Monthly Food Security Report for : June 26, 2002

Summary

■ The dominant characteristic of the 2002/2003 agricultural season since its beginning in May has been low to moderate rainfall throughout the country. Localized, scattered showers preceding the first dekad of June gave way to a better distribution of precipitation in the month’s second dekad, allowing planting to move forward more quickly. As of June 20, more than 60% of the monitored stations for which results were sent to the weather service recorded a shortage in total rainfall. Compared to the normal totals for 1971-2000, this year’s totals are less at 84% of the monitored stations.

■ Thanks to good rain distribution, the number of villages that have planted nearly doubled between the first and second dekads, rising from 25% to 55% of Niger’s 10,084 farming villages.

■ Except for Gaya (Sud Dosso), where crops are mostly in the height-growth stage, most plants are in the emergent stage. The recent widespread planting and normal crop growth bode well for the beginning of the 2002-03 season.

■ Animals are generally eating feed left over from 2001 and drinking from wells, bore holes and permanent watering holes while waiting for ponds to refill.

■ Households in the towns of Say, Loga, Tchinta, Mayahi and Aguié, which were targeted as areas of high food insecurity, are using survival strategies based on migrating and reducing the number of meals eaten. Following a fact-finding mission, the Government and its partners have adopted a plan to ease the situation of these populations.

■ Information collected by the SIMC (Système d’Information sur les Marchés de Céréales) [National Cereals Market Information System] shows a drastic increase in the price per sack of millet in June, following the normal moderate rise over the past three months. In , prices rose by 42%, 121%, 65% and 12%, compared with 1997, 1999, 2000 and 2001, respectively. The increase is caused by stockpiling resulting from the season’s slow beginning.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. , Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR

2

1. Rainfall

As of June 20, more than 60% of the monitored stations for which results were sent to the weather service recorded a shortage in total rainfall. The most serious shortages were recorded in the , and Myrriah areas, while the Niamey and regions showed higher than normal totals. This year’s totals are less than the normal totals for 1971-2000 at 84% of the stations monitored. Nevertheless, favorable weather conditions led to heavy rainfall in towns in the western and central parts of the country, where rainfall totals as of June 20 exceeded 100 mm. significant precipitations in the Tillabery region led to flooding that destroyed 50 ha of rice (Bongoukoarey) and caused major damage to millet crops ().

During the first two dekads of June, there was little precipitation anywhere in the country. The scattered showers of the first dekad gave way to more widespread rains during the second dekad, which allowed growers to continue the planting begun in May at a steadier pace.

2. Planting Conditions

At the end of the first dekad of June, 2553 villages, or 25% of Niger’s 10,084 farming villages, began planting mainly millet, sorghum, maize, cowpeas and groundnuts. As of June 20, this number had reached 5538 villages, or 55% of the country’s farming villages. The number of villages that had planted doubled in the second dekad thanks to good water conditions and good spatial distribution of the rainfall, which remained moderate (Table 1). As of June 20, planting conditions were still propitious for a good beginning to the agricultural season, compared with conditions in 2001, when excess rainfall allowed 5640 villages to plant during this period.

Table 1: Planting Conditions As Of June 20, 2002

Regions Number of Planted in Villages having planted (second dekad of June) agricultural first dekad 2002 2001 DIFFERENCE villages of June 2002 No. Percentage No. Percentage No. Percentage (#) (%) (#) (%) (#) (%) 217 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 559 0 37 7 86 15 -49 -8 Dosso 1376 720 1218 89 1034 75 +184 +4 Maradi 2183 572 1491 68 1223 56 +268 +12 1380 243 889 64 926 67 -37 -3 Tillabery 1658 902 1290 78 907 55 +383 +23 Zinder 2685 106 587 22 1438 54 -851 -32 C.U.N.* 26 10 26 100 26 100 0 0 Total for 10,084 2553 5538 55 5640 56 -102 -1 Niger * Niamey Urban Community

Source: Department of Agriculture

The increased rate of planting in all areas of the country eased fears caused by the season’s slow start. Dissipation of uncertainty is the forerunner to a psychological effect that could reassure the farmers and encourage them to keep up their work.

