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Commodity Risk Management Techniques & Hedge
9/4/2018 COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES & HEDGE ACCOUNTING CHANGES September 5, 2018 To Receive CPE Credit • Individuals . Participate in entire webinar . Answer polls when they are provided • Groups . Group leader is the person who registered & logged on to the webinar . Answer polls when they are provided . Complete group attendance form . Group leader sign bottom of form . Submit group attendance form to [email protected] within 24 hours of webinar • If all eligibility requirements are met, each participant will be emailed their CPE certificate within 15 business days of webinar 1 9/4/2018 Bryan Wright Partner | BKD Indianapolis I 317.383.5471 Allen Douglass Regional Director | INTL FCStone Financial, Inc. FCM Division Indianapolis l 317.732.4660 Disclaimer The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc., a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a futures commission merchant. All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of INTL FCStone Markets, LLC (“IFM”), a member of the NFA and provisionally registered with the CFTC as a swap dealer. IFM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of IFM. -
Three Essays in Commodity Risk Management
THREE ESSAYS IN COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT by Phat Vinh Luong A Dissertation Submitted To The Graduate School Of Business Of Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey In Partial Fulfillment Of The Requirements For The Degree Of Doctor Of Philosophy Written under the direction of Ben Sopranzetti (Principal Adviser) And approved by Xiaowei Xu Bruce Mizrach Weiwei Chen Newark, NJ. May 2018 © Copyright by Phat Vinh Luong 2018 All Rights Reserved Abstract This thesis includes three essays. These essays focus on the commodity market and cover a wide range of topics. Their topics range from the roles of inventory, pricing strategies to impacts of government policies on the commodity market. The first essay provides an analytical framework to distinguish the roles of inventory by investigating their behaviors in a frequency domain. If inventory was used as a buffer for demand shocks, then the stock level should decrease at all frequencies under both the production smoothing and the stockout avoidance strategies. The inventory investment is negative at all frequencies under the stockout avoidance strategy while it is negative at high frequencies (short-term) and is positive at low frequencies (long-term). On the other hand, if inventory is used as a speculative tool, then its level and the inventory investment should increase with the increases in demand and prices at all frequencies. The volatilities of inventory investment also reveal the roles of inventory. Under production smoothing theory, inventory investment is as volatile as the demand at all frequencies while it is as volatile as the output if growth is persistent but less volatile than output if growth is not persistent. -
Factor-Based Commodity Investing
Factor-Based Commodity Investing January 2018 Athanasios Sakkas Assistant Professor in Finance, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton Nikolaos Tessaromatis Professor of Finance, EDHEC Business School, EDHEC-Risk Institute JEL Classification: G10, G11, G12, G23 Keywords: Commodities; Factor Premia; Momentum; Basis, Basis-Momentum, Variance Timing, Commodity Return Predictability EDHEC is one of the top five business schools in France. Its reputation is built on the high quality of its faculty and the privileged relationship with professionals that the school has cultivated since its establishment in 1906. EDHEC Business School has decided to draw on its extensive knowledge of the professional environment and has therefore focused its research on themes that satisfy the needs of professionals. EDHEC pursues an active research policy in the field of finance. EDHEC-Risk Institute carries out numerous research programmes in the areas of asset allocation and risk management in both the 2 traditional and alternative investment universes. Copyright © 2018 EDHEC Abstract A multi-factor commodity portfolio combining the high momentum, low basis and high basis- momentum commodity factor portfolios significantly, economically and statistically outperforms, widely used commodity benchmarks. We find evidence that a variance timing strategy applied to commodity factor portfolios improves the return to risk trade-off of unmanaged commodity portfolios. In contrast, dynamic commodities strategies based on commodity return prediction models provide little value added once variance timing has been applied to commodity portfolios. 1. Introduction There is growing evidence that commodity prices can be explained by a small number of priced commodity factors. Commodity portfolios exposed to commodity factors earn significant risk premiums, in addition to the premium offered by a broadly diversified commodity index. -
Agricultural Commodity Risk Management
Agricultural Commodity Risk Management: Policy Options and Practical Instruments with Emphasis on the Tea Economy Alexander Sarris Director, Trade and Markets Division, FAO Presentation at the Intergovernmental Group of Tea, nineteenth session, Delhi India, May 12, 2010 Outline of presentation • Background and motivation • Risks faced by rural households • Risks in the tea economy • Agricultural productivity and credit • Constraints to expanding intermediate input use in agriculture • The demand for commodity price insurance • The demand for weather insurance • Operationalizing the use of price and weather insurance • Possibilities for the tea economy Background and motivation: Some major questions relevant to agricultural land productivity and risk • Is agricultural land productivity a factor in growth and poverty reduction? • What are the factors affecting land productivity? Is risk a factor? • Are there inefficiencies in factor use among smallholders? If yes in which markets? Why? • Determinants of intermediate input demand and access to seasonal credit • What are the impacts or risk at various segments of the value chain? Background and Motivation: Uncertainty and Risk • Small (and medium size) agricultural producers face many income and non-income risks • Individual risk management and risk coping strategies maybe detrimental to income growth as they lead to low returns low risk activities. Considerable residual income risk and vulnerability • Is there a demand for additional price and weather related income insurance in light of individual existing risk management strategies? • Can index insurance crowd in credit and how? • Is there a rationale for market based or publicly supported price and weather based safety nets • What are appropriate institutional structures conducive to combining index insurance with credit? Farmer Exposure to Risk. -
