ISVEE/558

A qualitative methodology for import risk assessment of diseases in

Cunha EAP (1), Goncalves VSP (2), Longo LM (3), Carneiro CM (4)

(1) Ministerio da Agricultura, Pecuaria e Abastecimento, Brasilia, DF, Brazil (2), (3), (4) Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

Risk analysis is a science-based method to assist decision-makers make consistent and transparent arguments and decisions in face of uncertainty and natural variability. The concept of risk involves the likelihood of the occurrence of an adverse effect and the magnitude of its consequences. This study developed a methodology for qualitative risk assessment of the introduction of diseases by live aquatic animal importation and provides an analytical tool for risk management by the official veterinary authorities. The importation of post larvae of vannamei from the United States of America was used as a case- study. The proposed methodology is flexible enough to be adapted to assessing the risk of other aquatic animals, their products, by products and genetic material.

A quantitative methodology was proposed for the release assessment. However, the absence of data on prevalence and standard accreditation procedures in the exporting country, as well as published information on diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity, rendered the quantitative approach very speculative and led to a more conservative qualitative methodology, that estimated the release assessment as moderate.

As to the assessment of the risk of exposure and its consequences, the shrimp industry was broken down in different sectors, according to the production purposes. The country was stratified into several regions, taking into account compartment criteria.

The application of this methodology suggests that the risk of introduction of Taura syndrome in Brazil through the importation of post larvae of Penaeus vannamei from the United States of America is moderate.