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U.S. Election Analysis 2020: Media, Voters and the Campaign Early Reflections from Leading Academics

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U.S. Election Analysis 2020: Media, Voters and the Campaign Early Reflections from Leading Academics U.S. Election Analysis 2020: Media, Voters and the Campaign Early reflections from leading academics Edited by: Daniel Jackson, Danielle Sarver Coombs, Filippo Trevisan, Darren Lilleker and Einar Thorsen Centre for Comparative Politics and Media Research (Bournemouth University) https://www.bournemouth.ac.uk/research/centres-institutes/centre-comparative-politics-media-research Political Studies Association https://psa.ac.uk American Political Science Association's Information Technology and Politics Section https://www.apsanet.org/section18 For an electronic version with hyperlinked references please go to: https://www.electionanalysis.ws/us/ For a printed copy of this report, please contact: Dr Daniel Jackson E: [email protected] November 2020 978-1-910042-31-1 US Election Analysis 2019: Media, Voters and the Campaign [eBook-PDF] 978-1-910042-32-8 US Election Analysis 2019: Media, Voters and the Campaign [Print / softcover] Design & Layout: Mirva Villa BIC Classification: GTC/JFD/KNT/JPHF/JPL/JPVK/JPVL Published by: The Centre for Comparative Politics and Media Research Bournemouth University Poole, England BH12 5BB Acknowledgements This is now the sixth Election Analysis report we have produced in five years and the second U.S. Election Analysis Report. It has been a privilege to share this journey with the contributors to these reports: many of whom we know well, and many of whom we have met through this collaboration. We were keen for the U.S. 2020 election report’s editorial team to include U.S.-based scholars and so we are delighted to be working with Danielle Coombs and Filippo Trevisan. We have also welcomed many new authors to the Election Analysis reports this year, and hope that these collaborations continue. 2020 has been a particularly challenging year for academics, with many of us profoundly affected by the pandemic. Remaining productive in research during this time has been a challenge for many in the sector, and so we were concerned that many scholars would be unable to contribute this time. However, we were delighted with the response to our invitations to contribute, and once again, we are immensely grateful for our contributors’ enthusiasm, commitment and their expertise, which shine through the pages of this report. On behalf of the editorial team, we would like to recognise the financial and moral support of the Centre Comparative Politics and Media Research at Bournemouth University, and our great colleagues and student community. We are also very grateful for the support of our partners in this project: the APSA Information Technology & Politics Section, the Political Studies Association Media and Politics Group and the IPSA Political Communication Research Committee. We owe a special debt of gratitude to our outstanding Research Assistant Mirva Villa who also helped produce three of our previous Election Analysis reports and still agreed to join another project – despite the incredible demands we place upon her in a very short period of time. Knowing we could rely on you yet again was crucial! We are also delighted to be working with three brilliant Graduate Assistants, in Benjamin Simmons, Asvatha (Ash) Babu (American University) and Harrison LeJeune (Kent State), who have helped us in promotion and research for this report. Finally, a special thanks to our friends and family, in particular: Bec, Avie, Genevieve, Lotta, Emilia, Teresa and Liz. Contents 1. Introduction 8 Dan Jackson, Danielle Sarver Coombs, Filippo Trevisan, Darren Lilleker and Einar Thorsen Policy and Political Context 2. The far-too-normal election 11 Dave Karpf 3. One pandemic, two Americas and a week-long election day 12 Ioana Coman 1 4. Political emotion and the global pandemic: factors at odds with a Trump presidency 13 Erik P. Bucy 5. The pandemic did not produce the predominant headwinds that changed the course of the country 14 Amanda Weinstein 6. Confessions of a vampire 16 Kirk Combe 7. COVID-19 and the 2020 election 17 Timothy Coombs 8. President Trump promised a vaccine by Election Day: that politicized vaccination intentions 18 Matthew Motta 9. The enduring impact of the Black Lives Matter movement on the 2020 elections 20 Gabriel B. Tait 10. Where do we go from here? The 2020 U.S. presidential election, immigration, and crisis 22 Jamie Winders 11. A nation divided on abortion? 23 Zoe Brigley Thompson 12. Ending the policy of erasure: transgender issues in 2020 24 Anne C. Osborne 13. U.S. presidential politics and planetary crisis in 2020 25 Reed Kurtz 14. Joe Biden and America’s role in the world 26 Jason Edwards 15. President Biden’s foreign policy: engagement, multilateralism, and cautious globalization 27 Klaus W. Larres 16. Presidential primary outcomes as evidence of levels of party unity 28 Judd Thornton 17. A movable force: the armed forces voting bloc 30 Amanda Weinstein 18. Guns and the 2020 elections 32 Robert Spitzer 19. Can Biden's win stop the decline of the West and restore the role of the United States in the world? 