Los Angeles Board of Supervisors District 2 Survey Results

Los Angeles Board of Supervisors District 2

Survey Results 2020 Election

Tulchin Research September 2019

Better Data. Better Strategy. September 2019 Methodology

• Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors District 2 – 400 Likely March 2020 Voters Districtwide

• The margin of error is ± 4.9% for the full 400 sample. – The margin of error is ± 6.93% for the split 200 samples

• Live phone interviews conducted by professional callers in English and Spanish dialing both landlines and cell phones as well as interviewing a portion of respondents online through e- mails from the voter file.

• Fielded August 19-22, 2019.

Slide 2 September 2019

General Mood and Sentiments

Slide 3 September 2019 Voters are Somewhat Pessimistic Toward LA County in General Do you feel things in Los Angeles County are going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Right Direction 39%

Better – Worse = -4

Wrong Track 43%

Don't Know 18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Slide 4 September 2019 Elected Official Favorability Here’s a list of public figures and organizations. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of them, please indicate so.

Fav-Unfav ID

Donald Trump -84% -77% 6% 13% -71 97%

The Los Angeles City Council -27% -7% 9% 56% +29 83%

The Los Angeles County -24% -6% 9% 51% +27 74% Board of Supervisors

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti -22% -8% 29% 74% +52 96%

District Attorney Jackie Lacey -14% -7% 7% 39% +25 53%

LA County Sheriff Alex Villanueva -33% -16% 6% 39% +6 73%

LA City Councilman Jose Huizar -17% -9% 4% 26% +9 43%

-100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slide 5 September 2019 BOS District 2 - Candidate Favorability Here’s a list of public figures and organizations. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of them, please indicate so.

Fav-Unfav ID

Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas -15% -4% 18% 46% +31 61%

Holly Mitchell -7% -3% 8% 26% +19 33%

Herb Wesson -14% -5% 11% 30% +16 44%

Jan Perry -3% -7% 8% 31% +24 38%

Sharis Rhodes -5% -2% 1% 14% +9 19%

Jorge Nuño -6% -3%3% 19% +13 25%

-50% -25% 0% 25% 50% Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slide 6 September 2019 Organization Favorability Here’s a list of public figures and organizations. For each, please indicate if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of them, please indicate so.

Fav-Unfav ID

Labor unions -5% 35% -14% 76% +61 90%

(A) Police Officers -22% -9% 26% 71% +47 93%

(B) Firefighters -4% 82% 95% +91 99%

(A) The Service Employees -15% -8% 23% +35 65% International Union, or S.E.I.U. 50%

(B) The Los Angeles Times -15% -5% 35% 78% +62 93%

-100% -75% -50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Somewhat Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Very Favorable Somewhat Favorable Slide 7 September 2019

Board of Supervisors Race

Slide 8 September 2019

Wesson, Perry and Mitchell Statistically Tied in Initial Horserace

As you may know, there will be a primary election next March to replace County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas who is serving his final term as Supervisor. If the March primary election for Los Angeles County Supervisor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE) State Senator Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, Non-Profit Director Jan Perry, Political Affairs Director Sharis Rhodes and Social Entrepreneur Jorge Nuño? (Leaners Included)

2nd Choice Votes

Holly Mitchell 14% 12%

Herb Wesson 16% 11%

Jan Perry 16% 11%

Sharis Rhodes 4% 4%

Jorge Nuño 9% 8%

Other 6%

Don't Know 34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Slide 9 September 2019 Voters Most Receptive to Biographical Description of Holly Mitchell Here are descriptions of some of the candidates running for Supervisor. After each statement, please indicate whether you find the description to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing or not at all convincing as a reason to vote for that candidate. (RANDOMIZE)

(HOLLY MITCHELL) State Senator Holly Mitchell has always fought to help working families. She directed California’s largest childcare and child development organization, Crystal Stairs, that provides affordable childcare and early childhood education for families who need it. As State Senator, she has worked to expand access to affordable health care, protect a woman’s 45% 79% right to choose, reform our criminal justice system by investing in prevention and as State Budget Chair, balanced the state budget of nearly 200 billion dollars. As County Supervisor, Holly will work to provide more affordable housing, reduce homelessness, and reform our criminal justice system.

