Meeting Basic Educational Need in North Cambridge

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Meeting basic educational need in North Cambridge A submission from Chesterton Community College to the February 2017 meeting of the Cambridgeshire Children and Young People’s Committee 19 February 2017 Executive summary This submission responds to the Education Officer’s paper “Review of Secondary Education in Cambridge”, dated 28 February 2017.

We ask the Children and Young People’s Committee to make a firm decision to support Recommendation (c) of the paper, the planned new build at Chesterton Community College, on a clearly specified timetable, with completion for September 2019.

Chesterton’s overriding priority is to meet the basic need for high-quality secondary education in North Cambridge. The need is illustrated below, using Local Authority figures:

Sept 2016 210 pupils Chesterton

355 pupils 80 pupils North Cambridge Academy Pupils 65 pupils Net outflow to schools outside North Cambridge living in 25% Chesterton increase or NCA (91 pupils) catchment 2016-2019 240 pupils Chesterton (assuming expansion)

446 pupils 150 pupils North Cambridge Academy (full) Net outflow to schools Sept 2019 56 pupils outside North Cambridge

According to LA data, there will be a 25% increase (91 pupils) in the number of state school pupils living in Chesterton and NCA’s catchments by summer 2019, compared to 2016. Even if Chesterton expands, and North Cambridge Academy is full with 150 Year 7 students, 56 students will still need to find places elsewhere.

But those places will not be available. Here are the LA’s stark figures for Year 7 places city-wide (positive numbers indicate a shortfall of places, negative is a surplus):

Shortfall of Year 7 places, assuming Chesterton intake of 210 North (incl IVC) South Total Sep-17 -25 -95 -120 Sep-18 32 -25 7 Sep-19 50 -3 47 Sep-20 74 88 162 Sep-21 124 187 311 Sep-22 158 168 326 By Sept 2019 there will be a city-wide shortage of around fifty Year 7 places, and that number rises sharply in the following years. These figures are solid predictions based on existing housing, and not

1 on assumptions about new housing (which would dramatically increase these numbers). The LA paper has more detail, but the conclusion is clear: the LA needs to pull every lever at its disposal, as hard as possible, as soon as possible, to have a chance of meeting this startling level of demand.

Returning to Chesterton, parents are very concerned about the possibility that their children may not be able to access a place at the school, and over 1,170 people have signed a petition in support of the new build. Other considerations are these:

1. Social inclusion. Both secondary schools in North Cambridge (Chesterton and North Cambridge Academy) are comprehensive schools with a broad intake. If there is a shortage of places in North Cambridge, disadvantaged students will suffer most. Middle class parents may afford private school, may be willing to drive their children across town, or may mount more effective appeals.

2. Equity for students. All school pupils deserve a school environment they can be proud of. Every other secondary school in Cambridge has enjoyed a major capital investment in recent years. Most recently Bottisham announced a £18m expansion, and the expansion at St Bede’s (initiated at the same time and for the same reasons as Chesterton’s) has gone ahead. Chesterton’s site is ageing, and this expansion provides a welcome opportunity to dramatically re-imagine the school buildings, to the benefit of all pupils.

3. Opportunity and timing. At the specific request of the Local Authority in 2013, Chesterton has worked with the LA architects on detailed plans for a £10m new build that would vastly improve the school site, and would allow Chesterton to increase its PAN by two forms of entry. These plans are well developed but currently on hold.

A £10m new build in a densely populated part of Cambridge could take three years to plan and execute. Since we have plans in place, we could hope to complete in Sept 2019 if we got moving now. But you can’t turn a project like this on and off like a tap; and it is no good waiting until the need is desperate before starting to plan. To ensure that the additional places are available in time, a decision must be taken now.

4. North Cambridge Academy. The LA and CMAT (North Cambridge Academy’s parent MAT) are legitimately concerned about the effect of expanding Chesterton when the nearby North Cambridge Academy is currently under-subscribed. We want to see our sister school thrive and flourish, but we do not believe that attempting to limit Chesterton’s intake is the way to achieve that goal. We elaborate in Section 3.

