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Trade Effect of a Single Currency in East Africa Rodgers Mukwaya Clemson University, Rogers [email protected]

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Trade Effect of a Single Currency in East Africa Rodgers Mukwaya Clemson University, Rogers Mukwaya@Yahoo.Com Clemson University TigerPrints All Dissertations Dissertations 5-2009 Trade Effect of a Single Currency in East Africa Rodgers Mukwaya Clemson University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Mukwaya, Rodgers, "Trade Effect of a Single Currency in East Africa" (2009). All Dissertations. 371. https://tigerprints.clemson.edu/all_dissertations/371 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Dissertations at TigerPrints. It has been accepted for inclusion in All Dissertations by an authorized administrator of TigerPrints. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Trade Effect of a Single Currency in East Africa A Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of Clemson University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Applied Economics by Rodgers Mukwaya April 2009 Accepted by: James Nyankori, Committee Chair Charles E. Curtis, Jr Michael D. Hammig Kenneth L. Robinson i ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a single currency policy for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda on the volume, value and direction of trade and the distribution of welfare changes between these countries. A single-commodity (maize), multi-country spatial equilibrium model was used to evaluate the possible trade and welfare effects of the proposed single currency. Simulation results show higher levels of aggregate regional production with increased production in Uganda and decreased production in Kenya and Tanzania. The results also show increased aggregate trade in the region, the value of exports from Uganda to Kenya increased by 12%, while export values from Tanzania to Kenya decreased by 25%. The results indicate that a single currency will result in a regional net welfare gain however the distribution of these gains will not be uniform across the region. ii DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my Dad, Joseph Mukwaya for all the love and for always supporting my dreams. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank everyone who has supported in my stay at Clemson University. Special thanks go to my advisor Dr J.C Nyankori, who made it possible for me to join and successfully complete this PhD program. I am grateful to the members for my dissertation committee, Dr Michael Hammig, Dr. Kenneth Robinson and Dr Charles Curtis. I am also grateful to Ms Rose Martinez for giving me the opportunity to become a good teacher. I am grateful to all my friends at Clemson, most especially Kendra, Kafui , Veronica, Evarist, Anusha , Kweku and Erecia for all their support. Finally I would like to thank all the members of my family, Mr. and Ms Joseph Mukwaya, Ms Judith Busulwa, Ssanyu, Winnie, Gloria, Charles, Martin and Jacinta for all their support and unconditional love. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TITLE PAGE....................................................................................................................i ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................ii DEDICATION................................................................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..............................................................................................iv LIST OF TABLES.........................................................................................................vii LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................viii CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................1 Theoretical Model....................................................................................3 Organization of the Study ........................................................................7 II. BACKGROUND...........................................................................................8 Foreign Exchange Markets in Kenya Tanzania and Uganda ................13 Agricultural Food and Maize Production ..............................................31 III. LITERATURE REVIEW............................................................................47 IV. METHODOLOGY......................................................................................50 East Africa Model..................................................................................53 Data........................................................................................................54 V. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION................................................................55 v Table of Contents (Continued) Page Results....................................................................................................55 Conclusion .............................................................................................59 Recommended Areas for Future Studies ...............................................61 APPENDICES ...............................................................................................................62 A: Notation Used in the GAMS Model ............................................................63 B: Specification of the GAMS Model .............................................................65 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................69 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 2.1 Population level and Distribution: Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 2006....................................................................................8 2.2 The composition of GDP and Labor Force Profile, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 2006 .................................................................10 2.3 Intra-Regional Trade Pattern: Bilateral Exports of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 2006 ..................................................................10 2.4 Global Export Concentrations: Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 2006 ..................................................................11 5.1 Optimal Maize Production, Trade, Consumption and Prices: East African National and Single Currency Scenarios ..................................55 5.2 Quantity of Maize Production, Consumption and Trade: East African National and Single Currency Scenarios ..................................57 5.3 Value of Maize Production, Consumption and Trade: East African National and Single Currency Scenarios ..................................58 5.4 Optimal Maize Prices and Regional Net Welfare in National and Single Currency Scenarios ...............................................59 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1.1 Spatial Price Equilibrium with Transfer and Transactions Costs...................................................................................4 1.2 Reduced Transaction Costs ...........................................................................5 1.3 Effect of Price Risk on Supply Curves and Market Equilibria ....................................................................................7 2.1 Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 1988 - 2003 .......................................9 2.2 Trade (Imports and Exports) as Percentage of Gross Domestic Product for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 1990 - 2003 .....................................12 2.3 Current Account Balance as Percentage of Gross Domestic Product for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, 1990 - 2003 .....................................13 2.4 Kenya Shilling - U.S. Dollar, Tanzania Shilling - U.S. Dollar and Uganda Shilling - U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates: January, 2005 - December, 2007 ..........................................................15 2.5 Kenya Shilling - Euro, Tanzania Shilling - Euro and Uganda Shilling - Euro Exchange Rates: January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................16 2.6 Tanzania Shilling – Kenya Shilling and Uganda Shilling – Kenya Shilling Exchange Rates: January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................17 2.7 Kenya Shilling – Tanzania Shilling and Uganda Shilling – Tanzania Shilling Exchange Rates: January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................18 2.8 Kenya Shilling – Uganda Shilling and Tanzania Shilling – Uganda Shilling Exchange Rates: January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................19 viii List of Figures (continued) Figure Page 2.9 Kenya Shilling - U.S. Dollar, Tanzania Shilling - U.S. Dollar and Uganda Shilling - U.S. Dollar: First Differences, January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................21 2.10 Kenya Shilling - Euro, Tanzania Shilling - Euro and Uganda Shilling - Euro: First Differences, January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................22 2.11 Tanzania Shilling - Kenya Shilling and Uganda Shilling - Kenya Shilling: First Differences, January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................23 2.12 Kenya Shilling - Tanzania Shilling and Uganda Shilling - Tanzania Shilling: First Differences, January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................24 2.13 Kenya Shilling - Uganda Shilling and Tanzania Shilling - Uganda Shilling: First Differences, January, 2005 - December, 2007 ...........................................................25
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