WORLDS HIDDEN in PLAIN SIGHT] the Evolving Idea of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute 1984–2019
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Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK
systems Article How We Understand “Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK Michael C. Jackson Centre for Systems Studies, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7TS, UK; [email protected]; Tel.: +44-7527-196400 Received: 11 November 2020; Accepted: 4 December 2020; Published: 7 December 2020 Abstract: Many authors have sought to summarize what they regard as the key features of “complexity”. Some concentrate on the complexity they see as existing in the world—on “ontological complexity”. Others highlight “cognitive complexity”—the complexity they see arising from the different interpretations of the world held by observers. Others recognize the added difficulties flowing from the interactions between “ontological” and “cognitive” complexity. Using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK, and the responses to it, the purpose of this paper is to show that the way we understand complexity makes a huge difference to how we respond to crises of this type. Inadequate conceptualizations of complexity lead to poor responses that can make matters worse. Different understandings of complexity are discussed and related to strategies proposed for combatting the pandemic. It is argued that a “critical systems thinking” approach to complexity provides the most appropriate understanding of the phenomenon and, at the same time, suggests which systems methodologies are best employed by decision makers in preparing for, and responding to, such crises. Keywords: complexity; Covid-19; critical systems thinking; systems methodologies 1. Introduction No one doubts that we are, in today’s world, entangled in complexity. At the global level, economic, social, technological, health and ecological factors have become interconnected in unprecedented ways, and the consequences are immense. -
Fractal Expressionism—Where Art Meets Science
Santa Fe Institute. February 14, 2002 9:04 a.m. Taylor page 1 Fractal Expressionism—Where Art Meets Science Richard Taylor 1 INTRODUCTION If the Jackson Pollock story (1912–1956) hadn’t happened, Hollywood would have invented it any way! In a drunken, suicidal state on a stormy night in March 1952, the notorious Abstract Expressionist painter laid down the foundations of his masterpiece Blue Poles: Number 11, 1952 by rolling a large canvas across the oor of his windswept barn and dripping household paint from an old can with a wooden stick. The event represented the climax of a remarkable decade for Pollock, during which he generated a vast body of distinct art work commonly referred to as the “drip and splash” technique. In contrast to the broken lines painted by conventional brush contact with the canvas surface, Pollock poured a constant stream of paint onto his horizontal canvases to produce uniquely contin- uous trajectories. These deceptively simple acts fuelled unprecedented controversy and polarized public opinion around the world. Was this primitive painting style driven by raw genius or was he simply a drunk who mocked artistic traditions? Twenty years later, the Australian government rekindled the controversy by pur- chasing the painting for a spectacular two million (U.S.) dollars. In the history of Western art, only works by Rembrandt, Velazquez, and da Vinci had com- manded more “respect” in the art market. Today, Pollock’s brash and energetic works continue to grab attention, as witnessed by the success of the recent retro- spectives during 1998–1999 (at New York’s Museum of Modern Art and London’s Tate Gallery) where prices of forty million dollars were discussed for Blue Poles: Number 11, 1952. -
Laplace's Deterministic Paradise Lost ?
“We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements Laplace’s deterministic paradise lost of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes.” Miguel Angel Fuentes Santa Fe Institute, USA Pierre-Simon Laplace, ~1800 Instituto Balseiro and CONICET, Argentina Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute Comments: Heisenberg uncertainty principle In the framework of quantum mechanics -one of the most successful created theories- is not possible to know -at the Einstein was very unhappy about this apparent randomness same time- the position and velocity of a given object. (~1927) in nature. His views were summed up in his famous phrase, 'God does not play dice.' ∆v ∆x m > h v v v (from Stephen Hawking’s lecture) ? Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute In chaotic (deterministic) systems Same functionality (SAME ORGANISM) x(t) Not chaotic trajectory x(0) = c ∆x ± t ? Some expected initial condition + Mutations Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute Same functionality (SAME ORGANISM) Many process can happen between regular-chaotic behavior Chaotic trajectory Some expected initial condition + Mutations Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe Institute 4.1 Parameter Dependence of the Iterates 35 4.1 Parameter Dependence of the Iterates 35 r values are densely interwr values oarevedenselyn andinterwoneovfindsen and onea sensitifinds a sensitive dependenceve dependence ononparameterparametervalues.values. -
Dissipative Structures, Complexity and Strange Attractors: Keynotes for a New Eco-Aesthetics
