House of Commons Welsh Affairs Committee

The future of the Welsh Regiments

Oral and written evidence

5 July 2012

Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 5 July 2012

HC 372-i Session 2012-13 Published on 2 August 2013 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £6.00

The Welsh Affairs Committee

The Welsh Affairs Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of the Office of the Secretary of State for Wales (including relations with the National Assembly for Wales).

Current membership David T.C. Davies MP (Conservative, Monmouth) (Chair) Guto Bebb MP (Conservative, Aberconwy) Geraint Davies MP (Labour, Swansea West) Glyn Davies MP (Conservative, Montgomeryshire) Stephen Doughty MP (Labour, Cardiff South and Penarth) Jonathan Edwards MP (Plaid Cymru, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr) Nia Griffith MP (Labour, Llanelli) Simon Hart MP (Conservative, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire) Mrs Siân C. James MP (Labour, Swansea East) Karen Lumley MP (Conservative, Redditch) Jessica Morden MP (Labour, Newport East) Mr Mark Williams MP (Liberal Democrat, Ceredigion)

The following Members were also members of the Committee during this Parliament

Stuart Andrews MP (Conservative, Pudsey) Alun Cairns MP (Conservative, Vale of Glamorgan) Susan Elan Jones MP (Labour, Clwyd South) Owen Smith MP (Labour, Pontypridd) Robin Walker MP (Conservative, Worcester)

Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 152. These are available on the internet via www.parliament.uk

Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. All publications of the Committee (including press notices) are on the internet at www.parliament.uk/welshcom

The Reports of the Committee, the formal minutes relating to that report, oral evidence taken and some or all written evidence are available in printed volumes.

Additional written evidence may be published on the internet only.

Committee staff The current staff of the Committee is Marek Kubala (Clerk), Anwen Rees (Committee Specialist), Alison Mara (Senior Committee Assistant), Baris Tufekci (Committee Assistant), and Jessica Bridges-Palmer (Media Officer).

Contacts All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Welsh Affairs Committee, House of Commons, 7 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA. The telephone number for general enquiries is 020 7219 3264; and the Committee’s email address is [email protected]

List of witnesses

Thursday 5 July 2013 Page

Professor Andrew Dorman, Professor in International Security, King’s College, London Ev 1

Colonel (retd) Timothy Wilson OBE, former member of 1st The Queen’s Dragoon Guards, and Major General (retd) Christopher Elliott CVO CBE, formerly Colonel of the Regiment of the Royal Regiment of Wales and Divisional Commandant of the Prince of Wales Division Ev 5

List of written evidence

1 National Express Group Wales & Borders Train Operating Company Ev 10 2 Michael Propert Lewis Ev 16 3 Antoinette Sandbach AM Ev 16 4 Letter from the Chair of the Welsh Affairs Committee to Rt Hon Philip Hammond MP, Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence Ev 17 5 Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence Ev 18

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Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence Ev 1

Oral evidence

Taken before the Welsh Affairs Committee on Thursday 5 July 2012

Members present: David T.C. Davies (Chair)

Guto Bebb Jessica Morden Geraint Davies Mr Robin Walker Jonathan Edwards Mr Mark Williams Nia Griffith ______

Examination of Witness

Witness: Professor Andrew Dorman, Professor in International Security, King’s College, London, gave evidence.

Q1 Chair: Good morning, Professor Dorman. Thank Q4 Geraint Davies: Can I ask how realistic you you very much indeed for coming along at fairly think the global reduction in numbers is in terms of short notice. an uncertain future? In particular, how likely is it, Professor Dorman: Thank you for inviting me. given the changes the Government are now making in employment tribunals—that small companies can get Q2 Chair: We may try and rattle through this rid of people they don’t like more easily—that people because, as I will explain to the next witnesses, I think will want to join the Territorial Army to prop up a everyone is going to want to try and be in or around one-legged army? the Chamber for 11.30 am to hear what the statement Professor Dorman: In terms of the numbers coming is, so this will be fairly short. down and whether it makes sense, given the economic Could I begin by asking you what the background is position, the Government have decided that the armed behind the Strategic Defence and Security Review? forces—Ministry of Defence—need to make a Professor Dorman: Certainly. There are three basic significant cut. If you look across Whitehall there is reasons why the coalition Government talked about an assumption that defence has not taken as significant having a Strategic Defence and Security Review. a cut as other Government Departments. I will leave Indeed, all the three main parties talked about having it for you to decide whether that is appropriate or not. a review in this Parliament. Looking at expenditure within defence, basically, The first one is—hopefully with the armed forces there are two things in the budget: equipment and coming out of the combat role in Afghanistan—what people. If you want to get new equipment you need to happens to the armed forces post-Afghanistan? What reduce overall personnel costs. One way of reducing type of armed forces do we need? Second is the personnel costs is to cut lots of people. That is one of argument as to where UK defence and security policy the things you are seeing, reducing the costs of needs to go. There hasn’t been a really major defence personnel and, to a degree, some reductions in review since the 1998 Strategic Defence Review and equipment capabilities. That is the only way to do we have had 9/11 and a whole series of issues since that. then. Which direction should defence and security policy follow? The third is the economic situation in Q5 Chair: Am I right in thinking that we are likely which the Ministry of Defence and the Government to rely much more on equipment than on manpower, found themselves that drove them towards making and that is a trend that has been going on for some significant cuts. years now, in a sort of high-tech first-world army? Professor Dorman: Since the end of the second world Q3 Chair: Could you tell us why the Army is war, we have seen, in most western forces—if you suffering a bigger reduction in manpower than any of think of NATO forces—a qualitative rather than a the other two services? quantitative emphasis: that we would always have a Professor Dorman: Proportionally, it is not technological lead offset by having a reduced number particularly suffering. What we are seeing is a longer of personnel, so we would have fewer people but more period to undertake the cuts, the reason being that, and better equipment. That has been a tradition we under the original 2010 SDSR, the Army was only have been following for more than half a century now. going to be reduced to 90,000 by 2020. The reductions Whether we will be able to maintain that were slower so as to support the war in Afghanistan. technological lead is subject to much discussion and The Navy and the Air Force could take their cuts debate because we have not invested masses in earlier. With the three-month review that Liam Fox research and development recently. We might lose that undertook last year, the Army cuts are going further technological lead, but all three services are down than that. However, if you look at the overall emphasising that they want to try and maximise their numbers, the Navy and the Air Force have both taken technological superiority as much as possible at the significant cuts in personnel. expense of personnel. cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

Ev 2 Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence

5 July 2012 Professor Andrew Dorman

Chair: Thank you very much. I am sorry, I cut across to do that, in terms of regimental amalgamation, will you a little bit there, Geraint. be seen in an hour or so.

Q6 Geraint Davies: I wanted to know whether you Q9 Guto Bebb: To clarify, are you concerned that thought it was realistic that we would make up the political pressure might result in a settlement which is numbers from people coming forward, given that not what the Army was looking for in the first there is uncertainty in the employment markets and instance? people are more insecure. Professor Dorman: I am concerned that it might not Professor Dorman: It is difficult. Personnel numbers get it. Historically, and in previous reviews and and recruitment are always a challenge. At the reorganisations of the Army, there has always been a moment, recruitment is not much of a problem for the bias to certain countries within the United Kingdom. armed forces. Ironically enough, whenever there is a If you look at the current structure of the Army, in war, recruitment goes up. People seem to want to join terms of, for example, its infantry battalions, it does the armed forces when there is a war, for various not represent all four nations of the United Kingdom reasons. Once we are into peacetime, post- equally in proportion to their populations. It is Afghanistan, it will be interesting to see how well the doubtful that this will be changed with the current armed forces recruit themselves. However, with the review. I think the Army would prefer to cut, reductions, they should be able to get to those particularly, some of the Scottish battalions, but it numbers. might not be able to.