Banks As Regulated Traders
Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. Banks as Regulated Traders Antonio Falato, Diana Iercosan, and Filip Zikes 2019-005 Please cite this paper as: Falato, Antonio, Diana Iercosan, and Filip Zikes (2021). \Banks as Regulated Traders," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-005r1. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.005r1. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other than acknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Banks as Regulated Traders Antonio Falato Diana Iercosan Filip Zikes∗ July 29, 2021 Abstract Banks use trading as a vehicle to take risk. Using unique high-frequency regulatory data, we estimate the sensitivity of weekly bank trading profits to aggregate equity, fixed-income, credit, currency and commodity risk factors. Our estimates imply that U.S. banks had large trading exposures to equity market risk before the Volcker Rule, which they curtailed afterwards. They also have exposures to credit and currency risk. The results hold up in a quasi-natural experimental design that exploits the phased-in introduction of reporting requirements to address identification. Heterogeneity and placebo tests further corroborate the results. -
Fruzsina Mák Volume Risk in the Power Market
FRUZSINA MÁK VOLUME RISK IN THE POWER MARKET Department of Statistics Supervisors: Beatrix Oravecz, Senior lecturer, Ph.D. András Sugár, Associate professor, Head of Department of Statistics, Ph.D. Copyright © Fruzsina Mák, 2017 Corvinus University of Budapest Doctoral Programme of Management and Business Administration Volume risk in the power market Load profiling considering uncertainty Ph.D. Dissertation Fruzsina Mák Budapest, 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 2 1. APPLICATION EXAMPLES AND TERMINOLOGY OF CONSUMER PROFILING ...................................................................................................................................... 12 1.1. Price- and volume uncertainty on the energy market ............................................ 12 1.2. Some application examples on profiling ............................................................... 19 1.2.1. Short and long term hedging and pricing ....................................................... 19 1.2.2. Demand side management ............................................................................. 22 1.2.3. Building portfolios and creating balancing groups ........................................ 24 1.3. Profile and profile-related risks ............................................................................. 26 1.3.1. Definition of consumer profile ....................................................................... 26 1.3.2. -
Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries
SR/SMG/2002-01 Derivatives and Risk Management in the Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Electricity Industries October 2002 Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The information contained herein should be attributed to the Energy Information Administration and should not be construed as advocating or reflecting any policy position of the Department of Energy or any other organization. Service Reports are prepared by the Energy Information Administration upon special request and are based on assumptions specified by the requester. Contacts This report was prepared by the staff of the Energy The Energy Information Administration would like to Information Administration and Gregory Kuserk of the acknowledge the indispensible help of the Commodity Commodity Futures Trading Commission. General Futures Trading Commission in the research and writ- questions regarding the report may be directed to the ing of this report. EIA’s special expertise is in energy, not project leader, Douglas R. Hale. Specific questions financial markets. The Commission assigned one of its should be directed to the following analysts: senior economists, Gregory Kuserk, to this project. He Summary, Chapters 1, 3, not only wrote sections of the report and provided data, and 5 (Prices and Electricity) he also provided the invaluable professional judgment Douglas R. Hale and perspective that can only be gained from long expe- (202/287-1723, [email protected]). rience. The EIA staff appreciated his exceptional pro- ductivity, flexibility, and good humor. -
Risks and Risk Management of Renewable Energy Projects: the Case of Onshore a Nd Offshore Wind Parks
Risks and Risk Management of Renewable Energy Projects: The Case of Onshore and Offshore Wind Parks Nadine Gatzert, Thomas Kosub Working Paper Department of Insurance Economics and Risk Management Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU) Version: September 2015 2 RISKS AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS: THE CASE OF ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIND PARKS Nadine Gatzert, Thomas Kosub This version: September 6, 2015 ABSTRACT Wind energy is among the most relevant types of renewable energy and plays a vital role in the projected European energy mix for 2020. The aim of this paper is to comprehensively present current risks and risk management solutions of renewable energy projects and to identify critical gaps in risk transfer, thereby differentiating between onshore and offshore wind parks with focus on the European market. Our study shows that apart from insurance, diversification, in particular, is one of the most important tools for risk management and it is used in various dimensions, which also results from a lack of alternative coverage. Furthermore, policy and regulatory risks appear to represent a major barrier for renewable energy investments, while at the same time, insurance coverage or alternative risk mitigation is strongly limited. This emphasizes the need for new risk transfer solutions to ensure a sustainable growth of renewable energy. Keywords: Wind park, renewable energy, insurance, policy risk, diversification 1. INTRODUCTION According to the projected energy mix for 2020 in Europe, which aims to supply 20% of energy consumption from renewable energy, wind and solar energy will become increasingly relevant as a key element of future power generation.1 To achieve these goals, considerable investment volumes are needed by federal, institutional and private investors. -