5. Chesterton. Chesterton is an exceptionally good school. The Schools Minister Nick Gibb wrote in Spring 2016 to tell us that Chesterton is one of the top 100 schools in the country. In 2016 we had another record year in our exam results, and the recently-published league tables put us in the top 5% nationally. All subjects are taught by specialist teachers, and the school is abuzz with activity.

However, as a standalone academy Chesterton’s finances are vulnerable. Moreover, the effect of repeated disappointment and delay has been hugely destabilising, and takes a real toll on senior leaders. Insofar as the interests of schools (as well as students and parents) come into the equation, the interests of all schools should be considered equitably.

1 Meeting basic need The overriding priority of the Local Authority is to provide enough school places to meet the demand from local students. All the evidence is that, unless we take action now, there will be insufficient secondary school places in the city, and in North Cambridge, by 2019/2020 (see the table above).

So the need is coming, it is coming soon, and it is very large. If, in 2019, North Cambridge parents find themselves having to compete for places at their local schools, and some are forced to send their children further afield, then there is likely to be great public concern. Parents will legitimately ask why the local authority, and councillors, have failed to make adequate provision.

Over 1170 people have signed a petition1 asking “that the County Council’s Children and Young People’s Committee make a clear commitment, with a date, to fund the expansion of Chesterton Community College, and the building investment which supports that expansion.”

1.1 What has happened so far Members of the committee will be aware that the Local Authority approached all Cambridge secondary schools urgently in 2013, asking them to consider how they could expand their intake.

Chesterton is full already and, given the imminent demographic changes, we are anxious that we will soon be unable accept all the students from our catchment area who want to study at Chesterton, let alone all first-choice applications. We were therefore very excited about the new-build possibility, and invested great deal of time and energy with the LA architects over nine months to develop detailed plans for an imaginative new build at Chesterton. These plans would allow us to expand by a third, with two new forms of entry. They would also dramatically improve an ageing school site for all pupils.

In the middle of 2015 all these plans were put on hold while the Local Authority commissioned a new, independent study of the demographic projections. The consultants reported in May 2016, and the LA then conducted a further review of its own. As the strategy paper says “In each case, the broad outcomes of the review of future demand demonstrated that the growing demand for places would create a shortfall in provision across the City towards the end of the current decade.”

For North Cambridge the consultant’s report showed:

 Without any new housing, by 2030 there will be a 48% increase in secondary student numbers, from 2,500 to 3,700.

 If the expected new housing is built, there will be an 85% increase by 2030 (4,600 students).

The LA strategy paper (para 3.3) presents a startling Chart 1, which shows that from September 2018 there will be more demand for Year 7 places than the City (including Impington Village College) can supply. This shortage increases sharply before settling at around a shortfall of 300 places in 2023. These figures are not speculative, or based on new housing. They are based on students already resident in Cambridge, and attending Cambridge primary schools.

1 http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/chesterton-expansion

1.2 Admissions at Chesterton Chesterton is already full, even before the upcoming demographic pressure really bites. Here are the facts on applications to Chesterton for 2016 and 2017:

First choice First or second First, second, or third Sept 2016 200 294 375 Sept 2017 214 326 394 Chesterton’s PAN is 180, but since September 2015 we have admitted 205-210 students to meet this demand. (2015 was a “bulge year” for Milton Road.) Even over-admitting in this way, Chesterton is already in the position where we cannot admit all students to make Chesterton their first choice.

Despite increasing our intake, we have increased both the number and the proportion of disadvantaged students in our intake.

We also typically receive around 100 in-year applications from parents who have recently moved to Cambridge or want to move their child from a local school.

Here are the facts on Chesterton’s actual intake, for the last four years, for which robust information is available2:

Chesterton Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Total Year 7 Chesterton intake 176 183 207 209 from within Chesterton catchment 120 128 154 139 from within NCA catchment 46 41 43 31 from outside North Cambridge 10 14 10 39 Year 7 cohort living in Chesterton’s catchment 167 173 194 175 of which % going to Chesterton 71.9% 74.0% 79.4% 79.4% Notice that

 An increasing percentage of the students leaving Chesterton’s catchment primary schools are choosing to come to Chesterton, now nearly 80%.

 Sept 2016 is an anomalous year, in which the cohort of students moving into Year 7 from Chesterton’s catchment primaries actually fell, from 194 to 175. This will not persist, as the next section discusses.