3. Crop Development

All crops in all areas of the country are mainly in the emergence stage. Advanced stages (height growth) predominate in Gaya (Dosso). The advanced stage of plant growth in Gaya is supported by

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR

3 observation of satellite images of biomass (NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Figure 1), which show a significant change in plant tissue in the southern region between the 12th and 13th parallel of latitude in the southwestern part of the country (Gaya and Tapoa). Elsewhere, in the agricultural regions in the eastern and western parts of the country, regeneration is localized and scattered; plants are at the emergence stage. The fact that the emergence stage is widespread as of June 20 means that the agricultural season is shaping up well.

The probability that the crops planted will reach their maturation stages will depend on agricultural and weather conditions in upcoming weeks. Meanwhile, any producers whose crops are subject to failure due to drought or predators may, with the support of agricultural advisory services, replant under conditions adapted to requirements imposed by the soil. After the third dekad of July, crop failure and failure to plant should be monitored closely because they could potentially lead to poor agricultural production.

4. Plant Health

Plant health conditions are stable throughout the country. However, limited hatching of grasshopper larvae, localized infestations of whiteflies and the appearance of grain-eating birds in roosting areas have been reported in the towns of Tahoua. These localized situations call for mobilization of the existing survey and monitoring system in order to prevent pest populations from increasing. The Crop Protection Service, which is well aware that during the 2001-2 season the stalk borer caused major crop damage in September and forced a revision of the estimates for some regions, is making efforts to rationally use its limited means to provide better monitoring in the relevant areas and so reduce the impact of infestations on production.

5. Livestock Conditions

Livestock is eating mainly feed from the 2001 season, thanks to extra supplies in most of the country’s farming areas. For the moment, the early developmental stage of plants at this point in the year has prevented any pastures from being established. The small amount of rain that has fallen since the beginning of the season has been insufficient to create any ponds adequate for watering stock, except in some towns where rainfall was heavier (Tillabery, Maradi, Niamey). Permanent watering holes (e.g., the Niger River and Lake Chad), wells and bore holes continue to be the main sources of water for livestock. This explains why stock is currently concentrated around these watering holes. As yet, very few animals have begun the traditional migration to the north.

6. Markets

After a period during recent months when the price of millet rose moderately, all of the cereal markets posted higher prices. In Zinder, the increase was 42%, 121%, 65% and 12% over the years 1997, 1999, 2000 and 2001, respectively. Compared to the same period in 1999 and 2000, prices in Niamey and Tahoua rose by 79% and 66%, respectively (Figure 2). The June increase was greater than in previous years because the rise in price on cereal markets reacting to the season’s slow start during the first dekad of June was in addition to an upward trend that has persisted since January 2002. The high prices lasting from January to June were caused by, among other factors, two phenomena whose dynamics have not yet been completely mastered by parties working to increase food security in Niger: - a new tendency on the part of persons outside the cereals industry (e.g., laborers and civil servants) who are experiencing economic difficulties to stockpile cereals in order to re-sell them at a profit at this time of year.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR

4

- a particularly strong demand for cereals this year by Nigerian merchants, particularly between January and April 2002

Producers and merchants typically react by stockpiling their reserves each time the agricultural season gets off to a slow start. This tendency has contributed to the additional price increase. This year, their skepticism concerning the results of this season is fed by the lack of rain and the reduced number of villages that planted during the first dekad of June. At the same time, family reserves are dwindling, having practically all been eaten by this time of year.

All these conditions together tend to significantly increase the amount of commercial and family reserves that are stockpiled, to reduce the available supply, and to cause price increases.

Figure 2: Interannual Comparison Of Millet Prices On Selected Nigerian Markets (June 1997- 2002)

250

200 150 100 FCFA/Kg 50

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 AVERAGE 150 197 100 113 174 190

MARADI 135 192 84 110 167 178

149 200 101 115 167 185 TAHOUA ZINDER 148 200 95 127 187 210 TILLABERI 170 185 117 102 170 187

Source: SIMC/FEWS NET

Most rural households are experiencing moderate food insecurity. Most poor urban neighborhoods (e.g., Harobanda in Niamey) in both larger and smaller towns located in areas that ended the 2001-2 season with a food shortage (namely the towns of Say, Loga, , Mayayi and Aguié) are experiencing high food insecurity. Households tend to partially and temporarily substitute less expensive cereals, legumes, and fruits for millet while they wait for the price drop that likely will occur in coming weeks.