Dissipative structures, complexity and strange attractors: keynotes for a new eco-aesthetics 1 2 3 3 R. M. Pulselli , G. C. Magnoli , N. Marchettini & E. Tiezzi 1Department of Urban Studies and Planning, M.I.T, Cambridge, U.S.A. 2Faculty of Engineering, University of Bergamo, Italy and Research Affiliate, M.I.T, Cambridge, U.S.A. 3Department of Chemical and Biosystems Sciences, University of Siena, Italy Abstract There is a new branch of science strikingly at variance with the idea of knowledge just ended and deterministic. The complexity we observe in nature makes us aware of the limits of traditional reductive investigative tools and requires new comprehensive approaches to reality. Looking at the non-equilibrium thermodynamics reported by Ilya Prigogine as the key point to understanding the behaviour of living systems, the research on design practices takes into account the lot of dynamics occurring in nature and seeks to imagine living shapes suiting living contexts. When Edgar Morin speaks about the necessity of a method of complexity, considering the evolutive features of living systems, he probably means that a comprehensive method should be based on deep observations and flexible ordering laws. Actually designers and planners are engaged in a research field concerning fascinating theories coming from science and whose playground is made of cities, landscapes and human settlements. So, the concept of a dissipative structure and the theory of space organized by networks provide a new point of view to observe the dynamic behaviours of systems, finally bringing their flowing patterns into the practices of design and architecture. However, while science discovers the fashion of living systems, the question asked is how to develop methods to configure open shapes according to the theory of evolutionary physics. -
Self-Organized Complexity in the Physical, Biological, and Social Sciences
Introduction Self-organized complexity in the physical, biological, and social sciences Donald L. Turcotte*† and John B. Rundle‡ *Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853; and ‡Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 he National Academy of Sciences convened an Arthur M. A complex phenomenon is said to exhibit self-organizing TSackler Colloquium on ‘‘Self-organized complexity in the phys- complexity only if it has some form of power-law (fractal) ical, biological, and social sciences’’ at the NAS Beckman Center, scaling. It should be emphasized, however, that the power-law Irvine, CA, on March 23–24, 2001. The organizers were D.L.T. scaling may be applicable only over a limited range of scales. (Cornell), J.B.R. (Colorado), and Hans Frauenfelder (Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM). The organizers had no Networks difficulty in finding many examples of complexity in subjects Another classic example of self-organizing complexity is drain- ranging from fluid turbulence to social networks. However, an age networks. These networks are characterized by the concept acceptable definition for self-organizing complexity is much more of stream order. The smallest streams are first-order streams— elusive. Symptoms of systems that exhibit self-organizing complex- two first-order streams merge to form a second-order stream, ity include fractal statistics and chaotic behavior. Some examples of two second-order streams merge to form a third-order stream, such systems are completely deterministic (i.e., fluid turbulence), and so forth. Drainage networks satisfy the fractal relation Eq. -
Fractal Curves and Complexity
Perception & Psychophysics 1987, 42 (4), 365-370 Fractal curves and complexity JAMES E. CUTI'ING and JEFFREY J. GARVIN Cornell University, Ithaca, New York Fractal curves were generated on square initiators and rated in terms of complexity by eight viewers. The stimuli differed in fractional dimension, recursion, and number of segments in their generators. Across six stimulus sets, recursion accounted for most of the variance in complexity judgments, but among stimuli with the most recursive depth, fractal dimension was a respect able predictor. Six variables from previous psychophysical literature known to effect complexity judgments were compared with these fractal variables: symmetry, moments of spatial distribu tion, angular variance, number of sides, P2/A, and Leeuwenberg codes. The latter three provided reliable predictive value and were highly correlated with recursive depth, fractal dimension, and number of segments in the generator, respectively. Thus, the measures from the previous litera ture and those of fractal parameters provide equal predictive value in judgments of these stimuli. Fractals are mathematicalobjectsthat have recently cap determine the fractional dimension by dividing the loga tured the imaginations of artists, computer graphics en rithm of the number of unit lengths in the generator by gineers, and psychologists. Synthesized and popularized the logarithm of the number of unit lengths across the ini by Mandelbrot (1977, 1983), with ever-widening appeal tiator. Since there are five segments in this generator and (e.g., Peitgen & Richter, 1986), fractals have many curi three unit lengths across the initiator, the fractionaldimen ous and fascinating properties. Consider four. sion is log(5)/log(3), or about 1.47. -
Measures of Complexity a Non--Exhaustive List
