Volkswagen Group China at a Glance
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Carsten Isensee Executive Vice President Finance, Volkswagen Group China Morgan Stanley 3rd Annual China Summit, Beijing, 31 May 2017 1 Volkswagen Group China at a glance 2 Review 2016 and Q1 2017 3 Future development 2 Volkswagen Group in China More than 12 fascinating 1984: first Joint 1990: FAW-VW was Around 95,000 ~330,000 employees 150 models brands Venture Shanghai founded in employees end of within dealer network VW was founded Changchun 2016 in 2016 30 production Around €4 billion More than 17% Over 30 million 3.98 million Around €5 billion plants end of 2016 investments market share in cars delivered deliveries in 2016 proportionate planned for 2017 China’s passenger since market entry operating profit car market in 2016 in 2016 3 Volkswagen’s second home market in comparison Size of the countries Population CHINA GERMANY CHINA: 9,596,960 km2 INHABITANTS 1,382 million 83 million DENSITY (People per km2) 144.0 231.6 GERMANY: 357,021km2 AVERAGE AGE 37 years 47 years UNEMPLOYMENT 4.1 % 6.1 % Economy Car industry CHINA GERMANY CHINA GERMANY GDP $ 9,485 billion $ 3,763 billion TOTAL CAR PARK 95 million 45 million GDP PER CAPITA $ 6,862 $ 45,498 TOTAL MARKET 22.8 million 3.4 million GDP GROWTH RATE 6.7 % 1.8 % PRODUCTION SITES 163 25 INFLATION 2.0 % 0.5 % DENSITY (Cars per 1,000 Inh.) 69.2 549 TRADE BALANCE $ 530.6 billion $ 316.8 billion AVERAGE CAR AGE 3.3 9.2 Sources: Data for FY 2016, CIA World Factbook, IHS Markit, VDA, KBA, PwC 4 Volkswagen Group in China – A long-term success story Volkswagen Group development of deliveries to customers (in ‘000 units) 3,982 4,000 3,675 3,549 3,500 3,271 3,000 2,813 2,500 2,259 1,923 2,000 1,500 1,400 1,024 910 1,000 698 649 711 514 572 500 303 316 337 360 221 240 280 140 149 11 16 20 23 41 90 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 5 Volkswagen Group production sites all over China Volkswagen Group production facilities Facts 2016 30 production plants in China • 4 FAW-Volkswagen vehicle plants Urumqi Changchun Changchun (2 plants) Dalian Chengdu Beijing Foshan Tianjin • 8 SAIC VOLKSWAGEN vehicle plants Shanghai (3 plants) Chengdu Nanjing Nanjing Yizheng Shanghai Changzhou Yizheng Changsha Ningbo Ningbo Urumqi Foshan Changsha • 18 Component plants FAW-Volkswagen vehicle plants SAIC VOLKSWAGEN vehicle plants 3,897 thousand produced cars Component plants 3,784 thousand produced engines MAN Diesel & Turbo 2,196 thousand produced transmissions Headquarters Volkswagen Group China 1,919 thousand produced axle systems 6 Joint Venture structure of Volkswagen Group in China Start of production 1983 (Santana B2) 1991 (Jetta) 1st JV contract signed 1984 1990 JV contract runs until 2035 2041 Volkswagen 1,652 Volkswagen 1,361 Production in 2016 ŠKODA 328 Audi 556 (in ‘000 vehicles) Total 1,980 Total 1,917 10% FAW SAIC 40% 1) 20% VCIC Ownership structure 50% VCIC1) 60% 2) VW AG VW AG 10% 10% Audi AG 1) Volkswagen (China) Investment Co., Ltd. 100% owned by Volkswagen AG. 2) Including a stake hold by ŠKODA AUTO a.s. 7 1) Further entities in China 100% owned by Volkswagen AG2) Joint Venture Companies FAW-Volkswagen Sales Co. Volkswagen FAW Engine Changchun Volkswagen Automatic Transmission (Dalian) Beijing Dalian Volkswagen Automatic Transmission (Tianjin) Tianjin Audi China Volkswagen (China) Investment Company Shanghai Volkswagen Powertrain Shanghai Volkswagen Group Import Yizheng Volkswagen FAW Platform Chengdu Volkswagen Finance (China) Foshan SAIC VOLKSWAGEN Sales Co. Volkswagen Group Hong Kong Volkswagen Transmission Volkswagen Hong Kong Hong Kong Sitech Dongchang Automotive Seating 1) Selection of major companies in the region China. 2) Direct and indirect holdings. 8 1 Volkswagen Group China at a glance 2 Review 2016 and Q1 2017 3 Future development 9 Strong operating result for the Volkswagen Group in China 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Deliveries to customers 2,815 3,271 3,675 3,549 3,982 (in ‘000 units) Production 2,643 3,135 3,528 3,420 3,897 (in ‘000 units) Operating profit 8,424 9,569 12,077 11,937 11,094 (100% level; in € million) Prop. Operating profit 3,678 4,296 5,182 5,214 4,956 (in € million) 10 Financials 2016 by car manufacturing JV – on 100% level Deliveries to customers 1,854 (+13.5%) 1,949 (+12.3%) (in ‘000 units) of which 1,315 Volkswagen and 539 Audi of which 1,632 Volkswagen and 317 ŠKODA Sales revenue 40,875 (+1.0%) 26,064 (+0.2%) (in € million) Pre-tax profit 5,546 (-10.1%) 4,589 (+4.1%) (in € million) Margin 13.6% 17.6% 11 Chinese Joint Ventures generate substantial, self-funded growth and at the same time sustainably rising dividends Total amount of dividends paid out to Joint Venture partners and Volkswagen Group (in € billion) Total amount of dividend Chinese Joint Ventures thereof paid to Volkswagen Group 10 8.1 6.5 6.7 4.6 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.0 1.