Regional VIEW Winchester | Basingstoke | Hungerford 2013 2 MARKET UPDATE A MIXED YEAR IN UK PROPERTY It’s been a year of conflicting fortunes in the UK property market. Both economic and political factors have been at play and, depending on the location and the price bracket, some quite different trends are emerging. They include strong price growth in the higher reaches of the prime property market in and around London, and a drop in sales and value among homes affected by this year’s change in stamp duty rates. Any review of 2012 needs to start with a look at the broader economic picture. Disappointing news towards the end of 2012 saw the IMF dramatically downgrade its forecasts for the UK and predict that the economy would shrink by 0.4%. This was offset, though, by IMF expectations of 1.1% growth for 2013. Any sense of optimism has remained cautious, however, and this is being reflected in both the current performance of the UK residential market and its outlook for the year ahead. London v. the rest of the UK The 7% stamp duty effect Data from Nationwide shows that the market as a whole In March 2012, the rate of stamp duty payable on £2m+ is continuing to stall, with average property prices homes rose from 5% to 7%. The effect was dramatic and across the UK falling by 1.4% during the first three immediate. In the months following the Budget, Knight quarters of 2012. For homes up to £2m, the average Frank’s Residential Review recorded a fall of 20% in the drop was far greater at 4.3%. number of transactions involving prime London properties costing being £2m and £10m. This also Central London, though, is still bucking trends and precipitated a significant drop in the price of homes setting new records month on month. Over the same worth between £2m and £3m, with an average fall of period, prime properties in the capital have seen rises 7%. Such a drop in activity and values will have of around 10% as demand remains particularly strong in inevitably impacted stamp duty receipts, raising the the city’s most exclusive neighbourhoods. A key and question of how many new property taxes can be continuing factor in that growth is the influx of introduced before any net gain for the Treasury is international buyers who see the city as a safe haven wiped out. for their capital. The prime markets outside London are facing more The consensus seems to challenges and we have seen drops approaching 5% in the rest of England and Wales, and slightly smaller falls be that this mixed bag at around 3% in Scotland. Yet even outside London some hotspots are bucking the downward trend. Prices of news will prevail for in and around Oxford, for example, are up 2.3% on the some time to come; year, while prices around Guildford have risen 2%. And country homes in the £4m+ bracket have seen there is likely to be sustained growth. These rises are partly fuelled by the little change in the UK increase in buyers from London who are looking to take advantage of record high prices by selling and moving housing market until to the country. confidence in the economic recovery improves. MARKET UPDATE 3 The demise of the ‘mansion tax’ Our country 2012 was also the year when the mooted mansion tax was roundly rejected by the Chancellor. Originally a Lib department Dem proposal, this policy would have seen owners of properties worth more than £2m paying an annual 1% levy. George Osborne’s view is that such a tax would drive enterprise and investment abroad, as it is Knight Frank’s Country Department works with believed to have done in France. Hot on the heels of the our regional offices to sell prime country property rise in stamp duty, it could also have had a dramatic throughout the whole of the UK. Based at our effect on the market at £2m to £5m level. What seems global headquarters on Baker Street in London, certain is that, with the mansion tax now off the table, the team is 32 strong and is the largest Country the ongoing debate about ‘taxing the wealthy’ is Department of all the national agents. destined to go off in a new direction. Our approach, advice and guidance come from Activity in the housebuilding and the housing market, extensive experience, gained over many years or rather the lack of it, has also been high on the and we pride ourselves on giving the highest political agenda this year. The Lib Dems, for example, standard of service. This is part of what makes floated a plan to stimulate a sluggish market that Knight Frank different and ensures our clients involved using parents’ pension pots to secure want to use us again. mortgage deals for their children, but this received a As the residential market becomes increasingly lukewarm reception. Labour, meanwhile, proposed global, international exposure is paramount. using the receipts from the 4G mobile sale to re-introduce With 244 offices across 43 countries, we have a the stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers and to build truly global reach and receive interest from a 100,000 affordable homes. The debates on the best wide range of buyers. way forward continue to rage and definitive plans have yet to be announced. In 2011, Knight Frank sold property to 65 different nationalities of buyers. The fact that we build relationships with each of our clients and The UK rental market applicants means that, whether they come from Chiswick or China, we will always source the best 2012 saw small but sustained rises in average UK rents, possible match from our ever-growing pool of with Wales and the South East leading the way (LSL potential purchasers. In fact, last year 37.4% of Property Services). In London, though, rents were on a country sales sold without any advertising. modest downward trajectory during 2012. Although Knight Frank doesn’t just sell property – our rents have fallen 2.3% over the year, demand remains experts advise on all aspects of the sector, from healthy, with the number of new tenancies up 18% by planning and development to restoration and the third quarter. estate management. Many who buy or sell their property through us come back for advice on anything from purchasing a property abroad, to Looking ahead how they might be affected by a proposed development, or how to secure the best It’s clear that the overall picture is of falling prices and mortgage. reducing levels of activity. A few areas are bucking the trend – notably the best London neighbourhoods and prime country homes – but they feel very much the exception rather than the rule. And even these properties are being affected to some degree by the stamp duty increase. The consensus seems to be that this mixed bag of news will prevail for some time to come; there is likely to be little change in the UK housing market until confidence in the economic recovery improves. Edward Cunningham Head of South West Team 4 MARKET SENTIMENT MAKING SENSE OF MARKET SENTIMENT Confidence, or the lack of it, has become a frequent topic of discussion in recent years, whether in relation to the economy as a whole or the property market in particular. Since it was launched in 2009, Knight Frank/Markit’s House Price Sentiment Index (HPSI) has been charting levels of household confidence and using it to predict future house price trends. What’s striking is how accurately that sentiment then translates into market data, so it can be a valuable tool for those considering a move or monitoring the performance of their property or region. HOW THE HPSI WORKS Based on the opinions of 1,500 18-64 year olds across the UK, the HPSI gives a view on current household confidence rather than historic evidence from transactions or mortgage activity. Any figure below 50 indicates that perceived prices are falling, and over 50 that they are rising. The overall picture The story from region to region When taking the UK as a whole, the HPSI has been on Perhaps the most surprising news from recent surveys a resolutely downward trend; heralding falls in house has been London’s first dip into negative territory. prices every month for the past two and a half years. Household sentiment recorded a perceived fall in Taking the October 2012 findings as a benchmark, property prices, scoring 49.5. every region came in at under 50, with the average at 45. The outlook for house prices also fell sharply The biggest falls were recorded in the North West (40.5) towards the end of 2012, but rallied to a modest overall and East Midlands (40.5), compared to the South East rise predicted for the next 12 months. Only three of the and the West Midlands which were two of the few 11 regions were expecting prices to rise in the coming regions with a gentle trend upwards. The South East year. reached 49.1 in October, the highest it had been since May, and West Midlands scored 45. it’s a measure of the Scotland’s year was mainly about growing confidence and its HPSI figure in October stood at 49. Wales, by lack of confidence contrast, finished on 41.9 after registering marked dips that even London and and rises in confidence throughout 2012. the South East have The region of Yorkshire and the Humber and also the North East saw sharp swings in confidence over the downgraded their third quarter of 2012, but ended with figures towards the middle of the UK-wide spread at 43.4 and 44.8 expected price increases respectively.