Cricket Analytics
Cricket Analytics by Gamage Harsha Perera M.Sc., Simon Fraser University, Canada, 2011 B.Sc.(Hons.), University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, 2008 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science Faculty of Science c Gamage Harsha Perera 2015 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY Fall 2015 All rights reserved. However, in accordance with the Copyright Act of Canada, this work may be reproduced without authorization under the conditions for “Fair Dealing.” Therefore, limited reproduction of this work for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, review and news reporting is likely to be in accordance with the law, particularly if cited appropriately. Approval Name: Gamage Harsha Perera Degree: Doctor of Philosophy (Statistics) Title: Cricket Analytics Examining Committee: Chair: Yi Lu Associate Professor Tim Swartz Senior Supervisor Professor Paramjit Gill Supervisor Associate Professor The University of British Columbia, Okanagan Brian Naicker Internal Examiner Director, CODE David Stephens External Examiner Professor Department of Mathematics and Statistics McGill University Date Defended: 16 December 2015 ii Abstract This thesis consists of a compilation of three research papers and a non-statistical essay. Chapter 2 considers the decision problem of when to declare during the third innings of a test cricket match. There are various factors that affect the decision of the declaring team including the target score, the number of overs remaining, the relative desire to win versus draw, and the scoring characteristics of the particular match. Decision rules are developed and these are assessed against historical matches. We observe that there are discrepancies between the optimal time to declare and what takes place in practice.
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