Measures of Complexity a non--exhaustive list Seth Lloyd d'Arbeloff Laboratory for Information Systems and Technology Department of Mechanical Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology [email protected] The world has grown more complex recently, and the number of ways of measuring complexity has grown even faster. This multiplication of measures has been taken by some to indicate confusion in the field of complex systems. In fact, the many measures of complexity represent variations on a few underlying themes. Here is an (incomplete) list of measures of complexity grouped into the corresponding themes. An historical analog to the problem of measuring complexity is the problem of describing electromagnetism before Maxwell's equations. In the case of electromagnetism, quantities such as electric and magnetic forces that arose in different experimental contexts were originally regarded as fundamentally different. Eventually it became clear that electricity and magnetism were in fact closely related aspects of the same fundamental quantity, the electromagnetic field. Similarly, contemporary researchers in architecture, biology, computer science, dynamical systems, engineering, finance, game theory, etc., have defined different measures of complexity for each field. Because these researchers were asking the same questions about the complexity of their different subjects of research, however, the answers that they came up with for how to measure complexity bear a considerable similarity to eachother. Three questions that researchers frequently ask to quantify the complexity of the thing (house, bacterium, problem, process, investment scheme) under study are 1. How hard is it to describe? 2. How hard is it to create? 3. What is its degree of organization? Here is a list of some measures of complexity grouped according to the question that they try to answer. -
Santa Fe Institute 2014 Complex Systems Summer School
Santa Fe Institute 2014 Complex Systems Summer School Introduction to Nonlinear Dynamics Instructor: Liz Bradley Department of Computer Science University of Colorado Boulder CO 80309-0430 USA [email protected] www.cs.colorado.edu/∼lizb Syllabus: 1. Introduction; Dynamics of Maps chs 1 & 10 of [52] • a brief tour of nonlinear dynamics [34] (in [18]) • an extended example: the logistic map – how to plot its behavior – initial conditions, transients, and fixed points – bifurcations and attractors – chaos: sensitive dependence on initial conditions, λ, and all that – pitchforks, Feigenbaum, and universality [23] (in [18]) – the connection between chaos and fractals [24], ch 11 of [52] – period-3, chaos, and the u-sequence [33, 36] (latter is in [18]) – maybe: unstable periodic orbits [3, 26, 51] 2. Dynamics of Flows [52], sections 2.0-2.3, 2.8, 5, and 6 (except 6.6 and 6.8) • maps vs. flows – time: discrete vs. continuous – axes: state/phase space [10] • an example: the simple harmonic oscillator – some math & physics review [9] – portraying & visualizing the dynamics [10] • trajectories, attractors, basins, and boundaries [10] • dissipation and attractors [44] • bifurcations 1 • how sensitive dependence and the Lyapunov exponent manifest in flows • anatomyofaprototypicalchaoticattractor: [24] – stretching/folding and the un/stable manifolds – fractal structure and the fractal dimension ch 11 of [52] – unstable periodic orbits [3, 26, 51] – shadowing – maybe: symbol dynamics [27] (in [14]); [29] • Lab: (Joshua Garland) the logistic map and the driven pendulum 3. Tools [2, 10, 39, 42] • ODE solvers and their dynamics [9, 35, 37, 46] • Poincar´esections [28] • stability, eigenstuff, un/stable manifolds and a bit of control theory • embedology [30, 31, 32, 41, 48, 49, 47, 54] ([41] is in [39] and [47] is in [55];) • Lab: (Joshua Garland) nonlinear time series analysis with the tisean package[1, 32]. -
Lecture Notes on Descriptional Complexity and Randomness
Lecture notes on descriptional complexity and randomness Peter Gács Boston University [email protected] A didactical survey of the foundations of Algorithmic Information The- ory. These notes introduce some of the main techniques and concepts of the field. They have evolved over many years and have been used and ref- erenced widely. “Version history” below gives some information on what has changed when. Contents Contents iii 1 Complexity1 1.1 Introduction ........................... 1 1.1.1 Formal results ...................... 3 1.1.2 Applications ....................... 6 1.1.3 History of the problem.................. 8 1.2 Notation ............................. 10 1.3 Kolmogorov complexity ..................... 11 1.3.1 Invariance ........................ 11 1.3.2 Simple quantitative estimates .............. 14 1.4 Simple properties of information ................ 16 1.5 Algorithmic properties of complexity .............. 19 1.6 The coding theorem....................... 24 1.6.1 Self-delimiting complexity................ 24 1.6.2 Universal semimeasure.................. 27 1.6.3 Prefix codes ....................... 28 1.6.4 The coding theorem for ¹Fº . 30 1.6.5 Algorithmic probability.................. 31 1.7 The statistics of description length ............... 32 2 Randomness 37 2.1 Uniform distribution....................... 37 2.2 Computable distributions..................... 40 2.2.1 Two kinds of test..................... 40 2.2.2 Randomness via complexity............... 41 2.2.3 Conservation of randomness............... 43 2.3 Infinite sequences ........................ 46 iii Contents 2.3.1 Null sets ......................... 47 2.3.2 Probability space..................... 52 2.3.3 Computability ...................... 54 2.3.4 Integral.......................... 54 2.3.5 Randomness tests .................... 55 2.3.6 Randomness and complexity............... 56 2.3.7 Universal semimeasure, algorithmic probability . 58 2.3.8 Randomness via algorithmic probability........ -