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 12 Strong market growth and pre-buy effect end of 2016 lead to slower start in 2017 Total market development (in ‘000 units) 2016 vs. 2015 Q1: +8.8% Q2: +12.0% Q3: +27.8% Q4: +23.1% 2017 vs. 2016 Q1: +1.3% 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2016 500 2015 2017 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CPCA, Insurance data 13 Volkswagen Group China deliveries to customers until April 2017 ‘000 units Jan.- Apr. 2016 -4.8% 1,400 Jan.- Apr. 2017 1,251 1,191 1,200 +50.2% units -1.9% 1,600 1,448 1,000 939 922 1,400 1,200 800 964 1,000 600 +91.4% 800 -18.1% 600 400 469 -11.6% -7.5% 400 189 +13.2% 245 200 155 99 88 93 86 200 21 24 0 0 1) 1) incl. Hong Kong, excl. Ducati. Group numbers incl. MAN and Scania 14 Split between locally produced and imported vehicles until April 20171) Deliveries to customers (in ‘000 vehicles) Import business 2017 (deliveries in ‘000 vehicles) Others 3 581 16 56 Imported < 5% 24 13 555 Total deliveries in the region China amounted to 1,191 thousand until April in 2017 1)» incl. Hong Kong, excl. Ducati. Group numbers incl. MAN and Scania 15 Positive effect through better mix and material cost improvements did not offset the negative effects in Q1 2017 Proportionate operating profit (in € million) - 62 1,174 1,112 + – + Mix effect (e.g. introduction - Audi dealer situation of Tiguan L) - Volume decline + Material cost - Currency effect improvements Q1 2016 Q1 2017 16 1 Volkswagen Group China at a glance 2 Review 2016 and Q1 2017 3 Future development 17 The continued rapid growth phase of China’s market is over, looking into the future we expect normalized growth Rapid Growth Continued Growth New Normal 30,000 CAGR: +28% CAGR: +12% CAGR: +3% 25,413 24,445 25,000 22,874 23,530 23,255 Passenger vehicle market (in ’000 units) 19,352 20,000 17,829 15,903 15,000 13,503 12,354 11,428 10,000 8,460 5,077 5,475 4,155 5,000 3,294 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e Source: Forecast by IHS (as of Jan. 2017) 18 New product offering with an expanded SUV offering 1) Body style trends until 20201) New vehicle launches 2017 and to follow2) SUV Rest 46% Teramont Q5 KODIAQ 40% SUV Tiguan LWB … MPV YETI Others Notchback & imported locally produced Hatchback 53% 47% Panamera A5 Coupé TT Phideon PHEV Lavida Turbo 2016 2020e Q7 e-tron R8 Spyder Panamera Variant GTE Bora LWB 1) Source: IHS 2) Schematic overview – does not show all models 19 Audi paves the way for the new two-partner strategy in China Audi on the road to 2025 Further localization with focus on electrified cars with FAW-Volkswagen › Strengthen development competencies in the area of electric mobility › 5 new localized e-tron models within the next 5 years › To advance localization, the collaboration in the field of tool making will be enhanced › Establish new joint company with FAW-Volkswagen focusing on mobility and digital services New business potential through planned collaboration with SAIC Motor › Evaluating long-term collaboration for the production and distribution of Audi models and establishing data and mobility services › Audi models from planned SAIC Audi collaboration to be distributed through existing dealer network › New sales steering structure planned for unified distribution of Audi products 20 Legal requirements of average fuel consumption targets for fleets in China l/100 km Challenges 8 Requirement 2016: • Almost no diesel 6.7l ≙ 157g CO /km 7 2 passenger cars in China Legal requirement • Preference for large 6 cars in the market Requirement 2020: 5.0l ≙ ~120g CO2/km • Test standards result 5 in higher consumption 4.0l figures 4 • Specifications based on “separate fleets” 3 (locally produced & import) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 … 2025e 21 China 6 regulation – Worldwide toughest emission legislation Development gasoline NOx limits in different markets 1) Highlights mg/km • Implementation in China in two steps: . C6a from July 2020 80 C6b early implementation Bench test Bench test in BJ, SH & other key regions possible .