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Retail Property Market in France

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Retail Property Market in France 2018 Review & 2019 Outlook RETAIL RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET FRANCE THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Overview ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT RETAILERS / PRODUCTS LETTINGS INVESTMENT • The gilets jaunes (“yellow • High-tech products • Retailers continue to • In 2018, investment in vests”) movement has continue to expand. prefer the busiest the French retail market exacerbated the French Other sectors driving the locations in Paris and came to €4.4 billion. This economic slowdown and market are sporting goods other large cities. amount is up slightly year hurt retail business in and leisure, household on year, thanks to a very Paris and other cities goods and interior décor, • Retailer vitality depends good fourth quarter and around France. and food-restaurants. on the appeal of specific the sale of two Monoprix cities. portfolios for more than • While inflation is expected • Discount chains also €750 million. to subside in 2019, and continue to expand, just • However, cost-cutting measures designed to as web-based brands. property strategies are • In all, there were 11 boost purchasing power now common to all transactions of more may increase consumer • With sales slowing, regions, and they continue than €100 million in spending, much depends fashion retailers are now to weigh on rental values. 2018, accounting for 55% on which way the social focused on cost-cutting of total investment in climate goes. measures. Zara and H&M • Retail closings and France. create spectacular stores openings occur with • Although demonstrations which provide an ever- greater rapidity as more • This trend has profited at the end of the year increasing range of tests, new locations, and mainly high streets (60% resulted in a decline in services, while sacrificing pop-up stores gain of investments), ahead of international tourist non-strategic sales points. ground. retail parks* (29%) and arrivals and reservations, shopping centres (11 %). 2018 is expected to have set a new record for tourism. Source: Knight Frank / *Retail warehousing. 2 Cover photo: Klépierre, all rights reserved – Hoog Catharijne, Utrecht, Netherlands – restaurants © Alfred Cromback THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Key figures HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE* INFLATION* HOTEL ARRIVALS* +1% in 2018* 91 in January 2019 +1.6% in 2018 +2.5% y/y at the end of October 2018 +1.1% in 2017 104 in January 2018 +1.0% in 2017 +11.4 % for foreign tourists Source: Banque de France Source: INSEE Source: INSEE Source: Paris Tourism Bureau *Annual increase / Forecast **Synthetic confidence index *Hors tabac *Number, in inner Paris SPECIALISED RETAIL SALES* LUXURY STORES AMOUNTS INVESTED* PRIME RENT (Zone A) -3.3% y/y in 2018 48 openings in 2018* €4.45 bn in 2018 €20,000/m²/year at Q4 2018* -3.9% in city centres 26 in 2017 +1.0% y/y €20,000/m²/year at Q4 2017 Source: Procos Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank Source: Knight Frank *In France *In inner Paris *In France *Champs-Élysées 3 Economic and political environment THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Economic and political environment Is a rebound coming? Confidence down Economic indicators for France Household confidence Annual growth in %, unless otherwise noted Composite index – Data adjusted for seasonal and working-day variations 130 Indicator 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 120 GDP 1.1 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 Inflation 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.7 110 Household consumption 2.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 100 Household income¹ 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 90 Unemployment (France) 10.1 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.5 80 juin-02 juin-05 juin-08 juin-11 juin-14 juin-17 déc-00 déc-03 déc-06 déc-09 déc-12 déc-15 déc-18 sept-01 sept-04 sept-07 sept-10 sept-13 sept-16 mars-03 mars-06 mars-09 mars-12 mars-15 mars-18 ¹Gross disposable household income / e: estimates mars-00 Source: Banque de France, macroeconomic forecasts Source: INSEE • The year 2018 ended on a negative note. Retail sales in France were hurt by the yellow vest movement and the violence that followed in its wake. As a result, the French economy slowed even further in 2018. • While inflation is expected to subside in 2019, and measures designed to boost purchasing power may increase consumer spending, much depends on which way the social climate goes. Moreover, household confidence has sharply declined. In December it reached its lowest level since November 2014, before recovering slightly in January. 