THE AUTHORITY ON THE FUTURE OF November/December 2007 Founder www.technologyreview.com Evan Williams p44 Measuring the Polar Meltdown p54 MIT NEWS Outsmarting the Flu pM12

The Blow-Up By Bryant Urstadt Page 36 The world is growing by more than 70 million people a year.

So is that a problem, or a solution?

CHEVRON is a registered trademark of Chevron Corporation. The CHEVRON HALLMARK and HUMAN ENERGY are trademarks of Chevron Corporation. 2007 Chevron Corporation. All rights reserved. , inuing to increase n cont veloping ’s populatio in the de h our planet llions gy is also Wit y of life for mi or ener and the qualit y, our demand f 5 years from oving dail e’s needs 2 . world impr et everyon And to me gy than we use today growing. e ener may take 50% mor we now and power the fuel s, veloping all ng and de inesses and vehicle e Findi s, bus , could be on or our home need f the environment on will face. protecting s our generati while est challenge e of the great same plac in the ique success is found n the un ing y itself. Whe s The key to ensur mankind ha d this need: humanitto flourish, that create is allowed e, any issue. e all possess vercom and spirit w to take on, and o rive, courage its ability ty, d proven rd work, ingenui ss, to each f ha itment. To succe It’s a spirit oasure of comm no small me t. other, to the plane the solution. …becomes The problem ceed has been es us to suc energy that driv And it will be with This human e the beginning. very day sinc to come. there e y tomorrows us to shape man ful source of most power apping the join us in t elves. So e world. Ours energy in th . ace can do And watch what the human r Contents Volume 110, Number 6

Features 36 The Blow-Up This summer, as a meltdown in the subprime credit market spilled over into other markets, all eyes were on the mathematically trained fi nancial engineers known as “quants.” Who are these guys? By Bryant Urstadt 44 What Is He Doing? Twitter is at the heart of the phenomenon called microblogging. Meet its founder, Evan Williams. By Kate Greene 54 Measuring the Polar Meltdown At a remote outpost in northern Greenland, scientists are attempting to resolve the central mystery of global warming. By David Talbot 60 Two Short Stories “Steve Fever,” by Greg Egan; “The Interoperation,” by Bruce Sterling

6 Contributors Hack Reviews 8 Letters 20 Earth 80 Trivial Pursuits 10 From the Editor How Google maps the world With microblogging services, the By Simson Garfi nkel mundane is the message. Forward By Jason Pontin 13 Financial Woes in Second Life Q&A 82 A Genetic Test for Diabetes Risk Fiscal crisis raises questions about 22 William Hurlbut Will it help make people healthier? how the game handles real money How to make embryonic By Emily Singer 14 Hidden Hearing Aid stem cells without embryos 84 The Talk of the Town: You Implant is convenient but doesnt By Michael Fitzgerald A new book helps us rethink privacy work as well as external hearing aids in an immodest age. 14 Seals as Sensors Notebooks By Mark Williams Elephant seals gather climate data 24 On Quants Demo 15 Networking the Hudson Financial engineers merely keep the Data from the river will create a markets running. 86 Virus-Built Electronics model for environmental monitoring By Daniel W. Stroock A new way to fabricate nanomaterials could mean batteries and solar cells 15 A Better Touch Screen 24 Friend Spam woven into clothing. In a prototype, your fi ngers The founder of Friendster looks at By Kevin Bullis dont cover up what youre looking at the revolution he started. 16 3-D View of the Brain By Jonathan Abrams From the Labs New software for the operating room 25 Sea-Level Riddle 16 Battery Booster Determining how fast ice sheets 90 Nanotechnology Saving power in mobile devices are melting is critical to future policy 91 Information Technology 92 Biotechnology 17 Postglacial Rebound decisions.

Better measurements of ice loss By Richard Alley 17 Better than High-Def 19 Years Ago in TR Graphic Story Get ready for high-contrast displays 96 The Bonfi re of the Automated 18 Featured Startup: EveryScape 26 Mission to Mars: A True Story Trading Strategies Company makes high-resolution From Mars Observer to Phoenix Computers effects on markets virtual streetscapes Story by Erica Naone remain controversial. And more ... Art by Tomer and By Michael Patrick Gibson