Q7 Chair: On that issue of recruitment, are many of Q10 Mr Williams: This was a question I was going the regiments across the UK still having problems in to ask a bit later but this is an opportune moment. Do recruiting within the UK? We read that a lot of them you think Wales could suffer as a consequence of a are having to go overseas. political bias towards Scotland? Professor Dorman: Yes. There are two provisos you Professor Dorman: If you look at the current have to make. There are three regiments that always structure of the infantry, for example, there are 36 recruit outside the United Kingdom. Obviously, the battalions. Two of them are parachute battalions Gurkhas recruit solely from outside the United which are from the four nations. Two are Gurkha Kingdom—apart from their officer corps. The other battalions. You have a question mark about whether ones to bear in mind are the Irish Guards and the the UK should continue to recruit Gurkha officers or Royal Irish Regiment who have traditionally recruited not and Gurkha battalions because they cost slightly from the whole of Ireland—both north and south of more than ordinary battalions now. As a result of the the border. reforms that have gone through, they are no longer When you look at some of the other regiments in cheap battalions to recruit. If you look at the terms of overall recruitment, in particular, the Scottish remaining 32, there is disproportionate representation, battalions are struggling to recruit and have particularly from Scotland but also from Wales and disproportionate numbers of non-UK citizens, and Northern Ireland. Historically, whenever we have had also quite a number in logistical units and things like cuts, Governments of all political persuasions have that. If you want the actual details, there are written been loth to cut Scottish battalions. I suspect, with the answers in Parliament and I can give you a reference upcoming vote in Scotland, that will remain the case. on that. Q11 Chair: Why has that been the case previously, Q8 Guto Bebb: How well or otherwise do you Professor Dorman? believe the Ministry of Defence has handled the Professor Dorman: If you go back to Options for review process? Change in 1990Ð91, there was talk of the Professor Dorman: What you see is that the Army amalgamation of a number of Scottish battalions, but started a whole review in July last year—what type of when they decided to reduce the number of battalions army the nation needs and how it supports its they were cutting—the Scots—the then Secretary of interests—and it is coming up with a sensible, State for Defence, Malcolm Rifkind, who was a inventive and articulate argument. My real concern, in Scottish MP, I think was trying to protect the Scottish terms of what they are producing with the structures vote in Scotland. they are talking about and what we have heard, is how In 2004, when we had infantry reorganisation and four much they are able to put that through; how much battalions were scheduled to be cut, the maths said they are going to be affected by, in a sense, the politics two Scottish battalions should have gone and only one of Whitehall or Westminster when it comes to which went. I think, within the Labour Party, they did not regiments or units to cut. One of the things the Army want to be seen to be hitting Scotland too much by is looking at is maintaining the regimental system—it the Scottish nationalists, so politics were involved. has never wanted to go away from that and it wants to retain representation from across the United Q12 Mr Williams: What are your concerns with this Kingdom—but it is aware of two other factors: how specific review? You gave us some good maths there regiments are recruiting currently and the future in terms of proportions with Scotland and Wales, but demographics of the country. The demographics of the there is concern about the Welsh position. country are shifting how it should be looking at its Professor Dorman: My concerns are with the logic. regimental recruitments, so you would want to shift If you look at it just for the infantry, in the 2004 some of the regimental focus. The extent it is allowed reforms we went into multi-battalion regiments. The cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence Ev 3

5 July 2012 Professor Andrew Dorman idea, then, was that they could abandon the arms plot Q17 Jessica Morden: From what you were saying that was perpetually moving units between different earlier, is it true to say that in the Welsh regiments locations and uprooting families. Instead, the people there is no problem with recruitment? they needed to move around were the officers and the Professor Dorman: Largely, the Welsh regiments are senior NCO cadre as a way of training them. Most well recruited. According to the figures in a written ordinary soldiers did not need to move around that answer to Parliament, the Welsh regiments are doing much, so they went to the largely multi-battalion very well. No regiment is perfect, but they have quite regiments, with a few exceptions. The Welsh have a significant overseas proportion. done that. If you cut one of the Welsh battalions, unless it is the Guards Battalion, you will abandon it Q18 Nia Griffith: I have a question on the issue of and you will be unpicking that whole scenario. You the demographic trends. From what I understand, we are not going to be able to fully train Welsh officers are saying that t he Welsh recruitment figures are and NCOs unless you move them to other regiments, healthy and those recruits are able to take part in the so I think the Welsh may suffer. The logic, looking at present structure. Is there likely to be any effect on the demographics, is that the cuts should particularly future recruitment if any of the Welsh regiments focus on Scotland and the north-east and north-west were lost? of England. Professor Dorman: I suspect the gentlemen who will give evidence next are going to be better placed to Q13 Chair: Is that based on the sort of Buggins’s talk about recruitment for individual Welsh regiments, turn rule or are you basing that on what would be and hopefully they will correct anything I get wrong. best militarily? If you reduce your overall footprint by going down Professor Dorman: Basically, we can look at where to, say, one regiment, you are reducing some of the the population is for 0 to 18-year-olds because the localised ties. You are having to use the idea of a Army is not really interested in anybody above 25 at Welsh identity for one regiment, if the main regiment the moment. We have all missed our turn by that goes down from two battalions to one. Potentially, it point. It is looking at the next generation coming can have an impact as to how much local in-contact through. It is looking at birth rates and also at you have, but I think the next witnesses have a much traditional recruiting statistics within those regions. If better picture and detail of that than I have. you look at the demographics that are projected, the particular growth area is towards the south and the Q19 Geraint Davies: You mentioned the east of the United Kingdom. The population is demographics, but don’t you think relative growing more in those areas. The population is unemployment and availability of skills should be growing least in Scotland. borne in mind alongside the Welsh identity? There are only 3 million people—out of 60 million—in Wales Q14 Nia Griffith: While we would accept that there and we need a Welsh identity. There is relatively high is a large population growth in the south-east of unemployment and therefore availability of people England, is it not true that Wales has also provided a even if the birth rate is lower. healthy number of recruits for the forces? Therefore, Professor Dorman: I understand your comment. In a when looking at the criteria used, do you feel that sense, this is where politics should play a part. The the MOD is using appropriate criteria overall and that Army’s role is not to look at levels of unemployment. sufficient weight is given to the current demographic It is going to look at where it can recruit and— contribution from Wales to the forces? Nia Griffith: But they are related. Professor Dorman: The Army would like to use three criteria. One is existing recruitment rates, second is Q20 Geraint Davies: That is what I mean. They are future demographics and the third is ensuring that it unemployed and therefore they can go to the Army. has a spread throughout the United Kingdom—units Professor Dorman: Bear in mind that what the Army drawn from across the United Kingdom. It talks about will be looking at is the propensity to join the Army, a footprint. The fourth dimension, which it has no whether there is full employment or unemployment control over, which would be the political dimension, because, hopefully, the economy will turn round and is as to how much politics plays a part in all of this. you will see peaks and troughs in employment cycles. Geraint Davies: And unemployment, in particular. The Army looks at it over a period, when there is near to full employment and when there are periods of high Q15 Jessica Morden: What proportion of army unemployment. What it does not want to do is personnel comes from Wales? concentrate on an area of high unemployment which Professor Dorman: I can find that particular statistic then has full employment and it can’t recruit. It is out for you. I do not actually have it on me, but I can trying to look over a long-term cycle. provide it. Q21 Geraint Davies: But they say the DVLA was Q16 Jessica Morden: Would it be 10% or roughly put in Swansea specifically because it is a weak part that? of the economy at the end of a railway line, type of Professor Dorman: To be honest, I do not know. It is thing. Similarly, shouldn’t the Army be looking at in the Defence Statistics, which is an annual where there is a demand for recruits, even if there is publication. I can find that reference and give it to a lower birth rate, and there is higher natural you. unemployment? cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

