The Dragon and the Elephant T H E G L O B A L Bodies in the Mediterranean I N T E L L I G E N C E ISIS spreads to Asia ANALYZING THE WORLD OF AFFAIRS Travel like the CIA SPRING 2015 THEGLOBALINTELLIGENCE.COM Children at work JapanLook Sharpens East its Swords India-America the STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP of the 21st Century W W W . T H E G L O B A L I N T E L L I G E N C E . C O M ANALYZING THE WORLD OF AFFAIRS • Articles Online • Advertising Rates • Live Content • Contributor Information • Subscriber Services • And More T H E G L O B A L C O N T E N T S I N T E L L I G E N C E SPRING 2015 — VOLUME IV, NUMBER 2 ANALYZING THE WORLD OF AFFAIRS Editor’s Comment 4 THE INTELLIGENCE Burma Struggles to Stay Afloat All Work and No Play Op-Ed: The Right to Spy 18 25 years after the U.N. Convention on the 5 Japan claims it is recasting its Rights of the Child, child labor continues to intelligence apparatus to match its plague the world current needs Report on Libya: 8 The Globe in Brief The Clash for Oil 30 The nation holding the world’s 9th largest How to Travel like a Secret Agent oil reserves has been sliced open by rival 10 A new WikiLeaks document reveals factions seeking political control and export that the CIA has all the tips for revenue avoiding complications at the border Death on Europe’s Doorstep 42 The migrant body count on the Mediterranean far surpasses the toll of LOOK EAST terrorism, but the E.U. has abdicated its humanitarian responsibility The U.S. and India: Limbo Hand in Hand 45 Migrants seeking to enter the U.K. wait in 13 Obama and Modi have a lot of promises to derelict camps in the French port town of keep after their meeting on India’s Republic Calais (Photojournalism) Day Remembering the Life Will the Rivals Dance? that Changed the Future 25 Even as China and India maneuver for naval supremacy, trade can bring them 54 Sixty years after his death, Alan Turing’s together innovations—and the controversy surrounding him—remain relevant South Asia’s Islamic State 38 ISIS recruitment campaigns seek allegiances in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and even India COVER Hiding a Crisis A Standard Missile-3 is 48 launched from the Japanese India cannot overturn the rapist mentality Aegis Destroyer JS Kongo by curtailing free expression en route to intercept a target missile launched from the Seizing Aeronautic Independence U.S. Pacific Missile Range 52 Facility. (Credit: U.S. Navy) India’s first indigenous fighter plane is ready to take to the skies AUTUMN 2014 — THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE 3 T H E G L O B A L E D I T O R ’ S C O M M E N T I N T E L L I G E N C E ANALYZING THE WORLD OF AFFAIRS Burma Struggles to Stay Afloat EXECUTIVE EDITOR Probir Kumar Sarkar ASSISTANT EDITOR Benjamin Hayward Look east, where warmongering clouds are gathering on the horizon, and ADVISOR Yatindra Bhatnagar both opportunity and strife arise. In this issue, we focus our analysis on the geo- COPY EDITING Jonathon Macfarlane political currents in Asia. RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS Alexander H. India and Japan have both responded to China’s maritime challenge. New Maurice, Benjamin Hayward, Dinesh Delhi is increasing its clout in the Indian Ocean, and Tokyo is rebuilding its once- Sharma, Julienne Vipond, Mahendra Ved, Peter Bjel, Ola Wam, Probir K. fearsome intelligence services. But coupled with the newly-built Washington-New Sarkar, Rajendra Prabhu, S. Saheb. Delhi strategic partnership, this could instigate a broader arms race with China in The Global Intelligence is published in an already tense situation. Meanwhile just across India’s borders, ISIS has cast the January (Winter), April (Spring), July (Sum- mer), and October (Autumn) by The Global shadow of its black flag over the troubled regions of South Asia. Intelligence Publications Inc. at 835 Riverside Drive, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, Further inland, Burma/Myanmar’s fledgling democracy is at risk of drown- E3A 8R1. Visit us online at www.theglobalintel- ing. Burma will go to the polls in November this year to elect its replacement ligence.com. for the 69-year-old junta leader Thein Sein, who has held the office of president SUBSCRIBERS: Send changes of address and all subscriptions correspondence with The for almost five years. 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A non-binding referendum will take place this U.S. CIRCULATION OFFICE: 1503 N. Normandie Ave #6 spring to poll voters regarding possible changes to the constitution. Los Angles, CA, 90027, U.S.A. Of the two political contenders for presidential office, military-backed NEW DELHI OFFICE: 104 Savarkar Apt. House of Representatives speaker Shwe Mann made a point of reminding the 39 IP Extension country, however, that any changes to the constitution would not be implement- New Delhi, 110092, India CUSTOMER SERVICE: ed until after the new President assumes office. That effectively disqualifies his [email protected] more-popular rival, Aung San Suu Ki of the National League for Democracy, ADVERTISING: from running, due to her status as a widow and mother of British nationals. The [email protected] or call +1.506.800.9931 spring referendum may only serve to taunt those voters who want to see the Volume IV, Number 2 Copyright © 2015 constitution changed in time for her to run in the elections. by The Global Intelligence Publications Inc. Reproduction in any manner in whole or in Thus either democratic turmoil or further junta influence lies in store for part in English or other languages is prohibited. the more than 58 million newly democratic citizens of Myanmar. All rights reserved throughout the world. Protection secured under International and A map of geopolitical forces would depict not mountain ranges but currents Pan-American copyright conventions. of tension in an ever-changing ocean—their tides shifting almost every decade. 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ISSN 1929-1981 (Print) google.com/+theglobalintelligencemagazine ISSN 1929-199X (Online) 4 THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE — SPRING 2015 O P - E D The Right to Spy Japan claims it is recasting its intelligence apparatus to match its current needs by Probir Kumar Sarkar hroughout the into five organizations, each with its own intelligence Cold War, Tokyo responsibility: research, diplomacy, counterterrorism, was forced to out- defense, and policing. What is lacking is an institu- sourceT its overseas spying. tion that can pool intelligence gathering from all these Japan’s external security branches and provide analysis to the country’s top pol- was upheld by the United icy makers. As it is, all these agencies report directly to States, and the two nations the Prime Minister’s office. As a result Japanese policy- banded together to keep the Soviet bloc at bay. This makers suffer huge gaps of important intelligence and arrangement proved fruitful for both parties, as Japan mostly react to crises rather than preempt them. became an important eastern ally of the United States. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has already formed But the equation of international powers has shifted the National Security Council, similar to that of the and Washington’s involvement in Japan’s defense affairs has diminished over time. Japan is now a major soft power and one of the world’s most successful democracies. Japan suffers huge gaps of important Recent problems, including the killing of intelligence and mostly reacts to two Japanese citizens at the hand of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), have increased the crises rather than preempting them. demand for Japan to develop its own intelligence service. The beheading of two Japanese nationals in January of this year prompted a public outcry.