2 CONTENTS TECHNOLOGY REVIEW november/december 2007 TechnologyReview.com Whats New on Our Website

commentary on the latest research. breakout sessions online. Even if you Ed Boyden, an assistant professor did attend EmTech 2007, you might in the MIT Media Lab and MIT want to catch up on what you missed. Department of Biological Engineer- Its all here. ing, blogs about the rapidly devel- oping i eld of brain engineering. Boyden, a leading innovator in the i eld, develops and deploys novel tools that analyze and modify brain circuits to help correct aberrant activity. John technologyreview.com/ Maeda, a graphic designer, visual art- googleearth ist, and computer scientist at the MIT In this months Hack, we dissect the Media Lab, of ers insight on a unique popular online tool Google Earth and eclectic collection of design oddi- (p. 20). Experience a l y-through ties in his blog, Technohumanism. technologyreview.com/mars tour for yourself by visiting - Technology Reviews i rst graphic nology Review website. Videos show technologyreview.com/ story (“Mission to Mars,” p. 26) also how Google attempts to portray the emtech/videos/ gets special treatment online. Watch real world in three dimensions. Those who couldnt make it to this the story of the Mars Observer unfold years EmTech, Technology Review, by scrolling from frame to frame in technologyreview.com/blog Inc.s annual conference on emerging a Flash application. Got crayons? Technology Review has enlisted new , can watch videos of all Download a black-and-white version expert bloggers to provide thoughtful its workshops, keynote speeches, and for your children to color.

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TECHNOLOGYwww.thinkfi REVIEW september re.com/october 2007 For more information contact csommers@thinkfiTECHNOLOGYREVIEW re.com. .COM 3 Editor in Chief and Publisher Corporate Advertising Sales China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Jason Pontin Chief Financial Offi cer Senior Vice President and and Thailand Rick Crowley Director of Advertising Sales Herb Moskowitz Editorial Maureen Elmaleh [email protected] Chief Operating Offi cer 852-28-38-87-02 Editor [email protected] James Coyle David Rotman 303-975-6381 Japan Executive Assistant Deputy Editor Shigeru Kobayashi Leila Snyder Nate Nickerson New York and Northeast [email protected] Johanna Zottarelli-Duffe 813-3261-4591 Art Director Manager of Information Technology Colby Wheeler [email protected] Lee Caulfi eld 212-419-2824 South Korea Chief Correspondent Marketing S. Y. Jo New England and Midwest [email protected] David Talbot Senior Vice President, Business 82-27-39-78-40 Senior Editors Development and Marketing Barry Echavarria Larry Hardesty, Erika Jonietz [email protected] Kathleen Kennedy 603-924-7586 Taiwan Senior Editor, MIT News Marketing Communications Manager Keith Lee Alice Dragoon Stephanie Corner Mid-Atlantic and Southeast [email protected] 886-2-25-23-82-68 Biotechnology and Clive Bullard Sales and Marketing Coördinator [email protected] Life Editor Amy Lammers Emily Singer 845-231-0846 Advertising Services Advertising Services Coördinator Information Technology and [email protected] David A. Schmidt Northwest and Southwest 617-475-8004 Computer Editor Patrick Viera Kate Greene [email protected] Media Kit Consumer Marketing Nanotechnology and 415-659-2982 www.technologyreview.com/media Materials Science Editor Circulation Director Kevin Bullis Heather Holmes Northwest Steve Thompson Associate Editor Fulfi llment Manager Technology Review [email protected] One Main Street, 7th Floor Katherine Bourzac Tina Bellomy 415-435-4678 Cambridge MA 02142 Customer Service Coördinator Copy Chief Tel: 617-475-8000 Linda Lowenthal Karen Stallone France Philippe Marquezy Fax: 617-475-8043 Research Editor [email protected] Jessica B. Baker Finance 33-1-4270-0008 Assistant Editor Accountants Erica Naone Letitia Trecartin, Maureen Momoh Germany Michael Hanke Editorial Assistant Board of Directors [email protected] Michael P. Gibson 49-511-5352-167 Reid Ashe, Jerome I. Friedman, Assistant Designer Elizabeth A. Garvin, Robert M. Angela Tieri Europe Metcalfe, Theresa M. Stone, Anthony Fitzgerald Production Consultant Sheila E. Widnall, Ann J. Wolpert mail@afi tzgerald.co.uk James LaBelle 44-1488-680623 Contributing Editors Relaunch Fund Simson Garfi nkel, Mark Williams Millennial Patron Robert M. Metcalfe TechnologyReview.com Centennial Patrons Vice President, Online Steve Kirsch, DuWayne David Foucher J. Peterson Jr. Managing Editor Rachel Ross Customer service and subscription inquiries Graphic Designer Conrad Warre National: 800-877-5230 International: 386-447-6352 Technology Review, Inc., the authority on the future of Web Producer www.technologyreview.com/ technology, identifi es emerging technologies and analyzes their impact Brittany Sauser customerservice Web Copy Editor Permissions: 978-750-8400 for technology leaders. Technology Review publishes Technology Review Nell Beram Reprints: 717-399-1900 x118 magazine (the oldest technology magazine in the world, founded in Web Developers MIT Records: 617-253-8270 1899) and the daily website TechnologyReview.com; it also produces Shaun Calhoun, Michael Callahan, (alums only) Sarah Redman live events such as the Emerging Technologies Conference. Technology Review is an independent media company owned by the Institute of Technology. The views expressed in our various publications De Technologia non multum scimus. Scimus autem, quid nobis placeat. and at our events are often not shared by MIT.