Ev 4 Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence

5 July 2012 Professor Andrew Dorman

Professor Dorman: It will look at the areas where Q24 Chair: You actually said they were slightly there is a greater propensity for it to recruit from, on more expensive than British soldiers, man for man. which unemployment has an impact, but it also needs Professor Dorman: When I say slightly, I mean they to ensure that it fully represents—not quite—the have different leave entitlement from the rest of the whole of the United Kingdom. It needs to be able United Kingdom simply because they have to get to to be seen to be recruiting from all regions of the Nepal and back. They get slightly increased leave United Kingdom. entitlement to get back, and you have a recruiting infrastructure separate for them into Nepal. Q22 Guto Bebb: I have a quick question in view of the comments you have made about the decisions Q25 Chair: But isn’t one of the battalions paid for being influenced by politics and not reflecting, by the Sultan of Brunei or somebody? possibly, the priorities of the Army in terms of what Professor Dorman: The Sultan of Brunei pays for one they would like to do. Has that had any effect on the of the battalions. confidence of the forces in the changes being implemented or proposed, and has that had an effect Q26 Chair: So that one doesn’t cost us anything. on the morale of service personnel? Professor Dorman: It doesn’t cost that he wants a Professor Dorman: In any period in which there is battalion to guard. There is a question mark as to uncertainty that will impact the future of regiments— whether, for example, a UK battalion could provide and the Army is like most organisations when there is that capability. That would be a question of discussion uncertainty—people’s morale tends to drop a bit. We with the Sultan. don’t like uncertainty. We are human beings and people want to preserve things. The regimental Q27 Chair: If the Sultan is paying for them, can we identity is about family. It is their family that they are use them for anything we want or are they out there very much a part of and any threat to that or concern guarding the Sultan? about whether their regiment is going to go will Professor Dorman: The battalion in Brunei is out impact on that local community. The quicker you can there supporting the Sultan of Brunei in relation to deal with that the better, as an organisation, but these Brunei, but it also provides a facility which we use things take time, so there is a balance between the for jungle warfare training, so one of things they also Army, in a sense, getting it right and local needs. We provide is jungle war fighting. have already heard—at least in the leaked letter to The Daily Telegraph—about the issue with the Royal Q28 Chair: What we are getting is a training base in Regiment of Fusiliers and the devastating impact on a jungle. one regiment. When you lose a regiment it has Professor Dorman: We are getting the training base significant local impact. and influence with a country which has significant oil wealth in a very important part of the world and has Q23 Chair: Professor Dorman, could I put you on been a long-established ally of the United Kingdom. the spot a moment and ask you this? If you were the Chief of Defence Staff or the Defence Minister and Q29 Chair: I don’t want to put this too much into you had to make some reductions, where would you the vernacular: he’s been a mate of ours, but he is one look to make them: Scotland, Wales, elsewhere, of the richest men in the world and he has a lot of oil. infantry, armoured corps or something entirely Do we need— different? Professor Dorman: He could pay for the other Professor Dorman: While I don’t know the numbers battalion too. they are going to reduce battalions by, I would suggest To answer your question: first, I would look at the there has to be a serious question mark about whether Gurkhas and, secondly, the disproportionate the Gurkhas are retained within the armed forces. representation of the Scots and their problems with Historically, the logic behind recruiting and keeping recruitment. I would probably reduce the Scottish them was that, first, they were a good way—and I am regiment by two to three battalions. not diminishing them and I don’t want to underplay Chair: Thank you very much. I realise that I have them or their abilities as fighting soldiers—of rapidly kept this rather short and that there may be others who increasing numbers of personnel in the armed forces wanted to get in, but I think everyone here is going to if we had problems with recruiting. Secondly, they be very interested to get to the Chamber for 11.30 am. were cheaper, historically—but that has changed. I am minded to bring this to a close now and call the Thirdly, it was about investment in Nepal. Those last next witnesses. Thank you, once again, for coming in two factors are becoming more and more problematic. and doing this for us. We appreciate it. 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Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence Ev 5

Examination of Witnesses

Witnesses: Colonel (retd) Timothy Wilson OBE, former member of 1st The Queen’s Dragoon Guards, and Major General (retd) Christopher Elliott CVO CBE, formerly Colonel of the Regiment of the Royal Regiment of Wales and Divisional Commandant of the Prince of Wales Division, gave evidence.

Q30 Chair: Colonel Wilson and Major General Major General Elliott: I am going to pass that one, Elliott, thank you for coming in at short notice. I first, to Tim because the fears are not so great in his presume you will want to finish at about 20 past 11 to case. Then come to me. go and listen to this announcement, so I will start. Colonel Wilson: Our fears have been that the Queen’s Could I ask you both what your relationship is with Dragoon Guards is the only cavalry armoured the regiments that you are speaking for today and also regiment represented in Wales and, therefore, if a what their contribution has been recently in terms of regiment such as ourselves was disbanded or Britain’s defence? Perhaps we will take Colonel amalgamated, Wales would lose an opportunity to Wilson first. have representation within the cavalry within the Colonel Wilson: I retired from the Army about three British Army. Most critically, those people who want months ago, leaving the Army early. I commanded the to join the Army would lose the choice. Currently, the Queen’s Dragoon Guards—the Welsh Cavalry—about choice is, if they want to join the combat arms, that five or six years ago in Germany and Iraq. My most they can join a household regiment, the Welsh Guards; recent job in the Army was as Chief of Staff for the they can join a line infantry regiment, the Royal Royal Armoured Corps which was looking at the early Welsh; or they can join a cavalry armoured regiment, implementation of Army 2020. Since leaving the the Queen’s Dragoon Guards—the Welsh Cavalry. Army I have been involved in the “Save the Welsh Cavalry” campaign as a member of the Regimental Q33 Chair: Colonel Wilson, for those who perhaps Council. don’t have the military experience that you have, could you explain the difference between line infantry Q31 Chair: What about the contribution of the and the Guards, for the record, the armoured Queen’s Dragoon Guards in recent conflicts? regiments? Colonel Wilson: The contribution of the Queen’s Colonel Wilson: Yes, I will. The infantry is essentially Dragoon Guards is that it has very recently returned— divided into two elements, the household division— a couple of months ago—from a second tour of or the household regiments—such as the Welsh Afghanistan; did two tours of Iraq; was also in both Guards, the Grenadier Guards, the Coldstream Guards, the Irish Guards and the Scots Guards. The Gulf wars, and was in Bosnia and Kosovo as well as line regiments are those who are not household. Northern Ireland over the last 20 years. Within the Royal Armoured Corps, the Royal Major General Elliott: I am Christopher Elliott. I Armoured Corps is comprised of the Household have 38 years of regular service starting with the Cavalry— South Wales Borderers, which was my father’s regiment, then the Royal Regiment of Wales and now Q34 Chair: What does the term “household” mean? the Royal Welsh. I was a commanding officer of the Colonel Wilson: “Household” means responsible for 1st Battalion of the Royal Regiment of Wales. I normal operations but also public duties, so finished as Colonel of the Regiment for five years and predominantly in London. That is what the Royal then Colonel Commandant of the Prince of Wales’s Household is. The Royal Armoured Corps is divided Division during the last iteration of the Future Infantry into the Household Cavalry, which again has a Structures seven years ago. I am retired. I am the ceremonial function, and the Line Cavalry, which are director of the Army Sport Control Board, which I other cavalry regiments—Hussars, Dragoon Guards have been doing for seven years. and so on—and the Royal Tank Regiment. Those are As far as our two battalions are concerned, they were the three elements of the Royal Armoured Corps. formed in 2006 after the last iteration of cuts, which Chair: Thank you very much. was a merger. The first battalion is in Afghanistan Major General Elliott: In our case, the fears are quite right now in the middle of its tour and has been significant. Bear in mind that we have two battalions. involved in previous tours as well. The second They are nationally found and so the recruiting battalion, an armoured infantry battalion based in footprint is throughout Wales, which is a good thing. Tidworth, has been involved in Iraq and throughout But if you believe the newspapers—from The Daily Afghanistan because they have been producing Telegraph—and the reports in this morning’s news, it armoured infantry companies to support brigades looks as though the 2nd Battalion of the Royal Welsh there, so there is a continual stream of Welsh soldiers is to be cut. That is the battalion that sits in Tidworth in the armoured infantry role going to Afghanistan. and is an armoured infantry battalion. That is the They are currently doing what is commonly known as bigger of the two. It has more manpower. QED, if a demonstration battalion (the Land Warfare you extrapolate that, you will get more unemployment Battlegroup) on Salisbury Plain but are preparing to coming from that battalion. It is not simply the go next time round. battalion, which is based at Tidworth, but it is all those Chair: Thank you very much indeed. other jobs which are attached to that battalion or operating outside the battalion. You are talking of Q32 Mr Williams: Gentlemen, what fears do you about 650 jobs going if that particular battalion goes have for the Welsh regiments under the future Army and then the consequent effect on unemployment, 2020 proposals, and why do you have those concerns? housing, families, and so on, as well as the lowering cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

