Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Review of Emergency Response Provision:

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Contents Introduction ...... 4 Description of Cluster ...... 5 Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors...... 6 Deprivation ...... 9 Overall Cluster Risk ...... 10 Dwellings ...... 10 Special Service ...... 11 Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 12 Cluster Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 13 Building Usage as a Risk Identifier ...... 15 Other Building Risk ...... 16 Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 16 Hospitals ...... 17 Care Homes ...... 18 HMOs ...... 19 Hotels ...... 20 Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 21 Factories or Warehouses ...... 22 Further Education Establishments ...... 23 Licensed Premises ...... 24 Offices ...... 25 Premises Open to the Public ...... 26 Other Sleeping Accommodation ...... 27 Other Workplaces ...... 28 Public Buildings...... 29 Schools ...... 30 Shops ...... 31 Specific Risks within the Cluster ...... 32 COMAH Sites...... 34 Infrastructure Risk ...... 35 Roads ...... 36 Rail ...... 38 Aviation ...... 39 Ports ...... 40 Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) ...... 41 Flooding ...... 42 Existing KFRS Arrangements ...... 43 Future Development ...... 45 Population and Housing ...... 46 Major Developments ...... 46 2

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Chilmington Green ...... 46 Cheeseman’s Green ...... 47 Junction 10a of the M20 ...... 48

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Introduction In order to effectively assess the fire cover provision which is required to achieve the stated aims of the Authority an assessment of the risk factors for Kent and Medway needs to be undertaken. This document forms part of a suite of Risk Profile documents which segment the county into 19 geographically identifiable areas thereby allowing for a simplification of the assessment of the county wide risk.

Kent and Medway Fire and Rescue Authority (KMFRA) divide the county into 19 clusters based on internal working arrangements and the day to day work activities of its personnel. These clusters have been in use since 2011 to analyse and report incident activity, creating a wealth of information which is used to gain a deep understanding of activity within each cluster. It therefore follows that these clusters be used as a backdrop to provide risk information, as this allows for a continuity of analysis across the RERP2 project. The map below illustrates these clusters.

Information regarding risk factors has been obtained from a number of sources in order to provide a detailed level of risk for each individual cluster.

Much of the data within this document has been derived from information provided by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) a Government department charged with the collection and publication of statistics related to the economy, population and society. In March 2011 the

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

ONS conducted the most recent census of the population. It is this information which is used extensively throughout this document as the most accurate societal data available.

Each Local Authority within Kent and Medway has produced a Local Development Plan. These documents detail the strategic developments which are planned for their area of responsibility, and as such are referenced to give an indication of the future risk within the cluster.

KMFRA has significant experience in planning for emergencies in sites of specific risk; as such numerous sites have been identified through previous internal work. These sites have been included within this document.

This document describes the risk factors found in the Ashford cluster.

Description of Cluster The Ashford cluster covers a geographical area of approximately 132 square miles and has a population of 97,758 people, a figure which represents 5.66% of Kent and Medway’s population.

A map showing the cluster can be seen below.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Cluster Demographics and Population Risk Factors The most current and widely available information with which to highlight population risk factors is the 2011 census data. This data has been used to describe the community composition of each cluster.

The following charts and tables provide information regarding the population, age and gender of the community who live within the Ashford cluster.

The male to female ratio, age breakdown by gender and composite age breakdown are comparable to the Kent and Medway average.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Household types Total %

One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - Dependent Children 7,140 18.24

One Person - Other 5,623 14.36

One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - No Children 5,432 13.88

One Person - Aged 65 and Over 4,210 10.75

One Family - All Aged 65 and Over 3,244 8.29

One Family - Lone Parent - Dependent Children 3,004 7.67

One Family - Cohabiting Couple - No Children 2,289 5.85

One Family - Married or Civil Partnership Couple - All Children Non-Dependent 2,219 5.67

One Family - Cohabiting Couple - Dependent Children 2,072 5.29

Other - Other 1,354 3.46

One Family - Lone Parent - All Children Non-Dependent 1,229 3.14

Other - With Dependent Children 989 2.53

One Family - Cohabiting Couple - All Children Non-Dependent 205 0.52

Other - All Aged 65 and Over 129 0.33

Other - All Full-Time Students 7 0.02

Total households 39,146

Notes for Household types:

