observable stress. The main concern continues to be the IDPs in Usuk and Kapelebyong Counties -- estimated at over 80,000 -- who face limited access to both food and clean drinking water. These households mainly depend on wild foods with a few getting assistance from relatives living in other parts of the district outside the camps. Further, only a few are able to access food from the fields and markets because of limited access to land and cultivation in the past seasons and a general lack of income generating activities, respectively. With the ongoing disarmament of the Karimojong in neighboring Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit Districts, Katakwi District officials and humanitarian organizations hope that the civil security situation will improve. This would increase the IDPs access land to cultivate this season, which is expected to start later this month.

Sanitation and health conditions in the IDPs settlements in Katakwi District remain poor although no significant outbreak of diseases has been reported over the past three months. Malaria, upper thoracic infections and diarrhea are the main diseases affecting the IDPs, especially as the wet season begins in the district.

1.2 The Rwenzori Region Significant improvement has been recorded in the civil security situation in this region, which covers Bundibugyo, Kabarole, Kamwenge, Kasese and Kyenjojo Districts, although many IDPs continue to live in government protected settlements and have not returned to their homesteads due to sporadic attacks. There are an estimated 150,000 to 180,000 IDPs living in settlements mainly in Bundibugyo, Kabarole and Kasese Districts (OXFAM, March 2002). Some of the IDPs were relocated to settlements closer to their homes, enabling them to access land -- by day and return at night -- and were able to grow crops. This has allowed them to take advantage of favorable growing conditions during the past season. Near normal to normal harvests were realized, therefore greatly improving the food security situation in the region.

In November 2001, OXFAM Great Britain, Kabarole Research Center and DED-Uganda carried out a study in the Rwenzori Region to better understand the IDPs’ perception and attitude towards resettlement. This study was to generate information on their perceived needs and protection and provide policy recommendations to assist in planning for their future resettlement. The study findings, published in a report released in March 2002, indicate that 90 percent of the IDP respondents want to return home. However, 52 percent still require assurance of security to person and property, 25 percent lack shelter and 6 percent are waiting for others so they can return. The main problems perceived by the IDPs were poor access to cultivable land (43 percent), inadequate food access (26 percent) and income (12 percent) and (10 percent) of the IDPs interviewed. At least 82 percent of the IDPs want the government to make a statement guarantying their safety before they return home. The report recommended increased advocacy for the IDPs, as well as support to both government and districts to resettle the IDPs.

2.0 Current Food Security Conditions and Outlook For the Next Four Months

Various district administrations, humanitarian organizations and non-government organizations report normal household food stocks in most parts of the country with no significant food security stress. In , Africare indicates households there have adequate access to food from last season’s harvest. World Vision, which is active in , reports that there is ample food in the district that ensures sustained normal consumption for households, including displaced families living in settlements. Stable and relatively low crop prices in many of the districts also favor countrywide access to food for market dependent households. National food projections are still good until the next harvest due in June. The main exceptions continue to be Usuk and Kapelebyong Counties in Katakwi District where households are experiencing moderate food insecurity.

A Monthly FEWS NET Newsletter on Food Security Number 03/2002 3 and Vulnerability in Uganda 13 March 2002

3.0 National Trends: Hazard Information

3.1 Rainfall Conditions Normal dry conditions were experienced for most of February. By early March, areas of central, Lake Victoria Basin, eastern and parts of western and southwestern Uganda reported sporadic rainfall that became well established in some areas. This effectively signifies the start of the first season of 2002. The Meteosat images (Figure 1) represent the spatial distribution and intensity of rainfall in Uganda and collaborates reports from the districts of normal dry conditions over February.