Ev 6 Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence

5 July 2012 Colonel (retd) Timothy Wilson OBE and Major General (retd) Christopher Elliott CVO CBE of morale. You cannot argue against that. That will be particularly in the infantry. I have to say it was a pretty a fact. My deep concern is that the decisions have bloody affair as the horse trading went on. It wasn’t been made. So, for us, I think we need to turn the just cutting manpower; it was basing, roles and the thing around and look at the positives. whole thing. It was pretty exposed to the media, with When it comes to the Royal Welsh the key, to my a lot of political pressure and a lot of pressures from mind, is that we should retain that armoured infantry the veterans. This time it has been kept on very, very battalion at Tidworth—the bigger and punchier of the close hold by the Chief of the General Staff. That is two, the one that has the armoured infantry role— commendable because it has stopped a lot of lobbying because that is the one that is really going to be doing and so on. The details will be out today and we will the business from this point onwards, as it has been get on and do it. demonstrably over the last five years in Afghanistan. That leaves the situation with 1 Royal Welsh up at Q36 Mr Walker: I want to take you back to Chester, which is a light role battalion which has not something you were saying earlier, which was the been as heavily used as the armoured infantry distinction between the light infantry and the battalion. armoured infantry. Are there cost implications in Bear in mind that it is not only the Royal Welsh. There deciding to get rid of one or the other and also could may well be a gunner regiment going who also recruit you perhaps give a little illustration, for those of us in Wales. I believe that probably is the 39 Regiment without a military background, of their respective Royal Artillery. The other fear—and you have alluded roles and the roles they have been playing in to it already—is the reality of the TA. A lot of political Afghanistan? scoring has been made by back-filling the capability Major General Elliott: Indeed. There are cost of the Army with the TA, ramping up the numbers implications. At the top end of the spectrum, the and significantly ramping up the funding. The reality armoured infantry means more manpower, so you are is, first, in recruiting and getting people through the talking about a higher establishment of more men and door at a time when, of course, the Army is declining. more highly trained men because it is more technical, Having been, as I was, director of Army recruiting at using the Warrior as the basic armoured vehicle with one stage, I know that recruiting at a time when an a 20 mm Raden cannon on top and so on. It is a very organisation is shrinking is particularly difficult. I effective piece of equipment, as has been amply suspect there may be a rather difficult trick to pull in demonstrated in Iraq and Afghanistan. That is why the ramping up the TA members. Also, there is the issue 2nd Battalion is based at Tidworth, to be right next to of employers allowing their people to go on Salisbury Plain in order to train. Equipment is operations and training, and also the training regime certainly one issue. It is high tech and, therefore, which is going to match this increase in the utility of expensive. However, the procurement system has the TA. I am not sure that those pieces of the puzzle recently made an announcement that they are going to are in place yet. upgrade the Warrior so all that money is in place and that programme is in place. That particular battalion, Q35 Mr Williams: I will be very quick. You touched if it stays in Tidworth, will be right at the top end of on the morale of servicemen and women. Can you the infantry war-fighting spectrum. say a little more about the level of morale and your A light role battalion is largely on its feet. Obviously, assessment of that? Also very quickly, how satisfied it has less capability in war fighting. None the less, in have you been with the MOD’s handling of the sustaining operations and enduring operations, it has whole process? a terrific role to play, and that the 1st Battalion has Major General Elliott: Professor Dorman referred to done really well. They are doing precisely that in there being low morale whenever you have Afghanistan right now, but it is at the lower end of uncertainty. We have had a lot of uncertainty over this the spectrum. last year, but particularly since March because we know that the military plans have been set since then. Q37 Jessica Morden: To go back to your point about So we have had this interregnum until this reservists, certainly people I have spoken to have announcement. It is a good thing the announcement is borne out your view that there’s not enough capacity coming up right now so that we can get on and do our there yet to train and recruit reservists. How realistic job. Inevitably, there will be expectations—those in or easy is it for somebody who might lose their job in the officer corps who thought they were going to be a the announcement today to join the reservists? You commanding officer of their particular battalion—that need resettlement packages. How does that work? will not necessarily be realised, and the same for the Major General Elliott: You can break this up into its sergeants’ messes and so on. That all has to be various components. The first thing the Army is carefully managed. Similarly for soldiers who, over getting smarter at is transferring manpower from one time, will be thinned out in order to get the manpower arm or cap badge to another. Certainly in this iteration down from two battalions to one. It is going to be a there are going to be gaps in other areas where very tense and fragile time for the regiment as a infantry soldiers may apply and be selected for a whole. It will need very careful management. different arm or a different service and wear a Turning to your second question of how the MOD has different cap badge, so I think that is fine. dealt with this particular evolution—and having been Secondly, there is the possibility of joining the involved in the last one—it was far worse on the Territorial Army when they leave. That needs to be previous iteration because the decisions were majored on. If you are going to expand the TA, why delegated down to us colonel commandants, not use manpower that is already trained, interested cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

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5 July 2012 Colonel (retd) Timothy Wilson OBE and Major General (retd) Christopher Elliott CVO CBE and wants to do it—and they have a civilian job as would suggest, in some English regiments, but it is of well? That is ideal, frankly. That needs to be a similar nature with the Irish and the Scots. encouraged. As far as those that are leaving are Colonel Wilson: I would agree with that. Certainly concerned, there is certainly a resettlement package within the cavalry regiments there is a very strong which is very good indeed. Welsh identity, there is a very strong Scottish identity, Colonel Wilson: If I may comment on the reserve less so on the Irish and perhaps less so on the English. piece, it is interesting for a Queen’s Dragoon Guard However, there are English elements like, for instance, put in that predicament. There is no Territorial Army the north-east, which is very powerful. I think that is representation for the Royal Armoured Corps within probably related, to a large extent, to unemployment Wales. While he has no difficulty in joining the figures up there as well. Territorial Army, he is unable to join an organisation Major General Elliott: There is also the mining which is part of his arm—the Royal Armoured Corps. fraternity in the north-east. There is a limitation in terms of the depth of reserves for the Royal Armoured Corps and for the Welsh Q41 Nia Griffith: Following on from that, do you Cavalry specifically. think that there will be a significant loss of interest in the armed forces in Wales if there were a loss of the Q38 Chair: Could we end up with a situation where badge name? And the other side of that question, if people are being made redundant in one regiment of there were any loss of any regiment or any battalion, the Army but other regiments are still actively trying will there be fewer opportunities for people from to recruit and are unable to recruit the right number Wales to take part in any of the different types of of people in a different part of the country? We have Army career that might be available at present? heard, for example, that Scotland is short of British Major General Elliott: The short answer to that is no. manpower so could we see a situation where people You are not losing any cap badges per se and I think on the one hand are being made redundant in Tidworth that the figures, as produced—the demographics— while a regiment in Scotland is actively searching show that we will recruit as we are recruiting now. for people? Yes, there may be a slight dip as we go through this Colonel Wilson: I think it unlikely that would be the transition period, but I think we should have no case because what has happened is that the problem at all in manning our Welsh regiments or redundancy programme has looked pan-corps and is whatever cap badge they may be. pretty much cap-badge blind. Therefore, just because you happen to be from one particular regiment or Q42 Nia Griffith: Will people have the full range battalion and that battalion has been cut, you cannot of opportunities? necessarily make the correlation that it means you are Major General Elliott: Yes. going to lose a job. The redundancy programme will Colonel Wilson: Yes. In answer to your first question, be right across the whole corps irrespective of cap inevitably if you look at any form of unit reduction badge. you are going to reduce, over time, your footprint Major General Elliott: Could I answer that specific within the Principality. At the moment, there are point? If you believe the news today, what I sufficient units within the British Army who come understand is going to happen to the Scottish from Wales so that you have a very good reach in battalions within their regiment is that they are going communities, both in north and south Wales. When to take a horizontal cut. Their establishment numbers you start to reduce that, over time, you reduce that will fall so that they will be fully manned. Therefore, reach. Currently we have massive support from the that scenario doesn’t come about. community, from a Queen’s Dragoon Guards’ Chair: It is being gently hinted at that I should get a perspective but I know also from a Royal Welsh move on so we can all hear this statement. perspective. My fear would be, if there were a reduction, that you would inevitably lose the reach Q39 Jonathan Edwards: Approximately what and potentially then the support of the community, percentage of personnel in the Welsh regiments which is very strong at the moment. actually comes from Wales? Major General Elliott: I know time is short. I want Major General Elliott: In our case it is 91%. (with to turn back to the positives, the opportunities and this 9% Foreign and Commonwealth) business of proportionality. I think we have to accept Colonel Wilson: In our case we have 75% from Wales the proportionality of the cuts, but also, please, ladies but, because we recruit in the Welsh border counties and gentlemen, the proportionality of the benefits that as well, we have 5% from foreign and Commonwealth are going to accrue out of this business. I would be and the remaining 20% from England. looking to ensure that your brigade headquarters, 160 (Wales) Brigade in Brecon, has an enhanced role, an Q40 Jonathan Edwards: A number of my friends operational role, in the second echelon, which is a real joined the Army in their younger days and it was a possibility. You must keep that brigade headquarters source of huge pride for them to be joining Welsh for the sake of the Principality and devolution and so regiments. To what extent is that clear identity on. That is really important. replicated in other regiments across the British state? We must maintain our fully sustained Welsh units, and Major General Elliott: It is usually representative of the armoured infantry is key to that. I believe there Wales. When I joined my battalion I was the 12th are opportunities for more units within the Army— serving officer of 12 serving fathers. That’s the way it not just Welsh—to be based in Wales. There is real was in Wales. That is reflected to a lesser degree, I estate in Wales which is not yet full. You have space cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

