Israel and the Middle East News Update

Wednesday, December 21

Headlines:  Dermer Calls on Trump to Move the Embassy to Jerusalem  UN Warns Palestinian Population Will Double to 9.5 Mil. by 2050  Cracks Deepen in Palestinian Politics as Abbas Clamps Down  Netanyahu: Looking to Absorb Injured Syrians from Aleppo  MK Ghattas: Visits to Security Prisoners—Out of Humanitarian Motives  IDF Wants to Acquire Surface-to-Surface Missiles  Amona: Peaceful Evacuation in Doubt If Court Nixes Delay  Russia, Iran, and Turkey Meet for Security Talks, Excluding US

Commentary:  Bloomberg: “Israel Needs Arab Friends More Than U.S. Embassy Move”  By Eli Lake, Columnist, Bloomberg View  Al-Monitor: “Rift Growing Between Israeli Arabs and Israeli Arab Party”  By Shlomi Eldar, Israel Pulse Columnist, Al-Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts December 21, 2016

Jerusalem Post Dermer Calls on Trump to Move the Embassy to Jerusalem Israel's ambassador to the US on Tuesday called on President-elect Donald Trump to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. At his annual Hanukkah reception, Ambassador Ron Dermer said such a move "would be a great step for peace," help Israel battle efforts to delegitimize the state, and "should have happened a long time ago." Democrats in the room, several of whom still serve in the Obama administration, were furious, questioning why Dermer was acting while the "body was still warm" of the current leadership. But Dermer said maintaining an embassy in Tel Aviv over Jerusalem was the equivalent of Israel keeping its embassy in New York. See also, “Dermer: ‘Moving Embassy to Jerusalem Would Be for Greater Peace’” (Arutz Sheva)

Times of Israel UN Warns Palestinian Population Will Double to 9.5 Mil. by 2050 A new UN study projecting rapid growth in the Palestinian population should serve as a “wake up call” to Israel and the international community, a senior UN official said Tuesday. The report said that without international attention, growth in the Palestinian population, particularly Gaza, will lead to an even greater crisis in unemployment, overwhelm a strained infrastructure and increase the lure of militant groups. “We are on a downward spiral, especially in Gaza, and things are getting worse by the day,” said Anders Thomsen, director of the UN Population Fund’s office in the Palestinian territories. “If that continues, you can of course only imagine that this will be an environment ripe for radicalization and for the conflicts, so I think that should be avoided.”

Ynet News Cracks Deepen in Palestinian Politics as Abbas Clamps Down Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has tightened his grip on power by stripping the parliamentary immunity of 5 lawmakers seen as opposing him, weeks after being reappointed chairman of the main political party. The move follows a decision by a Palestinian court last week to sentence Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah party member and vocal Abbas critic, to 3 years in prison over the disappearance of $16 million when he was in office several years ago. Dahlan has dismissed the sentence as politically motivated and "ordered by Abbas". All five of those who had their immunity from prosecution revoked are regarded as allies or associates of Dahlan.

Jerusalem Post Netanyahu: Israel Looking to Absorb Syrians from Aleppo The Foreign Ministry on Tuesday began exploring ways for Israel to expand the medical assistance given to civilian casualties in Syria, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday. “We see the tragedy of the terrible suffering of the civilians,” Netanyahu said. “We are prepared to take in wounded women and children, and also men if they are not combatants. Bring them to Israel, [we will] take care of them in our hospitals as we have done with thousands of Syrian civilians. We are looking into ways of doing this. It is being explored as we speak.” 2

Ma’ariv MK Ghattas: Security Prisoners Visits for Humanitarian Reasons MK Basel Ghattas of the , who is suspected of smuggling miniature cell phones to security prisoners in Ketziot Prison, said last night that he visited security prisoners for humanitarian reasons. A day after Attorney General Mandelblit gave authorization to launch an investigation against him, MK Ghattas was questioned yesterday under caution, on suspicion of conspiring to commit a crime, fraud and breach of trust, and violations of the Prisons Service Ordinance (bringing in a forbidden or dangerous object). Ghattas is suspected of bringing 12 miniature cell phones into Ketziot Prison and transferring them to security prisoners during his visit. In addition, the MK is suspected of transferring to the prisoners notes bearing coded messages. See also, “Police Show Israeli Arab Lawmaker Evidence He Smuggled Phones to Prisoners" (Ha'aretz)

Ma’ariv IDF Wants to Acquire Surface-to-Surface Missiles The security establishment is carrying out preparatory work for purchasing surface-to-surface missiles. “I want to see a significant force in the IDF with warheads of 400-450 kilograms for a very long range,” said a security official yesterday. “This is significant in terms of the army’s structure. We have to have the ability to strike from afar at a 200-kilometer radius.” The Defense Ministry wants to purchase a significant number of such missiles, the cost of which is expected to be high. One missile could cost as much as NIS 3 million.