Commodity Risks and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns
Commodity Risks and the Cross-Section of Equity Returns July 2015 Chris Brooks ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading Adrian Fernandez-Perez Department of Finance, Auckland University of Technology Joëlle Miffre EDHEC Business School Ogonna Nneji ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading Abstract The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of global equity returns. We employ a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures and a term structure portfolio that captures phases of backwardation and contango as mimicking portfolios for commodity risk. We find that equity-sorted portfolios with greater sensitivities to the excess returns of the backwardation and contango portfolio command higher average excess returns, suggesting that when measured appropriately, commodity risk is pervasive in stocks. Our conclusions are robust to the addition to the pricing model of financial, macroeconomic and business cycle-based risk factors. Keywords: Long-only commodity portfolio, term structure portfolio, commodity risks, cross- section of equity returns JEL classifications: G12, G13 EDHEC is one of the top five business schools in France. Its reputation is built on the high quality of its faculty and the privileged relationship with professionals that the school has cultivated since its establishment in 1906. EDHEC Business School has decided to draw on its extensive knowledge of the professional environment and has therefore focused its research on themes that satisfy the needs of professionals. EDHEC pursues an active research policy in the field of finance. EDHEC-Risk Institute carries out numerous research programmes in the areas of asset allocation and risk management in both the 2 traditional and alternative investment universes. -
Documentary Risk in Commodity Trade
UNCTAD/ITCD/COM/Misc. 31 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT SGS SOCIÉTÉ GÉNÉRALE DE SURVEILLANCE S.A. DOCUMENTARY RISK IN COMMODITY TRADE UNITED NATIONS NOTE The views expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the UNCTAD secretariat. The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. * * * Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement is requested, together with a reference to the document number. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD secretariat. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper has been prepared by Frida Youssef, consultant to UNCTAD, with substantive inputs from UNCTAD and SGS staff. In addition to the editor David M. Thorup, UNCTAD wishes to thank the following people and institutions for their assistance in providing information about their institutions along with other inputs and research materials: Roland Gutzwiller (Finagrain), Ad Rocks (Cargill international), Luce Aeschmann (Cargill International), Georges Glasner (Cargill International), Richard Hutchinson (ED & F Man limited), René Kuratle (UBS), Guy Barras (Crédit Suisse), Gerry Gross (MeesPierson), Paul Harding (Rabobank International), Gary Collyer (HSBC Trade Services), Doug Davidson (Standard Chartered Bank), Andrew M.K. Lennard (Texel Finance), Gordon Cragge (SITPRO), Ron Katz (ICC), Jayant Abhankar (IMB), Alex Grey (Lloyd’s Maritime Information Services), Anthony Holms (IFIA), Philip M. -
Derivatives & Agriculture
Derivatives & Agriculture Lecture Notes Sheri Liu G Cornelis van Kooten Outline Introduction Futures and Forwards Options Weather derivatives Markets for Trading Derivatives Exchange-traded market: Individuals trade standardized contracts that have been defined by the exchange (e.g., Chicago Mercantile Exchange, International Continental Exchange or ICE in Winnipeg) Over-the-counter (OTC) market: Individualized contracts where the market consists of a telephone-and computer-linked network of dealers Refences: Colin A. Carter, 2003. Futures and Options Markets. (Prentice Hall). John C. Hull, 2012. Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives. 8th ed. (Pearson Education). Types of Traders Hedgers use financial derivatives (such as options) to reduce the risk that they face from potential future movements in a market variable (crop prices, stock values) or even physical variable (weather). Speculators use financial derivatives to bet on the future direction of a market or other variable Arbitrageurs take offsetting positions in two or more financial instruments to lock in a profit. Main Types of Derivative Instruments Differences: Common features: Futures: contracts are standardized, a contract traded through futures exchanges, between two subject to daily settlement, parties for trading guaranteed by a clearinghouse, and something in the has marketability. future with the Forwards: contracts are non- terms and price standardized, traded OTC, and usually agreed upon settled on the pre-determined date. today; margin Options: buyer of an option -
Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Risk
This standard has been integrated into the consolidated Basel Framework: https://www.bis.org/basel_framework/ Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Minimum capital requirements for market risk January 2019 (rev. February 2019) This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2019. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 978-92-9259-237-0 (online) Contents Minimum capital requirements for market risk ..................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 RBC25 Boundary between the banking book and the trading book ....................................................................... 3 Scope of the trading book .......................................................................................................................................... 3 Standards for assigning instruments to the regulatory books ..................................................................... 3 Supervisory powers ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 Documentation of instrument designation .........................................................................................................