(JAN PERRY) Jan Perry has a record of solving problems. She served as LA City Councilwoman for 12 years where she led innovative projects such as LA Live that helped rejuvenate downtown, brought in 15 billion dollars in 37% 75% investment and created 90,000 full-time jobs. Perry also added nearly 6 thousand units of supportive housing to shelter the homeless and Mayor Eric Garcetti chose her to run the Economic and Workforce Development Department that helps residents find good-paying jobs.

(SHARIS RHODES) Sharis Rhodes is the Director of Political Affairs at the Southern California Black Chamber of Commerce and a single mother who 22% 68% has experienced homelessness. She wants to stop corruption and end homelessness.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very Convincing Total Convincing Slide 10 September 2019 Herb Wesson Bio Statement Least Receptive to Voters Among All Five Candidates

Here are descriptions of some of the candidates running for Supervisor. After each statement, please indicate whether you find the description to be very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing or not at all convincing as a reason to vote for that candidate. (RANDOMIZE)

(JORGE NUÑO) Jorge Nuño is a successful entrepreneur who grew up in South Central Los Angeles and has given back to the community by providing opportunities where ideas can grow by focusing on the arts, technology and education. He wants to inspire innovative solutions to 29% 64% problems such as creating jobs, ending homelessness and protecting immigrant families from the Trump Administration.

(HERB WESSON) Herb Wesson is a former state assemblyman, Speaker of the Assembly and has served on the Los Angeles City Council since 2005 and as Council President since 2011. He has worked to make Los Angeles a better place to live, work and raise a family. Wesson has worked 20% to create good-paying jobs, raise the minimum wage, reform the budget and 63% how our city spends its money, and increase voter engagement and turnout.

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Very Convincing Total Convincing Slide 11 September 2019

Holly Mitchell Doubles Her Support After Voters Hear Positive Bio Descriptions about the Candidates, Perry Doubles Up 2nd Choice Votes, Wesson Loses Support, As you may know, there will be a primary election next March to replace County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas who is serving his final term as Supervisor. If the March primary election for Los Angeles County Supervisor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE) State Senator Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, Non-Profit Director Jan Perry, Political Affairs Director Sharis Rhodes and Social Entrepreneur Jorge Nuño? (Leaners Included)

Initial Vote (1st Choice) 2nd Choice Re-Vote (1st Choice) 2nd Choice Votes Votes

Holly Mitchell 14% 12% 28% 17%

Herb Wesson 16% 11% 14% 11%

Jan Perry 16% 11% 16% 24%

Sharis Rhodes 4% 4% 11% 13%

Jorge Nuño 9% 8% 14% 13%

Other 6% 3%

Don't Know 34% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Slide 12 September 2019

Which Candidates Do 1st Choice Voters Support for 2nd Choice? As you may know, there will be a primary election next March to replace County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas who is serving his final term as Supervisor. If the March primary election for Los Angeles County Supervisor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (RANDOMIZE) State Senator Holly Mitchell, Los Angeles City Council President Herb Wesson, Non-Profit Director Jan Perry, Political Affairs Director Sharis Rhodes and Social Entrepreneur Jorge Nuño? (Leaners Included)

1st Choice Support

Mitchell 19% 39% 43%

Wesson 25% 36% 39%

Perry 35% 17% 47%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Mitchell Wesson Perry Other/Und

*Data reflects Q9 re-vote results after bio-descriptions 2nd Choice Vote Slide 13 September 2019 Voters Prioritize Housing, Schools, Protecting Immigrants and CJ Reform for Next Supervisor Here are some descriptions of some of the candidates running for County Supervisor. Please indicate if each description makes you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely or much less likely to support that candidate. (RANDOMIZE)