Times of Israel Amona: Peaceful Evacuation in Doubt If Court Nixes Delay Residents of the Amona outpost will consider cancelling an agreement to leave their homes peacefully if the High Court rejects a state request to delay the court-imposed evacuation slated for this week until February 2017, a spokesman said Tuesday. The government officially asked the High Court of Justice for a month-and-a-half delay in the evacuation on Tuesday, two days after it promised residents of the outpost to do so as part of a deal for them leave peacefully. Authorities are hoping the deal can prevent a repeat of the violence that followed the destruction of several permanent buildings in the outpost in 2006. “We are not obligated by the agreement,” Amona spokesman Ofer Inbar told The Times of Israel. “If they reject it, we will have to see what to do.” See also, “State Asks for 45 More Days to Evacuate Amona” (Jerusalem Post)

New York Times Russia, Iran, and Turkey Meet for Security Talks, Excluding US Russia, Iran and Turkey met in Moscow on Tuesday to work toward a political accord to end Syria’s nearly six-year war, leaving the US on the sidelines as the countries sought to drive the conflict in ways that serve their interests. Secretary of State John Kerry was not invited. Nor was the UN consulted. With pro-government forces having made critical gains on the ground, the new alignment and the absence of any Western powers at the table all but guarantee that President Bashar al-Assad will continue to rule Syria under any resulting agreement, despite President Obama’s declaration more than five years ago that Mr. Assad had lost legitimacy and had to be removed. See also, “Russia, Iran, Turkey Ready to Guarantee Syria Deal" (Times of Israel)

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Bloomberg – December 21, 2016 Israel Needs Its Arab Friends More Than U.S. Embassy Move By Eli Lake  For the last eight years the American president has approached the Jewish state the way a do- gooder deals with an alcoholic friend. You know the pose: Because we care so much about your long-term survival, we want to help you end your addiction to apartment construction in East Jerusalem.  To put it mildly, Donald Trump has a different perspective. It's not just that he has nominated his bankruptcy lawyer David Friedman, an enthusiast of greater Israel, to be his ambassador there. Nor is it the elimination of language about a "two state solution" in the Republican Party's platform for 2016. It's that the incoming president's administration is promising to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem after the election.  It's been the other way since the 1980s. Usually presidents promise to move the embassy in the campaign and break that promise while in office. Trump looks like he is going to keep his word. As Friedman said in a statement last week, he looks forward to conducting his official diplomatic business "from the U.S. embassy in Israel’s eternal capital, Jerusalem."  For many Trump supporters this is good news. Dayenu, as some might say. Congress has been on record since the 1990s endorsing a U.S. embassy in Jerusalem. Moving the embassy would help discredit those who seek to delegitimize Israel. This was Israeli ambassador Ron Dermer's argument Tuesday evening at an embassy Hannukah reception.  With all due respect to Ambassador Dermer, this is risky business. Jonathan Schanzer, the vice president for research at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies told me Tuesday before the ambassador's remarks: "I have heard from Israelis that any sudden moves on the U.S. position on Jerusalem would potentially precipitate a third intifada, disrupt the strategic ties between Jordan and Israel and cause a break in the quiet diplomacy with Saudi Arabia."  Dan Arbell, who served as Israel's deputy chief of mission in Washington from 2009 to 2012, also worries about the embassy move. He told me it risked making Israel's quiet relationships in the region more prickly. "I wouldn't go as far as saying it will be an end to the Jordanian or Egyptian peace agreement," he said. "But it will overshadow the increasing cooperation on the security side, and it will make it harder to come out of the closet with this cooperation, which is in Israel's interest." For supporters of the Oslo peace process, now in its 23rd year, moving the embassy would bring catastrophe. U.S. policy has held that the status of East Jerusalem, which Israel won in the 1967 Six Day War, should be determined through negotiations with the Palestinians. In 1980, Israel officially annexed East Jerusalem, declaring the unified city as its capital. Since then, its municipal boundaries have expanded.  Already many observers are predicting blowback. Sarah Yerkes, a former U.S. diplomat who worked at the State Department's bureau of Palestinian Affairs, said Monday at an event for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, "You could see an uprising from Palestinians, the Egyptians and the Jordanians."