 A decreasing number of students from North Cambridge Academy’s catchment are coming to Chesterton, even as Chesterton’s total intake is increasing.

2 Data for 2013-5 is from the LA; for 2016 data is from the school, since LA data is not yet available

1.3 Demographic forecasts Here is data from the Local Authority showing their forecast of how many Year 7 state-school students will be resident in Chesterton and North Cambridge Academy’s catchments:

North Shortfall in Cambridge existing Chesterton Academy capacity catchment catchment TOTAL (180+150) Sep -15 194 204 398 68 Sep-16 175 180 355 25 Sep-17 185 170 355 25 Sep-18 228 186 414 84 Sep-19 230 216 446 116 Sep-20 235 226 461 131 Sep-21 246 217 463 133 Sep-22 241 244 485 155 Sep-23 273 242 515 185

This table shows the shortfall in current capacity in North Cambridge (PAN of 180 at Chesterton and 150 at North Cambridge Academy). Chesterton is stretching its physical resources to meet this demand by admitting 210 pupils (30 more than PAN), but by 2019 that will be nowhere near enough.

Points worth noting:

 These figures are not guesswork: they are based on the number of students who are actually resident in North Cambridge and attending state primary schools at the moment.

 Even if Chesterton continues to over-admit 210 students, and North Cambridge Academy is completely full, by 2019 there is a shortfall of 86 secondary school places.

 This shortfall gets worse, and stays worse; the longer range projections (not shown here) suggest that the shortfall stabilises at around 100 places.

 Much new residential building is planned for North Cambridge. Its timing is uncertain, and these figures do not make any allowance for demand from new-build housing. However the University site in North Cambridge is well under way.

1.4 North Cambridge students choosing other schools One might wonder: do all students from North Cambridge primaries go to North Cambridge Academy or Chesterton? No, they do not. Parents of North Cambridge students are already exercising choice in where they send their children. Here are data for the last three years:

Destination of pupils leaving North Cambridge primary schools Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Chesterton CC 166 169 197 North Cambridge Academy 60 73 99 Coleridge CC 5 1 3 Netherhall 3 2 2 Parkside CC 4 10 13 Impington VC 66 41 45 Cottenham VC 0 0 1 Comberton VC 2 4 3 St Bede's 22 7 22 Swavesey VC 0 0 1 Castle 3 6 3 Granta 2 2 0 However, other schools simply cannot mop up the extra demand from North Cambridge described above. St Bede’s, Impington, and Parkside are all under their own demographic pressure. For example, according to the LA Baseline Forecasts, the Coleridge catchment area is due to see a 30% increase in Y7 pupils between 2015 and 2020 (218 to 285); the Netherhall catchment a 77% increase (133 to 236); and the Impington catchment a 18% increase (171 to 201). This will almost certainly mean increased demand for places at St Bede's, Parkside, and Impington from people living geographically close to the school, and reduced opportunities for those living in North Cambridge.

In short, surrounding schools are likely to decrease their intake from North Cambridge, rather than increase it. The increased demand in North Cambridge will have to be met by North Cambridge.

Moreover, the traffic goes both ways. In Sept 2016 Chesterton admitted 39 students from outside North Cambridge.

2 Chesterton and its site Chesterton Community College has worked extremely hard over the last 10 years to improve standards and outcomes for the young people in the local community, and we are now one of the top 100 non-selective state schools in the country according to Nick Gibb. Our commitment has established a reputation in the community as an inspiring school. The strength of our ethos ensures that students from a diverse range of backgrounds and experiences genuinely work and live together as a community, caring for one another and relishing the challenge of academic excellence.

Our outcomes for students have improved consistently year on year and we are delighted that the new Progress 8 measures confirm that not only do we deliver these excellent outcomes in terms of attainment, but also in progress, which is significantly beyond national expectations. This applies to all groups of students, including disadvantaged students for whom we achieve outcomes far surpassing those across most of Cambridgeshire. Some of our headlines from 2016 include:

 79% of all students gained at least English and maths grade C, 52% of disadvantaged students did.