Will work to provide housing people can afford 59% 90%

Will strengthen our schools 56% 85%

Will protect immigrants and their families 48% 85%

Worked to reform the criminal justice system 40% 83%

Supported by social justice organizations 34% 80%

Will represent the needs of the African American community 40% 79%

Served as director of the largest childcare and child development organization in California 26% 73%

Supported by labor unions 32% 71%

Los Angeles City Council President 16% 57%

Former Los Angeles City Councilmember 11% 49%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Much More Likely Total More Likely Slide 14 September 2019 Wesson Vulnerable to Numerous Heavy Hitting Attacks, especially Connections to Councilman Huizar Now, here are some statements made by OPPONENTS of some of the candidates for Supervisor. For each statement, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about that candidate. (RANDOMIZE)

(HW – LAW ENFORCEMENT) Herb Wesson won’t hold law enforcement accountable when they commit wrongdoing against innocent people, especially communities of color. Wesson has received thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from powerful law enforcement groups and then has turned a blind eye towards misconduct by law enforcement officers on record for various abuses 45% 77% including excessive force, racism and wrongful testimonies.

(HW – HUIZAR CORRUPTION) Herb Wesson is a close ally of LA City Councilman Jose Huizar and continues to defend the politician even though Huizar is now under investigation by the F.B.I. for corruption. According to the F.B.I. probe, while Herb Wesson served as LA City Council President, Huizar set up pay-to-play schemes to 42% 75% get developers to donate to his pet causes in exchange for voting to approve their projects.

(HW – AIDE) LA City Council President Herb Wesson’s senior aide is currently under investigation for corruption as part of the broader F.B.I. investigation into corruption on the City Council. This investigation is looking into an array of potential crimes 49% 72% conducted by city council members and other local government officials including bribery, kickbacks, extortion, and money laundering involving 13 different people.

(HW - HUIZAR METOO) Herb Wesson is a close friend and ally of LA City Councilman Jose Huizar who has been involved in various scandals. In fact, Wesson headlined a kickoff fundraiser for Huizar’s re-election just days after Huizar was sued 44% 71% by an aide for sexual harassment. Wesson then continued to defend Huizar even after another staff member accused Huizar of threats and intimidation after exposing Huizar for having an affair with an employee and giving that employee preferential treatment. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Very Serious Doubts Total Doubts Slide 15 September 2019

Negatives Attacking Mitchell and Perry are Less Impactful

Now, here are some statements made by OPPONENTS of some of the candidates for Supervisor. For each statement, please indicate whether it raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts, or no real doubts in your own mind about that candidate. (RANDOMIZE)

(HW – COUNCIL PRESIDENT) As Council President, Herb Wesson has done little to solve the pressing problems facing our community. Under Wesson’s watch, our quality of life has not improved as Wesson has failed to make any progress on homelessness, the cost of housing and rising rents, and traffic. And he did not do enough to prevent a teacher’s strike that crippled our local education system earlier 30% 63% this year.

(JP - INNEFECTIVE) It has been over a decade since Jan Perry has held elected office as an LA city councilmember where she did little to reduce rents, reform the criminal justice system plagued by corruption or hold police accountable for misconduct. If she couldn’t effect positive change on the city council, how can we 23% 50% trust her to do it as a county supervisor?

(HM - SACRAMENTO) Holly Mitchell is out of touch with the needs of our community. She has spent the last decade in Sacramento and is a politician who will 20% 42% put the needs of special interests and political elites before our local communities.