Nonlinear Dynamics and Entropy of Complex Systems with Hidden and Self-Excited Attractors
entropy Editorial Nonlinear Dynamics and Entropy of Complex Systems with Hidden and Self-Excited Attractors Christos K. Volos 1,* , Sajad Jafari 2 , Jacques Kengne 3 , Jesus M. Munoz-Pacheco 4 and Karthikeyan Rajagopal 5 1 Laboratory of Nonlinear Systems, Circuits & Complexity (LaNSCom), Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece 2 Nonlinear Systems and Applications, Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam; [email protected] 3 Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Dschang, P.O. Box 134 Dschang, Cameroon; [email protected] 4 Faculty of Electronics Sciences, Autonomous University of Puebla, Puebla 72000, Mexico; [email protected] 5 Center for Nonlinear Dynamics, Institute of Research and Development, Defence University, P.O. Box 1041 Bishoftu, Ethiopia; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 1 April 2019; Accepted: 3 April 2019; Published: 5 April 2019 Keywords: hidden attractor; complex systems; fractional-order; entropy; chaotic maps; chaos In the last few years, entropy has been a fundamental and essential concept in information theory. It is also often used as a measure of the degree of chaos in systems; e.g., Lyapunov exponents, fractal dimension, and entropy are usually used to describe the complexity of chaotic systems. Thus, it will be important to study entropy in nonlinear systems. Additionally, there has been an increasing interest in a new classification of nonlinear dynamical systems including two kinds of attractors: self-excited attractors and hidden attractors. Self-excited attractors can be localized straightforwardly by applying a standard computational procedure. -
Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks
Article Measuring Complexity and Predictability of Time Series with Flexible Multiscale Entropy for Sensor Networks Renjie Zhou 1,2, Chen Yang 1,2, Jian Wan 1,2,*, Wei Zhang 1,2, Bo Guan 3,*, Naixue Xiong 4,* 1 School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China; [email protected] (R.Z.); [email protected] (C.Y.); [email protected] (W.Z.) 2 Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation of Ministry of Education, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China 3 School of Electronic and Information Engineer, Ningbo University of Technology, Ningbo 315211, China 4 Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northeastern State University, Tahlequah, OK 74464, USA * Correspondence: [email protected] (J.W.); [email protected] (B.G.); [email protected] (N.X.) Tel.: +1-404-645-4067 (N.X.) Academic Editor: Mohamed F. Younis Received: 15 November 2016; Accepted: 24 March 2017; Published: 6 April 2017 Abstract: Measurement of time series complexity and predictability is sometimes the cornerstone for proposing solutions to topology and congestion control problems in sensor networks. As a method of measuring time series complexity and predictability, multiscale entropy (MSE) has been widely applied in many fields. However, sample entropy, which is the fundamental component of MSE, measures the similarity of two subsequences of a time series with either zero or one, but without in-between values, which causes sudden changes of entropy values even if the time series embraces small changes. This problem becomes especially severe when the length of time series is getting short. For solving such the problem, we propose flexible multiscale entropy (FMSE), which introduces a novel similarity function measuring the similarity of two subsequences with full-range values from zero to one, and thus increases the reliability and stability of measuring time series complexity. -
Understanding the Mandelbrot and Julia Set
Understanding the Mandelbrot and Julia Set Jake Zyons Wood August 31, 2015 Introduction Fractals infiltrate the disciplinary spectra of set theory, complex algebra, generative art, computer science, chaos theory, and more. Fractals visually embody recursive structures endowing them with the ability of nigh infinite complexity. The Sierpinski Triangle, Koch Snowflake, and Dragon Curve comprise a few of the more widely recognized iterated function fractals. These recursive structures possess an intuitive geometric simplicity which makes their creation, at least at a shallow recursive depth, easy to do by hand with pencil and paper. The Mandelbrot and Julia set, on the other hand, allow no such convenience. These fractals are part of the class: escape-time fractals, and have only really entered mathematicians’ consciousness in the late 1970’s[1]. The purpose of this paper is to clearly explain the logical procedures of creating escape-time fractals. This will include reviewing the necessary math for this type of fractal, then specifically explaining the algorithms commonly used in the Mandelbrot Set as well as its variations. By the end, the careful reader should, without too much effort, feel totally at ease with the underlying principles of these fractals. What Makes The Mandelbrot Set a set? 1 Figure 1: Black and white Mandelbrot visualization The Mandelbrot Set truly is a set in the mathematica sense of the word. A set is a collection of anything with a specific property, the Mandelbrot Set, for instance, is a collection of complex numbers which all share a common property (explained in Part II). All complex numbers can in fact be labeled as either a member of the Mandelbrot set, or not.