4 TECHNOLOGY REVIEW november/december 2007 It’s how Logitech reinvented the remote control.

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Bryant Urstadt wrote this issues comics,” says Asaf. “Its very hot in Statement required by 39 U.S.C. 3685 showing the ownership, management, and circulation of Technology cover story, on Wall Street “quants”— that part of the world, and everything Review, published bimonthly (6 issues), for September 1, 2007. Publication No. 535-940. Annual subscription mathematically trained i nancial engi- is constantly bathed in yellow. We price $34.00. neers and managers—and the role took four-color trips to Gotham City

1. Location of known offi ce of publication: their work played in this summers and at some point never came back.” MIT, One Main Street, Cambridge, Middlesex, MA 02142 upheaval in 2. Location of headquarters or general business offi ce the i nancial Bruce Sterling is an American of the publisher: MIT, One Main Street, Cambridge, Middlesex, MA 02142 markets (“The novelist and journalist. A leader

3. The names and addresses of the publisher, editor, Blow-Up,” p. of the “cyberpunk” literary move- and managing editor: 36). “This ment, he now writes and speaks Publisher: Jason Pontin, MIT, One Main Street, Cambridge, Middlesex, MA 02142 was one of the on a wide range of subjects. In the Editor: David Rotman, MIT, One Main Street, Cambridge, most intimidat- story that appears in this issue (“The Middlesex, MA 02142 Managing Editor: Nate Nickerson, MIT, One Main Street, ing pieces I have ever been involved Interoperation,” p. 69), an archi- Cambridge, Middlesex, MA 02142 in,” says Urstadt. “But as my report- tect i ghts the creative limitations 4. The owner is ing developed, I noticed that I wasnt imposed by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139. alone in my confusion, in that a lot computer 5. Known bondholders, mortgages and other security of people were slightly unsure about automation. “I holders owning or holding one percent or more of total amount of bonds, mortgages, or other securities: what was going on in their own love to hang None domain. It wasnt like people were out with indus- 6. Extent and nature of circulation: panicking—it was just that there was trial designers, Average number Number of a general sense that things were a engineers, and of copies of copies of single each issue issue published bit mysterious. One thing was clear, architects—people whose business is during preceding nearest to 12 months fi ling date though: these were some of the creating the physical world,” Sterling smartest people Ive ever talked to.” says. “Word processing transformed A. Total number of copies: 226,143 223,310 Urstadt is a freelance writer whose my line of work 30 years ago, but work regularly appears in New York, every year, design software eats up B. Paid and/or requested circulation: Outside, and ESPN. more of these guys time-honored 1. Paid/requested outside-county enterprises. I had to ask that clas- mail subscriptions: 183,082 180,562 Asaf and Tomer Hanuka illustrated sic science i ction question: what 2. Sales through dealers “Mission to Mars,” a graphic story happens if this goes on?” Sterling and carriers, street vendors, counter sales, written by Erica Naone, which chron- is moving to Turin, Italy, which the and other non-USPS icles NASAs various attempts to International Council of Societies paid distribution: 11,876 12,498 explore that of Industrial Design has designated C. Total paid and/or requested planet (p. World Design Capital for 2008. circulation: 194,958 193,060 26). “There

D. Free distribution is a sense of Greg Egan is an Australian science by mail: 2,238 2,240 the fantastic i ction writer and computer pro- E. Free distribution struggling to grammer; his new short story “Steve outside the mail: 6,522 6,916 coexist with Fever” appears in this issue (p. 60). F. Total free the real, which we found very appeal- “People often lament the way some distribution: 8,760 9,156 ing,” says Tomer. “When we thought politicians and celebrities end up G. Total distribution: 203,718 202,216 about the people involved, we imag- believing their own public relations,”

H. Copies not ined geeky kids reading sci-i novels: says Egan. “I thought it would be distributed: 22,424 21,094 now theyre all grown up and redei n- interesting to imagine what might I. Total: 226,143 223,310 ing the future.” Tomer and Asaf, who happen if we developed technology

J. Percent paid are identical twins, are the creators that was capable of believing its own and/or of Bipolar, an award-winning comic- hype.” Egan recently completed his requested circulation: 95.7% 95.5% book series. Work they did separately seventh novel, Incandescence, which has appeared in , he says “concerns an alien society 7. I certify that all information furnished on this form is true and complete: Spin, Rolling Stone, Time, and Forbes. with very simple technology strug- (Signed) Heather Holmes, Director of Circulation “We grew up in and spent the gling to understand general relativity, majority of our childhood reading as a matter of life and death.”