The increasing pace of planting during the second dekad of June and normal crop development should reassure the markets and cause prices to decrease significantly.

7. Monitoring Areas Of High Food Insecurity

After those involved with food security had identified Say, Loga, Tchintabaraden, Mayayi and Aguié as areas of high food insecurity, the Cellule Crise Alimentaire (CCA) [Food Crisis Unit] and the Early Warning System (EWS) undertook a joint mission in the field that was intended to evaluate the condition of households in these localities. Households in the areas visited are affected predominantly by family migration, a reduction in the number of meals and the adoption of local

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR

5 survival strategies. The mission recommended implementation of long-term actions such as soil improvement, control of desertification, treatment of the valleys, and use of firebreaks, with public involvement through strategies such as “food for work” and “money for work” (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Location Of Areas Of High Food Insecurity

Source: Information: CCA, Map: FEWS NET NIGER

8. Program Planning And Interventions

At the meeting held in N iamey on June 6, 2002, the technical departments of the Weather and Water Bureaus of West African Economic Community countries, with support from international partners (e.g., MétéoFrance, NOAA, IRI/USA, Agrhymet, Hydro Niger, USAID and the University of Oklahoma), have forecast rain conditions for the period from July to September.

Experts looked at the effects of ocean surface temperatures on precipitation to provide the following forecasts for Niger: - In all areas: precipitation normal with respect to the reference years (1961-1990), with disparities among different areas. - In the western part of the country: precipitation normal to above normal. - In the eastern part of the country: precipitation slightly below normal to normal. - In the southern part of the country: precipitation below normal to normal.

These forecasts, which are to be reviewed in July, predict only the amount of rain. They do not specify the spatial distribution or timing of the rain, which, however, are determining factors in the onset of droughts and predator attacks, and therefore significant factors in reducing the quantity and quality of crops.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR

6

Representatives of the central and regional advisory services and Ministry of Agriculture projects met June 6 through 9 in Tahoua to discuss the results of last year’s season, program planning for the 2002-3 season, and a credit system for women growers. The advisory services went ahead with traditional program planning for their 2002-3 season activities, which focus on training needs, implementation of technical activities and provision of inputs to the producers (Table 2).

Table 2: Program Planning For Agricultural Advisory Services Activities For the 2002-3 Rainy Season Category Contents

1. Training Training in extension activities: mineral and organic fertilization, selection and preservation of seed, growing fruit trees, vegetable- growing techniques Training in crop protection: integrated pest control for acrididae, surveying and reporting, food preservation Training in agricultural statistics: filling out survey forms, measuring survey plots, placement of yield plots, estimating yields from the plots 2. Technical Activities a. Crop protection Site surveys, reporting and taking action against predators on 500,000 ha b. Extension Supervision and evaluation assignments, followup on project execution, evaluation of training needs, awareness campaigns through the media, support for the tiger nut industry c. Collection of statistical Harvest forecast and estimate surveys, monitoring of markets and data agricultural and weather conditions, monitoring/followup for the season and followup on vulnerable areas d. Promotion of Dissemination of laws concerning the cooperative system and cooperatives legalization of cooperative groups 3. Supplies a. Fertilizers Supply producers with 10,374 MT of urea, PN, NPK b. Plant-health products Needs include 259,872 liters of liquid products, 101,194 kg of solid products and 129,900 bags of fungicides c. Seed National needs estimated at 1238 MT of millet, 317 MT of sorghum, 73 MT of maize, 675 MT of cowpeas, and 757 MT of groundnuts, for a total of 3062 MT of seed d. Agricultural equipment 829 pieces of motorized equipment, hoes, plows, carts and tractors 4. Dept. of Agriculture Strengthening of farmers’ organizations, controlling the water situation, Projects more intensive farming, growing fruit trees

Source: Department of Agriculture

The government has decided to provide credit totaling one billion CFA francs to women growers through a program for promoting women’s agricultural endeavors. The goal is to support the women and to encourage them to become actively involved in the process of ensuring household food security. The meeting of agricultural managers analyzed ways and means for implementing such an initiative in an environment characterized by the weakening of decentralized credit institutions.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Immeuble EL USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 NASR