 One family households are categorised by the presence of children into, those with dependent children, those with non-dependent children only, and those with no children. Other households are categorised by the presence or absence of dependent children.  Married includes those in a civil partnership.  Households with dependent children include natural, adopted and step-children aged 0 to15 and those aged 16 to 18 in full-time education or training for work and living at home with parent(s) or grandparent(s) (excluding those who have a spouse, partner or child(ren) living in the household). Non-dependent children are all those living in a household with parent(s) or grandparent(s) who are not classified as dependent children.  Other households include: households of more than one family; households comprised of unrelated adults sharing; those including one family and other unrelated adults; all full-time student households; and households in which all occupants are aged 65 and over.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

In March 2011 there were 13,205 households with dependent children in the area.

This represents 33.7% of households in the area. In addition 25.12% of households were comprised of a single person.

These figures are comparable to the rest of Kent and Medway.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Deprivation The indices of deprivation are used to classify households based on four selected household characteristics:

 Employment  Education  Health and disability  Housing

The map below shows the deprivation levels for the Ashford cluster by output area when compared to the rest of Kent. Using the indices of deprivation as an indicator, the darker areas represent progressively more deprived localities.

There is a well-established correlation between dwelling fires and the measures of individual household characteristics detailed above.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Overall Cluster Risk Each Fire and Rescue Service has been provided with a tool with which to analyse risk within their area of responsibility. This tool is called the Fire Service Emergency Cover Toolkit, commonly referred to as FSEC.

FSEC can create a number of models relating to risk within the Kent and Medway area. The dwellings and special service models are detailed below as they provided the best representation of the work conducted by KMFRA and consist of incidents which present the highest level of risk to the community, namely Fires and Road Traffic Collisions.

Dwellings The dwellings model shown below shows the risks associated with the number of predicted fatalities within localised areas. This risk is derived from a number of factors including, but not limited to, demographic factors, historic incidents with the local area, the response provided by KMFRA into the area, and underlying risk derived from nationally recognised risk factors such as the number of pensioners or the amount of rented accommodation within the area.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Special Service (RTC) The special service model shown below shows the RTC risks associated with the number of predicted fatalities within a localised area. This risk is derived from the amount of RTC incidents within a predefined area of the road network and other geographical features where rescues may be necessary.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Geodemographic Segmentation Geodemographic segmentation refers to a range of methods which can be used to classify and characterise neighbourhoods or localities based on the principle that people who live near each other are likely to have similar demographic, socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics. This information allows KFRS to understand the demographics, lifestyles, preferences and behaviours of the people of Kent and Medway and thereby specifically target those who need us most.

KFRS uses a product called Mosaic Public Sector (Mosaic) as a source of this information. Mosaic categorises each property into fifteen top level categories each of which is further subdivided into further groupings, however these groups provide a level of detail which is not required for this document.

Each top level category is named and described in the table below.

Category Description Well-off owners in rural locations enjoying the benefits of Country Living country life Established families in large detached homes living Prestige Positions upmarket lifestyles High status city dwellers living in central locations and City Prosperity pursuing careers with high rewards Thriving families who are busy bringing up children and Domestic Success following careers Mature suburban owners living settled lives in mid-range Suburban Stability housing Elderly people with assets who are enjoying a comfortable Senior Security retirement Householders living in inexpensive homes in village Rural Reality communities Younger households settling down in housing priced within Aspiring Homemakers their means Residents of settled urban communities with a strong Urban Cohesion sense of identity Educated young people privately renting in urban Rental Hubs neighbourhoods Mature homeowners of value homes enjoying stable Modest Traditions lifestyles Single people privately renting low cost homes for the short Transient Renters term Families with limited resources who have to budget to Family Basics make ends meet Elderly people reliant on support to meet financial or Vintage Value practical needs Urban renters of social housing facing an array of Municipal Challenge challenges

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Cluster Geodemographic Segmentation The composition of the Ashford cluster can be viewed in the chart below along with the average composition for Kent and Medway.

