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Los Angeles Board of Supervisors District 2 Survey Results

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Los Angeles Board of Supervisors District 2 Survey Results Los Angeles Board of Supervisors District 2 Survey Results 2020 Election Tulchin Research September 2019 Better Data. Better Strategy. September 2019 Methodology • Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors District 2 – 400 Likely March 2020 Voters Districtwide • The margin of error is ± 4.9% for the full 400 sample. – The margin of error is ± 6.93% for the split 200 samples • Live phone interviews conducted by professional callers in English and Spanish dialing both landlines and cell phones as well as interviewing a portion of respondents online through e- mails from the voter file. • Fielded August 19-22, 2019. Slide 2 September 2019 General Mood and Sentiments Slide 3 September 2019 Voters are Somewhat Pessimistic Toward LA County in General Do you feel things in Los Angeles County are going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction 39% Better – Worse = -4 Wrong Track 43% Don't Know 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Slide 4 September 2019 Elected Official Favorability Here’s a list of public figures and organizations. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of them, please indicate so. Fav-Unfav ID Donald Trump -84% -77% 6% 13% -71 97% The Los Angeles City Council -27% -7% 9% 56% +29 83% The Los Angeles County -24% -6% 9% 51% +27 74% Board of Supervisors Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti -22% -8% 29% 74% +52 96% District Attorney Jackie Lacey -14% -7% 7% 39% +25 53% LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva -33% -16% 6% 39% +6 73% LA City Councilman Jose Huizar -17% -9% 4% 26% +9 43% -100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slide 5 September 2019 BOS District 2 - Candidate Favorability Here’s a list of public figures and organizations. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of them, please indicate so. Fav-Unfav ID Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas -15% -4% 18% 46% +31 61% Holly Mitchell -7% -3% 8% 26% +19 33% Herb Wesson -14% -5% 11% 30% +16 44% Jan Perry -3% -7% 8% 31% +24 38% Sharis Rhodes -5% -2% 1% 14% +9 19% Jorge Nuño -6% -3%3% 19% +13 25% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slide 6 September 2019 Organization Favorability Here’s a list of public figures and organizations. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of them, please indicate so. Fav-Unfav ID Labor unions -5% 35% -14% 76% +61 90% (A) Police Officers -22% -9% 26% 71% +47 93% (B) Firefighters -4% 82% 95% +91 99% (A) The Service Employees -15% -8% 23% +35 65% International Union, or S.E.I.U. 50% (B) The Los Angeles Times -15% -5% 35% 78% +62 93% -100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slide 7 September 2019 Board of Supervisors Race Slide 8 September 2019 Wesson, Perry and Mitchell Statistically Tied in Initial Horserace As you may know, there will be a primary election next March to replace County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas who is serving his final term as Supervisor. If the March primary election for Los Angeles County Supervisor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE) State Senator Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, Non-Profit Director Jan Perry, Political Affairs Director Sharis Rhodes and Social Entrepreneur Jorge Nuño? (Leaners Included) 2nd Choice Votes Holly Mitchell 14% 12% Herb Wesson 16% 11% Jan Perry 16% 11% Sharis Rhodes 4% 4% Jorge Nuño 9% 8% Other 6% Don't Know 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Slide 9 September 2019 Voters Most Receptive to Biographical Description of Holly Mitchell Here are descriptions of some of the candidates running for Supervisor. After each statement, please indicate whether you find the description to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing or not at all convincing as a reason to vote for that candidate. (RANDOMIZE) (HOLLY MITCHELL) State Senator Holly Mitchell has always fought to help working families. She directed California’s largest childcare and child development organization, Crystal Stairs, that provides affordable childcare and early childhood education for families who need it. As State Senator, she has worked to expand access to affordable health care, protect a woman’s 45% 79% right to choose, reform our criminal justice system by investing in prevention and as State Budget Chair, balanced the state budget of nearly 200 billion dollars. As County Supervisor, Holly will work to provide more affordable housing, reduce homelessness, and reform our criminal justice system. (JAN PERRY) Jan Perry has a record of solving problems. She served as LA City Councilwoman for 12 years where she led innovative projects such as LA Live that helped rejuvenate downtown, brought in 15 billion dollars in 37% 75% investment and created 90,000 full-time jobs. Perry also added nearly 6 thousand units of supportive housing to shelter the homeless and Mayor Eric Garcetti chose her to run the Economic and Workforce Development Department that helps residents find good-paying jobs. (SHARIS RHODES) Sharis Rhodes is the Director of Political Affairs at the Southern California Black Chamber of Commerce and a single mother who 22% 68% has experienced homelessness. She wants to stop corruption and end homelessness. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very Convincing Total Convincing Slide 10 September 2019 Herb Wesson Bio Statement Least Receptive to Voters Among All Five Candidates Here are descriptions of some of the candidates running for Supervisor. After each statement, please indicate whether you find the description to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing or not at all convincing as a reason to vote for that candidate. (RANDOMIZE) (JORGE NUÑO) Jorge Nuño is a successful entrepreneur who grew up in South Central Los Angeles and has given back to the community by providing opportunities where ideas can grow by focusing on the arts, technology and education. He wants to inspire innovative solutions to 29% 64% problems such as creating jobs, ending homelessness and protecting immigrant families from the Trump Administration. (HERB WESSON) Herb Wesson is a former state assemblyman, Speaker of the Assembly and has served on the Los Angeles City Council since 2005 and as Council President since 2011. He has worked to make Los Angeles a better place to live, work and raise a family. Wesson has worked 20% to create good-paying jobs, raise the minimum wage, reform the budget and 63% how our city spends its money, and increase voter engagement and turnout. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Very Convincing Total Convincing Slide 11 September 2019 Holly Mitchell Doubles Her Support After Voters Hear Positive Bio Descriptions about the Candidates, Perry Doubles Up 2nd Choice Votes, Wesson Loses Support, As you may know, there will be a primary election next March to replace County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas who is serving his final term as Supervisor. If the March primary election for Los Angeles County Supervisor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE) State Senator Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, Non-Profit Director Jan Perry, Political Affairs Director Sharis Rhodes and Social Entrepreneur Jorge Nuño? (Leaners Included) Initial Vote (1st Choice) 2nd Choice Re-Vote (1st Choice) 2nd Choice Votes Votes Holly Mitchell 14% 12% 28% 17% Herb Wesson 16% 11% 14% 11% Jan Perry 16% 11% 16% 24% Sharis Rhodes 4% 4% 11% 13% Jorge Nuño 9% 8% 14% 13% Other 6% 3% Don't Know 34% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Slide 12 September 2019 Which Candidates Do 1st Choice Voters Support for 2nd Choice? As you may know, there will be a primary election next March to replace County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas who is serving his final term as Supervisor. If the March primary election for Los Angeles County Supervisor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE) State Senator Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, Non-Profit Director Jan Perry, Political Affairs Director Sharis Rhodes and Social Entrepreneur Jorge Nuño? (Leaners Included) 1st Choice Support Mitchell 19% 39% 43% Wesson 25% 36% 39% Perry 35% 17% 47% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mitchell Wesson Perry Other/Und *Data reflects Q9 re-vote results after bio-descriptions 2nd Choice Vote Slide 13 September 2019 Voters Prioritize Housing, Schools, Protecting Immigrants and CJ Reform for Next Supervisor Here are some descriptions of some of the candidates running for County Supervisor. Please indicate if each description makes you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely or much less likely to support that candidate. (RANDOMIZE) Will work to provide housing people can afford 59% 90% Will strengthen our schools 56% 85% Will protect immigrants and their families 48% 85% Worked to reform the criminal justice system 40% 83% Supported by social justice organizations 34% 80% Will represent the needs of the African American community 40% 79% Served as director of the largest childcare and child development organization in California 26% 73% Supported by labor unions 32% 71% Los Angeles City Council President 16% 57% Former Los Angeles City Councilmember 11% 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Much More Likely Total More Likely Slide 14 September 2019 Wesson Vulnerable to Numerous Heavy Hitting Attacks, especially Connections to Councilman Huizar Now, here are some statements made by OPPONENTS of some of the candidates for Supervisor.
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