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Press Release The National Institute of Economic and Social Research announces the appointment of two Research Directors *FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE* The National Institute of Economic and Social Research announces the appointment of two Research Directors: Professor Roger Farmer (UCLA, visiting Warwick) has been appointed Research Director (macroeconomics). He is an internationally prominent macroeconomist and works on the sources of business cycle fluctuations. In 2013, he was the Senior Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England. He has previously held positions at the University of Pennsylvania, The European University Institute and the University of Toronto. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Fellow Commoner of Cambridge University, and Co- Editor of the International Journal of Economic Theory. He runs a blog at http://www.rogerfarmer.com/rogerfarmerblog Professor Peter Dolton (Sussex) is appointed as Acting Research Director (microeconomics). He one of the UK’s leading applied microeconomists and has worked extensively on education, health and labour economics. He is a member of the Doctors and Dentists Review Body, the School Teacher Pay Review Body and the Armed Forces Review body. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, a Research Fellow CESifo and a Research Fellow IZA. Peter has a long and honourable history of association with the Institute, most recently on the work on Pensions published in the August 2016 Review. Professor Jagjit Chadha, Director of NIESR, welcomed the appointments and said: “With the appointment of two such distinguished Directors of Research, at a time of heightened economic uncertainty, the Institute can strive to make an even more substantive contribution to economic and social policy-making in the UK.” ENDS --------------------------- NIESR aims to promote, through quantitative and qualitative research, a deeper understanding of the interaction of economic and social forces that affect people's lives, and the ways in which policies can improve them. Further details of NIESR’s activities can be seen on http://www.niesr.ac.uk or by contacting [email protected] Switchboard Telephone Number: +44 (0) 207 222 7665 .

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Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES SOME INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE FOR KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS WITHOUT THE PHILLIPS CURVE Roger Farmer Giovanni Nicolò Working Paper 25743 http://www.nber.org/papers/w25743 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 April 2019, Revised June 2019 We thank George Bratsiotis for inviting us to present this paper at the 9th annual conference organized by the Centre of Growth and Economic Business Cycles at the University of Manchester on July 5th-6th 2018. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve System, or the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2019 by Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolò. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics without the Phillips Curve Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolò NBER Working Paper No. 25743 April 2019, Revised June 2019 JEL No. E3,E4,F0 ABSTRACT Farmer and Nicolò (2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)- model outperforms the three- equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for determinate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K.
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Roger Farmer August 2016 CV
Curriculum Vitae Roger E A Farmer August 2016 Roger E. A. Farmer Curriculum Vitae August 2016 Current Contact Address, US Department of Economics, UCLA Box 951477, Los Angeles Email: [email protected] CA, 90095-1477, USA Citizenship • Dual British and U.S. Education • Ph.D. Economics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada, 1982 • M.A. Econometrics, Manchester University, Manchester, UK, 1977 • B.A. Economics, First Class Honors, Manchester University, Manchester UK, 1976 • Latymer Grammar School, London, UK, 1973 Employment • Visiting Professor of Economics, September 2016 – Present, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK • Distinguished Professor of Economics, 2010 – Present, Department of Economics, UCLA • Department Chair, July 2009 – December 2012, Department of Economics, UCLA • Department Vice Chair, 2006 – 2009, Department of Economics, UCLA • Professor of Economics, 1991 – 2010, Department of Economics, UCLA • Professor of Economics, 1998 – 2000, European University Institute, Florence, Italy • Associate Professor of Economics with Tenure, 1988 -1991, Department of Economics, UCLA • Associate Professor of Economics with Tenure, 1988 –1989, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA • Assistant Professor of Economics, 1983 – 1988, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, USA • Assistant Professor of Economics, 1982 – 1983, Department of Economics, University of Toronto, Canada • Lecturer in Economics, 1980 – 1982, Department of Economics, University
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Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
PRICING ASSETS IN A PERPETUAL YOUTH MODEL Roger E A Farmer¹ ¹Department of Economics, University of Warwick, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and UCLA NIESR Discussion Paper No. 485 Date: 31 January 2018 About the National Institute of Economic and Social Research The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is Britain's longest established independent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives, and the ways in which policy can bring about change. Seventy-five years later, this remains central to NIESR’s ethos. We continue to apply our expertise in both quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issues to current debates and to influence policy. The Institute is independent of all party political interests. National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench St London SW1P 3HE T: +44 (0)20 7222 7665 E: [email protected] niesr.ac.uk Registered charity no. 306083 This paper was first published in January 2018 © National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2018 Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model Roger E A Farmer Abstract This paper constructs a general equilibrium model where asset price fluctuations are caused by random shocks to beliefs about the future price level that reallocate consumption across generations. In this model, asset prices are volatile, and price-earnings ratios are persistent, even though there is no fundamental uncertainty and financial markets are sequentially complete. I show that the model can explain a substantial risk premium while generating smooth time series for consumption.
