Report: Impact of the Drought in the San Joaquin Valley of California
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Impact of the Drought in the San Joaquin Valley of California A Study Funded by Wells Fargo Foundation California State University, Fresno July 2015 Overgrown Boat Ramp Lake Success: Sierra Reservoir, Eastern San Joaquin Valley Wildflowers grow where water should be. A recent rain has greened the hillsides and the lakebed but has done little to reverse the dwindling water level. The boat ramp is a full 100 yards shy of the current water level. Geographic Area: Town of Porterville which has run out of water. Photograph: Neil Chowdhury Principal Investigator Dr. Lynnette Zelezny, Provost Co-Principal Investigator, Project Director Dr. Xuanning Fu, Associate Dean of College of Social Sciences Editor Dr. Gillisann Harootunian, Director, University Initiatives Co-Project Director David Drexler, Henry Madden Library Faculty/Staff Researchers Dr. Antonio Avalos, Department of Economics Neil Chowdhury, MFA, Department of Art and Design Dr. Fayzul Pasha, Department of Civil and Geomatics Engineering Dr. Samendra Sherchan, Department of Public Health Jes Therkelsen, MFA, Department of Mass Communication and Journalism Dr. Chih-Hao Wang, Department of Geography and City and Regional Planning Dr. David Zoldoske, California Water Institute Sargeant Green, California Water Institute Photographer Cary Edmondson, University Communications Department Table of Contents Introduction …………………………………………………………………………..... i 1. Severity of the Drought and its Impact on Agriculture and Use of Energy ……... 1 Editorial Snapshot: Is There a “Central” Valley? ……………………………... 53 Photo Spread: The Vineyard ………………………………………………….... 54 Video Vignette: Switching to Almonds: Drought Impact on Farming and People ……………………………………………………………………... 57 2. The Economic Impact of the Drought in the California San Joaquin Valley …...58 Editorial Snapshots: Who Are They?: Moving from Economic Impact to Human Impact ….. 72 The Shadow Economy: How to Document the Un-Documented? ….…. 73 Food Insecurity in the San Joaquin Valley, with a video vignette …...… 74 Sharing the Bounty: Fresno State Food Insecurity Project 3. Water Usage and Residential Water Consumption in the California San Joaquin Valley …………………………………………………..………...….. 75 Intra-Chapter Snapshot: A Census-Designated Place: A Glimpse into One Disadvantaged Community ………………………………………….… 89 4. Public Health Implications of Drought ...........................................................……. 90 Editorial Snapshots: The Health Drought ……………………………………………..……. 112 From Economic Distress to Psychological Distress …………..……… 113 Map: San Joaquin Valley: Environmental Justice Areas ……………..………. 114 Video Vignette: East Porterville: Drought Impact on one Disadvantaged Community ………………………………………………………………..…. 115 Conclusion and Recommendations ………………………………………………… 116 References ……………………………………………………………………….….. 121 Appendices Appendix 1 Maps …………………………………………………………….…….… 129 Appendix 2 Annotated bibliography …………………………………………….…… 134 Appendix 3 Stakeholder organizations, with contact information ……………….….. 145 Appendix 4 Data Sources (URL links) ……………………………………………..… 151 INTRODUCTION For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its recorded history. When examined by using two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium, the current drought was determined to be the most severe in the last 1,200 years, with 2014 moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years (Griffin & Anchukaitis, 2014). The rainy season of 2014–15 has resulted in disappointment for the fourth straight year: the drought has deepened. The Sierra Nevada snowpack is only 5% of average, one-fifth the size of the smallest ever recorded, prompting Governor Jerry Brown to announce the state’s first mandatory water reductions, aiming at cutting water use by 25%. Brown promised more enforcement in cities and actions against water agencies in groundwater-depleted areas that have not shared data with the state (Grossi, 2015). Historically, the state of California has faced many droughts, and several studies have been completed to assess the impacts on different sectors. These studies have considered the entire state, and not focused on the San Joaquin Valley, the center of agriculture in the state. The impact of late 1980s drought in California on the societal and environmental costs was assessed by Gleick and Nash (1991). The Institute for Water Resources (IWR) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also published a report on the 1987–1992 drought, focusing on all of California. The lessons that were learned from this study were published in Dziegielewski, Garbharran & Langowski, 1993. The Pacific Institute