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GN Store Nord Master’s thesis The Conglomerate Discount SOTP Valuation of GN Store Nord Supervisor: Christian Würtz Author: Martin Frich Date of Submission: 15th May 2019 Page Count: 80 (excl. bibliography & appendices) Characters incl. spaces: 181.925 Standard Pages: 80 Programme: MSc Finance & Investments Abstract-_ Page 1 of 127 128 Abstract-_ 1. Abstract The term ‘conglomerate discount’ refers to a phenomenon where corporate entities engaged in different industries are traded below the combined value of its subsidiaries. This thesis investigates the existence of a conglomerate discount to the stock of GN Store Nord on 27th February 2019 when its latest annual report was published. Initially, a comprehensive literature review establishes the relevance of considering a conglomerate discount. The rationale behind corporate diversification is often described as market power, internal capital markets, resource and skills transference and diversification. However, a multitude of drawbacks related to manager entrenchment, personal risk reduction, private control benefits, agency costs and organisational cost disadvantages are identified. The subsequent review of empirical evidence suggests a negative effect on stock prices due to corporate diversification, although no general consensus of the magnitude was found. GN is structured as a conglomerate with operations in hearing aids as well as the call centre and office industries in GN Hearing and GN Audio. A strategic analysis of both segments was conducted to identify the key non-financial value drivers. Both segments show promise with great outlooks to the macroeconomic and industry specific factors as well as valuable internal resources. Looking ahead, the main difficulties for both segments lie in the intensifying competitive environments which might limit long term revenue growth and profitability. To investigate the presence of a conglomerate discount in the stock of GN Store Nord, a valuation of each subsidiary was made using the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) framework. The segments were valued using a discounted cash flow approach, while the recent acquisition of Altia Systems was estimated at transaction value. The results from the SOTP valuation estimates a fair price per share of DKK 333.64 as of 27th February 2019. Relative to the observed share price of DKK 324.00 on the valuation date, an implied conglomerate discount of ~3% was found. A subsequent discussion from an investor point-of- view determined that abnormal returns, independent of the underlying performance would be realisable if either GN Hearing or GN Audio are sold off. Page 1 of 127 128 -_Abstract 1. Abstract ................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Context and motivation ........................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Problem Statement.................................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Scope of the paper .................................................................................................................................... 6 3. Conglomerate Mergers and the Conglomerate Discount ..................................................... 7 3.1 Models of Value Creation and Destruction in Conglomerate Mergers ............................................ 7 3.2 Empirical evidence in Corporate Diversification ............................................................................... 10 3.3 Equity Analysts Approach to the Conglomerate Discount .............................................................. 11 4. Research Model .................................................................................................................... 13 5. Introduction to GN Store Nord ............................................................................................ 14 5.1 History ...................................................................................................................................................... 14 5.2 Company Description ............................................................................................................................ 16 5.3 GN Store Nord’s Share Price Development ...................................................................................... 18 5.4 Summarized - GN Store Nord Infographic ........................................................................................ 19 6. Industry Analysis and Outlook .............................................................................................20 6.1 The Hearing Aids Industry .................................................................................................................... 20 6.2 The CC&O Industry ............................................................................................................................... 26 7. Strategic Model and Framework .......................................................................................... 31 7.1 Model Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 31 8. Strategic Analysis - GN Hearing ..........................................................................................32 8.1 PESTLE ................................................................................................................................................... 32 8.2 Porter’s Five Forces ................................................................................................................................ 35 8.3 VRIO ........................................................................................................................................................ 37 9. Strategic Analysis - GN Audio ..............................................................................................40 9.1 PESTLE ................................................................................................................................................... 40 9.2 Porter’s Five Forces ................................................................................................................................ 42 9.3 VRIO ........................................................................................................................................................ 45 10. Financial Analysis .................................................................................................................47 10.1 Reclassification of Financial Statements .............................................................................................. 47 10.2 Definition of Peer Group by Segment ................................................................................................. 50 10.3 Profitability Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 54 10.4 Risk Analysis ............................................................................................................................................ 56 11. SWOT Analysis .....................................................................................................................59 11.1 GN Hearing ............................................................................................................................................. 60 11.2 GN Audio ................................................................................................................................................ 61 12. Forecasting the Financial Value Drivers ..............................................................................63 13. Cost of capital .......................................................................................................................68 13.1 WACC ....................................................................................................................................................... 68 14. Valuation ...............................................................................................................................72 14.2 DCF Valuation - GN Hearing .............................................................................................................. 74 14.3 DCF Valuation - GN Audio.................................................................................................................. 74 14.4 Benchmarking Against Traded Multiples ............................................................................................ 75 14.5 SOTP - GN Store Nord......................................................................................................................... 75 14.6 Sensitivity Analysis by Segment ............................................................................................................ 77 15. Discussion of the Conglomerate Discount...........................................................................78 16. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................79
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