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 Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian Authority's chief negotiator, said Monday such a move would result in his organization officially withdrawing recognition of Israel.  Now it should be noted that Erekat is always threatening to quit the peace process. Matthew Kalman, an Israel-based Journalist, helpfully compiled Erekat's previous threats along these lines. What's more, it's worth asking whether the Palestinians could get any angrier at Israel. During the Barack Obama presidency, Israelis have endured a "stabbing intifada" as well as waves of Palestinians committing arson and vehicular slaughter in the name of resistance. All the while, the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, has praised the killers in public as martyrs and heroes.  At the same time, Abbas has not ended security cooperation with Israel. When social media encouraged Palestinians to stab Jews at random, Abbas quietly dispatched his police to confiscate knives from high schools.  All of this gets to the particular predicament a sudden embassy move would pose to Israel. It's fair to ask how much worse things could get on the Palestinian street. Still, the Israelis have a lot to lose behind the scenes.  Part of this is because of the rise of Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia, who were bitter enemies for the first half-century of the Jewish State's existence, today are quiet partners in trying to check Iran's rise. The same is true with the United Arab Emirates. With Egypt and Jordan, Israel has peace treaties, which explicitly state that the status of Jerusalem should be determined through negotiations.  Arab diplomats in recent days have told me that they worry an embassy move would stoke violent protests in their own countries.  Part of this problem can be mitigated. Writing in the New York Sun, former State Department official Efraim Cohen sketched out how Trump could decide to call the U.S. consulate in West Jerusalem an "embassy," and avoid the messy process of actually constructing a new compound inside Israel's capital. If this move was coupled with a rhetorical commitment to the Palestinians, reiterating the U.S. position that Jerusalem's status should be negotiated, Trump and his new ambassador could thread the needle.  All of that said, is this worth the risk? To be sure, it has its upsides. Israel since its founding has fought a political war with most of the world just for recognition of its right to exist. A U.S. embassy in Jerusalem is a potent symbol that the world's most powerful democracy affirms that right without condition.  But it is nonetheless just a symbol. Today, Israel has tangible diplomatic opportunities in the region its founders could have never imagined. The Saudis work closely on security and intelligence challenges with a state it still officially calls, "the Zionist entity." Israel's relationships with Jordan and Egypt have never been better, despite the fact that the peace process is a dead letter.  If Trump wants to be a good friend to Israel, he will focus on how to bring these relationships out into the open. That will be harder to do if one of his first acts as president is to move the embassy to Jerusalem. 5

Eli Lake is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.

Summary: At the same time, Abbas has not ended security cooperation with Israel. When social media encouraged Palestinians to stab Jews at random, Abbas quietly dispatched his police to confiscate knives from high schools. All of this gets to the particular predicament a sudden embassy move would pose to Israel. It's fair to ask how much worse things could get on the Palestinian street. Still, the Israelis have a lot to lose behind the scenes. Part of this is because of the rise of Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia, who were bitter enemies for the first half- century of the Jewish State's existence, today are quiet partners in trying to check Iran's rise. The same is true with the United Arab Emirates. With Egypt and Jordan, Israel has peace treaties, which explicitly state that the status of Jerusalem should be determined through negotiations. Arab diplomats in recent days have told me that they worry an embassy move would stoke violent protests in their own countries.

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Al-Monitor – December 20, 2016 Rift Growing Between Israeli Arabs and Israeli Arab Party By Shlomi Eldar  The past week was one of the hardest time periods in the short history of the Arab Joint List, and especially for its chairman, Ayman Odeh. It all began on Dec. 16 when Adal Amar, the head of (the Communist Party faction within Hadash, which itself is part of the Joint List alliance), publicized a statement congratulating Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for conquering Aleppo. The statement generated a tempest even among the supporters of the Joint List. Two days later, it was revealed that member Basel Ghattas (of the Balad Party, also part of the Joint List) is suspected of smuggling cell phones to Palestinian security prisoners in the Israeli Ketziot jail; this, of course, delivered a significant blow to Odeh’s attempts at building bridges between Jews and Arabs. But an even more severe a problem from Odeh’s vantage point was that sections of the Arab sector also wondered aloud whether their Arab Knesset representatives were indeed serving the interests of , or whether their representatives had, instead, become a millstone around their necks.  There is no doubt that members of the Balad movement — one of the four parties that make up the Joint List — are viewed by the Arab public as the “bad boys” of the forced political union. The party’s founder, former Knesset member , even fled to Qatar in 2007 after coming under suspicion of transferring information to Hezbollah. Three Balad Knesset members today — Jamal Zahalka, and Basel Ghattas — have long since adopted a radical platform that differs greatly from the positions of the other Joint List members. Hardly a month goes by without a public storm initiated by one of the Balad members, who are responsible for creating more and more deep fissures in the Joint List, in the Arab sector and in Jewish-Arab relations. In an attempt to maintain the Joint List’s political unity, Arab Knesset members from other factions feel compelled to toe Balad’s line.  Lack of space prevents me from enumerating the list of controversies provoked by Balad’s members in the Knesset and outside it. In the past year (June 29), Zoabi called Israel Defense Force soldiers “murderers” from the Knesset podium. In this way, she helped create the public atmosphere that facilitated the ratification of the Dismissal Law. This law allows Knesset members to oust a fellow member from the Knesset after winning a special majority vote and after a relatively complicated process. Meanwhile, the entire Joint List felt obligated to stand at Zoabi’s side — although behind closed doors, many of them admitted that they felt that Zoabi had crossed a red line.  Ghattas also forced Joint List members to close ranks with him. On Sept. 14, while former President Shimon Peres was fighting for his life in the hospital, Ghattas publicized a malicious Facebook post in which he wrote, “Let us remember his true essence as a tyrant. He was directly responsible for various atrocities and war crimes which he committed against us. … He is completely covered with our blood.” This post forced all the Arab Knesset members to later boycott Peres’ funeral, thus leading to a large public protest within Arab society and causing an additional rupture between Jews and Arabs.  But now, so it seems, Ghattas has become embroiled in something far more serious than an infuriating statement. 7

