Cognitive Biases in Crowdsourcing
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Ambiguity Aversion in Qualitative Contexts: a Vignette Study
Ambiguity aversion in qualitative contexts: A vignette study Joshua P. White Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences University of Melbourne Andrew Perfors Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences University of Melbourne Abstract Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involv- ing contrived monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion is evident outside of such contexts is largely unknown, particularly in those contexts which cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether ambiguity aversion occurs in a variety of different qualitative domains, such as work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study and health. We presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity. In a separate study we asked participants for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by gain/loss direction but not by the prior probability estimates (with the inter- esting exception of the classic Ellsberg ‘urn’ scenario). Our results suggest that ambiguity aversion occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts, but to different degrees, and may not be generally driven by unfavourable prior probability estimates of ambiguous events. Corresponding Author: Joshua P. White ([email protected]) AMBIGUITY AVERSION IN QUALITATIVE CONTEXTS: A VIGNETTE STUDY 2 Introduction The world is replete with the unknown, yet people generally prefer some types of ‘unknown’ to others. Here, an important distinction exists between risk and uncertainty. As defined by Knight (1921), risk is a measurable lack of certainty that can be represented by numerical probabilities (e.g., “there is a 50% chance that it will rain tomorrow”), while ambiguity is an unmeasurable lack of certainty (e.g., “there is an unknown probability that it will rain tomorrow”). -
A Task-Based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization
A Task-based Taxonomy of Cognitive Biases for Information Visualization Evanthia Dimara, Steven Franconeri, Catherine Plaisant, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Pierre Dragicevic Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display 2 Three kinds of limitations The Computer The Display The Human 3 Three kinds of limitations: humans • Human vision ️ has limitations • Human reasoning 易 has limitations The Human 4 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation 5 ️Perceptual bias Magnitude estimation Color perception 6 易 Cognitive bias Behaviors when humans consistently behave irrationally Pohl’s criteria distilled: • Are predictable and consistent • People are unaware they’re doing them • Are not misunderstandings 7 Ambiguity effect, Anchoring or focalism, Anthropocentric thinking, Anthropomorphism or personification, Attentional bias, Attribute substitution, Automation bias, Availability heuristic, Availability cascade, Backfire effect, Bandwagon effect, Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect, Belief bias, Ben Franklin effect, Berkson's paradox, Bias blind spot, Choice-supportive bias, Clustering illusion, Compassion fade, Confirmation bias, Congruence bias, Conjunction fallacy, Conservatism (belief revision), Continued influence effect, Contrast effect, Courtesy bias, Curse of knowledge, Declinism, Decoy effect, Default effect, Denomination effect, Disposition effect, Distinction bias, Dread aversion, Dunning–Kruger effect, Duration neglect, Empathy gap, End-of-history illusion, Endowment effect, Exaggerated expectation, Experimenter's or expectation bias, -
MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES in RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR
MITIGATING COGNITIVE BIASES IN RISK IDENTIFICATION: Practitioner Checklist for the AEROSPACE SECTOR Debra L. Emmons, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani, and Curtis E. Larsen This research contributes an operational checklist for mitigating cogni- tive biases in the aerospace sector risk management process. The Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist includes steps for grounding the risk identification and evaluation activities in past project experiences through historical data, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating multiple methods and perspectives to guard against optimism and a singular project instantiation-focused view. The authors developed a survey to elicit subject matter expert judgment on the value of the check- list to support its use in government and industry as a risk management tool. The survey also provided insights on bias mitigation strategies and lessons learned. This checklist addresses the deficiency in the literature in providing operational steps for the practitioner to recognize and implement strategies for bias reduction in risk management in the aerospace sector. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22594/dau.16-770.25.01 Keywords: Risk Management, Optimism Bias, Planning Fallacy, Cognitive Bias Reduction Mitigating Cognitive Biases in Risk Identification http://www.dau.mil January 2018 This article and its accompanying research contribute an operational FIGURE 1. RESEARCH APPROACH Risk Identification and Evaluation Bias Reduction Checklist for cognitive bias mitigation in risk management for the aerospace sector. The checklist Cognitive Biases & Bias described herein offers a practical and implementable project management Enabling framework to help reduce biases in the aerospace sector and redress the Conditions cognitive limitations in the risk identification and analysis process. -