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5 July 2012 Colonel (retd) Timothy Wilson OBE and Major General (retd) Christopher Elliott CVO CBE and there are opportunities there. You may have some down to 82,000, with 30,000 required in the Territorial redundancies from the Royal Welsh but, equally, there Army, at a time when there is very high may be more employment coming in if you get those unemployment. People in jobs who are thinking of units coming back from Germany between now and going in the Territorial Army will think twice about 2020 into Wales. There is a real opportunity there. doing that. In particular, as we speak, the Government are pushing forward legislation to make it more Q43 Chair: That is something we may well want to difficult for people to go to employment tribunals and pursue. easier for small businesses in particular to shed Major General Elliott: You also have some real workers. There will be fear from employees and opportunities with training areas. You have two major arrogance from employers who will think, “These are ones there at Castlemartin Ranges and Sennybridge. tough times. There’s a queue of people to take this Then you have all the adventure training-type job. If you want to go soldiering, go off.” In that opportunities in Snowdonia, the Brecon Beacons or context, how realistic is it that we are going to get whatever you like. There are real opportunities here 30,000 people to prop up the Army in order to be able which I think you need to seize. to have the flexibility to fight in an uncertain future? Major General Elliott: I sympathise with all that you Q44 Guto Bebb: In view of what we have heard this say. The problem is that we haven’t been exposed to— morning about the potential political influence on the and nor has the Army—the detail of how this is going decision-making process, can you clarify if there are, to be implemented. That is a piece that we are waiting in your view, any sound military reasons for to see: where the money is going to go, what the amalgamating or reducing the number of Welsh training regime is going to be and what changes may regiments? be required in employment law to facilitate this. I Colonel Wilson: I will start with that. Our concern, understand that the US model was looked at, but the from a Royal Armoured Corps perspective, at the very USA is a different beast altogether and they have huge start was that the Army was looking at this in a fairly volumes of manpower. We haven’t, and our industry myopic way. They were potentially looking at a sort and commerce are different. The US model may not of Buggins’s turn, which the Chairman alluded to necessarily be entirely right for our needs so it will earlier, whereby those who did not amalgamate last need to be adapted. I think we have to wait until we time would amalgamate this time, and that was see the detail before we can really comment. potentially going to put the Queen’s Dragoon Guards into the frame. Our concern was that there wasn’t Q46 Jessica Morden: Finally, Professor Dorman sufficient breadth in terms of the decision-making and, described your regiment as being like your family. specifically, there wasn’t enough study of recruiting With your military background—which we obviously statistics. In the case of the Queen’s Dragoon Guards, do not have—can you explain what kind of personal we are the second best recruited regiment in the Royal impact any decisions today will have on those who Armoured Corps—our statistics are 95% of will be displaced? establishment. Major General Elliott: In our case it will ripple across There is also the national piece, and we touched the whole of Wales, particularly in south Wales where earlier on the very close links that we have with the the majority of our manpower comes from. The Principality—in many ways, arguably, much stronger valleys will not be a happy place to be because you than links with the English regiments. I think there are talking about the mums, the fathers, the was a real danger that it was being looked at in a very grandparents and all the rest it. It is going to affect linear way without looking in far broader terms and them hugely, yes. It is not going to be good news. specifically looking at that sort of very critical national dimension. Once you lose the opportunity there and you lose the links with the community, you Q47 Chair: You both heard what Professor Dorman have lost it for ever. said about the Gurkhas. Did you have anything to add Major General Elliott: The only thing I would add is to that? that when you start to look at the limitations that were Major General Elliott: No. He was accurate in what placed on the planners—no Guards/Household units, he said. The only other thing I would add, though, is which we spoke about, no Paras, no Special Forces, that they have a battalion based in Brunei which, as no Gurkhas, no cap badges, limited effect on Scotland he alluded to, is paid for. The situation is that then and so on—the numbers just catch you out. Therefore, there is a battalion in Shorncliffe and they use those the pool from which you are to find that manpower two battalions to rotate the manpower to make sure (to come down to 82,000) is significantly reduced. that they have their war-fighting skills to support the That made it inevitable, in a way, that the Royal Welsh British Army and also their skills in Brunei, in the were in the frame. That is the problem. jungle warfare skills, supporting the Sultan. Chair: Thank you very much. We have not asked these questions in the manner which we had worked Q48 Chair: Have they been as active in the Gulf and out, but would anyone like to catch my eye at the Afghanistan as other British regiments? moment? Major General Elliott: Yes. Colonel Wilson: Yes. But it would be fair to say that Q45 Geraint Davies: I wanted to come back to the there would be concern within the ranks of the British Territorial Army and how realistic you think the Army that some ancient regiments and battalions are strategy being proposed is of reducing the numbers going to be cut. cobber Pack: U PL: COE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:20] Job: 032253 Unit: PG01 Source: /MILES/PKU/INPUT/032253/032253_o001_michelle_Corrected Transcript - FINAL.xml

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5 July 2012 Colonel (retd) Timothy Wilson OBE and Major General (retd) Christopher Elliott CVO CBE

Major General Elliott: Yes, and the Gurkhas know that people are going to want to go towards the that they are going to get some flack. Chamber to find out what is going on. Once again, I Chair: I believe we may have a Business Statement thank you all very much indeed for coming along at in the House first, but I am not absolutely certain. I such short notice. I call this meeting to a close. think we have probably gone through all of this and Thank you. cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [SE] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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Written evidence

Written evidence from Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) (FWR 01) ARMY 2020—BACKGROUND INFORMATION & CRITERIA FOR RESTRUCTURING UNITS I. Introduction & Summary 1. This submission is made at the request of the Welsh Affairs Committee, and provides factual background about the Army 2020 process, the future army structure, and an assessment of the criteria the army and Ministry of Defence have said they will apply in making decisions on specific units. The author is a Research Fellow for Military and Intelligence at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. In this role, he has (among other things) advised the army’s annual force development process which the Army 2020 team drew on significantly in developing their proposals, and worked with the Ministry of Defence on the Future Reserves 2020 study. 2. The Strategic Defence and Security Review, the subsequent three month exercise, and the Future Reserves 2020 study provide the background to Army 2020. The decision to reduce regular army numbers from 101,348 to 82,392 regulars while increasing the active and deployable element of the Territorial Army to 30,000 (and integrating the TA into regular structures) is a very steep reduction. The scale of the reductions means that organisational changes are inevitable. 3. The uncertainty surrounding the future army structure and specific unit decisions, made significantly worse by political delays in announcing the outcomes of Army 2020, is having a negative effect on the morale of servicemen and women. 4. No announcements have been made as to which units will be lost or restructured, either internally or in public, but the government has been at pains to point out that the regimental system will not be abandoned even as units are disbanded or merged. 5. The paramount criteria used to make decisions about unit restructuring relate to the generation of coherent capability. These are: — The need to balance existing regionally-based regimental recruiting demand against demographics which will affect the ability of regiments to recruit individuals in the future. Demographic changes suggest particular challenges in some regions to supply the number of recruits to the infantry that are required. — The need to balance armour and infantry and support proper career development for personnel. Decisions on unit restructuring have sought to maintain balance across the armoured crops and infantry regimental structure and the capability roles within it, to allow best management of personnel and parity of opportunity for the development and advancement of officers and soldiers. 6. Finally, Army 2020 has taken into account previous decisions on unit mergers and deletions, so that those areas and organisations previously affected by restructuring do not perceive that they are constantly and unfairly targeted. 7. It is also worth noting a previous paper commissioned by the then Executive Committee of the Army Board to identify what is best in the regimental system so that it could be preserved during the course of any organisational change. This paper was dated 2004. Since this time, the policy view has been that no ideal structure for the regimental system exists, but that there are characteristics which need to be maintained. This suggests that how the army goes about managing organisational change once decisions about unit mergers and losses are made is as important as the hard-headed analysis of the sustainability/viability of units. This consideration seems to be missing somewhat today; the government and army will need to consider how they will preserve the conditions in which a sense of tradition can be maintained and fostered; how to maintain unit cohesion and identity, when considering the scale of any new organisations; and how to maintain community links to ensure awareness of the army specifically, and Defence generally (which is partly a function of demography). This includes preserving famous names, and ensuring that scale does not void esprit de corps.