published a report on the drought from 2007 to 2009. The report analyzed the impacts on California’s economy and environment (Christian-Smith, Levy, & Gleick, 2011). Recently the Center for Watershed Science, University of California Davis (UC Davis) published “Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought on for California Agriculture,” a report focusing on the current drought’s impact on the state’s agriculture (Howitt, Medellín- Azuara, MacEwan, Lund, & Sumner, 2014). This was followed on May 31, 2015 by “Preliminary Analysis: 2015 Drought Economic Impact Study.” Also issued was the “Preliminary 2014 Drought Economic Impact Estimates in Central Valley Agriculture” (Howitt, Medellín-Azuara, MacEwan, & Lund, 2014) which studied all 25 counties of the Central Valley. None of the reports focused on the San Joaquin Valley’s agriculture, an industry of significance. The story of the San Joaquin Valley has largely gone untold, being included as one chapter within the history of the State of California. The drought has changed that, with the story of the San Joaquin Valley, complete with interactive maps and high tech reader resources, published almost weekly in the New York Times and other major media. The San Joaquin Valley has become the focus of a national conversation. To better understand the impact of drought on the San Joaquin Valley, and so to inform the national conversation, Fresno State conducted a drought impact study in spring 2015, funded by the Wells Fargo Foundation. The study was conducted by a selected team of faculty and staff at Fresno State, focused on the goal of delivering usable information for public officials, private officials, and the general public, on the range of impacts (economic, public health, municipal) resulting from the drought. i Chapter 1 Severity of the Drought and its Impact on Agriculture and Use of Energy Dr. Fayzul Pasha, Department of Civil and Geomatics Engineering Abstract The San Joaquin Valley of California is historically known for its agricultural production and ranks as one of the highest agricultural producers in the world. It produces a wide variety of crops, livestock, and poultry. Agriculture contributes significantly towards the economy of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Adverse events in agriculture will result in multiple adverse effects in the region’s economy, which can impact employment, population migration, and wage levels and food prices which the most vulnerable residents can experience in the most direct and harshest manner. For this reason, this study of the drought’s impact on agriculture and use of energy sets the stage for this report. Although there are numerous studies conducted on the economic impacts of the historical droughts in California, there are a limited number of studies to assess the economic impact focusing on the SJV. This study focuses on a key economic impact of the recent drought on the SJV, specifically the impact on energy usage and agricultural revenue, in its eight counties (Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Tulare). Agriculture consumes a huge amount of water and energy. The availability of surface water, which is directly affected by the amount of precipitation, is decreasing as a result of the lower precipitation in recent years. A year that has the mean annual precipitation much lower than the historical mean precipitation can be defined as a drought year. With this definition, a tremendous drought has been affecting the SJV in recent years starting in 2012. This drought is not only lowering the surface water availability but also affecting the groundwater depth, as there is not enough surface water to recharge the groundwater basins. SJV agriculture is heavily dependent on groundwater which needs to be pumped from a significant depth, causing high energy consumption. It is therefore expected that the drought has a significant impact on energy consumption. By examining the historical trends related to precipitation, streamflow, reservoir water storage, irrigation water use, and groundwater depth, the impact of the drought was assessed. Agriculture, water, and energy usage are highly correlated. As noted, energy consumption increases from heavier pumping as a result of lower groundwater levels, lower streamflow, and lower water levels in lakes and reservoirs due to the drought. Therefore, this study is structured as follows: 1. Examining the impacts of drought on surface water availability including streamflow and water storage in lakes and reservoirs and groundwater storage. 2. Examining the impacts of the above decreased surface water availability and groundwater storage on agriculture and energy consumption. 1 3. Assessing the final impact of increased energy consumption