Floor Debate March 17, 2016
Transcript Prepared By the Clerk of the Legislature Transcriber's Office Floor Debate March 17, 2016 [LB83 LB465 LB516 LB586 LB673 LB707 LB709 LB717 LB722A LB754 LB754A LB794 LB803 LB817 LB835 LB843 LB867A LB867 LB894 LB900 LB906 LB910 LB934 LB934A LB958 LB959 LB975 LB977 LB1009 LB1033 LB1056 LB1081 LB1082A LB1082 LB1093 LB1098A LB1105A LB1109 LR378CA LR492 LR493 LR494] PRESIDENT FOLEY PRESIDING PRESIDENT FOLEY: GOOD MORNING, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. WELCOME TO THE GEORGE W. NORRIS LEGISLATIVE CHAMBER FOR THE FORTY-FOURTH DAY OF THE ONE HUNDRED FOURTH LEGISLATURE, SECOND SESSION. OUR CHAPLAIN FOR TODAY IS PASTOR MIKE WING OF THE GRACE COMMUNITY BIBLE CHURCH IN NORTH PLATTE, NEBRASKA, SENATOR GROENE'S DISTRICT. PLEASE RISE. PASTOR WING: (PRAYER OFFERED.) PRESIDENT FOLEY: THANK YOU, PASTOR WING. I CALL TO ORDER THE FORTY- FOURTH DAY OF THE ONE HUNDRED FOURTH LEGISLATURE, SECOND SESSION. SENATORS, PLEASE RECORD YOUR PRESENCE. ROLL CALL. MR. CLERK. PLEASE RECORD. CLERK: I HAVE A QUORUM PRESENT, MR. PRESIDENT. PRESIDENT FOLEY: THANK YOU, MR. CLERK. ARE THERE ANY CORRECTIONS TO THE JOURNAL? CLERK: I HAVE NO CORRECTIONS. PRESIDENT FOLEY: THANK YOU, MR. CLERK. ARE THERE ANY MESSAGES, REPORTS OR ANNOUNCEMENTS? CLERK: NEW RESOLUTION, SENATOR BURKE HARR OFFERS LR492, MR. PRESIDENT. THAT WILL BE LAID OVER. ATTORNEY GENERAL OPINION, SENATOR KOLTERMAN, TO BE INSERTED IN THE JOURNAL (RE LB975). THAT'S ALL THAT I HAVE. (LEGISLATIVE JOURNAL PAGES 1019-1037.) [LR492 LB975] 1 Transcript Prepared By the Clerk of the Legislature Transcriber's Office Floor Debate March 17, 2016 PRESIDENT FOLEY: THANK YOU, MR. CLERK. (VISITORS INTRODUCED.) MR. CLERK, WE'LL NOW PROCEED TO THE FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA, LEGISLATIVE CONFIRMATION REPORTS. -
Exploring the Perception of Nationalism in the United States and Saudi Arabia Reem Mohammed Alhethail Eastern Washington University
Eastern Washington University EWU Digital Commons EWU Masters Thesis Collection Student Research and Creative Works 2015 Exploring the perception of nationalism in the United States and Saudi Arabia Reem Mohammed Alhethail Eastern Washington University Follow this and additional works at: http://dc.ewu.edu/theses Part of the Islamic World and Near East History Commons, and the United States History Commons Recommended Citation Alhethail, Reem Mohammed, "Exploring the perception of nationalism in the United States and Saudi Arabia" (2015). EWU Masters Thesis Collection. 330. http://dc.ewu.edu/theses/330 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Research and Creative Works at EWU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in EWU Masters Thesis Collection by an authorized administrator of EWU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. EXPLORING THE PERCEPTION OF NATIONALISM IN THE UNITED STATES AND SAUDI ARABIA A Thesis Presented To Eastern Washington University Cheney, WA In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree Master of Arts in History By Reem Mohammed Alhethail Fall 2015 ii THESIS OF REEM MOHAMMED ALHETHAIL APPROVED BY DATE ROBERT SAUDERS, GRADUATE STUDY COMMITTEE DATE MICHAEL CONLIN, GRADUATE STUDY COMMITTEE DATE CHADRON HAZELBAKER, GRADUATE STUDY COMMITTEE iii MASTER’S THESIS In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master’s degree at Eastern Washington University, I agree that (your library) shall make copies freely available for inspection. I further agree that copying of this project in whole or in part is allowable only for scholarly purposes. -
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Proceedings of the Fifteenth International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2021) Uncovering Coordinated Networks on Social Media: Methods and Case Studies Diogo Pacheco,∗1,2 Pik-Mai Hui,∗1 Christopher Torres-Lugo,∗1 Bao Tran Truong,1 Alessandro Flammini,1 Filippo Menczer1 1Observatory on Social Media, Indiana University Bloomington, USA 2Department of Computer Science, University of Exeter, UK [email protected],fhuip,torresch,baotruon,aflammin,fi[email protected] Abstract develop software to impersonate users and hide the iden- tity of those who control these social bots — whether they Coordinated campaigns are used to influence and manipulate are fraudsters pushing spam, political operatives amplifying social media platforms and their users, a critical challenge to misleading narratives, or nation-states waging online war- the free exchange of information online. Here we introduce a general, unsupervised network-based methodology to un- fare (Ferrara et al. 2016). Cognitive and social biases make cover groups of accounts that are likely coordinated. The pro- us even more vulnerable to manipulation by social bots: posed method constructs coordination networks based on ar- limited attention facilitates the spread of unchecked claims, bitrary behavioral traces shared among accounts. We present confirmation bias makes us disregard facts, group-think five case studies of influence campaigns, four of which in the and echo chambers distort perceptions of norms, and the diverse contexts of U.S. elections, Hong Kong protests, the bandwagon effect makes us pay attention to bot-amplified Syrian civil war, and cryptocurrency manipulation. In each memes (Weng et al. 2012; Hills 2019; Ciampaglia et al. -
