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Vedanta Ltd (SESGOA) | 211 Target : | 200 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : -5% Muted Performance…

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Vedanta Ltd (SESGOA) | 211 Target : | 200 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : -5% Muted Performance… Result Update May 4, 2015 Rating matrix Rating : Hold Vedanta Ltd (SESGOA) | 211 Target : | 200 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : -5% Muted performance…. • Vedanta Ltd (erstwhile Sesa Sterlite) reported a subdued set of What’s Changed? Q4FY15 numbers wherein the topline and EBITDA came in notably Target Changed from | 194 to | 200 EPS FY16E Changed from | 20.3 to | 22.5 lower than our expectations EPS FY17E Changed from | 23.7 to | 27.9 • The topline for the quarter came in at | 17804.6 crore, down 12.2% Rating YoY and 7.4% QoQ and below our estimate of | 18354.2 crore Unchanged • The EBITDA came in at | 4014.0 crore (EBITDA margin 22.5%), down Quarterly Performance 19.5% YoY and 34.7% QoQ (our estimate: | 5443.3 crore) Q4FY15 Q4FY14 YoY (%) Q3FY15 QoQ (%) • For Q4FY15, the company reported a loss due to exceptional items. Revenue 17,804.6 19,523.0 -8.8 19,549.4 -8.9 Exceptional items in the quarter include a one-time non cash EBITDA 4,014.0 6,490.3 -38.2 6,326.9 -36.6 impairment charge of | 19956 crore largely relating to the Cairn India EBITDA (%) 22.5 33.2 -1070 bps 32.4 -982 bps acquisition goodwill and the Sri Lanka block on account of a steep Adj PAT 491.4 1,868.6 -73.7 1,619.3 -69.7 fall in crude oil prices • Reported net loss (after exceptional item) stood at | 19228 crore Key Financials while adjusted PAT (before exceptional item) stood at | 491.4 crore (|Crore) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Net Sales 65733 73364 79630 84134 • Along with the subdued performance from Cairn India (oil & gas EBITDA (Core) 20360 22045 22451 23453 division), muted volume of Zinc International and one-off Adj Net Profit (Attrib) 6466 5060 6660 8258 provisioning in the power business further dented the company’s EPS (|) 21.8 17.1 22.5 27.9 financial performance z Zinc business - feather in the cap Valuation summary The company’s domestic zinc business (Hindustan Zinc), on a sustainable FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E basis, reported a robust performance with healthy EBITDA margins, PE (x) 9.8 12.5 9.5 7.6 Target PE (x) 9.2 11.7 8.9 7.2 thereby generating good cash flows for the group. With well charted EV/EBITDA (x) 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 growth plans, the Zinc (India) business is expected to deliver robust P/BV (x) 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.0 performances for the group, going forward. RoNW (%) 8.9 9.4 11.2 12.4 Cairn India reduces FY16 capex on lower crude oil prices RoCE (%) 8.8 11.3 11.4 11.7 In the current scenario of low crude oil prices, the company has changed its capex strategy and reduced its planned capex for FY16E from US$1.2 Stock data billion to US$500 million. The company will now focus on its core MBA Particular Amount fields that are profitable at lower crude oil prices. It has allocated 45% of Market Capitalisation | 63155 Crore Debt (FY15) (Actual - A) | 77752 Crore the total capex to the core MBA field with focus on Mangala Polymer EOR Cash, Liquid Invests (FY15) (A) | 46212 Crore and MBA infill drilling. It has allocated 40% to growth projects with focus EV | 94695 Crore on Mangala & Aishwariya fields and on the new gas terminal and pipeline, 52 week H/L 318/178 which has been approved by the management committee. The Equity capital | 296.5 Crore exploration allocation, which is nearly 30% of FY15E capex has been Face value | 1 reduced to 15% i.e. US$75 million mainly due to low crude oil prices. The projects that have been deferred in light of lower crude oil prices include Price performance (%) satellite fields, Mangala Processing Terminal upgrade, Return % 1M3M6M12MBhagyam/Aishwariya polymer and Rajasthan exploration drilling. Hindustan Zinc 4.5 -3.2 -1.2 31.4 Sesa-Sterlite 10.7 3.9 -18.0 13.2 Disappointing performance from oil & gas, Zinc International… Hindalco Ind -0.3 -7.9 -21.4 -4.2 For the quarter, Vedanta reported a muted performance on account of the subdued performance from Zinc International and Cairn India. However, Research Analyst we were positively surprised by the aluminium business wherein QoQ, Dewang Sanghavi cost of production (CoP) declined ~10% in Balco and ~3% in [email protected] Jharsuguda. Reduced capex across the group provides support to higher free cash flow generation, which augurs well for the company. We have a positive view on the company’s domestic zinc business (HZL) on account of strong underlying fundamentals. However, we have a cautious view on the company due to the huge debt pile and a skewed EBITDA profile. We have valued the company using SOTP valuation and arrived at a target price of | 200. We have a HOLD rating on the stock. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis Q4FY15 Q4FY15E Q4FY14 YoY (%) Q3FY15 QoQ (%) Comments The topline came in below expectations primarily on the back Revenue 17,804.6 18,237.8 19,523.0 -8.8 19,549.4 -8.9 of subdued sales volume of Zinc International Other Income 41.1 998.0 389.9 -89.4 686.1 -94.0 Raw Material Expense 6,192.8 6,350.5 7,325.9 -15.5 6,646.2 -6.8 Employee Expense 812.1 689.4 796.9 1.9 728.8 11.4 Power & Fuel 2,134.6 2,125.8 1,372.9 55.5 2,110.6 1.1 Other operating Expenses 4,651.2 3,508.9 3,537.0 31.5 3,736.9 24.5 EBITDA came in notably lower than our expectation on account of the muted performance from Cairn India, Zinc EBITDA 4,014.0 5,563.2 6,490.3 -38.2 6,326.9 -36.6 International and one-off provisioning in the power business EBITDA Margin (%) 22.5 30.5 33.2-1070 bps 32.4 -982 bps Depreciation 763.5 2,223.4 2,004.1 -61.9 2,003.3 -61.9 Interest 1,320.8 1,399.8 1,529.8 -13.7 1,471.6 -10.2 The company reported a loss due to exceptional items. Exceptional items during the quarter include a one-time non- cash impairment charge of | 19956 crore largely relating to the Cairn India acquisition goodwill and the Sri Lanka block on account of a steep fall in crude oil prices. Exceptional item Exceptional Item 20,139.6 293.9 -81.8 NM -169.7 NM also includes forex loss during the quarter PBT -18,168.8 2,644.1 3,428.1 -630.0 3,707.8 3,557.7 Tax Outgo 549.4 587.6 -138.5 -496.5 560.1 -1.9 PAT -18,718.1 2,056.5 3,566.6 -624.8 3,147.7 -694.7 PAT was notably impacted by exceptional item Attributable PAT 513.8 808.9 1,698.0 -69.7 1,528.5 -66.4 Adj Attributable PAT -19,232.0 1,247.6 1,868.6 -1,129.2 1,619.3 -1,287.7 Key Metrics HZL, Zinc Sales (tonne) 223,000 216,000 184,000 21.2 193,000 15.5 Zinc (India) volume came in higher than estimate HZL, Lead Sales (tonne) 37,000 32,000 37,000 0.0 30,000 23.3 Lead (India) volume came in higher than estimate Zinc International volumes came in notably lower than Zinc Int, Metal Production (tonne) 69,000 80,000 83,000 -16.9 80,000 -13.8 estimate Copper Production (tonne) 97,000 99,000 98,000 -1.0 99,000 -2.0 Copper volumes came in broadly in line with estimates Aluminium Production (tonne) 229,000 224,000 200,000 14.5 224,000 2.2 Aluminium volumes came in marginally lower than estimate Eletricity Sales (million units) 2,547 2,660 2,093 21.7 2,663 -4.4 Electricity volumes came in marginally lower than estimate Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates FY16E FY17E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments Revenue 84707 80,010 -5.5 85,850 84,552 -1.5 Marginally downward revised revenue estimates EBITDA 23381 22,451 -4.0 23,977 23,453 -2.2 Marginally downward revised revenue estimates EBITDA Margin (%) 27.6 28.1 50 bps 27.9 27.7 (20) bps Upward revised PAT estimates on higher Zinc and Lead prices and lower CoP for PAT 6028 6,660 10.5 7,034 8,258 17.4 Aluminium Business EPS (|) 20.3 22.5 10.5 23.7 27.9 17.4 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E HZL, Zinc Sales (tonne) 760246 779793 760246 779793 Maintained estimates HZL, Lead Sales (tonne) 129500 133200 129500 133200 Maintained estimates Silver sales(kgs) 362600 372960 362600 372960 Maintained estimates Copper Production (tonne) 344250 372600 344250 372600 Maintained estimates Aluminium Production (tonne) 900000 962500 800000 862500 Upward revised estimates Eletricity Sales (million units) 14338 15316 14338 15316 Maintained estimates LME Zinc (US$/tonne) 2250 2300 2200 2225 Upward revised estimates LME Lead (US$/tonne) 2000 2050 1950 2000 Upward revised estimates LME Aluminium (US$/tonne) 2000 2050 2000 2100 Maintained estimates LME Copper (US$/tonne) 6000 6500 6796 6728 Revised downward USD:INR 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Maintained estimates Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Company Analysis Hindustan Zinc (HZL) • During the quarter, zinc metal CoP before royalty stood at | 50831/tonne (US$ 820/tonne), down 8% YoY (in US$ terms).
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