 He is under suspicion of smuggling 12 cell phones to Palestinian prisoners, one of whom is life prisoner Walid Daka, murderer of soldier Moshe Tamam (August 1984). If the suspicions against him are confirmed, this act of an Arab Knesset member will inflict great harm on the Arab citizens of the State of Israel. True, it would be a criminal act of one Knesset member out of 13 members of the Joint List. However, the Jewish public would grasp this as incontestable proof of the veracity of the accusations coming from the right (including from Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman) that Arab citizens are not loyal to the State of Israel. And so, right-wing Knesset members have already asked Knesset speaker to conduct body searches of the Arab Knesset members prior to entering Knesset chambers, claiming that they might try to smuggle in demolition charges.  Clearly, these accusations of disloyalty and treason have not a grain of truth in them. Instead, Odeh and fellow Knesset members Ahmad Tibi, Aida Toma-Sliman, Yusuf Jibrin and others are fighting for their right to preserve their Palestinian identity while remaining faithful citizens of the State of Israel.  As aforementioned, the Ghattas incident was not the only bombshell visited on the Joint List in recent days. While atrocious photographs were streaming from Syrian Aleppo showing mass murders of civilians by the hands of the Syrian army, Amar found time to congratulate Assad. This statement by Maki's secretary-general in turn stirred up the Hadash faction and turned large swaths of the Arab sector against him; all these viewed Amar’s statement as support of the acts of a mass murderer.  “I have been a Hadash member for three decades,” an Umm al-Fahm resident told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. “I have never been as ashamed as I was this past week. Assad murdered hundreds of thousands in cold blood; he operated planes and tanks and heavy weapons to kill his citizens, only to protect his regime. Suddenly, along comes the Hadash senior official to congratulate him. How does he dare speak in my name?”  Amar’s statement forced Odeh to release a second, moderating statement in his attempt to tone down the rhetoric and conduct damage control. Odeh called Assad "a tyrant,’’ and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) and the Islamic State “savage groups.” The Joint List chairman also said that it is inhumane to take the side of these forces of darkness. However, the public damage to the party had been done.  A protest rally, organized by the anti-racism Tag Meir movement, took place Dec. 18 in Israel against the carnage in Syria. Hundreds of people formed a human chain between the US and Russian embassies in Tel Aviv, calling on the world powers to put an end to the massacres. They held photos of dead children and pictures of Assad with blood-stained hands. In the past, Hadash activists would take part in demonstrations such as these; Hadash is a socialist party that worked hard over the years to show the world that it is a social rights-humanist movement struggling for social justice. But this time, Hadash's voice was muted; its activists have vanished. Therefore, those who claim that Arab Knesset members inflict damage on their constituents and create deep ruptures between Jews and Arabs are not far from the truth.

Shlomi Eldar is a columnist for Al-Monitor’s Israel Pulse covering the Palestinian Authority and Gaza.

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Summary: There is no doubt that members of the Balad movement — one of the four parties that make up the Joint List — are viewed by the Arab public as the “bad boys” of the forced political union. The party’s founder, former Knesset member Azmi Bishara, even fled to Qatar in 2007 after coming under suspicion of transferring information to Hezbollah. Three Balad Knesset members today — Jamal Zahalka, Haneen Zoabi and Basel Ghattas — have long since adopted a radical platform that differs greatly from the positions of the other Joint List members. Hardly a month goes by without a public storm initiated by one of the Balad members, who are responsible for creating more and more deep fissures in the Joint List, in the Arab sector and in Jewish-Arab relations. In an attempt to maintain the Joint List’s political unity, Arab Knesset members from other factions feel compelled to toe Balad’s line.

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