(JP - LADDER) Some critics of Jan Perry believe she has higher political aspirations than County Supervisor, including becoming the next Mayor of Los Angeles. She only 17% just moved to this district recently to run for this open seat and will eventually spend 36% more time running for the next elected office she sets her sights on while County concerns go unattended. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Very Serious Doubts Total Doubts Slide 16 September 2019

Mitchell Holds Up Best After Bios and Negative Attacks

Initial Vote Bio Re-Vote Final Vote (*Neg) 30% Mitchell, 28%

25%

Mitchell, 22% 20% Wesson, 16% Perry, 16% Perry, 16% Perry, 17% 15% Nuño, 15% Rhodes, 14% Mitchell, 14% Wesson, 14% Nuño, 14% 10% Nuño, 9% Rhodes, 11% Wesson, 8%

5% Rhodes, 4%

Holly Mitchell Herb Wesson Jan Perry Sharis Rhodes Jorge Nuño Slide 17 September 2019

Similar to Earlier Elements, Top Testing Statements in Support of Mitchell Include Women’s, Immigration, Housing and CJ Reform Messages

All Voters

Mean %10

(SPLIT A - WOMEN) Holly will be a strong advocate for women. She will protect women in the workplace by creating stronger policies that prevent sexual harassment and discrimination, ensure women receive equal pay for equal work and protect victims of domestic violence. She will push for affordable quality childcare and 7.60 28% pre-school, supports paid family leave and believes women should be part of any policy discussion affecting women.

(SPLIT B - IMMIGRATION) Holly believes we need to reform our broken immigration system. She supports providing a path to citizenship for families who have lived and worked here for years, pay taxes and pass a criminal background check. She supports efforts to help DREAMERs, students who came to this country 7.43 35% when they were young, believes we should keep families together and strongly opposes Donald Trump’s policies of separating children from their parents and his hateful rhetoric that casts immigrants as a threat rather than a strength of our nation.

(SPLIT A - HOUSING) Holly will take on the affordable housing crisis and fight to secure more housing for working families. She wants to build more housing people can afford and she will stand up to greedy 7.28 23% landlords and developers to protect renters from getting evicted, especially seniors and people with disabilities.

(CJ REFORM) Holly wants a criminal justice system that works for everyone, not just the wealthy and well connected, and prioritizes prevention over prison. She believes our justice system can be both tough and 7.26 24% smart on crime, which is why she led the effort to pass several criminal justice reforms to reduce prison sentences for non-violent drug offenses, increase police accountability, and end life sentences for juveniles.

Slide 18 September 2019

Mental Health and Working Families Messages Also Rated Highly in Terms of Intensity

All Voters

Mean %10

(MENTAL HEALTH) Holly wants to remove barriers to mental health care by expanding funding and access that put people first so they receive quality care that is affordable and helps get the most vulnerable in our 7.18 27% community the care and services they need to get back on the right track. (SPLIT A - ENVIRONMENT) Holly understands that threats to our environment are real and require action. Air pollution, wildfires, and droughts have serious health and financial consequences for local residents. She has been a leader on the environment and will continue her efforts to reduce greenhouse gas pollution, 7.13 21% increase the use of clean renewable energy like solar and wind power, and work to clean up our air and water to improve our health. (SPLIT B - WORKING FAMILIES) Holly has always fought to help working families and understands the challenges they face. She directed California’s largest childcare and child development organization, Crystal 7.11 26% Stairs, that provides affordable childcare and early childhood education for families who need it and will work to implement these same kinds of effective programs in our community as Supervisor.

(HEALTH CARE) Holly understands that many families are struggling with rising health care and prescription drug costs. That’s why Holly has expanded health care access for working families and supports providing guaranteed affordable health care to everyone that can’t be taken away through a Medicare For All system 7.04 23% that will reduce the cost of health care and prescription drugs for families. As Supervisor she will fight for affordable, quality, and preventative healthcare in our community.

(SPLIT B - HOMELESSNESS) Holly knows that more funding alone will not fix our homelessness issues. She believes it requires a collective response from the community to face a diverse set of challenges and 7.02 24% confront a broken system that needs to focus on getting people back on their feet for the long term.