II. Introduction: Background to Army 2020 8. Three reviews form the background to Army 2020: the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), published in October 2010; the subsequent “three month review” or exercise, the results of which were announced in July 2011; and the Future Reserves 2020 study, published in July 2011. 9. During the Strategic Defence and Security Review process, the Ministry of Defence recommended a reduction in the size of the regular army from 101,348 to around 82,000 by 2020. The drivers for this recommendation were three-fold: expected political reluctance to commit to operations of the sort undertaken Afghanistan (the Defence Planning Assumptions set out in SDSR stated that the scale of operations undertaken by ground forces would be reduced substantially in future, both for one-off interventions and enduring stabilisation operations); the plans announced previously for a withdrawal of 20,000 army personnel from Germany by 2020, which were dependent on a large reduction in total army numbers to ensure infrastructure cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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costs remained viable; the MoD’s plans for a reduction in the defence budget of 3% by 2014–15, which assumed a reduction in army numbers. However, at a very late stage of the SDSR process, the Prime Minister (and other colleagues) made clear that he would not accept the recommendation that the SDSR should announce such a significant reduction in the size of the regular army—the cuts were seen as too difficult politically, particularly in the context of ongoing operations in Afghanistan. As a result, SDSR announced a reduction in regular army numbers of only 7% (to 95,000 by 2015); this figure contrasted to the cuts announced for the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force of 14 and 17% respectively. Some commentators argued that the decisions in SDSR were land-centric as a result.1 A fairer observation was that, compared to the other services, the army therefore faced greater uncertainty about its future direction of travel as a result of SDSR. 10. Following SDSR, a “three month review” was undertaken. This three month exercise reflected the fact that the reductions and other changes announced in SDSR constituted the Defence contribution to reducing the UK’s deficit. However, these changes were not enough to address the overhang within the Ministry of Defence’s own budget. The three month exercise was undertaken to analyse options for further reductions as a result. The most significant announcement was the decision to reduce the size of the regular army to no less than 84,000 by 2020 (although this was already envisaged in the MoD’s planning for SDSR the previous year). 11. This announcement as a result of the three month exercise was made more acceptable by the outcomes of the Future Reserves 2020 study, also published in July, which concluded that much greater use could be made of the Territorial Army with appropriate additional investment. The government accepted this conclusion, the effect of which was to make the ratio of regular to reserve personnel 70:30 by 2020 (84,000 regulars and 36,000 reserves, to make up an expected total land force number of 120,000). There is risk in this approach, which this evidence does not cover. 12. In addition to these reviews, the planned withdrawal of the majority of service personnel from Afghanistan as the UK ends its combat role in country by 2015 requires that the army

III. Army 2020 13. The final numbers for Army 2020 will in fact be 82,392 regulars and 30,000 reserves, giving a total force number of 112,392. The significant reductions in the size of the regular army will result in structural changes. This led to the formation of a bespoke team, under the leadership of Lieutenant General Nick Carter, which was tasked with undertaking a root and branch analysis to redesign the army in a way that would meet these “novel and demanding parameters”.2 14. General Carter’s team operated under compartmentalised security arrangements. This was partly to ensure political confidence in his study (a number of leaks had damaged relations between individual services and Ministers previously), and partly to allow maximum freedom of thought and manoeuvre without vested interests. However, it should be noted that the lack of awareness amongst the majority of army personnel of the Army 2020 team’s work, and, notably, political delays in announcing the study’s conclusions, have had— and are having—a damaging effect on morale by perpetuating uncertainty. 15. The Army 2020 study will define three core purposes for the future army: contingent capability for defence and deterrence; overseas engagement and capacity building; and UK engagement and homeland resilience. 16. The structure of the future army has been broadly defined by the Chief of the General Staff:3 — A high readiness reaction force to provide the contingency capability for defence and deterrence. This force will provide a modified air assault brigade, and three armoured infantry brigades. At best effort and with strategic warning, these forces will be capable of producing a war fighting division. — In a separate and novel echelon, seven infantry brigades of varying sizes will form an “adaptable force” comprised of paired regular and reserve units. These formations will be configured for UK operations and overseas engagement (the latter will including standing garrison tasks). With warning, they will provide the additional brigade sized elements of an enduring operation as and when they are needed (in other words, they will provide institutional resilience for the army and high readiness reaction force). — “Force troops” will support both the reaction and adaptable forces with artillery, engineer, surveillance and intelligence, logistic, medical and other enablers.

IV. Criteria for Restructuring Units 17. The Secretary of State for Defence has said that “a Regular Army of 82,000 will have a different structure to one of 102,000, and some units will inevitably be lost or will merge”.4 The Chief of the General 1 See, for example, Malcolm Chalmers, Is the UK Defence Budget Crisis Really Over?, RUSI Briefing Paper, October 2011. 2 General Sir Peter Wall, Chief of the General Staff, speech to the RUSI/British Army Annual Land Warfare Conference, 7 June 2012. 3 Ibid. 4 The Right Honourable Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, keynote speech to the RUSI/British Army Annual Land Warfare Conference, 7 June 2012. cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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Staff has said that “this will see the removal of the order of battle, the famous and close knit battalions and regiments from across the Army. It will entail many of the soldiers and officers of the current warrior generation departing the Army on redundancy terms”.5 18. No announcements have been made as to which units will be lost or restructured, either internally or in public, but the government has been at pains to point out that the regimental system will not be abandoned even as units are disbanded or merged. The Secretary of State for Defence has said: I also want this morning to address the issue of continuity. Retaining the regimental system that has served the British Army so well. Protecting the proud links to the past, while making sure the Army reflects the Britain of today and is focussed firmly on the challenges of the future... Of course, a Regular Army of 82,000 will have a different structure to one of 102,000. And some units will inevitably be lost or will merge. We have to change and adapt—and that means letting go as well as building anew. But let me be clear, we value the history and the heritage because they deliver tangible military benefits in the modern British Army. Not because we are slaves to history and heritage, but because they are building blocks for the future... Let me say it clearly: There is no question, as some have suggested, of abandoning the regimental system in the British Army. But that does not mean that we can avoid difficult decisions as the Army gets smaller. And in making those decisions, the military voice must prevail; ensuring that the Army remains the capable and agile force envisaged in the SDSR. Putting the generation of coherent capability first.6 19. A number of criteria have been used in making decisions about unit restructuring, developed in line with the paramount requirement that any structures must be focused on the generation of coherent capability: — Demography (and recruitment). A key criterion is the need to balance existing regionally-based regimental recruiting demand against demographics which will affect the ability of regiments to recruit individuals in the future. Demographic changes suggest particular challenges in some regions to supply the number of recruits to the infantry that are required. Against a background of an increasing UK population overall, it is projected there will be around 12% fewer males by 2020 in the typical infantry recruiting age range. Although all regions face this decline, there is some local variation: in particular, the south and south east of England will see the lowest decline (see Figure 1). A key factor in unit restructuring has there been analysis of recruitment performance, demographic trends and future recruiting needs.

