P a c i f i c F o r u m C S I S Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations edited by Ralph A. Cossa Eun Jung Cahill Che 3rd Quarter 2000 Vol. 2, No. 3 October 2000 www.csis.org/pacfor/ccejournal.html Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia- Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum's work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia-Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region's leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum's programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects' findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work; it is chaired by Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. Comparative Connections A Quarterly E-Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Edited by Ralph A. Cossa and Eun Jung Cahill Che Volume 2, Number 3 Third Quarter 2000 Honolulu, Hawaii October 2000 Pacific Forum CSIS Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the Pacific Forum CSIS operates as the autonomous Asia-Pacific arm of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Founded in 1975, the thrust of the Forum's work is to help develop cooperative policies in the Asia-Pacific region through debate and analyses undertaken with the region's leaders in the academic, government, and corporate arenas. The Forum's programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic/business, and oceans policy issues. It collaborates with a network of more than 30 research institutes around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating its projects' findings and recommendations to opinion leaders, governments, and publics throughout the region. An international Board of Governors guides the Pacific Forum’s work; it is chaired by Brent Scowcroft, former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. The Forum is funded by grants from foundations, corporations, individuals, and governments, the latter providing a small percentage of the forum’s $1.2 million annual budget. The Forum’s studies are objective and nonpartisan and it does not engage in classified or proprietary work. 2 Comparative Connections A Quarterly Electronic Journal on East Asian Bilateral Relations Bilateral relationships in East Asia have long been important to regional peace and stability, but in the post-Cold War environment, these relationships have taken on a new strategic rationale as countries pursue multiple ties, beyond those with the U.S., to realize complex political, economic, and security interests. How one set of bilateral interests affects a country’s other key relations is becoming more fluid and complex, and at the same time is becoming more central to the region’s overall strategic compass. Comparative Connections, Pacific Forum’s quarterly electronic journal on East Asian bilateral relations edited by Ralph A. Cossa and Eun Jung Cahill Che, was created in response to this unique environment. Comparative Connections provides timely and insightful analyses on key bilateral relationships in the region, including those involving the U.S. We cover 12 key bilateral relationships that are critical for the region. While we recognize the importance of other states in the region, our intention is to keep the core of the e-journal to a manageable and readable length. Because our project cannot give full attention to each of the relationships in Asia, coverage of U.S./ASEAN and China/ASEAN countries consists of a summary of individual bilateral relationships, and may shift focus from country to country as events warrant. Other bilateral relationships may be tracked periodically (such as various bilateral relationships with North Korea or Australia’s significant relationships) as events dictate. Our aim is to inform and interpret the significant issues driving political, economic and security affairs of the U.S. and East Asian relations by an ongoing analysis of events in each key bilateral relationship. The reports, written by a variety of experts in Asian affairs, focus on political/security developments, but economic issues are also addressed. Each essay is accompanied by a chronology of significant events occurring between the states in question during the quarter. An overview section, written by Pacific Forum, places bilateral relationships in a broader context of regional relations. By providing value-added interpretative analyses, as well as factual accounts of key events, the e- journal illuminates patterns in Asian bilateral relations that may appear as isolated events and better defines the impact bilateral relationships have upon one another and on regional security. 3 Table of Contents Regional Overview: ……………………………………………………………………...9 Multilateralism Sputters Along, as North Korea Continues to Grab the Spotlight by Ralph A. Cossa, Executive Director, Pacific Forum CSIS Multilateral gatherings during the past quarter--the ASEAN Regional Forum, the G-8 Okinawa Summit, and the UN Millennium Summit--served more to showcase key bilateral relationships and North Korea’s continuing coming out than to promote multilateralism. In fact, North Korea managed to grab a portion of the spotlight at the two summits without even attending. Meanwhile, preoccupation with Mid-East events limited U.S. participation in the two Asian meetings and raised continued doubts about U.S. interest in multilateralism. Within the region, North-South Korea rapprochement continues, with the emphasis still more on show than substance. Outside the spotlight, ASEAN Plus Three (Japan, China, and South Korea) took on a new dimension; its first foreign ministers meeting may portend a shift in emphasis from economics to a broader agenda. U.S.-Japan Relations: Small but Important Steps……………………………………23 by Michael Jonathan Green, Olin Fellow for Asia Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations After a frustrating inability to resolve even minor irritants in the U.S.-Japan alliance last quarter, Tokyo and Washington made some small but important breakthroughs on issues related to defense planning, financial support for U.S. bases, and Okinawa. President Clinton’s decision to step out of intense Middle East peace negotiations to attend the Okinawa G-8 Summit certainly helped, as did the first bilateral defense and foreign ministers’ meeting in two years. The success on the security side was somewhat offset by confrontations over whaling, telecommunications, and steel. Absent a larger strategic framework for the relationship, these smaller issues continue to tug the alliance back and forth. In anticipation of a new administration, a growing number of U.S. policy makers and analysts are beginning to focus on strategic goals for the alliance. The question remains whether Tokyo can do the same. U.S.-China Relations:…………………………………………………………………..30 Clinton and Jiang Hail PNTR passage, but Agree on Little Else by Bonnie S. Glaser, Consultant on Asian Affairs The 20-year old practice of annually reviewing China’s trade status ended with the U.S. Senate’s passage of Permanent Normal Trade Relations for China, paving the way for China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and boosting Sino-U.S. economic ties. Presidents Clinton and Jiang met at the UN Millennium Summit and reviewed the course of their bilateral relationship. As usual, they were at odds on many issues, including human rights and religious freedom in China, Taiwan, and U.S. missile defense programs. U.S.-Chinese defense ties advanced with Defense Secretary Cohen’s visit to China, where he concentrated on engaging in strategic dialogue with military and civilian 4 leaders. Sino-U.S. talks on arms control and non-proliferation resumed after a 14 month hiatus, but the two sides failed to narrow their differences on missile proliferation. U.S.-Korea Relations: Military Ties Remain Vital despite North-South Thaw…….38 by Stephen Noerper, Visiting Professor, National University of Mongolia Following the historic June summit between South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, both Seoul and Pyongyang sought to further advance and solidify international support for gradual integration. The United States offered early and frequent support for ongoing inter-Korean rapprochement, but the rapid progress in talks between the two Koreas left some U.S. strategists seeking to catch up to Seoul’s advances. The quarter had bookends of U.S. Defense Secretary Cohen underscoring the importance of a continued U.S. troop presence and calling for added vigilance against North Korean military activity. Both U.S. and ROK strategists called for a renewed and improved alliance that takes into account the thaw on the Korean Peninsula. U.S.-Russia Relations: The Perils of Putin……………………………………………44 by Toby Trister Gati, Senior International Adviser,