5 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Economic and political environment Positive trend… …but reservations down Change in hotel occupancy rates Forecasts for airline reservations Paris, end-October each year, by nationality Paris, December–February 2019 compared with December–February 2018 2000000 +16% 1800000 1600000 1400000 -14% 1200000 1000000 +7% +9% -0,1% 800000 +16% -3,5% 600000 +11% 400000 +10% +7% -16% -12% 200000 0 USA UK Germany China Japan Russia 2016 2017 2018 Source: Paris Tourism Office / NB: red figures = changes over 10 months 2018 / 10 months 2017. Source: Paris Region Tourist Board / Île-de-France • Though there were fewer tourists in Paris in 2016, foreign visitors returned in force in 2017. Momentum continued throughout much of 2018, until the yellow vest movement began. International tourists were down 10% in December, especially Asian and American tourists. However, visitor numbers for 2018 are expected to set a new record. • Although events in November and December resulted in a decline in reservations for the beginning of the year, forecasts for 2019 remain optimistic. Tourism should turn positive again in March, provided that social unrest slows. 6 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Economic and political environment Well established in Montmartre and Le Marais Rate of Sunday openings in ITZ Luxury: +226% in three years! Paris, by ITZ, in September 2018 Rate of Sunday openings in ITZ Paris, by business sector, in % PALAIS DES CONGRES MONTMARTRE N/A 61,7% Food Luxury Other retailers HAUSSMANN CHAMPS-ÉLYSÉES 12,6% 38,5% VENDÔME 10,8% LES HALLES 38,1% 21% SAINT-GERMAIN 12% 19,2% MARAIS 16% 57,6% 41% 46% BEAUGRENELLE N/A 62% RENNES 4,9% BERCY N/A OLYMPIADES N/A September 2015 September 2018 Source: Direction générale des Entreprises / Retailers with fewer than 50 employees Source: Direction générale des Entreprises / Retailers with fewer than 50 employees • Although the boundaries of certain international tourist zones were redrawn in 2018, the principle of extending Sunday openings of retailers in Paris is now considered normal by consumers and retailers. Openings in the food and luxury sectors have been especially strong, growing from 12% in September 2015 to 41% three years later. • There are still significant differences between neighbourhoods. Sunday openings may be well established in Montmartre, in Le Marais and on the Champs-Élysées, but retailers in the Rennes and Vendôme ITZ are concerned about small Sunday crowds. 7 Retailer strategies and formats THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats Steady growth Mobile: more than one-third of sales Online sales revenue Mobile internet market share In France 100 50% 100% 90 90% 80 40% 80% 34% 70 33% 70% 65% 60 28% 30% 25% 60% 24% 22% 50 19% 94% 50% 40 20% 15% 40% 14% 14% 14% 13% 30 12% 30% 20 10% 20% 35% 10 10% 15.6 20.0 25.0 31.0 37.7 45.0 51.1 57.5 64.9 72.0 81.7 92.6 0 11.6 0% 6% 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2018 Sales (€ bn) Annual growth (%) Share of sales from mobile devices Source: Fevad Source: Fevad / Sites of iCM sample group • After three quarters of strong growth, online sales slowed at the end of the year, evidence of the impact of social movements on household consumption. In 2018, the sales threshold of €90 million was crossed, up 13.4% from 2017. The symbolic €100 million mark is expected to be reached in 2019. • According to a recent Fevad/CSA poll, 39% of online consumers use smartphones for their purchases (+15 points in two years). This way of shopping has become indispensable, and it combines the physical and virtual worlds (research before buying, finding stores, etc.). 9 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats The new retail balance Phygital Streamlining A flagship for Pure play retailers of shop networks opening stores everyone Store digitisation Targeted closures Social networks Repositioning of fast- fashion Better shopping Product experience segmentation Direct relationship withthe consumer Upselling Urban formats Customer service Personalisation Growth of DNVBs* Mixed-use projects (products / services) Single-brand stores Food and leisure *Digital Native Vertical Brands 10 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats The new retail balance Recent examples in Paris Tediber | Rue Sainte-Croix de la Bretonnerie Rossignol | Boulevard des Capucines IKEA | Boulevard de la Madeleine Salomon | Boulevard Saint-Germain Bande à Part | Boulevard des Capucines AMPM | Rue Étienne Marcel 11 THE RETAIL PROPERTY MARKET Retailer strategies and formats Fashion: between expansion and repositioning… Change in sales of textile and clothing Example of In % 2007-2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e Flagships Targeted closings Diversification / upscale trend 0.6 -1 -0.9 -2.9 +5% +21% 160 1,000 Change in sales, all Change in online Closings announced Number of leases channels sales 2019, worldwide to be renegotiated 2018, worldwide 2018, worldwide 2019, worldwide -15 Source: IFM Sources: H&M, annual report 2018 / Knight Frank • After a slight upturn in 2017, sales in fashion declined again in 2018. Performances in 2019 will likely stay negative, though the decline should be less pronounced than that of last year. • In such a context, fast-fashion retailers are quick to take cost-cutting actions.
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