Slide 19 September 2019

Key Demographics

Slide 20 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Party Democratic Republican NPP/Other Voters Voters Voters 35%

32% 30%

25%

20% 21% 21%

19%

17% 17% 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 13%

10% 11% 11%

7% 5%

0% 0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 21 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Ideology Progressive Liberal Moderate Conservative Voters Voters Voters Voters 50%

45% 45%

40%

35%

30%

25% 26% 24% 20% 22% 22%

18% 15% 16% 17% 17% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 12% 13% 10% 11% 10% 8% 5% 5%

0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 22 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Race White Latino Black Voters Voters Voters 35% 34%

30% 31%

28% 25% 25%

20% 20%

18% 17% 15% 16% 15%

10% 11% 10% 9%

7% 7% 5%

1% 0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 23 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Age Age 18-39 Age 18-54 Age 55+ Voters Voters Voters 35%

33% 32% 30%

25%

23% 23% 20% 19% 18% 17% 15% 16% 15% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10%

8% 5% 4%

0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 24 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Gender

Men Women 35%

30%

29%

27% 25%

20% 20% 19%

15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 10% 10%

8% 5%

0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 25 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Region AD 43/50/53/54 AD 59 AD 62 AD 63/64/66 Voters Voters Voters Voters 35%

30% 31%

28% 28% 25% 25%

22% 22% 20%

18% 18% 18% 17% 15% 15% 15% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 8% 5% 6%

0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 26 September 2019 Supervisor Re-Vote by Race/Age (Age 18-54) Younger Younger Black Younger Latino White Voters Voters Voters 40%

37% 37% 35%

33% 30%

25% 26%

20% 21%

19% 17% 15%

12% 10% 11% 11% 10% 9% 10% 9%

2% 0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 27 September 2019 Supervisor Re-vote by Race/Age (Age 55+) Older White Older Black Older Latino Voters Voters Voters 40%

35% 36%

32% 30%

27% 25%

23% 21% 20% 21%

18% 15% 14% 14%

10% 12%

8% 5% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 28 September 2019 Supervisor Re-vote by Primary Vote Propensity 1+/4 2+/4 3+/4 4+/4 Voters Voters Voters Voters 35%

30% 29% 28% 28% 27% 25%

24%

20% 21%

19% 18% 17% 17% 17% 15% 14% 14%

10% 11% 10% 9% 8% 8% 5% 4%

0% 1% Mitchell Wesson Perry Rhodes Nuño Slide 29 September 2019

Mitchell Shifter Groups (Shift to Supporting Mitchell)

Voters age 18-29 38%

Progressives 36% Latina women 35%

Voters age 18-39 34%

Democratic men age 18-54 33%

College+ age 18-54 33%

Latino voters age 55+ 33%

Progressive/liberal Democrats 32%

Non-City of LA 32%

AD 63/64/66 32%

Men under age 55 32%

Undecided voters (Initial vote) 32%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Slide 30 September 2019

Largest Undecided Voter Groups (Initial Vote)

Infrequent local election voters (Rarely/Never) 62%

AD 63/64/66 voters 58% White Democrats 57%

White voters age 55+ 57%

College Grad 56%

White voters 56%

Low-turnout voters 56% 0/4 previous elections)

White women 56%

Moderate Democrats 55%

White Men 55%

Voters age 30-39 54%

SD 35 voters 54%

0% 25% 50% 75% Slide 31 September 2019 Mitchell Positive Message Matrix by Key Groups

Here are statements made by SUPPORTERS of Holly Mitchell for Supervisor. On a scale from 1 to 10, please indicate how convincing each statement is as a reason to support Mitchell, with a TEN being VERY convincing and a ONE being NOT AT ALL convincing. (RECORD NUMERICAL VALUE 1-10 THEN GROUP ACCORDINGLY)

All Undecided/ Mitchell Millennials Latino Black White Voters Lean +Shifters (Age 18-39)

Working Women Immigration Women Women Immigration Women Families

CJ Immigration Housing Immigration Immigration Women Environment Reform

CJ Housing Women Environment Environment Women Housing Reform

CJ Working Homelessness Housing Homelessness Mental Health Immigration Reform Families

Slide 32 For More Information, Contact:

Ben Tulchin Corey O’Neil Ross Miletich W (415) 576-1072 M (415) 613-5480

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

www.tulchinresearch.com

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