Communication Science to the Public
David M. Berube North Carolina State University ▪ HOW WE COMMUNICATE. In The Age of American Unreason, Jacoby posited that it trickled down from the top, fueled by faux-populist politicians striving to make themselves sound approachable rather than smart. (Jacoby, 2008). EX: The average length of a sound bite by a presidential candidate in 1968 was 42.3 seconds. Two decades later, it was 9.8 seconds. Today, it’s just a touch over seven seconds and well on its way to being supplanted by 140/280- character Twitter bursts. ▪ DATA FRAMING. ▪ When asked if they truly believe what scientists tell them, NEW ANTI- only 36 percent of respondents said yes. Just 12 percent expressed strong confidence in the press to accurately INTELLECTUALISM: report scientific findings. ▪ ROLE OF THE PUBLIC. A study by two Princeton University researchers, Martin TRENDS Gilens and Benjamin Page, released Fall 2014, tracked 1,800 U.S. policy changes between 1981 and 2002, and compared the outcome with the expressed preferences of median- income Americans, the affluent, business interests and powerful lobbies. They concluded that average citizens “have little or no independent influence” on policy in the U.S., while the rich and their hired mouthpieces routinely get their way. “The majority does not rule,” they wrote. ▪ Anti-intellectualism and suspicion (trends). ▪ Trump world – outsiders/insiders. ▪ Erasing/re-writing history – damnatio memoriae. ▪ False news. ▪ Infoxication (CC) and infobesity. ▪ Aggregators and managed reality. ▪ Affirmation and confirmation bias. ▪ Negotiating reality. ▪ New tribalism is mostly ideational not political. ▪ Unspoken – guns, birth control, sexual harassment, race… “The amount of technical information is doubling every two years. -
Cognitive Biases in Software Engineering: a Systematic Mapping Study
Cognitive Biases in Software Engineering: A Systematic Mapping Study Rahul Mohanani, Iflaah Salman, Burak Turhan, Member, IEEE, Pilar Rodriguez and Paul Ralph Abstract—One source of software project challenges and failures is the systematic errors introduced by human cognitive biases. Although extensively explored in cognitive psychology, investigations concerning cognitive biases have only recently gained popularity in software engineering research. This paper therefore systematically maps, aggregates and synthesizes the literature on cognitive biases in software engineering to generate a comprehensive body of knowledge, understand state of the art research and provide guidelines for future research and practise. Focusing on bias antecedents, effects and mitigation techniques, we identified 65 articles (published between 1990 and 2016), which investigate 37 cognitive biases. Despite strong and increasing interest, the results reveal a scarcity of research on mitigation techniques and poor theoretical foundations in understanding and interpreting cognitive biases. Although bias-related research has generated many new insights in the software engineering community, specific bias mitigation techniques are still needed for software professionals to overcome the deleterious effects of cognitive biases on their work. Index Terms—Antecedents of cognitive bias. cognitive bias. debiasing, effects of cognitive bias. software engineering, systematic mapping. 1 INTRODUCTION OGNITIVE biases are systematic deviations from op- knowledge. No analogous review of SE research exists. The timal reasoning [1], [2]. In other words, they are re- purpose of this study is therefore as follows: curring errors in thinking, or patterns of bad judgment Purpose: to review, summarize and synthesize the current observable in different people and contexts. A well-known state of software engineering research involving cognitive example is confirmation bias—the tendency to pay more at- biases. -
Social Media and Credibility Indicator: the Effects of Bandwagon and Identity Cues Within Online Health and Risk Contexts
University of Kentucky UKnowledge Theses and Dissertations--Communication Communication 2016 Social Media And Credibility Indicator: The Effects Of Bandwagon And Identity Cues Within Online Health And Risk Contexts Xialing Lin University of Kentucky, [email protected] Digital Object Identifier: http://dx.doi.org/10.13023/ETD.2016.059 Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Lin, Xialing, "Social Media And Credibility Indicator: The Effects Of Bandwagon And Identity Cues Within Online Health And Risk Contexts" (2016). Theses and Dissertations--Communication. 46. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/comm_etds/46 This Doctoral Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Communication at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations--Communication by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. STUDENT AGREEMENT: I represent that my thesis or dissertation and abstract are my original work. Proper attribution has been given to all outside sources. I understand that I am solely responsible for obtaining any needed copyright permissions. I have obtained needed written permission statement(s) from the owner(s) of each third-party copyrighted matter to be included in my work, allowing electronic distribution (if such use is not permitted by the fair use doctrine) which will be submitted to UKnowledge as Additional File. I hereby grant to The University of Kentucky and its agents the irrevocable, non-exclusive, and royalty-free license to archive and make accessible my work in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. -
