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C REPORT EL PASO MULTIFAMILY | Q3 2018 El Paso | Q3 2018

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C REPORT EL PASO MULTIFAMILY | Q3 2018 El Paso | Q3 2018 C REPORT EL PASO MULTIFAMILY | Q3 2018 El Paso | Q3 2018 EL PASO, TX Greysteel’s CREport focuses on any subject that potentially impacts, or relates to, the commercial real estate sector, ranging from studies of the performance of a specific asset type or region to economic and demographic studies, and anything in-between. Readers will benefit from our professionals’ expertise and insight into the economic and market trends that affect all sectors of commercial real estate, as well as our expansive knowledge of local markets. For more information about the CREport, or to request information for a specific region, please contact [email protected]. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT SALES CONTACTS DOUG BANERJEE BOYAN RADIC ANDREW MUELLER ANDREW HANSON Managing Director Managing Director Senior Investment Associate Senior Investment Associate 469.518.5038 469.518.5041 469.518.5033 469.518.8375 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] JOHN MARSHALL DOSS SCOTT SIMON JACK STONE MOISES MALDONADO Senior Investment Associate Senior Investment Associate Investment Associate Investment Associate 469.518.5037 469.458.6277 469.458.8545 469.914.7607 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MULTIFAMILY DEBT & STRUCTURED FINANCE CONTACTS DANIEL HARTNETT MITT PATEL Sr. Finance Associate Finance Associate 469.453.0194 469.518.5046 [email protected] [email protected] GREYSTEEL RESEARCH & MARKETING CORPORATE LEADERSHIP KEELEY BYER JASON LANCE ARI FIROOZABADI DUERK BREWER Lead Research Analyst Senior Designer / Media Coordinator President & CEO Chief Operating Officer * For more information or to inquire about Greysteel, please contact REBECCA WILEY YASSI FARZANEH NICOLE CAPOBIANCO Ari Firoozabadi, CEO & President ([email protected] | 202.417.3873) Director of Marketing Director of Corporate Services Director of Transaction Services SOURCES & METHODOLOGY All data is obtained from sources recognized as reliable but Greysteel makes no guarantees as to the accuracy thereof. (1) Rental & occupancy trends take into account only multifamily assets larger than 50 units, except in the case of development and transactional analysis. (2) The El Paso Metro Area, as defined by Greysteel Research, is comprised of the following counties: El Paso and Hudspeth. (3) Affordable properties and market-rate properties with an affordable element are not analyzed in this report; this includes, but is not limited to, LIHTC, Section 8, HCVP, senior housing, military housing, corporate housing, and student housing. (4) Data provided courtesy of Greysteel Research, CoStar Realty Information, Inc., REIS, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau. Q3 CRE Report / 2 El Paso | Q3 2018 EL PASO IS GROWING. As the 19th largest city in the US with a metro population close to 900,000, El Paso has become the center of significant change. Multiple developments are springing up, including the new 292 acre Monticello Smart Growth community, (which houses entertainment powerhouses like Topgolf and Alamo Drafthouse Cinema), The Fountains at Farah, and West Towne Marketplace just to name a few. Even Downtown is getting a facelift with a new streetcar system and various historic renovations. Not surprisingly, apartment development has been in full swing this cycle and the metro has expanded its inventory by about 15% since 2010. Consistent demand for apartments has also helped mitigate supply-driven pressure on fundamentals in recent years. VACANCY A traditionally higher-vacancy market than most—the metro averages about 8% historically—El Paso has had strong renter demand in 2018, and occupancies were near the historical average despite supply side pressure. Annualized absorption is on pace for a cyclical high in 2018, helping to reduce some slack in an inventory that has grown by more than 3% since 2016. Apartment construction surged in El Paso immediately following the recession, largely due to the economic stability provided by Fort Bliss, one of the nation’s largest Army bases. Post-recession, the government’s Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) plan led to a major expansion of Fort Bliss, which contributes $6 billion annually to the local economy and provides more than 60,000 jobs. Additionally, the University of Texas at El Paso enrolls about 25,000 students and provides close to 3,600 jobs to the local economy. Of all Texas metros, El Paso has the lowest share of jobs in mining and energy and has experienced the lowest number of energy-related job losses. This has helped the job market stay afloat after the decline