18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

Cluster Kent and Medway

The composition of the Ashford cluster has significantly more than average Country Living and Aspiring Homemakers categories when compared to the average for the whole of Kent and Medway.

The cluster has fewer properties which fall into the Senior Security and Rental Hubs categories when compared to the average for Kent and Medway.

The map below shows the most prominent category which makes up a localised area of the cluster.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Building Usage as a Risk Identifier There is a well-established process embedded within Fire and Rescue Services nationally to recognise an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk posed by that building. As such research has been undertaken to gain as much information on building usage within Kent and Medway, and wherever possible a quality assurance process has been undertaken to verify this data. The first stage of acquiring this data was through the use of an Ordnance Survey Product called AddressBase Premium which is provided to KFRS under a public licence agreement. It provides a geographic dataset of addresses, properties and land areas where services are provided. By comparing known property types gained through fire safety inspections and operational intelligence with the information contained within AddressBase it has been found to be a suitable dataset to use when analysing risk data.

However, part of the established practice of using an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk involves Fire and Rescue Services recognising that approximately 80% of the total risk from fire fatalities involves buildings where people sleep. This 80% of total risk can be attributed to specific categories of building usage:

 Hospitals  Care Homes  Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs)  Hotels  Hostels

For this reason additional research and cross-matching has been undertaken on specific building usage types to ensure a robust dataset. This research has involved building on the work undertaken in a previous Review of Emergency Response Provision project and combining it with current information.

As an example of this work AddressBase lists 324 HMOs within Kent and Medway. Operational intelligence and fire safety records strongly indicate that there are significantly more HMOs within Kent and Medway than are recorded within AddressBase. The reason behind this may lie in the licencing scheme for HMOs which is conducted on a purely voluntary basis. It is suspected that only the licenced HMOs are recorded within AddressBase thereby giving a false impression of the number of this type of building in Kent and Medway.

Additional internal data has therefore been used to supplement the dataset for HMOs to provide a more accurate assessment of risk for Kent and Medway and the individual clusters.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Other Building Risk It is well established that the use of a building has a large impact on the amount of risk that the building poses to a community. This section details the usage of buildings other than dwellings.

Sleeping Accommodation Risk Those buildings which provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 80% of total other building risk due to people sleeping in them overnight. These buildings are:

 Hospitals  Care Homes  Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs)  Hotels  Hostels

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Hospitals A hospital is defined as an institution providing medical and surgical treatment and nursing care for sick or injured people.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the hospitals category within the Ashford cluster.

 Hothfield Brain Injury Rehabilitation and Neurological Care Centre, Ashford  The Hospice on the Hill, Ashford  William Harvey Hospital, Ashford

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Care Homes A care home is defined as a residential setting where a number of usually older people live, primarily in single rooms and with access to on-site care services.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the care home category within the Ashford cluster.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

HMOs A House of Multiple Occupation (HMO) is defined as a property that is shared by three or more tenants who are not members of the same family.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the HMO category within the Ashford cluster.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Hotels A Hotel is defined as an establishment providing accommodation, meals, and other services for travellers and tourists, by the night.

The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the hotels category within the Ashford cluster.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk Those buildings which do not provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 20% of total other building risk. These are:

 Factories or Warehouses  Further Education Establishments  Licenced Premises  Offices  Premises Open to the Public  Other Sleeping Accommodation  Other Workplaces  Public Buildings  Schools  Shops