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Original citation: Farmer, Roger E. A.. (2017) Post-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 14 (2). pp. 173-185. Permanent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/98261 Copyright and reuse: The Warwick Research Archive Portal (WRAP) makes this work by researchers of the University of Warwick available open access under the following conditions. Copyright © and all moral rights to the version of the paper presented here belong to the individual author(s) and/or other copyright owners. To the extent reasonable and practicable the material made available in WRAP has been checked for eligibility before being made available. Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. Publisher’s statement: © Farmer, 2017 The definitive, peer reviewed and edited version of this Article is published in Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 14 (2). pp. 173-185. 2017. Published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/ejeep.2017.02.02 A note on versions: The version presented here may differ from the published version or, version of record, if you wish to cite this item you are advised to consult the publisher’s version. Please see the ‘permanent WRAP URL’ above for details on accessing the published version and note that access may require a subscription. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications Post-Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Theory Roger E.
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Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES PRICING ASSETS IN A PERPETUAL YOUTH MODEL Roger Farmer Working Paper 24261 http://www.nber.org/papers/w24261 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2018 I would like to thank Fernando Alvarez, Markus K. Brunnermeir, Zeno Enders, Emmanuel Farhi, Leland E. Farmer, Xavier Gabaix, Nicolae Gˆarleanu, Valentin Haddad, Lars Peter Hansen, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Robert E. Lucas Jr., N. Gregory Mankiw, Stavros Panageas, Nancy L. Stokey, Harald Uhlig, Ivan Werning and Pawel Zabczyk for their comments on earlier versions of the ideas contained in this paper. I would especially like to thank Leland E. Farmer for detailed and insightful comments. Thanks also to an anonymous referee of this journal and to the editor, Vincenzo Quadrini, who made a number of important suggestions that considerably improved the final version of the paper. I would also like to thank participants at the NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth Meeting in February of 2014, the NBER 2014 summer workshop on Asset pricing, the 2014 summer meetings of the Society for Economic Dynamics in Toronto Canada, and the Brigham Young University Computational Public Economics Conference in Park City Utah, December 2014. Earlier versions of this work were presented at the Bank of England, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Harvard University, the International Monetary Fund, the Barcelona GSE 2015 Summer Forum, the London School of Economics, the London Business School, Penn State University, the University of Chicago, the Wharton School and Warwick University. Thanks to C. Roxanne Farmer for her editorial assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Roger E. A. Farmer Curriculum Vitae April 2020 Warwick Professor Of
Curriculum Vitae Roger E A Farmer April 2020 Roger E. A. Farmer Curriculum Vitae April 2020 Warwick UCLA Professor of Economics Distinguished Emeritus Professor of Department of Economics, Economics University of Warwick University of California Coventry, CV4 7AL, Los Angeles CA 90095 United Kingdom United States Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Phone: +44 (0) 24 761 5008 Phone: +1 (310) 825 1011 Citizenship • Dual British and U.S. Education • Ph.D. Economics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada • M.A. Econometrics, Manchester University, Manchester, UK • B.A. Economics, First Class Honours, Manchester University, Manchester UK Employment • Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK, September 2017 – Present • Research Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, (NIESR) UK, November 2016 – September 2019 • Visiting Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK, September 2016 – 2017 • Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, UCLA, 2017 – Present • Department Chair, Department of Economics, UCLA, July 2009 – December 2012 • Department Vice Chair, Department of Economics, UCLA, 2006 – 2009 • Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, UCLA, 1991 – 2010 • Professor of Economics, European University Institute, Florence, Italy , 1998 – 2000 • Associate Professor of Economics with Tenure, Department of Economics, UCLA, 1988 – 1991 • Associate Professor of Economics with Tenure, Department
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Animal Spirits in a Monetary Model By Roger E.A. Farmer and Konstantin Platonov∗ We integrate Keynesian economics with general equilibrium the- ory in a new way. We develop a simple graphical apparatus, the IS-LM-NAC framework, that can be used by policy makers to un- derstand how policy affects the economy. A new element, the NAC curve, connects the interest rate to current and expected future val- ues of the stock market and it explains how ànimal spirits' influ- ence economic activity. Our framework provides a rich new ap- proach to policy analysis that explains the short-run and long-run effects of policy, without the assumption that prices are prevented from moving by artificial barriers to price adjustment. ∗ Farmer: Department of Economics, University of Warwick, National Institute of Economic and So- cial Research and Department of Economics, UCLA, [email protected]. Platonov: Department of Economics, UCLA, [email protected]. We would like to thank Gauti Eggertsson and Stephanie Schmitt-Grohéfor their discussion of our work. We also thank the participants at the Conference in Honor of Michael Woodford's Contributions to Economics, at the conference Applications of Behavioural Economics and Multiple Equilibrium Models to Macroeconomic Policy and participants at the UCLA macro and international finance workshops. We have both benefited from conversations with Giovanni Nicolò. 1 2 UCLA WORKING PAPER JANUARY 2018 In the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, a consensus developed among aca- demic macroeconomists that the problem of macroeconomic stability had been solved. According to that consensus, the New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic gen- eral equilibrium (DSGE) model provides a good first approximation to the way that monetary policy influences output, inflation and unemployment.
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How the Economy Works This Page Intentionally Left Blank How the Economy Works Confidence, Crashes and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
How the Economy Works This page intentionally left blank How the Economy Works Confidence, Crashes and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies ROGER E. A. FARMER 1 2010 3 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Copyright © 2010 by Oxford University Press, Inc. Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Farmer, Roger E. A. How the economy works : confidence, crashes and self-fulfilling prophecies / Roger E. A. Farmer. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-19-539791-8 1. Free enterprise. 2. Monetary policy. 3. Economic policy. I. Title. HB95.F37 2010 339—dc22 2009032289 987654321 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper Contents Preface xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 The Collapse of Northern Rock 1 Classical and Keynesian Economics 3 The Size of Government 5 Efficient Markets 6 The Roaring Twenties 8 The Great Depression 10 Stagflation 12 Why Fiscal Policy Is the Wrong Approach 15 What Governments Should Do Instead 17 A New Paradigm and a New Policy 18 Chapter 2 Classical Economics 21 How the Economic Pieces Fit Together 24 Do Markets Work Well? 28 A Mark, a Yen, a Buck, or a Pound..