Figure 1: Rainfall Estimates Based on Meteosat Images Current: February 2002 Normal: February Current Vs. Normal: February

No Rainfall Low Rainfall

Moderate Rainfall Heavy Rainfall FEWS NET/Uganda, March 2002 Source of data: NOAA

Following the conclusion of the Eastern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum in Eldoret, Kenya in February 2002, the Uganda Department of Meteorology carried out a country specific analysis to derive its medium range seasonal forecast for the March to May 2002 period. The department forecasts an increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over western, southwestern and northwestern Uganda; while most eastern, southeastern to northeastern districts have increased likelihood of receiving near normal to below normal rainfall. Districts in central Uganda have a higher likelihood for near normal to above normal rainfall.

At the regional meeting in Eldoret, weather scientists noted that the March to May 2002 seasonal forecast indicates an increased potential for the development of an El Niño during the second half of 2002. Data that support this forecast include a slight warming of sea surface temperatures in North Western Indian Ocean, and cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over parts of the South Western Indian Ocean. The Department of Meteorology and FEWS NET will continue monitoring developments and providing updates on this event.

3.2 Crop Cultivation Activities and Conditions District agriculture officials report intensified field activities with onset of the rainy season, as farmers in central, eastern, southwestern and western Uganda carry on with crop cultivation and sowing crops, including pulses -- beans, cow peas, Irish and sweet potatoes and cereals (mainly maize). Farmers in northern and northwestern regions are reportedly opening and clearing land to prepare for planting later in March or early April when the rainy season becomes well established. District officials also report that adequate soil moisture benefits perennial crops, such as bananas and coffee.

A Monthly FEWS NET Newsletter on Food Security Number 03/2002 4 and Vulnerability in Uganda 13 March 2002

3.3 Livestock Conditions The start of the rains in pastoral areas of southern and southwestern regions is replenishing ground water and rejuvenating vegetation. Livestock currently, therefore, have adequate access to drinking water and pastures. Normal dry conditions in the northeastern Karamoja region (Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit Districts) have reduced availability of pasture and drinking water and limit their access by livestock. District officials and NGOs active in these districts, however, report that many pastoralists remained in the districts depending on meager vegetation and Figure 2: Wholesale Crop Prices (UShs per 100 Kg), water and only a few pastoralists moved December to February for 2000/2001 vs. 2001/2002 their livestock to dry season grazing areas Banana (Mbarara) in neighboring districts. There is no serious risk of livestock’s limited access to 25,000 pastures and water, nor have there been Dec. 2000 to Feb. 2001 any outbreak of diseases. Livestock 20,000 Dec. 2001 to Feb. 2002 health is normal.

4.0 Market Trade and Trends, Food 15,000 Availability, and Access UShs per 100 Kilogram UShs

A slight increase in wholesale commodity 10,000 prices has been observed since the beginning of the year as farmers and traders withhold stocks in anticipation of 5,000 better prices. Nonetheless, crop supply to December January February the markets remains adequate with no Beans (Mbale) bottlenecks observed. Wholesale prices for the period December 2001 to February 60,000 2002 remain lower than for the same 55,000 Dec. 2000 to Feb. 2001 period in 2000 and 2001 as observed in 50,000 Dec. 2001 to Feb. 2002 sample markets (Figure 2). This suggests 45,000 comparatively better access to 40,000 commercially available food for those 35,000 households that depend on the market to 30,000 acquire food. 25,000 UShs per 100 Kilograms UShs 20,000

Regional crop exports to East African and 15,000

Great Lakes countries has been relatively 10,000 low compared to past years, with minimal 5,000 sales of maize to Kenya, a traditional December January February export market for Ugandan maize. The Maize (Iganga)

Uganda Grain Traders Association is 30,000 exporting maize to Zambia where approximately 23,000 MT has been sold Dec. 2000 to Feb. 2001 since November 2001 on a contract that 25,000 Dec. 2001 to Feb. 2002 still has 10,000 MT more to be fulfilled. The Zambian market has helped provide 20,000 an outlet for Uganda maize and contribute to improving maize prices as observed 15,000

since January 2002, making up for the low per 100 Kilograms UShs volume of trade with countries of East Africa. 10,000

5,000 December January February Source: Market Information Services and FEWS NET, March 2002