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Factories or Warehouses The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the factories and warehouse category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include factories warehouses, mills and brickworks.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Further Education Establishments The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the further education establishment category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include colleges, universities and other such training establishments.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Licensed Premises The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the licensed premises category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include public houses, social clubs and bingo halls.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Offices The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the offices category within the Ashford cluster.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Premises Open to the Public The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the premises open to the public category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include leisure centres, theatres and crematoriums.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Other Sleeping Accommodation The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the other sleeping accommodation category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include police, fire and ambulance stations, and prisons.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Other Workplaces The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the other workplaces category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include vehicle repair workshops, quarries and storage depots.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Public Buildings The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the public buildings category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include libraries, museums and community centres.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Schools The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the schools category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include primary and secondary schools and day nurseries.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Shops The map below shows the locations of buildings which fall into the shops category within the Ashford cluster. Examples of this category include food courts, general retail and superstores.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Specific Risks with the Cluster KFRS has a process which identifies sites which pose a specific risk to the community should an incident occur at these locations. These sites are subjected to specific planning and training regimes in order to ensure KMFRA has the ability to respond correctly and effectively to the risks associated with these sites.

The Ashford cluster has 21 such sites.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Site Type Risk

Alder House Dwelling Medium

Ashford International Station Infrastructure Medium

Ashford (PHLS Thames) Public Health Laboratory, William Hospital Medium Harvey Hospital. Broomfield Residences Dwelling Medium

Charter House Office Medium

Coty Manufacturing Ltd Manufacturing Medium

County Square Shopping Medium Centre Cressfield Flats Dwelling Medium

Emmerich (Berlon) Ltd Manufacturing Medium

Givaudan (formerly Quest International) Manufacturing High

Godinton House Historical Medium

Heron House Dwelling Medium

International House Office Medium

Kent House Office Medium

Kingfisher House Dwelling Medium

Meadowsweet House Dwelling Medium

Novagas Ltd Explosives Medium

SRCL (formerly White Rose Environmental) Manufacturing Medium

Stourside Place Office Low

William Harvey Hospital Hospital High

Willow House Dwelling Medium

*Charter house is currently undergoing conversion to dwellings, at which point the risk assessment and tactical plan will be revisited.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

COMAH Sites The Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 1999 (COMAH) and their amendments 2005, are the enforcing regulations within the United Kingdom which are applicable to any site which stores or handles large quantities of industrial chemicals of a hazardous nature. The regulations operate on two levels which depend on the sites’ status, either Top Tier or Lower Tier sites.

The Ashford cluster has one Top Tier COMAH site; Givaudan UK Ltd and three Lower Tier COMAH sites; K & S Fumigation Services Ltd, Novagas Limited and Russell Laboratories Ltd, within its boundary.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Infrastructure Risk The risk posed by the clusters’ infrastructure can be broken down into four main areas:

 Roads  Rail  Aviation  Ports

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Roads The Ashford Cluster contains a significant amount of the County’s Major roads including the M20. The cluster also contains some major trunk roads including the A20, A28 and the A2070.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

There are 538 miles of carriageway within the cluster. The Ashford cluster has more Motorway and A roads when compared to the average for the rest of Kent and Medway.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Rail A number of rail lines pass through the Ashford cluster; including the High speed 1 track which passes through Ashford International station and provides rail access to Continental Europe.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Aviation There are no commercial airports within the Ashford cluster.

The greatest risk is posed by Kent and Medway’s proximity to London airports including Heathrow and Gatwick and the fact that Kent and Medway sits below the flight path for many International flights.

Kent and Medway have a long established aviation tradition and there are many small airfields for light aircraft throughout the county.

The map below shows the major airports in the South East of England namely:

 London Heathrow Airport  Gatwick Airport  London Biggin Hill Airport  London City Airport  Lydd Airport  Rochester Airport

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Ports Kent and Medway have a significant amount of coastline and as such numerous small ports and harbours. Most villages and towns along the coast contain a mooring location which coupled with the various inland marinas along the rivers of the county present a level of risk to the community.

The map below shows the major ports, harbours and docks within the Kent and Medway namely:

 Folkestone  Dover  Sheerness  Thamesport  Chatham  Ridham  Ramsgate  Whitstable  Dartford  Grain LNG  The Medway Ports

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) are sites which support plants, animals, protected species or natural habitats that find it difficult to survive in the wider countryside. These unique and varied habitats have developed over hundreds of years through management practices such as grazing and forestry, and require active management to maintain their conservation status.