Bandwagon Effect: Lesson Plan
Bandwagon Effect: Hop On! Bandwagon Effect: Lesson Plan Topic The bandwagon effect is the psychological phenomenon in which an individual does something because others, particularly a large group of others, are doing it. This action or behavior is done regardless of whether it aligns with the individual’s personal belief or even factual evidence. Possible subjects/classes Time needed ● Psychology ● English 30-45 minutes ● Economics/Marketing ● Politics Video link: https://academy4sc.org/topic/bandwagon-effect-hop-on/ Objective: What will students know/be able to do at the end of class? By the end of this lesson, students will be able to ● Define the bandwagon effect. ● Explain how and why the bandwagon effect functions in every social field. ● Combat the bandwagon effect in their daily lives. Key Concepts & Vocabulary Conformity, bandwagaon Materials Needed A popular song and device to play music for the introductory activity Before you watch If you can get student confidants in on your plan, play popular, well-known music in your classroom. Encourage students to sing along. You’ll need student confidants because students are highly unlikely to actually sing in your classroom without outside motivation. Your confidants should be able to attract students not in on the plan to join in. Bandwagon Effect: Hop On! If you fail to get students to sing, whether your confidants did not attract students or you decided against using confidants, this can also be learning experience. Regardless of the results, question students about what just happened. Why did no one or few people sing at the beginning? Encourage students to think beyond simple answers like “I didn’t want to” or “I didn’t know the lyrics” to deeper responses. -
Chicago Unbound Philippic.Com
University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Journal Articles Faculty Scholarship 2002 Philippic.com Cass R. Sunstein Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Cass R. Sunstein, "Philippic.com ," 90 California Law Review 611 (2002). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal Articles by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Review Essay Philippic.corn REPUBLIC.COM By Cass Sunstein Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2001. Pp. 224. $19.95 cloth. Reviewed by Dan Hunterf A recent trend in so-called "second generation" legal commentary about the Internet suggests that, though it is an unparalleledcommunica- tion medium and a means of engaging in global e-commerce, it is not an unmitigatedforce for good. Instead,the Net poses afundamental danger to democracy. This trend takes shape in works by well-known cyberlaw theo- rists like Lawrence Lessig, Andrew Shapiro, and Neil Weinstock Netanel, but the most recent and most troubling criticism lies in Professor Cass Sunstein 's Republic.com. In this book, Professor Sunstein argues that perfectfiltering of infor- mation on the Internet will lead to a fractured communications environ- ment. He suggests that this fracturing will lead to group polarization, cascades of false information, and a concomitant rise in extremism. Governmental regulation of the Internet to reduce these features is there- fore warranted,and desirable.He suggests that the appropriateregulatory responses should include setting up or supportingpublic environmentsfor deliberation and debate on the Net, along with a series of disclosure and "must-carry" rules. -
11 Social Influence
9781405124003_4_011.qxd 10/31/07 3:09 PM Page 216 Social Influence 11 Miles Hewstone and Robin Martin KEY CONCEPTS autokinetic effect compliance consistency conversion deindividuation door-in-the-face technique evaluation apprehension foot-in-the-door technique group polarization groupthink informational influence lowballing technique majority influence (conformity) minority influence (innovation) norms normative influence obedience to authority referent informational influence self-categorization theory social comparison social facilitation social influence whistleblowing 9781405124003_4_011.qxd 10/31/07 3:09 PM Page 217 CHAPTER OUTLINE This chapter considers two main types of social influence, both of which can be understood in terms of fundamental motives. First, we discuss ‘incidental’ social influence, where people are influenced by the presence or implied presence of others, although there has been no explicit attempt to influence them. We consider the impact of the mere presence of other people on task performance, and the impact of social norms. In the second part of the chapter, we ask why people succumb to social influence, highlighting types of social influence and motives underlying influence on the part of the target of influence. In the third part of the chapter, we turn to ‘deliberate’ social influence. We introduce theory and research on compliance, the influence of numerical majorities and minorities, group decision-making and obedience. Throughout we will see that social influence is an ambivalent concept. On the one hand, it is the glue of society: it makes things work, and society would be utterly chaotic without it. But on the other hand it can be a dark force, underlying some of the most extreme, even immoral, forms of human social behaviour.