in oil prices. But El Paso’s location bodes well for the energy industry, which makes up about 20% of the civilian workforce. Q3 CRE Report / 3 El Paso | Q3 2018 RENT El Paso’s average rent is about 70% below the National Index and well below the average rent of major Texas metros such as San Antonio, Dallas and Austin. Stagnant rent growth has plagued the metro for most of this cycle, however, rent gains have been encouraging in 2018. ECONOMY El Paso barely felt the pain of the recession, with cumulative job losses of less than 3%. However, the metro was slow to recover from the downturn, generally keeping pace with the national average early in this cycle. Job growth has picked up in recent quarters, though, with annual growth hovering near 2.5-3% since the start of 2016, and employment is more than 10% above the prerecession peak. A significant portion of these gains and projected new jobs are focused in call centers, because the metro has become a haven for such back-office work thanks to the large bilingual population. Recent examples include Fred Loya Insurance, Alorica, and Conduent each hiring hundreds of call center employees in new operations centers. Also, due to minimum wage hikes, call center operations in California are looking more seriously about moving from high-cost metros to El Paso. While these jobs typically pay around $11/hour, home prices and rents are so affordable in El Paso that dual-income households making that wage can often afford to buy a home or rent without being cost burdened. In this political climate, the metro’s exposure to the military could be seen as either a risk or an attribute. Fort Bliss and the William Beaumont Army Medical Center are in the El Paso metro. Fort Bliss employs nearly 50,000 military and civilian personnel combined, and the Beaumont center is undergoing a major $650 million expansion that should complete by 2019. While El Paso is commonly cited as one of the safest cities in the United States, the metro borders infamous Juarez, Mexico, which means that El Paso maintains a large force of border patrol agents. While it’s difficult to predict how public policy may affect military employment here, the solid base of government jobs in El Paso should provide a strong hedge against potential economic downturns in the future. Q3 CRE Report / 4 El Paso | Q3 2018 THE ABOVE NUMBERS INCLUDES ALL # OF UNITS (NOT LIMITED TO 50+ UTHE ABOVE NUMBERS INCLUDES ALL # OF UNITS (NOT LIMITED TO 50+ UNET ABSORPTION VS VACANCY NITS) NITS) PIPELINE VS EFFECTIVE RENTAL RATE PSF Net Absorption vs VacancyNet Absorption vs Vacancy Pipeline vs Effective Rental Rate PSFPipeline vs Effective Rental Rate PSF 1,200 1,200 12.0% 12.0% 2,400 2,400 $0.90 $0.90 1,000 1,000 11.0% 11.0% 2,000 2,000 $0.88 $0.88 800 800 10.0% 10.0% 1,600 1,600 $0.86 $0.86 600 600 9.0% 9.0% 1,200 1,200 $0.84 $0.84 400 400 8.0% 8.0% 800 800 $0.82 $0.82 200 200 7.0% 7.0% 0 0 6.0% 6.0% 400 400 $0.80 $0.80 -200 -200 5.0% 5.0% 0 0 $0.78 $0.78 2009 2010 20112009 2012 2010 2013 2011 2014 2012 2015 2013 2016 2014 2017 2015 YTD 2016 2017 YTD 2009 2010 20112009 2012 2010 2013 2011 2014 2012 2015 2013 2016 2014 2017 2015 YTD 2016 2017 YTD Net Absorption Net AbsorptionVacancy % Vacancy % Under ConstructionUnder ConstructionDelivered EffectiveDelivered Rent PSF Effective Rent PSF RECENT SALES PROPERTY CITY SALE DATE UNITS YEAR BUILT La Cima aka The Cellar Apartments El Paso May-18 78 1974 Montana Agave El Paso Q4-18 188 1974 Ryan’s Crossing El Paso Sep-17 248 1986 La Jolla Apartments El Paso Under Contract 72 2012 The Veranda El Paso Q4-18 64 1969 Villa Sierra El Paso Jan-18 243 1969 Wyndchase El Paso Jan-18 150 1970 Sunset at Sandstone Ranch El Paso Jun-18 152 2009 Las Ventanas El Paso Jul-18 216 1996 CLASS BREAKDOWN EL PASO MSA Class A Class B Class C Overall Effective Rent Growth (Y-O-Y) 1.8% 2.5% 4.1% 3.1% Vacancy Rate 6.6% 8.1% 7.7% 7.8% Net Absorption (12-Month Trailing) 325 251 88 665 Q3 CRE Report / 5 El Paso | Q3 2018 KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS HOUSING PROFILE LABOR Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Change 6.7% EMPLOYMENT 341,900 345,250 +1.0% Vacant UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3% 4.2% -0.1% 56.4% PEOPLE 2010 2018 2023 Projected POPULATION 804,125 874,325 913,650 Owner Occupied % CHANGE — +8.7% +4.5% HOUSEHOLDS 257,725 280,025 292,675 % CHANGE — +8.7% +4.5% 36.9% HOUSING UNITS 271,825 300,250 318,425 Renter OWNER-OCCUPIED 162,550 169,350 180,875 Occupied RENTER-OCCUPIED 95,150 110,800 111,775 MEDIAN HH INCOME $36,064 $43,232 $48,614 % CHANGE — +19.3% +12.4% EMPLOYMENT SECTORS EMPLOYMENT VS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Government 4% 360,000 11.0% Trade, Transp. & Utilities 23% 5% 350,000 10.0% Government 2% Ed.
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