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UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA Los Angeles
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Curriculum Vitae Roger E A Farmer July 2020 Roger E. A. Farmer Curriculum Vitae July 2020 Warwick UCLA Professor of Economics Distinguished Emeritus Professor of Department of Economics, Economics University of Warwick University of California Coventry, CV4 7AL, Los Angeles CA 90095 United Kingdom United States Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Phone: +44 (0) 24 761 5008 Phone: +1 (310) 825 1011 Citizenship • Dual British and U.S. Education • Ph.D. Economics, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada • M.A. Econometrics, Manchester University, Manchester, UK • B.A. Economics, First Class Honours, Manchester University, Manchester UK Employment • Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK, September 2017 – Present • Research Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, (NIESR) UK, November 2016 – September 2019 • Visiting Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK, September 2016 – 2017 • Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, UCLA, 2017 – Present • Department Chair, Department of Economics, UCLA, July 2009 – December 2012 • Department Vice Chair, Department of Economics, UCLA, 2006 – 2009 • Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, UCLA, 1991 – 2010 • Professor of Economics, European University Institute, Florence, Italy , 1998 – 2000 • Associate Professor of Economics with Tenure, Department of Economics, UCLA, 1988 – 1991 • Associate Professor of Economics with Tenure, Department
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COORDINATING MONETARY, FISCAL and FINANCIAL POLICY a Submission to the Treasury Committee of the UK Parliament
COORDINATING MONETARY, FISCAL AND FINANCIAL POLICY A Submission To The Treasury Committee Of The UK Parliament Roger E A Farmer, Research Director for Macroeconomics NIESR, Professor of Economics University of Warwick and Distinguished Professor of Economics, UCLA NIESR Policy Paper. 002 Policy papers are written by members of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to address a public policy issue. These may be evidence submitted to a public or parliamentary enquiry or policy research commissioned by a third party organisation. In all circumstances the NIESR authors have full editorial control of these papers. We will make all policy papers available to the public whether they have been supported by specific funding as a matter of course. Some papers may be subsequently developed into research papers. Date: March 2017 About the National Institute of Economic and Social Research The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is Britain's longest established independent research institute, founded in 1938. The vision of our founders was to carry out research to improve understanding of the economic and social forces that affect people’s lives, and the ways in which policy can bring about change. Seventy-five years later, this remains central to NIESR’s ethos. We continue to apply our expertise in both quantitative and qualitative methods and our understanding of economic and social issues to current debates and to influence policy. The Institute is independent of all party political interests. National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2 Dean Trench St London SW1P 3HE T: +44 (0)20 7222 7665 E: [email protected] niesr.ac.uk Registered charity no.
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Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve∗
Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve∗ By Roger E.A. Farmery Giovanni Nicolo`z Farmer and Nicolò(2018) show that the Farmer Monetary (FM)- Model outperforms the three-equation New-Keynesian (NK)-model in post war U.S. data. In this paper, we compare the marginal data density of the FM-model with marginal data densities for de- terminate and indeterminate versions of the NK-model for three separate samples using U.S., U.K. and Canadian data. We es- timate versions of both models that restrict the parameters of the private sector equations to be the same for all three countries. Our preferred specification is the constrained version of the FM-model which has a marginal data density that is more than 30 log points higher than the NK alternative. Our findings also demonstrate that cross-country macroeconomic differences are well explained by the different shocks that hit each economy and by differences in the ways in which national central banks reacted to those shocks. I. Introduction The Phillips curve (Phillips, 1958) was introduced into macroeconomics in the 1960s as a way of endogenising prices in the IS-LM framework that John Hicks (1937) and Alvin Hansen (1936) had developed to popularize Keynes' General Theory (Keynes, 1936). The Phillips curve, and its modern variant, the New- Keynesian (NK) Phillips curve (Gal´ı,2008), have fallen out of favour in recent years (Farmer, 2013, 2016) as unemployment has fallen to record low levels with no apparent resurgence of either wage or price inflation. In a recent paper presented at the 9th Manchester Conference on Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice, Farmer presented empirical evidence (Farmer and Nicolò,2018) in favour of an alternative to the New-Keynesian model.1 This alternative, the Farmer Monetary Model (FM-Model), replaces the NK-Phillips curve with a belief function.
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