Tuesday, 18 September 2012

Article No. 6481

Available on www.roymorgan.com Roy Morgan Federal Electorate Profiles Measuring Public Opinion for over 70 Years

Monday, 28 September 2015 New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gives immediate Consumer Confidence boost across Australia and seeks to conclude China-Australia Free Trade Agreement New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull gave an immediate boost to Consumer Confidence across a range of key demographics this week. Overall ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence jumped by a one-week record 9.2pts – from 105.3 (September 12/13, 2015) to 114.5 (September 19/20, 2015) following Turnbull’s swearing in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister on Tuesday September 15, 2015. This strong increase was repeated across the board. The increase to Consumer Confidence was broad-based with Consumer Confidence increasing strongly for both genders, across all age groups and all States & Capital Cities. In particular Consumer Confidence in

Australia’s two largest commercial centres increased more strongly than other cities: Sydney – 107.6 to

117.4 (up 9.8pts) and Melbourne – 104.4 to 119.2 (up 14.8pts). E E

E E This strong endorsement of the new Prime Minister from Australia’s consumers gives Turnbull a clear ‘mandate’ to pursue reforms to the Australian economy to ensure strong future growth and to make the structural adjustments necessary to make the Australian economy more competitive as it deals with the end of the commodities boom and the closure of legacy manufacturing industries – the manufacturing component of the Australian car industry is due to close entirely by the end of next year. Turnbull had said only days before becoming Prime Minister, he is a strong supporter of increasing Australia’s trade with the Asia-Pacific region and in particular Turnbull singled out the recently negotiated China- Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA). Malcolm Turnbull (as Communications Minister) said on September 9, 2015: “The Honourable Member’s (John Alexander OAM) electorate of Bennelong contains some of Australia’s leading technology businesses. Some of Australia’s leading research institutions. Both private and public sector – the CSIRO’s laboratories are in the Macquarie Park district in his electorate. “While the Member’s electorate does not contain an iron ore mine or a coal mine it is poised to benefit immensely from the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. The best Free Trade Agreement ever entered into, ever negotiated, by China with any comparable developed country. The achievement of the Trade Minister (Andrew Robb) has been remarkable and the future of our children’s jobs and our grandchildren’s jobs lie in the benefits that come from this agreement.” https://www.facebook.com/malcolmturnbull/videos/10153682429731579/

FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS Turnbull’s ascension to the top job in Australia last week has recharged Australian confidence and provides FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS new opportunities for Australia’s leadership to engage fruitfully across the Asia-Pacific region and build on the successes of the Abbott Government’s first two years. Although Australia had several contentious issues with nearest neighbour Indonesia under Tony Abbott – including the revelation of Australian spying on the Indonesian President’s wife (which actually occurred under the former Labor Government), the ongoing issues of people smugglers and asylum seekers arriving in Australia, the drawn-out drama surrounding the execution of convicted Australian drug smugglers Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran and controversies surrounding the export of live cattle to Indonesia, there were also several notable successes in the Asia-Pacific. Trade Minister Andrew Robb concluded important Free Trade deals with three of Australia’s largest trading partners – South Korea (4th largest trading partner), Japan (2nd) and finally China (1st) – as mentioned by our new Prime Minister. These three North-East Asian countries are amongst Australia’s top 4 trading partners along with the United States (3rd). In addition, Australia already has free-trading agreements in place with three other key Asia-Pacific countries – Singapore (5th), New Zealand (6th) and Thailand (9th).

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Turnbull boosts Consumer Confidence in key demographics Consumer Confidence September 12/13, 2015 (Before Turnbull was Prime Minister) – 105.3 cf. Consumer Confidence September 19/20, 2015 (After Turnbull became Prime Minister) – 114.5. Increase of 9.2pts in a week. Analysis by Age & Gender Men: 107.4 to 117.4 (up 10.0pts) Women: 103.3 to 111.6 (up 8.3pts) 14-24yr olds: 120.0 to 122.7 (up 2.7pts) 25-34yr olds: 107.5 to 117.5 (up 10.0pts)

35-49yr olds: 103.3 to 114.0 (up 10.7pts)

50-64yr olds: 96.5 to 111.0 (up 14.5pts) E E 65+yr olds: 102.6 to 108.5 (up 5.9pts)

FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS

Turnbull boosts Consumer Confidence in key demographics Consumer Confidence September 12/13, 2015 (Before Turnbull was Prime Minister) – 105.3 cf. Consumer Confidence September 19/20, 2015 (After Turnbull became Prime Minister) – 114.5. Increase of 9.2pts in a week. Analysis by State – Turnbull boosts Consumer Confidence in all States NSW: 107.4 to 116.0 (up 8.6pts) Victoria: 104.4 to 118.4 (up 14.0pts) Queensland: 99.0 to 108.9 (up 9.9pts) WA: 108.4 to 112.3 (up 3.9pts)

SA: 106.1 to 108.4 (up 2.3pts)

Tasmania: 123.8 to 128.7 (up 4.9pts) E E

FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS

Turnbull boosts Consumer Confidence in key demographics Consumer Confidence September 12/13, 2015 (Before Turnbull was Prime Minister) – 105.3 cf. Consumer Confidence September 19/20, 2015 (After Turnbull became Prime Minister) – 114.5. Increase of 9.2pts in a week. Analysis by City – Turnbull gives largest boost in Sydney & Melbourne Sydney: 107.6 to 117.4 (up 9.8pts) Melbourne: 104.4 to 119.2 (up 14.8pts) Brisbane: 102.6 to 109.3 (up 6.7pts) Perth: 107.1 to 111.1 (up 4.0pts)

Adelaide: 111.0 to 111.3 (up 0.3pts)

Mainland Capital Cities: 106.1 to 115.3 (up 9.2pts) E E Rural & Regional: 104.0 to 113.0 (up 9.0pts)

FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS

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Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Percentage Estimate Sample Size 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 500 ±4.3 ±3.8 ±2.6 ±1.9 1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4

Morgan Poll Accuracy — Recent Elections State & Federal (2006 – 2015) E E The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2013 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election. The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2013 Federal Election for the two-party preferred vote (L-NP: 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%) (sample 4,937 electors). The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors). The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors). The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. Note: The discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading. The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than

FOR FOR IMMEDIATERELEAS Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

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