5 General Sir Peter Wall, Chief of the General Staff, speech to the RUSI/British Army Annual Land Warfare Conference, 7 June 2012. 6 The Right Honourable Philip Hammond, Secretary of State for Defence, keynote speech to the RUSI/British Army Annual Land Warfare Conference, 7 June 2012. cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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Figure 1 APPROXIMATE DEMOGRAPHIC LAYOUT OF THE UK BY 2020

Demographic factors have similarly influenced regional basing plans (see figure 2). cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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Figure 2

ARMY 2020 REGIONAL BASING PLAN

— In addition, Army 2020 has also taken into account the need to balance armour and infantry and support proper career development for personnel. Decisions on unit restructuring have sought to maintain balance across the armoured crops and infantry regimental structure and the capability roles within it, to allow best management of personnel and parity of opportunity for the development and advancement of officers and soldiers. — Finally, Army 2020 has taken into account previous decisions on unit mergers and deletions, so that those areas and organisations previously affected by restructuring do not perceive that they are constantly and unfairly targeted.7

V. Previous Criteria used for Restructuring Units

20. In this context, it is also worth noting a previous paper commissioned by the then Executive Committee of the Army Board to identify what is best in the regimental system so that it could be preserved during the 7 In July 2004 and December 2004 a significant restructuring was announced. The infantry strength was to be reduced by four infantry battalions (one battalion from the Scottish Division, one from the area west of the Pennines, one battalion from the Prince of Wales’s Division in the south of England and one from the Parachute Regiment) with the remaining single battalion regiments amalgamating within their division. The armoured strength was to be rebalanced, reducing the strength by seven Challenger 2 squadrons by re-roling one regiment as force reconnaissance. The artillery strength was to be rebalanced, reducing AS-90 battery numbers by six by re-roling a regiment to the light gun and reducing the size of individual Ground Based Air Defence batteries. In relation to the infantry specifically, the Army looked at five options ranging from the status quo to large regiments of five or more battalions. The preferred option was for large single cap-badged regiments of two or more battalions, announced by the Secretary of State for Defence on 21 July 2004. The key statistics which drove decisions were based on manning over the 118 months from January 1995, noting especially which battalions keep their soldiers for longest. Five other areas were also examined: which battalions were the best and the worst manned; which battalions were between a platoon and a company’s manpower short; the divisions’ average under-manning by battalion over the entire period; the ten worst manned infantry battalions; the reality that four out of the six Scottish battalions were in this bottom ten. See Jamie Balfour (then Director of Infantry), “Restructuring the Infantry”, RUSI Journal, February 2005, Vol. 150, No. 1. cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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course of any organisational change. (The flip side was that the worst characteristics should also be identified so they could be removed). This paper, dated 2004, informed the previous restructuring decisions.8

21. The paper concluded that: — Some characteristics essential to the delivery of fighting power, particularly its moral component, do not necessarily depend on the regimental system for their existence, including fighting spirit, unit cohesion, and retention. Studies have shown that these characteristics depend chiefly on good leadership and terms and conditions of service; they do not depend on the existence of homogenous regimental entities. Moreover, the (previous) arms plot system, so intrinsically linked to regiments, resulted in instability for individuals and their families, and poor career management. — Particular traditions and uniforms to which personnel (serving or retired) are attached have no intrinsic right to a permanent place unless they serve a specific and current purpose; indeed, these traditions and identities have not been constant over time and need to be created or recreated constantly—David French’s notable history of the regimental system found that “regimental loyalties were not a primordial force—regimental authorities had to create them and in the late 19th century they manufactured new traditions with gusto”.9 However, this judgement was qualified by the fact that one of the key strengths of the regimental system is the sense of belonging that it engenders, which provides a powerful sense of mutual support, comradeship, and obligation to others in the “regimental family”. This provides encouragement and moral strength, and is aided by the fact that the regimental system provides continuity by providing individuals with the opportunity to keep returning to the regiments or corps in which they began service. So a key factor to consider when making changes to organisational structure, is that the conditions in which a sense of tradition can be fostered and maintained must be preserved. — The regimental system gives “essential depth and breadth” to the character of the army as a whole; although each regiment operates within the context of common doctrine, operating procedures and administrative rules, the variety of culture and style means they nonetheless have different ways of tackling tasks. — Strong regional connections are beneficial because they provide the army with a greater opportunity to engage the local community to good effect, which is particularly important given that the army is less seen in the community than it used to be, and public awareness of defence remains in decline. While regional links for recruiting from particular areas is not essential to unit fighting power—and, indeed, most regiments have never recruited exclusively from regimental areas, either now or in the past—a regional focus can provide cohesion, and possibly a focussed recruitment effort. The paper therefore states that “as a matter of principle regional connections should be maintained, enhanced and applied as far as possible throughout the Army. Even in those regiments or corps which are bound together by some expertise or specialisation, attempts should be made to man units by regional groupings. As a result, not only will there be cohesion within the unit but the recruiting effort will be focussed and sharp, with greater opportunity to engage the local community to good effect”.10 — Change to the regimental system should not consign all tradition to the dustbin. Previous amalgamations have “almost wantonly consigned to oblivion the very names that meant something to ill-informed national and international communities. In the process [the army] finds it even harder to retain the interest and support of that community. If there are to be further reductions in the numbers of individual regiments, the remaining names must at all costs be selected from the remaining famous names”. — Finally, in relation to the Esprit de Corps that the regimental system has fostered throughout its existence (even though that system has adapted continuously), the paper noted that organisational change should follow the principle that: the larger the corps, the less the esprit.

22. There is significant overlap between the criteria that were used in 2004, and those being used as part of Army 2020, but the 2004 paper implies that how the army goes about managing organisational change once decisions about unit mergers and losses are made is as important as the hard-headed analysis of the sustainability/viability of units. This consideration seems to be missing somewhat today; the government and army will need to consider how they will preserve the conditions in which a sense of tradition can be maintained and fostered; how to maintain unit cohesion and identity, when considering the scale of any new organisations; and how to maintain community links to ensure awareness of the army specifically, and Defence generally (which is partly a function of demography). This includes preserving famous names, and ensuring that scale does not void esprit de corps. 8 The paper was published by the then Adjutant General. See Alistair Irwin, “What is Best in the Regimental System?”, RUSI Journal, October 2004, Vol. 149, No. 5. 9 See David French, Military Identities: The Regimental System, the British Army, and the British People c. 1870–2000 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005). 10 A key factor which seems to have been missed is the important welfare role (and local reach for this purpose) that the regimental system has, including for veterans. cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

Ev 16 Welsh Affairs Committee: Evidence

VI. Conclusion 23. Organisational restructuring, including the merger and loss of certain units, is inevitable as a result of the scale of reductions the regular army has to make. The criteria used to make decisions about particular units is fairly hard-headed and analytical, focusing on future demographic and recruitment trends, and the need to ensure a balanced army with opportunities for career development in a more flexible force. That said, Army 2020 has taken into account previous decisions on unit mergers and deletions, so that those areas and organisations previously affected by restructuring do not perceive that they are constantly and unfairly targeted. 24. How the army goes about managing organisational change once decisions about unit mergers and losses are made is as important as the hard-headed analysis of the sustainability/viability of units. The government and army will need to consider how they will preserve the conditions in which a sense of tradition can be maintained and fostered; how to maintain unit cohesion and identity, when considering the scale of any new organisations; and how to maintain community links to ensure awareness of the army specifically, and Defence generally (which is partly a function of demography). This includes preserving famous names, and ensuring that scale does not void esprit de corps. The effect of any changes on the welfare function provided by the regimental system, including for veterans, also needs to be taken into account. June 2012