The Ashford cluster contains SSSIs as shown in the map above, including;

 Wye and Crundale Downs  Hatch Park  Charing Beech Hangers  Hothfield Common  Hoad’s Wood  Orlestone Forest  Hamstreet Woods

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Flooding In recent years the risk of flooding has greatly increased. Below is a map showing the areas of potential flooding within Kent and Medway. It shows the chance of flooding from rivers and the sea presented in categories which take into account flood defences and their current condition.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Existing KFRS Arrangements The Ashford cluster contains four fire stations, Ashford, Wye, Charing and Aldington. Each station has a set number of resources which are based at the station, these resources can be crewed through different crewing systems and provide different capabilities as detailed in the table below.

Station ID Station Name Crewing Appliances W HRP 11 Ashford OC P 13 Wye OC P 14 Charing OC RP 15 Aldington OC P

OC = On-call

This crewing model uses firefighters who are called into the station when required from a remote location. These appliances are available either during the day, during the night or both as required by the Authority.

D = Day Crewed

This crewing model uses firefighters who are available at station during the day and on call at night. N.B. There are no Day Crewed stations within the Ashford cluster.

W = Whole time shift

This crewing model uses firefighters who are continuously available for deployment 24 hours a day and are based at station.

P = Pump

These appliances make up the majority of the fleet and provide the backbone of our response. They carry no specialist rescue equipment.

RP = Rescue Pump

These appliances are located at stations where it has been deemed that a requirement for specialist rescue equipment exists. They carry some specialist rescue equipment and can respond to most Road Traffic Collisions.

HRP = Heavy Rescue Pump

These appliances are located at strategic stations and carry specialist rescue equipment. They are able to provide a response to all incident types.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

The map below illustrates the area appliances can respond to from their base locations within 10 minutes. This includes the time period taken for the crews to respond into the station from another location, get ready and leave the station. This time period is known as turnout time.

The turnout time has been standardised as one minute for crews that are already on station and five minutes for crews responding from home or other locations.

Effectively, the turnout time reduces the distance an appliance can respond to within 10 minutes.

A number of specialist appliances are also based in the Ashford cluster these include:

 A Turntable Ladder (TL) which provides access to buildings over four floors  A Bulk Water Carrier (BWC) which can provide large quantities of water to an incident  An Incident Response Unit (IRU) which provides support to incidents where large numbers of people require decontamination.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Future Development The Ashford cluster encompasses the boundaries of three Local Borough Councils; Ashford, Shepway and Swale. The majority is covered by Ashford Borough Council with little development planned for the other areas.

Each local council is required to produce a Core Strategy Document under the National Planning Policy Framework which has been referenced to assess the projected development and associated future risk within the cluster.

The Ashford Local Development Framework identifies four broad growth areas:

 Ashford Urban Sites within the Ashford Growth Area  Ashford Town Centre  Chilmington Green  Cheeseman’s Green

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Population and Housing As with National trend predictions the population of the Ashford cluster is set to increase over the next ten years, necessitating an increase in available housing stock.

1,459 housing allocations have been identified within the Ashford Urban Sites.

A number of residential dwellings have also been identified to potentially being built within the Ashford Town Centre Plan.

Significant residential developments are identified at Chilmington Green and Cheeseman’s Green.

Major Developments A number of major developments have been identified within the Ashford cluster:

 Chilmington Greem  Cheeseman’s Green  Junction 10a of the M20

Chilmington Green

Outline planning permission was granted in October 2014 for a major new residential community that, subject to further planning consents, will see the development of up to 5,750 homes within the Chilmington Green development. This development will include the creation of additional schools and infrastructure, including the dualling of the A28 carriageway.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Cheeseman’s Green

Ashford’s Core Strategy (2008) identifies the broad area of Cheeseman's Green and Waterbrook to accommodate some 6,500 dwellings, 2,225 jobs and associated infrastructure and community facilities. The Cheesman’s Green development has been awarded Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project status.

RERP - Ashford Cluster Risk Profile

Junction 10a of the M20

The potential for new motorway junction (Junction 10A) on the M20 has been identified, located close to Ashford and the current junction10. The new junction is planned to be completed in 2018/19.