6 CONTRIBUTORS TECHNOLOGY REVIEW november/december 2007

Letters

Who Wants to Live Forever? by-product of medical progress is that Patent Law In “The Enthusiast” (September/ one day, someone may wake up for his I was very pleased to see the magazine October 2007), David Ewing Duncan 1,000th birthday. If on that day pain publish an accurate patent law article discusses the scientific controversy lashes him and the world goes gray, he written by a patent attorney (“Patent surrounding Harvard biologist David will cry out, “Please! Of course I do not Law Gets Saner,” September/October Sinclairs longevity research but fails want to live to be 2,000. Who would? 2007). Scott Feldmann provided an to mention a more sinister contro- But I do not want to die today!” excellent lay summary of the impact, versy, one that exists outside the sci- William Bains especially on patent “trolls,” of three entii c community. As a bioethicist, I Royston, Hertfordshire, England very important (and notably concur- am unhappily aware that many of my rent) United States Supreme Court fellow bioethicists oppose in principle On Chess patent cases: eBay, MedImmune, and any attempt to extend the human life Philosopher Daniel C. Dennett reaches KSR, which many patent attorneys span. They think people should accept the verdict that computers are the equal (me among them) had been avidly the “natural” limits on longevity, of humans in chess (“Higher Games,” following. The soundness of these although they do not oppose electric September/October 2007). To the con- decisions may be due in part to the power on the grounds that we should trary, computers cannot play chess at unusually large number of amicus accept the “natural” limits on indoor all. Chess is a game; games are for hav- briefs that were i led by organizations light and warmth. As a future old per- ing fun; computers cannot have fun. and academics. son, I hope that scientists will continue Daniel Pratt Paul F. Morgan to ignore such small-mindedness and Laurel, MD Rochester, NY that someday your magazines fea- ture on outstanding innovators in the Bright Lights in Stockholm Artifi cial Intelligence early stages of their careers will feature I loved the 1962 photo that accompa- I enjoyed the thought-provoking essay innovators under 150 rather than just nied James Watsons essay recounting by Yale computer scientist David those under 35. his part in the discovery of the struc- Gelernter about the state of artii cial Felicia Nimue Ackerman ture of DNA (“Letter to a Young Sci- intelligence (“Artii cial Intelligence Providence, RI entist,” September/October 2007). Six Is Lost in the Woods,” July/August brilliant men posing side by side with 2007). It does seem as if AI research is Conservative British philosopher their Nobel Prizes: i ve great scientists lost in its quest to emulate conscious Roger Scruton is profoundly uneasy and ... John Steinbeck! I wonder who, thought. However, artii cial life, a small about the morality of seeking to live as they sidled together for the picture, of shoot of AI research, makes the sub- for hundreds of years, and he makes was more in awe of whom? versive presumption that, as in nature, elegantly referenced arguments about Larry Casey conscious behavior emerges from the why such a quest is a bad idea (“The Huntsville, AL bottom up: that is, it arises from the Trouble with Knowledge,” May/June daily toils of simple systems evolving 2007). However, his arguments over- Alieu Conteh into complexity. look one simple fact: each new break- I found inspiration in the most unlikely Two recent achievements come to through will of er us not immortality place this morning. I ran across your mind: the entries in the DARPA Grand but simply the opportunity to not die Q&A with African entrepreneur Alieu Challenge robotic road race and the today. That is how longevity has been Conteh (September/October 2007), twin Martian rovers. In both cases, achieved over the last 100 years: each in which he recounts the fascinating the coupling of software with robotic wave of miracle drugs has helped push tale of his successful attempt to build sensors and mechanics seems to have the grim reaper back a few years. The a mobile-communications network in achieved a close approximation of a war-torn Congo. What a remarkable prime component of intelligent sys- story of vision, energy, and optimism. tems: proactive self-preservation. How to contact us Ive enjoyed a subscription to your pub- Even though imbuing conscious E-mail [email protected] lication for several years, but this is the thought in computers is not on the Write Technology Review, One Main Street, i rst time Im circulating an article not radar screen of those in artii cial-life 7th Floor, Cambridge MA 02142 simply because it informed me about research, there is a sense that it may be Fax 617-475-8043 Please include your address, telephone number, technology but because it moved me. just beyond the edge of the screen. and e-mail address. Letters may be edited for Bill Cooke Maurice Havelday both clarity and length. Dearborn Heights, MI Morgan Hill, CA

8 LETTERS TECHNOLOGY REVIEW november/december 2007