 The school’s progress 8 score for all students was 0.7, for disadvantaged students 0.2.  41% of all grades A or A*

Our school is one of the few in Cambridgeshire that has been able to fill all vacancies with well qualified subject specialists. As we move into even more challenging times our established networks enable us to continue to ensure high quality staff for the years to come. We have strong relationships with parents and in our most recent parent survey 90% would recommend our school to others. However, we are concerned that if there is uncertainty over our development, particularly after the setback linked to Darwin Green, we become less attractive as a school for inspirational and ambitious staff.

Vagueness about timescales and admissions is proving unsettling for our community.

2.1 The Chesterton site Chesterton has a constrained site in a densely populated area. The buildings are old, the dining facilities are inadequate, and we have no good, large performance spaces. The centre of the school site is… a car park.

Every other secondary school in the city and its immediate area has enjoyed substantial new-build investment recently, including Bottisham (£18m announced Nov 2016), Parkside, Coleridge, North Cambridge Academy, St Bede’s, and Netherhall. Even aside from the issues of demographics, it seems only equitable to offer students at Chesterton the same investment in site and facilities has been offered in other secondary schools in the area.

The proposed new build is an imaginative scheme that would replace the central car park with two leafy quadrangles separated by a large new block containing new dining facilities, performance space, and art studios. There are beneficial knock-on effects right across the site, so all students will benefit.

2.2 Capital bids The school has worked hard to access the only stream of capital funding open to it, the government’s Condition Improvement Fund (CIF). This fund is massively over-subscribed and only funds condition improvement, where buildings are effectively falling apart, and not expansion. Using the CIF funding Chesterton has managed to keep an ageing site at a reasonable standard, but has been unable to create truly 21st century spaces for students or provide adequate communal spaces.

3 North Cambridge Academy CMAT’s anxiety about student numbers at North Cambridge Academy is absolutely legitimate.

It is tempting to suggest limiting intake at Chesterton until North Cambridge Academy is full. But we believe that such a policy would be misguided (not least for North Cambridge Academy), for a number of reasons:

 The demographics are absolutely clear that Cambridge will soon have a serious and increasing shortage of secondary places. New capacity is desperately needed. As noted above, new capacity takes years to plan and build, so we should get on with it now, or it will arrive too late.

 The LA figures show that by 2019 North Cambridge would have a shortfall of over 80 Year places, even if North Cambridge Academy was completely full and Chesterton continued to over-admit. Moreover, Chesterton’s expansion to date has been accompanied by a

decrease in the number of students Chesterton accepts from North Cambridge Academy’s catchment. So there is no reason why Chesterton’s expansion would prevent North Cambridge Academy from being fully subscribed. Indeed the LA’s paper shows that expansion at North Cambridge Academy will also be required, and we support that.

 Limiting Chesterton is unlikely to be an effective way of supporting NCA. If NCA were still undersubscribed despite a substantial shortfall of Year 7 places, increasing that shortfall is extremely unlikely to help.

 It directly contradicts a desire to support parental choice. Our top priority should be the outcomes for students, not the interests of providers.

 It directly contradicts repeatedly-expressed government policy, to encourage successful schools to expand.

In view of this thinking, we specifically ask the Children and Young People’s committee not to link progress on Chesterton’s new build to progress on student numbers at North Cambridge Academy. Doing so would not respect parental choice, would damage Chesterton by imposing an indefinite delay, and would be demeaning to North Cambridge Academy.

The right way forward is for North Cambridge Academy to become a flourishing attractive school that students want to attend. And it is on the path to doing just that.

 It is well led, and has a supportive MAT.  It has a wonderful new build.  It has a good Ofsted report.  It was the Cambridge News Secondary School of the Year 2016.  In recent years the Local Authority has brought on stream 3.5 new forms of entry in North Cambridge Academy’s feeder primary schools; that translates to 70 new pupils/year.  The new Darwin Green school was awarded to CMAT by the Regional Schools Commissioner specifically because of “the support to both North Cambridge Academy and the new Darwin Green School of being jointly managed with physical proximity when they are both at relatively small sizes of secondary schools”.  The new North Cambridge train station, opening in 2017, will have a substantial effect on North Cambridge Academy’s intake demographic.

These changes may take some time to work through, but collectively they will have a substantial effect.

Chesterton and North Cambridge Academy are very nearby each other, and Chesterton stands ready to support NCA on its journey, in whatever way they would find helpful.