33 Roman Gerodimos Voters 20. A divided America guarantees the longevity of Trumpism 35 Panos Koliastasis and Darren Lilleker 21. Cartographic perspectives of the 2020 U.S. election 36 Ben Hennig 2 22. Vote Switching From 2016 to 2020 38 Diana Mutz and Sam Wolken 23. It’s the democracy, stupid 39 Petros Ioannidis and Elias Tsaousakis 24. Election in a time of distrust 41 John Rennie Short 25. Polarization before and after the 2020 election 42 Barry Richards 26. The political psychology of Trumpism 43 Richard Perloff 27. White evangelicals and white born again Christians in 2020 44 Ryan Claassen 28. Angry voters are (often) misinformed voters 45 Brian Weeks 29. A Black, Latinx, and Independent alliance: 2020 46 Omar Ali 30. Believing Black women 48 Lindsey Meeks 31. The sleeping giant awakens: Latinos in the 2020 election 49 Lisa Sanchez 32. Trump won the senior vote because they thought he was best on the economy – not immigration 50 Peter McLeod 33. Did German Americans again support Donald Trump? 51 Per Urlaub & David Huenlich Candidates and the Campaign 34. The emotional politics of 2020: fear and loathing in the United States 53 Karin Wahl-Jorgensen 35. Character and image in the U.S. presidential election: a psychological perspective 54 Geoffrey Beattie 36. Branding and its limits 55 Ken Cosgrove 3 37. Celtic connections: reading the roots of Biden and Trump 56 Michael Higgins and Russ Eshleman 38. Kamala Harris, Bobby Jindal, and the construction of Indian American identity 57 Madhavi Reddi 39. Stratagems of hate: decoding Donald Trump’s denigrating rhetoric in the 2020 campaign 58 Rita Kirk and Stephanie Martin 40. Campaign finance and the 2020 U.S. election 59 Cayce Myers 41. The Emperor had no clothes, after all 60 Marc Hooghe 42. Trump’s tribal appeal: us vs. them 61 Stephen D. Reese News and Journalism 43. When journalism’s relevance is also on the ballot 63 Seth C. Lewis, Matt Carlson and Sue Robinson 44. Beyond the horse race: voting process coverage in 2020 64 Kathleen Searles 45. YouTube as a space for news 66 Stephanie Edgerly 46. 2020 shows the need for institutional news media to make racial justice a core value of journalism 68 4 Nikki Usher 47. Newspaper endorsements, presidential fitness and democracy 69 Kenneth Campbell 48. Alternative to what?A faltering alternative-as-independent media 70 Scott A. Eldridge II 49. Collaboration, connections, and continuity in media innovation 71 Valerie Belair-Gagnon 50. Learning from the news in a time of highly polarized media 72 Marion Just and Ann Crigler 51. Partisan media ecosystems and polarization in the 2020 U.S. election 73 Michael Beam 52. What do news audiences think about ‘cutting away’ from news that could contain misinformation? 74 Richard Fletcher 53. The day the music died: turning off the cameras on President Trump 76 Sarah Oates 54. When worlds collide: contentious politics in a fragmented media regime 77 Michael X. Delli Carpini 55. Forecasting the future of election forecasting 78 Benjamin Toff 56. A new horse race begins: the scramble for a post-election narrative 79 Victor Pickard Social media 57. Media and social media platforms finally begin to embrace their roles as democratic gatekeepers 81 Daniel Kreiss 58. Did social media make us more or less politically unequal in 2020? 82 Dan Lane and Nancy Molina-Rogers 59. Platform transparency in the fight against disinformation 83 Valerie Belair-Gagnon, Bente Kalsnas, Lucas Graves and Oscar Westlund 60. Why Trump's determination to sow doubt about data undermines democracy 84 5 Alfred Hermida 61. A banner year for advertising and a look at differences across platforms 85 Markus Neumann, Jielu Yao, Spencer Dean and Erika Franklin Fowler 62. How Joe Biden conveyed empathy 86 Dorian Davis 63. The debates and the election conversation on Twitter 87 G.R. Boynton and Glenn W. Richardson 64. Did the economy, COVID-19, or Black Lives Matter to the Senate candidates in 2020? 88 Heather K. Evans and Rian F. Moore 65. Leadership through showmanship: Trump's ability to coin nicknames for opponents on Twitter 90 Marco Morini 66. Election countdown: Instagram's role in visualizing the 2020 campaign 92 Terri L. Towner and Caroline L. Munoz 67. Candidates did lackluster youth targeting on Instagram 93 John Parmelee 68. College students, political engagement and Snapchat in the 2020 general election 94 Laurie L. Rice and Kenneth W. Moffett 69. Advertising on Facebook: transparency, but not transparent enough 96 Jennifer Stromer-Galley, Patricia Rossini, Brian McKernan and Jeff Hemsley 70. Detecting emotions in Facebook political ads with computer vision 98 Michael Bossetta and Rasmus Schmøkel Popular culture and public critique 71. On campaigns and political trash talk 101 Michael Butterworth 72.
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