Written evidence from Michael Propert Lewis (FWR 02) I am writing to you as a fellow Welshman in your capacity as the Chair of the House of Commons Committees on Welsh Affairs. I am well aware that when reorganisation of any part of the Armed Forces is set in motion Members of Parliament are subject to special pleading but I believe that the regiment in which I served for twelve years, 1st The Queen’s Dragoon Guards (QDG), has a strong case to remain in its present form for the following reasons: Objectively: Wales used to have 32 Regiments, it now has only 3. To lose 1 of the remaining regiments would equate to a 33% reduction. Each regiment forms a distinct part of the Army, Armour, Guards and Line Infantry. This enables a Welshman to join any of the three teeth arms alongside fellow Welshman, a significant plus for recruitment. I would argue that the Regimental system which enables those who share a national heritage to serve together is the main reason why Britain has amongst the best soldiers in the world. This, I suggest, together with its excellent track record should be the benchmark for retaining the QDG, not the precedent method which selects the regiment that has not been amalgamated for the longest time—a method of selection that is totally illogical and symptomatic of bureaucracy. Subjectively: The QDG was founded in 1685 and is in 2012 a large family, bonded not only by the closeness of Welsh culture and tradition but by comradeship formed in peace and war. The regiment is not only one of the few remaining institutional employers in Wales but is in its wider context a substantial community, uniting many disparate individuals in charitable work, employment and of course, camaraderie. In addition it will be very damaging to the Welsh economy and community to have significant military redundancies at this time. It could also be seen as insulting to Welsh people to reward loyalty and service by redundancies and cuts seemingly despite their nationalism being sympathetic to the concept of a United Kingdom rather than confrontational. Having served in the only Welsh cavalry regiment, 1st The Queen’s Dragoon Guards, I of course wish it to survive and I hope that my arguments in support of that aim have convinced you to persuade those responsible for making the final decision to retain the QDG as it presently is. June 2012

Written evidence from Antoinette Sandbach AM (FWR 03) I am writing to ask that that the content of this letter is noted and considered by the Welsh Affairs Select Committee during its meeting on Thursday 5 July 2012 at which evidence will be taken on the future of Welsh regiments. As a regional Assembly Member, my constituency spans a vast area of North Wales, from Holyhead to Wrexham. Many of my constituents have expressed to me their grave concern at the prospect of the loss or amalgamation of the 1st the Queens Dragoon Guards (QDG). It is clear to me that there is a great deal of strength of support for the QDG, and that immense pride exists for the local units and their glorious histories. I would like to make the following specific points in support of the continued existence of the QDG: (a) It supports and maintains the strong role Wales has to play within the UK. The survival of the QDG is of national importance to the people of Wales and to those people who believe in the strength of the union of the UK. (b) Wales only has three recognised Welsh cap badges in the British Army; 1st The Queen’s Dragoon Guards, 1Bn The Welsh Guards, and The Royal Welsh. This is compared with eight cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [O] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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Scottish and 18 English cap badges. If further cuts to Welsh regiments do go ahead, there is a very real danger that the Regular Army will become regarded by many in Wales as an English Army.

(c) The regiment is one of the few remaining institutional employers in Wales. It is also a substantial community uniting many people in charitable work, employment and of course all the consequences of being serving soldiers with a Regimental identify.

(d) The Welsh Cavalry is fully manned. The Welsh Cavalry is fully supported by the communities it recruits from and, in terms of manpower, is consistently at full strength. QDG currently has 95% manning, second highest in the RAC and is significant when compared with the other armoured regiments targeted for amalgamation who have significantly lower manning levels and large numbers of commonwealth soldiers making up the shortfall.

I would therefore urge the Welsh Affairs Select Committee to make the strongest representations to the Secretary of State for Defence and the Minister of State for the Armed Forces to recognise the importance and significance of the QDG to the people of Wales, the respect in which it is held in the wider union of the United Kingdom and to ensure its continued existence for the foreseeable future. July 2012

Letter from the Chair, Welsh Affairs Select Committee to the Secretary of State for Defence (FWR 04)

On behalf of the Welsh Affairs Committee I am writing in response to the statement on Army 2020 given to the House on Thursday 5 July. You will be aware that my Committee recently took evidence on the future of the Welsh regiments in the context of Army 2020.

We welcome the Ministry of Defence’s decision to keep the 1st The Queen’s Dragoon Guards. The Welsh Cavalry has a long and proud tradition as one of the most senior British frontline forces. It has just returned from operations in Afghanistan, where its units operated as forward reconnaissance, and the announcement will provide stability and continuity to the soldiers of the cavalry regiment.

We are however extremely disappointed in the decision to lose the 2nd Battalion of the Royal Welsh. In evidence to the Committee on this issue, an independent defence expert told us that, based on proportionality, cost and recruitment considerations, it would be more advisable to cut several battalions of the Scottish regiments and the Gurkhas. We heard that 98% of the Royal Welsh is drawn from within Wales, and in many families service to the regiment has continued for many generations. We believe that the impact on families and communities across Wales, as well as on morale in the regiments more widely, will be enormous.

We are concerned that the decision to cut a Welsh battalion may be at least partly politically motivated. Scottish regiments have found it difficult to recruit in recent years, and the decision to maintain all five Scottish infantry regiments, albeit with one performing ceremonial duties, suggests preferential treatment. We seek assurances that this is not the case.

We are also concerned that the statement regarding the loss of 2nd Battalion Royal Welsh did not provide greater clarity for the serving men and women. We seek clarification on how many of them will be “absorbed” into the 1st Battalion and how many will be made redundant. In a time of high unemployment, all possible assistance must be provided to enable former servicemen and women to seek employment after the armed forces. They currently face a great deal of uncertainty regarding their future.

Wales has traditionally had a strong link to the armed forces. We hope that your decision will not affect this in the future. The withdrawal of forces from Germany by 2020 provides an opportunity to base many of those soldiers in Wales. Wales also provides terrain suitable for training opportunities, such as Snowdon and the Brecon Beacons. We hope that every opportunity will be made to maintain and expand the military presence in Wales and the resultant economic impact that that can bring.

We would be grateful if you could respond to us in respect of the concerns raised in this letter. We will continue to monitor the situation to ensure that Welsh soldiers are given every possible support during these changes to the armed forces. July 2012 cobber Pack: U PL: CWE1 [E] Processed: [01-08-2013 08:27] Job: 032253 Unit: PG02

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Written evidence from the Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence (FWR 04A) Thank you for your letter of 11 July, reflecting the concerns of the Welsh Affairs Committee about the outcome of the Army’s review of its future structure, which I announced on 5 July. I would like to assure you that I am aware of the significant contribution made to all of our Armed Services by the people of Wales, both now and in the past. Wales has a long and glorious military tradition which I am confident will be preserved and maintained. Army 2020 is a plan which the Army has designed and on which I have taken the advice of the Chief of the General staff and his team. As I said on 5 July, in selecting infantry battalions for withdrawal, the Army focused on the major recruiting challenges it faces in the infantry. It looked carefully at recruiting performance; at recruiting catchment areas; and at demographic projections for the age cohort from which infantry recruits are drawn. It also considered regional and national affiliations, the merger and disbandment history of individual battalions, and existing commitments of battalions to future operations. Furthermore, the Army decided not to withdraw more than one battalion in any one Regiment and to preserve cap-badges. The overriding objective has been to arrive at a solution that those currently serving in the Army will see as fair and equitable. While I understand that the decisions which have been taken are difficult and challenging to those affected, I am afraid that taking the above factors into account, including manning performance over the last 10 years, the Royal Welsh was identified as one of the regiments from which a battalion ought to be withdrawn. As I also said to you during the debate following my announcement on 5 July, the reason we have not taken out one of the battalions of the Royal Gurkha Rifles is that we have a partnership arrangement with the Sultanate of Brunei, under which one of those battalions is stationed on rotation in Brunei. That arrangement works extremely well for the British Army, and it can be sustained only with two separate Gurkha battalions. However, it should be noted that the Brigade of Gurkhas are not immune from the ongoing changes within the British Army since following a change to their terms of service, the Brigade has become overmanned. As a result of this, a substantial number of Gurkhas have been selected for redundancy in the first two tranches of the Army Redundancy Programme. Turning to your point about the absorption of personnel into the 1st Battalion, I would like to reassure you that an individual in a unit which is being withdrawn or merged is no more or less likely than any other individual with similar skills and service record to be selected for future redundancy. When units are withdrawn from the Army’s order of battle their personnel will be reassigned to other units, where possible within the same regiment, and I expect this to be the case for those personnel serving with the 2nd Battalion of the Royal Welsh. As you rightly point out in your letter, Wales provides some of the Army’s best training areas which are used extensively by all three of our Armed Services. The Defence Infrastructure Organisation are leading work on the Department’s footprint strategy in order to deliver a Defence estate of the right size and shape that is sustainable and delivers the most cost effective approach to future force basing. Initial decisions are expected to be made later this year and until then it is too early to say where specific formations and units will be based across the UK by 2020. However, I can assure you that the Army intends maintaining a significant presence across the UK. August 2012

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