bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/071241; this version posted August 24, 2016. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY 4.0 International license. 1 1 Estimating time to the common ancestor for a beneficial allele 1 2 3,4 3* 2 Joel Smith , Graham Coop , Matthew Stephens , John Novembre , 3 1 Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of 4 America 5 2 Center for Population Biology, Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis, 6 California, United States of America 7 3 Department of Human Genetics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America 8 4 Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, United States of America 9 *
[email protected] 10 Abstract 11 The haplotypes of a beneficial allele carry information about its history that can shed light on its age and 12 putative cause for its increase in frequency. Specifically, the signature of an allele's age is contained in 13 the pattern of local ancestry that mutation and recombination impose on its haplotypic background. We 14 provide a method to exploit this pattern and infer the time to the common ancestor of a positively selected 15 allele following a rapid increase in frequency. We do so using a hidden Markov model which leverages 16 the length distribution of the shared ancestral haplotype, the accumulation of derived mutations on 17 the ancestral background, and the surrounding background haplotype diversity.