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bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.20.427508; this version posted January 21, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 1 Title: Characterising the spatio-temporal threats, conservation hotspots, and conservation 2 gaps for the most extinction-prone bird family (Aves: Rallidae). 3 4 Authors: Lucile Lévêquea*, Jessie C. Buettela,b, Scott Carvera, Barry W. Brooka,b 5 ([email protected] ; [email protected] ; [email protected]) 6 7 a School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 8 7001, Australia 9 b ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage (CABAH), Australia 10 11 *corresponding author: [email protected], School of Natural Sciences, University 12 of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia. (Ph:) +61 473 446 744 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.20.427508; this version posted January 21, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 13 ABSTRACT 14 With thousands of vertebrate species now threatened with extinction, there is an urgent need 15 to understand and mitigate the causes of wildlife collapse. As distinct evolutionary clades can 16 follow different routes to endangerment, there is value in taxon-specific analyses when 17 assessing species’ vulnerability to threats and identifying gaps in conservation actions. Rails 18 (Aves: Rallidae), being the most extinction-prone bird Family globally, and with one third of 19 extant rail species now threatened or near-threatened, are an emphatic case in point. Yet even 20 for this well-studied group, there is uncertainty in our understanding of what factors might be 21 causing this vulnerability, whether the current threats are consistent with those that led to 22 recent extinctions, and ultimately, what conservation actions might be necessary to mitigate 23 further losses. Here, we undertook a global synthesis of the temporal and spatial threat 24 patterns for Rallidae and determined conservation priorities and gaps. We found two key 25 pathways in the threat pattern for rails. One follows the same trajectory as extinct rails, where 26 island endemic and flightless rails are most threatened, mainly due to invasive predators. The 27 second, created by the recent diversification of anthropogenic activities, involves continental 28 rails (generally in the Neotropics), threatened most commonly by agriculture, natural-system 29 modifications and residential and commercial development. Conservation efforts around 30 most-at-risk species should be adapted according to the most relevant geographic scale 31 (bioregions or countries), and principal locality type of the population (continental or island 32 endemic). Indonesia, the U.S.A., the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Cuba were the 33 priority countries identified by our classification system incorporating species’ unique 34 evolutionary features and level of endangerment, but also among the countries that lack 35 conservation actions the most. Future efforts should predominantly target improvements in 36 ecosystem protection and management, as well as ongoing research and monitoring. 37 Forecasting the impacts of climate change on island endemic rails and disentangling the bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.20.427508; this version posted January 21, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 38 specific roles of extrinsic and intrinsic traits (like flightlessness), will be particularly valuable 39 avenues of research for improving our forecasts of rail vulnerability. 40 41 42 INTRODUCTION 43 Up to a million species are now threatened with extinction, with many more predicted within 44 the next decade (IPBES, 2019). Along with the unprecedent decline in avifauna abundance, 45 including in once common species (e.g. in North America, Rosenberg et al., 2019) the need 46 to understand and mitigate the causes of these biotic contractions is urgent if we wish to avert 47 a major loss of species and ecosystem integrity this century. As the vulnerability to different 48 threats varies across taxa (e.g., between different bird families; Owens & Bennett, 2000), 49 there is value in taxon-specific analyses to inform conservation policy and decision making. 50 This has been done for several bird groups including ducks, geese and swans (Green, 1996), 51 sea birds (Croxall et al., 2012; Spatz et al., 2014; Dias et al., 2019) and parrots (Olah et al., 52 2016), but gaps exist for many bird taxa, including the rail family. 53 Rails (Aves: Rallidae) are a widespread bird family, ecologically diverse and 54 inhabiting most habitats worldwide. They are also the most extinction-prone bird family, with 55 54 to 92% of all species going extinct after their first contact with humans during the mid- 56 Holocene (representing between 200 and 2,000 estimated extinct species; Steadman, 1995; 57 Curnutt & Pimm, 2001) They went through a second wave of extinction starting in the 16th 58 century when European settlers spread worldwide. In this recent extinction wave, they were 59 once again the most represented bird family in the extinct species assemblage (15%, 24 60 species; BirdLife International, 2018). Five rails have gone extinct in the last 100 years 61 (Hypotaenidia pacifica, Porphyrio paepae, Zapornia palmeri, Hypotaenidia wakensis, and bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.20.427508; this version posted January 21, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 62 Hypotaenidia poeciloptera) and the most recent extinction event was recognised in 1994 63 (IUCN, 2019). 64 As the magnitude, diversity and global reach of anthropogenic activities increase, 65 species can be impacted by an amplified range of pressures and stressors – the IUCN Red 66 List now references 38 different types of threats (IUCN, 2019). As an already extinction- 67 prone bird family, Rallidae could be particularly vulnerable to contemporary threats and 68 continue on their trajectory to extinction. Of the 144 recognised extant species of Rallidae, 13 69 are near-threatened and 35 are threatened (Vulnerable, Endangered or Critically endangered; 70 IUCN, 2019). To date, our understanding of historical threats and causes of extinctions in 71 rails has been limited and their pattern of endangerment has not been clearly characterised 72 either spatially (where extinct/threatened species are distributed) or temporally (with respect 73 to changes in threat patterns between extinct and contemporary species). Here we provide 74 the first such descriptive assessment for Rallidae. We have three main aims: i) characterise 75 the pattern of threats (historical and modern), focusing on four different spatial scales 76 (globally, on continents, for island endemics and between bioregions); ii) track the time 77 course of species’ conservation status (IUCN status) and gaps in conservation programs, and 78 iii) identify ‘conservation hotspots’ for rails by creating a ranking system using rails’ 79 conservation values and level of endangerment, so as to identify priority countries and 80 bioregions. 81 bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.20.427508; this version posted January 21, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. 82 METHODS 83 Database compilation 84 We compiled a database for all 144 species of extant rails (including 42 island endemic 85 species) using the 2019 version of the International Union for Conservation of Nature 86 (IUCN) Red List (IUCN, 2019) and the ‘Guide to the Rails, Crakes, Gallinules and Coots of 87 the world’ (Taylor & van Perlo, 1998). We used the taxonomic classification followed by the 88 IUCN which included the rallid family of Sarothruridae (some authors consider it separate 89 from the Rallidae family, see Garcia-R. et al., 2014; Garcia-R et al., 2020). The Sarothruridae 90 family contains 15 species, including two threatened species, and is mostly present in the 91 Afrotropics. In preliminary analyses we evaluated the effect of excluding this group, finding 92 no major effect on results or their interpretations (except a minor effect of Threat rank of 93 countries, see Table S1) and, thus, elected to retain the Sarothruridae in the Rallidae family. 94 Species considered ‘Data deficient’ were excluded from the analysis (Table S2). Similarly, 95 the New Caledonian rail (Gallirallus lafresnayanus) and the Samoan moorhen (Pareudiastes 96 pacificus) are two ‘Critically endangered’ rail species that have not been seen with certainty 97 since the 19th century and are suspected to be extinct (IUCN, 2019); they were also excluded 98 from our analysis. We considered island endemic species as those restricted to one or a group 99 of adjacent islands. 100 101 Spatial and temporal patterns of threats 102 Using this database, we firstly described the number of threats impacting threatened species 103 for different spatial scales (globally, on continents, on islands). For our analysis of threat 104 diversity, we used the threats’ first sub-category as the level of threat (e.g., a rail being 105 impacted by sub-categories ‘5.1.