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Application of SLAMM to Coastal Connecticut Draft Report

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Application of SLAMM to Coastal Connecticut Draft Report Application of SLAMM to Coastal Connecticut Draft Report Prepared for: New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission Lowell, MA Emily Bird Project Manager Environmental Analyst Prepared by: Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. Jonathan Clough President Amy Polaczyk Research Associate Marco Propato Research Associate NEIWPCC Report #TBD NEIWPCC Contract 2013-022 June 16, 2014 NOTICE This report was prepared by Warren Pinnacle Consulting, Inc. in the course of performing work contracted for and sponsored by the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission (hereafter NEIWPCC). The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of NEIWPCC or the State of Connecticut, and reference to any specific product, service, process, or method does not constitute an implied or expressed recommendation or endorsement of it. Further, NEIWPCC, the State of Connecticut, and the contractor make no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, as to the fitness for particular purpose or merchantability of any product, apparatus, or service, or the usefulness, completeness, or accuracy of any processes, methods, or other information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in this report. NEIWPCC, the State of Connecticut, and the contractor make no representation that the use of any product, apparatus, process, method, or other information will not infringe privately owned rights and will assume no liability for any loss, injury, or damage resulting from, or occurring in connection with, the use of information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in this report. Table of Contents Figure Listing .................................................................................................................. v Table Listing ................................................................................................................... vi Acronyms and Abbreviations List .................................................................................. viii 1 Background .............................................................................................................. 1 2 Methods.................................................................................................................... 2 2.1 Study Area ......................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Input Raster Preparation...................................................................................................... 3 2.2.1 Elevation Data ........................................................................................................... 4 2.2.2 Elevation correction.................................................................................................... 5 2.2.3 Wetland Layers and Crosswalk to SLAMM .................................................................. 6 2.2.4 Dikes and Impoundments ............................................................................................ 7 2.2.5 Percent Impervious ..................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Model Timesteps ................................................................................................................ 9 2.4 Sea Level Rise Scenarios .................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Historic sea level rise rates ................................................................................................ 10 2.6 Tide Ranges ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.7 Salt Elevation................................................................................................................... 11 2.8 Accretion Rates ................................................................................................................ 12 2.8.1 Available accretion rate data ..................................................................................... 13 2.8.2 Irregularly-flooded marsh ......................................................................................... 15 2.8.3 Regularly-flooded Marsh .......................................................................................... 15 2.8.3.1 Suspended Sediment .............................................................................................. 16 2.8.3.2 Marsh Biomass ..................................................................................................... 17 2.8.3.3 MEM Calibration Results. ...................................................................................... 17 2.8.4 Accretion for Other Wetlands .................................................................................... 18 2.9 Erosion Rates ................................................................................................................... 19 2.10 Model Calibration Approach ............................................................................................. 19 2.11 Model Setup .................................................................................................................... 23 2.11.1 Area 1 - Fairfield County .......................................................................................... 24 2.11.1.1 Fairfield County Site Description ............................................................................ 24 2.11.1.2 Fairfield County Site Parameters ............................................................................ 25 Application of SLAMM to Coastal Connecticut iii 2.11.1.3 Fairfield County Site Calibration ............................................................................ 27 2.11.2 Area 2 - New Haven and Middlesex Counties ............................................................. 30 2.11.2.1 New Haven and Middlesex Counties Site Description .............................................. 30 2.11.2.2 New Haven and Middlesex Counties Site Parameters ............................................... 30 2.11.2.3 New Haven and Middlesex Counties Site Calibration ............................................... 33 2.11.3 Area 3 - New London County .................................................................................... 35 2.11.3.1 New London County Site Description ..................................................................... 35 2.11.3.2 New London County Site Parameters ...................................................................... 36 2.11.3.3 New London County Site Calibration ...................................................................... 37 3 Results and Discussion ............................................................................................ 42 3.1 Entire Study Area ............................................................................................................. 42 3.2 Southwest Coast Watershed .............................................................................................. 46 3.3 Housatonic River Watershed ............................................................................................. 53 3.4 South Central Coast Watershed ......................................................................................... 57 3.5 Connecticut River Watershed ............................................................................................ 63 3.6 Southeast Coast Watershed ............................................................................................... 67 3.7 Thames Watershed ........................................................................................................... 72 3.8 Pawcatuck Watershed (CT portion) .................................................................................... 75 4 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 78 Literature Cited ............................................................................................................. 80 Appendix A: GIS Methods ............................................................................................. 83 Appendix B: Great Diurnal Tide Ranges in CT (m) ......................................................... 85 Appendix C: Comprehensive Tables of Input Parameters ................................................ 86 Appendix D: Tables of Results by County ....................................................................... 89 Application of SLAMM to Coastal Connecticut iv Figure Listing Figure 1. Project study area broken into the three individual SLAMM projects. ....................................... 2 Figure 2. Elevation sources for Connecticut .......................................................................................... 4 Figure 3. VDATUM-derived correction values ..................................................................................... 6 Figure 4. Sea level rise scenarios simulated using SLAMM compared to the General Climate Model and Rapid Ice Melt model predictions. ........................................................................................ 10 Figure 5. Great Diurnal Tide Range to 30-Day Inundation Height/Salt Elevation relationship derived from NOAA ............................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 6. Locations of Available Accretion Data in Coastal CT. .........................................................
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